Rays Rumors

Quick Hits: MLBPA Facility, Bradley, Rays, Kloffenstein, Jays

By Darragh McDonald | March 5, 2022 at 10:19pm CDT

With MLBPA members currently locked out of Spring Training and team facilities, the union has set up a facility in Arizona so that players can attempt to replicate a normal spring training experience. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle takes a look at the situation, which includes some surreal details, such as softball, pickleball players and children also making use of the equipment near the MLB players. “The Players Association has done an incredible job setting this up,” Nico Hoerner says about the setup. “Hopefully, more players start showing up, because it’s about as nice a place as I’ve ever worked out.” As noted by Slusser, Kyle Hendricks, Shane Bieber and Mark Melancon are just some of the other big leaguers present there.

Elsewhere, Alex Wood is working out in Georgia with his fellow Giant and battery mate Joey Bart. With no firm timeline on when Spring Training or the regular season will get started, it makes it difficult for players to decide how to prepare. “I’m slowly ramping up,” Wood said. “I’m going to continue to build volume in hopes that in the next two weeks or so we hopefully get a deal. Once we head to camp, I should be ready to get in games pretty quickly.” Hoerner similarly feels he won’t be far from readiness once the lockout is over. “Give me my 30 at-bats and I’ll be ready to go,” he said.

Elsewhere around the league…

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times takes a look at the trajectory of right-handed pitching prospect Taj Bradley, who was selected by the Rays in the 5th round of the 2018 draft, when he was still a teenager. “I remember when Taj Bradley showed up on campus when he was 17 years old, and I think he was throwing 86, 87, 88 (mph),” minor-league field coordinator Michael Johns said. “We’re all kind of scratching our heads like, ‘Ooookaaaay.'” But Bradley took a huge step forward in 2021, logging 103 1/3 innings between A-ball and High-A, with an ERA of just 1.83, along with an excellent 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Based on that performance, he’s now considered the #58 prospect in the game by Baseball America. Bradley tells Topkin about the steps he’s taken to get where he is today, which includes keeping a journal of his progress. “I just start off with a quick, like, ‘You had a great game. You had a good outing. This is what you did well. You’ve been working on this. You did it. You succeeded,'” Bradley says. “And maybe with, like 0-2 pitches or put-away pitches or my cutter, just the development of it — not a con so much as improvements need to be made.” Bradley is not yet on the Rays’ 40-man roster, meaning he will be able to continue his development in game settings when the minor leagues begin in April, even if the lockout were to linger beyond that time.
Like Bradley, Adam Kloffenstein was also selected by an AL East team in the 2018 draft, when the Blue Jays drafted him in the third round. But unlike Bradley, Kloffenstein had a miserable season in 2021, putting up an ERA of 6.22 in 101 1/3 innings at High-A. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com spoke to Kloffenstein about getting over the disappointing results of last year and moving into the future. “I was young when I was drafted. I’ve always been blessed, always been successful in this game — which has made it a lot of fun,” Kloffenstein said. “Last year, I didn’t have as much fun… Obviously, I’m bummed out about the season. I’m 20, 21 years old, and we’re going to look back on this in a couple years and it’s going to be the most important season I ever had.” Prospect evaluators have pointed out that the Blue Jays’ system is lacking in upper level pitching prospects, now that Alek Manoah has graduated to the big league team. If Kloffenstein can right the ship in 2022, he could potentially fill that hole for the organization. Having not yet landed a roster spot, Kloffenstein will be unaffected by the lockout, with Matheson noting that he could start the season in the rotation of the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Astros, Kreidler, Canterino

By Mark Polishuk | February 26, 2022 at 8:47pm CDT

In the latest step of Tyler Glasnow’s recovery from Tommy John surgery, the Rays right-hander has started throwing, agent Joel Wolfe told Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. Glasnow underwent his surgery in early August, so while it’s very up in the air as to whether or not he’ll be able to make it back to action before the 2022 season is out, he is setting an in-season return as his goal. Beyond just his health, the other question concerning Glasnow is whether or not he’d be returning to the mound in a Rays uniform — projected for a $5.8MM salary this year, Glasnow has been widely speculated as a trade candidate for a Tampa club that is forever looking to manage its payroll.

