Astros Continue To Seek Left-Handed Outfielder In Paredes Talks
Astros pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training tomorrow. The team’s roster remains jumbled as camp is soon to get underway. They’re still heavily right-handed and have an arguable surplus of infielders with an unimposing outfield mix.
Trading an infielder, especially Isaac Paredes, has been the most speculated avenue to balancing the roster. General manager Dana Brown has repeatedly said the Astros aren’t motivated to do so. Brown has pointed to the impact that Paredes had on Houston’s lineup before he suffered a significant hamstring strain midway through his first season with the club. The Astros are only a year removed from acquiring him as an instrumental piece in their return for Kyle Tucker, feeling that his pull-heavy approach from the right side would play well with the short left field at Houston’s Daikin Park. That proved to be the case, as Paredes hit 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 slash in 102 games.
Even as team personnel have struck a public tone that they’re happy with their infield depth, it seems they’ve been more on board with the trade route behind the scenes. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported last week that the Astros were discussing Paredes with upwards of five teams, including the Pirates and Red Sox. Rome wrote in a column at The Athletic this morning that they’ve intensified efforts to find a match on the trade front. Houston continues to pursue a left-handed hitting outfielder as part of any potential return, Rome adds.
A handful of recent moves could make that less likely. They reportedly kicked around a three-team framework that would have involved acquiring Brendan Donovan from St. Louis. That didn’t come to fruition and he’s now a Mariner. The Red Sox have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa and traded for Caleb Durbin from the Brewers, which seemingly fills out their infield. Pittsburgh signed Marcell Ozuna to a $12MM free agent contract to add a right-handed power bat. They’re still looking to upgrade over Jared Triolo at third base, but it’s unclear if they’re interested in accommodating Paredes’ $9.35MM salary.
Speculatively, the Brewers may be the best on-paper fit after the Durbin trade. Milwaukee isn’t likely to part with Sal Frelick, but center fielder Garrett Mitchell or corner bat Tyler Black are left-handed hitters who could play the outfield in Houston. The Twins have an uncertain corner infield mix and some expendable lefty outfield bats (e.g. Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach). The Guardians have a heavily left-handed first base and outfield mix and desperately need a right-handed power bat. They could offer someone like George Valera if they’re willing to reinvest any of the money they saved by restructuring José Ramírez’s contract into the 2026 payroll.
The Padres are looking for another corner infielder and could certainly use Paredes at first base, though they don’t have any lefty-hitting outfielders of significance to offer. (Jackson Merrill obviously isn’t getting traded.) That’d also be a drawback in talks with Pittsburgh even if they’re willing to take on the money. The Astros aren’t taking the Bryan Reynolds contract. Pittsburgh probably wouldn’t view Paredes as enough of an upgrade over Spencer Horwitz to relinquish five years of control on Horwitz even if the Astros felt he could play a reasonable left field. There’s always the possibility of looping in a third team to try to balance value, but the direct trade scenarios involving Paredes are tougher to align than they were a week or two ago.
Trading Paredes would create some payroll flexibility for a Houston team that is right up against a $244MM luxury tax line that ownership seemingly doesn’t want to cross. If they don’t find a trade partner (or anyone willing to pick up a notable portion of the Christian Walker contract in a salary dump), he’d project as a multi-positional infielder behind Walker, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Yordan Alvarez will get the majority of the at-bats at designated hitter.
Pirates, Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes
The Pirates and Red Sox are two of “at least five teams” discussing Isaac Paredes in trade talks with the Astros, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal. This is the first time Pittsburgh has been linked to Paredes, though the two-time All-Star has been known to be a Red Sox target for much of the winter.
Boston’s quest for infield help has been one of their primary offseason storylines, with such names as Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Nico Hoerner, Brendan Donovan and many others reportedly considered as free agent or trade targets. In Donovan’s case, Rome and Rosenthal report that the Sox had some negotiations with the Astros and Cardinals about a three-team trade that would’ve sent Paredes to Boston, Donovan to Houston, and presumably a multi-player prospect package to the rebuilding Cardinals.
Instead, St. Louis opted for another three-team trade with the Mariners and Rays, with Donovan landing in Seattle. The breakdown of what the Cardinals might’ve gotten from the Astros or Red Sox isn’t known, but the Donovan deal with Tampa and the M’s netted St. Louis a recent first-round pitching prospect (Jurrangelo Cijntje), two other prospects (Tai Peete, Colton Ledbetter) and two 2026 draft picks from Competitive Balance Round B. The CBR picks are the only types of draft picks that can be traded, so the fact that the Rays and Mariners had such available selections and the Sox and Astros didn’t could have quite possibly been a factor in the Cards’ decision to accept that deal over the other three-team proposal.
