MLBTR Originals

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 11:59pm CDT

If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 8:16pm CDT

Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.

In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).

Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.

No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.

Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.

It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.

Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).

Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.

What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.

While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Importance Of Scott Kingery

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 7:18pm CDT

In a spirited attempt to repair their position player group and snap a seven-year playoff drought, the Phillies added four new regulars to their lineup during the offseason. The big-ticket acquisitions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura left the club with just four holdovers. Of the returning quartet, only first baseman Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have produced in 2019. On the other hand, this has been a horrid year for third baseman Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who didn’t exactly comprise a confidence-inspiring pair entering the campaign.

The 26-year-old Franco broke into the league in earnest in 2015, when he looked like a long-term core piece in the making during an 80-game, 335-plate appearance debut. Since then, though, success has been hard to come by for Franco. He turned in an 0-for-4 performance in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, dropping his batting line to an inept .215/.281/.393 through 210 tries this year. Franco’s 63 wRC+ ranks as the majors’ eighth-worst mark among 167 qualifying hitters.

While 2019 has gone poorly for Franco, it has been even worse for Herrera. Not only has Herrera failed on the field, where he has hit .222/.268/.341 (67 wRC+) in 139 trips to the plate, but he’s amid a troubling situation off it. The league placed Herrera on administrative leave Tuesday after he was arrested Monday on a charge of simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident.

It’s too early to jump to conclusions on Herrera’s arrest at this point, but we can judge him on what he has done between the lines. The fact is the 27-year-old’s production has been a letdown since 2018. Before then, he was a quality player who earned a five-year, $30.5MM extension from the franchise in 2016.

The Phillies have given Franco and Herrera plenty of rope so far in their careers, but they’re looking less and less like answers at their respective positions. And Philadelphia is no longer a rebuilding team – it’s in first place in the NL East, which figures to be a multi-team dogfight through September – meaning it must consider making moves to improve at third and in center. Luckily for the club, it may have an in-house solution for one of those spots in utility player Scott Kingery.

The 25-year-old Kingery opened the season as a reserve, but he has taken on a prominent role rotating between the hot corner and center since he returned from a month-long stay on the injured list. Going back to his May 19 activation, Kingery has started nine of the Phillies’ 11 games. Now, if he proves capable of performing like a legit full-timer, he’d take some of the pressure off executives Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail heading into the July 31 trade deadline.

Philadelphia believes in Kingery, evidenced by the six-year, $24MM guarantee it gave him in March 2018. Kingery was a top 100 prospect at that point, but he had never even taken a major league at-bat. That inexperience was on display during a rough rookie season for Kingery, who struggled to a .226/.267/.338 line (62 wRC+) with 126 strikeouts against 24 walks in 484 tries.

So far, the sophomore version of Kingery is trumping his Year 1 numbers through 72 PA. However, his .328/.375/.567 slash (148 wRC+) looks as if it’s built on a house of cards. Having drawn a meager three walks against 20 strikeouts, Kingery is getting by on a sure-to-plummet .432 batting average on balls in play and a power surge that also looks unlikely to last. With three homers, Kingery’s fly balls are leaving the yard at an 18.8 percent rate – a figure he only approached once in the minors (in 2017). As a Double-A player that season, Kingery recorded a .295 ISO. Coming into this year, that was the only time Kingery had even neared a .200 ISO, let alone blown by it. With that in mind, don’t bet on Kingery maintaining his current ISO (.239).

Although there are reasons for pessimism regarding Kingery’s hot start, that’s not to say he can’t be a valuable regular for the Phillies now or in the future. It would be a colossal boon for the club if it happened immediately, considering its remade offense has been closer to middle of the pack than great this season. That’s largely because of Franco, Herrera and corner outfielder Nick Williams, who have combined for minus-1.1 fWAR in 414 PA. The Phillies can’t count on those three – nor can they expect a breakthrough from unproven outfielder Roman Quinn, 26, or McCutchen to man his old stomping grounds in center consistently – leaving the onus on Kingery to assert himself in a full-time role. If Kingery falls on his face, the Phillies may have to deal with the burden of finding two new regulars leading up to the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Trey Mancini

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2019 at 6:24pm CDT

As the Orioles begin what will be a lengthy rebuilding process, it’s fair to assume they’re open to offers on virtually any player on their roster with a modicum of Major League experience. This extends even to players like Trey Mancini, who under some circumstances would seem like a potential building block.