Some other tidbits from around the American League…

“Position addition” is the name for the Astros’ process of experimenting with its most athletic prospects at various other positions, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome writes. Naturally, the more versatile a player is, the better his chances at reaching the majors in some kind of role. “It always depends on what the major league roster is going to look like in the future, but I think it just raises a lot of those guys’ floors,” Astros field coordinator Jason Bell said. “I think our guys have been fairly open to it…and I think a lot of times they think it’s fun.” Of the 23 position players in Houston’s minicamp, 12 are designated as part of an “infielder/outfielder” defensive grouping, working at positions both in the grass and on the dirt.
Tigers prospect Ryan Kreidler may know a few things about position changes, as the longtime shortstop saw Javier Baez suddenly emerge as a roadblock after Baez landed in the Motor City on a six-year, $140MM deal. While Baez can opt out of that contract after the 2023 season, Kreidler will likely be focusing on other positions in the interim — he has played a handful of games at third base and second base during his two minor league seasons. “I will do whatever the Tigers want me to do, whether it’s shortstop, shortstop and third base, or utility,” Kreidler told Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. “Whatever they deem me capable of doing I will do it to the best of my ability and just keep trucking…I think shortstops have the ability to play all over the field, that’s why continuing to take reps at shortstop is good for me.” After a strong performance at the plate in 2021, Kreidler drew the attention of prospect evaluators and other teams, and now looks like yet another promising young Detroit player on the cusp of the big leagues. Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario have second and third base spoken for, and are both also controlled through 2023, so a utility role might indeed be Kreidler’s best path to the Tigers’ active roster.
Elbow problems limited Matt Canterino to 23 innings in 2021, and between that abbreviated season and the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, the Twins prospect has tossed only 48 professional innings since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Canterino came to Minnesota’s minicamp on a clean bill of health, he told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and he is now focused on staying on the field. “I can’t really worry too much about a shutdown period, like how my workload’s going to be managed, but I can do the things that I think are going to help me stay healthy in the long run,” Canterino said. The righty has looked tremendous when he has been able to pitch, posting a 1.13 ERA and a whopping 42.94% strikeout rate over his 48 innings (topping out at the high-A level).

Rays Sign David McKay To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | February 26, 2022 at 12:49pm CDT

The Rays have signed right-hander David McKay to a minor league deal with an invite big league camp, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter). McKay was eligible to sign during the lockout because he was outrighted by the Tigers in 2020 and hadn’t signed with another club until now.

McKay made his MLB debut in 2019 with the Mariners, logging seven innings before being claimed on waivers by the Tigers and throwing 19 1/3 innings for them. He ended that season with 26 1/3 innings and an ERA of 5.47 between the two clubs. His 14.8% walk rate was certainly not pretty, but he also struck out batters at a clip of 29.6%, well above that year’s league average of 23%. He also added 45 2/3 Triple-A innings that year between the two organizations, putting up a 4.93 ERA and a terrific 37% strikeout rate, though with the concerning walk rate still present at 14.9%.

In 2020, McKay was limited a one unfortunate outing in Detroit’s Opening Day game, which was in late July because of the pandemic delay. He recorded one out before allowing a walk and a homer and then getting pulled. The Tigers optioned him a couple of days later and, with the pandemic wiping out the minors, he wasn’t able to pitch in organized games again. The club designated him for assignment in September.

As noted by Topkin, the righty underwent hip surgery in April of last year, which has kept him out of action since then. In a column about the signing, Topkin adds that McKay has recently been “hitting 96 mph with his fastball and spinning his slider effectively.” The Rays have developed a reputation for building their pitching staff by finding hidden gems and turning them into fearsome weapons. With McKay already showing a sensational ability to rack up strikeouts, the club will just need to improve his control in order for him to be their next successful reclamation project. McKay will turn 27 years old in March, has less than a year of service time under his belt and has an option year remaining, making him a good fit for Tampa’s style of cycling through a large number of cheap and optionable bullpen arms.

