MLBTR Podcast: Examining MLB’s Parity Situation – Also, Bellinger, Peralta, Robert, And Gore
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Tim’s recent post looking at MLB’s economics and issues of parity (1:20)
- The possibility of a salary cap coming into existence at some point in the future (5:25)
- Comparing the salary cap path to alterations to the current revenue sharing system (8:40)
- The public relations battle with fans knowing all about players and their salaries but not necessarily knowing so much about the owners and their finances (17:35)
- Is there any hope of the owners working out some new revenue sharing arrangement? (20:45)
- Are deferrals a massive problem or is the Shohei Ohtani deal just an extreme outlier that had led to increased angst? (26:50)
- What kind of compromise are we likely to get in the next collective bargaining agreement? (32:45)
- The Yankees re-signing Cody Bellinger (37:35)
- The Mets acquiring Freddy Peralta from the Brewers and Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox (47:20)
- The Brewers‘ end of the Peralta trade (53:20)
- The White Sox‘ end of the Robert deal (56:15)
- The Rangers sending five prospects to the Nationals to acquire MacKenzie Gore (1:02:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez – listen here
- The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing – listen here
- Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
Brewers, Reese McGuire Agree To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have signed catcher Reese McGuire to a minor league contract and invited him to major league spring training, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reported last week that the two sides had been talking. McGuire is represented by Apex Baseball.
McGuire, 31 in March, is a former first-round pick and top prospect who’s played in parts of eight major league seasons with four teams — most recently the 2025 Cubs. He hit .226/.245/.444 (86 wRC+) in 140 turns at the plate with Chicago last year and is a career .248/.293/.374 hitter in 400 games and 1178 plate appearances as a big leaguer.
Though he never developed into much of a threat in the batter’s box, McGuire has been a frequently used backup in recent years, due primarily to his defensive acumen. He receives above-average grades for his framing, ability to block balls in the dirt and his throwing. He nabbed eight of 31 thieves on the bases this past season (25.9%) and has a career caught-stealing rate just over 27%.
McGuire has more than five years of major league service time, so if he makes the roster in Milwaukee, the Brewers won’t be able to option him to the minor leagues. As things stand, there would appear to be a good chance that McGuire can indeed break camp with the club. William Contreras is, of course, in line to handle the bulk of the Brewers’ catching work.
Prior to their deal with McGuire, there was no clear backup option. Top prospect Jeferson Quero is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster, but the Brewers aren’t going to have a 23-year-old top-100 prospect sit on the bench as a backup at the major league level. Bringing McGuire into the mix allows Milwaukee to send Quero to Triple-A Nashville where he can play regularly and continue his development. Quero notched 250 plate appearances in Triple-A last season, but that was his first exposure to the top minor league level and he posted only league-average offensive marks in that time. He’s the heir apparent to Contreras behind the dish but isn’t yet ready for a full-time major league look.
The Brewers could always bring in some more veteran catchers to create some competition in camp, but for now, McGuire jumps to the front of the pack as the likeliest in-house option to serve as Contreras’ backup in 2026.
The Brewers’ Rotation Options After Peralta Trade
The Brewers traded ace Freddy Peralta and swingman Tobias Myers to the Mets last week. Milwaukee generally, though not always, trades its best players as they approach their final year before free agency. There was never much chance they were going to meet Peralta’s asking price on another contract. That left the front office to decide whether to move him for controllable pieces or hold him through his final arbitration year and collect a compensatory draft pick when he signed elsewhere.
They opted for the former once the Mets put Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat on the table, albeit in a deal that also cost them a potential rotation arm in Myers. It’s obviously not the start of a rebuild for a team that had MLB’s best record and advanced to the NL Championship Series a year ago. They’re counting on their pitching pipeline to continue to produce as they aim for a fourth straight division title.
How will Pat Murphy’s starting staff line up?
Locks
Woodruff is back as the veteran anchor and their clear #1 starter. The righty accepted a $22.025MM qualifying offer, a move that probably surprised Milwaukee’s front office to an extent. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold acknowledged that getting Woodruff back made them more comfortable parting with Peralta (relayed by Curt Hogg of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The 2026 payroll factors into that to an extent, yet Peralta’s $8MM salary shouldn’t have been a hang-up even by Brewers’ standards. There were other players they could have moved (e.g. Andrew Vaughn, Trevor Megill) if ownership mandated a payroll reduction.
The Brewers can feel comfortable about having an established top-of-the-rotation starter. The big question is how many innings they can reasonably expect. Woodruff missed all of 2024 rehabbing from shoulder surgery. A handful of smaller injuries delayed his ’25 debut, and he sustained a season-ending lat strain after 12 starts. He has pitched 131 2/3 frames over the past three seasons. Woodruff enters camp fully healthy, but it’s fair to wonder if he can shoulder 150 innings.
The 25-year-old Priester is now the second-most experienced Milwaukee starter. He and Robert Gasser are the only other starters with more than a year of MLB service time; the majority of Gasser’s service came on the injured list working back from UCL surgery.
Priester began the ’25 season in Triple-A with the Red Sox. Dealt to Milwaukee in a rare April trade of significance, the former first-rounder was a revelation. He tossed 157 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball behind a massive 56.1% grounder percentage. Milwaukee had a stretch of 19 consecutive wins in his outings between May and September. Priester has serviceable but not elite swing-and-miss stuff. It’s a sinker-slider profile geared toward keeping the ball on the ground. That approach comes with some batted ball variability but plays well in front of a strong infield defense.
