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Seth Lugo Declines Player Option With Padres

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Seth Lugo has declined a $7.5MM player option with the Padres, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He’s a free agent and will be permitted to commence negotiations with other teams on Monday.

This was one of the league’s easiest opt-out decisions. Lugo inked a two-year, $15MM guarantee last winter. A longtime reliever with the Mets, he prioritized finding a rotation job. Lugo sought to demonstrate he could hold up as a starter before getting back to the open market.

He did just that. The right-hander worked 146 2/3 innings across 26 starts, pitching to a 3.57 ERA. Lugo struck out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters while keeping his walks to a tidy 6% clip. Now that he has established himself as a mid-rotation starter, he should find a much better guarantee than he had 12 months ago. Even a couple weeks from his 34th birthday, Lugo has a good case for a three-year pact.

The Padres could issue Lugo a $20.325MM qualifying offer. It’s questionable whether they’re willing to risk that kind of one-year salary in an offseason in which they’re expected to slice payroll. San Diego also faces the potential departures of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez (the latter two of whom have complicated option decisions in their contracts) from a rotation they’ll need to address over the coming months.

Padres Claim Tucupita Marcano From Pirates

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The Padres announced they’ve claimed middle infielder Tucupita Marcano off waivers from the Pirates. San Diego also announced that catcher Chandler Seagle and reliever Drew Carlton cleared waivers and were outrighted from the 40-man roster.

Marcano, 24, returns to his original organization. He signed with the Padres as an amateur out of Venezuela in 2016. The left-handed hitter developed into a mid-level prospect and made his MLB debut with San Diego in 2021. Marcano appeared in 25 games before being dealt to Pittsburgh as part of the return for second baseman Adam Frazier.

The Bucs have gotten Marcano into 124 games over the past two seasons. He hasn’t made much of an impact, hitting .221/.267/.334 in 397 trips to the plate. Marcano has demonstrated strong contact skills but without a ton of power, connecting on only five home runs. He hasn’t taken many walks either, leading to the middling offensive numbers.

Marcano’s tenure with the Pirates came to an unceremonious end in August, ironically against the Padres. While running the bases, he tore the ACL in his right knee in an attempt to avoid a tag at third base. That required season-ending surgery. Given the general recovery timeline for ACL injuries, it seems likely he’ll begin next year on the injured list.

Should the Friars keep Marcano on the 40-man roster all winter, he’ll offer multi-positional depth. Marcano can play either middle infield spot, although public defensive marks suggest he’s better suited for second base. He has some corner outfield experience as well. Marcano has one minor league option remaining and is still at least a season away from arbitration eligibility.

The other two players are unsurprising cuts as San Diego clears 40-man space to open the offseason. Carlton, a 28-year-old righty, pitched to a 4.35 ERA in 20 2/3 innings after signing an offseason minor league deal. He briefly appeared at the MLB level with the Tigers between 2021-22 and turned in a 3.00 ERA in 15 Triple-A appearances. His season was unfortunately cut short by elbow inflammation, which sent him to the injured list on July 1.

Seagle is a former 30th-round draftee who received a big league call in the season’s final weekend. He got one at-bat after combining for a .209/.261/.296 line between the top two levels of the minor leagues. Both he and Carlton will be eligible for minor league free agency.

Nelson Cruz To Retire

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Nelson Cruz revealed on the Adam Jones Podcast that he is planning to retire from playing after an upcoming stint in the Dominican Winter League.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY SportsCruz, now 43, was something of a late bloomer but still went on to have an incredibly long and productive career in the big leagues. He didn’t fully establish himself as an everyday big league player until 2009. That was technically his “age-28 season”, but he turned 29 on July 1, just after the standard June 30 cutoff for such distinctions. He had some limited looks in the big leagues with the Brewers and Rangers from 2005 to 2008 but that 2009 season saw him bust out with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases for Texas.

He would follow that with 22 and 29 home runs in the next two years, helping the Rangers reach the World Series in each campaign, though they ultimate lost on both occasions. He continued serving as a potent slugger for a time but that was put on pause when he was connected to the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drugs scandal, receiving a 50-game suspension in August of 2013.

He reached free agency after that campaign and the Rangers gave him a qualifying offer of over $14MM, which he turned down. The draft pick forfeiture tied to that QO and his PED situation led to him lingering on the open market until late February, eventually signing with the Orioles for one year and $8MM, well below the QO he turned down.

He had a monster year for the O’s in 2014, launching 40 home runs and helping that club reach the American League Championship Series. The O’s then gave him a $15.3MM qualifying offer, as players were still allowed to receive multiple QOs at that time. The limit of one per career did not come into place until the 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Cruz turned the QO down again but fared far better in this trip to free agency, landing a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners.

