Rays Rumors

Rays, Dusten Knight Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | February 10, 2022 at 1:35pm CDT

The Rays have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent righty Dusten Knight, per the team’s official transactions log.

Knight, 31, made his big league debut with the Orioles this past season after spending parts of eight seasons in the minors. A former 28th-round pick by the Giants (2013), Knight parlayed a strong Triple-A showing — 1.30 ERA, 27-to-12 K/BB ratio in 27 2/3 frames at the time of his promotion — into his first call to the big leagues. Things didn’t go as smoothly in Baltimore, however, as Knight yielded a pair of runs in one inning during his debut effort. He appeared in a total of seven games and was ultimately tagged for 10 runs (nine earned) on 11 hits and five walks with 11 strikeouts through 8 2/3 frames.

Rocky showing in his debut season notwithstanding, Knight has a solid track record in Triple-A, where he’s posted a 3.11 ERA with a 23% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in parts of three seasons — a total of 104 1/3 innings. On the whole, in Knight’s eight minor league seasons, he’s surrendered just 32 home runs in 397 innings of work while whiffing more than 27% of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

By Tim Dierkes | February 8, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts. Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet. Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point. Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place. Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market. We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets. The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars. One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected. For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three. Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll. Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt. Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration. He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March. Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+. Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards. It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson. He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected. The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal. Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game. The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2. Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018. It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends. Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+. In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019. Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19. He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021. Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors. The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing. A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining. We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022. The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3. Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation. We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration. Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA. While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01. He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September. Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency. He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4. Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate. It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out. Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday. Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time. In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best. Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September. He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas? He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5. Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post. The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022. He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate. Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6. After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72. Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either. So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable. He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6. Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings. The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball. The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout. They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again. That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary. Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable. I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen. The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7. Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons. He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards. With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario. Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017. He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger. Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field. Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over. The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8. Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list. Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency. They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH. A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano. But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021. It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested? Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game. After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties. He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21. Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July. He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old. He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining. I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH. The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9. J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022. He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020. This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October. By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart. While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22. As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit. Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21. A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well. It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average. It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position. On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs. While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis. I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10. Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here. As such, he’s the least likely to be traded. In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20. Escobar is also capable of playing second base. McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well. It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays. Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected. A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20. Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period. A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well. McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021. McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month. He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat. 30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11. Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job. As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well. Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career. WAR is always tricky with catchers. FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross. The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency. Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras. At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload. The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending. A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends. A midseason trade is a possibility as well. The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12. Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade. He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19. His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain. Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19. He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration. He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return. Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13. Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi. After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th. Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month. In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches. In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury. Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart. 32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year. He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings. You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season. The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14. Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production. This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee. He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time. We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year. He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry! We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Gerald Williams Passes Away

By Steve Adams | February 8, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

Former Yankees, Mets, Devil Rays, Braves, Brewers and Marlins outfielder Gerald Williams passed away today at 55 years of age, former teammate and close friend Derek Jeter announced (via the Players’ Tribune).

“Gerald Williams passed away this morning after a battle with cancer,” Jeter said in his statement announcing the saddening news. “To my teammate and one of my best friends in the world, rest in peace, my brother. My thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Liliana, and their whole family.”

Williams, originally a 14th-round pick by the Yankees back in 1987, debuted as a 25-year-old during the 1992 season — the first step in what would become a 14-year career at the MLB level. That journey took him to six different organizations and spanned 1168 games. Williams, nicknamed “Ice,” posted a career .255/.301/.410 batting line with 85 home runs, 183 doubles, 18 triples, 106 stolen bases, 474 runs scored and another 365 runs driven in. Yankee fans may fondly remember an impressive first-inning grab by Williams back in May or 1996, which seemed innocuous at the time but wound up proving a pivotal play in what would eventually become a Doc Gooden no-hitter (YouTube link).

Williams and Jeter were teammates for the Yankees’ postseason appearance in 1995, and he returned to the playoffs with Atlanta in both 1998 and 1999. He played a huge role in the Braves’ 3-1 National League Division Series win over the Astros in ’99, going 7-for-18 (.389) with a double, a pair of runs scored, three RBIs and a stolen base in that four-game set. A member of both the 1996 Yankees and 2003 Marlins, Williams received a pair of World Series rings (even though the Yankees traded him to the Brewers in August of ’96).