Mancini burst onto the scene with an impressive 2017 campaign before seeing his production drop to sub-replacement levels (-0.2 fWAR) in 2018. Aside from minor improvements to his swinging strike rate and walk rate, Mancini’s numbers dropped pretty much across the board in every major batting category from 2017 to 2018. This could be attributed to an old-fashioned sophomore slump as pitchers got a book on a young hitter, or perhaps Mancini suffered from the added mental stress of being caught up in the Orioles’ disastrous 115-loss season.

Perhaps the most telling number, however, was Mancini’s .285 BABIP in 2018. It marked a big decline from his .352 BABIP in 2017, which had a particularly deleterious effect on a player who had such extreme trouble keeping the ball off the ground. Mancini’s 52.9% ground-ball rate over the 2017-18 seasons was the sixth-highest total of any qualified player in that stretch, so when Mancini’s grounders weren’t sneaking through the infield with as much regularity, it had a significant impact on his production. This issue wasn’t a new one for Mancini, who also had high grounder rates throughout his minor league career.

Almost two months into the 2019 season, however, Mancini has done a much better job of driving the ball through the air. His grounder rate this season stands at only 38.3%, plus a .342 BABIP indicates that Mancini’s lesser number of ground balls are sneaking through the infield. Beyond just getting more good luck from the BABIP gods, Mancini’s 25.3% line drive rate, 36.4% fly ball rate, and 37.7% hard-hit ball rates are all career bests, and his .365 xwOBA is a virtual match for his .369 wOBA.

These underlying factors are a big reason why the 2019 version of Mancini is looking like a more sustainably productive player than the the 2017 model. The 27-year-old is hitting .295/.345/.529 with 10 home runs, a 128 wRC+ and 132 OPS + through 229 plate appearances. With this production looking up, Baltimore could decide now is the time to sell high on what could be its best position-player trade chip.

It’s worth noting, of course, that the Orioles are under no pressure to trade Mancini by July 31 — he isn’t eligible for arbitration until this coming offseason, meaning that he is under team control through the 2022 season. It also isn’t totally out of the question that the O’s hang onto Mancini altogether, though the club’s timeline for a return to contention doesn’t really fit Mancini’s age and skillset.

Over his two-plus seasons in the big leagues, Mancini has played 793 innings as a first baseman and 1808 2/3 innings as a corner outfielder, despite being drafted as a first baseman out of Notre Dame in 2013 and never seeing any outfield action over his four minor league seasons. With Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo holding down the first base/DH spots, the Orioles deployed Mancini in the outfield as a way of getting his bat into the lineup, with predictably subpar defensive results.

Mancini has a -12.9 UZR/150 and minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder, making him an ill fit at the position now, let alone in the future. He has been seeing more time at first base recently with Davis on the IL, and there’s really no reason for Baltimore to not continue playing Mancini at his original position going forward; he wouldn’t be the first player to take his hitting to another level after being relieved from a troublesome defensive situation.

While Orioles GM Mike Elias surely hopes he can have the club on track in shorter order, the fact remains that the O’s might still not be full-fledged contenders by the 2023 season, given the extensive nature of the team’s rebuild. At that point, Mancini will be in his age-31 season and in all likelihood a full-time first baseman/DH, making it a better bet that he will be starting into a decline phase just as the Orioles as a whole plan to be rising up.

Waiting for the winter to explore Mancini trades would theoretically expand Baltimore’s market for the young slugger, since dealing him now would limit the O’s to only contending teams….or would it? Mancini’s extra years of control make him an interesting option for teams who might be riding the fence between being a pure buyer or a pure seller. Mancini could fit on a team like the White Sox, who aren’t contenders this season but surely have an eye towards taking a step forward in 2020 (especially now that Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Lucas Giolito are all breaking out).

Holding off on a Mancini deal also carries risk beyond just the normal concerns of a potential dropoff. As we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams are putting less and less value on defensively-limited players and first base/DH types, no matter how big a bat they might be swinging. Nicholas Castellanos (a free agent this winter) has far less team control than Mancini, but is almost exactly the same age and a much more established MLB hitter, yet the Tigers have had no luck shopping Castellanos for over a year.

