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Orioles Notes: Means, Stowers, Ownership

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The Orioles’ surprising second-half success came in spite of the loss of their top starter, as John Means was knocked out of action just two appearances into the year by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. That procedure occurred in late April, putting him a little more than nine months into his rehab. Means recently told reporters he’s “right on track” in that process, progressing to throwing from 140 feet off flat ground (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). He’s yet to begin throwing anything other than fastballs but indicated he’s likely to throw from a half-mound early in Spring Training.

A specific timetable for Means’ return to MLB action is unclear, as it’s obviously dependent on whether he can avoid setbacks as he further builds into a throwing program. He certainly won’t be ready for Opening Day but should factor into the mix at some point during the season. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, Means’ eventual return will be a welcome development for a Baltimore rotation whose only present locks are Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson. The O’s have a number of quality strike-throwers to mix in at the back end but not many pitchers capable of missing bats at a high level. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is the exception, and the young righty could get a chance to carve out a season-opening rotation role as a rookie.

While Rodriguez has yet to make his MLB debut, outfielder Kyle Stowers did reach the majors briefly last year. The 25-year-old corner outfielder appeared in 34 games, hitting .253/.306/.418 with a trio of home runs over 98 plate appearances. It was a solid first impression on the heels of an excellent .264/.357/.527 showing through 407 trips to the plate with Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s have Austin Hays and Anthony Santander to man the corner outfield on most days, although the lefty-swinging Stowers should have a path to reps at designated hitter and/or off the bench as a pinch-hitter.

“I think there’s value in being someone that can (adjust), whether it’s being a spark plug in a pinch-hit at-bat or be ready to go when your name is called,” Stowers told reporters (including Kubatko). As to whether he’s on the MLB roster and where he’s playing, the Stanford product noted he’s “not the one who makes those decisions. All I can control is how I play and how hard I play, and the effort I put toward. … Just take care of everything I can control.“

While those kinds of roster battles will be significant stories for the club over the coming weeks, much of the recent attention has been on the organization’s ownership situation. In-fighting among the Angelos family led to lawsuits between Louis, John and Georgia Angelos over the past few months. Those were all resolved yesterday, when the sides agreed to dismiss all claims against one another as part of a confidential settlement.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic explores the fallout of that agreement, pointing out a settlement might pave the way for Louis Angelos to reassume more involvement in the franchise’s operations. The organization’s ownership structure has been the subject of plenty of recent attention, particularly as they negotiate with the Maryland Stadium Authority for a new lease agreement. With their current deal at Camden Yards set to expire after the 2023 campaign, the O’s declined an option for a five-year extension in search of a longer contract last week.

Along with the recent internal squabbling among the Angelos family, the O’s are still embroiled in litigation with the Nationals regarding television rights fees related to their shared Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network (of which the O’s are majority owner) owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and it has remained pending at the New York State Court of Appeals in the three years since then.

Connolly writes that oral arguments on that are scheduled for mid-March and echoes previous reporting Major League Baseball continues to pressure the franchises for a resolution. The uncertain rights figure has reportedly been the main stumbling block in the Lerner family’s exploration of a sale of the Nationals over the past nine-plus months.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Angelos Family Members Drop Lawsuits Against One Another

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The ongoing litigation among the members of the Angelos family, who own the Orioles, have been dropped according to court documents first obtained by the Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Barker. The documents state Georgia Angelos and her sons, John and Louis, have agreed that “all claims, including all counterclaims and defenses, asserted therein be dismissed with prejudice.” The term “with prejudice,” from a legal vantage point, indicates that the charges within cannot be re-filed and that the case cannot be brought back to the courts at a future date. Specifics regarding the agreement to drop the suit were not provided.

Peter Angelos, now 93, headed up the ownership group and was the Orioles’ control person until 2018, when he began to cede more responsibility to his sons as his own health began to decline. Both John and Louis have held roles within the organization prior to that point and in the years since. John was formally approved by the league’s other owners as the Orioles’ new control person following the 2020 season.

