Diamondbacks Rumors

DBacks Acquire Jean Segura, Tyler Wagner From Brewers For Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill, Isan Diaz

By | January 30, 2016 at 5:29pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have acquired shortstop Jean Segura and reliever Tyler Wagner from the Brewers in exchange for starting pitcher Chase Anderson, second baseman Aaron Hill, and prospect Isan Diaz, tweets Keith Law of ESPN. The Brewers will also receive $5.5MM to partially cover the $12MM owed to Hill, hears Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (tweet). The Diamondbacks and Brewers have confirmed the deal.

Segura, soon-to-be 26, was an oft-rumored trade candidate for the rebuilding Brewers. He broke out in 2013 as a 23-year-old with a 3.5 WAR season. He hit a solid .294/.329/.423 with 12 home runs, 44 stolen bases, and league average defense. However, he slumped steeply in the second half of that season, foreshadowing his struggles over the next two campaigns. Since his first full season, Segura has offered replacement level production in 1,141 plate appearances.

In Arizona, Segura will join the defensively-minded Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings. Ahmed is coming off a solid 1.7 WAR season, but his .226/.275/.359 leaves a lot to be desired at the plate. Owings spent most of 2015 at second base where he was expected to return this year. The addition of Segura not only gives the club more depth up the middle, it will give them the opportunity to mix and match offensive and defensive skill sets as needed.

Interestingly, the Angels once included Segura in a package for Zack Greinke (h/t Bill Shaiken of the LA Times). He’ll now have an opportunity to play alongside the ace. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (tweet), Segura will start for the DBacks – probably at second base. However, GM Dave Stewart told reporters including Nick Piecoro of Arizona Central Sports (tweet) that Segura would compete for the shortstop job. Segura has three more seasons of club control. He avoided arbitration with Milwaukee earlier this offseason, signing for $2.6MM. He’s a future non-tender candidate if he does not rebound this season.

The trade creates an opportunity for the Brewers to fully evaluate Jonathan Villar before top prospect Orlando Arcia is ready to join the club. GM David Stearns confirmed that Arcia will begin the year in Triple-A. Villar, who the Brewers acquired from the Astros earlier in the offseason for Cy Sneed, has played in parts of three major league seasons. He’s offered replacement level production to date, but he features an intriguing combination of power and speed for a middle infielder.

Wagner, 25, is a starting pitcher prospect. The righty averaged roughly 90 mph with his fastball in a three start debut last season. In the minors, he was said to top out at 95 mph with his sinker. He has a solid command and control profile but lacks big swing-and-miss stuff. The DBacks have plenty of pitching depth so Wagner will likely report to Triple-A or revert to the bullpen – he was a college closer.

On the Brewers end of the haul, Anderson is the jewel of the trade. The 28-year-old is a reliable changeup specialist. In 267 career innings, he has a 4.18 ERA (4.17 FIP) with 7.28 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9. His stuff performed slightly better in 2014 than 2015 as evidenced by superior strikeout and swinging strike rates. As a slightly homer prone fly ball pitcher, he’s not a great fit for power happy Miller Park (the same was true at Chase Field). Anderson comes with five seasons of club control and will be a member of the rotation.

Hill, the veteran of the trade, has declined steadily since a peak season in 2012. Injuries and playing time battles held him to 353 plate appearances last season. He hit just .230/.295/.345. Entering his age 34 season, he’s owed $12MM in the final year of his contract. Per Haudricourt (tweet), Stearns envisions an active role for Hill mentoring the club’s many young middle infielders. He’s an obvious fit as a platoon mate for Scooter Gennett who rarely plays against left-handed pitching.

The Brewers also acquired a high quality prospect in the form of Diaz. Baseball America rated Diaz the ninth best prospect in the Arizona system. 20 in May, Diaz is coming off a strong season in rookie ball in which he was dubbed the MVP of the Pioneer League. He hit .360/.436/.640 with 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 312 plate appearances. The former second round pick will remain at shortstop for the time being, although his future home may be farther down the defensive spectrum.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks Trying To Trade Aaron Hill

By charliewilmoth | January 24, 2016 at 12:14pm CDT

The Diamondbacks are attempting to trade veteran infielder Aaron Hill, Jon Heyman tweets. Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Diamondbacks were looking to trade a second baseman, potentially clearing space for the team to sign free agent Howie Kendrick. The D-backs have other second basemen who might be more attractive in a trade, like Chris Owings and Brandon Drury, but it appears Hill is the one they’re looking to deal.

