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2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Opening Day is three weeks away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2021-22 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2021 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2021-22 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st.  With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.

1.  Francisco Lindor.  The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago.  Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer.  The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.  These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season.  A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.

Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five.  But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position.  As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position.  At least half of them are star-caliber.

Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch.  Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets.  Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension.  Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.”  By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28.  Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.

2.  Corey Seager.  Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good.  Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season.  Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year.  His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards.  Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.

Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure.  It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract.  For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change.  The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022.  Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.

3.  Trevor Bauer.  Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers?  He’s built the option into his contract.  If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031.  So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021.  He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.

The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much.  Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.

4.  Trevor Story.  Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops.  Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give.  And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa.  Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.

Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road.  It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors.  But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team.  Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.

Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race.  As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor.  He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

5.  Carlos Correa.  Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017.  There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player.  But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.

For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter.  He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury.  He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason.  So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was.  His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.

Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor.  Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial.  The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension.  Correa is represented by WME Baseball.

6.  Nolan Arenado.  Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency.  It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal.  To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign.  He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season.  Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year.  Arenado is represented by Wasserman.

7.  Freddie Freeman.  Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award.  He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that.  Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old.  Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term.  The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long.  Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.

8.  Kris Bryant.  It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019.  At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign.  His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.

It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup.  Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders.  He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season.  Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.

9.  Michael Conforto.  Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20.  Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner.  It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract.  Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.

Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year.  So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer.  As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins.  Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

10.  Clayton Kershaw.  Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old.  As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.

If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished.  But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long.  Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact.  Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Honorable mentions

At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list.  I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard.  Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Despite finishing under .500 during the regular season, the Astros made their fourth straight trip to the American League Championship Series in 2020. The Rays denied them a World Series berth, though, and the Astros have since lost one of their longtime stars to free agency.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Astros faced entering the offseason was whether they would be able to re-sign outfielder George Springer, a three-time All-Star who was hugely instrumental in the team’s recent success. The Astros made Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected, and it doesn’t seem they put forth much of an effort to retain him after that. In the end, Springer exited Houston for another AL team – Toronto – for a six-year, $150MM payday.

Springer wasn’t the only noteworthy Astros outfielder who hit the market, as Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick joined him in seeking new contracts. Reddick remains a free agent, but the Astros did keep Brantley on a two-year, $32MM pact after deciding against issuing him a qualifying offer. It’s a reasonable deal when considering what Brantley brings to the table at the plate, though it’s not unwarranted to be concerned about his age (34 in May) and ability to play left field on an everyday basis. Brantley spent a large portion of last season as the Astros’ designated hitter as Yordan Alvarez battled knee problems, but that role won’t be available much this year if Alvarez’s health holds up. Assuming Alvarez is the regular DH, that would leave Brantley and Kyle Tucker as Houston’s corner outfielders.

With Springer out the door, the Astros did show offseason interest in other outfielders – Andrew Benintendi via trade, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Yasiel Puig in free agency – but didn’t come away with any outside additions on guaranteed contracts. As a result, they’re primed to start the season with the mostly unproven duo of Myles Straw and Chas McCormick as their top two center fielders. Straw’s a speedster and an adept defender, though he has almost no power and is coming off a brutal 2020 as a hitter. McCormick, meanwhile, has never played in the majors, but he does rank as Baseball America’s No. 12 Astros prospect.

One of the reasons the Astros are in position to gamble on untested center fielders is the overall strength of their offense. Brantley, Alvarez and Tucker can flat-out hit. The same has typically been true of second baseman Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa, even though both players endured down years in 2020. Third baseman Alex Bregman also wasn’t quite himself last season, but he remains one of the premier players in the game at his position.

That group should lead an above-average attack this year, but the rest of Houston’s offense isn’t quite as imposing. The team brought back a former longtime Astro in Jason Castro to team with Martin Maldonado at catcher. While those two probably aren’t going to combine for great offensive production, they’re well-regarded defenders who should make life easier on the Astros’ pitching staff.

First baseman Yuli Gurriel had a career year in 2019 before his output plummeted a season ago, yet the Astros still gave him a new one-year, $7MM contract in September. Such contract extensions so close to a player’s free agency are surprising, and from Houston’s perspective, the Gurriel deal continues to look like somewhat of a curious move. However, in fairness to the Astros, this past winter’s crop of free-agent first basemen was rather weak, leading them to keep around a familiar face on an affordable contract.

On the pitching front, the Astros will have to go a second consecutive season without ace Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in the fall. But even without Verlander last year, the Astros’ rotation – which consisted primarily of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy – still held up well. Most of that group is back this year, but unfortunately, Houston may have to go without Valdez for most or all of the season. Valdez enjoyed a breakout 2020, though he’s now dealing with a broken ring finger that will shelve him for the foreseeable future.

The Astros’ starting depth took yet another hit with the loss of high-end prospect Forrest Whitley, who will undergo TJ surgery and won’t pitch this year. The club did, however, help cover its bases earlier this month when it signed accomplished right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who will slot in along with Greinke, McCullers, Javier and Urquidy to open the season. Odorizzi’s two-year, $23MM pact includes a $6.5MM player option for 2023, which the Astros included in an effort to lower their luxury-tax commitment this season.

In light of the Odorizzi acquisition, there’s little wiggle room under the $210MM threshold for the Astros, who Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects are between $208MM and $209MM right now. Because of that, veteran minor league pickups Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. – whose contracts include $2.25MM and $1.15MM MLB salaries, respectively – are less likely to earn roster spots with the club.