Plus, once the offseason hits and the free agent market opens, teams with a first base or corner outfield vacancy might prefer to just sign a productive veteran at a relatively low price rather than give up prospects to Baltimore for Mancini. This could open the door to a more immediate trade, as the urgency of a pennant race might encourage teams to give up some solid minor league talent for a quality bat like Mancini, with his years of control as a significant bonus.

Looking at teams who could fit as trade partners for Mancini, I considered both contenders and non-contenders (who were planning to be competitive sooner rather than later) with both outfield/first base needs for 2019 and longer-term needs at first base going forward. More teams could certainly emerge as injuries, slumps, and other factors impact this summer’s deadline business, though a few clubs stand out as possible candidates at the moment.

Astros: Mancini would help them now, though Houston isn’t exactly hurting for bats, and the Astros have several interesting young names (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) waiting in the wings.

Red Sox: Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are pending free agents, and J.D. Martinez could join them if he chooses to opt out of the final three years and $62.5MM on his contract. Boston’s first base spot has been seen as a potential eventual landing spot for either Rafael Devers or Michael Chavis, though those two emerging stars may end up at third base and second base, and prospect Bobby Dalbec may be at least a year away. A case can be made for the Red Sox to pursue Mancini at the deadline, though with JDM, Moreland, and Pearce all still in the fold, Boston is more likely to wait until the offseason to address its first base/DH situation.

Nationals: On paper, Washington fits since Ryan Zimmerman’s $18MM club option isn’t likely to be picked up for 2020. In practice, all the bad blood between the Nationals and Orioles stemming from the ongoing legal dispute over broadcast rights makes any sort of trade between the two Beltway rivals next to impossible.

White Sox: As mentioned earlier, Mancini could fit nicely into an emerging White Sox lineup. Yonder Alonso is unlikely to have his club option exercised, and Jose Abreu is slated for free agency at the moment (though the Sox certainly want to keep Abreu on the south side). If Abreu does stay, he and Mancini would provide a lot of pop from the first base/DH positions.

Mariners: Something of a similar case to the White Sox, as Seattle also aren’t contenders now, but their quest to “re-imagine” their roster wasn’t seen as a long-term endeavor. Edwin Encarnacion could himself be traded by the deadline, and if he does stay, the M’s are more likely to buy out his 2020 option for $5MM than exercise it for $20MM. The surprising Daniel Vogelbach has definitely slugged his way into Seattle’s 2020 plans, so he could join Mancini splitting time between first base and designated hitter. Jay Bruce is also likely to still be in the mix barring a trade, though Bruce’s presence wouldn’t stop GM Jerry Dipoto from picking up a player like Mancini.

Rangers: Between Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, and even top prospect Willie Calhoun, Texas already has multiple players who might be best suited for DH duty, and Ronald Guzman is still young and controllable at first base. Texas also doesn’t have a deep farm system, and might not be willing to meet Baltimore’s asking price for Mancini, or maybe even any team’s price tag on any notable midseason upgrade since the Rangers weren’t fully committing to contending this year. Nevertheless, the surprising Rangers are maybe an interesting outside-the-box candidate for Mancini since the team has stayed in the wild card race. Acquiring Mancini is both a go-for-it type of move, while also serving as a long-term piece. Mancini would also give Texas some much-needed right-handed lineup balance.

Brewers: Only two teams have received less bWAR from the first base position this season than Milwaukee, Jesus Aguilar’s breakout 2018 season has given way to some major struggles this year, while Eric Thames’ hot start has given way to an ice-cold May. It would be a bold move to see the Brewers move on entirely from Aguilar less than a year after his big season, though the club doesn’t have much margin for error in a tight NL Central race. Like Texas, the Brew Crew also doesn’t have a lot of minor league talent to spare in trades.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Downside Of Being The 26th Man

By Steve Adams | May 30, 2019 at 1:47pm CDT

In theory, the “26th man” doubleheader rule that MLB implemented in the 2012-16 wave of collective bargaining should work for all parties involved. Teams get an extra player, frequently a pitcher, to help manage the workload of the day’s pair of games. The player promoted to the big leagues gets a day of MLB service time and picks up a day of big league pay, in addition to the opportunity to make a nice impression on his organization. If the player in question is a pitcher, other members of the staff are spared from having to pitch on short rest and/or in extended outings.

