After picking up righty Tanner Roark, Reds president of baseball ops Dick Williams promises there’s “more to come,” as Bob Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Certainly, the Cinci front office has been engaged in quite a few intriguing trade scenarios of late, according to reports. It’s still anyone’s guess which will come to fruition. The addition of Roark, after all, largely came together over the course of the last few days, according to Williams and GM Nick Krall. It emerged recently that the Reds are engaged with the Marlins in talks on catcher J.T. Realmuto, the precise parameters of which aren’t clear. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Cinci receiver Tucker Barnhart is not being discussed between these teams. But Barnhart also would not likely end up on a roster with Realmuto. Rather, the idea seems to be that the Reds would ship out Barnhart in a subsequent deal. It would seem possible for the Reds to recoup a quality hurler or backfill on any sacrificed prospect depth in a Barnhart deal, though there are obviously quite a few moving parts here.
Reds Rumors
Latest On Reds/Dodgers Talks
A busy day of pitching transactions included Tanner Roark being traded from the Nationals to the Reds, and free agent Lance Lynn nearing an apparent agreement with the Rangers. Those moves take two potential Giants targets off the board, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported that San Francisco had interest in its own Roark deal, while The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly noted that the Giants had interest in Lynn before his reported price tag (three years and $30MM from Texas) rose too high for their liking. The Giants are known to be exploring reinforcements for a rotation that has still has Madison Bumgarner as the ace, but a lot of inexperience and question marks in the rest of the starting five.
- The Dodgers have been heavily linked to the Reds in trade talks, and while Yasiel Puig has prominently featured in these rumors, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links) hears that Puig hasn’t been involved in one of the latest proposals. This version of a deal would see Matt Kemp and Alex Wood go to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, which would shave roughly $13MM off of the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll calculations since Kemp’s contract has a higher average annual value than Bailey’s deal. Given Bailey’s struggles and injury problems over the last few seasons, one would imagine L.A. might pursue something more substantial back (i.e. a prospect or two) rather than pure salary relief, though it’s worth noting that the Dodgers acquired Kemp last offseason in a deal that certainly appeared at the time to be simply a bad contract swap. Clearing some luxury tax room would likely also allow the Dodgers to make another big-ticket addition.
Reds Acquire Tanner Roark
The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.
There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.
Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.
Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.
That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.
If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.
As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.
Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Reds Pitching Targets, Talks With Dodgers
- There has been a bevy of rumors surrounding the Reds, who seem to be knocking on quite a few doors at multiple positions. Pitching, though, remains the key. The Cincinnati ballclub is still “active in trade discussions” with the Yankees on Sonny Gray and the Blue Jays on Marcus Stroman, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). It’ll surprise few to hear that the Reds see those two hurlers as more reasonably achievable targets than Indians ace Corey Kluber, as Morosi adds. Both Gray and Stroman profile as bounceback targets, marking quite a distinction from Kluber, with the former clearly set to be dealt but the latter occupying a less-certain position on the trade market. With two years of control remaining, the Jays are said to be putting a high price on Stroman.
- Speaking of Reds trade chatter, Rosenthal tweets that the club is still kicking around scenarios with the Dodgers. (We previously rounded up the rumors on that match here, here, and here.) It turns out that the clubs are discussing scenarios involving Matt Kemp, along with a host of other previously rumored players, in what are quite obviously wide-ranging talks. No deal is close, says Rosenthal, though it certainly appears as if both teams believe they match up well on paper on a deal that would, in conjunction with some other pieces, send an expensive outfielder to Cincinnati and deliver the hefty Homer Bailey contract out west. It’ll be fascinating to see whether something comes together in these talks — or, frankly, any of the many others being conducted by the Cincinnati and Los Angeles organizations.
Reds Interested In J.T. Realmuto
3:38pm: The Reds are still talking to the Marlins about Realmuto but aren’t including Senzel in the trade negotiations, Jon Heyman tweets.
1:34pm: Yet another suitor has emerged for J.T. Realmuto, as SiriusXM’s Craig Mish (Twitter link) reports that the Reds “have jumped into” talks for the Marlins catcher. It isn’t a new interest, however, as the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer hears that Cincinnati has been interested in Realmuto “for a while.” Current Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart and outfield prospect Taylor Trammell have been mentioned as possible candidates to go back to Miami in the deal, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
Cincinnati has been linked to a number of big names in trade and free agent speculation this winter, with their focus largely aimed at pitching but also such notable position players as A.J. Pollock, Yasiel Puig, and Ender Inciarte. Acquiring a catcher, however, would count as something of an unexpected move on the Reds’ part, since Barnhart was signed to a four-year extension just in September 2017. As Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in baseball, there’s obvious upgrade potential for Cincinnati, and adding such a star player with just two years of remaining control further indicates the Reds’ willingness to make a quick return to contention.
