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Who Will Sign Kris Bryant?

By | at January 16, 2022 2:29pm CDT

Kris Bryant had a rough showing in 2020, with injuries limiting him to 34 games and batting line of .206/.293/.351 for a wRC+ of 75. However, that is the clear outlier on his resume, as his six other seasons have seen him put up a wRC+ of at least 123. Overall, in 884 games, his line is .278/.353/.481, 134 wRC+.

Bryant has been primarily a third baseman in his career, but has diversified his defensive portfolio in recent seasons. In 2021, he still played 55 games at third, but also 48 games in left field, 39 in right, 19 in center, 12 at first base and one at shortstop. With that defensive versatility, it’s possible to fit him into just about any team’s lineup puzzle.

However, some teams won’t be serious contenders for Bryant’s services for financial reasons. MLBTR predicted Bryant to get a contract of $160MM over six years. Some teams have never given a free agent a contract close to that in franchise history, such as the Athletics, Guardians, Pirates and Royals. The Rays made an exception for Wander Franco but don’t seem likely to give out another huge deal this year, even though they considered trading for him last year. The Orioles and Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to throw that kind of money around given the state of their current rosters. The Reds considered acquiring Bryant at last year’s deadline but now seem like they want to subtract payroll rather than adding. Let’s take a look at some of the other options.

Teams With Known Interest

  • Mariners — The Mariners tried to trade for Bryant last year and have been connected to him in free agency. With Kyle Seager reaching free agency and eventually retiring, they have a vacancy at third base for the first time in years. Abraham Toro would be the favorite for now, but he could also platoon at second with Adam Frazier or serve a utility role. They also have an uncertain outfield mix, with a great many talented youngsters on hand, though they all still come with varying degrees of uncertainty. After a 90-win season, they’ve been aggressive in trying to load up for 2022, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to the squad.
  • Rockies — The Rockies have been fairly quiet so far this offseason, letting Jon Gray go to the Rangers and seemingly content to let Trevor Story eventually depart as well. However, one move they’ve considered is a pursuit of Bryant. If they were to put Bryant at third, Ryan McMahon could theoretically slide to second base with Brendan Rodgers playing shortstop. If they want Bryant in the outfield, they have lots of room there, with none of Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard, Connor Joe or Raimel Tapia being a real obstacle. The addition of the DH in the NL would make the fit even easier.
  • Mets — The Mets had discussions about acquiring Bryant at the deadline last year and have been connected to him in free agency. After spending big on Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, it’s possible the Mets are done with throwing huge checks around. Although now that they’ve pushed their 2022 payroll up to $263MM, it’s unclear if they have any limitations at all, meaning nothing can be ruled out completely.
  • Angels — The Angels were listed among Bryant’s suitors before the lockout. With Anthony Rendon pencilled into third base, Bryant would likely need to play the outfield as long as Rendon is healthy and in the lineup. Mike Trout would take another outfield slot, with Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell and Justin Upton on hand as options as well. The Angels have serious questions about their middle infield, however, meaning they should have higher priorities than Bryant.
  • Padres — Similar to the Angels, the Padres were connected to Bryant before the lockout, despite having an incumbent third baseman in Manny Machado. He could certainly help in the outfield, however, as he’d be a clear upgrade to their current options of Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar. The question will be how much money they have to spend, as they ran a franchise record payroll of $174MM in 2021 and are already set to start 2022 just under $200MM.
  • Phillies — The Phillies were also rumored to be interested in Bryant before the lockout, which makes sense given their needs. The club has some big question marks in the outfield, outside of Bryce Harper. Bryant could also act as an insurance policy if third baseman Alec Bohm continues to struggle after a disappointing 2021 season.
  • Astros — The Astros reportedly checked in Bryant before the deadline, though it’s a bit hard to see the fit on paper. Alex Bregman is slotted in at third, with the club having an outfield/DH rotation of Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick and Jake Myers. Shortstop is their most obvious area of need, making someone like Trevor Story a better theoretical fit.
  • Giants — Bryant would be a logical fit with the Giants, given that they traded for him in 2021. However, they are apparently unlikely to consider nine-figure contracts this offseason, which would seem to rule out a reunion.

Speculative Fits

  • Blue Jays — The Blue Jays could certainly use an infield upgrade to make up for the loss of Marcus Semien. They reportedly made a run at Corey Seager before both he and Semien ended up with the Rangers. They apparently still have spending to do after the lockout, even after adding Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia. If Bryant were to take over at third base, Cavan Biggio could return to his natural position of second base, which Semien nudged him off of. They’ve also been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re open to adding in the outfield as well.
  • Dodgers — The Dodgers re-signed Chris Taylor before the lockout to be their super-utility option and seemingly have bigger needs in the rotation. But given how much they love adding depth, they can’t be completely discounted. 2022 is also potentially the team’s final year with AJ Pollock and Justin Turner. (Pollock has a 2023 player option, while there is a club/vesting option for Turner.) Adding Bryant now would be a way for the Dodgers to prepare for the departure of either.
  • Rangers — The Rangers have already spent huge amounts of money to upgrade their infield, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. With Josh Jung on the way to take over the third base, there’s little room for Bryant on the infield. However, the current outfield of Adolis Garcia, Kole Calhoun, Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak could certainly accommodate him. They’ve been connected to Seiya Suzuki recently, suggesting they are considering a significant outfield addition of some sort.
  • Red Sox — Boston subtracted a big right-handed bat when they traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. Since then, they have been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re looking to replace Renfroe’s bat through free agency. With Bryant in one outfield corner and Alex Verdugo in another, they could have Jarren Duran and Jackie Bradley Jr. competing for the center field job.
  • Yankees — The Yanks have been a sleeping giant so far in this offseason, seemingly pushing major moves until after they could get a look at the new CBA. DJ LeMahieu is the best fit for third base duties at the moment, though he could also defer to Bryant and move over to first base, especially if the club pulls the trigger on a Luke Voit trade. Like the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Yankees were also connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they could also find a way to work Bryant into the outfield mix, perhaps in combination with a Joey Gallo trade.

