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NL Notes: Castellanos, Cubs, Padres, Richards, Pirates

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Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is only about a week into his Cubs tenure, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription link) wonders if the free agent-to-be will work his way into the team’s plans past this season. Castellanos has excelled at the plate over a rather small sample of work as a Cub, and as Mooney explains, the former Tiger has taken a liking to his new franchise. While the 27-year-old Castellanos will be one of the top hitters in the upcoming winter’s free-agent class, a lack of defensive value figures to limit his earning power. The price could be palatable enough for the Cubs to retain him, but it wouldn’t be ideal that Castellanos would have to remain a full-time outfielder in a DH-less league.

More from the NL…

  • The Padres don’t expect the shoulder tightness that forced right-hander Garrett Richards from his latest rehab start to require an MRI, per Jeff Sanders on the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We’ll see how it responds over the coming week to treatment and when he picks up a ball in the near future,” manager Andy Green said of Richards. If all goes well, the former Angel could debut with the Padres sometime before this season ends. The Padres signed Richards to a two-year, $15.5MM contract last winter just a few months after he underwent Tommy John surgery.
  • Prized Pirates righty Mitch Keller is likely to return to the majors for a start next Tuesday, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests. The 23-year-old is one of the game’s highest-ranked pitching prospects, but a three-start audition in the majors from May to June didn’t go well. Keller allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits and six walks in a 12-inning span, though he did strike out 15 batters. And Keller has held his own this year in his debut in the offense-driven International League. In 103 2/3 innings with Triple-A Indianapolis, he has pitched to a 3.56 ERA/3.60 FIP with 10.68 K/9 and 3.04 BB/9.
  • More on the Pirates from Mackey, who has the latest on injured outfielder Gregory Polanco and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Polanco, who hasn’t played since June 16 because of left shoulder problems, has received clearance to restart baseball activities. It’s still not clear when he might return to the Bucs, however. Polanco also sat out the first couple weeks of 2019 on account of his shoulder, which required season-ending surgery last September. Cervelli, trying to work back from a concussion that has shelved him since May 25, is progressing toward catching again this season. The concussion-prone Cervelli will first need “final clearances from our doctors, the commissioner’s office and the [MLBPA],” Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said.

Latest On Garrett Richards Rehab

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Last winter, the Padres placed a limited but still-significant bet on the still-healing right arm of Garrett Richards. The expectation was that the Tommy John rehabber would be at full strength for the 2020 campaign and might even be ready in time to make a late contribution in 2019.

As of early July, it seemed things were proceeding well. Richards was ultimately sent out to begin a rehab assignment in mid-July, starting a thirty-day clock for potential MLB activation. That wasn’t a hard timeline — MLB rules allow the commissioner to grant up to three, ten-day rehab extensions for pitchers returning from TJS — but the 31-year-old would not have been put in a competitive pitching environment had he not been deemed ready to begin his march back to the MLB mound in earnest.

Richards started off gingerly, making two brief appearances with the Friars’ rookie ball Arizona League affiliate. His rehab work was placed in a higher gear in late July, when he joined the San Diego High-A outfit at Lake Elsinore. Richards didn’t exactly dominate in his first start: he allowed two earned runs on five hits and two walks, while generating just one strikeout, over 57 pitches in 2 1/3 innings.

It was encouraging, then, to see Richards come out of the gates in better form yesterday. He ran up five strikeouts against two walks and two base hits over 2 2/3 innings. Richards had only thrown 51 pitches to that point, thirty of them for strikes, so he surely was slated to remain on the hill at least to record his ninth out — if not also to begin the fourth inning.

Unfortunately, Richards ended up departing the mound at that point. The official word (Twitter link) is that the veteran righty was pulled with “apparent discomfort in his right shoulder.” The Mad Friars Twitter account indicates that trainers were looking at Richards’s shoulder rather than his recently repaired (and long problematic) elbow. While that’s not necessarily comforting in and of itself, it’s good to hear that the decision to pull him from the mound was deemed precautionary and that there’s no current expectation that Richards will miss a start.

