MLBTR Originals

The quality of the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class has been discussed for years at this point. We’re just a few weeks away from that group actually hitting the open market, with a handful of young stars at the top of the class offering shortstop-needy clubs plenty of options.

Stars at the Top of the Class

Carlos Correa (27 years old next April): A former first overall pick and top prospect, Correa has long been on a trajectory towards a free agent megadeal. He was in the big leagues by age 20 and immediately a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter, a true franchise shortstop. Correa has never had strikeout problems, has always drawn walks, and hits for power. He was dinged up a bit early in his career — leading to some whispers about his durability — but his only IL stint of the last two seasons has come for feeling COVID-like symptoms in July.

Correa only hit at a league average level during last year’s shortened season, but he’s put that behind him with a huge 2021. Over 640 plate appearances, he posted a .279/.366/.485 line (134 wRC+) with 26 home runs. After some mixed results on defense early in his career, he’s rated as one of the league’s best with the glove for the past few seasons. Correa’s an impact player on both sides of the ball, the #1 position player by Baseball Reference WAR this season (#8 by FanGraphs WAR). Because he got to the majors so quickly, Correa’s hitting free agency in advance of his age-27 season, so he’ll have a few prime years to market.

Corey Seager (27): As with Correa, Seager’s a former top prospect who starred from Day One. He’s been a decidedly above-average hitter throughout his career, posting four seasons with a wRC+ of 125 or above. There aren’t any nits to pick in Seager’s offensive profile, either. He’s a left-handed power bat who rarely strikes out and draws a fair amount of walks. Seager consistently places near the top of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact rate, and few hitters have been better over the past two years.

Seager fractured his right hand on a hit-by-pitch in May, costing him more than a month. That kept his counting stats down a bit this year, but on a rate basis, Seager was as good as ever. He hit .306/.394/.521 (147 wRC+) over 407 plate appearances. Going back to the start of 2020, he ranks eighth leaguewide in wRC+, and that’s without accounting for a massive playoff run last season that culminated in World Series MVP honors. Defensive metrics have generally pegged Seager as average or a bit below in recent seasons, but there aren’t many more impactful offensive players at any position around the league.

Marcus Semien (31): Semien spent the bulk of this season manning second base for the Blue Jays in deference to Bo Bichette. He was a shortstop up until this year, and he rated as one of the game’s premier defenders at the keystone in 2021. Teams might be split on where they prefer Semien, but it seems likely there’ll be at least a few who’d consider moving him back to shortstop depending upon their current roster situation.

Semien led MLB with 724 plate appearances, and he hit a whopping .265/.334/.538. He popped 45 home runs, the fourth-highest total in the league, and stole fifteen bags. Semien completely regained his peak offensive form after an average 2020, and he took to his new position with ease. Semien’s age will keep him from landing the length or total guarantee of the market’s younger stars, but he’s wrapping up his second elite season in the past three years and leads all position players in FanGraphs WAR since the start of 2019. There’s no doubt at this point Semien’s an elite player, and a five or six-year deal that easily eclipses $100MM should be on the table with how well he’s performed.

Trevor Story (29): It wasn’t a banner year for Story, who started off slowly at the plate. He turned things around a bit in the second half, but his overall .251/.329/.471 line was his worst since 2017. Story’s had fairly dramatic home-road splits, at least a moderate concern for a player in Colorado. Most of the damage he did this season came against left-handed pitching, as Story was a well below-average hitter (.234/.318/.417) against righties.

It’s clearly not the ideal time for Story to hit the market for the first time, but he’ll still have plenty of points in his favor. None of his batted ball metrics were much changed from recent seasons. Once one of the game’s highest-strikeout hitters, Story has consistently cut down on the swing-and-miss as he’s gotten more experience and now only punches out at a league average rate. He was plagued by a career-low .293 batting average on balls in play, which interested teams will likely count on bouncing back moving forward. And Story typically rates as one of the game’s best defensive shortstops (although metrics were more divided on his performance this year). Even in a relative “down” season, Story was worth around three-to-four wins above replacement, and he’s shown the ability to be a true impact player in prior years.

Javier Báez (29): Báez is one of the game’s toughest players to evaluate on the heels of an up-and-down couple of seasons. He had a disastrous 2020 with the Cubs and started slowly again in 2021. But he started to heat up in July, and he only got better after a deadline day trade to the Mets, hitting .299/.371/.515 over 186 plate appearances in Queens.

There are some obvious areas of concern in Báez’s profile. Of the 210 hitters with 500+ plate appearances since the start of 2020, nobody has swung and missed more. Only Salvador Pérez and José Iglesias have chased more pitches outside the strike zone. And what Báez did this season is somewhat unprecedented; he’s the only player (min. 500 PA) to have an above-average hitting season while striking out as often and walking as infrequently as he did this year.

Yet Báez has always had something of an alarming approach, and he’s continued to thrive in spite of it. He hits for power, runs the bases well and is regarded as an excellent defensive infielder. Aside from the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Báez has been a well above-average performer since 2018, and he’s one of the sport’s most entertaining and popular players. Unlike with the other top of the market shortstops, signing Báez wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. The midseason trade makes him ineligible to be tagged with a qualifying offer.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor hasn’t played a whole lot of shortstop over the past couple seasons, but he’s still capable of manning the position as needed. He’s moved all over the diamond for the Dodgers, spending the bulk of this season in center field and at second base.

Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars (at least until his heroics in this week’s Wild Card game), but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks virtually everywhere he plays. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season, but Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.