Long Shots

  • Braves — The staring contest between Freddie Freeman and the Braves was not settled before the lockout. If they can’t work out a deal, Atlanta could always pivot to Bryant to try and make up for the outfield losing Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson. But with Freeman and Bryant likely looking at similar contracts, it seems much more likely they spend that money on the guy who’s been the face of the franchise and just helped them win the World Series.
  • Brewers — Luis Urias had a nice breakout season in 2021 and seems like the favorite for Milwaukee’s third base job, but he can also play second and shortstop, making him a good candidate for a super-utility role. If the NL adds the DH, it would be even easier for him and Bryant to share playing time. However, the Brewers are currently set to run a payroll of $121MM this year, just shy of their franchise record, which was $123 in 2019. Adding the money it would take to sign Bryant doesn’t seem likely.
  • Cardinals — The Cards already have an excellent third baseman in Nolan Arenado, as well as a solid outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar. After the lockout, they’re reportedly going to be focused on upgrading in the bullpen, though the addition of the DH to the NL could make them more interested in another bat.
  • Cubs — Bringing Bryant back to Wrigley would be a lot of fun, but doesn’t seem likely. The club seems to be eschewing lengthy commitments for the short-term. They did make the surprising add of Marcus Stroman, though his deal is only for a maximum of three years and could be even less if he opts out.
  • Marlins — The Marlins are looking for outfield help but it’s hard to see them putting enough cash on the barrel for Bryant. The $53MM guarantee given to Avisail Garcia was the largest of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter era. A few days later, they broke that record with Sandy Alcantara‘s $56MM extension. With Bryant likely to get more than both of those combined, it’s hard to see the Marlins winning the bidding.
  • Nationals — All signs points to the Nats taking a step back in 2022 and giving playing time to younger, cheaper players. After last year’s fire sale, they have lots of payroll space and could theoretically use it on a big signing like Bryant, though it seems like they’ll be holding their cash for at least a year.
  • Tigers — The Tigers have been aggressive so far but may have already made their big moves with Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Another huge contract would be a surprise, though a Bryant-Baez reunion would certainly be a fun one.
  • Twins — The Twins have to do something if they want to bounce back from a nightmare season and compete again in 2022. But they already have a strong lineup and have heavy lifting to do in the rotation.
  • White Sox — The White Sox have their biggest need at second base, making Bryant an imperfect fit. They also ran a franchise record payroll of $129MM in 2021 and are currently slated to demolish that with a projected Opening Day payroll of $180MM for 2022. Adding Bryant into the mix would be a surprise.

Which landing spot makes the most sense to you? Which jersey do you think Bryant will be wearing in 2022?

Where Will Kris Bryant Sign?

  • Mariners 23% (3,142)
  • Phillies 12% (1,596)
  • Mets 12% (1,593)
  • Giants 8% (1,120)
  • Cubs 6% (826)
  • Blue Jays 6% (775)
  • Dodgers 3% (427)
  • Red Sox 3% (424)
  • White Sox 3% (388)
  • Yankees 3% (377)
  • Padres 3% (377)
  • Angels 2% (268)
  • Tigers 2% (256)
  • Brewers 1% (203)
  • Rockies 1% (202)
  • Marlins 1% (197)
  • Nationals 1% (182)
  • Astros 1% (168)
  • Braves 1% (167)
  • Rangers 1% (140)
  • Guardians 1% (131)
  • Cardinals 1% (129)
  • Reds 1% (123)
  • Orioles 1% (120)
  • Twins 1% (102)
  • Pirates 1% (102)
  • Royals 1% (82)
  • A's 1% (79)
  • Rays 1% (70)
  • D-Backs 0% (63)

Total votes: 13,829

(poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

Who’s Blocking Spencer Torkelson?

By | at January 16, 2022 11:58am CDT

In 2019, the Detroit Tigers finished the season with a record of 47-114, easily the worst in the league that year. The silver lining in a season that bad is receiving the first overall selection in the next year’s draft. The Tigers used the first overall pick in the 2020 draft on Spencer Torkelson, a first baseman out of Arizona State University. (At the time, the club announced him as a third baseman, despite him not playing that position in college.)

Torkelson wasn’t able to play any organized ball for the Tigers that year, as the pandemic wiped out all of the minor league seasons, but 2021 was a rocketship ride up the minor league ladder. He started the year in High-A, playing 31 games and mashing at a rate of .312/.440/.569, wRC+ of 171. A promotion to a higher quality of competition in Double-A dampened his production, but only slightly. In 50 games there, he hit .263/.373/.560, for a wRC+ of 148. He was promoted yet again and got into 40 Triple-A games. Although the higher quality of pitching led to a decreased batting average, he still hit for power and drew walks, slashing .238/.350/.531, 129 wRC+. After that, he went to the Arizona Fall League but was sidelined with an ankle injury after just seven games. He is expected to be fully recovered for spring training. He is now considered the #4 prospect in all of baseball by all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs.

After that tremendous showing at all levels, he seems a virtual lock to join the big leagues in 2022, the only questions will be about the date and which position he plays. In college, Torkelson primarily played first base, with a bit of outfield work sprinkled in. But when the Tigers drafted him, they announced him as a third baseman. In 2021, he played first and third somewhat evenly to start the year, with first base taking over as the season wore on. At High-A, he got into 15 games at first and 16 at third, with his Double-A stint featuring 23 at first and 27 at third. But in Triple-A, he played first base in 37 games, none at the hot corner. However, he did get into a couple of games at third base in the Arizona Fall League before the injury.

First base would seem to be the best path to playing time for Torkelson, both because of his greater experience at the position and because of the current makeup of the Tigers’ roster. Jeimer Candelario seems to have locked himself in as the third baseman after a strong pair of seasons with the bat. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit .297/.369/.503 for a wRC+ of 138 over 52 games. Although he played more first base than third that year, he moved across the diamond in 2021, playing 142 games at third and not appearing at first at all. Statcast considered him to be a roughly league-average defender, as he finished the year at -1 Outs Above Average. He also had another good year at the plate, hitting .271/.351/.443, 119 wRC+.

The situation at first base, however, can fit Torkelson into the picture much more easily. The Tigers gave most of the first base playing time to Jonathan Schoop in 2021, as he appeared in 114 games there. But that was Schoop’s first showing at the position, as he had largely been a second baseman prior to that. He even played 38 games at the keystone last year. If Torkelson were to take over at first base, Schoop could slide back to his traditional position at second. That would create a bit of a crowd in the middle infield for the Tigers, as they signed Javier Baez to take over the shortstop position. If Schoop was getting regular playing time at second, there would be little room for younger players like Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes and Zack Short. None of those players have fully cemented themselves as everyday regulars just yet, but for a Tigers team that is looking to emerge from a lengthy rebuild, it should still be a priority to give chances for unproven players to blossom and take a step forward.

One way to help with this crowding would be to rotate these players through the designated hitter slot, giving them a bit of a rest while still getting reps in the batter’s box. However, that raises the question of how many DH at-bats will be going to Miguel Cabrera. While there’s no questioning he’s one of the greatest hitters of his generation, he hasn’t been an above-average hitter over a full season since 2016. His wRC+ dropped to 92 in 2017, then bounced back to 127 in 2018, though injuries cut his season short after just 38 games. In 2019, he dropped just below the league average of 100 again, coming in at 97. He snuck over the line in 2020 with a mark of 103, though that was the pandemic-shortened campaign. In 2021, he dropped down to 92 again.