Even if this proves to be a blip, it seems we’re still at least a few weeks away from potentially seeing Richards in the majors. Given its place in the standings, the San Diego club has no reason to proceed with anything but the utmost caution with the hard-throwing right-hander. He’ll still need to build his pitch count up and also spend some time fine-tuning against higher-level competition. And the organization will ultimately need to clear 40-man roster space to accommodate Richards (as will be required regardless once the season ends and the 60-day injured list goes dormant).

Garrett Richards Could Return In September

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Although the Padres sit below .500 (42-43) as the season nears the All-Star break, they’re still just two games back of a wild-card spot in the National League. If the team hangs in the race until late in the year, it could get back a key reinforcement in right-hander Garrett Richards. The Padres are hopeful the recovering Tommy John surgery patient will join their staff in September, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

Richards went under the knife last July, effectively ending his Angels tenure, but that didn’t stop the Padres from making a strong commitment to him in free agency. The club guaranteed $15.5MM over two years to Richards, thus making him their second-biggest offseason signing behind Manny Machado.

The 31-year-old Richards earned his deal as a result of a promising stint with the Angels, a 744 2/3-inning stretch from 2011-18 in which he logged a 3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP with 7.8 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent groundball rate. However, injuries – not just Richards’ damaged ulnar collateral ligament – undermined him toward the end of his Angels tenure. Richards concluded his run in Los Angeles with 76 1/3 or fewer innings in each of his final three seasons with the franchise.

When Richards has been healthy enough to take the mound, he has produced like someone capable of slotting in near the top of a team’s rotation. That explains why the starter-needy Padres took a gamble on him for a somewhat expensive amount of money. The team’s current rotation could certainly use a recovered Richards, having managed only mediocre numbers overall. Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have been good or better, as has Logan Allen across a mere three appearances. But no one from a trio consisting of Matt Strahm, Nick Margevicius and Cal Quantrill has offered a solution over a combined 33 starts.

As they continue to wait for Richards, the Padres will welcome righty Dinelson Lamet back to their rotation Thursday. The 26-year-old Lamet, like Richards, has recently seen Tommy John surgery stall his career. Lamet impressed as a rookie in 2017 before hitting the operating table in April 2018.

Padres Sign Aaron Loup

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3:32pm: Loup’s deal includes a $1.2MM guarantee in 2019 with $800K in incentives, per Heyman. The 2020 option is worth $2MM and features another $800K in incentives, or the Padres could buy him out for $200K. All told, it’s a $1.4MM pact that could max out at $4.8MM.

11:41am: The Padres have announced the signing. To make room for Loup on their 40-man roster, they moved Richards to the 60-day injured list.

10:25am: The Padres are set to sign left-handed reliever Aaron Loup, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Loup, a Beverly Hills Sports Council client, will receive a one-year, major league contract with a club option for 2020, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

The Padres will be the third franchise for the side-arming Loup, who has spent nearly all of his career with the Blue Jays organization since going in the ninth round of the 2009 draft. Loup’s run with Toronto finally came to an end last July when it dealt him to Philadelphia, where he spent upward of a month on the disabled list because of a left forearm strain. The 31-year-old returned toward the end of the season, though, and combined for two frames across five late-September appearances. In all, Loup totaled 39 2/3 innings between the two teams and recorded a 4.54 ERA/3.61 FIP with 9.98 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 49.2 percent groundball rate.

While Loup was unspectacular in 2018, he has generally been a solid major league reliever, particularly earlier in his career. Loup has accrued 50-plus innings three different times – including in 2017 – and posted a 3.49 ERA with a matching 3.49 FIP in 322 2/3 lifetime frames, over which he has struck out 8.34 batters per nine, walked 2.76 and generated grounders at an excellent 54.3 percent clip. Along the way, Loup has limited left-handed hitters to a weak .226/.301/.318 line, though he hasn’t been nearly as successful versus righties (.266/.340/.428).

