Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By | at

Even the game’s largest Covid-19 outbreak couldn’t derail the Marlins’ Cinderella season, as the Fish surprised the league with a 31-29 record and went on to topple the Cubs in the Wild Card round of this year’s expanded postseason format. With a slew of young talent bubbling up to the Majors, newly minted general manager Kim Ng will be aiming to bring the club back to October baseball in 2021.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Marlins’ surprising success in 2020 can be attributed to the team’s enviable collection of young pitching. Right-handers Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez each gave strong performances, with Alcantara and Lopez soaking up the most innings. Alcantara, Lopez and Hernandez are all locked into next year’s rotation, manager Don Mattingly said after the Marlins’ postseason run ended. Sanchez’s omission from the mix may surprise some, given his strong rookie effort, although he’ll surely have the opportunity to cement his spot in Spring Training.

Behind that quartet of righties is a mix of intriguing but still unproven arms. Righty Jordan Yamamoto had some success in 2019 but was clobbered in 2020. Prospects Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers all struggled in small samples of work as well. Veteran righty Jose Urena is out of the mix after yesterday’s DFA, although that’s hardly a surprise given that he stood out as one of the game’s likelier non-tender candidates. The Marlins have some intriguing yet-to-debut options (e.g. Edward Cabrera), but their pitching depth was thinned out a bit when they sent Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia to the Diamondbacks in this August’s Starling Marte trade.

Beyond Alcantara and Lopez, Marlins starters have at best limited track records of MLB success. Even Hernandez, whom Mattingly proclaimed as a member of the rotation, pitched just 25 2/3 solid innings in 2020; in 2018-19, he posted an ERA north of 5.00. The youth and years of team control are obviously appealing, but the Marlins would still be well served to bring in a veteran both to help mentor the staff and to provide some stable innings. Names like Rick Porcello, Martin Perez and south Florida native Mike Fiers are all available if the team’s priority is dependable innings, and there are plenty of interesting names looking for bouncebacks from injured seasons (e.g. James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber).

With Kintzler and Boxberger both returning to the market, the Marlins will have some work to do to round out their bullpen. Miami could’ve retained Kintzler at a seemingly reasonable $4MM price point, but there were quite a few solid reliever options declined this year. Perhaps the hope is that recently acquired righty Adam Cimber, another ground-ball specialist, can provide similar production at a fraction of the rate. Miami picked him up from the Indians in exchange for cash, and he’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration. Even with Cimber aboard, it’s likely that the Marlins will talk to Kintzler about coming back at a lower price than his option would have guaranteed.

More intriguing bullpen options will become available after the non-tender deadline. The Marlins seem likely to again look for affordable veteran help to complement their in-house options, particularly with an unsettled mix at the back of the ’pen. Two offseasons ago, the Marlins did quite well on a low-cost, one-year deal with Sergio Romo. Last winter, it was Kintzler. It seems reasonable to expect a similar approach this time around, even with a new GM at the helm.

Turning to the offense, the Marlins have plenty of intriguing youngsters on the cusp of Major League readiness, but struggles behind the plate could lead the club to look outside the organization for upgrades. Jorge Alfaro was a key piece of the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia — along with the aforementioned Sanchez — but he’s yet to solidify himself as the team’s long-term replacement for Realmuto. In two years as a Marlin, Alfaro has a .256/.306/.410 batting line, and both his offense and defense took marked steps back in 2020. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Miami was starting the light-hitting Chad Wallach over Alfaro.

Miami doesn’t figure to spend particularly aggressively in free agency. A Realmuto reunion is off the table, but any of the market’s second-tier options — James McCann and Yadier Molina headline the group — could seemingly fit into the budget for a team whose current payroll projection check in shy of $60MM now that Urena no longer factors into the mix. Additional trades or non-tenders could yet lower that mark.

The trade market could offer myriad other possibilities. Many Marlins decision-makers have Yankees roots and are familiar with Gary Sanchez. There’s bound to be speculation about the Cubs moving Willson Contreras as they look to cut costs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored the reasons that San Diego might move Francisco Mejia. The Blue Jays have a glut of catchers on their 40-man roster.

Looking up and down the rest of the lineup, the needs aren’t as palpable. The outfield should be more or less set with Corey Dickerson’s contract locking him into left field and Starling Marte set to return as the primary center fielder. Garrett Cooper hit well in 2020, but if he falters in right field, the Marlins are rife with corner-outfield alternatives; any of Jon Berti, Monte Harrison, Harold Ramirez, Magneuris Sierra, Jesus Sanchez or Lewis Brinson could earn an increased role there.

If somehow that entire bunch struggles, the club could always consider moving third baseman Brian Anderson back to right field. Between Berti, Miguel Rojas, Isan Diaz and Jazz Chisholm, the Fish should be able to cover third base, shortstop and second base even if Anderson is needed in the outfield. It’s possible the Marlins still bring in a versatile veteran infielder, if only so they have the option of allowing both Diaz and Chisholm to continue to develop in Triple-A without compromising their bench mix.

Over at first base, the Marlins got a big rebound performance out of Jesus Aguilar and will surely tender him a contract after he raked at a .277/.352/.457 clip with eight long balls in 216 trips to the dish. Should he sustain an injury or see his 2019 struggles recur, the Marlins could turn things over to Cooper or dip into the farm and call on prospect Lewin Diaz to get an earnest look at first base.

Given the wealth of young options in both the infield and the outfield, a major addition at any position other than catcher seems unlikely. Minor league depth signings and a veteran bench piece to add to either the infield or outfield mix — possibly both, if the target is someone like old friend Enrique Hernandez — make plenty of sense for the Marlins. However, this is a club whose collection of position players simply needs some time to audition for the front office.