The original lawsuit, filed by Louis, alleged that John had blocked his mother’s wishes to sell the team and that the two of them had taken control of the 93-year-old Peter Angelos’ assets — both the team and the family law firm — at Louis’ expense. The initial complaint from Louis alleged the following:

“John intends to maintain absolute control over the Orioles — to manage, to sell, or, if he chooses, to move to Tennessee (where he has a home and where his wife’s career is headquartered) — without having to answer to anyone.”

Georgia had subsequently filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging that he’d fabricated his claims in his own attempt to seize control of the family’s assets. Georgia’s suit sought to remove Louis as a successor and hold him liable for breach of fiduciary duty as well as exploitation of his father.

Needless to say, it’s been a bitter and ugly saga — the entire truth of his which may never fully come to light. John has vehemently denied the allegations made against him and has declared dating back to last June that the Orioles will remain in Baltimore for the long-term.

That said, following the Orioles’ decision to decline a five-year extension of their lease at Camden Yards, there’s some understandable unease among fans. The team says it plans to continue negotiating toward an even longer-term agreement to remain in Baltimore and remain at Camden Yards, where the current lease is set to expire on Dec. 31. John Angelos and Maryland governor Wes Moore both spoke optimistically over the weekend about striking an arrangement that would keep the Orioles at Camden Yards.

The now-resolved legal turmoil among the members of the Angelos family was just one of multiple legal battles surrounding the club. The Orioles and Nationals have been tied up in litigation regarding television rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, which broadcasts both their games, for more than a decade now. The Angelos family owns the majority share of MASN — roughly 77% — while the Nationals hold a 23% stake. Back in 2019, an arbitrator ruled that the network owed $105MM in unpaid rights fees to the Nats, but the subsequent MASN appeal of that ruling has not yet been heard. There’s no clear timeline for when a resolution might be reached.

AL Notes: Ohtani, Angels, Vespi, Yoshida, Red Sox

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Despite the busy Angels offseason, Shohei Ohtani’s future remains the team’s biggest question in 2023, and Arte Moreno’s decision not to sell the Angels adds another layer of intrigue to Ohtani’s situation.  Speaking with reporters (including the Associated Press), Halos GM Perry Minasian reiterated that the organization would love to keep Ohtani, and suggested that Moreno was willing to pay Ohtani the record-setting contract it might take to keep the two-way star in Anaheim.  “[Moreno has] already invested in this club throughout his whole ownership.  We’ve been top-10 in payroll for a long time,” Minasian said.  “I don’t see that changing.  Knowing [Moreno] and knowing how much he wants to win, I wouldn’t put anything out of the realm of possibility.”

Desire to win notwithstanding, Moreno’s ability to construct a winning team is the another factor, as the Angels are mired in a string of seven consecutive losing seasons.  Unsurprisingly, Ohtani was openly disappointed by the Halos’ lackluster 2022 campaign, and any doubts he has about the Angels’ ability to compete might possibly result in Ohtani signing with a more proven contender next winter.  Even if Moreno is willing to splurge on Ohtani and take the Angels into luxury tax territory, it might not be enough to sway Ohtani from a comparable offer from a winning team.

More from around the American League….

  • Orioles left-hander Nick Vespi underwent hernia surgery in early January, and the reliever told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that he is “cleared to throw, so I am starting to throw already and I’ll be ready for Opening Day.”  There was some doubt as to whether or not Vespi’s recovery process might last into the early part of the season, and while it appears that might not be an issue, Vespi will miss pitching for Italy in the World Baseball Classic.  Vespi made his MLB debut in 2022, posting a 4.10 ERA over 26 1/3 innings out of the Orioles’ bullpen.  Cionel Perez and Keegan Akin are Baltimore’s top southpaw options in the relief corps, though Vespi may face further competition from any left-handed starting candidates who don’t make the rotation.
  • The Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM deal in December, an investment that surpassed all projections for Yoshida as he made the move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors.  That said, the Sox also feel “other teams were prepared to bid more aggressively for Yoshida than has been widely reported,” the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  The Blue Jays and Dodgers were reportedly the other finalists for Yoshida’s services, though it isn’t known what those two clubs were willing to pay.  The $90MM guarantee is also a sign of just how much faith the Red Sox have in Yoshida’s ability to continue his production against Major League pitching, which is a belief born from heavy scouting and evaluation of Yoshida in Japan over the last three years.