Upside Plays
Misiorowski was arguably the #1 pitching prospect in MLB when the Brewers called him up in June. He began his career in electric fashion, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of his first seven starts. Milwaukee didn’t let him work deep into games, but he lit up the radar gun while missing plenty of bats. His performance wavered down the stretch, and evaluators’ longstanding concerns about his command pushed him into a bullpen role for the playoffs. Misiorowski impressed again in October, striking out 16 over 12 innings of three-run ball in a trio of postseason outings.
Overall, the 6’7″ righty finished his debut campaign with a 4.36 ERA across 66 innings. He’s certainly not going to be the back-end innings eater usually associated with a mid-4.00s ERA, though. Misiorowski has ace stuff with walk issues that may yet land him in high-leverage relief. He should get a full look in the rotation this year, albeit with questions about his start-to-start efficiency.
Henderson may not be a Misiorowski-level prospect, yet his 2025 debut was also highly anticipated by Milwaukee fans. He was called up in April and pitched well over four starts before being squeezed off the MLB roster. The Brewers brought him back up after the trade deadline. He made one start before being diagnosed with elbow inflammation and spending the rest of the season on the injured list. The 23-year-old righty allowed five runs while striking out a third of opponents over his first 25 1/3 MLB innings.
Baseball America ranked Henderson 96th on their Top 100 prospects list last week. They credit him with plus control and a plus changeup, while his 93 MPH fastball plays above its velocity because of his release angle and spin. Henderson has always been effective in the minors, posting a 3.26 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate over his career. Can he continue to miss bats at a high rate against MLB hitters without really trusting his cutter or slider? He might also run into some home run trouble as a fly-ball pitcher with average velocity whose fastball works best at the top of the strike zone. There are questions about the ultimate ceiling, but Henderson’s first five starts couldn’t have gone much better.
Sproat will try to immediately replace Peralta in the starting five. He also landed in the back quarter of the aforementioned BA prospect list — a few spots above Henderson, in fact. Sproat has much bigger stuff, sitting 96-97 with above-average to plus grades on his slider, curveball and changeup. His command isn’t nearly as polished. Sproat walked 10.4% of opponents over 26 Triple-A appearances last year, and he was hit around a little bit over four starts as a September call-up. The 6’3″ righty has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter, but the command will need to improve if he’s going to get there.
Back-End Arms
Patrick was a 26-year-old rookie whom the Brewers acquired from the A’s in 2023 for journeyman infielder Abraham Toro. There wasn’t a whole lot of fanfare when he broke camp for his MLB debut last spring. Patrick went on to a seventh-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting after tossing 119 2/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball. There’s a decent chance he would have placed more highly had the team’s rotation depth not pushed him to Triple-A when Woodruff returned to action on July 6.
The righty spent six weeks in the minors through no real fault of his own. He worked in a swing role once he was recalled in the middle of August. Patrick pitched well in either role and had an excellent postseason, firing nine innings of two-run ball with 11 strikeouts. He has a six-pitch mix led by a plus cutter that helped him punch out a quarter of opponents. Patrick probably doesn’t have the ceiling of some of his teammates but should enter camp with a leg up on Henderson and Sproat for the fourth or fifth starter role.
Acquired from San Diego in the Josh Hader trade, Gasser had an impressive five-start debut in 2024. He blew out and underwent elbow surgery that kept him off an MLB mound until last September. The southpaw started two games and gave up six runs (only two earned) with four walks and five strikeouts across 5 2/3 frames. His minor league rehab numbers were quite a bit better. The 26-year-old Gasser has a 3.72 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate in just over 200 career Triple-A frames. He’s on the older side for a prospect because of the injury but still looks like a viable back-end starter.
Likely Relievers
Angel Zerpa, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall each have starting experience but fit better in the bullpen. All three were used primarily as relievers last season — with the Royals, in Zerpa’s case — and join Jared Koenig in giving Milwaukee a quartet of big arms from the left side out of the bullpen.
Zerpa has solid command and gets a ton of ground-balls, but his sinker/slider combination leaves him vulnerable to right-handed hitters. He’d probably need to pick up a splitter or cutter if he’s going to turn over a righty-heavy lineup twice in a game. Ashby hasn’t managed to stay healthy as a starter, while Hall’s command is too big an obstacle. They’re all capable of working multiple innings and could get some action as openers, as Ashby did a few times in the postseason to match him up against Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani.
The other two starters on the 40-man roster, Carlos Rodriguez and Coleman Crow, project as up-and-down arms. Rodriguez has decent stuff but has been walk-prone in the minors. He has allowed 18 runs in 22 career big league innings. Milwaukee added Crow to the roster at the beginning of the offseason to keep him out of minor league free agency. He’s the organization’s #30 prospect at Baseball America and has fringy stuff despite impressive strikeout rates in the minors.
——————————–
Even without Peralta, Milwaukee has a talented group of starters. Their collective lack of experience behind Woodruff means they’ll probably add a fifth starter or swingman on a one-year deal to reduce the load on their young arms. As is always the case for the Brewers, they’re likely to mix in some tandem starts/openers while shuffling pitchers up and down from Triple-A. Woodruff is their only starter who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, while Rob Zastryzny is their only out-of-options reliever. They’ll have a lot of roster flexibility if they want to incorporate bullpen games or a six-man rotation to keep pitchers’ innings in check.