Potential Regulars

Freddy Galvis (32): Galvis has carved out a solid career as a glove-first player who offers consistently below-average but passable offense. He’s a switch-hitter with some power who generally puts the ball in play. Galvis doesn’t walk much, leading to low on-base percentages, and his defensive marks have dipped a bit in recent seasons. Teams aren’t going to view Galvis as an impact addition, but he consistently does enough on both sides of the ball to be a regular who chips in one-to-two wins above replacement per season.

Andrelton Simmons (32): Simmons has a strong case as the best defensive infielder of his generation. He posts eye-popping Defensive Runs Saved totals year in and year out, with highlight reel plays a frequent occurrence. At his best, Simmons combined that incredible glovework with league average offense, driven by an ability to seemingly never strike out. That offense has fallen off dramatically over the past three seasons, though, and Simmons hit only .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins this year. He might have a hard time landing an everyday job coming off such a poor showing at the plate, but even as he’s entered his 30’s, Simmons remains one of the sport’s most electrifying and valuable defenders.

José Iglesias (32): Iglesias never quite matched up to Simmons, but he’s offered a broadly similar profile. A high-contact hitter with an elite glove, Iglesias has had his share of productive seasons. He posted a huge, albeit BABIP-inflated, shortened 2020 season, but his offense dipped back to its typical levels (.271/.309/.391) this year. Were Iglesias still an elite defender, that’d be more than enough to make him a productive regular. But his defensive numbers bizarrely plummeted, with Iglesias rating as a league-worst 21 runs below average at shortstop according to DRS. That’ll put a damper on his market, but a team that believes in his ability to bounce back from those uncharacteristic struggles might still give him an opportunity at an everyday job.

Jonathan Villar (30): Villar had a nice season with the Mets, bouncing back from a disappointing 2020 to hit .249/.322/.416. That’s slightly above-average hitting, and the former stolen base champ continues to provide additional value on the basepaths. Villar’s not a great defender anywhere but he’s capable of playing throughout the infield and has a bit of outfield experience. It’s possible he’s done enough this year to earn an everyday job somewhere, although it seems likelier first-division clubs would see him as a high-end insurance option off the bench.

Utility Types

Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. García doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.

Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He popped three homers in 36 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only posted a .222 OBP in his second stint as an Astro. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.

Andrew Romine (36): Romine saw a decent amount of action with the Tigers between 2014-17, bouncing all around the diamond in a reserve capacity. He’s never offered much at the plate, though, and he only tallied four combined plate appearances between 2019-20 before returning for a 26-game stint with the Cubs this year.

Prior installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base

As the regular season winds to a close, we’ll continue our position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve already covered catchers, first basemen and third basemen in greater detail, and we’ll slide over to second base this evening.

There’ll certainly be some overlap between second and third base, with plenty of utility options capable of handling either position who’ll be available. It’s also possible we see a team sign a shortstop with little or no second base experience to fill the position. Second is a less demanding spot to handle defensively, and teams with established in-house shortstops could certainly make a run at one of the top free agent shortstops on the market (Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story or Javier Báez) and move them to the keystone as a way of injecting an impact bat into the lineup. (The Mets, already rostering Francisco Lindor, have mostly deployed Báez at second after acquiring him from the Cubs at the deadline). For our purposes, however, we’ll treat that group as shortstops and cover them in-depth later in this series.

Marcus Semien already made that switch last offseason, when the Blue Jays signed the former A’s shortstop and moved him to second in deference to Bo Bichette. It’s plausible Semien moves back to shortstop in free agency this time around, but we’ll include him as a second baseman in this exercise, since 140 of his 154 starts this year have come at second base.

Semien, unsurprisingly, tops the class:

Everyday Options

Marcus Semien (31 years old next April): Semien settled for a one-year “prove it” deal with Toronto last winter after a disappointing showing in last year’s shortened season. The hope was he’d replicate his huge 2019 campaign — one in which he finished in third place in AL MVP balloting — before re-entering free agency in search of a big multi-year deal. He’s done exactly that.

Semien leads MLB with 697 plate appearances, and he’s hitting a whopping .268/.339/.543. He’s popped 43 home runs, the fourth-highest total in the league, and stolen fifteen bags. Semien has completely regained his peak offensive form, and he’s taken to his new position with ease. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have pegged Semien as a plus defender at second base, and it seems likely teams would be comfortable installing him everyday at either middle infield position moving forward. Semien’s age will keep him from landing the length or total guarantee of the market’s younger stars, but he’s wrapping up his second elite season in the past three years and leads all position players in FanGraphs WAR since the start of 2019. There’s no longer any doubt Semien’s an elite player, and a five or six-year deal that easily eclipses $100MM shouldn’t elude him this time around. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor’s a true super-utility type who has started games everywhere but first base and catcher this season. The bulk of his playing time has come in center field and at second base, and a club in need of keystone help could plug him in there more regularly moving forward.

Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars, but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks around the diamond. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat has cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season. Still, Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.

Eduardo Escobar (33): Escobar has spent the bulk of his time at third base this year, but he’s also logged 140 plate appearances as a second baseman. Teams could consider him an everyday option at either position, but his early-career days as a shortstop seem mostly to be behind him.

Escobar has had a nice season split between the D-Backs and Brewers. He owns a .249/.312/.465 line with 28 home runs and has popped 20-plus long balls in each of the last four full seasons. Escobar’s abbreviated 2020 campaign was a disaster, but that looks to be an outlier now that he’s posted his more typical production this year. He doesn’t draw too many walks, but Escobar’s a switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate who’s a below-average but passable defender at a couple infield positions.