Up until now, letting the veteran continue to play out his contract and hit career milestones hasn’t been an issue as the team hasn’t been earnestly trying to compete for some time. But push will likely come to shove at some point, as the club has already spent a lot of money this offseason in order to wipe their hands of this lengthy rebuild. Even if they don’t become AL Central favorites right out of the gate in 2022, Cabrera still has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract and will turn 39 in April. After getting 526 plate appearances in 130 games in 2021, how much rope will he get going forward? Is he destined to be squeezed out by younger players and eventually let loose in a similar manner to what happened to Albert Pujols last year? Or at least nudged into the type of bench role that Pujols settled into with the Dodgers? Cabrera is sitting on 2,987 hits and will surely be given the chance to cross the monumental 3,000 barrier, but at a certain point, the team’s desire to compete will clash with their desire for Cabrera to get the proper legacy treatment.

Regardless of how it plays out, the future seems bright for the Tigers. They have a roster with heaps of young talent that showed signs of promise in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Since then, they’ve added Baez,  Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart to try and take them to the next level. With prospects like Torkelson, Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler on the way to help as well, they seem poised to be a fun and competitive team for years to come.

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Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals Who's Blocking

Trade Candidate: Max Kepler

By | at January 15, 2022 10:13pm CDT

Despite a thoroughly disappointing 73-89 season in 2021, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made things clear back in July — the Twins were planning to reload for 2022, not rebuild.  It wasn’t at all a far-fetched expectation, given how Minnesota won the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020, and still had several members of the big-hitting “Bomba Squad” core in place.

In regards to Max Kepler, however, the question heading into next season is whether or not the Twins truly consider him part of that core.  If the answer is no, Kepler stands out as an intriguing trade chip.

An international signing out of Germany in 2009, the Berlin-born Kepler began his pro career at age 17 and slowly made his way up the Twins’ organizational ladder, earning top-60 prospect attention heading into the 2016 season.  That was Kepler’s first year as a big league regular, and he quickly installed himself as Minnesota’s everyday right fielder.  Through three seasons of slightly below-average offense but 56 home runs and solid fielding, the Twins felt comfortable enough to lock Kepler up on a five-year, $35MM extension that also carries a $10MM club option for 2024 (with a $1MM buyout).

That extension started to look like a great move when Kepler delivered 36 homers and a .252/.336/.519 slash line over 596 plate appearances in 2019, earning himself some down-ballot MVP attention for his role in the Twins’ division-winning campaign.  Since that apparent breakout year, however, Kepler’s production has largely fallen back to his 2016-18 form, with some troubling secondary numbers that don’t hint that a turn-around.

Just looking at Kepler’s 2021 Statcast profile, you might wonder…what troubling numbers?  After all, with all those above-average metrics and a .347 xwOBA that was well beyond his .309 wOBA, a case could be made that Kepler was one of last season’s more unlucky players.  However, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noted last August, Kepler hits a lot of pop-ups, a lot of grounders, and is an extreme pull hitter.  As a result, the last two seasons have seen opposing defenses play shifts against Kepler well over 90% of the time, thus keeping his bat largely in check and essentially neutralizing whatever gains he made in 2019.

Since the start of the 2020 season, Kepler has hit .216/.310/.420 with 28 homers over 686 PA, which translates to just about league-average offensive production (99 wRC+, 101 OPS+).  He did miss a little over a month of last season due to a hamstring strain and a case of COVID-19, so it is possible that he could rebound in 2022 with better health and more time to make adjustments against the shift.

As he enters his age-29 season, Kepler might also just be who he is at the plate, with only one true standout season out of his six full years in the majors.  This doesn’t mean he isn’t a useful player, of course, considering that Kepler offers solid speed and baserunning, some power, and a strong glove.  Since the start of the 2016 season, Kepler has +36 Defensive Runs Saved, a +7.2 UZR/150, and +39 Outs Above Average as a right fielder.

Even subtracting his 4.5 fWAR season from 2019 from the mix, Kepler has still been worth 8.2 fWAR over his other five seasons.  That’s not bad return on a relatively modest price tag, and even though Kepler will get more expensive in the latter years of his extension, he is owed only $16.25MM — $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023, plus the potential $1MM buyout of the club option for 2024.  With Buxton a constant injury risk, Kepler at least offers some stability within a Minnesota outfield that will feature two promising but unproven young players in top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in 2022.

Those are the solid arguments for keeping Kepler, and since the Twins do plan to contend next year, trading a cost-controlled veteran member of the lineup would seem like a bit of a surprise move on paper.  On the other hand, dealing Kepler for the right return could be the kind of creative pivot the Twins need to fix some of their other roster holes.

Many of the needs that existed for the Twins at the start of the offseason are still on the to-do list, as apart from extending Buxton and signing Dylan Bundy, it was a pretty quiet winter in the Twin Cities even before the lockout shut everything down.  With Minnesota looking to keep Jorge Polanco at second base, shortstop is still a need, and the Twins will need a lot more than just Bundy to help support a very inexperienced rotation.

Kepler wouldn’t be the first player to overhaul his swing and offensive approach later in his career, so if he can figure out a way to elevate the ball more often and beat the shift, he’ll suddenly be much more of a threat at the plate.  Given how regulating or even banning defensive shifts has been mentioned as a potential rule change by the league, the Twins might want to hang onto Kepler just in case there is some new edict announced to generate more action in the field of play.

As noted earlier, however, it is possible we’ve already seen Kepler’s offensive peak.  Moving him now might be an ideal way for the Twins to still capitalize on his value before any real decline begins.  If another team thinks they can fix Kepler, Minnesota might be willing to let them take him off their hands at the right price.

If being a cost-controlled veteran with a very good glove and at least an okay bat are reasons the Twins may want to keep Kepler, those same reasons would also make him attractive to other teams looking for outfield help.  The Yankees were one team known to be checking in on Kepler prior to the trade deadline, and other teams like the Padres, Guardians, White Sox, Phillies (would Bryce Harper embrace a move to left field?), Reds, Athletics, Red Sox, or Braves all make varying degrees of sense as a trade partner.

Minnesota might not been keen on moving Kepler within the AL Central, and teams like the Reds or A’s are more hypothetical fits since both teams have been mostly focused on cutting payroll this offseason.  As noted, though, Kepler isn’t very pricey, and neither the Reds or A’s have given up hope for contending in 2022 even while trying to trim the budget.  Since both Cincinnati and Oakland have the available pitching that the Twins would covet, some kind of a multi-player package might work — Kepler to the other team, a starting pitcher and perhaps another contract coming to Minnesota, and then some prospects on either side to even things out.

Taking on salary to accommodate a trade usually isn’t the Twins’ style, though it isn’t yet clear how much money the club might have available this winter.  The Twins’ interest in Robbie Ray did hint that they were at least willing to explore some bigger spending, and even hypothetically taking on some money (Shogo Akiyama? Stephen Piscotty?) from the Reds or A’s wouldn’t necessarily represent a huge outlay.

As good of a fit as someone like Kris Bryant might be in Minnesota’s outfield, that kind of big splash could still count as a surprise, so a Kepler replacement is more likely to be an outfielder on a one-year deal at a cheaper overall price than Kepler’s two remaining years.  Someone like Tommy Pham or Andrew McCutchen could theoretically match or better Kepler’s 2021 production, and such a right-handed bat would also make for a smoother fit in the Twins outfield, as Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach are all left-handed hitters.  In terms of in-house righty bats, Brent Rooker is available for platoon duty, and top prospect Austin Martin is on track to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022 if he performs well at Triple-A.