Brewers Trade Freddy Peralta To Mets
The Mets make another splash, acquiring All-Star starter Freddy Peralta and swingman Tobias Myers from the Brewers for prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. The teams announced the blockbuster trade on Wednesday night. New York designated right-hander Cooper Criswell for assignment in a corresponding move.
After losing out on Kyle Tucker, the Mets have signed Bo Bichette and traded for Luis Robert Jr. and Peralta. Tonight’s move is arguably the biggest of the three, as Peralta gives them a legitimate #1 starter atop what had been a talented but volatile rotation. He’s coming off a career season that landed him fifth in NL Cy Young balloting.
Peralta set a career mark with 176 2/3 innings while managing a personal-best 2.70 earned run average. He punched out 28.2% of opponents behind a near-13% swinging strike rate while issuing walks at a 9.1% clip. Peralta’s underlying marks have been consistently strong over his five seasons as a full-time starter. He misses bats at a plus rate with solid command. He had been a little susceptible to the longball between 2023-24, which elevated his ERA slightly (3.77) over that span. A dip in homer rate was the biggest factor in last year’s results, but estimators like FIP and SIERA feel he has been more or less the same pitcher five years running.
The 6’0″ righty challenges hitters with his fastball, a 94-95 MPH offering that plays up because of its plus spin and life. He backs that up with a changeup that he’ll throw to hitters of either handedness and a pair of breaking balls (though he only uses his slider against righties). His willingness to attack hitters up in the zone with the fastball leads to a fly-ball approach and the occasional home run, but it’s a worthwhile tradeoff for the few baserunners he’ll allow. Opposing hitters have mustered a .210/.288/.367 batting line over the past three seasons.
Peralta also brings an excellent durability track record to stabilize a rotation that was light on established innings sources. He hasn’t required a single stint on the injured list in three years. He’s tied for fifth with 95 starts and ranks 15th with 516 innings over that stretch. Only Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler have more strikeouts in that time. Peralta and Cease are the only pitchers to record 200+ strikeouts in each of the past three seasons. He battled some shoulder issues in 2021-22, including a lat strain that limited him to 18 appearances four years ago, but his recent health record has been clean.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns knows Peralta well from his time running baseball operations with Milwaukee. He’s probably the best starting pitcher who’ll get traded this offseason, so the Mets would surely have been involved even without that connection, but the familiarity only made him a more natural fit. Stearns also brought back closer Devin Williams on a three-year free agent contract as his biggest bullpen move of the winter.
The Stearns-led front office wisely locked Peralta up on an extension before his breakout. Peralta had been an unheralded amateur signee by the Mariners whom the Brewers acquired as one of three prospects in an Adam Lind trade when he was in rookie ball. He worked in a swing role with mixed results over his first two seasons. Milwaukee secured him on a $15.5MM guarantee with a pair of $8MM club options over the 2019-20 offseason. It almost immediately became one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts.
Peralta is headed into the final season of that deal and playing on the second of those $8MM options. The Mets will happily pick up that salary and the associated $8.8MM luxury tax hit. RosterResource projects them for a $365MM competitive balance tax payroll. They ended last season with $347MM in CBT commitments and paid another $91.6MM in taxes.
This is much more affordable from a salary perspective than were the Bichette and Robert acquisitions, though the pitcher is less than a year from a monster payday of his own. He’s on track to hit free agency before his age-31 season and could command the second-largest contract in the class after Tarik Skubal. He’s a lock to reject a qualifying offer barring a major injury. The Mets would receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in ’27 if he walks. As a revenue sharing recipient, Milwaukee would’ve gotten a pick after the first round had they kept him (assuming he signed elsewhere for $50MM+).
The Mets will presumably make an effort to keep him long term, but the main focus is on 2026. Peralta slots ahead of touted rookie Nolan McLean at the top of the staff. Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Kodai Senga are also penciled into what could be a six-man rotation — though the latter two have come up in trade rumors this offseason. Jonah Tong didn’t dominate the way McLean did after a late-season promotion, but he’s a top prospect who’ll be in the mix. They’re getting another touted arm, Christian Scott, back from elbow surgery.
Myers projects for a swing role but is likely to make some starts over the course of a 162-game season as well. The 27-year-old righty is more than a throw-in addition, as he has pitched well for Milwaukee over the past two years. Myers held a rotation spot for the majority of the ’24 season. He started 25 of 27 games as a rookie and posted an even 3.00 earned run average through 138 innings. He recorded a solid 22.3% strikeout rate while limiting his walks to a 6.3% clip.
An oblique strain sidelined Myers to open last season. The Brewers activated him in late April but optioned him to Triple-A after a handful of shaky appearances. Myers was up and down in a swing role for the remainder of the season. He was mostly squeezed out of the rotation by Milwaukee’s bigger arms, but he pitched well in the second half and finished the year with a 3.55 ERA across 50 2/3 frames. He had similar numbers over 12 starts with Triple-A Nashville.
Myers works in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball. He uses a cutter and slider as his breaking balls and tweaked his changeup to more of a splitter midway through last season. The pitch got good results in a small sample, as opponents hit .108 while swinging through it almost 40% of the time. That should give him a better offering against left-handed hitters after he struggled with southpaws as a rookie.