The pitching side of things presents a bit more of an opportunity for some veteran pickups, but again, there are several key young players in place and others who are ready for a chance to show they belong in the conversation as long-term building blocks.

Had there been a traditional season with expected revenue streams and ample time for said young players to get their feet wet in the Majors and upper minors, the Marlins’ outlook might be a bit different. They’d have a better sense of who is and who isn’t vital to their long-term competitiveness and would perhaps have a better idea of where they need to spend in the long run. Given that they remarkably don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books for the 2022 season, the Marlins might have been considered a dark horse to again splash around with some notable free-agent spending.

That doesn’t seem as likely now with a year of zero revenue and with so many young questions to be answered. Still, that blank slate on the 2022 payroll is worth bearing in mind both as the 2021 trade deadline approaches and as next offseason looms. If the organization’s younger options aren’t cutting it, this is a team with such a wide-open financial outlay that they could take on salary either via trade or (next winter) free agency. The Fish have reached the point where they’ll look to rise from NL East cellar dweller to a legitimate threat in what could be the game’s most competitive division race for several years to come.

Trade Candidate: Francisco Mejia

By | at

The Padres overhauled their catching mix at the August 31 trade deadline, acquiring Austin Nola and Jason Castro in separate trades with the Mariners and Angels, while Luis Torrens went to Seattle as part of the Nola trade and Austin Hedges was sent to the Indians as part of the trade return for Mike Clevinger.

The end result was that Francisco Mejia was the only catcher who entered and exited deadline season in a Padres uniform, though he wasn’t on the active roster.  Mejia was on the injured list due to a thumb contusion and, once activated, he played in only one more MLB game before being sent to the Padres’ alternate training site.  As we get deeper into the offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether that one September game (a pinch-hit appearance on Sept. 16) might also mark Mejia’s final outing as a Padre.

Nola is still the projected starter, but recent reports from Yadier Molina himself have connected San Diego to Molina’s free agent market.  Star catching prospect Luis Campusano also made his big league debut in 2020 and, perhaps tellingly, was included on the Padres’ postseason roster over Mejia as the third catcher.  However, Campusano’s status is currently up in the air following an October arrest for felony marijuana possession.

Given the uncertainty over Campusano and the chances that Molina could sign elsewhere, it’s quite possible that the Friars could simply hang onto Mejia and use him as Nola’s backup.  (If not Molina, another veteran catcher could be signed as further depth, perhaps to a minor league deal rather than the MLB contract Molina will demand.)  If the Padres did sign Molina or another noted veteran catcher, however, Mejia could suddenly be expendable.

It was back in July 2018 that Mejia was a much more prominent trade chip, as he was sent from the Indians to the Padres in exchange for both Brad Hand and Adam Cimber.  At the time, Mejia was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season.  Over an even 2200 career plate appearances at the minor league level, Mejia has hit .295/.349/.462 with 58 home runs and looked all the world like a player ready for the Show.

Even in 2019, Mejia performed well enough in his first extended taste of Major League action that he seemed to be living up to the prospect hype.  Despite two separate IL stints due to a knee sprain and an oblique strain, Mejia still hit a respectable .265/.316/.438 over 244 PA in 2019.  Unfortunately, Mejia couldn’t come close to this form last season, hitting just .077/.143/.179 in 42 PA — with Hedges posting equally dismal numbers, it isn’t surprising that San Diego chose to shake up their catching corps at the deadline.

Mejia only turned 25 last month and is still close enough to his blue-chip prospect days that he would certainly generate some interest on the trade market.  Any number of teams would like to upgrade their catching situation, ranging both from rebuilding clubs to would-be contenders.  The Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Reds, Angels, or Cardinals are some of the names in the latter group, and the two New York teams, St. Louis, and Anaheim have also been linked to Molina.

While lots of teams need catching, one of the outstanding questions about Mejia is whether or not he’ll ultimately stick at catcher over the long term.  Mejia saw some action as a corner outfielder when he was in Cleveland’s farm system, and he also played four MLB games as a left fielder for the Padres in 2019.  Obviously Mejia’s bat carries more value at catcher than at any other position, though showing an ability to at least passably play on the grass might not hurt Mejia’s trade value all that much, given how multi-positional versatility is so prized by modern front offices.

The Padres’ interest in Molina shows that the club has at least some inclination to alter its catching mix yet again, so this might be the position to watch since San Diego is otherwise pretty set elsewhere around the diamond.  Rather than again deal from their deep farm system, the Padres could prefer to move an MLB-ready player like Mejia who might be in need of a change of scenery.

Transaction Retrospection: Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann Signing

By | at

On this date five years ago, the Tigers agreed to terms with Jordan Zimmermann on a five-year, $110MM deal. The Wisconsin native expressed a preference to return to the Midwest after spending the first eight-plus years of his pro career in the Nationals’ organization.

At the time, Zimmermann looked a reliable bet to log #2 starter caliber production. Between 2013-15, the right-hander had tossed 614.2 innings of 3.19 ERA/3.27 FIP ball for Washington. He wasn’t overpowering, but Zimmermann threw a ton of strikes, avoided barrels, and punched out enough batters to become a high-end starter. If anything, the deal looked a bit team-friendly at the time of signing. Entering the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had projected Zimmermann to pull down $126MM over six years.

Unfortunately, things didn’t play out anywhere near as hoped. Zimmermann went on the injured list twice in 2016 and was limited to 105.1 innings of 4.87 ERA ball that first season. Things continued to trend down from there. Over the next three seasons, Zimmermann managed just a 5.80 ERA, with opposing hitters posting a .299/.339/.518 line against him. He missed almost all of this past season after being diagnosed with a forearm strain but finished the year healthy.