AL East Notes: Anderson, Whitlock, Barnes

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2022 at 10:08am CDT

Rays righty Nick Anderson, on the mend from surgery that installed a brace to stabilize a damaged ligament in his elbow, tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he’s progressing through rehab and currently throwing from 60 feet. The 31-year-old originally sustained a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in Spring Training 2021 but opted for rehab rather than Tommy John surgery after both the Rays’ medical staff and renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister advised that course of treatment. He returned to the big leagues in September but didn’t look close to his 2019-20 form in doing so. Anderson acknowledged that had he initially opted for surgery, he might be in a better place, rehab-wise, than he currently is, but explained that the decision is never so easy.

“Obviously, looking back at it, I’m like, well, shoot, I should have just got cut open right away when I had the injury,” says Anderson. “That would have solved that and I would have been back like the beginning of this year. But what do you do? You don’t ever really know. You just make a choice and roll with it, and hope it’s the right one.” Topkin notes that Anderson is expected back at some point in the middle of the 2021 season.

Some more from the division…

Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock proved to be a sensational find in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, emerging as a key reliever who helped fuel Boston’s return to the postseason in 2021. Whitlock, who’s been a starter for the majority of his career, tells Stan Grossfield of the Boston Globe that he enjoys starting and “love[s] the routine behind it and everything,” but he took a team-first approach in adding that the competitor in him will work in any role he’s asked. The Sox, however, clearly haven’t ruled out the possibility of Whitlock transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation at some point, though, as the right-hander himself explained. “They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” says Whitlock. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.” The comments from Whitlock come amid a much lengthier profile of the right-hander — an interesting look at his back story and journey to the Majors, wherein he even opines that Tommy John surgery “saved his life” by giving him the needed downtime for valuable introspection and to get into a better place, mentally, than he had been previously.
Matt Barnes’ 2021 was a tale of two seasons, as the Red Sox righty pitched to a dominant 2.25 ERA with a 42% strikeout rate through his first 44 innings before his performance fell off a cliff. Barnes yielded a dozen runs, surrendered four homers and walked nine batters in his final 10 2/3 innings of the season — a stretch of 10.13 ERA ball that led to what would’ve previously been an unthinkable omission from the postseason roster. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension worth $18.75MM in the midst of that hot streak during July, spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the manner in which his season spiraled out of control and expressed confidence in a 2022 rebound. Barnes called it the “craziest year of his life” and a “perfect storm” of circumstances that led to his struggles, beginning with the development of some bad habits when he’d pitched quite a bit in a short period of time. He then missed more than two weeks after a positive Covid-19 test and feels he “ran out of time” to recalibrate and get back into form. He’s owed $7.25MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Sox must decide on an $8MM option for 2024, so a return to the form he showed up through early August is particularly important for both Barnes and the club.

AL Notes: Crochet, Johnson, Guardians

By Mark Polishuk | February 19, 2022 at 3:45pm CDT

Garrett Crochet is slated to be a big part of the White Sox pitching mix in 2022, even if his longer-term role is still up in the air. The Sox certainly have designs on eventually moving the 11th overall pick of the 2020 draft into the rotation, though the reigning AL Central champions already have a tentative starting five in place for the coming season. Plus, “it sure seems like the White Sox can little afford to leave Crochet out of their 2022 bullpen plans,” NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber writes, as Craig Kimbrel is a popular trade candidate and the club might need Crochet to provide further depth and quality in the relief corps.