Had the Cardinals been amenable to what the Red Sox and Astros offered, the deal would’ve checked off a couple of major boxes for the two AL teams. Paredes would’ve stepped right in as Boston’s everyday third baseman, adding right-handed balance to the Sox lineup and moving Marcelo Mayer into the unsettled second base mix. Donovan is known for his multi-positional versatility, but he would’ve likely been Houston’s everyday left fielder, with the Astros starting infield then settling as Carlos Correa at third base, Jeremy Pena at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base, and Christian Walker at first base. Yordan Alvarez is set for regular DH at-bats and neither Alvarez or Altuve are well-suited to left field work, so having Paredes in the fold creates something of a logjam for playing time if everyone is healthy.
Houston GM Dana Brown has repeatedly said that the Astros are fine with their infield situation, though this could be some gamesmanship at play, as recent reports suggested that the Astros may indeed still be looking to deal from their infield surplus. Rome and Rosenthal write that Paredes and Walker are both being floated in trade discussions, and “Paredes is more likely to be dealt than Walker, whose cumbersome contract and limited no-trade clause make it more difficult to move him.”
The three-year, $60MM free agent deal Walker signed last winter contains a six-team no-trade clause. Beyond the money and the no-trade protection, Walker is also entering his age-35 season, and he hit only .238/.297/.421 over 640 plate appearances (translating to a 99 wRC+) in his first season in Houston. Paredes missed almost two months of the 2025 season due to a hamstring injury but was terrific when he did play, batting .254/.352/.458 across 438 PA.
It isn’t an ideal situation for the Astros that one of their better and less-expensive players might be their most logical trade candidate. However, because Houston’s other infielders seem less likely to be moved for a variety of reasons, dealing Paredes might be the best way for Houston to both alleviate the infield surplus, and add a much-needed left-handed bat to the outfield.
As Rome and Rosenthal note, the most obvious way for the Astros and Red Sox to address their twin needs would simply be to make a deal with each other, since Boston has a plethora of left-handed hitting outfielders. Jarren Duran has been viewed as the outfielder the Sox may be most willing to move, though Rome/Rosenthal write that the Astros prefer Wilyer Abreu over Duran, in part because of price. Abreu doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until next winter, while Duran is making $7.7MM in 2026 and his salaries will continue to rise over his remaining two arb years.
It remains to be seen if the Astros and Red Sox could finally line up on a deal themselves, or if perhaps another third party could get involved to help facilitate a trade. There’s also the possibility that Houston could move Paredes elsewhere entirely, given the widespread interest in his services.
The Pirates and Astros already joined forces on a prominent trade back in December, when the two clubs and the Rays engaged in a three-team swap. The Buccos traded from their rotation depth in moving Mike Burrows to Houston in that deal, while Pittsburgh bolstered its lineup by acquiring Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum. Between that trade, the Ryan O’Hearn signing, and the deal with the Red Sox that brought Jhostynxon Garcia into the outfield picture, the Pirates have made a priority of adding some much-needed hitting help to the roster.
Landing Paredes would arguably be the biggest move of all for the Pirates’ offense, and it would fill a hole at third base. Jared Triolo is Pittsburgh’s projected starter at the hot corner, and while Triolo is a plus defender, he has hit only .221/.303/.334 over his last 822 PA in 2024-25. In terms of how the Bucs could meet Houston’s needs, the Pirates have multiple outfielders who are either lefty swingers or switch-hitters, yet none seem like exactly a fit. Oneil Cruz likely isn’t going anywhere, Bryan Reynolds is probably too pricey for the Astros, and neither Mangum or Jack Suwinski would provide clear offensive help.
What other teams could speculatively be in on Paredes? Many contenders are already set at the corner infield slots, though if Paredes is viewed as an upgrade over an incumbent, a deal could be swung with a third team involved. On paper, the Brewers, Tigers, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Athletics stand out as contenders or would-be contenders who could stand to improve at at least one of the first or third base positions.
Astros Notes: Paredes, Walker, Smith, McCullers
The Astros have seemingly had too many infielders all winter but general manager Dana Brown has consistently downplayed the possibility of a trade, doing so again this week. Privately, the club may be less certain about holding everyone. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that some people within the team are questioning the viability of carrying everyone on the roster and that a trade is becoming more realistic.
Last year, the Astros had Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first, at least for the first half of the season. Paredes suffered a significant hamstring strain in July, which prompted the Astros to acquire Carlos Correa from the Twins. Going into 2026, they project to have Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base, Correa at third and then either Walker or Paredes at first.
Putting Paredes at the keystone and using Altuve in the outfield is generally seen as less than ideal. Altuve was bad in the outfield last year. Paredes hasn’t played second base since 2023 and there’s skepticism about how viable he would be if put back there again, though the Astros will have him do some drills there during camp.