Williams’ two best seasons came with the ’98 Braves, when he hit .305/352/.504 with 10 homers in a part-time role, and in 2000 with Tampa Bay, when he saw regular action in the outfield. Williams logged a career-high 682 plate appearances in his first of two seasons with the then-Devil Rays, adding in a career-best 21 home runs, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and 12 steals.

Most pro ball players can only dream of a 14-year run at the game’s top level — and that’s particularly true among players selected well down the draft board, as was the case with Williams. We at MLBTR offer our condolences to Williams’ family, his friends, his former teammates and the thousands of fans who took joy in rooting him on over the course of his decade-plus in the Majors.

Quick Hits: Rays Ballpark, Rockies, Bleday

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2022 at 10:19pm CDT

A new ballpark in the Ybor City area of Tampa would cost roughly $892MM, as per a study commissioned by the Tampa Sports Authority. According to Charlie Frago and C.T. Bowen of The Tampa Bay Times, the price tag would cover a ballpark with a 27K capacity, intended to be the Rays’ new home stadium for an entire season, rather than a split-season situation like the Rays’ now-scuttled proposal to play games in both Tampa and Montreal.

The cost of the Ybor City ballpark includes a roof, which is essential for playing games in Florida during the summer. (The Rays wouldn’t be using the stadium for Spring Training games, as the team may be planning a new spring camp site in nearby Pasco County.) Public revenue for the ballpark could be raised by some increased property taxes on local developers within the “ballpark district,” though it remains to be seen how much of the total cost would be covered by the city and how much would be covered by the Rays themselves. The club previously indicated they would be willing to spend around $350MM towards construction of a new ballpark, though that was based on the concept of a stadium costing around $700MM and in use for only the non-Montreal portion of the schedule. The Rays didn’t issue a public comment on the TSA’s study.

Trade Candidate: Manuel Margot

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2022 at 7:43pm CDT

Kevin Kiermaier has been a fixture in Rays-related trade rumors for some years now, and this trend continued when Tampa reportedly discussed Kiermaier with the Phillies and other teams just prior to the start of the lockout. Kiermaier’s contract (a six-year, $53.5MM extension signed in March 2017) is relatively outsized by the Rays’ modest payroll standards, and as Kiermaier is now entering the final year of that deal, there stands a greater chance that a team in need of center field help will finally step in to make Kiermaier off the Rays’ books.

Any number of teams stand out as possible fits in a Kiermaier trade based on a variety of factors, including how much of the $14.5MM still owed to Kiermaier can best be absorbed into another team’s payroll. It’s possible Tampa Bay might be open to a deal that sees the Rays accept a minimal prospect return in exchange for a team simply taking all of Kiermaier’s remaining salary, or perhaps the Rays might add a prospect along with Kiermaier to facilitate this semi-salary dump.

But, there’s another wrinkle that could be involved in any Kiermaier negotiations. If such talks involve how much of Kiermaier’s salary will be covered by either side, it seems likely that at least one team has asked the Rays “hey, what about your other less-expensive center fielder entering his last year of team control?”

That would be Manuel Margot, scheduled for free agency following the 2022 season and projected to earn $5MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Seen as a natural center field successor to Kiermaier in the event of a trade, Margot would likely be a replacement for 2022 alone, given how the Rays generally only look to extend players in the early stages of their careers. If Margot isn’t a long-term answer, therefore, he himself stands out as a trade chip for a Rays front office that has traditionally been open to dealing almost anyone on their roster.

Margot is no stranger to switching teams, having already been part of two prominent trades in his career. The outfielder was part of the four-player package dealt from the Red Sox to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel in November 2015, and then Padres then shipped him to Tampa almost exactly two years ago to the day. That deal saw the Padres acquire Emilio Pagan for Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll, and it’s a trade that now looks like a solid win for the Rays given how Pagan has struggled over his two years in San Diego.