Loup’s just the third major league signing in recent months for the Padres, who have also added second baseman Ian Kinsler and injured starter Garrett Richards on guaranteed deals since last season ended. A far bigger move could be in the offing, but regardless, Loup will join a bullpen that was among the majors’ best in 2018. He’ll also give the Padres a second capable southpaw reliever to join Jose Castillo if fellow lefties Matt Strahm and Robbie Erlin end up in starting roles.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Designate Carlos Asuaje, Announce Garrett Richards Deal

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The Padres announced this evening that they have designated infielder Carlos Asuaje for assignment. His roster spot will go to righty Garrett Richards, whose previously reported two-year deal is now official.

Asuaje, 27, originally came to the organization as part of the multi-player package received in exchange for closer Craig Kimbrel. The left-handed hitter has appeared in each of the past three seasons with the Padres but will now make way for a more-hyped crop of middle-infield talent.

Though he showed promise at the plate in 2017, Asuaje struggled quite a bit last year. He finished with a .196/.286/.280 slash through 218 plate appearances, though he did have a much better showing during his time at Triple-A (.314/.386/.463).

Teams considering Asuaje may find some comfort in the underlying numbers. Asuaje boosted his walk rate to 11.0%, which could bode well for the future. And he carried only a .243 batting average on balls in play in the bigs. That was an unlucky figure, Statcast suggests, crediting him with a .288 xwOBA that dwarfs his .255 wOBA.

Of course, even Asuaje’s hypothetically deserved offensive output wasn’t all that exciting. If he’s to carve out a role, it’ll likely be as a utility player. Asuaje has hit much better against right-handed pitching, which limits him but also suggests he could be useful in a platoon role. Defensive metrics have not loved him in a limited sample, though he’s generally considered a solid defender.

There’s some value in the fact that Asuaje is still optionable for another season. On the other hand, it doesn’t help his cause that he has never been considered capable of playing shortstop, though he does have plenty of lower-level experience at third base and has also spent some time in left field. All told, it’s possible he’ll be claimed, but by no means a given.

As for Richards, he’s still a long ways away from contributing on the field in San Diego, as his first priority will be to rehabilitate from Tommy John surgery. He’ll reportedly receive a hefty $15.5MM guarantee in hopes that he’ll be able to get back to full strength and provide the Friars with a high-quality rotation piece in 2020.

Padres To Sign Garrett Richards

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DECEMBER 7: The signing is now official. Richards will earn $7MM in the first year of the deal and $8.5MM in the second, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The contract includes $250K bonuses for every start he makes from his 21st through his 30th.

NOVEMBER 29, 7:14pm: Heyman tweets that Richards will be guaranteed $15.5MM and can earn another $2.5MM worth of incentives on the deal.

3:59pm: It’s a straight two-year deal for Richards, Passan further tweets. With incentives, the contract can max out at a total of $18MM.

3:49pm: Richards’ two-year agreement comes with a hefty guarantee of roughly $15MM, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). That’s a new precedent for a player coming off Tommy John surgery, though the timing of Richards’ surgery also makes it at least plausible that he could return to the mound before the end of the 2019 season.

3:45pm: The Padres have reached an agreement with free-agent right-hander Garrett Richards, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The ISE Baseball client was reported earlier today to be a target of both the Padres and the division-rival Dodgers.

Garrett Richards | Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Richards may not pitch in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid July, but other free-agent starters in his situation have recently landed two-year guaranteed deals with an eye toward contributing in the second season of that pact. Namely, both Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly signed two-year, $10MM contracts last winter (with the Twins and Cubs, respectively), while Nathan Eovaldi inked a two-year, $4MM pact with the Rays an offseason prior. All three of those hurlers had undergone Tommy John surgery and were known to be out for the vast majority of the first season of those two-year deals.

