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Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding

By Jeff Todd | December 27, 2019 at 7:42pm CDT

DECEMBER 27, 7:42pm: Aside from the Reds and Padres, it’s “thought” that the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe even the Blue Jays still have interest in Akiyama, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

6:55pm: The bidding is largely down to the Reds and Padres, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter). It seems the expectation is that he’ll reach a decision before the new year.

5:50am: The Reds have a multi-year offer to Akiyama on the table and are the likeliest landing spot for the 31-year-old, per a Friday report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link).

DECEMBER 26: When he declared his intentions to come to the majors, Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama entered an interesting place on this winter’s market. With so few viable center fielders available, and no shortage of demand, he offered an intriguing new possibility.

Interest has been fairly robust from the outset for the long-time Seibu Lions standout. And the chatter — at least, in Japanese outlets — has increased of late after Yahoo Japan reported (Japanese language link) that the left-handed-hitting 31-year-old would reach a decision in late December. If Akiyama has settled on a contract, it’s not yet known. But there are a few new hints to chew on. And other recent developments have had an impact on his market.

Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link) cites the Padres as a leading new contender. While it’s tough to assess the merits of those reports, they’re each rather notable for the impact on the market at large. The Pads only just added a somewhat similar player in Trent Grisham; it’d seem a move on Akiyama might portend a trade of another left-handed-hitting outfielder. Plus, adding salary would increase the team’s desire to move some of the money owed Wil Myers.

Then again, Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) labels the Reds the likeliest landing spot for Akiyama, citing the organization’s persistent interest. The possibilities are all the more interesting with regard to the Reds, who have seemingly been preparing to utilize Nick Senzel in center but could take any number of different directions upon adding Akiyama. There certainly could be implications for the club’s interest in right-handed-hitting corner bats such as Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. With six left-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man, the Cincinnati club would at minimum have to do some roster maintenance.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks have long been known to have interest. But it’s worth wondering to what extent either club is a legitimate possibility at this stage. The Cubs are reportedly sifting through pocket change and don’t appear to have any salary-freeing swaps on the immediate horizon. And the Arizona organization just added Kole Calhoun, which gives the team two well-compensated, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders around switch-hitting center fielder Ketel Marte (although he could shift back to second base if Akiyama lands in Arizona).

Another team long known to have interest, the Rays, also made a significant new left-handed-hitting addition to its outfield mix. Fellow Japanese standout Yoshitomo Tsutsugo secured a relatively surprising two-year, $12MM deal (plus a $2.4MM release fee) with the Tampa Bay organization. To what extent the Rays are involved at the moment isn’t entirely clear. But the team reportedly remains interested in Akiyama, even with multiple other left-handed-hitting options — including regular center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — still on hand.

While there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty, the foregoing discussion does indicate the layers of intrigue at play. In all likelihood, an Akiyama signing will be preceded by and/or will trigger some potentially notable corresponding transactions.

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Nick Senzel Changes Agencies

By Anthony Franco | December 22, 2019 at 11:32am CDT

Promising Reds’ outfielder Nick Senzel has hired the Scott Boras Corporation as representation, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The 24-year-old remains two seasons from arbitration eligibility.

The former University of Tennessee star and second overall pick made his MLB debut in 2019. He tallied 404 unremarkable plate appearances (.256/.315/.427), although he did expand his defensive profile. A third baseman in Knoxville, Senzel added the keystone to his resume in the minors. Last season, he moved to center field, where he logged all 92 of his MLB starts. He figures to stick in center now that the Reds have inked Mike Moustakas to join Eugenio Suárez on the roster.

Senzel hasn’t wowed to the extent some may have hoped, but he remains a key long-term asset for the Cincinnati organization. A former consensus top ten prospect, he comes with six seasons of team control. He’ll first need to bounce back from season-ending shoulder surgery; at last check, the Reds were “optimistic” he’d be a full go in 2020.

Senzel’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

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Central Notes: Reds, Miley, Cubs, Twins, Clippard

By TC Zencka | December 21, 2019 at 9:37am CDT

Wade Miley stood helplessly by as his Astros’ tenure crumbled behind a disastrous September. A rocky final month boiled over into his lone ALDS appearance, forcing Miley off the roster for the ALCS and World Series. The team supposed Miley was relying too much on his cutter and steering his changeup to the point of altering the arm action that makes the pitch effective. After the year was out, however, a former teammate reached out to alert Miley that glove position was tipping his pitches, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That’s cold comfort for Astros’ fans, but those in Cincinnati can officially raise their expectations for the two-year, $15MM free agent signing. If the Miley that shows up to Great American Ballpark more closely resembles the guy who put up a 3.06 ERA through 156 innings prior to September (and if the offense rebounds), the Reds might finally live up to the dependable, high-quality performance the chamber of commerce had in mind when adopting the the nickname of the Blue Chip City.