Most of the rumors have therefore involved the Astros trading either Walker or Paredes and having the other cover first base. Walker is coming off a bit of a down year and is owed $20MM annually for another two years, making him hard to trade, especially since he’s about to turn 35. Paredes would have value but his lower salary is appealing to an Astros club looking to limbo under the luxury tax. He’ll make $9.35MM this year, less than half of Walker. He’ll get a bump in 2027 but would still be well under Walker’s $20MM salary.
If a trade doesn’t come together, manager Joe Espada would be left to find playing time for everyone by scattering off-days around the group. Using the designated hitter spot will be a challenge because the club wants to have Yordan Alvarez in there as often as possible. Though Brown has downplayed the rumors over and over again, there’s still time for a trade to come together.
Rome also notes that the Astros plan to give Cam Smith some center field reps in spring training. Smith came up as a third baseman but the Astros moved him to right field last year so that he would have a better path to playing time. He earned a big league job and showed some promise but his .236/.312/.358 batting line was subpar.
The bar for passable offense is a bit lower in center field, where teams often prioritize defense. Smith graded out well in right field last year, getting credited with 12 Defensive Runs Saved and one above par by Outs Above Average. His sprint speed was ranked in the 95th percentile last year, so he should have the wheels to move to center. The Astros considered some center field time for Smith last year but he didn’t get any game time there.
If Smith can hack it up the middle, that could open up a few possibilities for the club. They have been looking to add a left-handed bat to the lineup and could perhaps slot someone into right field. They have Jesús Sánchez on the roster but he struggled late last year and has been in some trade rumors. Center fielder Jake Meyers has also been in trade rumors and perhaps the club could feel more comfortable pulling the trigger there if Smith seems viable in the middle spot.
Turning to the pitching staff, Espada noted this week that Lance McCullers Jr. would be built up a starter in camp, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. McCullers was a starter for most of last year but was moved to the bullpen in August. Injuries led to him missing the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was back on the mound last year but his velocity was down and he posted a 6.51 earned run average on the year.
Whether he can turn things around and get back on track is anyone’s guess. He will be further removed from his lengthy injury odyssey but the results in 2025 weren’t encouraging. The Astros may have a six-man rotation for a decent amount of 2026. McCullers projects to be in there with Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss, with guys like Nate Pearson, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon and Kai-Wei Teng also on the roster. Over the course of the season, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter will be trying to come back from Tommy John surgeries performed in 2025. McCullers is going into the final season of the extension he signed in 2021 and will be paid $17MM this year.
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Astros, Jack Winkler Agree To Minor League Contract
The Astros are in agreement with infielder Jack Winkler on a minor league contract, according to the MLB.com transaction log. The 27-year-old elected minor league free agency after being outrighted by the Marlins at the end of last season. He’s represented by the Ball Players Agency.
Winkler was a 10th-round draftee by the Athletics in 2021. The University of San Francisco product played four seasons in the A’s system, peaking in Double-A. Miami grabbed him in the Triple-A phase of last offseason’s Rule 5 draft. Winkler got a few looks as the final player on Clayton McCullough’s bench over the course of the season.
He appeared in 14 games, starting four of them in the middle infield. Winkler went 4-16 with a stolen base and committed two errors in 44 1/3 innings of defensive work. He otherwise spent the season at Triple-A Jacksonville, where he hit .225/.299/.333 with a 28% strikeout rate in his first action at the level. Winkler was an asset on the bases in the minors, stealing 25 bags in 76 games without getting thrown out. He played mostly third base in Triple-A with sporadic action up the middle.
Houston is likely to start Winkler back in Triple-A as a right-handed infield depth piece. He has been a below-average hitter throughout his minor league career, so it’s unlikely he’ll be in the running for an Opening Day roster spot even if the Astros trade an infielder during Spring Training. Winkler has options remaining and can bounce between Houston and Triple-A Sugar Land if he earns a 40-man roster spot at any point.
Astros Outright J.P. France
The Astros announced that right-hander J.P. France cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land. He had been designated for assignment a week ago when Houston acquired Kai-Wei Teng from the Giants. France will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.
France, 31 in April, had an exciting major league debut a few years back. He gave the Astros 136 1/3 innings in 2023, allowing 3.83 earned runs per nine. However, the past two seasons have been mostly lost. Shoulder problems plagued him early in 2024 and eventually required surgery, which put him on the shelf for most of 2025. He only made seven big league appearances over those two seasons. He was healthy by the end of 2025 but posted a 6.59 ERA in Triple-A.