The righty has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration for another two seasons and is under club control through 2030. He has a minor league option remaining, which gives the Mets flexibility to move him between MLB and Triple-A Syracuse.
The Brewers deserve credit for helping Myers develop into a serviceable back-end starter. He’d once been a reasonably well-regarded prospect — Cleveland regrettably traded Junior Caminero to the Rays for him when the slugging infielder was in rookie ball — but he’d seemingly hit a wall in the upper minors. Milwaukee added him as a minor league free agent over the 2022-23 offseason, and he’s now a secondary but meaningful part of a trade that netted them a pair of top prospects.
Williams and Sproat each placed on the back half of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, which was released this morning. BA had Williams as the slightly more highly regarded of the two, but they’re essentially within the same tier. Williams is a right-handed hitter whom the Mets took in the first round out of a Dallas-area high school in 2022. He’s on the shorter side at 5’7″ but has plus athleticism and an up-the-middle defensive profile. Scouts credit him with plus speed and a strong arm with more power than one might expect based on his size.
That athleticism was on display in the upper minors. Williams combined for 17 homers and 34 stolen bases while hitting .261/.363/.465 across 572 plate appearances. He looked no worse for wear after a right wrist surgery had cost him a good chunk of the ’24 season. Williams raked at a .281/.390/.477 clip in Double-A. He struggled after a second half promotion to Triple-A, where he hit .209 with a .285 on-base percentage across 34 games. That’s not a huge concern for a 21-year-old who would have been young for the level even if he’d spent the entire season in Double-A.
Williams is a patient hitter who has worked a lot of walks in the minors. Although big league pitchers will be better positioned to attack the smaller strike zone, he has the makings of a potential top-of-the-lineup spark plug. Williams has played mostly shortstop and has experience at second base and in center field. He’s likely to begin the season at Triple-A Nashville and could challenge Joey Ortiz or Garrett Mitchell/Blake Perkins for playing time midway through the season.
Sproat, 25, is a big league ready rotation option. A second-round pick out of the University of Florida in 2023, he debuted as a September call-up. The 6’3″ righty made four starts, giving up 11 runs across 20 2/3 innings. Sproat otherwise spent the season in Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.24 ERA across 121 frames. He fanned 22.1% of opponents while issuing walks at a slightly elevated 10.4% clip. He has a six-pitch mix and works in the 96-97 MPH range on his sinker and four-seam fastball.
Baseball America’s scouting report credits Sproat with a plus changeup and slider. They write that he has the upside of an average or better starter, albeit with some relief risk based on his average control. He’s not as highly-regarded as McLean or Tong, but it’s not surprising the Mets weren’t willing to part with either of those prospects for a rental. McLean seems categorically untouchable. Michael Marino reported that Milwaukee had tried to involve Tong in discussions on Peralta but were quickly rebuffed. They then turned to a Williams/Sproat framework. It seems they needed to part with Myers to push the deal over the top.
Milwaukee wasn’t going to move Peralta without landing a strong prospect return. His salary was affordable enough that they didn’t need to trade him for salary relief. They certainly weren’t going to re-sign him, though, and it’s their usual operating procedure to hear clubs out on veteran stars who are approaching free agency. It doesn’t make a trade inevitable — they held Willy Adames and let him walk for a compensatory draft pick — but Peralta joins Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes and Williams as recent stars traded within a year or two of reaching the open market.
The Brewers never go into a full rebuild. They’re coming off a 97-win season and advanced to the NLCS. They’ll expect to compete for a fourth consecutive NL Central title. Milwaukee won the division in ’24 after the Burnes trade, which was the most direct parallel for their decision on Peralta. They also landed two prospects in that deal, Ortiz and left-hander DL Hall, who were borderline Top 100 talents who were at the MLB level. Williams and Sproat are probably a little more highly-regarded than the players they got in the Burnes trade, though their deal with Baltimore also included a competitive balance draft pick and didn’t involve the secondary piece in Myers.
Brandon Woodruff will slot atop the rotation after accepting the qualifying offer. Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser and Sproat could all battle for jobs. The Brewers haven’t closed the door on giving Angel Zerpa or Aaron Ashby rotation looks, though they’re each likelier to end up in relief. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold acknowledged that getting Woodruff back made them more comfortable parting with Peralta (relayed by Curt Hogg of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).
There’s a lot of upside with this group, but they’ll probably need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency for a back-end arm to provide innings. RosterResource projects their payroll around $126MM, roughly $11MM north of where they began the ’25 season. They should nevertheless be able to sign a starter for a few million dollars as Spring Training approaches. They wouldn’t have issued the QO to Woodruff if ownership weren’t willing to approve at least a slight payroll bump.
Milwaukee fans are familiar with the churn, but it’s surely a blow to lose another homegrown star and fan favorite. Peralta was third in franchise history in strikeouts and eighth in wins. He’s a two-time All-Star who has been a part of seven playoff teams over the past eight years. He’s out of the division but anchoring the rotation for what looks to be one of their top competitors in the National League.
Michael Marino first reported that the Brewers and Mets were discussing Peralta for Williams and Sproat. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated indicated talks were accelerating, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the agreement. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported Myers’ inclusion. Respective images courtesy of Benny Sieu, Michael McLoone, Sam Navarro and Brad Penner — Imagn Images.