Quick Hits: Muñoz, Sadler, Vavra

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke with the media this week, including Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN, in advance of the start of Spring Training. During those talks, Dipoto provided an update on reliever Andrés Muñoz.

Muñoz, 24, had a tremendous breakout last year, posting a 2.49 earned run average over 64 appearances. That ERA probably shortchanges Munoz a bit, who struck out 38.7% of batters faced while walking just 6% of them and got ground balls at a 52.6% clip. ERA estimators all thought he actually deserved better, including a 2.04 FIP, 1.84 xERA and 1.74 SIERA. After the club was eliminated from the postseason in October, he underwent foot surgery, but he’s already out of a walking boot and began a throwing program two weeks ago.

The fireballer has emerged as a key piece of the club’s bullpen, something they seemingly anticipated when they extended him after the 2021 season. The righty had just returned from Tommy John surgery and made a single appearance that year, but the M’s had enough faith to sign him to a four-year, $7.5MM extension with three club options. That could keep him as a fixture of the club’s relief corps through the 2028 season, and his current health is surely a good sign for the club going into 2023.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Dipoto also provided an update on another reliever in 32-year-old Casey Sadler, who is coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery but is going to be ready to go for Spring Training this year. In 2021, Sadler made 42 appearances for the M’s with a ridiculous 0.67 ERA. That level of run prevention was in no way sustainable, with Sadler benefitting from a .188 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate. But his 25.5% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 62.9% ground ball rate all point to an excellent campaign nonetheless, with Sadler pegged for a 2.48 FIP, 2.41 xERA and 3.06 SIERA. Unfortunately, he required the surgery on his shoulder in March of 2022, which kept him out for all of that year. The Mariners outrighted him off the roster in November but re-signed him to a minor league deal. “If we get that ’21 version of Casey Sadler with the bullpen group we currently have, that just takes us to a different level,” Dipoto said. Despite trading Erik Swanson to the Blue Jays in the Teoscar Hernández deal, the M’s bullpen is still pretty packed. Munoz should be joined by Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo, Matt Brash, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa and Trevor Gott, as well as Rule 5 draftee Chris Clarke. If the rotation is fully healthy, Chris Flexen should be in the bullpen as well as a long reliever. Sadler was so good in 2021 that he could force his way into the picture if he looks like he’s back on track. Despite the crowding, pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable and this pile of depth should serve Seattle well as the season progress.
  • Orioles utility player Terrin Vavra, 26 in May, cracked the majors last year and managed fairly well by hitting .258/.340/.337 in his first 103 plate appearances. That production was just barely below league average, with his wRC+ coming in at 97, though he hit a much sturdier .324/.435/.451 in Triple-A. Between the two levels, he played second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions, making him a usefully versatile piece of the club’s roster. It seems he’s not satisfied with that level of versatility and has been working to add first base to his repertoire this offseason. “I don’t think until I really play a game over there, I’ll truly feel the most comfortable, but that’s what spring training’s for,” Vavra tells Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun. “I think I’ll get some opportunities to showcase that and showcase other talents and try and make my case. I want to be able to show that I can do that, and I want the coaching staff to be confident if they had to send me out there, Day 1 of spring training even.” The O’s have been looking to find left-handed bats to complement right-hander Ryan Mountcastle in the first base mix, acquiring Lewin Díaz and Ryan O’Hearn this offseason, as well as signing Franchy Cordero, Josh Lester and Nomar Mazara to minor league deals. But Vavra, who also hits left-handed, could have a leg up on that group since none of them are on the 40-man but Vavra is. On the other hand, Vavra has option years remaining and could be ticketed for some more time in the minors if he gets squeezed off the active roster.

AL East Notes: Orioles, DL Hall, Red Sox

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The Orioles took a major step forward last season, and now general manager Mike Elias has declared their rebuild over.

“I believe that our rebuild is behind us. We’ve got an incredible chance now to be a very, very competitive team for years,” Elias told reporters, including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

That team will depend on the performance of it’s young core, led by Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and soon to include Grayson Rodriguez. Yet while the team is stocked with exciting young talent Orioles fans may have some reason to feel a little disappointed by the team’s modest acquisitions in the off-season thus far.