The lengthy injury situation and poor results last year bumped France off the roster. He still has one option remaining but the other 29 clubs still passed on the chance to give him a 40-man roster spot. Players have the right to reject an outright assignment if they have at least three years of service or a previous career outright but France doesn’t qualify on either account. That means he sticks with the Astros as non-roster depth.
Houston goes into 2026 with a rotation that looks to have a lot of talent but also question marks behind Hunter Brown. They will hope to get more from Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr., who each had underwhelming seasons in 2025 after lengthy injury absences. Tatsuya Imai will be making his major league debut after years pitching in Japan. Ryan Weiss is coming to North America after a decent stretch in South Korea. Mike Burrows still has less than 100 big league innings.
France will try to position himself to get the call if the guys in that group struggle or get hurt. He will have a steep path back to a roster spot, however, as the Astros have Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon and Teng on the roster as optionable rotation depth. Over the course of the season, some guys will get hurt but Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter will be working back from surgeries performed last year.
Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images
Astros GM Dana Brown Discusses Infield Outlook
Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this afternoon at the team’s media luncheon. As he has throughout the offseason, the GM downplayed the possibility of trading from his infield while noting that they’re still looking for ways to add a left-handed bat.
“If we can trade a guy to potentially get a left-handed bat or something like that, we’ll consider it,” Brown told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). “But I think right now we have a really good infield. We do have the depth. We have a long season, 162. We have some veterans that we’d like to give some breaks during the course of a season, and to have this depth is good.”
That’s the tone Brown has struck all winter. He said as early as the GM Meetings that they weren’t motivated to trade Christian Walker and had no interest in moving Isaac Paredes. He again spoke about those corner infielders today. “Right now, both of them are still part of our roster. We have plans for both of them to play. So right now, the plan is for both of them to be there,” Brown said.
Walker and Paredes are in very different spots in terms of trade value. Walker is signed for $20MM annually for his age 35-36 seasons. He’s coming off a .238/.297/.421 showing with a drop in his defensive grades in his first year in Houston. The Astros would likely need to pay down more than half the contract to move Walker. He’s unlikely to fetch a significant left-handed bat no matter how much of the money they cover. Walker did connect on 27 homers and had an alright second half, so the Astros probably don’t want to move him solely to save a fraction of the contract.
Paredes would have much bigger appeal. He’s making $9.35MM after reaching an arbitration settlement this afternoon. The Astros don’t have an obvious spot for him in the starting infield after reacquiring Carlos Correa to play third base while Paredes was injured last summer. Correa obviously has ample shortstop experience but isn’t going to play there often on a team with Jeremy Peña. Houston plans to keep Jose Altuve primarily at second base. Manager Joe Espada has said all winter that they want to keep Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter as much as possible.
That leaves Paredes as a multi-positional infielder for now, though all it takes is one injury to change that. They’d find ways to get his bat into the lineup on a regular basis even if everyone’s healthy. Walker, Altuve and Correa are all in their 30s and could benefit from more rest than the team was able to provide last season. Paredes is coming off a significant hamstring strain that cost him most of the second half, so early-season off days wouldn’t be the worst thing for him either.
The Red Sox are the team that has been most frequently tied to Paredes in trade rumors. They haven’t replaced Alex Bregman in the infield and have a pair of controllable lefty-hitting outfielders, Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, who would fit Houston’s biggest lineup need. It’d be a surprise to see the Sox part with either Duran or Abreu for Paredes — at least not a one-for-one deal. Paredes has the shortest window of contractual control among that trio. Boston also reportedly prefers Marcelo Mayer at the hot corner and is ideally looking to add a plus defensive second baseman, which isn’t Paredes’ specialty. Even if there’s a workable framework, it’d probably require Houston sending more talent to the Sox to even the package.
Former first-round pick Brice Matthews is likely headed back to Triple-A to begin the year. He hit 17 homers and stole 41 bases while batting .260/.371/.458 at the level a year ago. Matthews struck out at an alarming 28% rate, however, and he fanned in 20 of his first 47 MLB plate appearances. Baseball America grades him as the #3 prospect in a weak Houston farm system. He still has a pair of minor league options but could theoretically be a trade chip if the Astros don’t deal any of their veteran infielders.
Brown noted that the Astros are still evaluating free agent possibilities to add a lefty bat as well. They’re within a few million dollars of the $244MM luxury tax threshold which owner Jim Crane is reportedly reluctant to surpass. Even a role player like Mike Tauchman or Adam Frazier could put them too close to that mark to leave the front office with enough space for in-season additions. Maybe there’s a workable deal for a pre-arbitration lefty hitter who could be squeezed out by another club. Daniel Schneemann, Robert Hassell III or Yanquiel Fernández (the latter of whom should currently be on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Rockies) are a few speculative options who’d likely be available at a minimal cost.