Cishek was one of a few relievers the Astros brought in after their bullpen notched mediocre numbers last season. They showed interest in some big fish in free agency (e.g., Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Alex Colome and Joakim Soria), ultimately coming away with former Dodger Pedro Baez and ex-Ray Ryne Stanek. Baez has always prevented runs at a good clip, though he was more expensive than expected (two years, $12.5MM) after an injury-shortened year in which his average fastball velocity and strikeouts dropped to career-low levels. The 33-year-old is currently on the COVID-19 list, so it’s unclear whether he will be ready for the start of the season.

General manager James Click took a low-risk chance on Stanek, whom he’s familiar with from their time with the Rays. Click was part of the front office that used a first-round pick on Stanek in 2013, and the flamethrowing righty had a solid two-year stretch with the Rays from 2018-19 before Tampa traded him to the Marlins in the latter of those years. Unfortunately for Stanek, the 2020 season couldn’t have gone much worse, as he yielded eight runs and walked eight batters in just 10 innings.

Stanek is one of several Astros who could reach free agency next offseason, but he’s at the lower end of the totem pole in comparison to Correa, Verlander, Greinke and McCullers. Verlander is hardly in prime position for an extension, and there hasn’t been much buzz about Greinke, but Correa and McCullers have made it known they’d prefer to stay in Houston. Click has interest in keeping the pair, but if no extensions are in place by Opening Day, negotiations (if any are taking place) could cease until the end of the season. Correa’s on track to be part of the elite class of free agents who could approach a $300MM-plus guarantee, so the Astros will have their hands full in trying to keep him from hitting the market. McCullers won’t be nearly that expensive, but he’s just 27 years old at the moment and could command a lucrative multiyear payday.

Regardless of whether the Astros reach extensions with any in-house talent before the season, and even in spite of Springer’s exit, their roster once again looks strong enough to contend in the AL West this year. The Athletics won the division last year, but their roster doesn’t appear to be as strong as it was then. The Angels have made some improvements, but their offseason didn’t feature any enormous splashes, and it’s easy to be skeptical of a franchise mired in a six-year playoff drought. The other teams in the West – the Mariners and Rangers – will have difficulty getting to the .500 mark.

How would you grade the Astros’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks went into the 2020 campaign aiming for a playoff spot, but they wound up going 25-35 and finishing last in the National League West. The D-backs nevertheless had a rather modest offseason and now look as if they’ll extend their playoff drought to four years in 2021.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

With last season on the verge of concluding, Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall suggested to reporters that the club was unlikely to make significant changes on the roster, in the dugout or in the front office. He also called it “far-fetched” that Arizona’s 2021 payroll would match the $124MM that it was projected to spend last year before the pandemic sliced 102 games off the schedule. Hall wasn’t kidding. The Diamondbacks made little in the way of notable moves over the winter, and they’re set to enter this season with a payroll of $98MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Right-handers Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard, two of the three major league free agents the Diamondbacks signed, will play important roles in their bullpen this season after signing low-cost one-year deals. It’s no surprise the Diamondbacks made improving the unit a priority, as it finished 18th in the league in ERA and 25th in K-BB percentage in 2020. Soria and Clippard – a Diamondback in 2016 – are up there in age (36), but they carry quality track records and didn’t show any clear signs of slowing down last season. They and holdover Stefan Crichton look like the top three relievers in a righty-heavy Arizona bullpen, while experienced minor league signings Ryan Buchter, Anthony Swarzak and Chris Devenski are among those vying for spots behind them.

Arizona’s bullpen did struggle in 2020, but its rotation was even worse. Even though the group logged an unappealing 5.04 ERA, the Diamondbacks didn’t make any outside pickups during the offseason.

They’re stuck with Madison Bumgarner, who bombed during the first season of his five-year, $85MM contract, and left to hope he’ll return to something resembling his San Francisco form in 2021. They’ll also need a rebound from Luke Weaver, who was outstanding in 2019 before forearm issues cut him down that season. The 27-year-old recorded a hideous 6.58 ERA in 2020, but that did come with a better SIERA (4.52) and career-high fastball velocity (94.1 mph). Caleb Smith walked almost eight batters per nine during a brief 14-inning season between Miami and Arizona, yet he’s slated to open the season in the D-backs’ rotation after coming over in the teams’ Starling Marte trade over the summer. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are also sure bets, and deservedly so in light of the production they offered in 2020. However, Kelly’s season ended in early September when he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which is never an easy procedure for a pitcher to overcome. Nevertheless, having exercised Kelly’s $4.25MM club option at the beginning of the offseason, the Diamondbacks seem confident he’ll bounce back.

The Diamondbacks’ offense didn’t fare much better than their pitching in 2020, as they finished 19th in runs and 26th in wRC+. Right fielder Kole Calhoun may have been their best hitter then, but he’ll miss the start of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Furthermore, before temporarily losing Calhoun, Arizona didn’t do much of anything to improve its offense. Lone free-agent newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera will provide versatility around the infield and give the Diamondbacks a switch-hitter who’s capable of roughly average offense, both of which are pluses, but he isn’t someone who’s going to move the needle much for the club.