Potential Regulars/High-End Role Players

Josh Harrison (34): Harrison initially looked to be tailing off as he entered his 30’s, but he’s played quite well two years running. Over 545 plate appearances between the Nationals and A’s, he owns a .285/.347/.409 line with a tiny 13.4% strikeout rate. He’s earned Oakland’s regular second base job down the stretch and might have earned himself an everyday role elsewhere this offseason. Harrison doesn’t walk or hit for much power. But he puts the ball in play, can cover multiple positions and would bring a respected veteran presence to a clubhouse.

Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie bounced back from a pair of lost seasons with the Mets to stay mostly healthy this year with the A’s. The veteran had an exactly league average .245/.318/.398 line in 512 plate appearances, split almost evenly between second base and designated hitter. His days as a regular look to be behind him, but Lowrie still gives teams a solid at-bat when healthy.

Donovan Solano (34): A light-hitting defensive specialist during his early days with the Marlins, Solano bounced around the minors for a few seasons before making it back to the bigs with the Giants in 2019. He’s been surprisingly productive ever since, posting three straight above-average hitting seasons by measure of wRC+. There’s a lot going against Solano; he doesn’t walk much or hit for power, and he’s been limited to almost exclusively playing second base. That makes him something of an imperfect roster fit, but he’s done nothing but hit over the past few years. He makes a lot of contact and owns the league’s third-highest line drive rate (minimum 500 plate appearances) going back to 2019. Teams will be wary of a player who is so reliant on ball-in-play results for his production, but Solano at least looks like a high-end role player who’ll give you good at-bats off the bench — particularly if leveraged against left-handed pitching (.325/.364/.472 in 306 PA against southpaws with the Giants).

Utility Types Who Can Handle The Middle Infield

• Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s a capable glove-first utilityman. He’s worked in a reserve capacity for essentially his entire career, posting decent strikeout and walk numbers with little power.
• Matt Duffy (31): Duffy has had a decent season bouncing around the diamond for the Cubs. He makes contact, uses the whole field and hits a solid number of line drives. Duffy had to settle for a minor league pact after not appearing in the majors last season, but his .275/.346/.370 line over 295 plate appearances could be enough to land a guaranteed big league job this time around.
• Alcides Escobar (35): Escobar hadn’t played in the majors for three years before being called upon by a Nationals team dealing with a series of injuries. He’s held up surprisingly well upon being thrust into an everyday role, hitting .281/.329/.390 over 321 plate appearances and covering both middle infield positions. Escobar’s offense is still entirely dependent on hitting for a high batting average and he’s probably miscast as an everyday player, at least for teams with contending aspirations. But Escobar looks to have done enough to land a guaranteed big league deal this winter, something that seemed improbable just a few months back.
• Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. Garcia doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
• Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He’s popped three homers in 28 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only owns a .250 OBP in his second stint as an Astro so far. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.
• Jordy Mercer (35): Mercer missed a good chunk of the year due to injury after earning a season-opening roster spot with the Nats in Spring Training. The former Pirates’ shortstop hit for a decent average and bounced around the diamond, but his overall .262/.319/.346 line might not be enough to earn a major league deal.
• Chris Owings (30): Owings posted huge numbers in 50 plate appearances with the Rockies this year but missed the majority of the campaign due to thumb injuries. The former Diamondback runs well and can play anywhere except catcher, but he’s a .243/.288/.372 career hitter despite playing almost exclusively in offense-friendly home ballparks.
• Joe Panik (31): Panik looks to be in minor league deal range thanks to a .203/.263/.281 line split between the Blue Jays and Marlins this season. The left-handed hitter was a strong regular early in his career with the Giants, combining elite bat-to-ball skills, patience and defense at second base. But his impact on contact has evaporated in recent seasons, so while he still tough to strike out, Panik has posted well below-average numbers in four consecutive years.
• Eric Sogard (35): Sogard hasn’t latched on elsewhere since being released by the Cubs in July. He stumbled to a .249/.283/.314 showing over 180 plate appearances with the North Siders, and that was marginally better than his work the year prior in Milwaukee. Sogard’s a quality defensive second baseman who has shown some signs of life at the plate in the past, but he’s squarely in minor league deal territory after back-to-back very poor seasons.
• Jonathan Villar (31): Villar has had a nice season with the Mets, bouncing back from a disappointing 2020 to hit .249/.323/.420. That’s slightly above-average hitting, and the former stolen base champ continues to provide additional value on the basepaths. Villar’s not a great defender anywhere but he’s capable of playing throughout the infield and has a bit of outfield experience. It’s possible he’s done enough this year to earn an everyday job somewhere, although it seems likelier first-division clubs would see him as a high-end insurance option off the bench.

Players With 2022 Options

César Hernández, White Sox, $6MM club option (no buyout): Generally a high-contact, low-impact hitter, Hernández has bizarrely morphed into a low-OBP power bat this year. The switch-hitter has easily set career marks in home runs (21) and ISO (.155) but it’s come with personal lows in batting average (.228) and on-base percentage (.304). Hernández still works the count and makes a lot of contact, and it doesn’t seem as if he’s completely revamped his approach. He’s just not hitting as many line drives as he usually does, resulting in a career-worst .262 batting average on balls in play.

Exercising a $6MM option on Hernández wouldn’t be outlandish. He’s a generally steady player who combines league average offense with solid glove work (although advanced metrics are split on his defense this season). But his bottom line production — .228/.304/.383, 89 wRC+ — is his worst in six seasons, and he’s had a dreadful couple months in Chicago followed a solid start to the season with Cleveland. Those factors could lead the ChiSox to let him go, particularly since his contract with the Indians didn’t contain any sort of buyout provision, but Hernández wouldn’t have much of a problem finding a job elsewhere in that instance.