Zimmermann is now a free agent, and he’ll almost certainly have to work his way back onto a team’s roster via a minor-league deal. As of May, the 34-year-old said he had no interest in retiring any time soon.

2020 Non-Tender Candidates

By and | at

More than 200 MLB players are currently eligible for arbitration, meaning they are on a team’s 40-man roster and have enough service time to have their salaries determined through the longstanding backward-looking system.  At the low end, this includes players who qualify for Super Two status, the exact cutoff for which is not known yet for 2020.  The Super Two cutoff typically falls around two years and 130 days (written as 2.130) but has fallen as low as 2.115 last year.  The high end of service time would be anyone short of the six years needed to qualify for free agency, even one day shy like Kris Bryant.

Potentially arbitration eligible players have been getting pared from 40-man rosters since the offseason began, but those that remain will be subject to the non-tender deadline.  This deadline is at 8pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd.  By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a non-guaranteed contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount.  Those will be added to our free agent list and tracker.

There is a general expectation among baseball writers that this year, arbitration eligible players will be cut loose in record numbers due to teams’ financial losses in 2020 and uncertainty for 2021.  Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs recently explored recent historical non-tender data, suggesting that the number of players being cut at the deadline already has been on the rise.  My guess is that we’ll see a handful of players cut that normally wouldn’t be, but nothing wildly abnormal.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.

It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers.  Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.  This is known as a pre-tender contract.  Multiyear extensions are another possibility.

Determining arbitration salaries will be especially difficult this offseason, which I’ve written about here.  That difficulty also applies to the arbitration salary projections Matt Swartz provides each year for MLBTR, which can be found here.  In this list, I’ve provided Matt’s “Method 3” arbitration projections.  On to our list of non-tender candidates:

Catchers

Curt Casali, Reds ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, Rockies ($850K)
Austin Hedges, Indians ($3.0MM)
Omar Narvaez, Brewers ($2.9MM)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees ($5.5MM)
Pedro Severino, Orioles ($1.4MM)
Tony Wolters, Rockies ($2.0MM)

First Basemen

Danny Santana, Rangers ($3.6MM)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto, Orioles ($2.6MM)
Johan Camargo, Braves ($1.9MM)
Greg Garcia, Padres ($1.6MM)

Shortstops

Orlando Arcia, Brewers ($2.8MM)
Erik Gonzalez, Pirates ($1.2MM)
Niko Goodrum, Tigers ($1.6MM)
Daniel Robertson, Giants ($1.1MM)
Pat Valaika, Orioles ($1.1MM)

Third Basemen

Kris Bryant, Cubs ($18.6MM)
Travis Shaw, Blue Jays ($4.5MM)

Left Fielders

Tommy Pham, Padres ($8.0MM)
Eddie Rosario, Twins ($9.6MM)
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs ($7.9MM)

Center Fielders

Albert Almora, Cubs ($1.575MM)
Delino DeShields, Indians ($2.1MM)
Brian Goodwin, Reds ($2.7MM)
Guillermo Heredia, Mets ($1.3MM)

Right Fielders

Ben Gamel, Brewers ($1.7MM)
Nomar Mazara, White Sox ($5.7MM)
Tyler Naquin, Indians ($1.8MM)
Jace Peterson, Brewers ($700K)

Designated Hitters

Jose Martinez, Cubs ($2.1MM)
Daniel Vogelbach, Brewers ($1.4MM)

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Anderson, Giants ($3.7MM)
Yonny Chirinos, Rays ($1.6MM)
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies ($1.2MM)
Jon Gray, Rockies ($5.9MM)
Robert Gsellman, Mets ($1.3MM)
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox ($1.7MM)
Steven Matz, Mets ($5.1MM)
Carlos Rodon, White Sox ($4.5MM)
Jose Urena, Marlins ($3.9MM)
Vince Velasquez, Phillies ($4.0MM)

Right-Handed Relievers

Justin Anderson, Angels ($700K)
Matt Andriese, Angels ($1.9MM)
Shawn Armstrong, Orioles ($800K)
Matt Barnes, Red Sox ($4.1MM)
Ryan Brasier, Red Sox ($1.0MM)
John Brebbia, Cardinals ($800K)
Austin Brice, Red Sox ($700K)
Luis Cessa, Yankees ($1.1MM)
Adam Cimber, Indians ($800K) – designated for assignment
A.J. Cole, Blue Jays ($800K)
Jairo Diaz, Rockies ($800K)
Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies ($900K)
Carlos Estevez, Rockies ($1.5MM)
Michael Feliz, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Trevor Gott, Giants ($700K)
Ben Heller, Yankees ($700K)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees ($900K)
Corey Knebel, Brewers ($5.125MM)
Luke Jackson, Braves ($1.9MM)
Joe Jimenez, Tigers ($1.0MM)
Keynan Middleton, Angels ($900K)
Colin Rea, Cubs ($1.0MM)
Hansel Robles, Angels ($3.9MM)
Nick Tropeano, Mets ($700K)
Dan Winkler, Cubs ($900K)

Left-Handed Relievers

Scott Alexander, Dodgers ($1.0MM)
Alex Claudio, Brewers ($2.0MM)
Grant Dayton, Braves ($800K)
Wandy Peralta, Giants ($1.0MM)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs ($1.2MM)
Chasen Shreve ($800K)

Mel Rojas Jr. Drawing Interest After MVP-Caliber KBO Season

By | at

The MLB legacy of the Alou/Rojas family runs deep.  Felipe and Matty Alou made multiple All-Star teams in the 60s, with Jesus joining them on the 1963 Giants for the first all-brother outfield.  Felipe would further his reputation as the longtime manager of the Expos and Giants.  Moises would become an even better MLB player than his father Felipe, racking up six All-Star appearances and MVP votes in seven seasons.  And don’t forget Felipe’s other son, Luis, who was requested by MLB to use the surname on his birth certificate.  Luis Rojas now serves as manager of the Mets.