To a large degree, the Diamondbacks are betting on rebound efforts and breakouts to lift their offense this year. Center fielder/second baseman Ketel Marte was an MVP-caliber player in 2019, but he was merely ordinary last season. Meanwhile, third baseman Eduardo Escobar and catcher Carson Kelly registered disastrous numbers after impressing in 2019. Calhoun, first baseman Christian Walker, shortstop Nick Ahmed and left fielder David Peralta each put up above-average production last year, though there’s no fearsome presence in that group. The lack of standout talent could leave room for some of the D-backs’ less experienced hitters (e.g., Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith) to establish themselves this season. Rojas has thrived this spring, albeit over a small sample of at-bats, and has a chance to start 2021 as the team’s No. 1 second baseman. Varsho and/or Smith could claim a roster spot with Calhoun on the shelf.

In looking at the Diamondbacks’ roster and division, there’s a strong case general manager Mike Hazen & Co. should have sold, not sit on the fence, during the offseason. PECOTA projects Arizona will win 79 games, which appears to be a reasonable figure and would place them a distant third in the NL West behind Los Angeles and San Diego – both of which are legitimate World Series contenders. Of course, if the Diamondbacks are out of contention as the trade deadline approaches, they could at least shop some of their veterans (Soria, Clippard, Kelly, Cabrera, Calhoun and Escobar, to name several) in an effort to further bolster a farm system that ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks 10th in the game.

How would you grade the D-backs’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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The Yankees used the winter to re-sign an American League MVP finalist and gamble on a pair of former high-end starters returning to form.

Major League Signings

  • DJ LeMahieu, 2B: Six years, $90MM
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: One year, $11MM
  • Brett Gardner, OF: Two years, $5.15MM (second season is a player option)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: Two years, $5.15MM (second season is a player option)
  • Darren O’Day, RHP: Two years, $3.15MMM (second season is a player option)
  • Total spend: $114.45MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Yankees faced entering the offseason was whether they would bring back second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who thrived in their uniform from 2019-20 after they signed the ex-Cub and Rockie to a two-year, $24MM contract. LeMahieu turned into one of baseball’s premier players during that two-season stretch, even earning MVP consideration last year, so it was naturally going to cost the Yankees much more this time to keep him in the fold.

Thanks to shortstop Gleyber Torres’ ability to play both middle infield positions, the Yankees could have let LeMahieu walk and seriously pursued a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story or dipped into free agency for old friend Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien or Andrelton Simmons. Otherwise, they may have left Torres at short and signed, say, second baseman Kolten Wong, though their offense would have taken a major hit in that tradeoff.

LeMahieu garnered serious interest from multiple teams in free agency after rejecting the Yankees’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, but remaining in the Bronx was always his preference. After a drawn-out trip to the open market, the two sides came together on a six-year, $90MM pact. Six years is an especially long deal for a player who will turn 33 in July, but the Yankees made that commitment in an effort to lower the average annual value and skirt the luxury-tax threshold.

Staying under this year’s $210MM tax seemed to be an important offseason theme for the Yankees (whether that should be a concern for such a rich franchise is up for debate), as they didn’t give out any other big guarantees in free agency, instead structuring various deals to lower the AAVs of the contracts. Outfielder Brett Gardner, the Yankees’ longest-tenured player, and relievers Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson are prime examples; they inked pacts which include cheap 2022 player options that they’re unlikely to exercise barring nightmarish results in 2021.

Gardner and Wilson will both earn $2.85MM in 2021 before deciding on player options valued at just $2.3MM. Should they decline that player option, the Yankees would then hold $7.15MM club options over the pair — each with a $1.15MM buyout. Exercising the player option for either player would only mean guaranteeing an additional $1.15MM for himself. In Wilson’s case, that would trigger a third-year club option at the league minimum, making it even less appealing to exercise his player option for 2022. As for O’Day, his $1.4MM player option comes with a $700K buyout even if he declines, so there’s little reason for him to pick up his end of the deal. It’s a complicated series of accounting measures, but the end result was adding three solid veterans while remaining about $3.5MM shy of the luxury threshold.

O’Day and Wilson should help replace Adam Ottavino, who departed in a rare trade with the archrival Red Sox that saved the Yankees more than $8MM (another move driven by the luxury tax). New York’s bullpen figures to be strong yet again, although key setup man Zack Britton is off to an inauspicious start in 2021. The team will go without him for as many as three to four months because of arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. The Yankees kicked off their winter by exercising Britton’s 2022 option for $14MM. Had they declined it, he could have opted for free agency this past offseason.

The Yankees’ starting staff underwent quite a bit of retooling, meanwhile, as mainstay Masahiro Tanaka went back to Japan, J.A. Happ signed with the Twins, and James Paxton reunited with the Mariners. Paxton and Happ were expected to leave, but it was somewhat surprising the Yankees made little effort to retain Tanaka, a quality regular-season performer from 2014-20 who earned a reputation as a big-game pitcher during his run with the club.

Instead of re-signing Tanaka, the Yankees took chances on two-time AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber in free agency and ex-Pirate Jameson Taillon in a trade. The two hurlers are intriguing additions because of their potential, but they’re also wild cards. Kluber’s an ex-Indians workhorse, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old missed most of 2019 with a fractured forearm, and enemy offenses had their way with him during that 35 2/3-inning campaign. As a member of the Rangers last season, he made his first start of the season, lasted one inning and didn’t pitch again on account of shoulder problems. Taillon, 29, produced mid-rotation numbers with the Pirates from 2016-19, but he underwent Tommy John surgery – the second of his career – in the last of those years and didn’t take the mound last season.