Because of the canceled 2020 minor league season, Crochet has never made even a single appearance in a minor league game, going right from the draft to Chicago’s alternate training site in 2020 and then onto the big league roster. In theory, at least a short stint in the minors would help Crochet get properly stretched out as a starter and acclimated to rotation work, though then he wouldn’t be available to provide immediate help for a White Sox team that plans to contend this year. Stretching him out during the season has its own set of pros and cons, as that tactic also wouldn’t necessarily mean Crochet was being used in optimal fashion towards helping the Sox win games. Duber figures the team’s post-lockout moves will provide a hint to Crochet’s role, since if the White Sox added some other relief depth, Crochet could then be transitioned more smoothly to starting pitching.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Goodrum, Zombro

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 8:53am CDT

We have continued to see minor league signings even with the lockout still limiting most offseason business, though The Athletic’s Eno Sarris and Brittany Ghiroli note that the total number of minors contracts signed this winter is naturally much lower than usual compared to past offseasons. While the lockout extends to MLBPA members, players on MLB contracts, and players on 40-man rosters, some players within these parameters are stuck in a strange middle ground, like Sam McWilliams. Since the righty signed a Major League contract with the Mets last winter but hasn’t actually appeared in a big league game in his pro career, he is both locked out and not an official union member.

It isn’t known exactly how many players are in McWilliams’ status, which is part of the confusion shared over which players are exactly “covered” by the lockout regulations. As a result, some offseason throwing showcases have had to stagger workout times (since MLB scouts aren’t permitted to even observe locked-out players) or even prevent some “covered” players from attending these showcases. McWilliams and others might therefore have even more of an uphill battle in landing a contract during what is expected to be an absolute frenzy of transactions once the lockout is finally over. [UPDATE: Ghiroli tweets that the MLBPA has adjusted its qualification standard for stipends to include McWilliams and other players in his situation]

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Rays Reportedly Open To Trading Austin Meadows

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2022 at 9:57pm CDT

Kevin Kiermaier may be among the most obvious possible trade chips in the sport, though he isn’t the only Rays outfielder that may be available. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Kiermaier and Austin Meadows are the “most likely to go in a trade” and Manuel Margot could “maybe” also be floated to other teams.

Since the Rays roster is in constant flux, it isn’t surprising that the club is at least open to discussing anyone short of Wander Franco. We examined Margot as a potential trade candidate last week, citing his appeal to other teams as a similar glove-first type of player to Kiermaier, except younger, less expensive, and with a less-checkered injury history. Meadows bring a different skillset to the table, plus more long-term control since he is controlled through the 2024 season via salary arbitration.

Meadows hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 home runs over 591 plate appearances in 2021, bouncing back from a rough 2020 season that saw him post only a .667 OPS over 152 PA. That 2020 campaign was hampered by both a case of COVID-19 during Summer Camp and then an oblique strain in late September, though Meadows was able to return for much of the Rays’ postseason run.

Despite the rebound year, however, Meadows’ 2021 numbers weren’t without some concerns. Quite a bit of his production was contained within a red-hot stretch from May 2 to June 6 that saw Meadows hit .275/.365/.625 with 10 home runs. In the 345 PA after that hot streak, however, Meadows was only a .224/.290/.406 hitter. The left-handed hitting Meadows had posted pretty good numbers against lefties over his career, but his 2021 splits saw him deliver just a .563 OPS in 189 PA against southpaws (as opposed to an .871 OPS in 351 PA against right-handed pitching).

Defensive shifts played a big part in these splits, as teams shifted 75% of the time against Meadows in 2021, a marked increase from the previous two seasons. The result was a .304 wOBA against the shift (with a .402 wOBA in normal defensive alignments). Meadows also made much less hard contact in 2021 than he did in the previous two seasons, with a 37.9% hard-hit ball rate that put him in only the 32nd percentile of all batters.

Meadows has been mostly utilized as a left fielder over the last two seasons, with mixed results depending on your metric of choice. Defensive Runs Saved (+2) and UZR/150 (+4.2) give him positive grades, while Outs Above Average puts Meadows at only a -1 for his 799 2/3 innings in left field. While not bad defensive numbers by any stretch, the Rays still gave Meadows a lot of DH time before Nelson Cruz was acquired prior to the trade deadline.

Dealing Meadows would be a very intriguing move for a Tampa Bay club that is no stranger to aggressive trades, even of players who seemed like building blocks in the recent past. It can be argued that Meadows still is or should be a building block, considering the power he brings to the table, his former top-prospect status with the Pirates, and his three years of team control.