Wilmer Flores, Giants, $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout): Flores has roughly the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time since signing with San Francisco over the 2019-20 offseason. He’s hitting .262/.325/.472 in that time, showing power and quality bat-to-ball skills. Flores can play multiple positions and has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching. For a high-payroll club, the $3.5MM option looks like an easy yes.

Jurickson Profar, Padres, can opt out of remaining two years and $14MM: Profar surprisingly landed a three-year, $21MM guarantee from the Padres last winter on the heels of a strong 2020 showing. He hasn’t managed to follow-up on that success, though, hitting just .227/.331/.324 through 401 plate appearances. It’s hard to envision Profar opting out after this season, particularly since his contract allows him to opt out at the end of next year too. Most likely, the 29-year-old returns to San Diego in hopes of a bounceback. If that happens, he can forgo the final guaranteed year of his deal and test free agency next winter.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, $18.5MM club option ($2MM buyout): Carpenter’s option is a lock to be bought out. A bit of a late-bloomer, Carpenter found his stride in his late-20’s and kicked off a seven-year run from 2012-18 as one of the game’s better offensive players. His work at the plate has fallen substantially since then, particularly over the past two seasons. With a .178/.314/.297 line since the start of 2020, Carpenter might be looking at minor league offers this winter. The 35-year-old is planning on giving it another go though.

We’ve already previewed a few different positions in this year’s free-agent market, beginning with catcher and first base. Third base is up next, and I’ll note in advance that there are of course quite a few notable shortstops who could conceivably be viewed as fits at the hot corner for teams in need. Any from the Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story ranks could surely be viewed as a candidate to slide over to third base — Semien moved from shortstop to second base in free agency last winter, after all — but they’ll all be highlighted in more depth in our look at the shortstop market.

Here’s a look at the offseason collection of third base options…

Everyday Options

Kris Bryant (30 years old next season): The clear top of this year’s class, Bryant figures to command one of the largest contracts of any free agent this winter. The former No. 2 overall draft pick, Rookie of the Year, and MVP has put a dismal 2020 showing in the rear-view mirror, bouncing back with a strong .268/.356/.496 batting line in 556 plate appearances between the Cubs and the Giants. He’s connected on 25 home runs and 32 doubles while significantly improving upon last year’s poor strikeout and walk rates.

Bryant has been a very, very good hitter — about 30 percent better than league average, per wRC+ — in three of the past four seasons. He’s a true middle-of-the-order hitter, but he’s never fully matched his brilliant 2016-17 production, when he was nearly 50 percent better than the average hitter. Agent Scott Boras will surely push Bryant as an option at either infield corner and in any of the three outfield spots, championing his client’s defensive versatility and the value that brings to a suitor. There’s plenty of truth to that, honestly, but it should also be noted that Bryant isn’t exactly a plus defender at all of those positions, either. Bryant won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer after being traded midseason.

Eduardo Escobar (33): A recent slump has tanked Escobar’s overall batting line a bit, but he’s a switch-hitter with above-average offense, plenty of pop in his bat and decent defensive marks at both third base and second base over the past few seasons. Escobar is two long balls shy of his second 30-homer season in the past three years. The 2020 season was an immense struggle for him, but Escobar has been a quality bat in the past three full-length seasons. He’s walking at a career-best 8.3 percent clip in 2021, including a 10.7 percent mark since being traded from Arizona to Milwaukee. Escobar has played plenty of shortstop in his career but has just two innings there since 2018. He’ll most likely be viewed as a pure third baseman/second baseman.

Utility Infielders with Experience at Third

• Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s .246/.327/.392 line through 197 plate appearances isn’t too far from his career mark. He’s a glove-first, switch-hitting infielder with decent defensive marks around the diamond.
• Asdrubal Cabrera (36): Cabrera has gone hitless since being picked up by the Reds but was only a bit worse than the league average prior to that point. He’s a veteran bench bat who can handle first base and second base as well.
• Leury Garcia (31): Garcia has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. Garcia doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
• Marwin Gonzalez (33): Gonzalez hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He’s clubbed three homers in 23 plate appearances since re-signing in Houston, but he’s still hitting just .182 overall there. Gonzalez posted a career year in 2017, and his bat has steadily declined since.
• Josh Harrison (34): It’s certainly feasible that Harrison has hit his way into an everyday job somewhere next season after batting .285/.348/.414 in his past 624 plate appearances. Contending clubs might view him as more of a versatile super-utility player, but the 34-year-old has put an ugly 2019 season behind him.
• Brock Holt (34): Holt hasn’t hit much since a nice 2018-19 run with the Red Sox, but he can play just about anywhere on the diamond. He’s played third base near-exclusively with the Rangers in 2021 (and graded well there), but Holt has experience at the three other infield positions and in all three outfield spots.
• Brad Miller (32): Miller walks a lot, strikes out a lot and hits for power. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type who can play all over the field but doesn’t have great defensive ratings anywhere. The Phils have used him mostly at first base, but he’s also played third, second and corner outfield in 2021 while hitting .230/.320/.463 with 19 big flies.
• Chris Owings (30): Owings posted a huge .326/.420/.628 line this year, but it came in just 50 plate appearances and is miles from his tepid career slash line of .243/.288/.372. Owings can play pretty much anywhere but catcher and has strong defensive marks at second base. His .284 OBP over his past 2000 MLB plate appearances, however, hinders his value.
• Joe Panik (31): An elite defender at second base for much of his career, Panik played 226 innings at third this season and posted a brutal -9 Defensive Runs Saved mark. He draws his walks and is tough to strike out, but he’s also hitting just .236/.305/.319 since 2018.
• Eric Sogard (36): Sogard popped a career-high 13 homers in the juiced-ball 2019 season but followed it up with a .232/.282/.299 slash in 2020-21. He’s a good defender at second without much offensive upside.
• Jonathan Villar (31): Like Harrison, Villar has hit well enough this season that he could easily land an everyday role next year. Some clubs may view him as more of a utility player, but with a .254/.327/.429 batting line, 18 homers and 13 steals under his belt, Villar will get a big league deal whether he’s locked in at one position or bouncing around as needed.