Kluber and Taillon are sure bets to begin the year in the Yankees’ rotation, as is ace Gerrit Cole. But Cole seems like the only lead-pipe lock to succeed. As for the rest of the group, Domingo German missed last year because of a domestic violence suspension; Jordan Montgomery endured a trying 2020 in his return from a TJ procedure; Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt (who’s down with an elbow injury) and Michael King carry little major league experience; and former No. 1 Luis Severino sat out almost all of the previous two seasons because of shoulder problems and Tommy John. Severino could come back this summer, but it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll give the Yankees. All things considered, it’s a risky bunch behind Cole.

Fortunately for the Yankees, if their rotation doesn’t live up to the front office’s expectations, the lineup still carries the ability to overwhelm opposing pitching staffs. Sluggers Aaron Judge (right field) and Giancarlo Stanton (designated hitter) missed a large amount of action with various injuries during the previous couple years, but they remain imposing threats at the plate. Elsewhere, LeMahieu and Torres make for one of the top offensive middle infield tandems in the sport; Gardner’s a capable fourth outfielder at the very least; first baseman Luke Voit led the majors in home runs last season; third baseman Gio Urshela carried his 2019 breakout into 2020; left fielder Clint Frazier finally broke out offensively in 2020; and center fielder Aaron Hicks, despite annual low batting averages and some past injury issues, has typically given the Yankees above-average production.

If you’re looking for question marks unrelated to injuries in the Yankees’ offense, catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielder Mike Tauchman come to mind. Sanchez has been inconsistent – sometimes tremendous, sometimes terrible – and was both a non-tender and trade candidate after a disastrous 2020. The Yankees ultimately kept Sanchez around for a $6.35MM salary, though they did explore possible upgrades in free agency when they showed interest in James McCann and Yadier Molina in free agency. Looking into McCann and Molina implies that Sanchez could be skating on thin ice with the organization. For now, he and and backup Kyle Higashioka – Cole’s personal catcher late in the season – remain intact as New York’s top two backstops, but veteran Robinson Chirinos is also in camp.

Tauchman was a great find for the Yankees when they acquired him from the Rockies heading into 2019, as he slashed .277/.361/.504 with 13 homers and accumulated a whopping 18 Defensive Runs Saved among all three outfield positions in 87 games. Tauchman was nowhere near that effective as either a hitter or defender last year, though. Now, with Gardner returning as the primary backup, Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich in camp, and no minor league options left, it’s possible the Yankees will deal Tauchman in the coming weeks if they don’t think he’s worthy of a roster spot. Former Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar also finds himself without an obvious path to regular at-bats, although unlike Tauchman, he has a minor league option remaining, so there’s no immediate need to make a tough decision on the 26-year-old.

Longtime general manager Brian Cashman looks as if he has put together another playoff-caliber roster. The Yankees appear likely to once again pile up plenty of runs in 2021, but whether they’ll be able to jump over the reigning AL East champion Rays, fend off the rapidly improving Blue Jays and then win their first World Series since 2009 will depend largely on how well their high-risk rotation performs.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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It was another quiet winter for the Orioles, who continue to focus on building up their farm and keeping payroll down during a lengthy stretch of lean seasons.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Orioles kicked off the winter with what appeared to be a rather straightforward decision on a $3.5MM club option for shortstop Jose Iglesias. It was somewhat curious that Baltimore waited until the last minute to formally exercise that option, considering that a $500K buyout made it a net $3MM decision, but the end result to pick up the option came as little surprise after a productive season for Iglesias. General manager Mike Elias said after the fact that the option was never in doubt and called his shortstop a “perfect fit for what we need right now.” Iglesias was traded to the Angels 29 days later.

As has regularly been the case for the O’s, their return included a pair of low-level pitchers. Righty Garrett Stallings has yet to appear in a pro game, though he was a 2019 fifth-rounder who is regarded as a polished arm that could quickly move through the ranks and become a back-of-the-rotation starter. Twenty-year-old righty Jean Pinto has just 12 pro innings under his belt and is further from the big leagues. Baseball America rated Stallings as the organization’s No. 26 prospect earlier this winter.

Absent the “perfect fit” comments from Elias, it wouldn’t have been much of a surprise to see Iglesias on the move. The O’s have been willing to listen on any players as they reshape the organization, after all, and as an affordable veteran with one year remaining on his contract, he was a logical player to market. To the Orioles’ credit, they eventually added a similar player in Freddy Galvis, who’ll fill the same role with an even more modest price tag for the coming season.

That proved to be the Orioles’ lone big league free-agent signing this winter, though it wasn’t the only player acquired to help the 2021 roster. Baltimore plucked 2019 Gold Glove winner Yolmer Sanchez off waivers and figures to give the 28-year-old plenty of run at second base. Paired with Galvis, he should form a strong defensive tandem in the middle infield, although Sanchez could eventually face some competition from the player acquired in the Orioles’ other major offseason transaction.

Few would’ve expected the Orioles to be able to both offload some of the remaining $15MM on Alex Cobb’s four-year deal and do so in a trade that brought a young player of some note back to the organization. But the Orioles managed to do just that, shipping Cobb to the Angels in a trade that saved the O’s about $5MM and brought in one-time top prospect Jahmai Jones.