Though he had been an outfielder earlier in his career, he slid more into a full-time designated hitter role over the course of that deal with Seattle. The club likely didn’t mind as he continued mashing, with 163 home runs in that four-year span. He then continued to produce in a similar fashion after joining the Twins, launching 41 more homers in 2019 then 16 in the shortened 2020 season.

He was still crushing baseballs through the first half of 2021, but his production slid after a midseason trade from the Twins to the Rays. He signed one-year deals with the Nationals and Padres for the past two seasons but his offensive production slid to below par. Since he was into his 40s and limited to DH duties only, it became tougher to roster him and the Padres released him in July.

Cruz retires having played in 2,055 regular season games, hitting 464 home runs in that time. His finishes with a batting line of .274/.343/.513, which translates into a wRC+ of 128, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. He made seven All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers, a Roberto Clemente Award and various other honors. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on four separate occasions, winning the 2013 tournament. His Baseball Reference page indicates he earned over $140MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Cruz for his many accomplishments and wish him the best of luck for whatever awaits him in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Took Out A $50MM Loan In September To Cover Payroll

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As reported by Evan Drellich, Dennis Lin, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Padres took out a $50MM loan in September to address “short-term cash flow issues” and cover their player payroll, among other expenses. That $50MM figure is particularly interesting, considering a previous report from Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune that the team is hoping to reduce payroll by about $50MM in 2024. 

The Padres ran a top-five payroll in the sport for a second straight season in 2023, yet they failed to make the playoffs, finishing two games back of a Wild Card berth. Evidently, strong ticket sales (only the Dodgers had higher attendance) weren’t enough to convince ownership to double down in hopes of better results next year. The fact that the team needed to take out a sizeable loan – and that they missed out on postseason revenue – might explain why.

Ultimately, however, it’s hard to say whether this news is an indication of trouble for the Padres or simply a standard practice of running a baseball team. The reporters from The Athletic note that MLB teams “commonly” take out lines of credit, and it could be seen as a good sign that the Padres were deemed suitable for such a sizeable loan in the first place. To that point, the lender was reportedly willing to provide as much as $100MM.

Then again, it’s concerning that the team needed such a large sum of money so late in the season; it’s hard not to read into that as a sign of poor financial planning. Indeed, the news of the loan is said to have taken some MLB officials by surprise.

For what it’s worth, it was the league’s head office that prevented the Padres from taking all $100MM they were offered by their lender. That could be a sign that the team is in real financial trouble – the commissioner doesn’t generally allow teams to take on more debt than they can afford – but it could also be a broader indication that other owners simply don’t approve of San Diego running such a high payroll. After all, the Padres took many by surprise with their aggressive spending over the past few years, showing that a so-called “smaller market” team can indeed compete with the financial giants from New York and L.A. As the reporters from The Athletic point out, some owners consider the Padres’ spending to be reckless – and commissioner Rob Manfred has implied he feels the same way.

Nonetheless, several team officials repeated the idea that this loan was nothing more than business as usual, whether speaking on behalf of the team or not. Padres CEO Erik Greupner said in a statement that the team “established a capital plan for 2023” and that they operated “in accordance with that plan.” On a similar note, an anonymous team official told Drellich, Lin, and Rosenthal, “We anticipated we may need [the loan] at some point this year. We’re not in crisis.”

Another anonymous official told The Athletic, “The levels of payroll that we’ve been at have probably reasonably been in excess of what we could have supported, but it was part of the larger plan.”

Still, the Padres’ financial situation is something to monitor going forward. If temporarily spending more than they could afford on player payroll was always part of the team’s master plan, then it remains to be seen how the rest of the plan will play out. This past season certainly didn’t go as expected, and several of the team’s top contributors could become free agents in the coming days. It will be challenging to fill those holes while significantly reducing payroll.

In other words, it’s hard to imagine the on-field product improving next season without suitable replacements for Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo (pending his opt-out decision) – and even more so if the team trades Juan Soto. Unfortunately, that might be the only way they can reduce payroll by such a large amount. Per roster resource, the team already has an estimated 2024 payroll of $190MM and an estimated luxury tax payroll of $242.9MM. Soto alone is projected to make $33MM in arbitration, per MLBTR’s Matt Swartz.

MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Padres Considering Phil Nevin, Benji Gil As Managerial Candidates

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Former Angels manager Phil Nevin and Angels infield coordinator Benji Gil are on the Padres’ radar for interviews as the club continues its managerial search, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli (both links to X).  Nevin might interview this week while Gil “is in preliminary discussions” about a potential interview.