Corner-Only/Platoon Bats

• Maikel Franco (29): Franco is in minor league deal territory after being released by the Orioles on the heels of a .210/.253/.355 performance (403 plate appearances). The former top prospect had a decent showing with the 2020 Royals but has been well below-average dating back to 2016.
• Todd Frazier (36): Frazier went just 3-for-35 before being released by the Pirates and joining the U.S. Olympic team. He smacked 21 home runs as recently as 2019 with the Mets and had a huge Spring Training in 2021, but his output during the 2020-21 seasons was well below his career standards.
• Jake Lamb (31): A productive everyday third baseman with the D-Backs at his 2016-17 peak, Lamb hasn’t been the same since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2018. He’s bounced around between a few teams in journeyman fashion, splitting this season with the White Sox and Blue Jays before being designated for assignment by Toronto yesterday. The left-handed hitter owns a .194/.306/.368 line in 170 plate appearances between the two clubs this season.
• Pablo Sandoval (35): The Panda’s resurgence with the 2019 Giants was a fun story, but he’s batted just .197/.294/.299 in 180 plate appearances between the Giants and Braves since that time. The Indians acquired him as a financial counterbalance in the deadline trade that sent Eddie Rosario to Atlanta, but Cleveland released Sandoval that same day.
• Travis Shaw (32): Shaw’s Milwaukee reunion didn’t work, as he posted just a .191/.279/.337 line there before being cut loose. His return to the Red Sox, however, has been excellent: .250/.325/.583 through 41 plate appearances. It’s a small sample but still a much-needed sign of life in his bat.
• Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Tsutsugo’s been limited to first base and the corner outfield this season, but he started eleven games at the hot corner with Tampa Bay last season. The left-handed hitter underwhelmed with the Rays after a ten-year NPB career as one of Japan’s most fearsome power hitters. Cut loose by both Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, Tsutsugo latched on with the Pirates a month ago. He’s doing his best to put his past couple stints behind him, mashing at a .311/.394/.678 clip with eight homers in 104 plate appearances in Pittsburgh. It’s a very small sample of big league productivity, but combined with Tsutsugo’s strong NPB track record, makes him an interesting low-cost flier.

Players with 2022 Options

Kyle Seager, Mariners, $20MM club option ($3MM buyout): The Mariners’ call on Seager will be one of the more interesting option decisions a team has to make this offseason. He’s hitting a personal-worst .215 with the second-lowest OBP of his career (.292). But Seager has popped 35 home runs, bringing his overall batting line to slightly above the league average. He’s still a good defender at the hot corner and a career-long Mariner who’s been a respected member of the franchise for more than a decade. $17MM isn’t an insignificant sum, but Seattle will enter the offseason with plenty of payroll flexibility. This one feels it could go in either direction, and Seager would jump up alongside Escobar at the top of the non-Bryant market at the position if he’s bought out.

Jose Ramirez, Indians, $11MM club option ($2MM buyout): There won’t be many easier decisions for a team this winter than there is for the Cleveland front office on Ramirez’s fairly cheap option. It’s an absolute bargain for one of the best players in the sport.

Wilmer Flores, Giants, $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout): Flores has roughly the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time since signing with San Francisco over the 2019-20 offseason. He’s hitting .261/.323/.472 in that time, showing power and quality bat-to-ball skills. Flores can play multiple positions and has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching. For a high-payroll club, the $3.5MM option looks like an easy yes.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, $18.5MM club option ($2MM buyout): Carpenter’s option is a lock to be bought out. A bit of a late-bloomer, Carpenter found his stride in his late-20’s and kicked off a seven-year run from 2012-18 as one of the game’s better offensive players. His work at the plate has fallen substantially since then, particularly over the past two seasons. With a .180/.316/.299 line since the start of 2020, Carpenter might be looking at minor league offers this winter. The 35-year-old is planning on giving it another go though.

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals, opt-out clause (five years, $164MM remaining): Arenado has said on multiple occasions that he plans to forgo his opt-out clause and remain with the Cardinals long-term. Were he to unexpectedly change course, he’d be among the top names on the entire free-agent market, but that seems unlikely.

We’ve reached the point of the season where roughly half the league is closing the book on 2021 postseason hopes and beginning to look toward the future. With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at this year’s upcoming free-agent class in some more depth. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald kicked things off over the weekend by previewing the upcoming class of catchers, and we’ll move onto first base today.

Before diving in, it’s worth briefly highlighting a few notable free agents who could technically be considered options at first base but will likely line up elsewhere. Kris Bryant has 212 innings at the position, including 92 this year. Eduardo Escobar had never played there prior to being acquired by the Brewers, but Milwaukee has given him 80 innings at first. The Red Sox have given Kyle Schwarber 35 frames at first base since acquiring him. Mark Canha played 537 innings there for the A’s back in 2015 but has just 203 innings there since — and only 11 in 2020-21.

It wouldn’t be an outright shock to see any of the bunch signed with the idea of a more permanent move to first base, but for the purposes of this series, they’ll all be discussed at greater length in future position previews.

