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Replacing A Strikeout Machine

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The Diamondbacks and much-maligned former general manager Dave Stewart made a shrewd pickup six years ago when they acquired left-hander Robbie Ray from the Tigers in a three-team trade. Ray has been one of the most productive players on Arizona’s roster since then, but his time in the desert may be nearing an end. Regardless of whether a season takes place, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Ray may choose to test the free-agent market in the winter, when he’d rank near the top of the list of available starters.

[RELATED: Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal]

The most appealing thing about Ray is that he fans hitters in droves, having struck out 11-plus batters per nine in four straight seasons. He ranked third in that category last year with 12.13 K/9, trailing only now-$324MM man Gerrit Cole and former teammate Max Scherzer. Problem is that Ray hasn’t kept runs off the board at elite rates like Cole and Scherzer have, nor has he been the innings-eating workhorse along their lines. Ray’s the owner of a lifetime 4.11 ERA/3.97 FIP and has never reached the 175-frame mark in a season.

Most recently, Ray pitched to a 4.34 ERA/4.29 FIP across 174 1/3 innings in 2019. That’s not ace-like production, but there’s nothing wrong with it at all, and the Diamondbacks might soon have to find a way to replace it. They’ve at least pondered it, as Ray has been the subject of countless trade rumors over the past couple seasons. No offer has gotten Arizona to bite thus far, though, and after a strong 85-win effort last year, the club doesn’t seem prepared to part with Ray in the near future. Rather, the Diamonbacks made a serious effort to improve their rotation in the offseason by signing ex-Giant Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM pact. The belief then was that there would be a season, and the hope was that Ray, Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen and Mike Leake would form a tremendous starting five.

The potential is certainly there for the D-backs’ rotation to be a smash success in 2020. But it may well end up as Ray’s last season with the club. The same goes for Leake, who has an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout for 2021. A rotation devoid of Ray and Leake would still have a nice trio in Bumgarner, Weaver and Gallen, but what of the other two spots? Arizona just spent pretty big on Bumgarner, so maybe it would shop at the high end of the market again for someone like old friend Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, James Paxton or Jose Quintana. Otherwise, at the mid- and lower-tier levels of free agency, there should be quite a few somewhat intriguing arms available. You also can’t discount the trade market, where Matthew Boyd, Jon Gray and Chris Archer are some of the hurlers who could soon be available.

As far as in-house options go, Arizona doesn’t appear to be loaded with immediate solutions. The Diamondbacks could keep Merrill Kelly for $4.25MM, but he may be a buyout candidate ($500K) after producing mediocre results in 2019. The team does have several other choices who have either pitched in the majors or are almost ready for MLB (Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener, J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin are some examples), though nobody there has a proven track record of racking up outs at the game’s highest level.

If you’re the D-backs, one of the many reasons you’re hoping a season occurs is so what looks like a very good rotation can help you break a two-year playoff drought. But that rotation looks as if it will weaken soon, largely on account of Ray’s pending free agency.

Revisiting The Braves’ Fleecing Of The D-Backs In The Shelby Miller Trade

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In late 2015, the Braves drummed up quite a bidding war for right-handed pitcher Shelby Miller, who became one of the biggest names on that winter’s trade market. As a controllable, 25-year-old starter who had spent the last year toiling away on a Braves team that lost 95 games, he garnered interest from as many as 20 teams: what’s not to like? This was a player who could boost a team’s playoff chances not only for the coming year, but for the foreseeable future as well—and he was attainable. Unfortunately for the team that won that bidding war, the Arizona Diamondbacks, it gave way to one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory.

In its entirety, the five-player deal sent Miller and relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks, who in turn gave up Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Aaron Blair to the Braves. Just about six months earlier, the D-Backs made Swanson, a 21-year-old shortstop from Vanderbilt, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. For that hefty price, Arizona got their man.