It all sounds good! Well, it sounds good to most players. But what about the rare instances in which a player promoted to the Major Leagues as a 26th man ends up incurring an injury during that game? As Reds left-hander Cody Reed demonstrated this week, the rule isn’t exactly perfect.

Reed was summoned to serve as Cincinnati’s 26th man in a Monday twin bill with the Pirates and performed well, giving the Reds a pair of scoreless relief innings in the second game of the day. In doing so, he continued an impressive year that has seen him pitch 20 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball in Triple-A and another 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in the Majors. Unfortunately, he also sustained a strained medial collateral ligament in his left knee. The Reds announced that Reed won’t throw for the next 10 to 14 days, which obviously meant a trip to the injured list.

The problem for Reed, though, is that because he was not technically on the 25-man roster as the 26th man in a doubleheader, he’ll recover from that injury on the minor league injured list rather than the Major League injured list. Logic would seemingly dictate that a player injured while performing in a Major League game would rehab that injury while receiving the benefits of the MLB IL — that is, service time and MLB pay. That won’t be the case for Reed or future players who are injured while serving as the 26th man, though.

It may not seem like a major distinction, but consider the discrepancy between the prorated Major League minimum salary and the monthly salaries that a players make in Triple-A. Reed is fortunate in the sense that he has enough big league service time to be on a decent split contract; he’ll earn $145K in the minors this season versus $565K in the Majors. (A player with less big league time or no big league time would not be earning as much.)

That’s a fairly sizable difference between what he’d earn in the Majors versus the minors — particularly for a player who has yet to establish himself as a big leaguer. If he requires a couple of throwing sessions after his shutdown period, he could be out for three weeks or upwards of a month. At that point, the prorated MLB salary would top his prorated Triple-A salary by anywhere from $40-60K.

To be clear, the Reds aren’t doing anything wrong by placing him on the minor league injured list and actually didn’t have a choice. That’s the way the rules were bargained. As a concession for allowing a 26th player to be brought up for a doubleheader and earn a day of service and big league pay, it was agreed that there would be no technical transaction associated with the move:

(dd) Any Club that expands its roster for these purposes must return to a 25-man Active Roster immediately after the conclusion of the second game (i.e., a post-game roster adjustment). The recall and waiver requirements and limitations contained in these Rules shall not apply to the 26th Player if returned to his previous Minor League club for these purposes. Moreover, a player’s addition to the 25-man Active roster for these purposes shall not affect the expiration of any 10-day period that may be required by Rule 11(b)(1). The return of the player to his previous Minor League club shall not be considered an assignment (i.e., to a Minor League club, an optional assignment under these Rules, or otherwise). A Club may return to a 25-man Active Roster by removing a player other than the 26th Player only if the Club’s addition of the 26th Player complied with all applicable Rules and the Basic Agreement, and the Club’s subsequent removal of the other player from its roster complied with all applicable Rules and the Basic Agreement (and both of those transactions will not be covered by the exception created by this Rule 2(c)(2)(A)(ii)).

(ee) The 26th Player shall be paid one day of Major League salary and shall receive one day of Major League service. Such day shall not be counted for purposes of counting days on option pursuant to the Articles XIX(E) and XXI(B) of the Basic Agreement or Rule 11(c).

In essence, the rules stipulate that a player must be on the 40-man roster to serve as the 26th man but is not technically recalled from the minors when he does so. That’s important to note; were it not for that distinction, Reed would not even have been eligible to pitch in the Majors that day. He’d been optioned down just eight days prior and, as such, wasn’t eligible for recall under normal circumstances. The Reds couldn’t even have sent someone else down if they’d wanted to, as keeping Reed up would not have “complied with all applicable Rules and the Basic Agreement.” In that regard, the quirks of this rule both benefited Reed by allowing him to be in the Majors on Monday and hurt him by disallowing him from rehabbing on the Major League injured list.

This is likely the precise type of scenario that concerned owners when pushing for these stipulations during negotiations. A more extreme example could see a player called up to make a one-off start in the nightcap of a doubleheader only to blow out his arm and require Tommy John surgery. That’d turn what might’ve been a roughly $3K spot start for ownership into a $500K+ salary on the injured list for the majority of the season (in addition to the accompanying service time).