Moises’ cousin, Mel Rojas, pitched in the Majors in the 90s for the Expos and other clubs, racking up 126 saves in his big league career.  Mel Rojas Jr., however, hasn’t yet seen MLB success.  Mel Jr., 31 in May, was drafted by the Pirates in the third round in 2010 as a switch-hitting outfielder out of Wabash Valley College in Mount Caramel, Illinois.  At his MLB prospect peak, Rojas was ranked 23rd among Pirates prospects by Baseball America before the 2011 season.  BA wrote, “Some see him as having five-tool potential, though with no true plus tool, but others see him as a tweener who won’t be able to remain in center and may not hit enough for a corner.”

Rojas topped out at Triple-A in the Pirates organization, and was traded to the Braves in 2016 for cash considerations.  In 2017, he decided to reboot his career by signing with a KBO team, the KT Wiz.  After four strong years in Suwon, Rojas is back on the radar for MLB teams.  He appears on track for the KBO MVP award tomorrow after nearly winning the Triple Crown in 2020, boasting a .349/.417/.680 line with 47 home runs and 135 RBI in 628 plate appearances.  Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions recently provided a scouting report on Rojas.

Rojas is represented by his cousin Jay Alou, son of Jesus Alou.  Rojas fits best as a right fielder, and would require a Major League deal to return to the United States.  As Rojas said to Kyle Koster of The Big Lead back in July, “If I win the MVP, I’m for sure getting a big-league contract. It would mean everything to me, and I’m not just saying that.”  He earned $1.5MM in 2020, and is looking to top that amount.  The Wiz would like to retain him, but Rojas is also drawing interest from three MLB teams as well as three Japanese clubs.

The question is how Rojas’ KBO video game numbers would translate to MLB.  Rojas explained the difference in his interview with Koster: “Honestly, it’s harder to hit against Koreans than Americans sometimes. The average speed over here is 88-90 mph but it gets there quick and looks faster than it is. They’re very sneaky.”  Rojas hasn’t mashed at the level of Eric Thames, who peaked at a 216 wRC+ in KBO and landed a three-year, $16MM deal with the Brewers four years ago.  Thames has a 113 wRC+ in the Majors since returning, doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching.

When FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski translated Rojas’ 2019 KBO season to its MLB equivalency, his .322/.381/.530 line in KBO became .266/.314/.448 in MLB.  That’s pretty similar to the work of an Eric Hosmer or Renato Nunez the last couple of seasons, though Rojas upped his game in 2020.  Unlike someone like Thames, Rojas has the ability to play the corner outfield capably, and appears to have the arm for right field.  A low-level MLB deal does seem possible for Rojas, but he’d likely have to wait until after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline when teams will have a better picture of who’s available.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at

The reigning American League champions will deploy their usual strategy of tight payroll management and canny roster maneuvering as they look to take the final step of capturing a World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $39MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $26MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $21.5MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; Rays also hold $11.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: $7MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s possible that in a normal 2020 season with fans in the stands and some extra postseason revenue in hand, the Rays might have taken the plunge in exercising Charlie Morton’s $15MM option.  Or, it’s just as possible that the Rays would have declined the option anyway, since trying to maximize value on any available payroll space is just how the team does business.  This includes even tough decisions like parting ways with Morton, who delivered nothing but good results over his two years in Tampa Bay.

Given the Rays’ 226-158 record over the last three seasons and the fact that they finished just two games shy of a World Series title, it’s hard to argue with the club’s methods.  It also makes their offseason moves both somewhat easy and somewhat difficult to predict.  Obviously we can rule out any big free agent signings or acquisitions of high-salaried stars (without another big contract going back in return), yet pretty much anything else besides a Wander Franco trade is conceivably on the table.

For instance, it isn’t surprising that the Rays are open to discussing Blake Snell in trade talks.  Should any future reports indicate that Tampa Bay is floating other guaranteed-salary players like Kevin Kiermaier, Yoshi Tsutsugo, or even Brandon Lowe in discussions with other teams, that also shouldn’t raise eyebrows.  It remains to be seen if Snell or any of this group will actually be dealt, but GM Erik Neander has shown he is willing to deal even premium players for less-heralded talents who are much less expensive but end up being comparably productive.

Let’s begin with the rotation, which is the most natural area of need with Morton gone.  The Rays had hopes of bringing Morton back on a lesser salary, but the veteran found another $15MM in the form of a one-year deal with the Braves.  That leaves Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Tyler Glasnow, and likely Josh Fleming as the projected top four starters, with a host of candidates for the fifth spot.  Prospects Shane McClanahan and Joe Ryan are on the cusp of big league action — McClanahan debuted in this year’s postseason — and the hope is that former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. might finally be healthy after three years lost to major injuries.  Brendan McKay isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, but is penciled in to pitch at some point in 2021.

While the Rays have shown they’re comfortable putting young starters into high-leverage positions, it’s probably safe to assume the team will look to add at least one veteran to the mix.  We can likely rule out any eight-figure average annual salaries for that next veteran — Morton’s two-year, $30MM deal was a surprise — but several interesting names could emerge as candidates for lower-cost one-year deals.  These free agents could be attracted at the idea of pitching for a contender.