  • As much credit as Theo Epstein deserves for finally turning the Cubs into a winner, the blame falls at his feet as well for the current state of affairs. Something has clearly gone awry when the Cubs are so short of cash that they can’t even outbid the Brewers for low-cost free agents like lefty Alex Claudio, who signed for $1.75MM. The problem isn’t that the Cubs are cheap (they had the third-highest payroll last season), but Epstein hasn’t made the best use of their funds, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. With one of the highest budgets in baseball, Epstein ought to have enough resources to maintain a winner in Chicago – instead he’s bargain hunting for the second consecutive offseason.
  • The Twins finally made good on a decade-long courtship of reliever Tyler Clippard when they signed him to a one-year, $2.75MM deal, per The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. He’s long been successful in this league, thanks largely to a north-south approach that’s come into fashion in recent seasons: a high-spin rising fastball set up by a splitter and changeup that move the opposite direction. The arsenal induces soft, airborne contact, especially against lefties. Besides being a reverse splits guy, he is also the rare pitcher who can be relied upon to consistently produce below-average batting average on balls in play. His career .239 BABIP is second-lowest all-time, Gleeman notes, and he’s only once let that number rise above .300, the average mark league-wide.
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NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Cubs, Bryant, Pirates, Reds

By Connor Byrne | December 20, 2019 at 11:45pm CDT

Third baseman Josh Donaldson, the No. 1 free agent left on the board, continues to contemplate his future. The Nationals, Twins, Dodgers and Braves (with whom he thrived in 2019) look like the front-runners for his services. All things being equal, though, it appears Donaldson would prefer to stay in Atlanta. The “belief” is Donaldson’s camp has promised the Braves he’ll let them make a final offer before he signs anywhere else, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The problem, as O’Brien notes, is that the Braves may not want to give Donaldson, 34, four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, Washington and Minnesota are reportedly open to doing so.

More from the National League…

  • The Cubs’ Kris Bryant could be a trade target for Atlanta if it doesn’t re-sign Donaldson, though it’s still unclear how much more team control the former has left. Bryant filed a grievance over service time against the Cubs, whose decision to delay the now-star’s promotion in 2015 earned them an extra year of control. That grievance was heard back in October, and briefs were due Friday, but arbitrator Mark Irvings’ ruling won’t arrive until sometime after Jan. 1, Evan Drellich of The Athletic tweets. For now, Bryant’s under control for two more years, but that figure will drop to one if he unexpectedly wins his grievance. The 27-year-old has been featured in trade rumors, but at least until the league knows how much more control Bryant has, it’s highly unlikely he’ll go anywhere.
  • Rookie Pirates manager Derek Shelton has chosen Tarrik Brock as his first base coach, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. This will be the second go-around as a major league 1B coach for Brock, who worked in that role for the Padres in 2016. He went on to serve as the Dodgers’ minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator from 2017-19. Now 45, Brock’s a former outfielder who saw brief MLB action in 2000 with the Cubs.
  • The Reds hired Joe Mather as assistant hitting coach earlier this week, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The 37-year-old Mather – who, like Brock, is an ex-outfielder – spent last season as the Diamondbacks’ minor league field and hitting coordinator. He’ll now work alongside new Reds hitting coach Alan Zinter.
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Reds Sign David Carpenter

By Jeff Todd | December 20, 2019 at 5:58pm CDT

The Reds have agreed to a deal with veteran reliever David Carpenter, according to the social media accounts of Cincinnati pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy and Carpenter himself. It’s a minors deal with an invite to MLB camp.

Carpenter didn’t exactly regain his former glory last year with the Rangers. But he did make it up for four MLB appearances — his first since way back in 2015. And Carpenter spun 38 2/3 innings of 1.63 ERA ball with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 at Triple-A.

It seems the righty has been back at work at the Boddy-founded Driveline Baseball this winter. (Here’s a video link on Twitter if you’d like to look for yourself.) We’ll see whether he can crack the Reds roster in camp, but moving back towards his once-customary 96 mph heat would surely help.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions David Carpenter

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Reds Reportedly Exploring Francisco Lindor Trade Scenarios

By Jeff Todd | December 19, 2019 at 7:23am CDT

The Reds have “engage[d]” with the Indians in talks regarding shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s no indication to this point that the discussions are anything but exploratory in nature.

We’ve heard ongoing chatter regarding the Cleveland superstar. Lindor, who recently turned 26, is entering his second-to-last season of arbitration control and projects to earn $16.7MM. Having recently shipped out high-dollar hurlers Trevor Bauer (over the summer, to Cincinnati) and Corey Kluber (more recently, to the Rangers), the Indians are seemingly willing to listen on Lindor. But indication is that the club isn’t especially anxious to deal him.