If 2021 was kind of a Murphy’s Law year for the Twins, the team might opt to mostly stand pat with their roster and see how things play out early next season, just in case the situation naturally improves as players stay healthy or bounce back.  That said, such a strategy counts as a risk in an improving AL Central, so some boldness might be required to fix the problems the Twins know exist right now.  Even if trading Kepler might create another question in an outfield already lacking certainty, if Minnesota doesn’t see him as a building block beyond the end of his contract, a trade might be a wiser way for the Twins to bring more answers to their roster as a whole.

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MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Trade Candidate

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

By | at January 15, 2022 11:40am CDT

Simply put: The Tigers are on the rise. They are going to be a popular pick to jump into the field of contenders in 2022 – and for good reason. Though a 77-85 record might not look like a team on the rise, they started the year with an 8-19 month of April and looked downright respectable the rest of the way. Following that disastrous first month, they went 69-66, finishing with their best record since 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

 

The Tigers were one of the game’s most active teams in free agency prior to the lockout. With very little long-term money on the books, and a totally clean ledger after 2023, the Tigers had the leeway and the inclination to add premier talent this winter. Though many expected the Tigers to make a play to reunite Carlos Correa and his former manager A.J. Hinch, the Tigers chose to spread their money around instead.

Javier Baez isn’t the talent that Correa is, but he’s still a monster upgrade over Niko Goodrum, who was designated for assignment and released to free agency. Baez will stabilize the infield defense and provide a fairly significant safety blanket for Detroit’s young starting staff. He’s a mixed bag at the plate,  but he’s coming off a 116 wRC+ season, and if nothing else, he’s an entertainment machine. Even his glove is a little more erratic than his supporters would like to admit, but the Bengals can content themselves with knowing they had more or less a clean slate financially and a massive hole to fill at short.

Shortstop was their biggest hole to fill coming into the offseason, but GM Al Avila made positive headway in filling out the rest of the roster as well. Tucker Barnhart was losing his starting job in Cincinnati, but that’s largely because of Tyler Stephenson‘s offensive upside. Barnhart will set up camp near the bottom of the batting order, and he’s likely to stay there, but that’s not why the Tigers took on the $7.5MM he’ll be owed in 2022. Detroit’s young starting staff could use a veteran hand to guide their pitch selection and game management, and Barnhart’s reputation suggests he’s exactly the guy to do it.

Baez and Barnhart together ought to help create an ecosystem more conducive to run prevention, thereby either increasing the likelihood for success or hurrying the development for Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal. That was likely Detroit’s number one goal this offseason.

Eduardo Rodriguez is another piece of that new-and-improved ecosystem. He steps in for Matthew Boyd and ought to provide consistency to their young rotation. E-Rod’s 4.74 ERA last season is a tad misleading as a .363 BABIP helped bloat the bottom-line run prevention numbers. ERA indicators were more complimentary: 3.32 FIP, 3.65 SIERA were both career-best numbers.

Beyond veteran savvy and life experience, Rodriguez gives the Tigers an innings-eater like their rotation hasn’t had in recent years. His 157 2/3 innings would have led the Tigers, who only had Mize and Skubal finish anywhere near the 150-inning mark. Boyd was solid in his 15 starts, posting 1.4 fWAR and a 3.89 ERA/4.10 FIP, but the Tigers likely figure that E-Rod gives them a better chance of hitting those marks over a full slate. Besides, winning breeds winners, and bringing in someone like Rodriguez can help transform the clubhouse culture into one that expects W’s.

Rodriguez helps, but if the Tigers are truly going to make the leap, it will likely be because Mike, Skubal, and Manning continue their development. Mize made 30 starts but racked up just 1.3 fWAR, in part because he didn’t show much of a propensity for missing bats. Skubal boasted swing-and-miss stuff, but the southpaw was prone to giving up long balls. If Mize, Manning, and Skubal grow up this season, the Tigers will feel pretty good about their run prevention potential. In a nutshell, that’s the biggest what-if of the Tigers’ 2022 season.

The Rodriguez addition was all the more important because Spencer Turnbull remains out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Turnbull appeared to be on the verge of a breakout, but now they’re in wait-and-see mode. The same for Barnhart and Jake Rogers behind the plate.

Tyler Alexander lines up as the fifth starter for now, but the Tigers are likely to explore more starting options when the lockout ends. Rodriguez will more than likely end up as their big-ticket signing on the pitching side, but there are still plenty of veteran rotation arms that can raise the floor of Detroit’s unit.

The bullpen is another area where the Tigers will explore additions after the lockout. Michael Fulmer emerged as a weapon, saving 14 games and tossing 69 2/3 innings over 52 appearances (four starts). It’s a reinvention for Fulmer, but one that can greatly help the team. Beyond the saves, he also earned nine holds and proved himself an invaluable multi-inning firearm for manager A.J. Hinch.

Gregory Soto took on the more traditional closer’s role, but Hinch is not afraid to use the power lefty whenever he needs him most. Soto saved 18 games over 62 appearances with a 3.39 ERA/4.14 FIP. Hinch has also relied on Jose Cisnero out of the pen. The 32-year-old made 67 appearances and posted a 3.65 ERA/4.13 FIP over 61 2/3 innings.

Fulmer, Soto, and Cisnero give Avila a solid starting place when it comes to building out his bullpen, but they could use some more firepower. There are other arms in-house but expect the Tigers to put some work in here when the lockout ends. Bullpen arms might be more amenable to joining Detroit after the work that’s been put into the roster already.

Offensively, exciting times are ahead. The Detroit faithful have enjoyed the benchmark stage of Miguel Cabrera‘s Hall of Fame career, even if the 38-year-old no longer slugs with the authority of his youth. He crossed the 500 home run threshold in 2021, and he’ll get to the 3,000 hit mark early in 2020.

Cabrera might be the best hitter of his generation, and in some ways, it’s been a blessing that the Tigers have been able to line up their rebuilding years with Cabrera’s decline, thereby allowing the organization the difficult decision of when to take Cabrera out of the lineup. Cabrera played in 130 games last year and 57 out of the 60 from 2020’s shortened season. I’d be surprised if he hits 130 games again in 2022, however, as the Tigers will likely start to be a little more judicious with his playing time as they make an earnest effort for contention.

It will be a handing-off-of-the-baton type of season for Cabrera and the Tigers, who together are likely to welcome the top two prospects in Detroit’s system up to the Majors in 2022. Spencer Torkelson is the most obvious side-by-side with Cabrera, as the former number one overall pick is a bat-first corner infield prospect who has a decent chance to end up as a designated hitter eventually. For now, he’ll play first base and only occasionally snipe DH at-bats from Cabrera.