A former top 50 overall draft pick (No. 42 in 2009), Richards established himself on the Angels’ pitching staff in 2013 and looked to be one of the more promising young arms in the American League by the end of the 2015 campaign. In 2014-15, the righty pitched to a combined 3.18 ERA through 376 innings (58 starts) and averaged 8.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 along the way.

Injuries, however, have limited the now-30-year-old Richards to just 138 2/3 innings in the three seasons since that time. He’s been quite good when healthy enough to take the mound — 3.05 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.59 FIP — but by the lengthy slate of arm injuries that has slowed his career now make him an upside play in free agency rather than the potential frontline starter many expected he’d become after that strong 2013-15 showing.

The most recent ulnar collateral ligament injury for Richards was actually the second of his career; he also suffered a UCL tear back in 2016 but opted to undergo stem cell treatment to avoid surgery. While that did stave off Tommy John surgery for awhile, Richards was ultimately forced to undergo the procedure this past summer when he was diagnosed with another tear.

For the Padres, the addition of Richards dovetails nicely with the organization’s projected timeline to contend. The Friars have begun to mix in some win-now moves with their longstanding efforts to rebuild the organization and were said this offseason to be eyeing pitchers who can help them contend in 2020, when much of the upcoming wave of young talent has surfaced at the MLB level. The Friars have little in the way of rotation certainty at the moment, so it’s still possible that they could add another arm on a multi-year deal — likely one who’d still be in his prime into 2020 and beyond. They’ve been tied to younger free-agent starters like Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi this offseason, and they’ve also been rumored to have interest in Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.

Dodgers, Padres Pursuing Garrett Richards

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The Dodgers and Padres are among the teams pursuing free agent righty Garrett Richards, with Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter) reporting that both have made offers. The Los Angeles organization, in particular, is said to be “making a push” to keep the long-time Halos hurler in the region.

Richards has been derailed by elbow issues for some time now, recording only 138 2/3 total innings since the start of the 2016 season. While he was able to stave off Tommy John surgery for quite some time, he finally went under the knife last July and is expected to miss most or all of the 2019 season while recovering.

In all likelihood, then, the clubs pursuing Richards will be angling for some sort of multi-year arrangement. The current standard for this sort of situation is a two-year, $10MM pact. That’s what Drew Smyly (with the Cubs) and Michael Pineda (Twins) took home last year under similar circumstances, and it’s also what MLBTR predicted for Richards in our annual ranking of the top fifty free agents.

Of course, market forces could push the money or years in a different direction in this case. Richards is quite an accomplished pitcher, after all, having thrown 744 2/3 career MLB innings of 3.54 ERA ball. The high-velocity hurler is a consistent groundball producer (52.5% career GB rate) but has increasingly shown an ability to get whiffs (he has generated more than an eleven percent swinging-strike rate in each of the past four seasons and carries 9.6 K/9 in the past three).

It’s notable that these two California organizations are pushing for Richards, though he’d fit comfortably with any club that likes him and is interested in taking some financial risk for a potentially high-quality starter. There are some connections to the state that are worth noting: not only has Richards obviously spent his professional career to date in California, but he has family roots there as well. (He was born in the state, though spent most of his childhood in Oklahoma.)

Market Notes: Richards, Kikuchi, Rockies, Realmuto

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Our predictions at the top of the free agent market are certainly not for the faint of heart; by our reckoning, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have chances at securing record-setting contracts. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen, but a more pressing question for hot-stove enthusiasts may be whether we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s agonizingly slow market. It seems fair to say our overall slate of predictions represents a general bet that the activity will pick up this time around. Indeed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that there’s a broader sense that the 2018-19 offseason will feature action. The player market, he says, could be “robust early” and “awfully busy” all winter long.