They’ve so far brought in starters Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, added reliever Mychal Givens, infielder Adam Frazier and catcher James McCann. While that group can all help the Orioles it’s not the splashy addition some might have been hoping for as the O’s look to compete in the tough AL East, yet Elias isn’t ruling out further additions by trade or in free agency.

“There are quality free agents remaining. We’re staying in touch in them. We’re still pursuing opportunities. There are some players on the free-agent market that interest us,” Elias said.

Given the dwindling options in free agency, it’s likely any signing would be more of a depth piece rather than an impact player. Baltimore was connected to free agent starter Michael Wacha throughout the off-season, but the addition of Irvin would seemingly make any more rotation additions unlikely. They’ve also been reported to be in the market for a defensive-minded outfielder.

Here’s a couple more notes from the AL East:

  • Sticking with the Orioles to begin with, Elias says there are 12 players in the mix for the starting rotation come Opening Day. Gibson and Irvin are locks, while Elias has already said he expects top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to make the team’s rotation out of camp, so that’d leave nine players competing for the final two spots. One of them will be prospect DL Hall, with Elias saying he’ll have a chance to compete for a rotation spot in the spring. Hall came in at 84th on Keith Law’s recently published top-100 prospect list. He did get a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues last year, but it’s possible the Orioles look to keep him at Triple-A at least to begin the season.
    MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a deeper look at Baltimore’s rotation options recently, but other candidates include Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth and Spenser Watkins.
  • The Red Sox won’t be aggressive in seeking further upgrades to their roster, but they are at least keeping the door open to making a move, particularly in the middle-infield, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said the team likes the group they’ve got, so it seems likely that further moves would be minor league deals or bench pieces. Enrique Hernandez and Adalberto Mondesi are slated to handle the bulk of the middle-infield reps in 2023, with Christian Arroyo the top option off the bench.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, Bleday, Alvarez, Outman, Steer

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Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, at which point we’ll have more to discuss in virtually every facet of the sport. Until then, let’s review more prospects tangentially connected to the news. Today’s episode coincidentally includes a number of left-handed hitters with holes in their swing.

Five BHPs In The News

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 626 PA, 19 HR, 18 SB, .278/.406/.469

In a recent radio spot, Orioles general manager Mike Elias indicated a belief Cowser will debut later this season. A recent review of the Baltimore farm system published by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offers modest cause for concern. There are now questions about Cowser’s ability to perform against low-in-the-zone breaking balls and inside fastballs. Those are two very large holes for a big league hitter, indicating Cowser might require a carefully managed role once he is promoted. The lower-half stiffness noted by Longenhagen is a new issue and might relate to the workload Cowser shouldered last season. In order to improve and adjust, Cowser could require a long stint in Triple-A.

JJ Bleday, 25, OF, MIA (MLB)
(MLB) 238 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .167/.277/.309

The left-handed hitting slugger has two massive issues to overcome – a weakness against up-and-away fastballs and a pulled, fly-ball-oriented approach lacking in high-quality exit velocities. Both issues were on full display in Bleday’s first season, and he has used up his rookie eligibility. Bleday is currently expected to compete with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz for playing time in left field. Unless he improves upon both shortcomings, the former fourth-overall pick will be limited to heavily scripted usage against right-handed sinkerballers. Achieving such an adjustment will likely require a new swing and a return to Triple-A to digest the changes.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 411 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

A burly backstop who frequently draws hitting comps to Salvador Perez, Alvarez will need to play his way onto an Opening Day roster that already includes catchers Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. While neither player is expected to block Alvarez, he also has a second pathway onto the roster – designated hitter. As we learned yesterday, the Mets are carrying a veteran tandem of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham in part to leave a door open for Alvarez and Brett Baty (covered last week) to get at-bats as part of the revolving door at DH.

As a hitter, Alvarez appears primed for the Show. There is near-term concern about his rate of contact and occasional lapses into over-selectivity. Even so, these are small issues to polish rather than fatal flaws.