Everyday Options

Freddie Freeman (32 years old next season): The obvious top name on the market, most onlookers expected that Freeman, the reigning NL MVP, would have signed an extension with the Braves by now. A return to Atlanta still seems the most probable outcome, even though it’s taken longer than anticipated. That said, Freeman is on the cusp of at least entertaining interest from the game’s other 29 clubs. Freeman got out to slow start in 2021 (especially by his lofty standards), batting .195/.326/.407 through his first 31 games. In 116 games since that time, he’s mashed at a .327/.407/.536 rate with 23 home runs, 20 doubles and three triples. By measure of wRC+, Freeman has been at least 32 percent better than the average big league hitter each season dating back to 2013. He just wrapped up an eight-year, $135MM contract, and despite the fact that he’ll play next year at 32 years of age, he has a chance to approach or even exceed that guarantee on a shorter deal this time around. Freeman is a no-doubt qualifying offer recipient, barring an extension between now and the point at which QOs are due.

Anthony Rizzo (32): Rizzo’s bat has dropped off since his 2014-19 peak, though he’s been more productive in 2021 than he was in a career-worst 2020 season. He’s walking at a solid but still-diminished 9.6 percent clip and is still a tough strikeout at 15 percent — albeit not as tough as he once was. Rizzo has seen 13.4 percent of his fly-balls go for home runs this year — his lowest mark since 2013. Overall, he’s batting .249/.345/.439 — good for a 112 wRC+ (or 12 percent better than league-average production). Rizzo reportedly rejected a five-year, $70MM extension offer from the Cubs back in Spring Training and is now poised to reach the open market for the first time in his career. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded from the Cubs to the Yankees midseason.

Brandon Belt (34): Belt’s bat looked to be on the decline from 2018-19, but he’s been better than ever from 2020-21. Over his past 142 games/531 plate appearances, Belt is raking at a .276/.384/.580 clip with 35 long balls, 26 doubles and three triples. He’s sporting a career-worst 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 2021, but he’s also connected on a career-high 26 home runs while maintaining a characteristically strong 12.9 percent walk rate. Belt entered the 2020 season with a career 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 9.8 percent barrel rate, per Statcast. In 2020-21, those numbers jumped to 89.7 mph and 16.8 percent, respectively. He’s a qualifying offer candidate himself, although not a slam-dunk to the extent of Freeman.

C.J. Cron (32): Colorado’s minor league deal for Cron paid off nicely, and while the team opted against moving him at the deadline (as was the case with nearly every Rockies trade chip), both sides have expressed interest in extending the relationship. It’s easy to see why the Rox would want to keep Cron around after he’s posted a .267/.366/.520 batting line with 27 long balls — just three off his career-best mark from 2018. As usual, Cron has crushed lefties and been solid against righties. He’s been more productive at Coors Field than on the road, but Cron has always been a better hitter at home and has been productive in the past with several other clubs. Perhaps most encouraging is that after walking at a 5.5 percent clip through his first 673 MLB games, Cron has walked at a 12.1 percent rate in 547 plate appearances dating back to his injury-shortened 2020 season. Cron’s prior OBP woes have contributed to him effectively being non-tendered on a couple of occasions, but his newfound plate discipline should serve him well in free agency. It’d be a surprise for the Rockies to issue a QO, but they march to the beat of their own drum, to say the least.

Utility Players and Platoon Bats

• Asdrubal Cabrera (36): Cabrera has been used exclusively at the infield corners since 2020, with the exception of a single inning at shortstop in Arizona this year, but he played second regularly as recently as 2018-19. The veteran switch-hitter has surprisingly gone hitless in 22 plate appearances since being claimed by the Reds, but he batted .244/.324/.392 in 321 plate appearances with the D-backs earlier this year.
• Todd Frazier (36): Frazier spent some time with the Pirates early in 2021 but went just 3-for-35 before being released. He served as the starting third baseman for Team USA in the Olympics this year. Frazier smacked 21 home runs as recently as 2019 with the Mets and had a huge Spring Training in 2021, but his output during the 2020-21 seasons was well below his career standards.
• Marwin Gonzalez (33): Released by the Red Sox after an ugly .202/.281/.285 showing in 271 plate appearances, Gonzalez has returned to Houston and connected on more homers (three) in 22 plate appearances than he hit during his entire time with Boston (two). He’s batted just .239/.309/.380 in 1507 plate appearances since a career year with the 2017 Astros.
• Jake Lamb (31): Lamb briefly turned back the clock in a late-season stint with the A’s in 2020, hitting .267/.327/.566 with three homers in 49 plate appearances. He’s hitting just .200/.313/.379 in 166 tries this season, however, and hasn’t looked the same since shoulder surgery derailed his career. Lamb hit .248/.345/.498 with 59 homers from 2016-17 with the D-backs, but it’s been a long time now since he was consistently productive.
• Brad Miller (32): Miller has played all four corner positions and second base with the Phillies this year while batting .228/.320/.462 with 19 homers in 344 plate appearances. It’s his third straight year with above-average OPS+ and wRC+ marks. He strikes out too often to hit for a particularly high average, but Miller has power and can play nearly anywhere on the diamond, making him a nice bench piece for any contender.
• Mitch Moreland (36): Moreland has hit for some power but is in the midst of his worst offensive campaign since 2016. He’s batted .225/.286/.415 in Oakland — a large departure from the .265/.342/.551 output he posted through 152 plate appearances in 2020. Moreland has a track record of solid defensive marks at first base, but the A’s have used him primarily as a designated hitter in 2021. Moreland’s longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching have continued in 2021.
• Albert Pujols (42): It feels odd to sandwich a future Hall of Famer in the middle of this list. Pujols has been a better hitter with the Dodgers than he was with the Angels, but his overall output is still only a bit above-average. He’s absolutely tattooing lefties at a .305/.348/.633 clip but has posted an awful .175/.230/.263 slash against right-handed pitching. He’d be helped out substantially if the NL implements the DH, but he looks primarily like a bench bat/part-time DH against southpaws at this point.
• Pablo Sandoval (35): The Panda’s resurgence with the 2019 Giants was a fun story, but he’s batted just .197/.294/.299 in 180 plate appearances between the Giants and Braves since that time. The Indians acquired him as a financial counterbalance in the deadline trade that sent Eddie Rosario to Atlanta, but Cleveland released Sandoval that same day.
• Danny Santana (31): Santana is batting just .181/.252/.345 in 127 plate appearances. He enjoyed big offensive performances as a rookie with the Twins in 2013 and slugged 28 homers for the Rangers in 2019 — but he’s never managed a wRC+ better than 60 in any of his other six big league seasons. It’s been a bizarre career for Santana, who has obvious power and speed, but is a career .255/.296/.413 hitter (85 wRC+).
• Travis Shaw (32): Shaw’s Milwaukee reunion didn’t work out too well, has posted just a .191/.279/.337 line there before being cut loose. His second reunion, a return to the Red Sox, has been excellent. It’s only 40 plate appearances, but Shaw has hit .257/.333/.600 with three round-trippers. He hasn’t had an above-average full season since 2018, but this late surge with the Sox ought to intrigue a few clubs.
• Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Shaw’s late rebound might be impressive, but it’s got nothing on Tsutsugo. The former NPB star has erupted with a .306/.394/.682 showing in 99 plate appearances since joining the Pirates. It doesn’t undo the disappointing production he delivered with the Rays and Dodgers from 2020-21, but it’s certainly intriguing given that he was one of Japan’s top power hitters not long ago. If you’re looking for a low-cost upside play at first or in the outfield corners, Tsutsugo is an interesting option.
• Ryan Zimmerman (37): Mr. National is still hitting for power, with 14 dingers in 258 plate appearances, but his .244/.283/.475 slash pales in comparison to his peak. If he comes back for a 17th big league season, one would imagine it’d only be to return to the Nats.