While the 23-year-old Jones has seen his stock dip since he was on the back end of Top 100 lists at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, he’s still a near-MLB-ready piece who got his feet wet with a three-game call to the Majors for the Halos last year. The Orioles have said he’ll work mostly at second base, but if Sanchez settles in nicely at that spot, Jones does have a good bit of outfield experience as well.

It was a surprising trade on many levels. The market had plenty of mid- and back-of-the-rotation options available around the same price point as Cobb — many who are more durable than Cobb has been. The Angels clearly saw something they like in Cobb more than comparable, available arms (e.g. Rick Porcello), but the market for the right-hander couldn’t have been too strong. The O’s did well to shed some of that contract and add an intriguing young player, even if he’s in need of a rebound.

That said, it’s also worth pointing out that Cobb is still the team’s second-most expensive player. The $10MM they’re paying him to pitch for the Angels is more than they’re paying everyone other than Chris Davis. The money saved in their two trades and series of non-tenders apparently won’t be put back into the 2021 club, so fans will have to simply hope such moves lead to greater spending down the road.

Baltimore had the opportunity to choose among any number of veteran starting pitchers or relievers, but the Orioles settled on minor league deals with some veteran pitchers in dire need of a rebound. Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey haven’t been high-end pitchers since 2015, and Harvey in particular has been clobbered in several stops since his days as Citi Field’s Dark Knight. Hernandez, meanwhile, barely cracked 90 mph with his average fastball in his final year with the Mariners. He opted out of the 2020 season after signing a minor league deal with the Braves. Hernandez was able to survive when his once 95-plus velocity dipped to the 93 mph range, but as it’s continued to drop further, his overall effectiveness has waned.

It’s a stretch to expect Hernandez and Harvey to regain their form at this point, yet that duo joins Wade LeBlanc and Tom Eshelman — both back with the club on minor league deals — as the only additions to the rotation competition. The Orioles have plenty of young arms they’d like to take a look at, some of which will get that chance in 2021. Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Bruce Zimmerman and Michael Baumann are all on the 40-man roster.

Still, it already feels as though there will be a frequent question of how they’re going to get through a given week of starts. John Means is locked into a rotation spot. The only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster who has even 30 innings of MLB experience is out-of-options righty Jorge Lopez, who carries a career 6.03 ERA and isn’t even a guarantee to break camp with the team.

There’s something to be said for the pedal-to-the-metal, ultra-aggressive rebuild approach, and perhaps the Orioles will indeed catch lightning in a bottle on Harvey and/or Hernandez. But there’s also something to be said for the value of bringing in some stability to help such an unproven staff, and the Orioles chose not to lock themselves into such a commitment despite myriad options being available over the winter (and even up until the time of this writing). As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted while he and I were chatting about this very subject: the Cubs probably wouldn’t have won the 2016 World Series if they hadn’t signed Scott Feldman in Nov. 2012. The Jake Arrieta trade is an extreme example of cashing in on a veteran placeholder, of course, but there’s value in making such additions and not relying too heavily on younger arms who aren’t accustomed to the rigors of a full MLB season’s workload.

Turning to the lineup, the Orioles didn’t add much beyond Galvis, Sanchez and Jones, and many onlookers — particularly Orioles fans — were stunned to see the club non-tender slugger Renato Nunez. The 26-year-old (27 in April) belted 43 homers from 2019-20 while batting .247/.314/.469 in Baltimore.

However, the Nunez decision was also in many ways foreseeable. He doesn’t walk much, has a higher-than-average strikeout rate and brings minimal defensive value to the table. The home runs are obviously nice, but clubs have stopped paying much for skill sets that are heavy in power but light in OBP and defensive value. That Nunez went unclaimed on waivers and ultimately settled for a minor league deal in Detroit only further underscores that market trend. Hanser Alberto found himself in a similar spot due to marginal on-base skills and a lack of power, and he was also cut loose before settling on a non-guaranteed pact in Kansas City.

While some holes in the game for Nunez and Alberto surely contributed to the Orioles moving on, the decisions were also accelerated by the growing number of MLB-ready bats Baltimore can evaluate in the near term. Austin Hays has seemingly put his injuries behind him and earned another chance to be a regular. Anthony Santander may have had a breakout in right field. Ryan Mountcastle debuted in 2020 and raked through 35 games. DJ Stewart showed some three-true-outcomes intrigue. Rio Ruiz hasn’t given much reason for optimism at third base, but prospect Rylan Bannon is more or less ready for a big league look. Chance Sisco will get another opportunity behind the plate, but uber-prospect Adley Rutschman looms in the minors.

Best of all for the 2021 Orioles, they’ll welcome back their clubhouse leader and best all-around hitter. Slugger Trey Mancini took a leave of absence a year ago around this time, disclosing weeks later that he’d been diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer. Mancini underwent surgery, endured chemotherapy and battled for several months until thrilling fans throughout the game by announcing that he was in remission. It’s been great to see Mancini get back into a game setting, and it’ll be a truly special moment to see him take the field for the Orioles on Opening Day. They’ll no doubt look forward to welcoming his leadership back to the clubhouse and welcoming the bat that produced a .291/.364/.535 slash in 2019 back to the heart of the lineup. For all the questions surrounding the pitching staff, the Baltimore lineup has its share of intriguing hitters.