James Outman, 25, OF, LAD (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 559 PA, 31 HR, 13 SB, .294/.393/.586

Although the Dodgers have made peace with crossing the first luxury tax threshold, they’ve done little to fortify their left field mix. Outman will compete with the likes of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward for a regular role this spring. Outman’s approach could serve as a roadmap for Bleday. The left-handed hitting Outman makes frequently pulled, fly ball contact, but he isn’t nearly as extreme as the similarly built Marlins outfielder. Outman also consistently delivers line drives which allows him to post above-average BABIPs. Toss in above-average plate discipline, and he has a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power despite expectations of a 30 percent strikeout rate.

Spencer Steer, 25, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 427 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

Acquired as part of the return in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer looks the part of a future second-division starter or frequently-used utility man. The Reds are in a year of transition with Steer eyeing a role as the regular third baseman. Long-term, he’ll need to contend with the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain – whichever among those doesn’t take over at shortstop. Steer is considered a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact, above-average plate discipline, and an ability to pop mistakes. The cozy confines of Great American Ballpark should help his power production. One question he’ll need to answer relates to his consistency of contact quality. In a 108-plate appearance trial last season, Steer posted an 84.7-mph average and 104.4-mph max exit velocity, which were well below Major League average.

Three More

George Valera, CLE (22): After managing a league-average batting line at Triple-A last season, Valera is on pace to debut at some point in 2023. He won’t be making the Opening Day roster due to a recent hamate injury. Such injuries are hard to predict, as the recovery is speedy in some cases, but some players are left with lesser bat control for weeks or months after returning. Occasionally, as with Alex Kirilloff, a secondary issue can linger indefinitely.

Kyle Stowers, BAL (25): Currently in the outfield and designated hitter mix for Baltimore, Stowers has a brief window to cement a role as a righty-masher before a flood of high-ceiling prospects joins the roster. Stowers is patient, strikeout-prone, and powerful, rendering him a Three True Outcomes option. Such hitters are volatile as they’re heavily reliant on hitting home runs at just the right time.

Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (23): General manager Mike Elias reiterated his belief that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day rotation. There’s still the messy part of actually navigating Spring Training, especially since Rodriguez’s stuff had declined at last look, though he was returning from a lat injury at the time. Even the September version of Rodriguez looked like a future rotation mainstay.

Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

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The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Orioles Outright Darwinzon Hernandez

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The Orioles announced on Thursday that reliever Darwinzon Hernandez has cleared waivers. He’s been sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk and will stick in the organization without occupying a 40-man roster spot. The O’s have extended him a non-roster invitation to big league Spring Training.

Hernandez, 26, changed organizations for the first time last month after being designated for assignment by the Red Sox. The southpaw had spent his entire career with Boston since signing out of Venezuela a decade ago. The O’s swung a minor trade with their division rivals, bringing in Hernandez for cash considerations. His stay on their 40-man lasted just a couple weeks, as Baltimore DFA him a week ago upon acquiring Cole Irvin from Oakland.

The pair of transactions allow the O’s to stash a hard-throwing lefty reliever as a non-roster player in the upper minors. Hernandez has pitched in each of the last four MLB seasons, flashing tantalizing stuff but too often struggling to throw strikes. He posted a 3.38 ERA through 40 innings as recently as 2021 but was lit up for 17 runs in just 6 2/3 frames last season.

Overall, Hernandez now carries a 5.06 ERA across 85 1/3 MLB innings. He has an excellent 32.3% strikeout rate and has gotten swinging strikes on a quality 12.5% of his overall offerings. His combination of a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s breaking pitch that garnered plus or better grades from prospect evaluators is clearly capable of missing bats at the highest level. Yet no other pitcher with 50+ innings over the past four seasons has walked batters more often than Hernandez, who has dished out free passes at a 17.7% clip.

Assuming he doesn’t reestablish himself on the MLB roster during Spring Training, Hernandez will head to Norfolk to start the year. He owns 5.29 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout percentage but an 18.8% walk rate in parts of three seasons at the top minor league level. He still has one option year remaining, so the O’s could bounce him between Baltimore and Norfolk if he reclaims a 40-man spot at any point. Hernandez would reach minor league free agency at the end of the season if he’s not a part of the 40-man roster.