Mets, Brewers In Conversations About Freddy Peralta
The Mets and Brewers are in discussions about star right-hander Freddy Peralta, according to reports from Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated and Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There’s no deal in place, but The Post’s Joel Sherman characterizes talks as “serious.” Ragazzo adds that middle infield/center field prospect Jett Williams has come up in conversations.
This morning, Michael Marino reported that Milwaukee was looking to acquire Williams and rookie right-hander Brandon Sproat in a Peralta deal. According to Marino, the Mets rebuffed earlier interest from the Brew Crew in top pitching prospect Jonah Tong. Meanwhile, Sherman adds that swingman Tobias Myers would likely head from Milwaukee to Queens if a deal gets across the finish line.
Peralta has been a top target for teams in need of rotation help. He’s coming off a fifth place Cy Young finish behind 176 2/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball. The Mets have been in the rotation market all offseason but haven’t been keen on making long-term free agent commitments. President of baseball operations David Stearns reiterated this morning that he still hoped to add a starter (link via Jorge Castillo of ESPN).
Padres Have Shown Interest In Freddy Peralta
Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is not a lock to be traded but plenty of other clubs are interested. He’s already been connected to the Astros, Giants, Mets, Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves this offseason. Today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Padres have checked in with the Brewers while Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain engaged.
The widespread appeal is understandable as Peralta is both good and cheap. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has given the Brewers 738 1/3 innings, allowing 3.30 earned runs per nine. His 9% walk rate in that time was close to league average while he struck out a big 29.6% of batters faced. He just wrapped up a 2025 season in which he posted a 2.70 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.
Milwaukee signed Peralta back in 2020, before he was established as a viable big league starter. That deal turned into a massive win for the Brewers, as it was only a $15.5MM guarantee over five years. It also included $8MM club options for 2025 and 2026. By the time those options rolled around, they were obvious bargains and picked up without hesitation.
That salary on a one-year commitment is very appealing for all teams. The top starting pitchers often make in the range of $25MM to $45MM annually on multi-year deals. This offseason has seen Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez and Michael King land average annual values in the $25-30MM range. In short, Peralta’s deal is a steal.
That makes him very appealing to all clubs. For big spending teams, Peralta is a theoretical rotation upgrade without the big contract. Most of the top spenders are also facing huge tax bills, in many cases more than doubling the cost of signing any free agent. For teams with payroll crunches, it’s also obviously helpful to be able to get a top arm without a big price.
It also makes Peralta valuable for the Brewers, who are never big spenders. But the fact that Peralta is nearing free agency puts them in a tricky spot. Their low payrolls usually make it hard for them to sign their players for the long term, which can lead to them being traded as free agency nears.
In recent years, players like Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader have been traded as their respective windows of control were shrinking. But with Willy Adames, Milwaukee decided to hold onto him until he hit the open market. They collected compensation in the form of an extra draft pick after he rejected a qualifying offer and then signed with the Giants.
Peralta could go either way. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold downplayed the trade possibility back in November but the club is also reportedly concerned about its payroll. Earlier this month, they were one of nine teams who terminated broadcast deals with Main Street Sports. It’s possible they could negotiate a new deal or pivot to having MLB handle things but they will almost certainly bring in less broadcast revenue in 2026 compared to the year prior.
Trading Peralta wouldn’t save the Brewers a ton of money but it would allow them to theoretically bolster other areas of the roster without having to spend on free agents. However, no offer has compelled them to pull the trigger yet, with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than three weeks.
The Padres make a lot of sense as a landing spot for Peralta. Rotation depth was a concern for them throughout 2025 and then they lost Cease and King to free agency at season’s end. Shortly thereafter, Yu Darvish underwent UCL surgery, ruling him out for the entire 2026 campaign.
They have since brought back King but further bolstering the rotation would make sense. Currently, they project to have King, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove in three spots, followed by a cluster of potential depth options including Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, Kyle Hart and Matt Waldron.
Even within that group, there are notable questions. King is coming off a season impacted by injuries. Pivetta has been in some trade rumors due to his back-loaded contract. Musgrove will be coming back from missing 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Vásquez had a nice 3.84 ERA last year but just a 13.7% strikeout rate. Sears, Waldron and Hart all had poor seasons.
Adding to that group makes sense but the Friars have seemingly been walking a financial tightrope for a few years. Their payroll peaked in 2023 but the offseasons since then have seen them trying to work around an apparent lack of spending capacity. That seemed to motivate the Juan Soto trade two offseasons ago. Last winter, they were able to sign Pivetta but with an unusual structure. It was $55MM over four years but with just a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM signing bonus in the first year.
RosterResource projects the payroll for $220MM next year, which is a bit above last year’s spending. The competitive balance tax figure is pegged at $262MM, above the base threshold of $244MM. The Padres reset their tax status in 2024 but paid the tax last year. That means they would be second-time payors in 2026, which leads to a 30% base tax rate. Going above $264MM would increase the tax rate to 42% on spending beyond that line.
That presumably makes the Padres at least somewhat unwilling to spend big on a free agent like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen or Chris Bassitt. Rosenthal writes that their preferred spending range is $8MM to $12MM and he floats Nick Martinez, Lucas Giolito and Justin Verlander as guys who could theoretically fall to that range.