All in all, the Orioles’ offseason was something of a mixed bag. Both trades of established big leaguers made sense, and the Cobb deal in particular was well-received around the industry. Galvis is a perfectly sensible stopgap option at shortstop, and they operated around the fringes of the 40-man with some waiver claims and Rule 5 adds. The non-tender decisions, while a surprise to some, were at the very least defensible.

At the same time, the Orioles appear set to trot out a $59.5MM payroll despite the fact that the 20 pitchers on their 40-man roster have combined for a total of 1036 2/3 innings at the Major League level. The top depth options they brought in to supplement the group haven’t been big league contributors for years. The hope is that several young arms will claim long-term spots both in the rotation and the bullpen, but the results along the way could be ugly.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

MLBTR Poll: Projecting The 2021 Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays were one of the more active teams in baseball this offseason. Rumored to be interested in virtually every high-profile player on the free agent or trade markets, Toronto eventually made a handful of key additions, none bigger than George Springer. The former Astros star was followed by Marcus Semien, who rounds out a potentially star-studded infield of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. An outfield of Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernández has the potential to be similarly impressive, at least offensively.

Toronto was also active in adding to the pitching staff, but there’s a lot less certainty in that area. The Jays brought back Robbie Ray and acquired Steven Matz in a trade with the Mets. Those players are coming off down years, though, as are fellow projected rotation members Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling. Only Hyun-jin Ryu looks like a sure bet to provide quality production as a starter.

It’s something of a similar story in the bullpen. Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps bring varying degrees of upside as offseason acquisitions. However, due to either injury or poor performance, none of that trio got good results in 2020 (although in Phelps’ case, that seems to be a product of unsustainably dreadful home run luck). Is that enough to make up for a relief corps that, despite strong performances from Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano, was well below-average by both ERA (4.71) and K% – BB% (10.7 points) in 2020?

Let’s turn to the 2021 projections. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects the Jays for a typical season in the 85-win range. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts system is more bullish, pegging Toronto as an 88-win team. We’ll split the difference: over or under 86.5 wins for the Blue Jays in 2021?

(poll link for app users)

 

Top Remaining MLB Free Agents

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The Astros’ agreement with Jake Odorizzi on a three-year contract yesterday removed the top remaining free agent from the market. Even into the second week of spring training games, though, there are a few potentially valuable players available to teams.

  • Rick Porcello: MLBTR’s #46 free agent entering the offseason, Porcello made 12 starts for the Mets in 2020. His 5.64 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but Porcello logged a more respectable 4.45 SIERA. The 32-year-old isn’t a particularly exciting option at this stage of his career, but he’s been an extremely durable innings-eater, and we’re entering a year where reliable innings might be more valuable than ever coming off the shortened season.
  • Cole Hamels: Hamels is the other of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents still unsigned, having placed 47th on the list. 2020 was a lost season for Hamels, who was limited to a single start by shoulder issues. He was still plenty productive as recently as 2019, though.
  • Shane Greene: The rumor mill has been surprisingly quiet for the reliable Greene. His peripherals don’t support the 2.60 ERA he put up for the Braves last season, and it’s alarming that his strikeout rate fell by six points last year. Greene has been something of a bullpen workhorse in recent years, though, and he generally does a decent job avoiding hard contact.
  • Maikel Franco: The 28-year-old didn’t live up to expectations as the regular third baseman in Philadelphia. But he had a decent 2020 season after signing with the Royals, hitting .278/.321/.457 with eight home runs in 243 plate appearances. The Orioles are among the teams interested in Franco, whose market is now “heating up” after a slow winter.
  • Jedd Gyorko: Gyorko’s name hasn’t appeared on MLBTR’s pages since the Brewers declined his club option last October. That’s a bit surprising given Gyorko’s performance in limited playing time last season. The 32-year-old hit a very productive .248/.333/.504 and looks like a decent right-handed platoon option at the corner infield spots.

There are a handful more who could plausibly claim to be the top free agent remaining. Roberto Osuna, Yasiel Puig, Edwin Encarnación and Homer Bailey are among the others unsigned. How does the MLBTR readership feel about the remaining crop of free agents?

(poll link for app users)

 

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates ramped up their rebuilding efforts by trading away several key players without adding much in the way of Major League reinforcements.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Ben Cherington’s first year at the helm of the Pirates didn’t result in the aggressive tear-down that many anticipated, although that was in part due to injuries. Chris Archer’s thoracic outlet surgery and a series of health setbacks for Keone Kela took away a pair of obvious chips prior to last summer’s trade deadline.

This offseason, Cherington and his staff got to work on what has long felt like an inevitable tear-down of the previous regime’s roster. Gone are Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon, each traded away for a package of multiple young players — nearly all of whom are several years away from contributing at the Major League level.

Right-hander Wil Crowe is perhaps the lone exception, and he could join the Pirates’ big league roster early in the 2021 season. Crowe doesn’t have huge upside, but he could slot into the back of a Pirates rotation that is in a transitional state after losing Musgrove, Taillon and righty Trevor Williams, who was non-tendered back in December. (Williams went on to sign elsewhere in the division, landing a one-year deal with the Cubs.)

Broadly speaking, the trades of Bell, Musgrove and Taillon are hardly unexpected. The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020 and will be among the worst in 2021 as well. All three members of that trio have just two years of club control remaining, meaning none of them were likely to contribute to the Pirates’ next competitive club.