Nevin has plenty of Padres ties, as he lives just outside San Diego and played seven (1999-2005) of his 12 Major League seasons in a Padres uniform.  Since retiring from playing, Nevin has had a lengthy career as a coach and manager in the majors and minors, culminating in his first MLB managerial gig with the Angels over the last two seasons.  Taking over as Los Angeles’ interim skipper when Joe Maddon was fired in June 2022, Nevin was properly made the manager following the season, though given only a one-year contract.  Nevin posted an 119-149 overall record as the Angels’ manager, and he wasn’t given a new deal following the 2023 campaign as the Halos chose to instead look for a new dugout boss.

Gil has never managed at the Major League level, and has been on the Angels’ coaching staff for only the last two seasons.  Still, the 51-year-old Gil has the past experience of an eight-year playing career in the bigs, as well as some managerial experience outside of the affiliated minors.  Gil has worked as a manager in Mexican baseball, most notably helming Mexico’s national teams during the 2020 Summer Olympics and during the 2023 World Baseball Classic.  The Angels reportedly had interest in Gil as a possible candidate for their own managerial vacancy, though it isn’t yet known if the former infielder has sat down for a former interview with the Angels’ upper management.

In a sense, the two candidates represent the four (non-interim managers) who have run the Padres’ dugout during A.J. Preller’s tenure as the club’s president of baseball operations.  Nevin is a veteran baseball man with past managerial experience, like Bud Black (who Preller inherited Bud Black as his first skipper) and Bob Melvin (who managed the Padres over the last two seasons).  In between those hires, Preller went with Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, both first-time managers with relatively little coaching experience on a Major League staff.

This same dynamic exists between the other two known candidates for the San Diego job.  Bench coach Ryan Flaherty has never managed at the MLB level but has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, while senior associate Mike Shildt was the Cardinals’ skipper from 2018-21.  Flaherty and Shildt are considered the favorites to be the next Padres’ manager, though Preller said that the team would be exploring external candidates out of more than due diligence.  “We’re going to make sure we exhaust all the different possibilities to get the right choice….We want to try to get it right,” Preller said.

Ghiroli also notes that Eric Chavez is “no longer expected to be in the mix” after garnering some level of interest from the Padres in their search.  Chavez has long been seen as a possible future manager, and he has worked on the Mets’ staff for the last two seasons, including a bench coach role in 2023.  Since the Mets are themselves looking for a new manager to replace Buck Showalter, Chavez’s future in New York could well be in flux, though it appears he won’t be part of the Padres’ search.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

NL West Notes: Kelly, Pham, Dodgers, Padres, Preller

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Merrill Kelly’s gem of an outing in Game 2 has made him the talk of baseball, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal took a look back at the right-hander’s unique path to the World Series stage.  Beginning his career in the Rays’ farm system, Kelly signed with the KBO League’s SK Wyverns and spent four seasons pitching in South Korea, despite feeling an urge to return to North American baseball halfway through that stint.  Still, pitching in the KBO League sparked Kelly’s career to the point that Diamondbacks had interest in a free agent deal during the 2018-19 offseason, and Kelly signed a two-year, $5.5MM deal with club options attached for 2021 and 2022.

This was the only multi-year offer Kelly received that winter, so he jumped at the chance at some extra security as he made his MLB debut at age 30.  Between that initial contract and a subsequent extension signed prior to the 2022 season, Kelly’s time in Arizona has now included five seasons, at least $32.5MM in guaranteed salary, and now a key role in the postseason.  Kelly has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and 24 innings in these playoffs, and holds an interesting distinction as the first pitcher to earn a win in both the Korean Series (helping the Wyverns capture the 2018 title) and the World Series.

Some more from around the NL West….

  • Before the Diamondbacks picked up Tommy Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline, the Dodgers were known to be one of several other teams who considered acquiring the veteran outfielder.  Pham told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to join the Dodgers last offseason, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman twice turned down overtures from Pham’s agent, as L.A. was focused on adding a left-handed hitting outfielder instead.  David Peralta ended up being that lefty swinging outfielder, and while Peralta had a subpar season, Pham hit .256/.328/.446 over 481 combined PA with the Mets and D’Backs this season.  Pham has continued to contribute during Arizona’s playoff run, including a four-hit night in Game 2 of the World Series.
  • A.J. Preller’s management style as the Padres’ president of baseball operations has come under increased criticism due to the team’s disappointing 2023 season, as well as the reported discord between Preller and now-former manager Bob Melvin.  Preller spoke with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters about what he is looking for in hiring the Padres’ next skipper, with Acee adding details and anecdotes within the piece related to Preller’s approach, his (to some, overbearing) attention to detail, and the communication breakdown that occurred between Preller and Melvin over the last year.