Of course, as Heyman points out, trading Hill won’t be easy. For one thing, the middle infield market is still relatively robust, with Kendrick, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins and others still available. Also, Hill is owed $12MM in 2016 and is coming off two straight poor seasons at the plate. He batted .230/.295/.345 in 2015, a line that was bad but not markedly worse than his 2014 performance. And while defensive metrics once marked him as a plus second baseman, they’ve downgraded him to average or slightly below average in recent seasons.

Hill would appear, then, to have no trade value due to his age (33), performance and salary. The Diamondbacks and Reds previously discussed a trade involving Hill and Brandon Phillips. That deal didn’t work out, but it fits the basic form a Hill trade would likely take — the D-backs would likely have to take on another expensive player in return, or at least pay much of Hill’s remaining salary. Of course, if their ultimate goal were to sign Kendrick (which is unclear, since Kendrick declined a qualifying offer and Arizona has previously expressed a strong desire to keep their top remaining draft pick), the Diamondbacks might instead seek a high-salaried veteran who played a position outside the middle infield.

Of course, the Diamondbacks could clear roster space and avoid the headache of trying to trade Hill’s contract by dealing Owings, but Owings plays a decent defensive shortstop and would therefore be more useful in a utility role if the Diamondbacks were to sign Kendrick or another infielder. Hill has not played shortstop since 2006 and spent last season at second base and third, so his tactical value to the Diamondbacks is limited, particularly given that they already have a variety of infield options.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1-21-16

By Steve Adams | January 21, 2016 at 9:05pm CDT

Here are today’s minor signings and outrights from around the league…

The Giants and veteran catcher George Kottaras are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to Major League Spring Training, reports Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The 32-year-old has a history of hitting for power and drawing walks, as evidenced by his lifetime .215/.326/.411 hitter in the Majors. However, he also strikes out at nearly a 24 percent clip and struggles to throw out runners. He’ll be a depth piece in San Francisco, where Buster Posey and Andrew Susac are ahead of him on the depth chart.
Fellow catcher Dan Butler is returning to the Red Sox organization on a minor league deal with a big league Spring Training invite, Heyman also tweets. Boston traded Butler to the Nationals just over one year ago, but he was released at season’s end after hitting .227/.316/.316 at Triple-A Syracuse. Butler received a brief promotion with the 2014 BoSox but has spent much of his career at Triple-A, where he’s a career .242/.325/.386 hitter in 1064 plate appearances.
The Marlins announced that they’ve outrighted first baseman/left fielder Tommy Medica to Triple-A New Orleans. Medica, 27, was designated for assignment earlier this month after being passed up on the depth chart by free-agent signee Chris Johnson. He batted .246/.308/.417 for the 2013-14 Padres but spent the 2015 season at New Orleans, where he hit .259/.314/.364 in 363 trips to the plate.
The D-backs announced that they have outrighted hard-throwing right-hander Matt Stites to Triple-A Reno following last week’s DFA. Stites, 25, was the key piece that the D-backs received in their 2013 trade that sent Ian Kennedy to San Diego, but he’s struggled with his control in both the Majors and minors. He’ll hope for better results in what will be his third stint at Triple-A. (The first two, it should be noted, have been rather brief in nature.)

Diamondbacks Trying To Trade Second Baseman

By Steve Adams | January 21, 2016 at 9:37am CDT

9:37am: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal hears that the D-backs remain reluctant to part with what be the No. 39 pick in this year’s draft (Twitter link).

8:45am: The Diamondbacks are in “active trade talks” and trying to move a second baseman, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Moving one of their current options at the position would allow them to add Howie Kendrick to the fold, Nightengale adds.

Arizona has a number of options at second base, including Aaron Hill, Chris Owings and prospect Brandon Drury. Of the bunch, Hill is clearly the most appealing candidate to move, from Arizona’s perspective. The 33-year-old (34 in March) is set to earn $12MM in 2016 — the final season of a three-year, $35MM extension that was signed a few years back. The first season of that contract, while injury-shortened, was a productive one for Hill, but his bat has gone dormant over the past two seasons, yielding just a .238/.290/.359 slash line since Opening Day 2014.