Still, there’s an argument that the Bucs would’ve been better off holding off on making any deals until this summer. Bell is coming off a miserable .226/.305/.364 showing through 57 games last season. The switch-hitting slugger’s batted-ball profile was encouraging, but his strikeout rate spiked during last year’s abbreviated season. With a big first half, it’s feasible that Bell might’ve been more in demand than he was over the winter, when few clubs were looking for everyday options at first base and/or designated hitter.

Taillon, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched since the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. It was the second such procedure of his career, and he has a fairly lengthy track record of injuries, so perhaps the Pirates didn’t want to risk any further setbacks. One would imagine that had Taillon demonstrated his health and looked effective in Spring Training and early in the season, however, that the Pirates might have been able to fetch a larger return. Musgrove also dealt with injuries in 2020, although he came back and finished the year with his most impressive work of the season.

None of that is intended to pan the returns the Pirates received in those deals. Seven of Pittsburgh’s Top 30 prospects at Baseball America were acquired in those trades, with another two coming via last winter’s Starling Marte swap. Any rebuilding team is faced with trying to find the right balance between trading a player at peak value and hanging onto him too long; the Pirates were burned, to an extent, by hanging onto Kela and Archer, ultimately receiving nothing in return for either player. They took a more risk-averse approach by moving Bell, Taillon and Musgrove now rather than marketing them midseason, but they also ensured themselves a respectable return on each of the three.

That said, it’s also likely that the trades were financially motivated — particularly in the case of Bell, who avoided arbitration with the Nationals by signing a one-year, $6.35MM deal after the trade. Bell, Taillon ($2.55MM) and Musgrove ($4.45MM) will earn a combined $13.35MM in 2021. Williams, whom the club cut loose for nothing, was due a raise on his $2.825MM salary (and eventually signed at $2.5MM). The Bucs lopped more than $15MM off an already modest payroll and opted not to reinvest much into the 2021 roster. They’re currently set to open the year with a team payroll shy of $45MM, the lowest in baseball by a wide margin. (Cleveland is next lowest at about $53MM.)

Pittsburgh’s lone big league signing was a one-year, $2.5MM deal with lefty Tyler Anderson. The former Rockies first-rounder had an up-and-down tenure in Colorado and a decent showing with last year’s Giants, but was non-tendered by San Francisco in December. It’s a reasonable enough price point but a little puzzling as a rebuilding team’s standalone addition of the winter. Anderson has a fairly lengthy injury history, including a pair of knee surgeries. He hasn’t been a bankable source of innings and even at his best has been more of a fourth starter.

In a vacuum, the Anderson signing is perfectly reasonable, but it feels as though it’d be better for the Bucs if Anderson was one of several additions made with the intent of bolstering the rotation after losing three veterans this winter. That’s especially true given that the Pirates could trade either Steven Brault or Chad Kuhl at any point, further depleting their starting options.

As it stands, the Pirates will try to navigate the season with Brault, Kuhl, Anderson, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Crowe, Miguel Yajure and Cody Ponce as their most immediate rotation options. Other internal options will surely arise, but particularly given the possibility of a Kuhl and/or Brault trade, the club could be thin on rotation depth. Non-roster invitees James Marvel, Clay Holmes and Chase De Jong could provide some cover, as could waiver claim Sean Poppen, but this looks like a club that could use another dependable arm or two just to help get through the year.

In the bullpen, the Bucs have some once-touted pitchers (Kyle Crick, Carson Fulmer, Michael Feliz, Chris Stratton) but there’s little in the way of certainty beyond de facto closer Richard Rodriguez. The 31-year-old is quietly among the game’s more effective relievers and should give them a solid option late in games — at least until this summer when Rodriguez is likely to be on the trade market alongside pretty much every other veteran on this roster.

On the position-player side of things, the Bucs picked up some catching depth by claiming Michael Perez from the Rays and inking longtime Rockies catcher Tony Wolters to a non-roster deal. Perez hasn’t hit much in limited big league time, but the 28-year-old has a solid Triple-A track record and gives them a lefty bat to pair with right-handed-hitting Jacob Stallings.

The trade of Bell opens up first base for Colin Moran, though he’ll likely be on the market this summer himself — particularly if he can sustain last year’s uptick in power. Second baseman Adam Frazier was discussed in trades this winter, even as recently as late January, so it’s possible he could still be moved prior to Opening Day. If not, he can expect to hear his name in trade rumors throughout the year.

On the other side of the diamond, former first-rounders Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker will vie for playing time at shortstop. Tucker’s outfield experiment appears to be over, so he’ll get another look at his original position. Both have options remaining. Uber-prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, meanwhile, should have a clear path to at-bats at the hot corner after last year’s brilliant debut. At least on the surface, gregarious veteran Todd Frazier would seem to have a good chance to make the roster as a backup option at either corner.

Pittsburgh entered the winter without much clarity in the outfield, and several months later, not much has changed. They’ll still hope for a Gregory Polanco rebound that allows them to shed at least some of his contract, while 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds will get a chance at his own rebound in left field.

On paper, the Pirates seemed like a decent landing spot for a non-tendered outfielder with some big league experience and upside — a Hunter Renfroe or David Dahl, for instance — but they opted instead to mine the DFA/waiver market. The Bucs have a pair of former top 100 prospects to compete for time in center field: August waiver claim Anthony Alford and recent trade acquisition Dustin Fowler. They’ll be joined by veteran minor league signee Brian Goodwin, who figures to have a good chance to make the club as well. If Goodwin indeed cracks the roster, he can be controlled through 2022 via arbitration.