Though Peralta’s $8MM salary would undoubtedly be appealing, especially if they move Pivetta and his $19MM salary in 2026, the Brewers would want something notable in return. Subtracting from the big league roster would be counterproductive and the Padres have also traded away a large number of prospects in recent years, including sending top prospect Leo De Vries to the Athletics in last year’s Mason Miller deal. Lining up on a deal with Milwaukee may be tricky.
Turning to the Dodgers, Woo notes that their interest presumably indicates at least some level of concern from the club in relation to the current rotation mix. The Dodgers have a great starting group on paper but questions with most of the individuals. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is only guy still on the roster who topped 91 innings pitched last year. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki all came in under that line due to various different health situations. The Dodgers presumably don’t expect the whole group to stay healthy for 2026.
They also seem better positioned than the Padres to offer the Brewers the kind of young, controllable pitching they would probably want in return. Sheehan and Sasaki are both still in their pre-arb years. The same is true of guys like Ben Casparius, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and others.
Woo also floats outfielder Ryan Ward as a possibility, with the recent Kyle Tucker signing blocking his path. She writes that the Dodgers were considering a platoon of the lefty-swinging Ward and righty Alex Call before landing Tucker, so Ward may now be expendable. The Brewers subtracted from their outfield this offseason when they traded Isaac Collins to the Royals alongside Nick Mears to acquire left-hander Ángel Zerpa. They still have a decent group including Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins and others.
Whether the Brewers can be compelled to complete a trade remains to be seen. Without Peralta, their rotation would still consist of a pretty good group including Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Tobias Myers and others, plus whatever they can get in return in the Peralta trade. But they could also just hold Peralta to make another run in 2026. If Peralta is healthy a season from now, he would be a lock to reject a QO, netting the Brewers a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
Nine Teams Terminate Contracts With Main Street Sports
The nine MLB teams who had contracts with Main Street Sports have terminated those contracts with the company. It’s possible that some of them eventually work out new deals with the broadcaster, which operates channels under the FanDuel Sports Network banner. The teams are the Braves, Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals and Rays. Talks between the company and the teams are ongoing. Various elements of this developing story were reported by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Alden González of ESPN, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, Tom Friend of the Sports Business Journal and Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
The issue is due to the poor financial state of the company. They have recently missed payments to several teams, including the Cardinals and Marlins, but possibly others. The nine teams have cut ties with the company for now to keep them away from potential bankruptcy proceedings and explore other options, but it’s possible some teams will eventually sign new pacts with the company. Main Street is trying to find a buyer, though the reporting indicates talks with DAZN have fizzled out. Fubo TV might have stepped into the bidding but there are conflicting reports about that.
This is just the latest chapter in a saga that goes back quite a while, with cord cutting and streaming having chipped away the regional sports network (RSN) model. The company was previously known as Diamond Sports Group with channels marketed as Bally Sports. Going into 2023, 14 MLB clubs and many teams in other sports leagues had RSN deals with the company. But trouble emerged early that year when the company missed some payments. They filed for bankruptcy in March of 2023.
The company eventually emerged from bankruptcy in November of 2024 and then rebranded. Along the way, many of their deals with MLB clubs fell apart. In some cases, new deals were worked out. In other cases, the league took over broadcasting duties. The Rangers went a different route and launched their own RSN. Coming into 2026, Main Street has 29 deals with teams across MLB, the NBA and NHL.
The path of MLB handling the broadcasts will be available for all the clubs involved here. “No matter what happens, whether it’s Main Street, a third party or MLB media, fans are going to have the games,” commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday, per Blum.
The MLB path is largely inconsequential for fans. If anything, it’s a better arrangement. MLB still puts the games on cable. For cord-cutters, they have the option of streaming the club by paying the league directly, with no local blackouts.
For the teams, however, it’s not a great situation. RSN deals have been a big source of revenue over the years. The bankruptcy of Diamond/Main Street put many of them in a tough position. Renegotiating with the company meant accepting lower fees than they had been receiving on their previous deals. Going with MLB would allow them to potentially reach more fans but the revenue in that path is both lesser and not guaranteed, as the money is contingent on how many people sign up to stream.
MLB handled the broadcasts of five clubs in 2025: the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Twins and Guardians. It was reported in September that the Mariners would go down this route in 2026. This week’s reporting suggests the Nationals will likely leave MASN and join with the league as well.
In the cases of at least a few of these teams, the situation seems to had on-field implications by reducing the club’s spending capacity when it comes to player payroll. The Padres and Twins, for instance, have been trying to strike a delicate balance of staying in contention while having less to spend on players than the front office may have once anticipated.
That’s obviously a disadvantage compared to some big-market clubs, many of whom are co-owners in RSNs which are relatively healthy in larger population areas. In July of 2024, it was reported that the league and the MLB Players Association had agreed to redirect some competitive balance tax money to teams impacted by the television situation. This week’s reporting indicates that arrangement was for 2024 alone. There was no such deal in place for 2025 and there’s currently nothing lined up for 2026 either.
“The clubs have control over the timing,” Manfred said this week. “They can make a decision to move to MLB Media because of the contractual status now. I think that what’s happening right now clubs are evaluating their alternatives. Obviously they’ve made significant payroll commitments already and they’re evaluating the alternatives to find the best revenue source for the year and the best outlet in terms of providing quality broadcasts to their fans.”