Blue Jays Have Continued Interest In Framber Valdez
The Blue Jays remain interested in top free agent starter Framber Valdez, report Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Toronto reportedly met with Valdez at the GM Meetings back in early November. That predated their seven-year, $210MM contract with Dylan Cease, so it was hardly a given that the Jays were still involved.
Valdez is arguably the last impact player available on the open market. He’s certainly the highest-upside player remaining. There’s a decent supply of unsigned starting pitching, but most other players fit in the middle or back of the rotation. That includes Zac Gallen, the only other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Valdez is at least a high-end #2 starter and has ace potential.
The southpaw finished top 10 in Cy Young voting each season from 2022-24. He looked on that pace through the All-Star Break last year, turning in a 2.75 earned run average over 19 starts. Things went off the rails in the second half, as Valdez surrendered a 5.20 ERA over his final 12 starts. He also had the much publicized cross-up incident with third catcher César Salazar, as he came under fire for not showing much immediate concern after hitting Salazar in the chest with a fastball. Astros officials maintained they did not believe Valdez intentionally crossed the catcher up, and Salazar did his best to downplay the situation publicly.
In any case, Valdez hit the market coming off arguably his worst two-month stretch in years. He’s entering his age-32 season, an age at which five-plus year deals for free agent starting pitchers are rare. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only pitchers at 32 or older to sign for five years within the past decade. It’s not clear what Valdez sought at the beginning of the offseason, but it’s generally not a great omen for players’ markets if they’re unsigned into February. A short-term deal with opt-outs probably isn’t as appealing for Valdez as it would be for a younger free agent.
The Jays already run six deep in the rotation with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce and José Berríos. They’re broadly involved on every top free agent, so it’s possible they’re circling back to see if Valdez’s market has dropped to a level at which they feel the value is too good to ignore. Bieber has battled some elbow fatigue. Yesavage had some injury questions in college and just completed his first full professional season. Ponce is something of an unknown coming back from Korea, though the Jays wouldn’t have guaranteed him $30MM if they didn’t think he could be an effective starter.
Toronto could certainly justify taking this group into the season, but they’re evidently still kicking around rotation possibilities. Heyman said on an MLB Network appearance this afternoon that the Jays have some amount of interest in bringing Max Scherzer back. That’d obviously be a much cheaper move than even a short-term deal for Valdez, but Scherzer isn’t as clear of an upgrade over Toronto’s back-end arms.
RosterResource calculates the Jays’ luxury tax payroll around $310MM. That’s already a franchise record and lands them in the top tier of penalization. The Jays are near the Yankees and Phillies to round out a clear top five in projected spending behind the Dodgers and Mets. Signing Valdez would probably push them close to $340MM in CBT commitments, which would take them ahead of the Yankees and Philadelphia. They’d pay a 90% tax on the average annual value of any further free agent contracts. A hypothetical $30MM salary for Valdez would add another $27MM to their tax bill and amount to a $57MM investment overall.
Valdez comes attached to draft compensation, though that penalty isn’t as severe for the Jays because they already signed Cease. Toronto punted their second-round pick and their compensatory pick for Bo Bichette (after the fourth round) to add Cease. They’d give up their third and fifth rounders for Valdez, but those are each outside the top 100 overall.
Houston paid the luxury tax last year, so they’ll only receive a compensation pick after round four once Valdez signs elsewhere. That’s all but inevitable, as they’ve never seemed interested in meeting the southpaw’s asking price on a free agent deal. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits team personnel from explicitly saying they’re not pursuing specific players, but Houston GM Dana Brown reiterated this afternoon that the Astros “haven’t had any conversations lately” with the pitcher’s camp (video via Jason Bristol of KHOU 11 News).
Yainer Diaz Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Astros
Yainer Diaz won his arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Francys Romero. The catcher, a PRIME client, will be paid a $4.5MM salary instead of the team’s $3MM filing figure.
Diaz earns a strong payday in his first trip through the arbitration process. The benefit of the win goes beyond the extra $1.5MM he’ll make than if he’d lost the hearing. It also sets a higher baseline for his final two years. The process is designed for players’ salaries to climb as they get closer to free agency, so there’ll be compounding benefits to today’s result.
The 27-year-old Diaz is one of the better catchers in the sport. He’s a career .279/.305/.454 hitter in nearly 1600 plate appearances. Baseball Reference has valued him around three wins above replacement in each of his first three seasons. He has topped 20 doubles in each and is coming off his second 20-homer campaign. Diaz hit .256/.284/.417 with 20 longballs and 70 runs driven in across 143 games a year ago.
That included a career-high 111 starts behind the plate, plus 24 as a designated hitter. Diaz caught the seventh-most innings in MLB. They’ll need him to take a similarly heavy workload now that high-end backup Victor Caratini departed to sign a two-year deal with Minnesota. César Salazar is expected to step into the backup role.