Tampa figures to look into acquiring a veteran to the relief corps as well, probably a left-hander since the club’s current bullpen mix tilts to the right.  Jose Alvarado is a potential non-tender and Aaron Loup is a free agent, so there would certainly be room for more southpaw help.  But, the Rays will likely continue to rely on their farm system and their ever-active shuttle of fresh Triple-A pitcher to fill out their pitching staff, whether it’s starters, relievers, or openers.

Trading from this minor league depth is a definite possibility, if perhaps a less of an option for the Rays this offseason than in past winters.  Between all of their pitching injuries last season and Morton’s departure, the Rays might prefer to keep most of their young arms in the fold rather than openly offer them as trade chips, though naturally that wouldn’t stop Neander and company from moving a pitching prospect if the right offer emerged.

In what has become almost an annual offseason tradition, the Rays will again be looking for catching help.  Mike Zunino’s option was declined, Michael Perez was claimed by the Pirates, and Kevan Smith elected free agency, leaving Tampa Bay without a single catcher who appeared in a game for them in 2020.  It’s possible Zunino could be re-signed at a lower cost than his $4.5MM option, though even if he is brought back, the Rays would be in some sense settling for a catcher who offers quality defense but whose offense has cratered over the last two seasons.  Prospect Ronaldo Hernandez could get a look but is more likely to be broken in as a backup rather than thrust into a regular role.

There aren’t many truly expensive options within the free agent catching market, so the Rays could make a signing and land another one-year stopgap behind the plate.  If Tampa Bay did decide to trade from its prospect depth, it could be argued that they should be using that trade capital to find a more longer-term catching option.  There aren’t many teams with a surplus of young catching, of course, but the Padres or Dodgers seem like speculative trade partners.  Since the Cubs seem open to trading any veteran making a significant salary, Willson Contreras would also seem like a trade target, though Contreras’ projected $5.6MM arbitration salary might give the Rays some pause.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Randy Arozarena’s status is up in the air given his recent detainment due to an alleged domestic incident.  Details are still scarce about the exact nature of the incident or what charges Arozarena may face, though legal issues aside, Arozarena may still face a possible suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

The outfield was probably already going to be a target area since Hunter Renfroe was let go, but if Arozarena could also miss time, the Rays would have a starting outfield of Manuel Margot, Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips as a potential fourth outfielder, and Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Mike Brosseau all getting some time in the corner spots.  (Prospect Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in 2016, could also make his MLB debut in 2021.)  A right-handed hitting outfielder would be a solid addition to that collection, and Arozarena’s situation could determine whether that outfielder is more of a part-timer, or a potential everyday type.

The Rays are pretty set around the infield, but it would fit Neander’s M.O. to trade any of these players if a (more) inexpensive upgrade could be found elsewhere.  Depending on how the Rays feel about Nate Lowe’s readiness as a regular, it’s possible Ji-Man Choi could be replaced as the primary left-handed first base option, though Choi’s $1.6MM projected arbitration number isn’t onerous even for Tampa.

With so many controllable infielders already on hand, the Rays might feel more comfortable about moving some infield prospects in trade talks.  Franco obviously isn’t going anywhere, but the likes of Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls, or Xavier Edwards would definitely get the attention of other clubs.

Franco’s development looms over the Rays’ infield plans, and while he doesn’t even turn 20 years old until March and has yet to play above high-A ball, it wouldn’t be a shock if he made his big league debut before 2021 was over.  Rays coaches and staffers did get a chance to evaluate Franco against higher-level talent at the team’s alternate training site over the summer, and Tampa has been aggressive in promoting its top prospects in the past.  This all said, the smart money is on Willy Adames continuing to hold down the fort at shortstop while Franco gets another year of development under his belt.

Pre-pandemic, Tampa Bay had a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $72.5MM.  Counting guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, the Rays have approximately $63.68MM committed to their 2021 payroll.  Considering revenue losses, getting back up to even the $70MM threshold seems like a stretch, leaving Neander (as usual) without many extra funds on hand this winter.  The Rays front office’s ability to thrive within limited financial parameters will again be tested, but with much of a pennant-winning core already in place, Tampa could be just a piece or two away.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By | at

The Twins’ unfathomable postseason losing streak stretched to 18 games when they fell to the Astros during a Wild Card sweep. It’s back to the drawing board for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine as they look to secure a third straight division title and finally dispel the postseason curse.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $71MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B: $23MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $22.75MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: $17.833MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option; contract also contains 2025  option)
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: $10MM through 2021
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $9MM through 2023 (contract contains $3MM annual base with up to $10.15MM of annual incentives)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $5MM club option on RHP Sergio Romo (paid $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Twins put together more-than-competitive rosters in 2019-20, shining in the regular season before continuing their inexplicable postseason drought. The good news for Minnesota fans is that the core group remains largely in place beyond the 2020 season.

Nelson Cruz is the most notable exception, as the 40-year-old slugger will head back to the open market this winter — reportedly in search of a two-year deal. It’s hard to blame Cruz for seeking that guarantee if he’s intent on playing through his 42nd birthday; he’s been an absolute monster in his two years with the Twins, slashing a combined .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs in 173 games.

If the Twins were willing to meet that two-year term, I imagine this deal would’ve already come together. That’s not to say the two sides won’t eventually get there, but it might require some market pressure to move the team’s urgency. Absent the implementation of a permanent designated hitter in the National League, it’s not clear such pressure will exist. Most contending clubs throughout the American League have their DH at-bats largely spoken for.

Cruz seems willing to wait until there’s clarity on an NL DH (or lack thereof); the Twins could wait along with him or more proactively pursue a replacement. Marcell Ozuna could slide right into that DH spot and see occasional time in the outfield corners. The same is true of Michael Brantley, who has an obvious connection to the Twins in the form of Falvey, who was a former assistant GM with the Indians when Brantley played in Cleveland. Ditto Carlos Santana, who could start at first base and push Miguel Sano to DH, giving the Twins a defensive upgrade.