Margot, meanwhile, has contributed 2.0 fWAR over his 172 games in a Rays uniform, largely due to his excellent defense. As per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, in fact, Margot was the best overall defensive outfielder in baseball last year, with a league-best +16 OAA. The UZR/150 (+3.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (+13) metrics largely back up that assessment, as Margot played 656 2/3 innings in right field, 182 innings in center, and 122 2/3 innings in left in 2021.

Offensively, Margot is much more of a mixed bag. His 95 wRC+ and 96 OPS+ over his two seasons in Tampa is only slightly below average, and a .258/.317/.375 slash line over 623 plate appearances is passable considering what Margot brings to the table with his glovework. Margot also doesn’t strike out often, and has excellent speed, even if that speed has only translated into moderate success on the basepaths (25 steals in 37 chances with the Rays).

In general, however, Margot isn’t a major threat at the dish. He hasn’t shown much power or an ability to consistently draw walks, and while Margot may make plenty of contact, the quality of that contact is well below-average. Margot’s hard-hit ball rates and barrel rates have both been subpar every season from 2017-21. As one might expect from a right-handed bat, Margot’s career splits against southpaws (.760 OPS) are better than his numbers against righty pitching (.663 OPS).

All in all, Margot may not be an ideal fit as an everyday outfielder, but he is an ideal fourth outfielder or platoon partner. His ability to play all over the outfield makes Margot a particularly valuable piece for a Rays team that values flexibility, as Margot is a natural complement to the left-handed hitting Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Brett Phillips (plus Margot has also spelled the righty-swinging Randy Arozarena on occasion).

While he might be a good roster fit for the Rays, however, is Margot a fit for $5MM? That projected figure would represent the fifth-highest 2022 salary on Tampa Bay’s books, behind Kiermaier, Corey Kluber ($8MM), Mike Zunino ($7MM) and Tyler Glasnow’s $5.8MM arbitration projection. Since the Rays are always keeping a close eye on their budget, Margot’s $5MM figure may be deemed too pricey for what he brings in a backup outfield role.

Phillips, it should be noted, has hit .204/.301/.421 in 351 PA over the last two seasons. It isn’t exactly an offensive breakout, but it does represent a 101 wRC+/102 OPS+ that is at least a tick higher than Margot, and Phillips also brings comparable fielding and speed.

Top prospect Josh Lowe is also waiting in the wings, after playing his first two MLB games last season. Lowe is eyed as the longer-term answer in center field anyway, and seems likely to get a good chunk of playing time in 2022 regardless of who may or may not still be around in the Rays’ outfield.

There would be risk in counting on Lowe and Phillips to handle center field in the event of another Kiermaier absence, as Kiermaier’s well-documented injury history means that Tampa Bay simply can’t count on him for a full season. Arozarena or even switch-hitter Vidal Brujan could be deployed in center field in a pinch, to add a right-handed element to a center field mix that would be lefty-heavy if Margot wasn’t around. We also can’t rule out the possibility that the Rays could trade Margot and then acquire another outfielder in a future move, finding another Margot-esque player on the market available at a lower cost.

As mentioned earlier, you really can’t rule much out when it comes to potential Rays trades. It stands to reason that Kiermaier would be the preferred trade chip, yet if the questions about his health and salary prove to be too much of an obstacle, Tampa Bay might pivot to the next name down on the center field depth chart. Even if Margot lacks Kiermaier’s upside as an everyday player, his lower salary and comparable skillset would probably appeal to roughly the same number of outfield-needy teams. If anything, Margot’s lower salary might even bring more teams into the mix.

Twins Sign Former Top Pick Tim Beckham To Minors Deal

By James Hicks | February 5, 2022 at 12:31pm CDT

The Twins have signed infielder Tim Beckham, the top overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft, to a minor-league deal, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported this morning. Darren Wolfson of Minneapolis’ KSTP News reports that the deal will pay Beckham roughly $1MM should he make the big-league roster.

Beckham signed with the Rays for a then-record $6.15MM (the Giants gave Buster Posey, drafted fifth overall the same year, $6.2MM shortly thereafter) but never quite hit his stride in the minors, posting a solid-if-unspectacular .275/.328/.389 line as a 19-year-old at Low-A Bowling Green in 2009 and a similar .256/.346/.359 line at High-A Charlotte in 2010. Near-identical numbers at Double-A Montgomery in 2011 earned him a 24-game stint at Triple-A Durham, but he hit his first major snag in 2012, when a second positive test for what MLB calls “drugs of abuse” (a set of non-performance-enhancing recreational drugs that includes marijuana) landed him a 50-game suspension.