Never an above-average hitter, Barnhart slashed .248/.328/.372 last season, which represented a dip from his 2017 production. Defensively, Barnhart continued to have some of the lowest framing rankings of any catcher in baseball (as per StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus), and his once-elite throwing arm also took a hit, as Barnhart threw out just under 24% of all baserunners trying to steal on him last season. On the plus side, Barnhart continued to draw high marks for his pitch-blocking abilities.
Barnhart is owed $10.25MM in guaranteed money over the next three seasons (including a $500K buyout of a $7.5MM option for 2022), so he’s still be a very affordable piece to solidify Miami’s catching situation if he was part of the Realmuto trade package. Trammell is a longer-term piece, and the type of blue chip prospect the Marlins have been seeking in exchange for their All-Star catcher.
Trammell is a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball, ranked as the second-best prospect (behind Nick Senzel) in the Reds’ system. MLB.com is most bullish on Trammell, ranking him 17th on its top 100 list. Drafted 35th overall in 2016, Trammell is regarded as an excellent athlete with outstanding speed, and a developing approach at the plate. The 21-year-old showed improved contact skills and plate discipline in his third pro season, and MLB.com’s scouting report believes Trammell will develop more power as he ages.
Dodgers “Actively” Attempting To Trade Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp
TODAY: Aside from Puig, the Dodgers and Reds have also discussed Alex Wood in trade talks, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets, though Feinsand’s source says “nothing serious at this point” has developed.
TUESDAY, 10:53pm: The Mets aren’t in on Puig, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.
10:27pm: The Dodgers are “actively” attempting to trade either or both of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Los Angeles would presumably have a much easier time moving the mercurial Puig, who’s the younger, less expensive and better of the two outfielders.
The 28-year-old Puig is projected to make an affordable $11.3MM in 2019, his last season of team control, and is reportedly “open” to playing for another club after developing a distrust of Dodgers management in 2018. The right-handed Puig has fallen flat against left-handed pitchers in back-to-back years, but nevertheless, he didn’t like that the Dodgers limited his playing time versus southpaws in 2018. Despite that, Puig still turned in another quality offensive season, hitting .267/.327/.494 (123 wRC+) with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 444 plate appearances. Since then, the Indians, Mets and Reds have been connected to Puig.
Kemp, 34, was similarly effective at the plate in 2018, as he bounced back from a rough 2017 in Atlanta to bat .290/.338/.481 (122 wRC+) with 21 long balls in 506 PAs. However, Kemp tailed off in the second half of the season, continued to struggle in the outfield and is due an unreasonable $21.5MM next year. The Dodgers figure to have trouble dealing Kemp, then, unless they eat a large portion of his salary or swap him for another team’s undesirable contract.
Jettisoning one or both of the Puig-Kemp duo would still leave the Dodgers with other outfield-capable players in Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and high-end prospect Alex Verdugo. Plus, given the Dodgers’ ability to spend, they may add to the group by signing Bryce Harper, the best, most expensive outfielder available in free agency. Incidentally, the Dodgers reportedly offered Puig to the Nationals for Harper at last summer’s trade deadline.
NL Notes: Reds, Mets, Cubs, Maeda
With news that the team is contemplating a rare foray into the big-game portion of the offseason’s free agent market, and today’s reports that the club is interested in acquiring Dodger outfielder Yasiel Puig, the Reds have moved to the fore of the offseason’s hot stove. As The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans details, it’s a unique position for a team that’s spent the last four years in the cellar of the NL Central. The Reds, to no one’s surprise, are said to be pursuing a center fielder, but quotes from President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams suggest the player need not be of the defense-first variety: “That’s one of the factors in not being comfortable in paying Billy (Hamilton) what we were paying him,” he said. “You could argue we can have room for a little more offense, a little less defense out of our center fielder.” One player said to be in the plans is blue-chip prospect Nick Senzel, a third baseman by trade who apparently offers enough athleticism to handle the position, though the options surely remain numerous at this juncture.
In other news from around the NL . . .
- Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets continue to ruminate internally about whether or not top prospect Andres Gimenez will be able to make the jump to the parent club in 2019, which would allow the team to dangle current shortstop Amed Rosario in a deal to reel in the trade market’s big fish, Miami catcher J.T. Realmuto. Such a scenario would, in all likelihood, necessitate the signing of a stopgap, defense-first shortstop, though 24-year-old Luis Guillorme, a supposed virtuoso with the leather, would seem to fit the bill as well as any. Gimenez, who spent nearly half of last season in Double-A as a 19-year-old, has a scouting report that reads quite similar to the one originally stamped to Rosario: a plus glove, with questions surrounding the bat.
- Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times cites sources who claim the Cubs would like to acquire two “established” but “not high-end” relievers, though such moves might not happen until next month. The Cubs’ pen delivered strong results last season (an NL best 83 ERA-), though much of the success may be ascribed to a combination of luck and sterling defense — the unit’s .277 BABIP, after all, was tied for the second lowest in the league, and its collective 106 xFIP- ranked in the league’s bottom half. Brandon Morrow, arguably the team’s best reliever in his limited action last year, is already scheduled to miss time next season after undergoing elbow surgery in November.
- Per Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts (via the LA Times’ Jorge Castillo on Twitter), righty Kenta Maeda will begin next season in the Dodger rotation. Maeda, 30, was yo-yoed between the bullpen and rotation last year despite mostly excellent (10.62 K/9, 3.30 FIP) results as a starter. His contract, which includes a series of incentive bonuses for each additional 10 IP after reaching the 90-inning plateau for a season, plus $1MM each for making his 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th, and 32nd starts of the year, may have been a factor, though the club’ll be hard-pressed to again limit the Japanese hurler if he reprises his dominance from a season ago.
Reds Acknowledge Trade Talks With Dodgers
- Reds president Dick Williams acknowledged on Tuesday that his team has had trade talks with the Dodgers, though he added that no deal is close, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com tweets. “We’ve had conversations with the Dodgers and there have been a variety of permutations,” Williams said. “I’m not going to get into what we’ve talked about.” Reds right-hander Homer Bailey and Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig have reportedly been among the names bandied about in those discussions.
Latest On J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn
7:41pm: Both Happ and former teammate Lance Lynn are “engaged with” the Astros, Yankees, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Happ’s also continuing to draw the attention of the Phillies, while Lynn has received interest from the White Sox, according to Feinsand.
9:53am: It has seemed for the past few days that veteran lefty J.A. Happ could be the next domino to fall in the starting pitching market, and there are signs this morning that talks are advancing. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Happ’s market is “heating up,” while Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter that Happ is sitting on multiple two-year offers.
The key question remains whether Happ will secure a guaranteed third season. Passan says that he has yet to receive such an offer. Happ’s representatives have “indicated he’ll sign with the first” team that meets that asking price, however, so it seems possible that something could come together swiftly.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Happ would indeed secure that third season in a new deal, riding his solid recent track record to a $48MM guarantee. There certainly seems to be sufficient interest to support such an outcome, though organizations are understandably hesitant to commit to Happ through his age-38 campaign.
To this point, the Phillies, Braves, Yankees, Brewers, Reds, Angels, Astros, Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox have all been connected to Happ. It’s certainly not impossible to imagine a few other organizations with possible interest as well, though at present it’s tough to gauge the likeliest landing spots.
Reds Rumors: Puig, Dodgers, Ender
- The Dodgers and Reds have had “multiple” trade discussions involving outfielder Yasiel Puig and other players, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Puig’s “in play,” as are other Dodgers outfielders and some of their pitchers, per Rosenthal, who notes that they’d like to clear payroll in order to make room for other potential acquisitions. Interestingly, Rosenthal reports there’s a possibility of the Dodgers taking on Reds righty Homer Bailey’s $28MM to essentially buy prospects from Cincinnati. Bailey would count $17.5MM against the competitive balance tax, making his money easier to deal with for LA than his salary. But there’s no trade close as of now, Rosenthal adds.
- More on the Reds, who have expressed interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. However, no trade is imminent, and it’s not clear what the Braves asked for in return, Sheldon writes. Inciarte would be an upgrade over ex-Red Billy Hamilton, whom they non-tendered last month. For the Braves, trading Inciarte would free up center field for Ronald Acuna Jr. Although, as a 28-year-old with up to four affordable seasons left on his contract, it would likely take a significant return for Atlanta to move Inciarte.