That owners sought protection against these injury scenarios is understandable, but it’s still counter-intuitive that a player injured in a Major League game would be deprived of the benefits afforded to those on a big league roster. Had Reed simply been called up to the 25-man roster for a one day to lengthen the ’pen in a normal game and incurred this exact same injury, he’d go on the MLB IL and receive that service time and salary. That’s a risk that clubs run any other time they dip into their farm system for a one-day depth move, but it strangely doesn’t apply when playing multiple games in the same day.

Perhaps this is much ado about something that occurs so rarely that it’s not worth fretting over, but Cody Reed probably doesn’t think so.

Should The Braves Trade Ender Inciarte?

By Jeff Todd | May 30, 2019 at 12:20pm CDT

Well, you see the question in the headline. Should they? In brief, in my opinion: no.

This is the sort of query we get a lot from readers. When there’s depth at a position, it’s natural to wonder whether some of it could be used in a swap. We’ve been asked quite a bit about Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte, who struggled before hitting the injured list and has now perhaps been indirectly Wally Pipp’ed by exciting young slugger Austin Riley.

Thing is, Inciarte is no Pipp. When Pipp was eclipsed by Lou Gehrig, he was a 32-year-old first baseman mired in a slump after years of inconsistent offensive production. Inciarte? Ironically, his 63 OPS+ is a near-match to Pipp’s 62 OPS+ from that fateful 1925 season. Otherwise, they are nothing alike. Inciarte is a high-grade defensive outfielder and baserunner. Even if he’s a slightly below-average true-talent hitter, which seems like a fair characterization, he’s a valuable roster piece.

I admit it, the Pipp thing isn’t really even an apt analogy in the first place. But that only goes to prove the point on Inciarte.

Take a look at this Braves roster. Ronald Acuna is capable of playing center field and probably doing whatever else he happens to feel like on a baseball field. Nick Markakis is entrenched in right for the rest of the season and Riley’s bat isn’t coming out of the lineup unless and until MLB pitchers figure him out. On the reserve side, Matt Joyce has been a useful lefty bench bat; Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo are infielders by trade.

Inciarte still fits just fine — quite nicely, in fact, especially given that Riley is still learning the outfield on the fly. Inciarte could enter late in games as a pinch-runner and/or defensive replacement for Riley, leaving the Braves with an excellent defensive alignment. And let’s not forget that Inciarte has a history of solid output as an everyday player. If there’s an injury or a sudden downturn, it’d be awfully nice to have him around.

Making a roster adjustment to accommodate him shouldn’t be too hard. Joyce is a bit of a luxury for a team that has so many firm regulars. He has been tasked with a limited role, serving mostly as a pinch-hitter and logging only 35 1/3 innings in the field. It’s not as if Inciarte isn’t capable enough against right-handed pitching himself; for his career, he’s a .289/.339/.404 hitter with the platoon advantage.

If the Braves prefer to hang onto Joyce, and maintain their overall slate of players, they can option down Camargo. Heck, Culberson is hitting like he’d belong on one of Gehrig’s old teams, so expanding his role would make sense regardless. With Riley on the roster, there’s a ready-made third-base fill-in to spell Josh Donaldson. And Camargo is really struggling at the plate. He has seen an erosion in plate discipline. He’s putting the ball in the air more but not doing so with authority, leaving him with a meager power output (.111 ISO) and low BABIP (.244) that’s not entirely undeserved. There’s good reason to think he’ll ultimately improve upon his ugly .213/.261/.324 slash, but some time working out the kinks at Triple-A wouldn’t be the worst idea.

The future considerations also weigh in favor of keeping Inciarte around. If you’ll indulge my strained comparison yet further … well, Riley isn’t the Iron Horse. No, I’m not talking about the attributes of the players here. It’s about the nature of the roster situation. Riley wasn’t called up to replace Donaldson, who unlike Pipp has been both effective and healthy this year. But third base is Riley’s natural position. And Donaldson will be a free agent at season’s end. Markakis is also a free agent. Really, when you look ahead to the Braves’ 2020 roster, there’s just one sure thing in the outfield: Acuna.

Given that situation, keeping the respected and familiar Inciarte on hand would make a ton of sense. He could re-take his semi-regular role in center or platoon with a right-handed-hitting player (perhaps even Adam Duvall, who is still stuck at Triple-A). That’d help the Braves bridge the gap to Cristian Pache and other young talents.