A $1.5MM isn’t a huge difference for a team in isolation, though it takes on a little more importance for the Astros than it would for most clubs. RosterResource estimated their luxury tax payroll within the $238-240MM range depending on the hearing result. Ownership reportedly wants to remain below the $244MM base tax threshold, so this could have a modest impact on the front office’s midseason flexibility on the trade front.
Today was a strong start for the players in arbitration. Orioles righty Kyle Bradish also won his case, pushing players to 2-0 thus far. The Diaz and Bradish hearings took place yesterday. Dylan Lee and Edwin Uceta had hearings last week, though their results are being held until other comparable cases are decided. According to The Associated Press, the Blue Jays had their hearing with left-hander Eric Lauer this afternoon, though that ruling is also expected to be held for a later date. Tomorrow is the biggest date of the arbitration class, as the Tigers and Tarik Skubal are set to present their cases with a record $13MM gap between their respective filing figures.
Astros, Isaac Paredes Avoid Arbitration
1:37pm: There’s also a 2027 club option on the deal worth $13.35MM, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. If Paredes finishes top ten in MVP voting, the club option converts to a mutual option. Even if the club/mutual option is eventually not picked up, Paredes will still be under club control for 2027 via arbitration. Most teams have a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning they won’t negotiate one-year deals after the filing deadline. Most post-deadline agreement have an option tacked on to nominally adhere to this policy.
12:13pm: The Astros have avoided an arbitration hearing with infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The two parties settled on a one-year deal worth $9.35MM, landing right at the midpoint of the team’s $8.75MM submission and the $9.95MM sum submitted by Paredes’ camp at CAA. Houston and catcher Yainer Diaz had their arbitration hearing yesterday, per the Associated Press. A result is expected today.
Paredes, 27 in a few weeks, came to Houston as part of last winter’s Kyle Tucker blockbuster and enjoyed a solid year in the Astros’ infield. He missed nearly two months due to a hamstring injury but still popped 20 homers while batting .254/.352/.458 over 438 plate appearances when healthy.
While Paredes was on the shelf, Houston reacquired Carlos Correa in a deadline salary dump deal with the Twins. The ‘Stros installed Correa at the hot corner in deference to standout shortstop Jeremy Pena. Since Paredes was sidelined into late September, the Astros didn’t have to deal much with the sudden glut of position players they had, but that won’t be the case heading into 2026.
Paredes appears to be a man without a position. Correa and Pena will again man the left side of the infield. The left field experiment for Jose Altuve didn’t prove all that fruitful, and Altuve is expected back at second base for the bulk of 2026. Christian Walker‘s first year as an Astro was a disappointment, but he’s signed for two more years and owed another $40MM, so he’ll be back at first base. Yordan Alvarez will see occasional time in left field but will still take the majority of the Astros’ DH at-bats. Prospect Brice Matthews, a natural middle infielder, will likely be pushed to the outfield by the infield logjam.
All of that has led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade, though general manager Dana Brown has said repeatedly that he doesn’t feel obligated to trade from the group. Were there any interest in the remainder of Walker’s deal, perhaps that’d change things, but other clubs have understandably been unwilling to take on that $40MM on the heels of a down season for the 35-year-old.
While there’s no immediate spot for regular at-bats for Paredes, that doesn’t necessarily matter. It takes all of one injury for him to have an everyday spot in the lineup, after all, and even if the entire group stays healthy, he can play fairly regularly by spelling Correa at third, Walker at first, Altuve at second and Alvarez at DH. Correa and Alvarez, in particular, have lengthy injury histories and are prone to missing chunks of time.
This was the third of four trips through the arbitration process for Paredes, a Super Two player. He’s controlled through the 2027 season and will be owed one more arbitration raise next winter. The 27-year-old Diaz is arb-eligible for the first time this winter. He and his reps at PRIME submitted a $4.5MM figure, while the team countered at $3MM.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Most clubs have a slightly earlier report date this year due to the World Baseball Classic. Last year, the Cubs and Dodgers had earlier report dates because they were had an earlier Opening Day than everyone else as part of the Tokyo Series. Gavin Stone was the first player to land on the 60-day IL in 2025, landing there on February 11th. According to MLB.com, every club has a report date from February 10th to 13th this year.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until late May or beyond. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, and more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment. If a team wants to pass a player through waivers, perhaps they will try to do so in the near future before the extra roster flexibility opens up.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time or who have uncertain recovery timelines from 2025 injuries.