Jeimer Candelario is the third piece of the corner infield puzzle, and he fits nicely between Cabrera and Torkelson as an in-his-prime switch-hitter who only recently locked in his spot on the roster. He’s long been the Tigers third baseman, but for years it seems the former Cubs farmhand was just a placeholder.

Then 2020 happend. Candelario blasted off to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in the shortened season, and while he didn’t continue at that rate last season, he remained solidly above average, posting 3.2 fWAR and a 118 wRC+. He’s still subpar as a defensive third baseman, but now he’ll have Baez flanking him at short, which should help. Candelario and Baez actually began their professional careers together in rookie ball with the Cubs, though Baez rose quickly trough the system, while Candelario was eventually shipped to Detroit with Isaac Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.

Candelario’s long-term future is unclear, but he’s under team control for 2022 and 2023, so it seems likely he’ll stay at the hot corner for now. If Detroit falls out of the race, the Tigers could explore using Candelario as a trade piece. For now, however, his well-rounded bat is a nice cog in Detroit’s lineup. He may not excel in any one area, but he has average power (.172 ISO), a decent eye (10.4 percent walk rate), and the ability to put the ball in play (21.6 percent strikeout rate) together make up an above-average hitter.

Jonathan Schoop fits a similar mold, but with a more eager approach at the plate. Schoop doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s a legitimate plus against lefties and can hold his own otherwise. Schoop may lose some playing time as Torkelson arrives, but like Candelario, he’s a cog in a rapidly improving machine.

Robbie Grossman: same same. Grossman does everything relatively well, but an elite approach at the plate can make him even more valuable. Grossman keeps the line moving, puts up professional at-bats, and he takes his walks (14.6 percent walk rate).

All in all, the Tigers boast a working-class group of veteran bats that should prop up the baseline and give Torkelson and other young players a little bit of extra runway to find their stride.

The key player may be Riley Greene. If he can stick it in center, that will fill another huge hole in Detroit’s lineup. It’s not easy to find a centerfielder these days, making his development all the more key. Of course, Akil Baddoo may have beat him to the punch. Hinch protected the Rule 5 pick with match-ups in 2021, and it more-or-less worked (108 wRC+). Baddoo’s torching hot start did eventually cool off, but he still finished the year looking promising enough for the Tigers to give him more run in 2022.

Where they might yet add to the offense is with another corner outfielder. Baddoo can play some center along with Victor Reyes, and there are still bats out there that could fit in the middle of Detroit’s lineup. Neither Baddoo nor Reyes needs to be guaranteed a starting spot. Given the contract that they reportedly offered to Carlos Correa, the Tigers still likely have some financial flexibility, should they choose to flex it.

The Tigers have patiently waited out their rebuild, but we know from their history that when the time comes, they are willing to spend. That doesn’t mean that they’re ready to spend it all this offseason, however, so their work could mostly be done. They’ve already made significant additions to the team. They aren’t done, but it’s certainly possible that any bullpen arms, starters, or extra bats they sign will slot in below the players already added, both in a financial and potential impact sense.

Then again, the Tigers have been aggressive. When the crossbar raises and GMs are set loose to sign free agents again, don’t be shocked to see Detroit hit the ground running. Big names have and are coming through the minor league system, but it’s not the deepest farm in the league, so if Detroit wants to make sure they meet expectations and become the cinderella darling of 2022, we might see more free agents changing their address to Motor City.

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The Many Paths Ahead Of Andrew Benintendi

By | at January 12, 2022 10:42pm CDT

2018 was a tremendous season for Andrew Benintendi.  The outfielder hit 16 home runs, stole 21 bases and slashed .290/.366/.465. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than league average, coming in at 10.7% and 16%, respectively. His wRC+ was 123 and he was worth 4.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He was part of an utterly dominant Red Sox team that went 108-54 in the regular season and then cruised to a World Series title by going 11-3 in the postseason. To top it all off, that was just his age-23 season, suggesting that there was still time for him to soar to even greater heights.

Unfortunately, things have gone in the opposite direction since then, with his numbers slipping slightly from the heights of 2018. The following year, he hit 13 homers, stole 10 bases and slashed .266/.343/.431, for a wRC+ of 100 and 2.0 fWAR. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season was especially short for Benintendi, as a ribcage strain limited him to just 14 games. After a trade to the Royals, his 2021 season saw him bounce back to roughly his 2019 level of production. He hit 17 dingers, stole 8 bags and hit .276/.324/.442 for a wRC+ of 106 and 2.1 fWAR. That means that Benintendi has now played four full seasons, with three of them being solid campaigns of either 2.0 or 2.1 fWAR, as he also produced 2.0 fWAR in 2017.

Now Benintendi is entering his final year before reaching free agency, assuming the new CBA doesn’t drastically alter the previous service time structure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected he’ll earn a salary of $9.3MM via arbitration. He’ll be playing for a Royals team with an uncertain short-term outlook, as their attempt to emerge out of rebuilding in 2021 came up short. They went 74-88, finishing 19 games behind the White Sox in the Central and just one game ahead of the basement-dwelling Twins. It was a relatively quiet pre-lockout offseason for them, as their biggest move so far was signing Taylor Clarke to a deal for less than $1MM. They should be able to improve by virtue of their young players continuing to develop, but it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in what could be Benintendi’s final year with the team. That leaves a wide variety of potential outcomes for him in the coming year.

If the Royals want Benintendi to stick around as they open a new competitive window, they could always offer him an extension, as they did with Michael A. Taylor in September. Taylor was headed into free agency in about a month, but agreed to a two-year extension that will keep him in KC through 2023. However, Benintendi will likely require a lengthier commitment than that, given that he is more than three years younger than Taylor and comes with a higher ceiling.

Benintendi is currently slated to reach free agency as a 28-year-old, similar to Kyle Schwarber, who was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $70MM over four years. They don’t produce in the same way, as Schwarber typically hits more but without much defensive contribution. However, they are still fairly analogous in terms of overall production. Over the past five years, Schwarber’s 10.8 fWAR in 593 games just barely eclipses Benintendi’s 10.1 fWAR in 585 games.

It would be something of a surprise for the Royals to give out an extension in that ballpark to Benintendi, as it would be fairly close to the four-year, $82MM extension they gave to Salvador Perez a year ago. Having close to $40MM committed to just two players would be a risky maneuver for a team that’s only rarely run a payroll over $100MM.

There’s also the possibility that Benintendi’s job in the outfield gets filled internally in the next year. The club currently has an infield mix that includes Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana and Hunter Dozier, with prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto likely to debut in 2022. That crowded mix could lead to Merrifield and Dozier getting pushed to the outfield, alongside Taylor, Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares. Considering all those options, perhaps they’d think it best to spend their money elsewhere.

With just one year of club control remaining, Benintendi will be a logical trade candidate if the Royals struggle to compete again in 2022. With the aforementioned glut of position players, the outfield could be covered by Taylor, Isbel, Merrifield, Dozier and Olivares after his departure. If Benintendi is having another season similar to what he did in 2017, 2019 and 2021, he should garner plenty of interest at the deadline, especially given that his affordable salary will be even less onerous by midseason. If he can go a notch higher and start to resemble his 2018 production, even better.