We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:

  • While Garrett Richards will hit the market while still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, that doesn’t mean he won’t draw strong interest. Indeed, a dozen teams have already reached out, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). It’s no surprise to hear that, as quite a variety of clubs have agreed to two-year contractual arrangements with recovering hurlers in recent seasons, primarily in hopes of capturing value in the second season of the deal. MLBTR predicts that Richards will land a deal right in line with some of those cases.
  • The Dodgers factor as a strong possible suitor for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. It’s hard to argue with that assessment based upon recent history, even if the Los Angeles club seems to be well on its way to filling out a deep rotation mix. The Dodgers have secured several talented but less-hyped starters from Asia via the posting process and have given out several large deals to pitchers with injury questions. In this case, Kikuchi figures to draw a number of suitors, particularly since he’s just 27 years of age. But recent shoulder woes could be a red flag for some organizations. Truthfully, it’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on his potential market, but the Dodgers are among the west coast organizations that seem to be rather good fits if Kikuch is posted, as seems likely but has yet to be decided conclusively.
  • As the offseason gets underway, the Rockies represent a bit of a mystery team. They obviously look to be a contender, but have some clear needs and don’t appear to have much payroll flexibility barring a boost in their spending or clever move to shed salary. GM Jeff Bridich said today, as Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets, that the club will seek to oversee “responsible growth with the payroll,” adding that “success begets more growth.” That seems at least to leave open the possibility that the organization could add some more dollars to the books, though what kind of outlay might be possible remains unclear. Improving a lagging offense is the priority, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.
  • While the Marlins have given prior indication that they hoped to pursue a long-term deal with catcher J.T. Realmuto, his agent shot that idea down rather candidly, indicating that he does not expect his client to don a Marlins uniform in 2019. That hasn’t deterred the Miami brass, though, as Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to cover (Twitter links). CEO Derek Jeter rejoined recently that the Miami organization will decide where Realmuto plays. Today, president of baseball operations Michael Hill says that Realmuto’s apparent preferences won’t “impact in any way how we approach our offseason.” Of course, it still seems quite likely that the Marlins will end up marketing Realmuto this winter, as his value has undeniably crested after turning in a strong season with two more arb years left to go.

Injury Notes: Snell, Dickerson, Fowler, Williams, Skaggs

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As expected, the Rays have activated left-hander Blake Snell to start tonight’s game against the White Sox. The first-time All-Star will be on a limited pitch count following a two-week DL stint for left shoulder fatigue. Following a trade of Chris Archer to the Pirates, Snell looks like the only reliable starter in a Rays rotation that continues to see relievers open games more often than the starters themselves. Snell’s pre-injury performance, of course, was phenomenal; his 2.27 ERA would be more than a run lower than his career best season.

Here are a few other disabled list transactions from around the league…

  • Pirates outfielder Corey Dickerson has been activated after a short stint on the disabled list; he’d been sidelined with a left hamstring strain. They’ll surely be glad to have him back after the club traded away notable outfield depth in the form of Austin Meadows at the July 31st deadline. While he’s active, Dickerson won’t be starting today’s game against the Cardinals (though he’ll presumably be available off the bench).
  • As expected after last night’s news, Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler will hit the DL after suffering a fractured foot. Fowler’s enduring a miserable season that’s by far his career worst; he’s managed to hit an absolutely wretched .180/.278/.298 across 334 plate appearances while playing middling outfield defense. Fangraphs rates him as being 1.2 wins below replacement level on the season after a 2.5 fWAR debut with the Cards last year.
  • Switch-hitting relief pitcher Taylor Williams is headed to the DL with right elbow soreness. It’s certainly bad news for a Brewers bullpen that’s seeing Corey Knebel struggle mightily of late. Williams has tossed 42 2/3 relief innings and managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings, though he’s only managed to keep the ball on the ground 34.8% of the time and has walked a batter nearly every other inning on average. Williams is in the midst of his first full season in the majors after a 4 2/3 inning cup of coffee last year.
  • Angels hurler Tyler Skaggs is headed to the disabled list with a left adductor strain, the club has announced. Skaggs has described the injury as “extremely frustrating”, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. He apparently sustained it during his last start. In his stead, the Angels have called up right-hander Taylor Cole. The Angels, of course, have already seen their rotation annihilated by injuries this year, with Garrett Richards, Shohei Ohtani, J.C. Ramirez and Matt Shoemaker among the affected starters.