Miller was coming off a year in which he notched an unsightly 6-17 W-L record, but that mark was wildly misaligned with his 3.02 ERA, which fell just outside the top 10 in the NL. He did that while tossing 205 1/3 innings in his first (and only) year in Atlanta, which acquired him as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Jason Heyward to the Cardinals.

But the D-Backs’ valuation of Miller proved to be severely misguided. In his first year in Arizona, he would go 3-12 and was credited with just 0.6 fWAR. And while you need to look just a year in the past for evidence that W-L records can be misleading, Miller couldn’t hang his hat on a good ERA this time around: his 6.15 ERA in 20 starts was the worst among NL starters with at least 100 IP. Despite the impressive run prevention numbers from 2015, Miller’s price tag portrayed him as a front-line starter when he was probably more accurately described as a mid-rotation arm.

The move firmly declared Arizona GM Dave Stewart’s intent to contend in the immediate future. Acquiring Miller came on the heels of the Zack Greinke free-agent signing, which gave the D-Backs a formidable rotation of Greinke, Miller, Robbie Ray, and Patrick Corbin. Add that to an offense anchored by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and it’s not hard to see how Arizona perceived a path to the postseason. However, they would win just 69 games in 2016 and essentially wound up as a re-imagination of the previous year’s Padres, a team that likewise went all in only to fall flat.

Even in the immediate aftermath of the deal, many viewed the deal as a vast overpay on the Diamondbacks’ part. But that negative public perception apparently didn’t bother the club, which was dead-set on vaulting itself into the playoff picture after winning 79 games the year before. It’s an admirable approach, no doubt, to try to capitalize on the coincidence of Paul Goldschmidt’s prime with the big-money signing of Greinke. But in this case, the price just didn’t match the prize. Of course, as we know now, the team would have to wait a year—and install a new front office regime—before they broke into the 2017 postseason as a Wild Card team.

At the time, Swanson was one of the first draftees (and first number one choice) to be traded under a new rule that allowed teams to deal drafted players after the World Series in the year of their selection. He is one of three first overall selections to have been traded before debuting with the team that drafted him. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in his summation of the trade at the time, Swanson was the latest in a series of moves that illustrated the Arizona regime’s apparent devaluation of draft picks: by trading Swanson, signing Greinke (and therefore surrendering their 2016 top pick), and trading Touki Toussaint, the team had effectively missed out on three consecutive years of first-round selections.

Swanson was heralded as the shortstop of the future for Atlanta, which had just recently shipped Andrelton Simmons to the Angels. And although Swanson maybe hasn’t been the superstar that we expect from a No. 1 overall draft pick, he’s been a good MLB shortstop and showed us glimpses of another gear last year, when he had his best offensive season thanks to improved power output. If that upward trend is to be believed and he can provide even slightly above-average offensive numbers, Swanson can really solidify himself as a building block in Atlanta, thanks to his solid defense at a key position. Check out the growth in Swanson’s hard-hit rate and expected hitting stats from 2018 to 2019, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Inciarte, meanwhile, wound up being a surprisingly important piece of the deal for the Braves. He won the Gold Glove Award for NL center fielders in each of his first three years in Atlanta, ultimately serving as a nice transitional piece between losing years in 2014-2017 and the contending teams of today. And while he’s seen his role with the Braves diminish over the last couple of years, he proved to be a pretty solid acquisition for a team that lacked quality Major League talent outside of Freddie Freeman. He was a fine guy to pencil into center field every day while the franchise cultivated a core of young players.

Neither Blair nor Speier wound up contributing much to the teams that acquired them: Speier made his MLB debut last year with the Royals, who got him in exchange for Jon Jay, and Blair hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017. He was a former first-round pick himself, but failed to put things together when he got his chance with the Braves in 2016.

All told, the combination of Inciarte, Swanson, and Blair has thus far produced 13.1 fWAR for the Braves, with more likely to come from Swanson and, to a lesser extent, Inciarte. For the Diamondbacks, Miller and Speier produced a meager 0.7 fWAR. Miller lasted just three years in Arizona, appearing in only 29 games and pitching 139 innings for the team.

Last year, he got a chance with the Rangers and toggled between the bullpen and the starting rotation, but the change of scenery didn’t seem to help his fortunes. He tossed 44 innings of 8.59-ERA ball, striking out just 30 batters. In January of this year, he earned himself a minor-league deal with the Brewers, and was expected to begin the season with the team’s Triple-A affiliate.

The D-backs Replaced Paul Goldschmidt With A Waiver Claim — And It Worked

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It’s been three years since Christian Walker rode the waiver carousel. A 2012 fourth-round pick of the Orioles, Walker’s chance of being a regular with the Baltimore organization likely went up in flames the moment owner Peter Angelos green-lighted the seven-year, $161MM deal that brought Chris Davis back to the club after he’d reached free agency. The Orioles still had a designated hitter spot, but a year later in the 2016-17 offseason, the Orioles re-signed Mark Trumbo to a three-year deal that only further cut into Walker’s opportunities. In Spring Training 2017, Walker was cut loose when the O’s acquired Richard Bleier from the Yankees.

From there, it was a whirlwind month for Walker — and likely one with a fair bit of frustration. After being blocked in Baltimore by Davis and Trumbo, Walker was surely hoping for a clearer path to the Majors. Instead, he landed in the National League, with no DH… behind Freddie Freeman. The Braves claimed Walker four days after his DFA in Baltimore but tried to sneak him through waivers themselves not two weeks later. Walker was again left to hope for a path to the Majors. Upon landing in Cincinnati on another claim, he was, of course, looking straight up at an in-his-prime Joey Votto. Three weeks later, Walker hit waivers again when the Reds tried to outright him at the end of camp. This time, he landed directly behind Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona.

Christian Walker | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The D-backs finally succeeded in passing him through waivers, though they selected him back to the big leagues later that year. For two seasons, Walker obliterated Triple-A opposition, slashing a combined .305/.372/.586 (142 wRC+) with 50 home runs, 59 doubles and 13 triples. And yet, his Major League counterpart matched him blow for blow in the big leagues; Goldschmidt posted a ridiculous .294/.396/.547 (144 wRC+) with 69 home runs, 69 doubles and eight triples. By the time the 2018 season concluded, Walker was out of minor league options while Goldschmidt entered the final season of his contract.

A trade of Goldschmidt seemed plausible but hardly a sure thing entering the winter of 2018-19. There was little hope of the D-backs re-signing him with Zack Greinke still on the books. Goldschmidt had already signed one team-friendly extension in his career and wasn’t likely to do so a second time. The D-backs explored deals involving both Goldschmidt and Greinke that winter, ultimately lining up with the Cardinals on a return of Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick (Round B).

Even at that point, though, Walker wasn’t a lock to step into Goldschmidt’s shoes. The D-backs had re-signed Eduardo Escobar to a three-year deal, crowding the third base mix and perhaps pushing Jake Lamb across the diamond to first base. Lamb’s 2018 season was ruined by a shoulder injury, but he hit 59 home runs from 2016-17, batting a combined .248/.345/.498 along the way. A platoon looked to be the likeliest outcome for the right-handed-hitting Walker and the lefty-swinging Lamb, and that’s indeed how the club operated — until Lamb landed on the injured list once again on April 5 with a quadriceps injury that would sideline him into late June.

Prior to the 2019 season, Walker hadn’t started consecutive games in the Majors since Sept. 2014. With Goldschmidt out the door and Lamb on the shelf, however, the everyday opportunity he’d sought in the nearly five years since making his MLB debut was sitting right in front of him, and he seized it. Walker appeared inn 71 games while Lamb was on the IL — starting 66 of them — and hit .258/.333/.461 with 11 homers, 17 doubles, a triple, four steals and elite defense at first base. Even with Lamb back in the fold and playing on a $4.825MM salary, Walker had earned the trust of the organization and earned himself an everyday role.

By season’s end, the then-28-year-old Walker had compiled a .259/.348/.476 slash and 29 home runs. While his hitter-friendly home park and the juiced ball that prompted home run totals throughout the league to explode rendered that production perhaps a bit lighter than some might expect (112 wRC+, 111 OPS+), Walker complemented his output at the plate with quality baserunning and with some of the best glovework of any first baseman in the Majors. Walker’s 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 9 Outs Above Average trailed only Oakland’s Matt Olson for the MLB lead at his position. Walker’s 3.0 bWAR, in fact, topped the 2.4 mark of the franchise icon he’d replaced.

It’ll be important to see how he carries himself at the plate in the event of a course correction with regard to the composition of the baseball, but there’s little reason to doubt his ability. Walker (fittingly) drew a base on balls in 11.1 percent of his plate appearances and was among the game’s very best in terms of hard-hit rate (94th percentile), average exit velocity (85th percentile), xwOBA (81st percentile) and percentage of barreled balls (90th percentile). And even if those numbers take a step back, his superb glovework and excellent baserunning (relative to his positional peers) help to give Walker a relatively high floor.

All of that should be music to the ears of the D-backs, whose patience in hanging onto Walker was rewarded not only with a potential everyday heir to the first base slot — but one that can be controlled all the way through the 2024 campaign. Heading into the 2020 season — assuming there is one — there should be little doubt that Walker has a firm grip on the starting job that’s eluded him for his entire career. As insane as it would have sounded when Walker was acquired in 2017 and as improbable as it might’ve seemed even last spring, the D-backs look like they’ve successfully replaced Goldschmidt with a waiver claim.

Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal

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Back in the 2013-14 offseason, the Tigers were looking to move a veteran starter … but not because they were in a rebuild. The club had taken three consecutive AL Central titles (and would add another in the ensuing campaign).

The issue was quite the opposite: with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly all on the staff, the Detroit organization felt it had depth to spare. Looking ahead at the cost to retain the team’s stars — they ultimately failed to reach a deal with Scherzer but inked a monster extension with Miguel Cabrera later that offseason — the decision was made to trim some costs where possible and bring back some long-range talent.

Meanwhile, the Nationals were in search of a quality arm to plug into would land Fister in a swap that sent a largely underwhelming three-player package back to the Tigers. Utilityman Steve Lombardozzi and lefty reliever Ian Krol were each young players with MLB experience but little in the way of apparent ceiling. The Tigers hoped that they’d be affordable contributors, but neither carved out a career in Detroit. The most interesting long-term piece was a notable but not overly heralded lefty pitching prospect by the name of Robbie Ray.

This wasn’t quite how the Tigers wanted talks to play out. The club reportedly wanted a different young hurler to headline the deal: Taylor Jordan, who had emerged out of obscurity in 2013. Jordan utilized his decidedly Fister-esque skillset to compile 51 2/3 innings of 3.66 ERA work in 2013, averaging just 5.1 K/9 but limiting the walks (1.9 BB/9) and homers (0.52 HR/9) while generating lots of groundballs (57.5%). It seemed Jordan might well be a long-term rotation piece, even if it was unlikely he’d ever really dominate.

Ray, a 22-year-old former 12th-round pick, hadn’t yet reached the highest level of the minors, let alone the bigs. But he was perhaps a higher-ceiling young hurler than Jordan. In 2013, Ray worked to a 3.68 cumulative ERA over 142 frames at the High-A and Double-A levels while racking up 10.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.

For good reason, the Nationals were widely lauded for their acquisition. I characterized the deal as a value-laden, well-timed strike. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs said the Nats had paid “a shockingly low price, considering that Fister is one of the game’s most underrated pitchers.” While anything but flashy, the tall right-hander had a nice track record of high-quality rotation work — over 800 frames of 3.53 ERA ball — and came with two seasons of remaining arbitration control. The thievery metaphor was popular, beginning with the title of Cameron’s post. Plenty of people termed the swap a “steal,” especially after Fister turned in an outstanding 2014 campaign.

There’s no discounting Fister’s excellence in his first year in D.C. Though he missed some action, he still managed to spin 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball. But as it turned out, that would be the last truly productive campaign of his career. Fister struggled with a lat injury at the start of the ensuing campaign and never really got going. He did manage a useful 4.19 ERA in 103 frames in 2015, so it was hardly a minimal contribution, but the peripherals didn’t support the results and the output didn’t account for his final arbitration salary of $11.4MM. Any thoughts of recouping draft compensation by issuing a qualifying offer went right out the window.

On the other side of the swap … well, the Tigers didn’t quite get what they hoped for either, but they only had their own ensuing actions to blame. After watching Ray struggle in a brief 2014 debut, Detroit ended up sending him out in a memorable three-team trade that really didn’t work out for the Motown side. That deal, which also cost the Tigers a decent infield prospect in Domingo Leyba, returned righty Shane Greene. While he had his moments in Detroit, they came after he transitioned to a relief role. Greene was swapped out last summer. The arrangement would have gone better had the Tigers simply taken shortstop Didi Gregorius, who ended up with the Yankees.

By that point, Ray was ready for a full test at the MLB level. He turned in a very strong debut in 2015. And while the results have taken a bit of a rollercoaster ride since, he has produced huge strikeout numbers and generally fared well in the eyes of advanced metrics. Ray has contributed 762 innings of 3.96 ERA ball in Arizona while racking up 11.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. The long ball has been an issue, but it hasn’t stopped him from compiling 10 rWAR and a dozen fWAR — well over twice what Fister ended up providing to the Nats (4.5 rWAR / 1.7 fWAR) — in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Revisiting Dave Stewart’s D-backs Trades

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Dave Stewart’s transition from agent to Diamondbacks general manager was both brief and frenetic. Not afraid to make moves that bucked industry trends, Stewart’s regime aggressively moved young talent for veterans, seemingly placed a lower value on draft picks than other clubs and made what proved to be a pair of high-profile missteps on the international market as they set out on a clear win-now path.

In 2016, the Diamondbacks marketed an “evolutionary” year for the franchise following an offseason that was headlined by their stunning signing of Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5MM deal. That 2016 campaign did prove to be a major turning point for the organization, although surely not in the manner the front office had hoped; Arizona finished out the year with a 69-93 record that led to a swift front office overhaul and the dismissal of manager Chip Hale.

Here’s a look back at the two years of hectic wheeling and dealing under the watch of Stewart, Tony La Russa and De Jon Watson…

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

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How would you grade Stewart’s swaps as general manager in Arizona? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories?

We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Reds GM Dick Williams and Orioles GM Mike Elias.

Mark Reynolds Announces Retirement

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Veteran slugger Mark Reynolds, who enjoyed a 13-year big league career split between the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Orioles, Indians, Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees and Brewers, announced in an appearance on Mad Dog Sports Radio on SiriusXM that he’s officially retired (Twitter link, with audio).

Mark Reynolds | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

“I’ve moved beyond that,” Reynolds said when asked if he planned to seek another contract once MLB’s transaction freeze has been lifted. “I’ve retired. … I’m really enjoying time with my family, and it’s time for me to move on and find something else to do.”

The 36-year-old Reynolds spent the majority of the 2019 season in the Rockies organization, serving as a part-time first baseman and a bench bat until he was cut loose on July 28. He’d enjoyed a quality season with the Nationals a year prior in 2018, but Reynolds struggled to the lowest offensive numbers of his career with the Rox last year.

Originally a 16th-round pick of the Diamondbacks out of the University of Virginia back in 2004, Reynolds made his big league debut less than three years after being drafted. Reynolds was never considered one of the organization’s premier prospects — his No. 7 ranking on Baseball America’s list of D-backs prospects prior to the ’07 campaign was the only time he broke their top 30 — Reynolds hit the ground running. He was promoted to the big leagues in mid-May and closed out the remainder of the season as a regular in the lineup, hitting .279/.349/.495 with 17 home runs.

By 2008, Reynolds was Arizona’s everyday third baseman. His power was unquestionable, although the same could be said of his questionable contact skills. Reynolds became one of the game’s quintessential boom-or-bust players, regularly headlining home run and strikeout leaderboards alike. From 2008-11, he averaged 35 big flies per season  but also led his league in strikeouts each year along the way. At that time, a player who was punching out in roughly a third of his plate appearances was an alarming anomaly; the league average strikeout rate back in Reynolds’ first full year was 17.5 percent — a full six percent lower than 2019’s mark.

Reynolds had a rough year in 2010, prompting the D-backs to trade him to the Orioles in return for reliever David Hernandez and prospect Kam Mickolio. He bounced back with the Birds and helped them to the postseason in 2012, but Baltimore declined an $11MM club option over Reynolds’ final arbitration year that offseason and non-tendered him, making him a free agent for the first time in his career.

Reynolds would bounce from Cleveland to New York to Milwaukee to St. Louis to Colorado to D.C. and back to Colorado on a series of one-year and minor league deals from that point forth. He delivered some productive seasons along the way and even popped 30 homers for the 2017 Rockies before giving the Nationals an absurd 5-for-5, two-homer, 10-RBI day in 2018 (video link).

Reynolds will conclude his playing career with a .236/.328/.453 batting line over the life of 6243 plate appearances and 1688 Major League games. In that time, he belted 298 home runs, 253 doubles, 14 triples and stole 64 bases while also scoring 794 times and knocking in 871 runs. The slugger took home nearly $30MM in career earnings while providing a litany of tape-measure home runs on which we can all fondly look back. Best wishes to Reynolds and his family in whatever lies ahead.

These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020

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No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…

Opt-Outs

Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.

One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.

Mutual Options

For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.

Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The D-Backs spent significant sums in free agency for the first time since GM Mike Hazen came aboard and pulled off an interesting trade for a key veteran. But is it enough to mount a real challenge to the dominant division force?

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Hazen has rightly drawn plaudits — including from us at MLBTR! — for his work since coming aboard in 2016. The organization has managed to stay competitive and build up an increasingly deep and well-regarded farm system.

It’s tough to do both of those things at the same time. Entering the winter, it was hardly clear exactly what direction the Arizona organization would take — if it would move one way or the other at all. There’s a danger of stasis and bland mediocrity in the middle as well.

From the outset, there was talk of the D-Backs trading Robbie Ray. Having already sent out a number of other shorter-term veterans in recent years — most prominently, Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke — it seemed possible or even likely that the club would again look to increase its long-term talent pool while back-filling with younger MLB talent. That has worked out exceedingly well in both of the above cases. Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly came over in the Goldy swap. The Snakes snagged Zac Gallen in a separate deal even as they moved Greinke for some MLB-ready talent (including Corbin Martin and Josh Rojas).

It’s important to remember just how little Hazen had done in free agency. Before this offseason, he had never inked an open-market deal worth even $10MM — though he had done a few such extensions. As it turned out, the Diamondbacks moved in a decidedly win-now direction, though they did so in a far less splashy manner than when they acquired Greinke and Shelby Miller in that memorable winter under the prior regime.

With an ever-flexible, opportunistic approach to roster-building, Hazen may well have set his course when he learned of a fairly unique opportunity. Madison Bumgarner, a legitimate franchise legend of the division-rival Giants, had keen interest in playing for Arizona. The club sorted out a back-loaded contract that could make MadBum a D-Back for the rest of his career. It’s not a zero-risk proposition, and he probably isn’t going to return to his prior levels of dominance, but it was a nice price for a veteran performer who’s a clear rotation upgrade.

Madison Bumgarner | Rob Schumacher/Arizona Republic

It was settled: Ray would stay, pairing with Bumgarner as a veteran 1-2 southpaw punch. The rotation was set with the steady Mike Leake and aforementioned Weaver and Gallen, with swingman Merrill Kelly ready to step in where needed. There was already a series of quality upper-level arms available — Jon Duplantier, Alex Young, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener — which left the team without need of Taijuan Walker. Rather than taking a roll of the dice on Walker, the D-Backs non-tendered him.

The Snakes also non-tendered outfielder Steven Souza, who joined Walker as a disappointing prior trade acquisition. That left the team with another outfield slot to be filled — to go with the potential opening in center field that would allow emergent star Ketel Marte to move back into the infield, as the club preferred.

There were loads of possibilities for adding the requisite outfield pieces. The D-Backs ultimately grabbed two veterans, both on reasonable salaries — one via free agency and the other via trade. Kole Calhoun forms a lefty-lefty corner duo with David Peralta, who also inked an affordable three-year extension. Calhoun isn’t likely to be a star-level performer, but he’s sure to be a grinder and fills a need at a palatable rate of pay.

Of greater interest: the D-Backs cashed in two of their far-off farmhands to land talented center fielder Starling Marte. He’ll cost the team $11.5MM this year and $12.5MM next, less the $1.5MM the Bucs chipped in. As I wrote in previewing the offseason for this club, “there’s an argument to be made that [Marte] fits in just the right space (two years of affordable but not cheap control) for the D-Backs.” That’s obviously how the team saw it.

(Starling) Marte should offer a nice blend of floor and upside for the Snakes, who could still pivot and deal him if circumstances warrant. It’s much the same approach Hazen has taken time and again when he sees solid value in quality, established players. The team has now done so several times in the extension context — first with infielder Eduardo Escobar, this winter with Peralta and shortstop Nick Ahmed.

Now that (Ketel) Marte is back in the infield, the club has extended players occupying the 4-5-6 positions. Christian Walker and Jake Lamb will handle first base (with the latter also appearing at the hot corner), rounding out the chief needs. There are a variety of reserve and depth options already on the 40-man roster, including utility infielder Ildemaro Vargas, first baseman Kevin Cron, and second/third base candidate in Rojas.

Behind the dish, the Snakes will hope that Carson Kelly can keep things moving in a positive direction. They replaced Alex Avila with another left-handed-hitting bat-first receiver in Stephen Vogt.

As with the addition of Vogt, the D-Backs decided on some modest veteran spending to bolster the relief unit. Junior Guerra and Hector Rondon will each occupy setup slots in front of returning closer Archie Bradley. It’s tough to project this unit as a marked strength, but the Arizona org will be aided by its collection of 40-man pitching depth (which includes some of the aforementioned players and a host of others with no or little MLB experience).

2020 Season Outlook

This is a strong overall roster that doesn’t really have holes … but still doesn’t seem near the overall talent level of the Dodgers. Even if the double-Marte combination stars and all of the solid veterans play well, it’s going to be awfully tough to prevent the L.A. behemoth from an eighth-straight NL West crown.

Still, the Diamondbacks are good enough that they could yet surprise if the Dodgers falter — especially in a short-season format. And a Wild Card spot is firmly in play. The club obviously feels it has set itself up for continued competitiveness in the near-term without sacrificing its long-term ability to contend — either by mortgaging the farm or bogging down the payroll. That’s the general approach that most mid-market teams have tried to find, but the current Diamondbacks regime is looking particularly adept at striking that balance.

How would you grade the club’s offseason efforts? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Three Diamondbacks Minority Owners Sue Managing General Partner

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A trio of Diamondbacks minority owners have filed a lawsuit against the franchise’s managing general partner Ken Kendrick, according to a report from Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. The plaintiffs allege that Kendrick illegally forced them to either increase their stake in the Diamondbacks or have their shares bought out by the team. Kendrick argues that he and the team were within their rights to issue such an ultimatum.

The dispute stems from a letter in which Kendrick instructed minority owners with stakes of less than one percent to either increase their share to at least that threshold or to sell their shares back to the team at a price determined by a third-party appraiser. That decision was motivated by the Diamondbacks’ desire to “streamline its ownership group” and decrease the number of owners with minimal stakes in the franchise.

That initiative was backed by MLB, which “prefers” that teams maintain smaller ownership groups to facilitate more efficient governance. However, the suing owners argue that since the idea originated with the Diamondbacks and was brought to MLB for approval, the minority owners maintain their status as eligible holders.

For what it’s worth, Buchanan went on to say via Twitter that the lawsuit is in no way related to the team’s ballpark concerns, which have prompted rumors about relocation. Since the three stakeholders involved in the lawsuit all own less than one percent of the team, Buchanan says, “they have no governing power over it,” and therefore the franchise could relocate with them on board. Kendrick and team president and CEO Derrick Hall spoke in February about the team’s stadium situation, hinting at a persisting hope to construct a new ballpark (be it in Arizona or elsewhere). The team’s stadium lease with Maricopa County would allow the D-Backs to leave Chase Field as early as 2022.

It’ll be a story worth following as the suit progresses, and we’ll be sure to provide updates for you as they come.

NL West Notes: Martin, Giants, Ubaldo

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Right-hander Corbin Martin, one of four players the Astros sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke blockbuster, had been on the Diamondbacks’ radar for awhile, writes Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription required). They’d first targeted him in the 2017 draft and again in trade talks with the ’Stros centered around Paul Goldschmidt — but Houston wasn’t keen on including him in such a deal. At the time, Martin was 22 and fresh off 122 innings of 2.51 ERA ball between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, while Goldschmidt only had a year of control left.

Martin made his MLB debut in 2019 but underwent Tommy John surgery in July and was suddenly on the shelf for a win-now Astros club. Thus, D-backs GM Mike Hazen inquired again, and the Astros were more willing to listen the second time around. A package of Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer and Josh Rojas (plus plenty of cash to help offset Greinke’s salary) got the job done. Martin may not be an option for the Snakes until 2021, but he’s a second-rounder with a career 2.58 ERA in the minors who has ranked on Top 100 lists in both of the past two offseasons, making him an intriguing piece down the road. D-backs and Astros fans alike will want to check out the piece for thoughts from Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye on the club’s longstanding interest in Martin.

Some more out of the NL West…

  • The Giants’ release of veteran lefty Jerry Blevins only increased the odds of southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Wandy Peralta making the club, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Both pitchers hurled five shutout innings when exhibition games were still being played — Garcia with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio and Peralta with a 10-to-4 mark. Given that Garcia is out of minor league options, he’d appear a particularly likely candidate to secure a spot in the ’pen, although there’s certainly room for both. The Giants claimed both lefties off waivers, with Peralta coming over from the Reds in September and Garcia coming over from the Marlins over the winter. Each has had some success in the Majors and is controllable all the way through the 2023 season should things pan out in the Bay Area.
  • Baseball’s shutdown put Ubaldo Jimenez’s comeback attempt with the Rockies on hold, but the right-hander is open to pitching in the minors if play is able to resume, writes Nick Groke of The Athletic in an excellent column on Jimenez’s unexpected bid to revive his career (subscription required). As Groke details, Jimenez received a “fringy” Major League offer in the 2017-18 offseason but opted to stay home in the Dominican with his pregnant wife and soon-to-be-born child. This offseason, wanting to take one last shot, he called Rockies VP of international scouting Rolando Fernandez about using the team’s complex in the Dominican to refine his mechanics. That eventually turned into a solid Dominican Winter League stint, a minor league deal with the Rox and several weeks serving playing the role of wise old sage to younger Rockies pitchers like German Marquez. Manager Bud Black tells Groke that Jimenez was sitting around 91 mph with his heater early in camp. A comeback at age 36 is a long shot but would make for one heck of an in-season storyline to root for.
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