The D-backs would need to eat the bulk of Hill’s remaining salary or take on a similarly undesirable contract in order to move Hill. Earlier this offseason, there was talk of Arizona sending Hill to Cincinnati in exchange for Brandon Phillips, although those talks reportedly fell through because the Diamondbacks felt they were being asked to take on too much of Phillips’ remaining $27MM in salary. The best bet to move Hill, in my view, would be to do so by taking on a similarly priced veteran to use as the club’s fourth outfielder or bullpen piece. Arizona, after all, has plenty of options around the infield and more rotation candidates than rotation spots following the additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.

The 32-year-old Kendrick would cost the D-backs their second draft pick of the offseason, as they’ve already forfeited their first-round selection (No. 13 overall) in order to sign Greinke. Surrendering that pick is something that GM Dave Stewart has firmly said the team would not do, though it’s always possible that their thinking or Kendrick’s asking price has changed since Stewart made those comments. Kendrick would be an unequivocal upgrade over the team’s collective .220/.266/.340 output from its second basemen last season. While Arizona could hope for better health and production out of Owings — and Stewart has said the team expects as much — adding some degree of certainty by signing Kendrick certainly has merit, especially when considering the lengths to which Arizona has already gone in an effort to build a contender this offseason.

I’ve mentioned since that time that this would be an odd time for the D-backs to draw a line in the proverbial sand and staunchly refuse to surrender further draft pick value. The team has already committed more than $34MM annually to Greinke over a six-year term and parted with an enormous amount of value to add Miller, so there’s little reason to suddenly hit the brakes from where I stand. Kendrick, of course, comes with some question marks — namely a decline in the eyes of defensive metrics — but he’s nonetheless been a steady, productive bat that would function as yet another upgrade to an improved Diamondbacks roster.

Diamondbacks Temporarily Halt Extension Talks With A.J. Pollock

By Mark Polishuk | January 17, 2016 at 5:03pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have, at least temporarily, stopped negotiations with outfielder A.J. Pollock on a contract extension, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. In a text to Piecoro, Snakes GM Dave Stewart said of the negotiations that “We, both sides, have for the time being put that away.”

Pollock is the only one of Arizona’s eight arbitration-eligible players who didn’t reach an agreement before last Friday’s deadline, with Pollock filing for $3.9MM and the team countering with a $3.65MM offer for a 2016 contract. (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.3MM figure for Pollock.) With such a modest gap between the two sides, you would think Pollock and the D’Backs stand a good chance at reaching an agreement before the matter goes to an arbitration hearing.

Both Pollock and the Diamondbacks expressed interest in working out a long-term deal in the wake of his breakout 2015 season. Pollock hit .315/.367/.498 with 20 homers, 39 steals and 111 runs scored in 673 plate appearances last year, and also won a Gold Glove for center field defense that impressed both voters and the advanced metrics (14 Defensive Runs Saved, +6.5 UZR/150). His 6.6 fWAR was topped by only seven other position players in baseball. Pollock’s big season and three remaining years of team control made him a hot commodity on the trade market this winter, with teams like the Braves and Indians asking for Pollock when the D’Backs inquired about their top starting pitchers.

It’s clear that the D’Backs see Pollock as a key part of their future, with team CEO Derrick Hall recently describing the center fielder as “almost untouchable” in trade talks. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams described in that last link, however, Pollock is something of a tricky extension candidate given his age (he just turned 28) and a relative lack of leverage on Arizona’s part. Pollock will already get a nice payday in his first arb-eligible season and he’s scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 season, so he may not feel the urgency to sign an extension now and delay that potentially very lucrative trip to the free agent market by even a year or two — obviously he’d stand a better chance of scoring a major free agent contract entering his age-31 season than he would entering his age-33 season, for instance.

With all this in mind, perhaps it isn’t surprising that the extension talks are on hold for now. It’s also possible that the two sides will get Pollock’s 2016 contract out of the way first before again exploring multi-year scenarios, or the topic could be held off until after the 2016 season entirely.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2016 at 7:30pm CDT

The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Onto the agreements…

Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).