While it’s still unclear whether there’s any significant likelihood of a swap coming together, it’s interesting to hear of ongoing talks from multiple quarters. The Padres and Dodgers are among the other organizations tied recently to Lindor, though in all cases we’ve yet to hear of anything approaching a concerted effort to pry loose the star shortstop.

No doubt it’d take a massive array of talent to coax the Indians into moving Lindor. Though it’s now quite difficult to imagine he will be retained for the long haul with an extension, he’s also still a reasonably priced young star on a team that is still in an open competitive window. The Indians can plausibly hope to cover the outgoing pitching from within, though they undoubtedly sacrificed quite a lot of near-term upside in the form of Bauer and Kluber. But there’s really no replacing Lindor.

Whether there’s a path to a deal remains to be seen, but the involvement of the Reds could help spur movement on the market. It is especially notable that the Cincinnati organization has recently hammered out complicated, multi-player deals with the Indians — as well as the Padres and the Dodgers, who could consider moving Corey Seager as part of or in a follow-up to a Lindor acquisition. Hypothetical possibilities abound. At minimum, the report makes clear that the Reds are still scanning the market in search of major improvements.

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Reds Sign Wade Miley

By Connor Byrne | December 18, 2019 at 1:20pm CDT

An already impressive Reds rotation became deeper Wednesday, as the team announced the signing of left-hander Wade Miley to a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $15MM. (The Reds, unlike most clubs, revealed the basic contractual terms themselves.) The pact also contains a club option for the 2022 season that is reported to be worth $10MM and comes with a $1MM buyout. Miley, a client of O’Connell Sports Management, will earn $6MM in 2020 and $8MM in 2021, and he can reportedly take home another $500K annually via an incentives package. The contract nearly matches the two-year, $16MM prediction MLBTR made for Miley at the outset of free agency.

Miley, 33, gives the Reds a southpaw option to add to a rotation that already included a highly talented quartet of right-handers: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. At least on paper, plugging in Miley as the last member of the group upgrades the Reds’ rotation and improves their chances of breaking a six-year playoff drought in 2020.

Miley was also a free agent in each of the past couple offseasons, but this is the best the well-traveled hurler has done on the open market thus far. After settling for a minor league deal and reviving his career as a member of the Brewers in 2018, Miley joined the Astros for a $4.5MM guarantee last winter.

That proved to be a decent deal for both sides, as Miley — despite continuing to throw fastballs in only the 90 mph range — helped the Astros to an AL West title with 167 1/3 regular-season innings of 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP ball with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate. He wasn’t without his warts, though, as a brutal stretch of starts in September eventually led to Miley being omitted from the Astros’ World Series roster. Nevertheless, Miley’s body of work over the past two seasons is undeniably solid and has clearly convinced many in the industry that he’s again a viable rotation piece.

For Miley, heading to Cincinnati reunites him with pitching coach Derek Johnson. It was Johnson, then Milwaukee’s pitching coach, who helped bring Miley’s career back to life a couple years ago. And now that the Reds’ rotation appears to be complete, they’re free to turn their focus to other needs (shortstop? Catcher? Outfield? Bullpen?) as they continue to seek a return to relevance.

From a payroll vantage point, the team should have some financial breathing room in order to further add to the existing roster. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $124MM Opening Day payroll that is a stone’s throw away from last year’s Opening Day mark of roughly $126MM, but owner Bob Castellini and the Reds’ front office have preached aggression as they’ve moved from a longstanding rebuilding effort and shifted into a win-now mentality in what looks to be an increasingly vulnerable NL Central division.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link). Joel Sherman and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post added details on the incentives and option value (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Transactions Wade Miley

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MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 15, 2019 at 8:30am CDT

With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

Where Will Nicholas Castellanos Sign?
Reds 21.52% (5,534 votes)
Cubs 20.26% (5,211 votes)
Giants 17.01% (4,374 votes)
White Sox 16.50% (4,244 votes)
Rangers 13.58% (3,492 votes)
Diamondbacks 4.21% (1,083 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 4.02% (1,035 votes)
Marlins 2.90% (747 votes)
Total Votes: 25,720

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

How many guaranteed years will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
Four years 48.70% (7,223 votes)
Three years 31.27% (4,639 votes)
Five-plus years 11.33% (1,681 votes)
Two years 6.67% (990 votes)
One year 2.02% (300 votes)
Total Votes: 14,833

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

How much guaranteed money will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
$55-70MM 40.39% (5,574 votes)
$40-55MM 25.72% (3,550 votes)
$70-85MM 19.88% (2,743 votes)
Under $40MM 8.06% (1,113 votes)
Over $85MM 5.95% (821 votes)
Total Votes: 13,801
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NL Notes: Giants, Bumgarner, Bauer, Manfred, Padres, Yates

By Dylan A. Chase | December 14, 2019 at 10:15pm CDT

The Giants “remain engaged” on franchise legend Madison Bumgarner, according to the last check of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman (link). Obviously, the word “engaged” can be taken to mean any number of things–ranging from casual contact to protracted negotiation. It is notable, though, that Bumgarner’s longtime team apparently hasn’t been scared off by the increasing amount of competition for his services.

Since November, we’ve heard the Twins, Padres, Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals all linked to the lefthander to varying degrees. It became clear that MadBum’s reps were seeking something in excess of $100MM after they apparently passed on a reported $70MM-plus offer from Arizona earlier this offseason. Recent ceiling-raising deals for Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole have likely only helped position such a nine-figure contract as a probable outcome.

More Saturday notes from around the NL…

  • Add Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer to those critical of proposed changes from Rob Manfred and the league office. Well, perhaps “critical” doesn’t exactly do Bauer’s Saturday comments justice–perhaps “scorched earth” would be a better descriptor? “At least Rob Manfred is trying to ruin baseball at all levels and isn’t discriminating,” Bauer said on Twitter today. “Something to be said for consistency, I guess.” Bauer then asked followers what their “most hated Rob Manfred idea” was, before following up with a second tweet that characterized Manfred’s proposed changes as a “money grab”. While players should be entitled to their own opinions, it rates as newsworthy to see a public-facing employee criticize a central administrative office so, well, publicly. Whether other players share Bauer’s enmity toward proposed changes–which center around minor league contraction–is an open question.
  • Although it still remains to be seen if his club will make a front-end addition to its pitching staff, Padres GM AJ Preller certainly feels like their Drew Pomeranz addition will help make its bullpen one of MLB’s best. “I think the way Drew pitched at the end of last season, what Kirby’s done the last three years and especially last year, we feel really good about the back part of our bullpen,” Preller said of pairing Pomeranz with closer Kirby Yates, as quoted in an article from Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Interestingly, Preller also made some comments that, if we’re inclined to close reading, could be seen as something of a statement on Yates’ future with the club. “If that ends up being something that plays out for us over the course of Drew’s four years, and we have lights out back of the bullpen, that would be ideal, honestly,” Preller said. Yates only has one year of control remaining, and extension talks have seemed rather touch-and-go to this point. Preller didn’t mention the Hawaiian by name in the last part of that quote, and his use of the word “ideal” should also be noted; still, it does give some indication of how the team’s top baseball operations mind envisions the club’s pen in future seasons. Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune relayed that the club plans to resume contract talks with Yates after, in Preller’s words, the club gets “a better sense of where we’re at payroll wise, where we’re at roster wise” over the next few weeks.
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Latest On David Price Trade Talks

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | December 12, 2019 at 3:58pm CDT

It seems more and more plausible that the Red Sox will end up working out a deal involving lefty David Price, MLB.com’s Mark Feisand reports. The Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, and Angels have all shown varying degrees of interest in the 34-year-old, per the report.

Price is still owed $32MM a year for the next three seasons. That’s a big chunk of change for a 34-year-old who has made just 63 starts over the past three seasons — including 22 starts in a 2019 campaign that was cut short by elbow and wrist issues. Price was the embodiment of durability from 2010-16, pacing the Major Leagues with 1529 1/3 innings over that seven-year stretch, but he’s totaled just 358 frames over the past three seasons.

When on the field, of course, Price remains an effective pitcher — albeit one whose weighty annual salary no longer aligns with his rate of compensation. Dating back to 2017, Price owns a 3.75 ERA and 3.82 FIP. The 2019 season resulted in one of the worst ERAs of Price’s career (4.28), but he did give some reason for optimism with a career-high 10.7 K/9 and 28 percent strikeout rate. Price’s control remained solid (2.7 BB/9, seven percent walk rate), and his 21.0 K-BB% was the second-best of his career. Stranding runners was an issue, and a career-high .336 average on balls in play against him assuredly did Price no favors. Ultimately, though, Red Sox ownership’s desire to drop back below the luxury tax line is the driving factor in moving Price, whose seven-year, $217MM contract comes with a $31MM annual luxury hit.

Feinsand notes that the Red Sox have no desire to attach a desirable young player such as Andrew Benintendi to Price in order to simply shed the remainder of his contract. The Athletic’s Chad Jennings offers a similar sentiment (subscription required). “I don’t think we’d ever want to rule anything out,” chief baseball office Chaim Bloom of parting with prospects to help facilitate a Price trade (quote via Jennings). “But so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Sox would be forced to simply include cash along with Price in a trade. The Boston organization could certainly acquire another unpalatable contract in return, thus helping to . The Padres have discussed the possibility of including Wil Myers in a deal, for instance, although there’s no indication that such talks gained any traction. Myers himself is owed a regrettable $61MM over the next three seasons and just wrapped up an ugly .239/.321/.418 effort, striking out in 34.2 percent of his plate appearances along the way.

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