The increasing price tag of those arbitration years, however, might also factor against Meadows’ longer-term future in Tampa. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Meadows to earn $4.3MM in his first arb-eligible year, and barring any changes to the arbitration structure in the next CBA, traditional counting stats like home runs and RBIs may continue to play an outsized role in determining a player’s future salary. If the Rays feel they can get a more productive overall player into the mix now, they could opt to deal Meadows while he may still be able to command something close to a premium return.

With some more established veteran outfield bats available in free agency, Meadows stands an interesting alternative for teams that might not be willing to pay big money to sign a Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, or Michael Conforto. Meadows’ three years of control would put a different type of high price tag on his services, though an enterprising team could tempt the Rays with any number of offers. Whatever the move, Topkin figures a larger-profile trade is likelier to come closer to the start of Spring Training if the Rays can help it, since the team would like to avoid “the disruption” involved with trading an established member of the roster later in camp.

Outfield prospect Josh Lowe is ready for a larger role in 2022, able to step into the Rays’ outfield mix in the event that any of Meadows, Kiermaier, or Margot is traded. Replacing a left fielder is easier than replacing a premium defensive glove like Kiermaier or Margot, so Tampa Bay could also look elsewhere if it isn’t satisfied with an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Brett Phillips, Kiermaier, Margot, and Vidal Brujan. Topkin also reiterates that the Rays are hoping to find a right-handed hitter who can play first base, and if such player is also outfield-capable, that would only help the depth chart.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening. The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

Sternberg, Manfred Reiterate Desire For Rays To Stay In Tampa Bay

By Anthony Franco | February 10, 2022 at 10:15pm CDT

The Rays efforts to arrange a split-season home between Tampa Bay and Montreal were dashed last month, when Major League Baseball’s Executive Council officially shot down the idea. The club’s lease at Tropicana Field runs through 2027, but their long-term home remains uncertain.

With the split-city plan dashed, the Rays have pivoted back towards efforts to remain in the Tampa Bay area full-time. Speaking from the quarterly owners’ meetings this week, both Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg and MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred expressed optimism about the team’s chances of finding a long-term home there (pair of links from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).

Speaking with Topkin yesterday, Sternberg reiterated his surprise with the Executive Council’s decision to nix the split-city plan but said “there’s no value for me rehashing it at this point” and suggested recent talks with Tampa-area officials had been promising. “People want us in the area, which is the most important thing. We want to be in the area, which is the most important thing. And we have both (Tampa mayor Jane Castor) and her administration, and (St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch) and his administration and the county people, who have been nothing but supportive and eager to engage with us.”

Manfred addressed the situation this morning as the owners’ meetings wrapped up. He reiterated his belief that “Tampa is a major-league market” and called it his hope that the Rays and local officials “find a solution that will keep a full season of baseball in Tampa.” With a bit more than five years remaining on the Tropicana Field lease and the Rays’ desire for the construction of a new stadium, the commissioner told Topkin there’s “a sense of urgency” in talks.

Last week, the Times obtained a copy of a summary report commissioned by the Tampa Sports Authority which estimated the cost of constructing a roofed, full-season facility with a capacity of 27,000 fans in Ybor City would cost in the realm of $892MM. Sternberg and team president Matt Silverman told Topkin they’re awaiting further details, including a comprehensive cost breakdown, from that analysis.

“It’s an incomplete picture of the work that they’ve been doing, and we’re eager to see that full pitch once it’s ready,” Silverman said. “Rather than react to a news report, we’re excited to sit down with the city and the county and the TSA.” Of course, apportioning responsibility for funding a potential new stadium will be key. While their split-season proposal was still on the table, the Rays indicated they were willing to foot half the bill on a stadium with an estimated $700MM overall price tag (thereby putting up around $350MM). The organization has yet to reveal how much they’d be willing to contribute to the construction of a full-season stadium in the Tampa Bay area.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Rays Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect