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Looking For A Match In A Devin Williams Trade

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Although he’s coming off an injury-shortened 2024 season, there is little doubt that Devin Williams remains an elite closer. Upon his mid-season return from a back injury, Williams looked every bit as dominant as he did in his All-Star 2022 and ‘23 campaigns. Over 21 1/3 innings, the righty pitched to a 1.25 ERA and 2.31 SIERA, striking out 38 of the 88 batters he faced. As he enters his age-30 season, his career 1.83 ERA, 39.4% strikeout rate, and 68 saves in 78 chances tell you everything you need to know about why he could be such a valuable trade chip for the Brewers this offseason.

In October, Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters that he had to be “open-minded” about potentially trading Williams. He made similar comments in November, saying, “Certainly we have to be open to those types of things, but I think he makes our team better” (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). Those words suggest Arnold isn’t actively shopping his closer, but his reluctance to shut down the idea speaks volumes. After all, Milwaukee has earned a reputation for trading star pitchers at least one year before they reach free agency. Back when Arnold worked under former president of baseball operations David Stearns, they dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline. More recently, Arnold oversaw the swap that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Thanks to an excellent pitching development pipeline, the team has managed to stay competitive despite these trades. Thus, it would hardly be surprising if Williams is wearing a different uniform come Opening Day 2025.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked the Top 35 Trade Candidates of the offseason, he put Williams at no. 4, behind only White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, and Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. The fact that Williams ranked behind Helseley was partially because the latter seemed more likely to be dealt. However, recent reports suggest the Cardinals are unlikely to trade Helsley this winter after all. That should only invigorate the market for a pitcher like Williams. If Helsley is staying put, Williams is undeniably the top reliever on the trade market. 

What’s more, former Yankees closer Clay Holmes is off the free agent market after signing with the Mets to become a starting pitcher. Holmes was MLBTR’s third-highest-ranked free agent reliever this offseason. Meanwhile, MLBTR’s second-highest-ranked free agent reliever, Jeff Hoffman, has also drawn interest as a potential starter. In other words, the market for top-end, right-handed relievers is already starting to thin out.

Thus, if the Brewers trade Williams, they should be able to land a strong return commensurate with his value. At the same time, he won’t bring back quite as much young talent as Burnes (a former Cy Young winner) or Hader (who had an extra half-season of team control), so just about every interested party should have the necessary trade chips to make a compelling offer. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a return for Williams would “ideally” include a young starter, though if the Brewers are really keeping an open mind, they might be open to various return packages.

Let’s take a closer look at which teams could trade for Williams this winter:

Clear Fits

Blue Jays: From 2021-23, the Blue Jays had one of the better closers in baseball: homegrown Canadian righty Jordan Romano. However, things quickly tumbled downhill for Romano in 2024, and the rest of Toronto’s relief corps followed suit. No AL bullpen had a worse ERA, a higher home run rate, or a lower strikeout rate. The Jays are thought to be interested in re-signing Romano, but that shouldn’t preclude them from looking for a more reliable closer. Indeed, they were reportedly considering signing Holmes (as a reliever) before he ultimately landed with the Mets. Adding Williams would go a long way to help revamp one of the worst bullpens in the league.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have a strong group of arms at the back end of their bullpen, but none with significant closing experience. Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Ryan Thompson are all coming off strong seasons. Still, GM Mike Hazen said earlier this offseason that he’d prefer to have another back-end arm to help them out, suggesting his team was at its best when capital-C closer Paul Sewald was the ninth inning guy. Hazen could be dealing with some financial constraints this winter as he tries to replace Sewald, Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and more without significantly increasing payroll. So, adding Williams, whose projected $7.7MM salary is well below open market value, could be a particularly appealing move.

Phillies: The Phillies bullpen lost two high-leverage right-handers to free agency this offseason: Hoffman and Carlos Estévez. POBO Dave Dombrowski has made it clear he’s looking to add at least one righty arm to the back end of the bullpen to replace the talent he lost. That could mean bringing back Hoffman (the Phillies have reportedly shown interest in such a reunion) or targeting another free agent like Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, or Blake Treinen. After all, this team has largely preferred to flex its financial muscle rather than part with prospects to acquire star talent. However, Dombrowski has repeatedly suggested he will look to get more creative this winter. Could the Phillies and Brewers line up on a swap involving Williams and fellow trade candidate Alec Bohm?

Rangers: The Rangers arm barn is in a rough spot right now. After finishing among the AL’s bottom five bullpens in most statistical categories in 2024, Texas lost Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña to free agency. POBO Chris Young should have some money to spend this winter, but as he aims to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold, he won’t be able to throw out numerous big-money contracts as he’s done in the past. That could make an arbitration-eligible arm like Williams quite appealing. 

Royals: Lucas Erceg stepped up for the Royals after the trade deadline, putting up a 2.88 ERA over 25 innings and blossoming into the closer his new team desperately needed. Yet, Erceg’s success doesn’t mean the Royals can’t look for an upgrade at the back of the bullpen. As dominant as he looked down the stretch in 2024, he’s hardly the most experienced or reliable arm. He’ll enter his age-30 season with just 116 2/3 MLB innings under his belt and a career 4.01 ERA and 3.52 SIERA. As the Royals look to compete for the AL Central title in 2025, a bona fide closer like Williams would make for a terrific addition to the squad.

Tigers: The Tigers have a few options to close in 2025, most notably Tyler Holton, who has quietly been one of the best relievers in the game over the past two seasons. Still, no one has a lock on the closer role in Detroit, and the right-handed Williams would make an excellent complement to the southpaw Holton. Now that the Tigers are officially contenders, a proven closer like Williams is the kind of luxury they can afford as they strive to go on a deeper postseason run in 2025.

Yankees: Luke Weaver certainly earned the right to slot into the closer role for the Yankees at the end of the 2024 season and into the playoffs. At the same time, he doesn’t have a ton of late-inning relief experience, and New York might prefer to use him in a variable, multi-inning role. The Yankees made a huge splash on the trade market when they acquired Juan Soto last offseason, and they could do so again by scooping up Williams. After losing in the World Series, the Bronx Bombers are surely going to be hungry for talent — especially if they can’t re-sign Soto.

More Potential Fits

Dodgers: These days, it seems like you just can’t rule the Dodgers out on anyone. Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech both have what it takes to close for the reigning World Series champions, but neither is without his question marks. Phillips missed the World Series with a shoulder injury, while Kopech’s success in L.A. came in a pretty small sample size. With so few holes to fill on their roster, could the Dodgers look to add a superstar closer to make their super team even more super?

Giants: Following his breakout performance in 2024, Ryan Walker has the inside track on the Giants’ closer job in 2025. That said, he’s hardly a lock for the gig. New POBO Buster Posey is looking to build a legitimate postseason contender this offseason, and a closer like Williams would give the Giants more security at the end of ballgames.

Padres: After trading for Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at last summer’s trade deadline, the Padres stuck with Robert Suarez in the closer role. That’s a pretty clear indication of how much this team values Suarez, who pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 3.53 SIERA while recording 36 saves in 42 chances in 2024. That makes a trade for Williams, who would almost surely usurp Suarez as the closer, seem unlikely. Then again, Padres POBO A. J. Preller loves to pull off blockbuster swaps, and he’ll be looking for some way to replace Scott’s excellent production out of the bullpen. 

Division Rivals

The Cubs, Pirates, and Reds could all use a reliable closer. Porter Hodge was terrific for Chicago in his rookie season, but a team with legitimate postseason aspirations needs a more proven arm to anchor the bullpen. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (Alexis Díaz) and Pittsburgh (David Bednar) both have more experienced closers, but neither pitcher had a strong 2024 campaign. There is no doubt that Williams would make all three of these teams significantly more competitive in 2025.

However, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Brewers sending Williams to a division rival. After all, it’s not as if they’d be trading him as part of a rebuilding effort. The Brewers are the reigning NL Central champions, and they’re looking to retain that crown in 2025. That will be hard enough with Williams pitching anywhere else, let alone for one of their closest competitors.

Longer Shots

Williams is such a special talent that there aren’t many teams one can completely rule out of the trade sweepstakes. The Red Sox are likely out of the running after signing Aroldis Chapman, especially since they also have Liam Hendriks at the back of their bullpen. Similarly, the Orioles (Félix Bautista), Mets (Edwin Díaz), Astros (Hader), Braves (Raisel Iglesias), and Mariners (Andrés Muñoz) already have excellent pitchers entrenched in the closer role. Still, it’s not as if any of these contenders wouldn’t be able to make room for Williams. Figuring out how to split time between two star closers is the kind of problem any manager would love to have, and adding Williams would immediately turn any of these bullpens into one of the best in the league. 

Brewers Sign Jared Oliva, Jon Duplantier To Minor League Deals

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The Brewers are signing outfielder Jared Oliva and right-hander Jon Duplantier to minor league contracts, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Both players will get non-roster invitations to big league camp.

Oliva, who turns 29 tomorrow, got a brief big league look with the Pirates. The Arizona product appeared in 26 games for the Bucs between 2020-21. He hit .179/.220/.214 in that minimal sample. He spent the ’23 season in Triple-A with the Angels, struggling to a .261/.348/.423 slash in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Oliva dropped back a level this year, as he spent the season in Double-A after signing a minor league contract with the Mariners.

The righty-swinging Oliva posted good numbers in the Texas League. He turned in a robust .294/.378/.463 slash while going 37-40 in stolen base attempts. He’s quite a bit older than the average Double-A player, but he showed enough to earn a camp invite from Milwaukee. Oliva can play all three outfield positions and could open next season with Triple-A Nashville.

Duplantier has also been out of the majors for a few years. He earned some Top 100 fanfare during his prospect days in the Diamondbacks’ system. Duplantier has yet to find any major league success, however. The 6’4″ hurler owns a 6.70 earned run average across 49 2/3 big league innings. He last suited up at the MLB level in 2021.

The Rice product split the ’24 campaign between the Mets’ and Dodgers’ systems, along with four starts in the independent American Association. He started seven of 23 appearances in the upper minors, turning in a 4.20 ERA with a strong 27.4% strikeout rate but a massive 16.1% walk percentage over 55 2/3 innings.

Brewers, Thomas Pannone Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers agreed to a minor league deal with lefty Thomas Pannone, reports Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The BHSC client will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee to spring training in 2025.

It’ll be the second Brewers stint of Pannone’s career. He was also with the organization in 2023. While the 30-year-old’s broader track record in Triple-A doesn’t necessarily stand out, he’s been sharp against non-MLB competition in recent seasons. Pannone tossed 53 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with the Brewers’ Triple-A club in 2023, and he also spent parts of the 2022-23 seasons with the KBO’s Kia Tigers, pitching to a combined 3.49 ERA in 165 innings across those two seasons. Most recently, Pannone hurled 152 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball between the Triple-A affiliates for the Cubs and Yankees in 2024. He fanned 21.9% of opponents against a 5.9% walk rate this past season.

All of that should allow Pannone to head to camp with the Brewers and compete for a rotation spot or long relief role. He’s stretched out and built up, meaning workload wouldn’t be an issue if the Brewers need to utilize him as a starter between Nashville and Milwaukee. (Notably, he’s out of minor league options, so if he’s added to the 40-man at any point, he’d have to stick or else be placed on waivers.)

For a Brewers club that is currently light on rotation depth, adding a lefty who’s pitched well for the past three seasons in the upper minors and in the KBO makes good sense. At the moment, Milwaukee’s rotation likely includes Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff (likely on an innings limit after missing 2024 due to shoulder surgery), Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers and one of Aaron Ashby or DL Hall. That group could change, of course, depending on how the rest of the offseason plays out. Each of Myers, Ashby and Hall can be optioned. Civale has been a speculative trade candidate (as is the case with most Brewers veterans when they’re down to one final season of club control remaining). Lefty Robert Gasser could join the bunch late in 2025, but he’s recovering from UCL surgery performed in June.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/22/24

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The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Throughout the day, we’ll surely see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

  • The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
  • The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
  • The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
  • The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
  • The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
  • The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
  • The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
  • Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
  • The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
  • The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
  • The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
  • The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
  • The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
  • The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,

National League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Braves non-tendered outfielder Ramón Laureano, left-hander Ray Kerr, as well as right-handers Griffin Canning, Huascar Ynoa and Royber Salinas, which you can read more about here.
  • The Brewers parted ways with lefty reliever Hoby Milner, who’d been projected at $2.7MM for his final arbitration season. The typically reliable southpaw was tagged for a 4.73 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered right-hander Adam Kloffenstein, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Bluesky link). The righty only just made his major league debut in 2024 and was not yet arb-eligible. He immediately becomes a free agent without being exposed to waivers.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered infielder Nick Madrigal, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). Madrigal has hit .251/.304/.312 for a 76 wRC+ over the last three seasons with the Cubs and was projected for a $1.9MM salary next year. Chicago also announced they non-tendered outfielder Mike Tauchman, which comes as a bit of a surprise after he reached base at a .357 clip this year. Patrick Wisdom, Adbert Alzolay, Brennen Davis and Trey Wingenter — all of whom were designated for assignment earlier this week — were also dropped.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered lefty reliever Brandon Hughes, per a club announcement. The 28-year-old southpaw allowed 16 runs over 17 2/3 big league innings this year. He wasn’t eligible for arbitration but would’ve occupied a 40-man roster spot if offered a contract.
  • The Dodgers are non-tendering right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. and left-hander Zach Logue, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link). Both pitchers are still in their pre-arbitration years, so this was more about the Dodgers sending them to free agency without exposing them to waivers, as opposed to cost cutting. Perhaps the club will look to re-sign them on minor league deals.
  • The Giants only made two non-tenders, parting with lefty Ethan Small and righty Kai-Wei Teng. Teng had been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Small, who was in his pre-arbitration years, spent the season in the minors or on the injured list.
  • The Marlins had zero non-tenders. They offered contracts to everyone on the 40-man roster.
  • The Mets dropped a trio of players from the 40-man roster: relievers Grant Hartwig and Alex Young and outfield prospect Alex Ramirez. Young was the only member of that group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The southpaw pitched well in a depth role, but the Mets didn’t want to keep him around at a $1.4MM projection. Hartwig made four appearances this year, while the 21-year-old Ramirez (a former top prospect) had a .210/.291/.299 showing in Double-A.
  • The Nationals announced that they have non-tendered right-hander Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey, which you can read more about here.
  • The Padres dropped four players from the roster: righties Luis Patino and Logan Gillaspie, outfielder Bryce Johnson and infielder Mason McCoy. Patino, who underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, was the only member of the group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The other three cuts are simply about roster maintenance. The Padres could try to bring anyone from that group back on minor league deals.
  • The Phillies will not be tendering a contract to outfielder Austin Hays, which MLBTR covered earlier today.
  • The Pirates are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe and outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com (Bluesky link). They are also non-tendering right-hander Hunter Stratton, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). Joe was projected for a salary of $3.2MM next year and De La Cruz $4MM. Stratton had not yet qualified for arbitration. Joe has been around league average at the plate in his career but doing more damage against lefties. De La Cruz has hit .253/.297/.407 in his career for a wRC+ of 90. Startton had a 3.58 ERA this year but his season was ended by knee surgery, giving him an uncertain path forward.
  • The Reds have non-tendered right-hander Ian Gibaut, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Bluesky link). The righty was projected for a salary of $800K. He spent the vast majority of 2024 on the injured list due to arm trouble and only made two appearances on the season.
  • The Rockies moved on from starter Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers, which MLBTR covered here.

Stephen Vogt, Pat Murphy Win Manager Of The Year

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Guardians’ skipper Stephen Vogt and Brewers’ manager Pat Murphy were named the respective leagues’ Managers of the Year.

Both men took the award after leading their teams to Central division titles in year one. Vogt took the reins for the Guardians within a year and a half of retiring as a player. He spent one season on Seattle’s staff as bullpen coach before Cleveland tabbed him to replace future Hall of Famer Terry Francona. Vogt took over a team that had a much weaker rotation than the Guardians customarily sport, especially after Shane Bieber went down two starts into the season.

Expectations outside the organization generally weren’t very high. Cleveland nevertheless ran away with the AL Central. They built a lead as big as nine games by the end of June and didn’t look back. The Guardians cruised to a 92-win season, taking 16 more games than they had in 2023. They outscored opponents by 87 runs, largely on the strength of an elite bullpen. Vogt’s relief group easily led the majors with a 2.57 earned run average. The Guardians nabbed the #2 seed in the American League to secure a first-round bye.

Awards voting occurs before the start of the postseason, so the playoffs weren’t a factor in these honors. Cleveland held serve by defeating the upstart Tigers in the Division Series. They dropped a five-game set to the top-seeded Yankees in the Championship Series. While it didn’t end as hoped, it was a much more successful season than most people envisioned.

Vogt rather handily won the support of voters. He nabbed 27 of the 30 first-place selections. Kansas City’s Matt Quatraro and Detroit’s A.J. Hinch were the only others to receive a first-place vote in the America League. Quatraro and Hinch finished second and third, respectively. Joe Espada, Aaron Boone, Mark Kotsay, Rocco Baldelli and Alex Cora all appeared on at least one ballot.

The story was much the same in the National League. Murphy was in his first year at the helm. Like Vogt, he took over for one of the sport’s most respected managers. Craig Counsell departed to sign with the Cubs, leaving Murphy in charge of a dugout for the first time since an interim stint with the Padres in 2015. As with Cleveland, Milwaukee’s formerly vaunted rotation had been thinned by injury and trades.

The Brewers got success out of unheralded starters Tobias Myers and Colin Rea. Their bullpen was arguably the best in the National League. Despite losing Devin Williams for the first half of the season, Milwaukee relievers led the NL with a 3.11 ERA that trailed only Cleveland’s mark overall. The Brewers outscored opponents by 136 runs to post a 93-69 record. They essentially replicated their results from Counsell’s final season and grabbed their third NL Central title in four years.

Milwaukee’s year ended with a bitter defeat. Williams’ blown save against the Mets in the Wild Card round left them with a first-round exit for the second straight year. That’s not a factor in the voting, of course, and it’s not as if anyone would fault Murphy for turning to his star closer in that situation anyhow.

 

Murphy rather remarkably becomes the first Brewers’ manager to win the award. Counsell has surprisingly never won that honor. As with Vogt, Murphy took 27 of 30 first-place spots. San Diego’s Mike Shildt, New York’s Carlos Mendoza and Philadelphia’s Rob Thomson each picked up one first-place nod. Shildt and Mendoza placed second and third, respectively. Torey Lovullo landed in fourth overall, while Thomson rounded out the top five. Brian Snitker, Dave Roberts and Oli Marmol also received votes.

Full voter breakdowns courtesy of the BBWAA.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

White Sox To Hire Walker McKinven As Bench Coach

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White Sox manager Will Venable revealed during an appearance on Foul Territory today that the club will be hiring Walker McKinven as their new bench coach, per James Fegan of Sox Machine on X.

McKinven has been working with the Brewers for many years, with various titles over his time with that club. He had worked in scouting and coaching roles, with his most recent title being run prevention coordinator.

Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X, McKinven was involved in daily game planning and was also involved in the club’s catcher development. The Brewers have a reputation for maximizing catcher defense, with the most recent example being William Contreras. He was considered a poor defender with Atlanta, posting -11 Defensive Runs Saved before being traded to Milwaukee. In the two years since, he has been worth +11 DRS.

The White Sox are totally remaking their organization at the moment. They just set a modern-day record by losing 121 games in 2024 and cleaned house as that season was playing out. Back in August, they fired manager Pedro Grifol and three coaches, including bench coach Charlie Montoyo. For the final few weeks of the season, Grady Sizemore took over as interim manager while Doug Sisson covered the bench coach job.

Venable was recently tapped to be the club’s new skipper and has poached McKinven from the Brewers to fill the bench coach role as the Sox look to emerge from their disastrous season and post better results going forward.

Brewers Add Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick To 40-Man Roster

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The Brewers added right-handers Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick to their 40-man roster in advance of today’s Rule 5 deadline, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports (X link).  Since Milwaukee has two more open spaces on the 40-man, McCalvy writes that more players could still be protected prior to 5pm CT.

Henderson was a fourth-round pick for the Brewers in the 2021 draft, though an elbow surgery kept him from making his pro debut until over a year after his draft date.  After pitching only 13 2/3 innings in 2022, Henderson tossed 78 2/3 frames at A-ball in 2023, then 81 1/3 innings across four different minor league levels this past season.  The overall numbers (3.32 ERA, 32.8% strikeout rate, 4.73% walk rate) were very impressive, though Henderson had a 4.56 ERA in 23 2/3 Triple-A innings and ran into some home run trouble.

Henderson’s signature pitch is a plus changeup that is so effective that it allows him to get away with a fastball that has movement but sits in the 88-92mph range.  This two-pitch arsenal could mean that Henderson will ultimately end up as a reliever, though obviously the Brewers will first give him plenty of looks to see if he can further develop as a starting pitcher.  Since the 22-year-old Henderson has already cracked the Triple-A level and could be close to his Major League debut, it stands to reason that he might’ve gotten a lot of attention from teams in the Rule 5 Draft.

MLB Pipeline ranks Henderson 11th among all Milwaukee prospects, while Baseball America ranks him 21st.  Patrick isn’t on either outlet’s top-30 list, though considering his solid amount (158 innings) of Triple-A experience, he also likely would’ve been on rival teams’ R5 radars.

Patrick was also a fourth-round pick in 2021, as the Diamondbacks took the right-hander nine spots before the Brewers selected Henderson.  Arizona dealt Patrick to the Athletics for Jace Peterson at the 2023 trade deadline, and the A’s then flipped Patrick to the Brewers almost exactly one year ago in the trade that sent Abraham Toro to Oakland.

After struggling badly in 2023, Patrick found his footing in his new organization, posting a 2.90 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate across 136 1/3 innings with Triple-A Nashville.  While a .267 BABIP and 79.2% strand rate helped Patrick’s cause, he started 24 of his 26 games and delivered quality bottom-line results, thus earning his first 40-man placement.  Since the Brewers frequently churn pitchers up and down from the minors, the 26-year-old Patrick also could get a look for his MLB debut next season.

Paul Skenes Wins National League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Full Year Of Service Time

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Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes has been voted the National League Rookie of the Year for 2024, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Outfielder Jackson Merrill of the Padres finished second while outfielder Jackson Chourio of the Brewers finished third. The Pirates will not earn a PPI bonus pick from this result but Skenes will earn himself a full year of service time despite his late call-up.

Skenes, now 22, has made a quick rise to being one of the top pitchers in the sport. As of a year and a half ago, he was still pitching for Louisiana State University. The Pirates selected him with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, with many viewing him as about as close to MLB-ready as a draft pick could be.

The Bucs let him get his feet wet as a professional, putting him into five minor league games late in 2023, but never letting him throw more than two innings in any of those. There was some speculation that he could crack the Opening Day roster in 2024 but the Pirates decided to build him up slowly. He was started in Triple-A but with his outings mostly kept around three or four innings.

Despite the kid gloves, Skenes proved it was time to break free, posting a 0.99 earned run average in those minor league outings. That got him promoted to the majors in May, less than a year after being drafted.

His relatively young age and lack of professional experience were easily overwhelmed by his incredible talent. Flashing a triple-digit fastball, a devastating “splinker” and several other pitches in his arsenal, Skenes went on to toss 133 innings over 23 big league starts. In that time, he had a 1.96 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 51.3% ground ball rate. He produced 4.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, placing him tenth among all pitchers in the majors this year, despite tossing fewer innings than everyone ahead of him.

The timing of his call-up and this victory are both noteworthy. The collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players features measures designed to encourage top prospects being promoted, the prospect promotion incentive, and also to disincentivize service time manipulation. If a player is on certain top 100 prospect lists and is promoted early enough in the season to earn a full service year, that player can earn his club a bonus draft pick depending on awards voting. On the flip side, if such a player is not promoted early enough to get a full year but managed to finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting regardless, that player earns himself a full year of service retroactively.

Had Skenes been promoted earlier in the year, this award would have netted the Bucs an extra draft pick. But since he was held down into May, they were not eligible to receive that pick. Skenes, on the other hand, will now have a full year of service time. That is significant for him as he is now slated to reach free agency after the 2029 season, his age-27 campaign. Under previous collective bargaining agreements, his free agency would have been one year further into the future.

Merrill was eligible to net the Padres a PPI bonus pick and likely would have done so in any other year. He just had the misfortune of competing against Skenes in the voting. Per the BBWAA, each of the 30 votes had Skenes and Merrill in the top two, 23 of them putting Skenes first and seven of them going for Merrill.

The fact that it was even close indicates how impressive Merrill was this year. A shortstop prospect with no Triple-A experience, Merrill moved to center field just this year to help the Padres fill a vacancy at that spot and hit the ground running. He got into 156 games for the Friars, hitting 24 home runs, stealing 16 bases, slashing .292/.326/.500 and getting strong grades for his glovework.

There was a case that Merrill deserved the award more than Skenes since his performance was over a full season, and clearly a handful of voters did lean that way, but ultimately not enough to get Merrill over the line. Despite the incredibly impressive performance, he comes up just shy of getting the trophy while the Padres come up just shy of getting a bonus draft pick.

The third place votes were split between just two players, as Chourio got 26 of them and Shota Imanaga of the Cubs got the other four. Chourio hit 21 home runs and stole 22 bases, slashing .275/.327/.464 while providing solid outfield defense. Imanaga tossed 173 1/3 innings over 29 starts for the Cubs with a 2.91 ERA. In many other years, those two players could have won the award, but they were instead relegated to nabbing a few third-place votes due to the stunning seasons of Skenes and Merrill. Players like Masyn Winn and Joey Ortiz also had excellent seasons but couldn’t even get any votes due to how strong the competition was in the National League this year.

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