There’s also the chance that the Royals are able to take a step forward and get into the postseason mix, especially considering that the new CBA is expected to include an expanded postseason. A player like Benintendi could certainly be useful in a postseason chase, especially given his experience. If he were to stick on the Royals roster until the end of 2022 season, there’s a chance he could be a candidate for a qualifying offer, depending on how his season went. A one-year contract around $19MM or so could perhaps be a bit high for a 2-win player, but Benintendi has shown he is capable of more. Considering he will be hitting free agency at a young age, he would likely be inclined to turn down the QO and try to secure himself a long-term deal. Of course, that’s dependent on a healthy and productive season in 2022.

However, there is also the great unknown of the next CBA. There’s a chance that the qualifying offer system is scrapped or somehow altered in a way that would change all of these calculations for Benintendi and the Royals. There’s also the chance that Benintendi’s free agency trajectory is altered by the new CBA. It was reported back in August that one of the proposals made by MLB involved altering the free agency rules to be based on age instead of service time. Under this proposed structure, players would reach free agency at age 29 1/2, as opposed to the previous system of accruing six years of service time. Benintendi was born July 6th, 1994, meaning he wouldn’t reach 29 1/2 years of age until 2024. (July 1st was proposed as the cutoff date, meaning Benintendi would just miss.) The MLBPA reportedly wanted nothing to do with this proposal, but the course of the negotiations is difficult to predict at the moment. In a prolonged standoff, resolution will likely require a bit of compromise on both sides. It’s impossible to know which items will wind up back on the table as part of a larger deal.

There are a great many unknowns for baseball in 2022. We don’t know when the lockout will end, if a full season will be played or what the rules will be. For Benintendi and the Royals, there are even more questions remaining to be answered.

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Comparing Each Team’s Current Payroll To Previous Spending

By | at January 12, 2022 7:01pm CDT

The MLB and MLBPA will be returning to the bargaining table tomorrow, in order to hopefully begin the process of thawing the MLB landscape, which has remained quite frosty for over a month now. While this is surely welcome news for the baseball world, it doesn’t seem like the end of the lockout is imminent. At this point, with the scheduled start of spring training about a month away, there’s no avoiding a scenario with a quick turnaround between the conclusion of the lockout and the resumption of baseball activities. It’s been deduced by many that this will surely lead to a period of frenzied hot stove activity, as there are still a great number of free agents to be signed, as well as trades to be made, as teams look to set their rosters before the season begins in earnest.

Once that happens, some teams will surely be more active than others, depending on their respective circumstances. Front office members are typically cagy in public about what sort of payroll parameters they are working within, for sensible reasons. When negotiating with a player’s agent, for instance, it’s harder to make it seem as though you have little wiggle room if you’ve publicly boasted about having millions of dollars at your disposal. That makes it impossible for us to know exactly how much money is remaining in each team’s piggy bank, but we can at least make inferences by looking at precedents.

It’s not a guarantee that a team will stick to their previous habits, of course, as we’ve seen with the spending spree from the Mets this year. Some teams may intentionally be taking a step back to rebuild and won’t be spending to previous levels. There’s also the fact that many teams may be waiting to see how the luxury tax tiers are affected by the next CBA. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco covered that issue in greater detail here.) However, there are some broadly predictable patterns as to which teams are usually big spenders and which are usually low spenders.

Without further ado, here’s a quick shorthand version of where each team is at, comparing their projected 2022 Opening Day payroll to their previous record outlay for Opening Day. The following numbers are actual dollars, not luxury tax calculations. (2022 projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Payrolls from previous years from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

  • Angels: $10MM under. (Current projected payroll of $172MM, previous high was $182MM in 2021.)
  • Astros: $18MM under. (Current projected payroll of $170MM, previous high was $188MM in 2021.)
  • Athletics: $7MM under. (Current projected payroll of $85MM, previous high was $92MM in 2019.)
  • Blue Jays: $23MM under. (Current projected payroll of $140MM, previous high was $163MM in 2017.)
  • Braves: $9MM over. (Current projected payroll of $140MM, previous high was $131MM in 2021.)
  • Brewers: $2MM under. (Current projected payroll of $121MM, previous high was $123MM in 2019.)
  • Cardinals: $14MM under. (Current projected payroll of $150MM, previous high was $164MM in 2021.)
  • Cubs: $89MM under. (Current projected payroll of $114MM, previous high was $203MM in 2019.)
  • Diamondbacks: $46MM under. (Current projected payroll of $86MM, previous high was $132MM in 2018.)
  • Dodgers: $45MM under. (Current projected payroll of $227MM, previous high was $272MM in 2015.)
  • Giants: $75MM under. (Current projected payroll of $126MM, previous high was $201MM in 2018.)
  • Guardians: $86MM under.  (Current projected payroll of $49MM, previous high was $135MM in 2018.)
  • Mariners: $71MM under. (Current projected payroll of $87MM, previous high was $158MM in 2018.)
  • Marlins: $46MM under. (Current projected payroll of $69MM, previous high was $115MM in 2017.)
  • Mets: $68MM over. (Current projected payroll of $263MM, previous high was $195MM in 2021.)
  • Nationals: $79MM under. (Current projected payroll of $118MM, previous high was $197MM in 2019.)
  • Orioles: $103MM under. (Current projected payroll of $61MM, previous high was $164MM in 2017.)
  • Padres: $25MM over. (Current projected payroll of $199MM, previous high was $174MM in 2021.)
  • Phillies: $10MM under. (Current projected payroll of $181MM, previous high was $191MM in 2021.)
  • Pirates: $61MM under. (Current projected payroll of $39MM, previous high was $100MM in 2016.)
  • Rangers: $38MM under. (Current projected payroll of $127MM, previous high was $165MM in 2017.)
  • Rays: $7MM over. (Current projected payroll of $84MM, previous high was $77MM in 2014.)
  • Red Sox: $45MM under. (Current projected payroll of $191MM, previous high was $236MM in 2019.)
  • Reds: $12MM under. (Current projected payroll of $115MM, previous high was $127MM in 2019.)
  • Rockies: $41MM under. (Current projected payroll of $104MM, previous high was $145MM in 2019.)
  • Royals: $57MM under. (Current projected payroll of $86MM, previous high was $143MM in 2017.)
  • Tigers: $83MM under. (Current projected payroll of $117MM, previous high was $200MM in 2017.)
  • Twins: $38MM under. (Current projected payroll of $91MM, previous high was $129MM in 2019.)
  • White Sox: $51MM over. (Current projected payroll of $180MM, previous high was $129MM in 2021.)
  • Yankees: $14MM under. (Current projected payroll of $214MM, previous high was $228MM in 2013.)
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How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

By | at January 12, 2022 12:22pm CDT

23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

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Which Teams Are Most Likely To Acquire Matt Olson?