After Cruz, the biggest question is what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The 29-year-old upped his walk rate to a career-high 8.2 percent in 2020 after years of criticism over his free-swinging approach, and he did so while maintaining above-average power (.219 ISO) and a low strikeout rate (14.7 percent).

One year of Rosario at somewhere in the $9-11MM vicinity is a perfectly reasonable price, but the Twins have a pair of near-MLB-ready top 100 prospects who happen to call the corner outfield their home: Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Left field/first base prospect Brent Rooker also made his MLB debut in 2020 and hit quite well before a broken forearm ended his season. The Twins thought so highly of Kirilloff that they not only carried him on the postseason roster but allowed him to make his MLB debut as the starting right fielder in an elimination game. Kirilloff has at times ranked inside baseball’s 10 best overall prospects and is still widely considered in the top 25 to 50.

Given leaguewide revenue losses and the fact that Rosario will earn about 17 times as much as Kirilloff in 2021, it’s not a surprise that Rosario has been mentioned both as a trade candidate and a non-tender candidate. He’d be among the better players we’ve seen non-tendered in recent years, but it’s fair to wonder whether another club would take on his salary and surrender anything in return in a climate that saw Indians closer Brad Hand go unclaimed on waivers when he could’ve been claimed at $10MM. I wrote about Rosario’s trade candidacy back in April and again more recently for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, noting that there are some on-paper fits who could at least be intrigued by Rosario on a short-term commitment — the Nationals and Astros chief among them.

Outside of Cruz and Rosario/Kirilloff, the lineup is largely set — although there’s still room to be creative. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should reprise their roles as center fielder and right fielder, barring a surprise trade of Kepler and his team-friendly contract. Who will seize the bulk of the time behind the plate isn’t certain, but both Mitch Garver (2019) and the younger Ryan Jeffers (2020) have turned in impressive seasons at the plate recently. Catcher isn’t likely to be a top priority outside of a potential depth add on a minor league deal. One could argue that the club should pursue J.T. Realmuto and make Jeffers/Garver available in trade, but that’s a reach.

So where’s the best spot to great “creative,” then? The middle infield — shortstop in particular — seems to present an opportunity. The Indians aren’t going to ship Francisco Lindor to their top division rival, but the free-agent market still has some quality options available. Polanco is a fine incumbent when healthy, but he’s undergone two ankle surgeries since signing his extension and was never a great defensive shortstop in the first place.

A pursuit of Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons could allow the Twins to shift one of Polanco or Luis Arraez into the super-utility role that has been vacated by Marwin Gonzalez’s free-agent departure. The other could get regular reps as the everyday second baseman. If the plan is to keep Polanco at shortstop, the Twins could pursue Kolten Wong and install a marked defensive upgrade while still deploying Arraez in that heavily used utility role.

Middle infield isn’t a “need” for this Twins team, but that was also true of third base last year when the club nevertheless won the bidding on Josh Donaldson, recognizing an opportunity to add a potent bat and upgrade the defense in one fell swoop. The shortstop market this winter looks somewhat similar to last year’s third base market in that there are a few clubs with notable holes — Reds, Phillies, Angels — but still a limited enough number that the Twins could jump the market if they strongly feel Semien or Gregorius would be an upgrade. At minimum, the Twins will likely add a shortstop-capable utilityman with backup options Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza now free agents.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation doesn’t look to be as glaring a need as it did this time last year. The Twins will return Cy Young finalist Kenta Maeda as well as righties Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda. In-house options Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer create options at the fourth and fifth spots, and the club has top 100 prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic not far from the Majors.

It still seems likely the Twins will add at least one veteran to this mix, and you could argue that anyone from Trevor Bauer all the way to a steady fourth/fifth starter like Mike Fiers would make sense. Bauer is another player connected to Falvey from his time with the Indians, and Twins bench coach Mike Bell was the D-backs’ farm director when Arizona drafted Bauer with the No. 3 pick.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins would outbid the field to sign Bauer, but they could technically have the payroll space to do it — especially if Rosario departs. Subtracting Rosario would put 2021 payroll at about $90MM — a hefty $43MM shy of 2020’s pre-pandemic $133MM payroll. The Twins can at best be characterized as a dark horse in the Bauer market, but they’re a data- and tech-focused contender that has been willing to take on some risk, so they check plenty of Bauer’s boxes.

The Twins’ playoff rotation would look pretty suspect right now if one of Maeda, Berrios or Pineda went down, so it seems more sensible to add a fourth starter with a playoff-rotation ceiling than a run-of-the-mill innings eater. We put the Twins down as our pick for Corey Kluber on our Top 50 free agent list, but they’d make sense for anyone in that high-caliber reclamation bucket (e.g. James Paxton). A more straightforward Jake Odorizzi reunion would also work, and the trade market could again create some opportunities; Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray and Blake Snell are all already seeing their names circulate on the rumor mill. The Twins reportedly offered Darvish $100MM as a free agent, and they were interested in Gray when the Yankees initially shopped him two years ago.

The Twins’ current slate of losses in the bullpen are tough to overlook. Trevor May has quietly been a lights-out power arm for them, and the potential departures of Romo and Clippard eliminate two more quality setup men. Clippard proved vital in 2020, as the Twins used the changeup specialist as a big weapon against left-handed batters early in the year when they were still absent a lefty setup complement to southpaw Taylor Rogers.

Speaking of Rogers, he’s coming off something of a down season and will likely see his arbitration price tick north of $5MM, though it’s tough to imagine a non-tender of the 29-year-old. Rogers, breakout righty Tyler Duffey and slider-spamming waiver gem Matt Wisler figure to handle plenty of high-leverage spots moving forward, but it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t bring in a veteran or two.