No one expected the Pirates to be particularly aggressive spenders in free agency this winter, but it’s still something of a surprise, given the holes on the pitching staff, that the club didn’t bring in some more low-cost help. If nothing else, any such arms could’ve potentially become trade chips this summer, and they’d have helped to prevent the team from over-relying on a collection of pitchers that has been oft-injured and inconsistent. Perhaps ownership simply wanted to keep the payroll as low as possible, and if that’s the case, then mission accomplished; the entire Pirates roster will barely earn more than Trevor Bauer alone will be paid by the Dodgers in 2021.

Winning games in the short-term clearly isn’t a priority for the Pirates as they wade through the arduous tanking process in an effort to stack their draft and international classes over the next few years. We’ve seen many clubs go through this process since the Cubs and Astros won World Series on the backs of full-scale rebuilds, but the returns have diminished over the years as more teams employ the tactic. Perhaps the Pirates will eventually emerge as a division power in the wake of these lean years, but they’re asking fans for an awful lot of patience as they gear up for what looks like another non-competitive season and a top-five pick in 2022.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?

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The Twins have high expectations for their offense in 2021. It’s a talented group with veterans Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson playing alongside young players on the rise like Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Arraez. In the middle both metaphorically and positionally, however, centerfielder Byron Buxton undergirds the Twins’ machine in both halves of the inning. He’s the player on the roster with the highest two-way ceiling, and at 27 years old, he’s in his prime. He’s also two years from free agency. Buxton’s agent has been in contact with the Twins about a potential extension, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter), but there’s a lot for the Twins to consider.

Defense has long been Buxton’s calling card. He is routinely one of the more impressive performers in the grass, and the numbers back it up. He has averaged 18.3 defensive runs saved and 9.8 UZR per 1,200 innings, which roughly amounts to one season. Both are excellent marks. Statcast is similarly complimentary of Buxton’s glovework, crediting him with five outs above average in 2020. That tied with four others for sixth among outfielders, despite only appearing in 39 games. In 2017, when Buxton was healthy enough to play more than 100 games, he racked up 30 OAA, not only topping the field in that season, but setting the bar. It remains the highest single-season mark from any outfielder in the Statcast era by a fair margin.

Buxton entered the league less polished on the other end, but he has nonetheless come into his own over the past two seasons. Early in his career, he was plagued by strikeout rates over 30 percent, only average power, and well-below-average walk rates. The latter still holds true, but the Twins want him swinging the bat because good things happen when he does. His exit velocity has surged from 88.3 mph in 2015-18 to 90.4 mph the past two seasons. His power has climbed into an elite range as well, rising from .157 ISO his first four seasons to .292 ISO in 430 plate appearances across 2019-20. A bat that was 23 percent below average through 2018 has been 13 percent above average since.

Put together, Buxton’s potential is that of a two-way centerpiece at one of the most important positions on the diamond. The Twins have to be tempted to find a way to keep the former number two overall pick in a Twins uniform long-term. Buxton would like to stay in Minnesota, but the Twins are focused on keeping him healthy in 2021, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes.

Though the idea of Buxton wearing a Twins uniform long-term is tantalizing, the injury concerns are real. The Twins have placed Buxton on the injured list no less than 13 times since he’s been in their organization, with the ailments ranging from concussions to wrist sprains to shoulder issues. The Georgia native hasn’t seen his skills affected, however. He remains one of the fastest players in the game, finishing in the 99th percentile for sprint speed in every season of his career. He turned in a strong batted ball profile in 2020 as well, landing in the 85th percentile for exit velocity, 89th percentile for hard hit percentage, and 88th percentile for barrel percentage.

Finding the right price point for such a high-risk, high-ceiling player will be a challenge for the Twins and Buxton’s representatives at Jet Sports Management. The muddled centerfield market certainly doesn’t help matters. Despite it being one of the weaker positions around the game, Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled to find the kind of deal he was looking for and ultimately settled on a two-year, $24MM offer with an opt-out. Meanwhile, George Springer had no trouble securing a deal, signing in Toronto for six years and $150MM. There were no free agent centerfielders to sign a multi-year deal last winter. The year before it was AJ Pollock joining the Dodgers for five years, $60MM and Andrew McCutchen signing a three-year, $50MM deal with the Phillies. Neither player primarily plays center anymore, however. Lorenzo Cain signed a five-year, $80MM deal with the Brewers the year before that.

Pollock is a natural comp as an oft-injured potential star in center, but he was entering his age-31 season as a free agent, two years younger than Buxton would be after 2022. Cain was also 31, so was Dexter Fowler when he signed with the Cardinals, so will be Springer and Bradley in the first seasons of their new deals. Suffice is to say that it’s hardly a simple task to project what Buxton might find in free agency – especially two years from now under the conditions of a new CBA. The Twins have maintained flexibility in long-term payroll, with their luxury tax payroll falling from ~$147MM this year to ~$66MM in commitments for 2022 and ~$57MM the year after.

But let’s put the financial parameters of a deal to the side for now, and consider the question simply. Should the Twins try to sign Buxton to a long-term deal?

(poll link for app users)

Out Of Options 2021

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s helpful and much-appreciated sources.

This year, option status for several players remains unresolved at present due to the nature of the 2020 season, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  We’ll keep this list updated as new information comes in.

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