Inciarte’s extension calls for a reasonable $7MM salary in 2020, with $8MM for the following year and a $9MM club option thereafter. That’s still a nice price tag for a thrifty Atlanta organization. If they swing some big trades, signings, and/or promotions and no longer wish to keep Inciarte, the contract ought still to be movable.

To be sure, moving Inciarte should (and no doubt would) be considered if there’s an appealing-enough offer. But making a trade now would likely mean selling low. It’d cut into the team’s depth and flexibility, this season and in the near future. And it probably isn’t necessary — or shouldn’t be, anyway. The club is still loaded with young talent, not all of which can be maintained easily within the constraints of MLB’s roster rules. And it shouldn’t need to shed salary (or avoid taking it on) to acquire any desired mid-season upgrades, since the team expressly reserved payroll capacity for the middle of the season.

This Date In Transactions History: One Giant Acquisition

By Connor Byrne | May 29, 2019 at 8:54pm CDT

It was May 29, 2010, nine years ago today, that the Giants made a decision which helped propel them to a National League West title and a World Series championship. Sitting a few games over .500 and facing their seventh straight season without a playoff berth, the club sought a right-handed spark for a lefty-heavy outfield. The Giants found their answer in 33-year-old veteran Pat Burrell, whom they signed to a minor league deal that came with no risk but ultimately paid significant dividends.

Burrell began his career in 2000 with the Phillies, who drafted him first overall in 1998, and wound up enjoying a successful run with the organization. Between his debut and his final season with the Phillies in 2008, Burrell headed to the plate 5,388 times and batted .257/.367/.485 (120 wRC+) with 251 home runs and 16.8 wins above replacement. Burrell’s Phillies tenure concluded with a World Series win over his next team, the Rays.

Tampa Bay brought Burrell in on a two-year, $16MM contract in January 2009, but the deal proved to be an unmitigated disaster for the franchise. Burrell was among the majors’ worst players in Year 1 of the deal; after Burrell got off to a similarly poor start through 24 games in 2010, the Rays designated him for assignment before releasing him with $9MM left on his contract.

Tampa Bay likely figured Burrell was shot when it parted with him. Little did the Rays know he’d end up as a dirt-cheap contributor on a title-winning club just a few months later. San Francisco owned a 29-24 record when it promoted Burrell to the majors on June 4, and it went 63-46 the rest of the way to win its division by two games over San Diego. Pat the Bat played an instrumental role in the Giants’ narrow defeat of the Padres. During a 96-game, 341-plate appearance renaissance, Burrell slashed .266/.364/.509 (136 wRC+) with 18 HRs and 2.8 WAR as the Giants’ primary left fielder.

Burrell’s numbers dropped in San Francisco’s playoff series wins over the Braves, Phillies and Rangers, but it didn’t faze the Giants. The franchise took home its first championship since 1954, back when it was the New York Giants, and went on to win two more in the ensuing four seasons. Burrell wasn’t part of either of those 2012 or ’14 clubs, but he did return to the Giants for his final season in 2011 – this time on a major league contract – and log solid production in 219 trips to the plate. Almost a decade after the Giants first signed Burrell, it’s fair to say he still ranks as one of the best in-season minor league signings ever.

The Long-Awaited Arrival Of Lucas Giolito

By Connor Byrne | May 29, 2019 at 8:03pm CDT

As a former first-round pick (16th overall in 2012) who later became one of Major League Baseball’s premier prospects, there was optimism right-hander Lucas Giolito would develop into a front-line starter in the pros. It just took longer than expected. Seven years after the Nationals selected him, it looks as if Giolito is breaking through in a White Sox uniform.

Giolito joined the White Sox in December 2016 as part of one of that offseason’s highest-profile trades. It was a polarizing deal for the Nationals, with many enthusiastic about their addition of outfielder Adam Eaton – who was controllable for an eminently reasonable $38.4MM over a half-decade at the time. Others ripped the Nationals for giving up too much to acquire Eaton, for whom they surrendered Giolito and a pair of other quality righty prospects in Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning.

A couple years later, it’s fair to say the trade hasn’t worked out quite as Washington hoped. Eaton has been mostly good in a Nationals uniform when on the field, but injuries limited him to 23 games in 2017 and 95 last year. Durability hasn’t been an issue for Eaton this season, though he’s not yet producing at prior levels. Worsening matters, the Nats haven’t won a playoff series since adding Eaton, and the disappointing club’s currently on track to miss out on October ball for the second straight season.