With this situation and other disruptive developments in terms of MLB’s broadcast landscape, the league’s preference has been to not sign any new contracts that go beyond the 2028 season. It has been reported that many of MLB’s broadcast deals expire after that season. Manfred hopes to put together a league-wide streaming service with no blackouts and/or have a big auction of rights to various games, with multiple broadcasters bidding against each other.
A mini version of this happened recently when MLB’s deal with ESPN fell apart. The league then split up ESPN’s previous package, selling some of it back to ESPN along with other elements. Netflix bought the rights to Opening Day, the Home Run Derby and some other special events. NBC/Peacock bought Sunday Night Baseball and the Wild Card round from 2026 to 2028, as well as other events. ESPN acquired the local rights for the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Guardians and Twins as part of their new deal.
All of this figures to hang over the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations. The current CBA expires after the 2026 season. Another lockout, like the one in 2021-22, is widely expected. Manfred has essentially admitted that one will occur by speaking positively about the lockout process.
Whether that lockout extends long enough to cancel games in 2027 remains to be seen. The players and the union are already concerned by a lack of spending from some clubs and the RSN situation will likely only exacerbate that. Some of the impacted clubs would likely welcome more revenue sharing but the bigger clubs wouldn’t be as keen on that. The owners are expected to push for a salary cap but the players are strongly opposed to that.
Manfred has made plenty of unpopular moves in his time as commissioner but he can currently point to a legacy that includes no games missed due to labor strife. Baseball’s popularity is also on the rise, despite the aforementioned TV disruption. Game Seven of the 2025 World Series was the most-watched game around the world since 1991. The uptick in ratings and attendance has been attributed by many to recent rule changes, particularly the pitch clock.
Disrupting the 2027 season would impact that legacy and also cut into baseball’s recent surge, which would be inopportune timing with the aforementioned future broadcast plans. Manfred is signed through 2029 and does not plan to seek another term after that.
Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images
18 Players Exchange Filing Figures
Teams and arbitration-eligible players had until 7:00 pm Central to agree to terms or exchange filing figures. The vast majority agreed to salaries, either this afternoon or before November’s non-tender deadline to ensure they were offered contracts at all.
There were 18 cases where team and player did not align — none bigger than the record $13MM gap between the Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Nothing formally prevents players and teams from continuing negotiations. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.
If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. (Hearings will run between January 26 and February 13.) The arbitrators cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.
Unless otherwise noted, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported all filing figures for those who didn’t reach agreements. The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):
Angels
- Reid Detmers (3.159): Filed at $2.925MM, team filed at $2.625MM
Astros
- Isaac Paredes (4.160): Filed at $9.95MM, team filed at $8.75MM
- Yainer Diaz (3.035): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $3MM
Blue Jays
- Eric Lauer (5.091): Filed at $5.75MM, team filed at $4.4MM (first reported by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet)
Braves
- Dylan Lee (3.150): Filed at $2.2MM, team filed at $2MM
Brewers
- William Contreras (4.112): Filed at $9.9MM, team filed at $8.75MM
Marlins
- Calvin Faucher (2.156): Filed at $2.05MM, team filed at $1.8MM
Mariners
- Bryce Miller (2.153): Filed at $2.625MM, team filed at $2.25MM
Nationals
- Cade Cavalli (2.141): Filed at $900K, team filed at $825K
Orioles
- Keegan Akin (5.083): Filed at $3.375MM, team filed at $2.975MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): Filed at $3.55MM, team filed at $2.875MM
Rays
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): Filed at $1.525MM, team filed at $1.2MM
Reds
- Tyler Stephenson (5.056): Filed at $6.8MM, team filed at $6.55MM
- Graham Ashcraft (3.130): Filed at $1.75MM, team filed at $1.25MM
Royals
- Kris Bubic (5.135): Filed at $6.15MM, team filed at $5.15MM
- Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $4MM
Tigers
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): Filed at $32MM, team filed at $19MM
Twins
- Joe Ryan (4.033): Filed at $6.35MM, team filed at $5.85MM
Brewers Hire Thad Levine As Special Advisor
The Brewers have hired former Twins general manager Thad Levine as a special advisor in baseball operations, relays Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. This is Levine’s first job in MLB since he stepped down as Minnesota GM at the end of the 2024 season.
Although Levine held the GM title, he was never atop the baseball operations department. He worked as top lieutenant under chief baseball officer/president of baseball operations Derek Falvey from 2017-24. The Twins made four playoff appearances, three of which were behind AL Central titles, within the first seven seasons. They looked on their way to another postseason berth in 2024 before a late-season collapse dropped them to an 82-80 record and put them on the outside looking in.
Before his time in Minnesota, Levine spent more than a decade with the Rangers as an assistant GM. He’d worked in the Colorado front office prior to that. There was some thought that the Rockies could circle back to Levine when they dismissed GM Bill Schmidt at the beginning of the offseason, but there’s no indication he wound up receiving serious consideration.
The Brewers have three assistant GMs under president of baseball operations Matt Arnold: Will Hudgins, Matt Kleine and Karl Mueller. Levine joins Doug Melvin and Matt Klentak as former general managers with advisory titles.
Dodgers, Braves Among Teams To Show Interest In Freddy Peralta
Though the Brewers have continually downplayed the possibility of actually trading him, ace right-hander Freddy Peralta continues to draw a wide array of interest. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic include the Dodgers and Braves among a list of teams to inquire with the Brewers, joining a group of previously reported clubs that includes the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. All of those clubs are still believed to have interest in the righty.