By | at January 12, 2022 11:48am CDT

The A’s are generally expected to make a few marquee players available after the lockout in an effort to trim payroll. If Oakland does embark on something of an organizational reboot, Matt Olson seems one of the likelier players to wind up elsewhere. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, Olson might be the costliest player on the A’s books.

Trading Olson is the most straightforward way to reduce payroll, but he’d still be in plenty of demand around the league. A $12MM salary is well below market value for a two-time Gold Glove winning first baseman coming off a .271/.371/.540 showing that earned him an eighth-place finish in AL MVP balloting. And with another season of below-market club control remaining thereafter (barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement), landing Olson would probably require sending multiple highly-regarded young players back to Oakland.

Which teams are in the best position to pull off the blockbuster if the A’s make Olson available? Before looking at the best fits, we can remove a few teams from consideration. The Pirates, Orioles and Diamondbacks aren’t in the competitive window to trade for a player with two years of control. The same is probably true of the Nationals and Cubs, barring an unexpected post-lockout push for immediate contention. The Rays’ projected 2022 payroll is already $18MM higher than last year’s season-opening mark. They’re probably not taking on a $12MM salary this winter; the Reds have spent all offseason signaling a desire to cut spending.

Which teams seem to be the most plausible landing spots?

Best Fits For A Deal

  • Braves — Are the Braves finally going to end their stalemate with Freddie Freeman after the lockout? If he signs somewhere else, they’ll need a first baseman. Olson is reportedly on their radar as a possible replacement.
  • Brewers — The Brewers have a championship-caliber pitching staff, but the offense has been middle-of-the-pack. Rowdy Tellez was alright after coming over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade, but his career track record is mixed. Olson would be a definitive upgrade, and Tellez could stick around as a possible designated hitter option if the universal DH is included in the next CBA. The question is whether Milwaukee — currently projected for a payroll around $20MM north of last season’s Opening Day mark — would take on a salary in this range, but he’s a perfect fit for the roster.
  • Giants — The Giants are only a strong fit in the event of a universal DH. Otherwise, first base belongs to Brandon Belt. If there’s an NL DH, acquiring Olson from their crosstown rivals and giving Belt more time at DH would be a boon to an already excellent offense, and it might help the 33-year-old Belt stay healthy all season.
  • Mariners — The Mariners are known to be looking for another bat. Acquiring Olson and pushing Ty France to DH would fill that void, and Seattle has the payroll space to accommodate such a move. The potential holdup? Seattle’s loath to part with their top prospects, and that might be especially true in an intra-divisional trade.
  • Rangers — The Rangers have looked into the possibility of an Olson deal. They’ve been ultra-aggressive this winter but still look to be shy of 2022 contention. Landing Olson and pushing Nathaniel Lowe to DH would complete perhaps the sport’s top infield, although there’d still be major question marks about the pitching staff. As with Seattle, there are possible intra-divisional trade complications to consider.
  • Twins — The Twins have been quieter than expected this winter. They should have payroll flexibility, though, and Miguel Sanó isn’t coming off a great season. Upgrading the rotation seems like the priority in Minnesota, but the free agent starting pitching market has been largely picked clean. Might they pivot and add to an already-strong offense to try to compensate for the lackluster starting staff?
  • Yankees — The Yankees have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for much of the winter, with good reason. Luke Voit dealt with a series of injuries last season, and the Yankees seemed sufficiently discouraged with his health outlook to land Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline. Rizzo’s now a free agent, and while New York could opt to roll with Voit again, there’s little question Olson would at least be a marked defensive upgrade.

Plausible But Longer Odds

  • Dodgers — One can seemingly never rule the Dodgers out on stars. But this probably requires an NL designated hitter to pull off, given the presences of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux between first and second base.
  • Guardians — A $12MM salary might wind up being too hefty for the Guardians. Yet they only have $11MM in guaranteed money on the books this year, with an estimated $49MM in commitments after accounting for arbitration projections. This is a franchise that has exceeded nine figures in the past, and incumbent first baseman Bobby Bradley struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances last year.
  • Marlins — The Marlins could supplant Jesús Aguilar at first, and Olson would be a massive upgrade to a lineup that struggled in 2021. Miami has plenty of young pitching that might appeal to Oakland. The Fish seem more focused on outfield help, but an Olson trade makes some sense if they pivot back to the dirt.
  • Padres — The Padres tend to act boldly, and they could stand to upgrade over Eric Hosmer. With a projected payroll approaching $200MM, it’s not clear how much further ownership’s willing to spend. Landing Olson might require first shedding the bulk of Hosmer’s contract in a separate trade, but that’d require parting with some prospect talent even before considering the package of young players San Diego would need to send to Oakland.
  • Phillies — An NL DH could theoretically bring Olson into play, with Rhys Hoskins assuming the bat-only role. Shortstop, third base, two outfield spots and the bullpen are all arguably bigger concerns for Philadelphia though.
  • Red Sox — The Red Sox could supplant Bobby Dalbec at first base this year. With J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency next winter, top prospect Triston Casas could break in as a DH in 2023. Yet with clearer needs in the bullpen and either at second base or in the outfield, Olson to Boston feels like a longshot.

Teams With More Pressing Needs

  • Angels — Jared Walsh broke out with an All-Star campaign in 2021 and should have first base accounted for. Designated hitter? That’s occupied by the reigning AL MVP.
  • Astros — Yuli Gurriel is back at first base after winning the batting title. Yordan Álvarez is locked in at DH.
  • Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have the reigning MVP runner-up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at first base. It’s unlikely they’d want Guerrero to become a full-time DH this early in his career. One could argue for Toronto acquiring Olson and kicking Guerrero back to third base, but it’s probably best to leave the young star at first and try to upgrade the other infield spots more directly.
  • Cardinals — The Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and some young options (Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez) for the possible DH spot.
  • Mets — The Mets have Pete Alonso at first and a number of offense-minded players already on the roster who could step into a DH role if needed.
  • Rockies — The Rockies just extended C.J. Cron. If the new CBA contains a universal DH, could they acquire Olson and take Cron off defense? That seems far-fetched, even for a Colorado team that views itself closer to contention than most outside observers would.
  • Royals — The Royals seem to be prioritizing bullpen help. They’d probably like to move Carlos Santana, but top prospect Nick Pratto could step in at first base in the unlikely event they find a Santana suitor.
  • Tigers — Miguel Cabrera is still around for two more years at DH, and top prospect Spencer Torkelson is on the doorstep of taking over first base.
  • White Sox — The White Sox are already at a franchise-record projected payroll and have José Abreu and Andrew Vaughn to cover first base/DH.

Payroll projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource

What does the MLBTR readership think?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Will Trade For Matt Olson After The Lockout?