Players with 2022 Options

Yuli Gurriel (38): I’ll be the first to admit that I scratched my head when the Astros jumped the market to extend Gurriel just as the postseason was about to begin in 2020. That one-year extension, which contains a club option for 2022, couldn’t have gone any better. Last year’s disappointing .232/.274/.384 slash is a distant memory, and with Gurriel turning in a huge .317/.383/.463 showing in 2021, next year’s $8MM option is a no-brainer to be picked up.

Wilmer Flores (30): Flores is hitting .259/.321/.470 in 617 plate appearances since signing with the Giants. He can play first, second and third base competently, and he mashes left-handed pitching. A $3.5MM club option should be an easy “yes” for the Giants.

Matt Carpenter (36): Carpenter’s option is every bit as easy a call as the other two in this section — albeit for the opposite reason. His $18.5MM club option comes with a $2MM buyout, and the Cards are sure to take the buyout after the former MVP candidate has batted just .180/.314/.299 over the past two seasons. Carpenter recently said he hopes to continue playing, but it might be time for a fresh start elsewhere for the lifelong Cardinal.

Jurickson Profar (29): The Padres’ three-year, $21MM deal for Profar was fairly surprising even before the revelation that the contract came with a pair of opt-out clauses. Profar has batted just .235/.335/.336 in 381 plate appearances this year, making it quite difficult to see him turning down a guaranteed two years and $14MM from the Friars. That’s especially true given that he could always pocket next year’s $6.5MM salary and opt out post-2022 if he has a big season.

There are now just two weeks remaining in the 2021 regular season, and while the immediate focus is on the playoff races, a potentially eventful offseason is waiting just over the horizon. There are a lot of unknowns at the moment, especially with the elephant in the room: the expiring collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA expires on December 1st, and there are many questions about what will come after that, especially with regard to service time, luxury tax, qualifying offers, and many other issues.

So, which players will be navigating these uncharted waters? Let’s take a look, starting with the catchers. (Players’ age for the 2021 season is listed in parentheses.)

Everyday Options

• Yan Gomes (34): Gomes is probably the top of the class, which should tell you how weak this year’s catching market is as a whole. That’s not to take anything away from Gomes, who is having another solid season. But there won’t be any massive catcher contracts given out this year like there were last year for J.T. Realmuto and James McCann. Gomes was last on the market after helping the Nationals win the World Series in 2019. The Nats re-signed him to a two-year, $10MM deal and then traded him to Oakland at this year’s deadline. On the season as a whole, he’s hitting .252/.295/.425, for a wRC+ of 91 and 1.2 fWAR. Gomes has been fairly reliable health-wise, having only spent about three weeks on the IL over the past five years, missing most of July 2021 with an oblique strain.
• Manny Pina (34): Pina has been playing backup to Omar Narvaez in Milwaukee this season but has done well enough that some club could view him as an everyday option, as he’s having a solid season. In 67 games, he’s hitting .201/.312/.459, for a wRC+ of 106. His walk and strikeout rates have both improved compared to recent seasons as well, suggesting there may be something sustainable there. Combined with his quality glovework, he’s been worth 1.6 fWAR on the year. Since having his contract selected by the Brewers in August of 2016, he is hitting .248/.318/.417, for a wRC+ of 94.