Angels: Anthony Rendon, Ben Joyce
Rendon’s situation is unique. He underwent hip surgery a year ago and missed the entire 2025 season. He is still on the roster and signed through 2026. He and the club have agreed to a salary-deferment plan and he is not expected to be in spring training with the club. His recovery timeline is unclear, but general manager Perry Minasian said earlier this month that Rendon would be “rehabbing at home,” per Alden González of ESPN. If they were going to release him, they likely would have done so by now, so he seems destined for the injured list.
Joyce underwent shoulder surgery in May and missed the remainder of the 2025 season. His current status is unclear. In August, he told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he didn’t know if he would be ready for spring training. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the Halos don’t expect him back before the end of May.
Astros: Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery in 2025. Wesneski was first, with his surgery taking place on May 23rd. Blanco followed shortly thereafter in early June. They will likely be targeting returns in the second half. Walter’s procedure was in September, meaning he will likely miss the entire season. All three should be on the 60-day IL as soon as Houston needs roster spots for other transactions.
Athletics: Zack Gelof
Gelof underwent surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder in September, with the expectation of him potentially being healthy for spring training. At the end of December, general manager David Forst told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com that Gelof would be “a little bit behind” in spring. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the A’s think he’ll be out through late May.
Blue Jays: Jake Bloss
Bloss underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in May. He was on optional assignment at the time and stayed in the minors for the rest of the season. Going into 2026, the Jays could keep him in the minors but they could also call him up and place him on the major league IL. Doing so would open up a roster spot but would also mean giving Bloss big league pay and service time.
Braves: Ha-Seong Kim, AJ Smith-Shawver, Danny Young, Joe Jiménez
Kim recently fell on some ice and injured his hand. He underwent surgery last week, and the expected recovery time is four to five months. The shorter end of that window only goes to mid-May, so perhaps Atlanta will hold off on making a decision until they watch his recovery, especially since they have other guys with clearer injury timelines.
Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so he shouldn’t be back until the second half and is therefore a lock for the 60-day IL once Atlanta needs a spot. Young underwent the same procedure in May, so he should also be bound for the IL.
Jimenez is more of a question mark. He missed the 2025 season due to left knee surgery. He required a “cleanup” procedure on that knee towards the end of the season. His timeline isn’t currently clear.
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: Justin Steele
Steele will probably be a bit of a borderline case. He underwent UCL surgery in April but it wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery. The Cubs described it as a “revision repair”. Steele had undergone Tommy John in 2017 as a minor leaguer.
Since Steele’s more recent procedure was a bit less serious than a full Tommy John, the club gave an estimated return timeline of about one year, putting him in line to potentially return fairly early in 2026. Given his importance to the Cubs, they would only put him on the 60-day IL if his timeline changes and he’s certain to be out through late May.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez, Blake Walston, Tyler Locklear
The Snakes were hit hard by the injury bug in 2025. Burnes, Walston and Martínez all underwent Tommy John surgery. Burnes and Martínez had their procedures in June, so they should be targeting second-half returns and be easy calls for the 60-day IL. Walston would be a bit more borderline because his surgery was around Opening Day in late March last year. Puk had the slightly less significant internal brace procedure in June, so he could also be a borderline case.
Turning to the position players, Gurriel tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in September. He required surgery which came with a return timeline of nine to ten months, so he should be out until around the All-Star break.
Locklear should be back sooner. He underwent surgery in October to address a ligament tear in his elbow and a labrum injury in his shoulder. The hope at the time of that procedure was that he would be game ready to go on a rehab assignment around Opening Day and would therefore miss only about the first month. He would therefore only hit the 60-day IL if he doesn’t meet that timeline for some reason.
Dodgers: Brock Stewart
Stewart underwent shoulder debridement surgery in September. His timeline for 2026 isn’t especially clear. He will likely start the season on the IL but it’s unclear if he’ll be out long enough to warrant landing on the 60-day version.
Giants: Randy Rodríguez, Jason Foley
Rodríguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL and might even miss the entire 2026 campaign. Foley’s status is a bit more murky. He underwent shoulder surgery in May while with the Tigers. Detroit non-tendered him at season’s end, which allowed the Giants to sign him. He is expected back at some point mid-season. The Giants may want to get more clarity on his progress during camp before deciding on a move to the IL.
Guardians: Andrew Walters, David Fry
Neither of these guys is a lock for the 60-day IL. Walters had surgery to repair his right lat tendon in June with a recovery estimate of eight to ten months. Fry underwent surgery in October due to a deviated septum and a fractured nose suffered when a Tarik Skubal pitch hit him in the face. His timeline is unclear. It’s possible one or both could be healthy by Opening Day, so relevant updates may be forthcoming when camps open.