Reunions with any of May, Romo or Clippard seem plausible, but with regard to May, it’s important to note that the most expensive free-agent contract the Twins have promised to a reliever was Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal. The club spent big to keep incumbent closers Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins at one point, but this is not an organization that has been willing to commit high-dollar contracts to free-agent relievers. If May’s elite velocity and strikeout rates make him one of the market’s buzzier relievers, as we expect at MLBTR, he could price himself past a point at which we’ve seen this team spend for a reliever in an open-market setting.

The extent to which any club will spend this winter can’t be known, but owner Jim Pohlad’s comments have been less grim than some of his ownership counterparts around the game. The Twins were one of the few organizations in MLB not to make an aggressive wave of layoffs and were among the first to commit to paying minor leaguers the weekly $400 stipend through season’s end.

“The pandemic is hard on everybody, and we have to have some degree of compassion and empathy in that regard as how difficult it is on individuals,” Pohlad told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III after the season. “If we are able to continue to pay people, we want to do that. It is a cultural philosophy.”

Pohlad also acknowledged to Neal that he has not yet gotten over another early playoff exit, and Falvey gave a similar stance while talking of taking the team to the next level. Asked about a potential major free-agent splash, Pohlad was guarded but not completely dismissive:

We could, but we don’t know what the market for such a player is going to be. In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here.

Perhaps Pohlad saying the Twins “could” make a splash was purely lip service. Certainly, pushing the notion of players sharing the risk doesn’t seem like a portent for a fast-and-loose spending spree. But the Twins might have a bit of wiggle room if they move on from Rosario, and it’s hard to imagine that yet another pair of playoff losses hasn’t enhanced the urgency to break that streak.

The Twins will need to determine what to do with the veritable engine of the “Bomba Squad” (Cruz) and look for some supporting characters on the pitching staff. As is the case with so many clubs following this year’s absence of fans, the primary unknown for the Twins is the extent to which ownership will spend to bring about those changes. Their payroll picture is in good enough shape that it’s reasonable to expect the Twins to be in on some mid-tier free agents and affordable trade targets regardless. And if Pohlad is willing to surprise again a year after spending on Donaldson, they could emerge as a dark horse for some bigger names.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By | at

Thanks to the expanded postseason format, the Brewers were a playoff team in 2020, despite a 29-31 record and a lack of offensive production.  The club now heads into the winter looking to answer a lot of questions throughout the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $205MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $35MM through 2022
  • Freddy Peralta, RP: $13.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; deal also contains $8MM club option for 2026)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club/mutual option for 2022, though buyout value could vary)
  • Josh Lindblom, SP: $5.5MM through 2022
  • Brent Suter, RP: $1.5MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking to build on postseason appearances in both 2018 and 2019, the Brewers made a number of short-term, relatively inexpensive signings last winter to reinforce the roster after Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departed in free agency.  It was a sound plan on paper and, overall, it worked considering that the Brew Crew again reached the playoffs.

The issue with such a strategy, however, is that the Brewers are now facing another reload on the open market.  Obviously the Brewers couldn’t have foreseen last winter that their already fairly tight payroll situation would impacted by a season of major revenue losses, but their budget figures to be even tighter in 2021.  It doesn’t seem likely that the team will match its (pre-adjusted schedule) 2020 payroll of roughly $97.5MM.

Between their roughly $47.5MM of guaranteed contracts, the above arbitration projections and a handful of pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster, Milwaukee is looking at nearly $81MM in projected payroll.  It remains to be seen how much money president of baseball operations David Stearns will have at his disposal for new additions.  On the plus side, Stearns has shown himself to be adept at finding low-cost gems in trades or free agency, so this will be nothing new for him.  More funds could be freed up in the form of non-tenders, as the Brewers could reasonably part ways with more than half of their 10-player arbitration class.

Cutting ties with Omar Narvaez would leave the Brew Crew without their starting catcher, yet Narvaez had such a tough offensive season that the team may decide he isn’t worth the investment.  Jace Peterson, Alex Claudio, and (especially) Daniel Vogelbach were all pretty productive in limited action with Milwaukee last season, but since lots of similar players are expected to be available in a flooded non-tender market, the Brewers could look for cheaper options elsewhere.  Corey Knebel struggled over 13 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, and with a projected $5.125MM arbitration salary, Knebel might be deemed too expensive to retain given the risk that he doesn’t get back to his old All-Star form.

Speaking of All-Star relievers, Josh Hader is obviously in no danger of being non-tendered, yet could Hader have already thrown his last pitch in a Milwaukee uniform?  The club is reportedly open to hearing trade offers, but as Stearns said in September, being willing to listen to another team’s proposal is much different than actively exploring deals. “We’ve never really looked to move [Hader], and I don’t really anticipate that changing,” Stearns said at the time.

Some might argue that Devin Williams’ emergence as a shutdown reliever makes Hader at least somewhat expendable, though Williams also serves as an argument for keeping Hader; having two outstanding relievers more fully reinforces a pitching staff that traditionally doesn’t extend starters deep into games in the name of efficient run prevention.

Past Milwaukee staffs have kept a pretty loose definition of “starter” and “reliever” rather than sticking to strict roles, though going into 2021, the Brew Crew has four starters in place.  Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted front-of-the-rotation results last season, while advanced metrics indicated that Josh Lindblom pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate.  Adrian Houser struggled down the stretch after some good early outings, but the right-hander looks to have the inside track on a rotation spot.