Backup/Timeshare Candidates

• Robinson Chirinos (38): Chirinos had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees in the most recent offseason. After being released in July, he was signed to a major league deal by the Cubs. Since then, he’s been a solid backup/bench contributor, slashing .232/.330/.463 over 100 plate appearances. Apart from an awful showing in the shortened 2020 season, Chirinos has a wRC+ over 100 every year from 2015-2021.
• Sandy Leon (33): Leon signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected April 21st. Since then, he’s appeared in 77 games, garnering 209 plate appearances with a slash line of .187/.236/.259. His wRC+ of 40 would be his fifth straight year under 70 in that department.
• Jeff Mathis (39): Mathis has long had a reputation as a defensive specialist and has appeared in the majors in each of the past 17 years, despite never providing much with the bat. He got into three games with Atlanta this season before being designated for assignment in May and hasn’t played since.
• Wilson Ramos (34): Ramos was signed by the Tigers in the winter to a one-year, $2MM contract. In 35 games, he put up a tepid line of .200/.238/.392, a wRC+ of 66. He was eventually released and caught on with Cleveland, where he starting hitting a little bit better. But after just nine games, he tore the ACL and sprained the MCL in his right knee, ending his season. Ramos isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.
• Austin Romine (33): Romine, alongside the aforementioned Chirinos, has been backing up Willson Contreras for the Cubs. Romine missed a good chunk of the season with a wrist injury and has only gotten into 21 games this year and has barely hit in that small sample, slashing .188/.188/271. However, it hasn’t been too long since he was last productive, as he had solid seasons for the Yankees in both 2018 and 2019. Over those two years, he got into 150 games and hit .262/.302/.428, for a wRC+ of 94. But after a down year in 2020 and an injury-marred 2021, he’ll probably have to settle for a minor league deal in the coming offseason.
• Kurt Suzuki (38): Suzuki had four straight solid years at the plate from 2017 to 2020, having his wRC+ above 100 in each of those seasons. Overall, in that timeframe, he hit .272/.337/.475 for a wRC+ of 111. But after signing a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Angels in January, it’s been a disappointing campaign for him. He’s hitting .221/.285/.337 for a wRC+ of 73 and has largely served as a backup to Max Stassi.

Players with Contractual Options

• Tucker Barnhart, $7.5MM club option with $500K buyout: Barnhart will be turning 31 in January and is about to finish the guaranteed portion of the extension he signed with the Reds before the 2018 season. Since that time, he has provided fairly consistent production, combining an adequate bat with solid defense. From 2018 to 2020, he hit .237/.324/.376, wRC+ of 85. In 2021, he’s taken his offense up a notch, slashing .263/.336/.397 for a wRC+ of 97, producing 1.9 fWAR. The club will now have to decide if that decent production is worth $7.5MM. (There are escalators that could take the option up to $9MM, though the thresholds aren’t publicly known.) The solid rookie season of Tyler Stephenson could lead the Reds to consider Barnhart expendable, which would add another everyday option to the market.
• Roberto Perez, $7MM club option with $450K buyout: Perez had a $5.5MM option picked up for the 2021 season despite a down year in 2020, though it hasn’t worked out for the soon-to-be Guardians. Due to injuries, Perez has only played 36 games this year and has hit a meager .139/.250/.313. His last full season, 2019, was quite good, however, as he hit .239/.321/.452 for a wRC+ of 99. If Cleveland thinks he can get back into that form, he’d be well worth $7MM, but it’s more likely the always-frugal club just cuts him loose. The 33-year-old could make for an interesting buy-low, bounceback candidate.
• Buster Posey, $22MM club option with $3MM buyout: In 2019, it was certainly starting to seem that this option was a lock to be bought out. Posey was 32 years old and saw his wRC+ drop below 100 for the first time, outside of a cup of coffee as a 22-year-old. However, sitting out the 2020 season seems to have done wonders for him, as he’s bounced back tremendously, hitting .299/.389/.503. His wRC+ of 142 is the highest since mark he’s had since 2014, helping the Giants outpace the most optimistic predictions for 2021, launching them ahead of the consensus favourite Dodgers to the top of the NL West. It now seems a no-brainer for the Giants to pick up the option and keep Buster around for his age-35 season.
• Christian Vazquez (31): Vazquez is within striking distance of increasing the value of his option. Originally valued at $7MM with a buyout of $250K as part of the extension he signed in 2018, the option would increase to $8MM if Vazquez reached 502 plate appearances in each of 2020 and 2021. In the shortened 2020 campaign, Vazquez logged 189 plate appearances. Due to the shortened season, all thresholds were prorated by 2.7, meaning those 189 plate appearances counted for 510. This year, he’s at 468 for the season, meaning he’d need 34 more plate appearances in Boston’s final 11 games to get that extra million onto the option. All that said, it’s a minor difference, and Vazquez seems worth the price, despite a slightly mediocre season. He’s hitting .263/.315/.353 on the year, a wRC+ of 81. But with his solid defense, he’s still been worth 0.7 fWAR so far this year. And over 2019 and 2020, he hit .278/.327/.472, producing a wRC+ of 105 accrued 4.9 fWAR.
• Mike Zunino, $7MM club option with $1MM buyout: When the Rays re-signed Zunino in December, the club option was valued at $4MM, with escalators based on games played. Zunino would have to play 100 games to max out the value at $7MM, something he’s already done. The reason the Rays have played him so much is because he’s been excellent. Zunino strikes out a lot and doesn’t hit for a high batting average, but more than makes up for it with his power. His 31 homers on the year have helped him produce a slash line of .201/.290/.549 for a wRC+ of 127. Combined with his quality defense, that adds up to 3.9 fWAR, which is fourth in the majors among catchers. You can never be certain of these things with a hyper-budget-conscious organization like the Rays, but Zunino’s option seems all but guaranteed to be picked up.