After repeating Triple-A in 2013 (where his .276/.342/.387 batting line again effectively matched his standard minor-league output), Beckham logged eight trips to the plate across five games in the bigs after a September call-up. A torn ACL suffered during an offseason workout robbed the one-time top prospect of his 2014 season, and his production thereafter never approached the lofty expectations attached to a top overall pick. After posting a .247/.299/.421 line in 791 plate appearances across parts of four seasons in Tampa, the Rays shipped him to the Orioles for pitcher Tobias Myers at the 2017 trade deadline.

That 2017 season remains Beckham’s best, with his .278/.328/.454 overall line (including a .306/.348/.523 mark in 50 games in Baltimore) representing a clear high-water mark; his 22 homers, 62 RBIs, and 2.5 bWAR were also all career bests. In total, Beckham, who hasn’t seen the majors since logging time at five positions in 88 games with Seattle in 2019, has tallied a serviceable .249/.302/.431 triple-slash in parts of six big-league seasons. His 2019 season ended early after he tested positive for the anabolic steroid Stanozolol, earning him an 80-game suspension per the terms of MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

While it’s clear that Beckham — who’ll play at age 32 in 2022 — will never reach the ceiling many envisioned for the consensus top high school prospect in the 2008 draft, his career numbers suggest he might still be a useful big-league player, particularly given his positional versatility. The Twins are probably set at the corners between Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sano, but their middle infield remains in flux. Jorge Polanco is a certainty to man either second or shortstop — Luis Arraez could shift to an everyday role at the keystone if Polanco slots in at short — but manager Rocco Baldelli may prefer to move Arraez between second and third, particularly should the Twins look to keep Donaldson healthy through regular time at DH.

Royce Lewis (a former top pick himself, and who missed all of 2021 with his own ACL tear) remains the likely shortstop of the future in Minnesota, but he hasn’t played since 2019 and isn’t likely to see the bigs in 2022 unless he blows upper-minors competition out of the water for at least a few months. While the Twins were active at the periphery on some bigger names ahead of the lockout and will likely at least do their due diligence on Trevor Story whenever it ends, they’re much likelier to look for a short-term fix.

There’s every reason to expect Beckham to get a real shot to compete for a bench role in the Twin Cities, particularly if the club’s plan includes Arraez assuming a more regular starting role. As things stand now, he’d likely compete with Nick Gordon and perhaps prospect Austin Martin (who’s never played above Double-A but could be given a shot to compete for the starting role at short) for a utility role on the Twins bench.

Though he hasn’t seen the majors since 2019, Beckham did have his best minor-league seasons in 2021. He posted a .279/.330/.546 line in 45 games with the Charlotte Knights, the Triple-A affiliate of the White Sox. If Beckham doesn’t make the big-league roster, the Twins could also look to stash him at Triple-A St. Paul as injury cover.

Latest On Rays’ Stadium Situation

By Darragh McDonald | February 5, 2022 at 10:44am CDT

Back in 2019, Major League Baseball authorized the Tampa Bay Rays to pursue a plan that would involve splitting their home games between Florida and Montreal. However, just a few weeks ago, the league pulled the rug out from under those attempts. That leaves the club in a ticking clock scenario, as their lease at Tropicana Field runs through 2027, giving them until that time to figure out a different path forward.

One option that has at least been discussed is building a stadium on the land currently occupied by the Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, per a report from Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times. The airport is located right on the bay, just a short drive from Tropicana Field.

As noted by Wright, the mayor of St. Petersburg, Ken Welch, recently addressed the situation on Twitter. “St. Pete is back in the game!,” he tweeted. “I was excited to meet yesterday with the Rays and County leadership. Together with our City Council and community partners, we have re-engaged with urgency to keep baseball in the Sunshine City.” The mayor sent a memo to city council members saying that he wants to study the airport site for “current and potential future community impact.” Wright also quotes Pinellas County Commission Chairperson Charlie Justice on the matter, who says, “The bottom line is, it’s good after every decade or 20 years to look and say, ‘OK, what’s happening. This is 100 acres of valuable land.'” Justice adds, “Does it make sense to keep doing it? Does it need to be changed? We are open to that opportunity.” The plan is somewhat complicated by the fact that the airport is also considering expanding, as detailed by Wright.

However, despite that acknowledgement that the airport site was considered, Justice and Pinellas County Administrator Barry Burton told Wright that there was more focus on other options, such as redeveloping the Tropicana Field or Al Lang Stadium locations. The latter site has previously hosted a ballpark, serving as the spring training venue for various teams over the years, including the Rays, back in the Devil Rays days. However, in 2011, it was turned into a soccer field and is the current home of the Tampa Bay Rowdies of of the USL Championship.

It seems that all options are still in the preliminary discussions stage, which makes sense given that the sister-city plan only died fairly recently. Decisions will have to be made in the near future though, given the limited amount of time remaining on the team’s lease at Tropicana. In a recent poll of MLBTR readers, more than two thirds of voters expect the team to eventually leave the Tampa/St. Pete area.

Tyler Glasnow: “Would Much Prefer” To Stay With Rays

By Anthony Franco | February 2, 2022 at 5:40pm CDT

Tyler Glasnow is among the higher-profile trade candidates around the league. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery last August and will miss at least the bulk of the 2022 campaign. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM arbitration salary in his second-to-last year of club control, Glasnow could find himself on the move after the lockout. It’s possible the low-payroll Rays would prefer to reallocate those funds to more immediate help as they try for a third straight division title.

If Glasnow had his way, though, he’d stick in Tampa Bay. The 28-year-old chatted with Chris Rose of Jomboy Media during a recent episode of The Chris Rose Rotation (video link on YouTube). Asked whether he’d remain a member of the Rays, Glasnow noted some uncertainty but flatly stated that’d be his preference.

“Your guess is as good as mine,” he replied.”I hope. I really, really hope. I didn’t get traded before the lockout, so that’s a good sign. … I think if somebody were to call the Rays and give them a really awesome deal or something, (president of baseball operations Erik Neander) is not going to be like ’no.’ He has to listen to everything. That’s just how being a GM is.

But we have a really good relationship. Time will tell, but I would much prefer to stay a Ray. It would be nice to watch everyone in the beginning of the season and how good the team is and how young everyone is and then try to weave my back in and contribute.”

As Glasnow implied, it seems there’s a chance he’ll make it back to the mound late during the upcoming season. The Southern California native suggested he’s soon to begin throwing from 45 feet, the first time since going under the knife that he’ll pick up a ball. Glasnow noted there’s sure to be some variability in recovering from such a significant procedure and pointed to the many hurdles still in front of him, adding that he’s taking his rehab “day-by-day, week-by-week.” Yet he also suggested he has progressed as planned to this point and didn’t rule out the possibility of returning in August or September.

If the Rays do hold onto Glasnow, it’d be a huge boon for the club if he could make a late-season return. Over 14 starts last year, he worked 88 innings of 2.66 ERA/2.92 SIERA ball. The 6’8″ hurler punched out a massive 36.2% of batters faced against a solid 7.9% walk percentage. Glasnow has still yet to exceed 111 2/3 frames during an MLB season, but his rate production since the start of 2019 has been elite. Over the past three years, 156 hurlers have worked at least 150 innings as a starting pitcher. Glasnow ranks fifth among that group in ERA (2.80) and FIP (2.87) and sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.1 percentage points).

If Glasnow can hit the ground running late in the season — even if he’s forced to work in shorter stints — that’d be an impact boost for the Rays (or a potential acquiring team) if they remain in the thick of the playoff race. Even if the club has fallen out of contention by that point, getting Glasnow some innings so he can enter the 2023 season with fewer question marks would be welcome. It remains to be seen whether a late-season comeback will be viable, but it’s encouraging to hear it currently remains a possibility.

Glasnow and Rose go on to speak about the Rays’ stadium situation, including the organization’s since-killed plans to split seasons between Tampa Bay and Montreal. They also address the ongoing lockout and the pitcher’s day-to-day routine during his rehab process among a wide-ranging conversation. Rays fans, in particular, will want to check out the interview in full.