As for the rebuilding White Sox, the results of the Eaton deal have been mixed. Lopez has been inconsistent since he debuted with them in 2017, while Dunning – although still a good prospect – just underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Fortunately for the White Sox, Giolito may be here to save the day, which is somewhat unexpected considering the struggles he endured in both the minors and majors over the past couple years.

Giolito pitched his first full major league season in 2018, racking up 32 starts and 173 1/3 innings, but it wasn’t pretty. He ranked dead last among qualified starters in ERA (6.13), FIP (5.56) and K/BB ratio (1.39). Consequently, there wasn’t much optimism centering on Giolito entering the 2019 campaign. But the 24-year-old worked diligently over the winter to turn around his fortunes, as James Fegan of The Athletic detailed in February, and has reaped the rewards of a change in delivery.

Giolito got off to a slow start through his first five outings of the season, evidenced by the 5.32 ERA he possessed and the 12 walks he issued through 23 2/3 innings as of May 2. But over his five most recent starts, Giolito has delivered excellent results; he yielded five earned runs on 17 hits over that 36 1/3-frame span and posted a 39:8 K/BB ratio. In his crowning moment of that stretch, Giolito fired a complete game, four-hit road shutout against Houston’s incredible offense on May 23. Thanks in part to that start, Giolito owns a superb 2.85 ERA/2.84 FIP with 10.35 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9 across 60 innings on the season. He has already accounted for two wins above replacement after finishing in the minuses in that category in 2018.

Perhaps you’re still skeptical of Giolito, who did face the below-averages offenses of the Blue Jays (twice), Indians and Royals during his recent stretch of brilliance. It’s hard to deny there has been major progress, though. Here’s a look at some of the key strides Giolito has made this year…

Throwing more strikes: According to Baseball-Reference, Giolito threw strikes 60.5 percent of the time last year. That ranked 116th out of 121 qualifiers and helped lead to 4.57 walks per nine innings. He’s now generating strikes at a 66.3 percent clip, good for 31st out of 130 hurlers. Giolito has also seen his zone percentage climb from 47.2 to 52.6 percent, and his first-pitch strike rate has shot from 55.4 to 62.0.
Amassing far more strikeouts and whiffs: Giolito drew swinging strikes at an 8.3 percent clip in 2018. That number’s now at 12.8 percent. This year’s version of Giolito ranks 19th among all starters in that category. It helps explain the meteoric rise in his K/9, which was 6.49 in 2018.
An increase in velocity and a remade repertoire: Giolito’s average fastball velocity clocked in below 93 mph from 2017-18. The mean has jumped to 94.5 mph this year, though, and he’s throwing the pitch far more often. After turning to the offering just under 40 percent of the time in 2018, Giolito has gone to it at a 55.2 percent rate this season. He has also bagged his sinker, which was his second-most common pitch a year ago, and thrown more change-ups and fewer breaking balls. Giolito’s three main pitches – his fastball, change and slider – have all been among the most effective in baseball so far, according to FanGraphs.
Limiting contact: Giolito’s contact rate has dropped from 80.7 percent to 73.5 in a year’s time. While his groundball percentage simultaneously has fallen 8 percentage points (44.4 to 36.4), Giolito isn’t allowing high-impact fly balls. Not only is Giolito second in the majors in infield fly rate (17.5 percent), but his average FB distance against has plunged from 315 feet to 301. In the process, his wOBA/xwOBA tandem has gone from .345/.350 to .261/.277.

All things considered, it appears Giolito is evolving into one of baseball’s preeminent young starters and delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect. If true, he’ll be a long-term building block for the White Sox and one-fifth of what could be an exciting rotation for years to come. That will depend somewhat on whether Lopez, Dunning and top-end prospects Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech – who’s recovering from 2018 Tommy John surgery – pan out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Derek Dietrich Turns On The Power

By Connor Byrne | May 29, 2019 at 6:24pm CDT

Reds second baseman Derek Dietrich has seemingly been on a mission to torture the NL Central rival Pirates so far this season. The brash 29-year-old homered off the Pirates on Opening Day and continued his onslaught just over a week later, mashing a pair of HRs and helping spark a brawl in Pittsburgh on April 7. Not content to stop there, Dietrich victimized the Pirates this week for another four HRs in a four-game series, giving him seven in nine appearances against the Buccos.