Mariners: Logan Evans
Evans required UCL surgery just last week and will miss the entire 2026 season. He was on optional assignment at the end of 2025, so the Mariners could keep him in the minors. Calling him up and putting him on the big league 60-day IL would open up a 40-man spot but would also involve Evans receiving big league pay and service time for the year.
Marlins: Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez underwent internal brace surgery in December and will miss the entire 2026 season, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL.
Mets: Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and are likely to miss the entire 2026 season, making them locks for the 60-day IL. Núñez went under the knife in July, followed by Megill in September and Garrett in October.
Nationals: Trevor Williams, DJ Herz
Williams underwent internal brace surgery in July. That’s a slightly less serious variation of Tommy John but still usually requires about a year of recovery. Herz underwent a full Tommy John procedure in April. Since that surgery usually requires 14 months or longer to come back, both pitchers are likely out until around the All-Star break and therefore bound for the 60-day IL once the Nats need some roster spots.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent shoulder surgery in August, and the club announced his recovery timeline as 12 months. He’s a lock for the 60-day IL and may miss the entire season if his recovery doesn’t go smoothly.
Padres: Yu Darvish, Jhony Brito, Jason Adam
Darvish underwent UCL surgery in November and will miss the entire 2026 season. Instead of going on the IL, he may just retire, but it seems there are some contractual complications to be ironed out since he is signed through 2028.
Brito and Adam could be borderline cases. Brito underwent internal brace surgery in May of last year. Some pitchers can return from that procedure in about a year. Adam ruptured a tendon in his left quad in early September. In November, he seemed to acknowledge that he wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. As of now, a trip to the 60-day IL seems unlikely unless he suffers a setback.
Pirates: Jared Jones
Jones required UCL surgery on May 21st of last year. The Bucs announced an expected return timeline of 10 to 12 months. The shorter end of that window would allow Jones to return fairly early in 2026. If it looks like he’ll be on the longer end of that time frame, he could wind up on the 60-day IL.
Phillies: Zack Wheeler
Wheeler underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in September, with a timeline of six to eight months. As of now, it seems unlikely Wheeler would require a trip to the 60-day IL, but it depends on how his ramp-up goes. He’s also approaching his 36th birthday, and the Phils could slow-play his recovery.
Rangers: Cody Bradford
Bradford required internal brace surgery in late June of last year. He recently said he’s targeting a return in May. That’s a pretty aggressive timeline, but perhaps the Rangers will delay moving him to the 60-day IL until that plan is strictly ruled out.
Rays: Manuel Rodríguez
Rodriguez underwent flexor tendon surgery in July of last year and is targeting a return in June of this year, so he should be a lock for the 60-day IL.
Reds: Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar
Both of these pitchers required Tommy John surgeries late in 2024, Williamson in September and Aguiar in October. They each missed the entire 2025 season. Presumably, they are recovered by now and could be healthy going into 2026, but there haven’t been any recent public updates.
Red Sox: Tanner Houck, Triston Casas
Houck is the most clear-cut case for Boston. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2025 and will miss most or perhaps all of the 2026 season. Casas is more borderline. He’s still recovering from a ruptured left patellar tendon suffered in May of last year. It doesn’t seem like he will be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline apart from that is murky.
Rockies: Jeff Criswell, Kris Bryant
Criswell required Tommy John surgery in early March of last year. With the normal 14-month recovery timeline, he could be back in May. Anything slightly longer than that would make him a candidate for the 60-day IL. Bryant’s timeline is very difficult to discern. He has hardly played in recent years due to various injuries and is now dealing with chronic symptoms related to lumbar degenerative disc disease. Updates will likely be provided once camp opens.
Royals: Alec Marsh
Marsh missed 2025 due to shoulder problems and is slated to miss 2026 as well after undergoing labrum surgery in November.
Tigers: Jackson Jobe
Jobe required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He will miss most or perhaps even all of the 2026 season.
Twins: None.
White Sox: Ky Bush, Drew Thorpe, Prelander Berroa
These three hurlers all required Tommy John surgery about a year ago, Bush in February, followed by Berroa and Thorpe in March. Given the normal 14-month recovery period, any of them could return early in 2026, but they could also end up on the 60-day IL if the timeline pushes slightly beyond that.
Yankees: Clarke Schmidt, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Volpe
Schmidt is the only lock of this group. He required UCL surgery in July of last year and should miss the first half of the 2026 season. Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in March of last year. His target is expected to be late May/early June, so he has a decent chance to hit the 60-day. However, given his importance to the club, the Yankees probably won’t put him there until it’s certain he won’t be back by the middle of May.
Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He’s expected to be back with the big league club in late April or early May, so he would only hit the 60-day IL if his timeline is pushed. Volpe required shoulder surgery in October. He’s not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline beyond that doesn’t seem concrete.
Photo courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images