Padres Notes: Christenson, Soto

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Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco.  Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants.  Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.

  • With the Cubs and Yankees both already rumored to be eyeing Juan Soto this offseason, the trade speculation about the Padres star isn’t likely to end until he is either extended by San Diego, or until a trade actually happens.  Of course, it isn’t yet clear if the Padres are willing to move Soto at all this winter, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner hears from a league source that if Soto is dealt, it might not happen until closer to the trade deadline.  Dealing Soto that late would naturally reduce the trade package San Diego would receive in return, yet for a Padres team desperate to contend in 2024, they might first want to see if they can get on track with Soto in the lineup before considering a deal.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Juan Soto

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The Cubs are reportedly among the teams that have interest in dealing for Padres superstar Juan Soto this offseason, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, who reports that Chicago will be “involved” in Soto’s market. It’s the second report this week to suggest a potential trade partner for the Padres in a Soto deal, as earlier reporting indicated that the Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding Soto’s availability.

Reports have indicated that the Padres will look to cut payroll this offseason by as much as $50MM. With key pieces of the club’s pitching staff like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo likely ticketed for free agency this winter, that leaves the club minimal room to either re-sign or replace those arms as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2023 campaign that saw them miss the postseason with an 82-80 record. A trade of Soto, who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to receive $33MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, would free up plenty of budget space for the Padres this offseason while also providing an influx of young talent that could impact the club in 2024 and beyond.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a relatively surprising season that saw them exceed expectations. Rather than the expected sell-off that would have seen them deal Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, the Cubs picked up third baseman Jeimer Candelario and reliever Jose Cuas at the trade deadline and entered September in good shape to return to the postseason in a full campaign for the first time since 2018. Unfortunately, the club collapsed down the stretch with a 7-15 record over their final 22 games. Ultimately, the club finished with an 83-79 record, just one game back of the Diamondbacks and Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.

With Bellinger set to hit free agency this offseason, replacing the outfielders 134 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR figures to be a key focus of the offseason in Chicago. Soto, who slashed .275/.410/.519 with a 155 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in characteristically excellent 2023 campaign, would certainly fill the gap in the club’s offense left by Bellinger’s impending departure. That being said, Soto’s fit in Chicago is imperfect. Most notably, the club has both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked up to patrol the outfield corners through the 2026 campaign, complicating Soto’s positional fit on the team. While Happ has plenty of experience in center field, he made no appearances at the position in 2023 and played just 12 innings there in 2022; his last season as the club’s regular center fielder was in 2020, his age-25 campaign.

Of course, that’s to say nothing of Chicago’s outfield-heavy crop of prospect talent residing in the upper minors, headlined by top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his elite center field defense. Both Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario made their big league debuts this September, while Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Brennen Davis are also limited to the outfield. Of course, that logjam could be cleared by including one or more of the aforementioned prospects in the return package for Soto, though even in that case the Cubs would likely be forced to play Soto or Happ primarily at DH in 2023 upon the arrival of Crow-Armstrong.

Another potentially complicating factor for the Cubs is Soto’s pending free agency. With Soto set to hit the open market following the 2024 season and the Cubs still building up toward contention, it’s fair to wonder if a club better situated for a World Series run in 2024 would be more aggressive in looking to acquire Soto than the Cubs. Although an acquiring club could certainly look to extend Soto to a long-term deal after dealing for him, agent Scott Boras is known for encouraging his clients to establish their value on the open market and Soto previously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals earlier in his career.

The Cubs have rarely shown an appetite for megadeals at that level, as evidenced by last offseason’s signing of Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM deal in lieu of a pursuit of another top shortstop like Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, both of whom signed commitments spanning a decade or longer. That said, it’s worth noting that Soto is far younger than the typical free agent. Swanson’s current deal in Chicago runs through his age-35 season; Soto could sign a 10-year deal next offseason and celebrate his 36th birthday during October of the final year of that contract.

Levine goes on to discuss a potential return package for Soto if the Padres and Cubs were to agree on a trade. He notes that utility player Christopher Morel has garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, and that sources indicated the Padres are particularly high on him. Morel hit well during his sophomore campaign in 2023, slashing .247/.313/.508 with 26 home runs. Morel primarily served as Chicago’s DH this season, though he logged time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop throughout the season. While Morel has proven playable all around the diamond, he’s appeared to be a below-average fielder at most of those positions. His best defensive position appears to be second base, though in Chicago he’s blocked at the keystone by 2023 Gold Glove finalist Nico Hoerner, who’s under contract through 2026. Between Morel’s bat, versatility, and pre-arbitration status, he figures to be a sought-after piece in trade discussions with the Cubs this offseason even in spite of his defensive shortcomings.

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