There are plenty more after the jump:

Earlier Updates

Marlins ace Jose Fernandez has agreed to a $2.8MM salary that can reach $3MM via his incentives, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. That deal puts Fernandez comfortably north of his $2.2MM projection. He’ll hope for a full healthy season at the front of Miami’s rotation.
Passan also tweets that Cubs closer Hector Rondon will land a $4.2MM salary, which clears his $3.6MM projection. Rondon racked up 30 saves with a sparkling 1.67 ERA this season and is in line to close in Chicago once again next year.
The Cubs have also agreed to terms with lefty Travis Wood and right-hander Justin Grimm, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (on Twitter). Wood will earn a $6.175MM salary that is within $225K of his $6.4MM projection, and Grimm will take home $1.275MM, exceeding his $1MM projection. Both will play key roles for the Cubs next year, with Wood potentially occupying a swingman role but also facing lefties late in games and Grimm hoping to replicate his 1.99 ERA from 2015.
Sticking with the Cubs, Adam Warren will avoid arb with a $1.7MM deal in his first season with Chicago after a strong 3.29 ERA last season with the Yankees, according to Baseball America’s Josh Norris (on Twitter). That figure is a bit north of Warren’s $1.5MM projection.
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (links to Twitter) that the Twins have avoided arbitration with infielders Eduardo Nunez and Eduardo Escobar. Nunez will receive $1.475MM and Escobar will take him $2.15MM, per Berardino. That puts Nunez right in line with his $1.5MM projection and Escobar $350K ahead of his $1.8MM estimate. Escobar is in line to be Minnesota’s starting shortstop. Berardino also reports that right-hander Casey Fien settled at $2.275MM — a slight bump on top of his $2.2MM projection (Twitter link). He’ll see action in middle relief next year.
The Blue Jays and lefty Aaron Loup have agreed to a $1.05MM salary for the 2016 season, per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (on Twitter). Loup registered a 4.46 ERA but flashed excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers in 42 1/3 innings (46 strikeouts, seven walks). He was projected to earn $900K.
The Rays and catcher Rene Rivera settled at $1.7MM, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That’s $100K more than his $1.6MM projection. Rivera didn’t provide any value with the bat last season but is an excellent pitch-framer and draws strong reviews for his overall defensive prowess. Topkin also tweets that Logan Morrison ($4.2MM), Erasmo Ramirez ($2.375MM) and Hank Conger ($1.5MM) have avoided arbitration. Morrison’s deal is right in line with his projection of $4.1MM, while Ramirez is a bit shy of his $2.8MM figure and the same holds true of Conger and his $1.8MM projection.
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Marwin Gonzalez and the Astros agreed to a $2MM salary — $100K more than his $1.9MM projection. Gonzalez will fill in around the infield as needed next season after a solid all-around year in 2015, when he hit .279/.317/.442.
MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian has news on the Indians’ remaining arb-eligibles: Lonnie Chisenhall gets $2.725MM, Jeff Manship gets $765K and Josh Tomlin earns $2.25MM (links to Twitter). They had been respectively projected at $3MM, $700K and $3.1MM. Tomlin falls a ways shy of his projection, though Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that his salary is fully guaranteed, which is a nice perk, as that’s not the norm for arb contracts.
Jon Heyman tweets that Yasmani Grandal and the Dodgers settled at $2.8MM for the 2016 season. That’s $100K more than the $2.7MM projected for Grandal after a strong first year in L.A., wherein he batted .234/.353/.403 with 16 home runs.
The Rangers and Tanner Scheppers agreed to a $900K salary, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The right-hander had been projected to earn $800K and will look to earn a job in the bullpen next year.
Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that the Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with left-hander Brett Cecil, agreeing to a $3.8MM deal (Twitter link). Cecil’s deal tops his projection by $400K. The southpaw lost the closer’s gig in Toronto last season but rebounded to post strong overall numbers: a 2.48 ERA with 11.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 54 1/3 innings.
Nicholson-Smith also tweets that the Pirates and righty Jared Hughes have agreed to a $2.175MM salary for next season. That falls right in line with his $2.2MM projection. Hughes, 30, logged a 2.28 ERA with 4.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a huge 63.7 percent ground-ball rate in 67 innings last year.
Sticking with the Pirates, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter) that Francisco Cervelli will secure a $3.5MM salary for 2016 in lieu of arbitration. He also reports that lefty Tony Watson will take home $3.45MM. Cervelli’s deal clears his projection by $1MM, while Watson’s falls about the same sum shy. Cervelli had a career-year in 2015, batting .295/.370/.401 with seven home runs. He’s now one year from free agency. Watson, meanwhile, recorded a stellar 1.91 ERA in 75 1/3 innings. He has two years to go before free agency.
Passan also tweets that Indians closer Cody Allen has landed a hefty $4.15MM payday in his first trip through arb, with his saves totals leading him to clear his $3.5MM projection by a fairly sizable margin. Allen was again dominant in 2015, leading the AL with 58 games finished and recording a 2.99 ERA with 12.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 34 saves.