The Orioles have Keegan Akin and Cionel Pérez as their top left-handed relievers. Nick Vespi is also on the 40-man roster, although his specific timeline is unclear after recent sports hernia surgery. Hard-throwing pitching prospect DL Hall might be best suited for a bullpen role given his own strike-throwing concerns, while Drew Rom and Bruce Zimmermann are candidates for depth roles in either the rotation or long relief.

Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Former MLB Pitcher Scott Feldman

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Scott Feldman was drafted in 2002 in the 41st round by the Astros out of a junior college: College of San Mateo in California.  He was a draft-and-follow and didn’t end up signing with the Astros.  Because of the Astros’ claim on Feldman’s rights, he wasn’t scouted heavily after they drafted him.  So in 2003, Feldman wound up being drafted by the Rangers in the 30th round “as a favor to my agent,” as he later put it.  Shortly thereafter, his elbow started hurting, and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery.

That progression did not put Feldman on the radar of prospect gurus, and he worked out of the bullpen in the minor leagues.  He cracked the Majors in late 2005 with a brief look out of the Rangers’ bullpen.  Feldman spent the ’06 and ’07 seasons bouncing between Triple-A and long relief work in the bigs.

The Rangers decided to try Feldman as a starter in 2008, and he kept getting looks in the rotation as needs arose.  Feldman made 25 starts that year, but still didn’t have a rotation spot locked up.  By late April of ’09, however, he took over for an injured incumbent and didn’t look back.  Feldman put up a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts that year, his 17 wins ranking fifth in MLB.  Feldman’s breakout 2009 season, which included an 11-strikeout effort and six different scoreless outings, led to the Rangers’ Opening Day nod in 2010.  He also landed a three-year contract with a club option for a fourth.

Feldman dealt with knee surgery and the recovery process in 2010 and ’11, and he moved in and out of the Rangers’ rotation.  The Rangers declined their club option for 2013, and Feldman reached free agency for the first time.  He found a rotation spot on a one-year deal with the rebuilding Cubs.

After a fine start to the 2013 season, the Cubs famously traded Feldman to the Orioles in the deal that brought back Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop.  Returning to free agency after that season, Feldman inked a three-year, $30MM deal to join another rebuilding club, the Astros.  He garnered the club’s Opening Day start in 2014.

Feldman did solid work for the Astros outside of some injuries.  In the final year of his contract, he was dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.  He landed a one-year deal with the Reds for 2017 and snagged their Opening Day start — his third such honor with a third different club.  Feldman underwent season-ending knee surgery in August of that year.

Scott tried to rehab his knee to play in 2018 or ’19, but as he puts it, “it wasn’t meant to be.”  He notes, “In April of 2019 I decided I was done. I’ve reflected a lot on how lucky I was to get to play professional baseball from 2003-2017. All the great people I got to be around on a daily basis for 15 years. Teammates, coaches, clubhouse guys, front office, ownership.”

Feldman wound up having a very nice MLB career, especially for a guy who didn’t have those aspirations in high school.  He won 78 games and made 204 starts, tallying nearly 1,400 innings.  He got to pitch in the 2011 postseason for the Rangers, including five outings in the World Series against the Cardinals.  Feldman provided a lot of value to teams by gobbling up innings, and he always displayed excellent control.  Born in Kailua, Hawaii, Feldman was one of the game’s best pitchers to come out of that state.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in a free-agent profile of Feldman back in 2013, his father was an FBI agent and army veteran.  Feldman discussed his close relationship with his father in a 2014 interview with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, shortly after his father passed away after a lengthy battle with brain cancer.  As McTaggart noted, Feldman pitched just two days later and fired seven shutout innings.

For those wondering what Scott is up to now, he writes, “I’ve been staying busy with a couple real estate projects here and there, spending time with family, traveling, golfing, a little bit of coaching at my alma mater, taking some classes, hiring the right people to work with, re-establishing community in Northern California after being away for such a long time, trying to give back, and planning for what might be next.”  Scott is involved with Stop Soldier Suicide, as well as a mental health and wellness company called Most Days.

We were thrilled to have Scott join us to chat with MLBTR readers about a variety of topics including his experience pitching in the World Series, navigating free agency three different times, being traded midseason and more. Click here to read the transcript!

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