Peralta’s appeal is obvious. He’s a durable 29-year-old righty with a 3.30 ERA over his past five seasons, including a career-low 2.70 earned run average this past season (albeit with rate stats and fielding-independent marks that suggest it’s more reasonable to expect a low-3.00s ERA than another sub-3.00 mark). Peralta averages nearly 95 mph on his heater, misses bats at a high level, has only slightly worse-than-average command and, crucially, is earning just $8MM next season. That’s his final year before free agency, but even as a one-year rental, a team surrendering young talent to acquire Peralta would know that he’ll likely net a 2027 draft pick, as he’s a virtual lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer.
For luxury-paying clubs, Peralta’s modest salary is particularly enticing. That’s all the truer for teams like the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers, who figure to be in the top penalty tier for at least a third consecutive season. Those clubs are effectively paying double for any subsequent additions to the payroll. The Dodgers are already in the top tax bracket and thus would pay a 110% tax on any new additions to the payroll. The two New York clubs are just shy of the top tax bracket, but even while sitting in the third penalty tier, they’d be subject to a 95% tax. And both are close enough to the fourth-tier threshold that Peralta would put them right up against it or push them over.
For the Braves and Red Sox, the penalties would be far less severe. Atlanta didn’t pay the tax at all last year and is currently in the first penalty tier. They’d receive only a 20% ($1.6MM) slap on the wrist for adding Peralta’s salary to the ledger. The Red Sox would be crossing the tax line for just the second straight season, as they were under the threshold in 2024. They’re currently about $3MM shy of the tax cutoff, per RosterResource. As a second-time offender they’d pay a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the limit. For Peralta, that’d be only a hair over $1.5MM.
In terms of roster fit, it’s pretty easy to see how Peralta would fit onto any of the listed clubs. Atlanta currently has Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez and Hurston Waldrep lined up as its likely top five. Each of Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach and Lopez missed time with injuries in 2025. Lopez started only one game. Sale missed more than two months with fractures in his ribcage. Schwellenbach’s season ended in late June when he suffered a fracture in his right elbow. Strider posted a 4.45 ERA in his first season back from UCL surgery. Waldrep was impressive as a rookie but tossed only 56 1/3 innings in the majors.
The Dodgers certainly don’t “need” more starting pitching, but the old “no such thing as too much pitching” adage applies to veritably any club. Adding Peralta would be about further deepening the club’s October options. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski give the Dodgers an embarrassment of riches, and high-upside younger arms like River Ryan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt are all on the mend from 2024 surgeries. Top prospect Jackson Ferris isn’t far from MLB readiness. It’s a deep group, but the Dodgers probably don’t want to simply presume that all of their more established arms will be healthy for the postseason. Bringing in another top-tier arm to join the group would further bolster their choices as they pursue an elusive threepeat.
The Yankees have yet to make an addition to the big league roster, beyond re-signing Ryan Yarbrough on a cheap one-year deal and selecting righty Cade Winquest from the Cardinals in the Rule 5 Draft. With Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt all ticketed to open the season on the injured list, they could use some rotation help. The Mets, meanwhile, have subtracted more big names than they’ve added this winter. President of baseball ops David Stearns knows Peralta well from his Milwaukee days. The current Mets rotation is heavily reliant on rebounds from Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea as well as notable steps forward from prospects like Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat. The Red Sox have added Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to what was already a pretty deep mix, but Peralta would be a clearer No. 2 option behind ace Garrett Crochet than Gray or right-hander Brayan Bello.
Other teams have surely shown interest in Peralta. Earlier in the offseason, it was reported that the Astros had looked into him, but they’ve since added Mike Burrows in a trade and Tatsuya Imai in free agency. The Orioles have shown interest as well, though Baltimore acquired Shane Baz and re-signed Zach Eflin, at least reducing some urgency. (Peralta would still be a notable and needed upgrade to the top end of the staff.) The Athletic’s report notes that some lower-payroll clubs are also looking into Peralta, given that his $8MM price point is affordable for any team.
Broadly speaking, it stands to reason that any 2026 postseason hopeful in the sport has probably at least gauged the asking price on Peralta. Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that a major league-ready starting pitcher is very likely to be a starting point in any talks regarding Peralta. Milwaukee won an MLB-best 97 games in 2025 and is seen as a favorite in the NL Central as a result. The Brewers know they could also get a compensatory pick in the 2027 draft if and when Peralta departs via free agency. They’re a revenue sharing recipient who doesn’t pay the luxury tax, so that pick would come at the end of the first round. That establishes a pretty reasonable base line that needs to be exceeded in any trade talks, and targeting MLB-ready help for a win-now club is only natural.
A Peralta trade shouldn’t be seen as likely. Milwaukee brass has publicly downplayed the possibility, but the Brewers will never fully close themselves off to trades of any notable stars as they approach free agency. Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Josh Hader near the end of their original windows of club control, after all. However, the Brewers also held onto Willy Adames for the 2024 season, knowing he’d likely reject a qualifying offer and depart via free agency, which is precisely how things played out. Keeping Peralta would give Milwaukee a deep and talented rotation, as he’d be joined by Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, with depth options including Logan Henderson, Tobias Myers and former top prospect Robert Gasser, who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery.