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Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Reds Non-Tender Kevin Gausman

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The Reds have non-tendered Kevin Gausman, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twtter). The righty’s $10.6MM arbitration projection apparently proved too lofty.

Cincinnati grabbed Gausman off waivers from Atlanta in August and let him work out of the bullpen down the stretch. While he did some solid work for the Reds, he never seemed especially likely to return at that price. Gausman struggled mightily to keep runs off the board as a starter with the Braves over the season’s first four months.

That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran draw strong interest as a free agent. He’ll presumably attract teams in need of starting and relief depth. He is coming off a career-best strikeout rate (25.3%), although some of that was a reflection of his quality work in shorter stints.

With five-plus years of service, Gausman would’ve been ticketed for free agency at the end of next season. He’ll hit the open market a year earlier than expected, entering his age-29 season.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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Reds To Non-Tender Jose Peraza

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The Reds have elected not to tender a contract to infielder Jose Peraza, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). MLBTR had projected him to earn $3.6MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

This is a tough pill for the Reds to swallow, as it had seemed entering the 2019 season that Peraza could turn into a steady regular. But he fell far shy of expectations in the just-completed campaign.

There’s no questioning the depth of Peraza’s struggles. He stumbled to a .239/.285/.346 batting line in 403 plate appearances. He didn’t even grade as a positive overall baserunner despite his obvious talent in that regard. Though Peraza continued to show well with the glove, it wasn’t enough to convince the Reds to keep the faith entering a must-win season.

In spite of the difficulties, it’s still a bit of a surprise to see Peraza cut loose at 25 years of age and with three seasons of arbitration control remaining. He may not quite have turned into the player they hoped he would when they acquired him back in 2015, but Peraza was a 2.6 fWAR performer in 2018 and has at times shown an ability to produce at a league-average rate with the bat despite a minimal walk rate.

With Peraza out of the mix at shortstop, the Reds depth chart is presently topped by Freddy Galvis. The club picked up his option at $5.5MM. Whether he’ll end up serving as a utility piece or semi-regular at short remains to be seen.

Rangers Claim Jimmy Herget, Designate Jeffrey Springs

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The Rangers announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Jimmy Herget off waivers from the Reds and designated left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a corresponding move. The Rangers’ 40-man roster remains full.

Herget turned 26 late last season after receiving his first MLB look. He didn’t produce a single strikeout in 6 1/3 innings in the majors, but ran up 10.4 K/9 over his 58 2/3 Triple-A innings. The funky righty posted a 2.91 ERA at the highest level of the minors but has largely been stalled there for the past three seasons.

The Texas org obviously preferred Herget’s outlook to that of Springs, who turned in good results in 2018 but couldn’t follow that up last year. In his 32 1/3 innings in the majors, Springs scuffled to a 6.40 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 6.4 BB/9.

Rays Acquire Brian O’Grady, Designate Jesus Aguilar For Assignment

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The Rays have acquired outfielder/first baseman Brian O’Grady from the Reds, per club announcements. The Cincinnati organization will receive a player to be named and cash in the swap.

First baseman Jesus Aguilar was designated for assignment to create roster space. He had been projected to earn $2.5MM in arbitration.

O’Grady is a left-handed hitter who earned his first shot at the majors last year. He scuffled in limited opportunities but otherwise showed well in 2019. Over 489 Triple-A plate appearances, O’Grady slashed .280/.359/.550 with 28 home runs. The 27-year-old is optionable and affordable, making him a potential depth piece for Tampa Bay.

Aguilar had simply not performed as hoped when he was picked up in the middle of the 2019 season. He turned in a .261/.336/.424 batting line in 107 plate appearances — not enough to motivate the club to commit to his salary and continue to tie up a roster spot. Aguilar’s big 2018 season makes him an intriguing buy-low target for clubs interested in first base/DH help.

Reds Acquire Justin Shafer, Nick Martini

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The Reds have announced a series of additions to their 40-man roster. Righty Justin Shafer comes over via trade from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations. The Cincinnati club has also claimed outfielder Nick Martini off waivers from the Padres.

To create 40-man roster space, the Reds designated outfielder Brian O’Grady and righty Jimmy Herget for assignment. They’ll be in DFA limbo for up to ten days.

Shafer was just designated himself, but drew enough interest to land on a 40-man roster and even generate a bit of a trade return. The 27-year-old, a former eighth-round pick, worked to a 3.86 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9 in 39 2/3 innings last year with the Jays.

There are some things to like here. Shafer averaged close to 95 mph with his heater and drew swings and misses on nearly a twelve percent of his MLB pitches. He was even more effective — 3.52 ERA, 35:8 K/BB ratio — in 30 2/3 frames in the tough International League.

If he can hold onto the roster spot, Shafer figures to compete for a role in camp. Martini could also be a candidate for a reserve gig in Cincinnati, depending upon what other moves the team ends up making.

Martini struggled last year in limited opportunities with the A’s and Padres. But the left-handed hitter had posted a strong .296/.397/.414 batting line over his first 179 MLB plate appearances in 2018. And Martini was quite tough on Pacific Coast League hurlers last year, recording nearly as many walks as strikeouts and generating a .328/.432/.482 output over 329 plate appearances at Triple-A.

MLBTR Poll: Which Top Free Agent Should The Reds Pursue?

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The Reds figure to be among the offseason’s most fascinating teams. They want to contend in 2020, plan to increase payroll, and have a few areas on the roster in need of upgrade. The lineup figures to be the main focus, as Cincinnati finished 25th in baseball in runs despite a hitter-friendly home park. More specifically, the Reds could look to bolster their catching, middle infield and corner outfield mix. Alternatively, they could return Nick Senzel to second base full-time, although they’d then be left parsing through a sparse center field market. With those needs in mind, the MLBTR staff forecast Cincinnati coming away with Yasmani Grandal and Didi Gregorius at the outset of the offseason. Grandal, of course, has since signed with the White Sox, although the Reds have been linked to Gregorius this month.

However, the club certainly doesn’t appear ready to pigeonhole itself into searching for offense. They were tied to Zack Wheeler, the number three starting pitching option on the market, this week. While bolstering a starting rotation that already projects as one of the league’s best might seem questionable for a team with so many offensive holes, there’s merit to the idea of acquiring the best players possible and sorting out the puzzle pieces later. Adding Wheeler, or one of the many other starting pitchers available, would make the Reds better, even if it doesn’t address the team’s most glaring weakness.

So where should the Reds turn? In addition to Gregorius and Wheeler, they’ve checked in on any number of free agents in the early going. To some extent, they were in on Grandal before he went to Chicago, although it isn’t clear if talks got very far. They’ve checked in on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, each of whom would be a conventional fit for an offense-needy club. Given the players to whom they’ve been linked, it’s little surprise Cincinnati isn’t overly concerned about forfeiting draft pick compensation to sign a player attached to a qualifying offer.

Speculatively speaking, even Mike Moustakas could make sense, assuming Cincinnati’s front office is comfortable with him as an option at second base. The Reds’ interest in Wheeler indicates we shouldn’t entirely rule out a starter like Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, either, even if neither hurler has yet been connected to the organization.

Options abound, but it seems likely the Reds will make some notable splash this winter. Where should they turn as they look to snap a six-year playoff drought?

Poll link (answer order randomized).

Reds Interested In Zack Wheeler

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Add the Reds to the many teams interested in coveted free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Wheeler’s longtime team, the Mets, as well as the White Sox, Twins, Angels, Padres, Yankees and Blue Jays are also among the clubs that have been connected to him early this offseason.

Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams indicated last month the Reds would be active in free agency, though expectations were the team’s focus would be on the offensive side. After all, the Reds finished last season 25th in the majors in both runs and wRC+, yet there’s already plenty of talent in their rotation. The team currently boasts Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani as locks for its starting staff next year. That said, signing Wheeler would perhaps give Cincinnati an elite rotation on paper, and now that catcher Yasmani Grandal (a target for the Reds who signed with the White Sox on Thursday) is off the board, an agent told Rosenthal the club may be prepared to redirect a significant portion of its available funds to Wheeler.

The 29-year-old Wheeler would immediately become one of the biggest signings in Reds history, with MLBTR predicting he’ll land a $100MM deal over a half-decade this offseason. Wheeler would give the Reds yet another front-of-the-rotation type, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA/3.48 FIP with 8.98 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 across a career-high 195 1/3 innings in 2019. That output was enough to convince the Mets to hit the flamethrowing Wheeler with a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he rejected. Because he’s a QO recipient, signing Wheeler would cost the Reds their third-highest pick in 2020. That won’t scare Cincy off, though, as Williams said last week the team will consider signing players who received a QO.

Details On The White Sox/Yasmani Grandal Signing

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The White Sox made a big early strike in the free agent market, signing Yasmani Grandal to a four-year, $73MM contract that stands as the priciest deal in franchise history.  Here some of the early reactions to the signing…

  • Grandal and White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke with reporters — including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and The Athletic’s James Fegan — during a conference call today today, detailing how the two sides came together.  The White Sox quickly reached out to Grandal’s representatives as soon as free agency opened, and met with Grandal and his team during last week’s GM Meetings.  Manager Rick Renteria was a familiar face to Grandal from their time together in San Diego (when Renteria was the Padres’ bench coach), and Grandal was impressed by Chicago’s core of young pitchers.  “If I see that I can help that pitching staff, for me that’s pretty much No. 1,” Grandal said.  “So, their sales pitch was, ’Look at the young arms we have, look at the guys we have coming up. We have an opportunity here to win, and we think you can help them out.’ ”  To that end, Hahn said that two days after the get-together at the GM Meetings, Grandal asked to see video of Sox pitchers to get more information about his future teammates.
  • The White Sox were perhaps something of a surprise suitor for Grandal, given that Chicago was thought to be relatively set behind the plate after James McCann’s solid 2019 season.  Since Grandal could see time at first base or DH, however, there appears to be a path for McCann to still receive a good chunk of playing time.  “Having too many guys who are quality big leaguers is a good thing, not something we view as a problem,” Hahn said.  “We want to provide Rick [Renteria] with enough flexibility and different options to set a quality lineup each day.”
  • More roster holes need to be filled before the White Sox can call themselves contenders in 2020, as Hahn was quick to downplay the Grandal signing as a big statement.  “There certainly is a level of excitement of what we had done even prior to this signing today, but until we actually convert on some of these targets, the words are just that,” Hahn said.  “I leave it to [the media] to interpret messages and all that stuff….If, in fact, other free agents see this move today as reinforcement to some of the things they’ve heard from us over the past several weeks or even going back to last year, that’s great. Hopefully there will be further moves over the course of the next several months that will continue that positive narrative.”
  • While the White Sox were the most ardent suitor, Grandal noted that his latest trip through free agency drew much more interest than last winter, when Grandal settled for a one-year deal with the Brewers.  “Quite frankly, unlike last year around this time when the market was kind of completely non-existent, this year, it was slightly different,” Grandal said.  “It seemed like there were several teams that were working hard within their limits to be able to compete and there were thorough teams that were really interested.”
  • The Brewers and Blue Jays were previously known to have interest in Grandal this offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) adds that the Reds, Angels, and Braves were also among the top suitors, though Atlanta may have just “checked in” on Grandal’s status.  Cincinnati was MLBTR’s predicted landing spot for Grandal, as the Reds as known to be willing to spend in pursuit of a postseason berth in 2020 and Grandal represented a clear upgrade over Tucker Barnhart.  Catcher was also a glaring area of need for the Angels, while the Braves have one capable regular in Tyler Flowers but are in need of a complement after Brian McCann’s retirement.
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