  • Yankees 33% (2,347)
  • No one; A's aren't trading Olson this winter. 15% (1,047)
  • Braves 10% (724)
  • Brewers 9% (639)
  • Rangers 5% (337)
  • Mariners 5% (333)
  • Padres 4% (293)
  • Giants 4% (268)
  • Red Sox 4% (262)
  • Dodgers 3% (245)
  • Guardians 2% (134)
  • Other (specify in comments) 2% (133)
  • Phillies 2% (129)
  • Marlins 2% (120)
  • Twins 1% (93)

Total votes: 7,104

 

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Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Strongest Seasons?

By | at January 11, 2022 12:37pm CDT

As teams plan out their post-lockout needs, most are probably looking to the bullpen as an area that could use further help. With the number of relievers clubs deploy throughout a season, essentially all of them could be well-served to stockpile depth in the middle innings.

The most straightforward path to doing that is via free agency, and there are still a number of options from which to choose. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 58 available arms who tossed at least 20 innings of relief last season. Some, like longtime Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, are notable enough to command a significant multi-year guarantee. Many others figure to settle for one-year deals with a low base salary or perhaps minor league contracts with a Spring Training invite.

Who should be priority targets coming out of the transactions freeze? As we did with rotation options last week, we’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2021 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2021 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 4.17)

  1. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 1.83
  2. Collin McHugh (RHP), 1.90
  3. Jimmy Nelson (RHP), 1.98*
  4. Jesse Chavez (RHP), 2.03
  5. Kenley Jansen (RHP), 2.22
  6. Juan Minaya (RHP), 2.48
  7. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 2.61
  8. Ryan Tepera (RHP), 2.79
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 2.82
  10. Joe Kelly (RHP), 2.86

Strikeout Rate (league average — 24%)

  1. Jimmy Nelson, 38%
  2. Heath Hembree (RHP), 34.2%
  3. Jake Diekman (LHP), 31.7%
  4. Brad Boxberger (RHP), 31.2%
  5. Kenley Jansen, 30.9%
  6. Ryan Tepera, 30.8%
  7. Collin McHugh, 30.1%
  8. Jesse Chavez, 29.5%
  9. Ross Detwiler, 28.2%
  10. Jeurys Familia (RHP), 27.5%

Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.2 percentage points)

  1. Jimmy Nelson, 27.8 points
  2. Collin McHugh, 24.8 points
  3. Heath Hembree, 24.3 points
  4. Ryan Tepera, 22.9 points
  5. Jesse Chavez, 21.9 points
  6. Brad Boxberger, 21.8 points
  7. Ian Kennedy (RHP), 19.7 points
  8. Joe Kelly, 19.2 points
  9. Ross Detwiler, 19.1 points
  10. Jake Diekman, 18.7 points

Ground-ball Rate (league average — 43.1%)

  1. Joe Kelly, 58.9%
  2. Brandon Kintzler (RHP), 58.5%
  3. Archie Bradley (RHP), 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 53.7%
  5. Juan Minaya, 53%
  6. Alex Claudio (LHP), 52%
  7. Jeurys Familia, 51%
  8. Steve Cishek (RHP), 49.7%
  9. Edgar Santana (RHP), 49.6%
  10. Robert Gsellman (RHP), 49.4%

FIP (league average — 4.17)

  1. Jesse Chavez, 1.75
  2. Jimmy Nelson, 1.82
  3. Collin McHugh, 2.29
  4. Ryan Tepera, 2.73
  5. Andrew Chafin, 2.98
  6. Joe Kelly, 3.08
  7. Kenley Jansen, 3.08
  8. Ross Detwiler, 3.28
  9. Conner Greene (RHP), 3.46
  10. Chris Martin (RHP), 3.47

Innings Pitched

  1. Yusmeiro Petit (RHP), 78
  2. Hansel Robles (RHP), 69
  3. Kenley Jansen, 69
  4. Andrew Chafin, 68 2/3
  5. Steve Cishek, 68 1/3
  6. Alex Colomé, 65
  7. Brad Hand, 64 2/3
  8. Brad Boxberger, 64 2/3
  9. Richard Rodríguez (RHP), 64 1/3
  10. Adam Ottavino (RHP), 62

* Nelson underwent season-ending elbow surgery last August; his health status for 2022 remains unclear.

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2021-22 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

Poll: What Do You Make Of Service Time?

By | at January 10, 2022 11:02pm CDT

Last week we explored a poll covering December transactions from the year 2016, the ramifications of which Nationals, White Sox, and Yankees fans are all feeling to this day. This article’s look-back will touch on another poll from the archives and focus on a topic that affects the league at large: service time regulations.

Service time is one of the more universal components of major league baseball— if a player is on a team’s active roster during the regular season, he’s going to accrue service time. How quickly a player accrues service time affects their career earnings, both through the arbitration process and how quickly they’re compensated in free agency. For teams, service time signals how long they have control of a non-market value (read: very affordable) player, is a major component in assessing trade value, and is closely monitored to maximize a team’s perceived competitive window.

Because the accumulation of service time affects player compensation and a team’s roster construction, it’s not much of a surprise that editing the existing service time structure has been a hot-button issue in the ongoing CBA saga. MLBTR broke down what each negotiating party looked to change with the current service time structure here, but the general attitude of each side can be described as this: the MLBPA wants its players to reach active rosters and free agency as soon as possible, while the league has proposed to rework the system but generally has little urgency to shake up a longstanding way of doing business.

Any changes to the existing service time structure will be tricky, and may require concessions from the benefitting party elsewhere in CBA negotiations. That said, barring a massive overhaul in the way players reach free agency it’s likely that a new system will be just as exploitable as the current iteration.

Teams have always looked to keep their brightest young players under team control for as long and cost-effectively as they can, and it’s unlikely they’ll budge to a structure that will make that mission much harder. Baseball fans meanwhile, will of course want their teams to act logically under any system that’s set in place— more than 73% of voters in a 2018 site poll indicated baseball’s service time structure was tolerable, even if they didn’t think it was fair to players.

Anecdotally, a majority of sampled fans feel that keeping a Kris Bryant-type prospect in the minor leagues for a few weeks in April is okay if it leads to another year of team control. The exceedingly rare instances where that type of player cracks an Opening Day roster, as was the case with the immediately-impactful Fernando Tatis Jr., are welcome breaks from service time considerations and generate buzz, but can seem regrettable if a top player departs a team six years down the road instead of an easily-attainable seven.

With the league preparing its next round of economic proposals, the service time structure as we know it may soon look a bit different. If that proves to be the case and the current structure is modified, it’s possible a deal can be reached that feels workable for teams and more inherently fair to players. That said, there’s no guarantee any changes will be made to service time structure when several other key issues remain on the table. To the fans, at a time when change may be on the horizon, we’ll ask again: how do you feel about MLB’s service time rules?

How Do You Feel About MLB's Service Time Rules?

  • They're unfair to players and fan interest; the next CBA should adjust them 58% (3,285)
  • There's nothing wrong with them, it's part of the game 29% (1,663)
  • They're not exactly fair, but can be addressed several CBAs from now 13% (736)

Total votes: 5,684

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