Passan also has the scoop on a trio of Mets (Twitter link): Addison Reed ($5.3MM) Carlos Torres ($1.05MM) and Josh Edgin ($625K). Each figures to see significant time in the ’pen next season, with Reed taking on a prime setup role. Reed will fall $400K shy of his projection, while Torres clears his $800K projection and Edgin lands just slightly north of his $600K projection. Edgin missed the year with Tommy John surgery, while Reed put up a 3.38 ERA in 56 innings and Torres worked to a 4.68 ERA in 57 2/3 frames.
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle tweets that right-hander Josh Fields will get $900K from the Astros in place of an arb hearing. That’s $100K higher than his projection. Fields had an under-the-radar season, posting a 3.55 ERA with 11.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 50 2/3 innings for the ’Stros.
The Rangers announced that they’ve avoided arb with catcher Robinson Chirinos, and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets that he’ll earn $1.55MM next year. That’s nearly identical to his $1.4MM projection and represents a raise on the heels of a .232/.325/.438 season in which he blasted 10 home runs.
The Astros and infielder Luis Valbuena have agreed to terms on a $6.125MM salary for the upcoming season, thereby avoiding arbitration, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter link). That figure surpasses Swartz’s projection by about 5.5 percent, rewarding Valbuena for a season in which he slugged a career-best 25 home runs. Overall, Valbuena batted .224/.310/.438, splitting his time between third base and first base.
The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Anthony Rendon. He’ll earn $2.8MM, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crascnick, which is $300K greater than the sum projected by Swartz. Rendon was injured for much of the 2015 campaign and batted .264/.344/.363 when healthy. He’ll hope to get back to his .287/.351/.473 form from 2014 in the season to come.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that the Brewers and left-handed setup man Will Smith have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.475MM agreement (Twitter link). Smith, 26, quietly had an outstanding season in Milwaukee, pitching to a 2.70 ERA with 12.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings. He’ll be one of Milwaukee’s top late-inning relief arms this season and had been projected at $1.2MM and exceeded that number by $200K.
The Diamondbacks and right-hander Randall Delgado have agreed to a $1.275MM sum for the 2016 season, tweets Heyman. Delgado, who had been projected at $1MM, posted a 3.25 ERA in 72 innings of relief for Arizona last season. Arizona is also in agreement with right-hander Daniel Hudson, tweets Passan, putting him a strong $700K above Swartz’s projection. Hudson returned from a pair of Tommy John surgeries to establish himself as a strong setup option with the D-backs, pitching in the upper 90s with his fastball and recording a 3.86 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 67 2/3 innings.
Heyman also tweets that the Pirates and Jordy Mercer are in agreement on a one-year, $2.075MM deal, clearing his $1.8MM projection. Mercer had a down season in 2015 that included a six-week absence due to a knee injury, but he’ll look to rebound in regular duty at shortstop this year. He batted .244/.293/.320 in 430 PAs last season.
Also via Heyman (links to Twitter), the Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with right-hander Steve Delabar ($835K) and outfielder Michael Saunders ($2.9MM). Delabar, who will compete for a bullpen spot in 2016, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 29 1/3 innings with the Jays this past season. Meanwhile, Saunders scarcely saw the field due to a knee injury that sidelined him for most of the season. Delabar cleared his $700K projection, while Saunders’ $2.9MM projection was an exact match.
The Dodgers and left-hander Luis Avilan have agreed to a $1.39MM salary for the 2016 season, tweets Heyman. He tops his $1.1MM projection on the heels of a 4.05 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 53 1/3 innings split between L.A. and Atlanta.
The White Sox and right fielder Avisail Garcia have avoided arbitration with a one-year, $2.1MM agreement, reports Crasnick (via Twitter). That sum comes up $200K short of the $2.3MM projection from Swartz. Garcia, 24, struggled in his first full season at the Major League level last year, hitting .257/.309/.365 with sub-par contributions in the outfield. He’s still young enough that the Sox can hope for him to tap into his potential, though they’ve also been linked to outfield upgrades.
The Royals have reached one-year agreements with outfielder Jarrod Dyson ($1.725MM), right-hander Louis Coleman ($725K) and catcher Tony Cruz ($975K), reports Heyman (all links to Twitter). Dyson’s figure is just $25K more than his $1.7MM projection, though Coleman fell a ways shy of his $1MM projection. Dyson, who batted .250/.311/.380 with 26 stolen bases in 225 plate appearances last season, could see the lion’s share of playing time in right field for Kansas City this season. Coleman, 30 in April, will compete for a bullpen spot after tossing just three big league innings last year but working to a 1.69 ERA in 64 Triple-A innings. The 29-year-old Cruz will compete for a backup job in KC after hitting .204/.235/.310 as a backup in St. Louis last season. His salary will nearly match his $1MM projection.
Catcher Welington Castillo and the D-backs are in agreement on a one-year deal worth $3.7MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). After being bounced from the Cubs and Mariners with little fanfare in trades last season, Castillo had a huge finish with Arizona, batting .255/.317/.496 with 17 homers in 80 games. Overall, he batted .237/.296/.453 with 19 homers in 378 PAs. Castillo’s $3.7MM salary will clear his $3.6MM by a narrow margin of $100K.

Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey

By Matt Swartz | January 15, 2016 at 8:25am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.

In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.

The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.

In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .

Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.

Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.

Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.

Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.

Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.

It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.

Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.

It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.

It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks To Sign Sam LeCure To Minors Pact

By Jeff Todd | January 14, 2016 at 12:11pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with 31-year-old righty Sam LeCure on a minor league deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports on Twitter. LeCure, a client of BHSC, had spent his entire career in the Reds organization.

Cincinnati had leaned heavily on LeCure over the 2010 through 2014 campaigns, running him out for 300 2/3 innings in that span. He was a solid option, on the whole, putting up a 3.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 versus 3.5 BB/9.

Last year, though, LeCure lost his roster spot and opened the year in Triple-A. Over sixty innings there, he worked to a sub-par 5.25 earned run average. LeCure was able to put up twenty frames of 3.15 ERA ball upon moving back onto the major league roster late in the season. But he also continued a trend of falling strikeout totals and fastball velocity.

Diamondbacks Designate Matt Stites For Assignment

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2016 at 7:41pm CDT

The D-backs announced on Wednesday that they have designated right-hander Matt Stites for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for fellow right-hander Cody Hall, who was acquired from the Giants earlier today in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Stites, 25, was acquired alongside Joe Thatcher and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick in the 2013 trade that sent right-hander Ian Kennedy to the division-rival Padres. Stites posted solid minor league numbers in 2014, recording a 2.89 ERA with a 23-to-9 K/BB ratio in 28 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. However, after those results earned him a trip to the big leagues, he struggled in the Majors. This past season, he saw those difficulties carry over into his minor league work as well, as his 3.86 ERA at the Triple-A level was accompanied by an unsightly 14 walks and 14 strikeouts.

All told, the former 17th-round pick has posted a 7.13 ERA in 41 2/3 innings with the Major League team between the 2014 and 2015 seasons. While those results aren’t encouraging, Stites has averaged a hefty 95.4 mph on his heater over the course of his time in the Majors and does have very strong numbers at the Double-A level. As a prospect, he drew praise for his 94-98 mph heater and sharp slider. Prior to the 2014 campaign, Baseball America ranked him ninth among D-backs farmhands and wrote that he possessed the best control.

Diamondbacks To Acquire Cody Hall

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2016 at 3:03pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have agreed to a deal to acquire righty Cody Hall from the Giants, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Hall was designated for assignment recently.

Hall, 28, reached the majors last year with San Francisco, though he only worked 8 1/3 innings. He entered the year as a top-twenty organization prospect, per Baseball America, after averaging double-digit strikeout rates in his minor league career. Hall spent most of 2015 at Triple-A — his first attempt at that level — and posted a 3.46 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

Arizona could allow Hall an opportunity to compete for one of its final pen slots, though perhaps the likelier scenario is that he ends up back in the minors as a depth piece. Hall was only added to the 40-man last winter, so he has options remaining.

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