Garrett Richards To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Angels right-hander Garrett Richards has opted to undergo Tommy John surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, tweets J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. The news comes on the heels of a recent announcement from the Angels in which they revealed that an MRI had identified some damage to Richards’ right UCL. He was presented with both surgical and non-surgical treatment plans and had been weighing the decision over the past 24 hours.

Richards’ UCL tear comes at the worst possible time for the right-hander (not that there’s ever a “good” one), as he’d been slated to hit free agency at season’s end. The 30-year-old had previously rehabbed some UCL damage without surgery back in 2016, opting instead for stem-cell and platelet-rich plasma treatment (much in the same vein as Ervin Santana and Masahiro Tanaka, each of whom has avoided going under the knife entirely, to date). While that appeared to stave off a significant enough UCL tear to require surgical repair, though, Richards missed nearly all of the 2017 season with a biceps issue.

The 2018 season had been a largely healthy one for Richards, at least in terms of his right arm. He missed about three weeks due to a hamstring strain but had otherwise pitched well. However, in his just his second start back from that hamstring issue, he departed after three innings due to ever-ominous “forearm irritation” — a symptom that has increasingly proven to be a precursor to ligament damage.

Richards, now, will miss the remainder of the 2018 season and most, if not all of the 2019 season as well. He’ll still garner interest on the free-agent market, of course, but what at one point might’ve been an annual salary of $12MM+ on a multi-year deal may now drop to something along the lines of the two-year deals signed by Drew Smyly ($10MM), Michael Pineda ($10MM) and Nathan Eovaldi ($4MM) while each of those respective hurlers recovers from his own Tommy John procedure.

Alternatively, Richards could simply follow the route that both Greg Holland and Trevor Rosenthal have taken — opting not to sign a deal at all in the coming offseason and then auditioning for teams to demonstrate his health the following offseason. Either way, it’s quite possible that Richards has tossed his final game as a member of the Angels.

Devastating as the news must be to Richards, Hoornstra notes that the right-hander is approaching his latest injury with about as positive an outlook as possible (Twitter link).

“I’ll be back,” Richards said.“I’ll be ready. Everything will be fine. I’ll get through this. I’m going to be positive about this. I’m not going to dwell on the negative stuff. This is what was presented to me, and this is what I’ve got to deal with. Just try and tackle it.”

For the Angels, the move comes as a crushing blow. With just three weeks remaining until the non-waiver deadline, the loss of Richards will only further the seemingly inevitable reality that the team will need to look beyond the 2018 season and sell off short-term assets on the trade market this year. However, Richards was the top short-term asset the Angels had to market to other clubs, and he’ll now be taken off the market entirely, thus depriving the the team of the possibility of recouping any kind of prospect return for the loss of one of their longtime top starters.

Beyond all of that, the Angels will continue to face scrutiny for the rampant injury troubles that have permeated their rotation in recent seasons. In the last three years alone, the Angels have had Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano, J.C. Ramirez, Keynan Middleton, Blake Wood and John Lamb undergo Tommy John surgery, and that already plentiful list doesn’t include the current UCL tear through which Shohei Ohtani is playing (while serving only as a designated hitter). Meanwhile, others such as Alex Meyer, Nate Smith and Matt Shoemaker have gone under the knife for myriad other reasons.

Certainly not all of those injuries can be pinned on the Angels. Meyer’s shoulder troubles, for example, date back to his days with the Twins, while Lamb has had injuries of his own and was only briefly in the organization before requiring surgery. Ohtani was known to have some UCL damage at the time he was signed, though reports following the Angels’ recent announcement suggested this to be a new tear. Regardless, the barrage of pitching injuries the Angels have faced in recent years is undoubtedly something that’ll prompt a deep dive from the front office as it seeks to determine if there’s more than sheer coincidence and misfortune at play.

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