Rays Notes: Hess, Kiermaier, First Basemen

By Mark Polishuk | January 29, 2022 at 9:59am CDT

Right-hander David Hess announced back in October that a cancerous germ cell tumor had been discovered in his chest, and he would be undergoing chemotherapy treatments to address the issue. Fortunately, Hess provided a great update on his condition yesterday on Twitter, saying that he had “been ’cured’ and cleared for all activity! There’s a spot that we’re watching but expect to clear in a few weeks. I can’t thank everyone enough for the prayers, support, and love through this. Time to get back to work and on a mound hopefully soon.”

A veteran of four MLB seasons, Hess joined the Rays on a minor league contract back in August and appeared in one Major League game for the team, while also twice being designated for assignment and then outrighted off the 40-man roster. Hess elected free agency after the season but rejoined the Rays on another minors deal in November. With this health scare now hopefully behind him, the 28-year-old Hess can now refocus on baseball and look to win a bullpen job in Spring Training.

Trade Candidate: Tyler Glasnow

By Anthony Franco | January 24, 2022 at 7:59pm CDT

The Rays find themselves in a tricky position with regards to Tyler Glasnow. The 6’8″ right-hander is probably the team’s most talented pitcher. Last season, he looked on the way towards solidifying himself among the best in the sport. Through his first 14 starts and 88 innings, Glasnow posted a 2.66 ERA with a fantastic 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.9% walk percentage.

Glasnow has always had the raw stuff to miss bats in droves, but as he entered his mid-20s, he’d seemingly found the control to match. He has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, his health hasn’t yet allowed him reach that upside. Glasnow missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain. He stayed healthy during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he didn’t make it through 2021 unscathed.

Last June, Glasnow suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing arm. After unsuccessfully attempting to rehab the injury, the California native underwent Tommy John surgery two months later. That obviously brought his 2021 season to a close, and it’ll likely cost him all of 2022 as well. The timing of that procedure leaves the Tampa Bay front office with a decision to make regarding his long-term future in the organization.

Glasnow is arbitration eligible for the third of four times this offseason. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2023 season. With next season likely a wash, Glasnow’s club is looking at one year (2023) of production before he can test the open market. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary this year, and he’d likely earn the same amount the following season.

So that’s around $12MM over two years for one season of Glasnow’s services. Given the caliber of pitcher he is, that could be a bargain if he returns to form in 2023. Yet as Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last summer, it’s not clear how heavy a workload a team could reasonably anticipate Glasnow to work that year even if his recovery goes as planned. While he shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of 2023 — barring unexpected setbacks in his rehab process — he might not be equipped to shoulder a 180-inning workload. Between injuries and the pandemic, Glasnow will have tossed just 241 2/3 MLB innings between 2019-22, including the postseason (assuming he misses all of next year).

As is typically the case with the Rays, there’s also their team spending limitations to consider. Tampa Bay entered last season with a player payroll a bit south of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including arbitration projections, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2022 commitments in the $84MM range. That’s not much compared to the rest of the league, but it’d be a franchise-record sum for Tampa Bay. Is ownership willing to support that kind of expenditure entering the season? Even if so, would the front office prefer to reallocate Glasnow’s projected money as they attempt to make a run at their fifth consecutive 90-win showing?

The Rays aren’t going to move Glasnow solely to shed salary. Were that the case, they’d have simply non-tendered him before November’s deadline. But they seem likely to consider trade offers, particularly if they can get help for 2022 in return. Rosenthal and Lin reported Tampa Bay and the Cubs kicked around trade formulations involving Glasnow and Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel before last summer’s deadline. Those obviously didn’t come to fruition, but the Rays will probably look into similar possibilities after the lockout.

Any team with designs on contending in 2023 could be a plausible trade partner. A retooling organization like the Cubs or Nationals could take on a few million dollars during a non-competitive season with an eye towards a quick rebound after selling off pieces last summer. An immediate contender with more near-term financial flexibility than the Rays have could see this as a buy-low opportunity. Trades of players this talented between contenders are uncommon, but given the Rays’ financial situation and the timing of Glasnow’s surgery, a deal during the expected post-lockout transactions frenzy wouldn’t be surprising.

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