The fifth spot could be filled internally.  Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, or Brent Suter are all candidates to take the job themselves, or perhaps they’ll share starts (or work as bulk pitchers behind an opener).  As much as the Brewers like being flexible with their hurlers, they’ll surely look to add more depth, and re-signing Brett Anderson could be a possibility.  Anderson had a good year in 2020, but since he is entering his age-33 season and doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers that many teams covet, he could be available to the Brewers on another one-year deal.  If not Anderson, expect Milwaukee to target similar veterans on short-term contracts.

The Brewers’ first round of financial decisions this offseason resulted in four declined club options, most notably the team passing on their side of a mutual option with long-time star Ryan Braun.  While not an unexpected move given Braun’s age, price tag, and his average hitting numbers, it is still noteworthy that Braun’s 14-season run with the franchise is done — barring another contract, that is.  Braun said in July that he was leaning towards playing in 2021, and if that stance hasn’t changed, it’s possible the two sides could reunite on an inexpensive one-year deal.  There might not be action on this front, of course, until the Brewers know if the DH will be available to National League teams next season.

Further complicating Stearns’ winter business is the lack of certainty at almost every position around the diamond.  The Brewers are looking for almost a lineup-wide rebound.  Each of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias and Narvaez struggled to varying extents, while Lorenzo Cain is expected to return after opting out of the 2020 season just five games into the year.  Yelich, Cain, and Hiura are the clear everyday building blocks, and Garcia will likely stay due to a lack of trade value.  Urias is still part of the Brewers’ future, and his lackluster 2020 numbers were likely impacted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis that sidelined him for much of Summer Camp.

Where Urias plays next season depends on what the Brewers do with Orlando Arcia.  The former top prospect had a solid offensive showing (.260/.317/.416 in 189 PA) that resulted in a career-best 96 wRC+, but  this could be too little, too late.  Arcia is another player that could plausibly be non-tendered, but since Urias had yet to establish himself at the MLB level, the Brewers could see value in keeping Arcia around to hold the fort at shortstop.

That could leave Urias in line to play some third base, and Milwaukee will look to augment the position with an addition like last winter’s signing of Eric Sogard (ideally with more return on investment, given Sogard’s lack of production).  Players like Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Brad Miller may be within the Brewers’ price range, and Gyorko hit well enough that one would imagine the team would be interested in bringing him back.  Of the slightly more expensive options, Tommy La Stella could also be a target.  Even further up the financial ladder, the Brewers would make some sense as a bidder for Ha-Seong Kim once the Korean star is posted.  MLBTR projects Kim to land a $40MM contract, but for a 25-year-old with Kim’s skill set, potential, and multi-positional ability, Milwaukee could decide to take the plunge.

Even moreso than Arcia, Narvaez’s chances of being tendered a contract are helped by a lack of other options, as the Brewers would have to either acquire another backstop or roll with the in-house trio of Manny Pina, Jacob Nottingham, and David Freitas.  Known for his offense more than his defense heading into 2020, Narvez had a reversal of a year that saw his bat falter but his pitch-framing rise to elite levels.  An argument can be made that Milwaukee should hang onto Narvaez just to see what they really have in him, and if his hitting can recover in something of a more normal season.

Vogelbach is the favorite for first base if he is tendered a contract, but given his lack of track record, the Brew Crew could try to take advantage of a depressed free agent market to land a more proven hitter at something of a discount.  Carlos Santana stands out as a big bat whose stock is low coming off a down year in 2020.  Most of the aforementioned third base options also have first base experience, and Braun might also be a candidate for first base if the Brewers re-signed him.

If this seems like a lot of wait-and-see for a team hoping to contend, at least it helps the Brewers that their chief rivals in the very competitive NL Central all have big questions of their own.  Should 2020 prove to be an aberration and Yelich, Cain, Narvaez, and others all hit at something close to their past levels of performance, the Brew Crew will be a better team based on internal improvement alone.  Combine this with hitting on a few more short-term acquisitions, and a fourth straight postseason trip could be in the offing.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

By | at

Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

Transaction Retrospection: White Sox’s Yasmani Grandal Signing

By | at

On this date a year ago, the White Sox signed All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal to a four-year, $73MM free agent contract. That proved to be the biggest splash of an eventful 2019-20 offseason for the South Siders, who also extended face of the franchise (and future MVP) José Abreu and brought in Dallas Keuchel and Edwin Encarnación.

Chicago’s active offseason clearly signaled they believed their rebuild was through. The hope was that Grandal’s two-way prowess would help solidify the pitching staff and add some offense to a lineup that had been below-average in 2019. In the first year of the deal, the 32-year-old delivered.

Grandal posted a .230/.351/.422 slash line with eight home runs over 194 plate appearances. A spike in strikeouts contributed to that meager .230 batting average, but Grandal more than offset that by drawing plenty of walks and hitting for power. His 117 wRC+ indicates he was seventeen points better than the league average hitter this past season. That’s right in line with his career production and not too far off the pace of his prior two years.

Single-season defensive metrics are quite fluky; that’s all the more true in a season prorated to sixty games. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting Grandal also rated as a top five pitch framer in the sport in 2020, per Statcast. That’s par for the course, as the former first-rounder perennially rates as one of the league’s best at stealing strikes. He also cut down six of thirteen attempted base stealers. There’s no question Grandal was a key piece of Chicago’s 35-25 record, which was enough to qualify for the expanded postseason format.

Grandal’s continued presence on the roster is a big reason the Sox aren’t expected to re-sign James McCann, who profiles as the second-best catcher on the market this offseason on the heels of a monster 2020 effort. Wherever McCann ends up, the White Sox should still have one of the league’s best catching situations. GM Rick Hahn and the rest of the front office have to be pleased with the initial return on their biggest investment last winter.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top