Dietrich’s most publicized moments have come at Pittsburgh’s expense this season, but the Pirates aren’t the only team he has frustrated. As a .262/.368/.713 hitter through 144 plate appearances, Dietrich owns the majors’ seventh-highest wRC+ (171) among batters who have accrued at least 140 PA. He also leads the league in isolated power (.451) by 51 points over second-place Christian Yelich on the strength of 17 home runs. That’s already a career-best mark for Dietrich, who hadn’t amassed more than 16 in a season since he made his major league debut with the Marlins in 2013.

Dietrich was typically a useful player in Miami across six seasons and 2,132 PA, combining respectable offense (.254/.335/.422 – good for a 109 wRC+) with an ability to line up at several positions. Despite that, the Marlins – unwilling to pay Dietrich a projected $4.8MM in arbitration – designated him for assignment in November. While Dietrich now looks like yet another one who got away for the down-and-out Marlins, it’s worth noting the rest of the league didn’t really want him either during the offseason. Finally, almost three full months after Miami cut Dietrich, he joined the Reds on a minor league deal in February.

Baseball slept on Dietrich over the winter, but he has since burst forth as one of the game’s shrewdest offseason signings. For the Reds, his emergence has been all the more fortuitous given that they have gone all season without injured second baseman Scooter Gennett. Like Gennett, whom the Reds claimed off waivers from Milwaukee entering the 2017 season, it appears Dietrich has gone from under-the-radar pickup to star in their uniform.

The question is: How is Dietrich suddenly one of the league’s most powerful and productive hitters? It seems to stem from a change in approach. Dietrich is pulling the ball more than ever, which is conducive to hitting for power, and looks like the latest beneficiary of the sport’s fly ball revolution. Although he never posted a fly ball rate better than 43.3 percent in a season with the Marlins, he’s currently at 52.2 percent – the sixth-highest mark in the league. As you’d expect from his stat line, Dietrich has made his fly balls count. He’s averaging 348 feet on his flies, a 38-foot increase from last year’s 310, and has significantly upped his exit velocity while putting the ball in the air. Dietrich’s fly balls and line drives have traveled at a 96.7 mph mean after clocking in at 90.8 in 2018, according to Statcast.

In theory, the fact that Dietrich is running a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.176, compared to .308 in Miami) makes his success all the more amazing. That said, fly ball-heavy hitters aren’t usually candidates for high BABIPs; beyond that, the stat doesn’t factor in homers – which make up more than half of Dietrich’s 32 hits this season. Though there’s a strong likelihood Dietrich’s BABIP will rise closer to career norms as the season progresses, his overall production will inevitably go backward to some degree.

The reality is that Dietrich’s not going to continue hitting dingers on 36.5 percent of fly balls, as only the MVP-winning Yelich broke the 30 percent plateau last season. Dietrich also isn’t some plate discipline savant who controls the zone at an elite level. To his credit, Dietrich’s walking at a career-high 9.3 percent clip and has slashed his strikeout rate by almost 5 percent since 2018 (from 25.4 to 20.8). However, those figures are still just a bit above average. And the left-handed Dietrich has continued a career-long trend of slumping against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a meek .154/.273/.300 line this year. So it’s righties who are going to have to figure out how to handle him. Here’s a tip for them: Dietrich hasn’t done much against inside pitches, as these charts from Baseball Savant show, but has dominated versus most offerings in the middle or outer half. And yet, pitchers have largely lived in Dietrich’s hot zones, evidenced by this heat map via FanGraphs.

Dietrich is unlikely to keep this up (not many could), but that’s not to say his offense will careen off a cliff. True, there’s a 46-point gap between his weighted on-base average (.442) and expected wOBA (.396), yet he still ranks in the top 91st percentile of the majors in xwOBA, per Statcast. If Dietrich manages to produce at anywhere near his xwOBA for the rest of the season, the Reds would surely be ecstatic. They’re paying Dietrich a relative pittance this year ($2MM) and can control him through arbitration in 2020. That could help make Dietrich a valuable summer trade chip if Cincinnati’s out of contention by then. For now, though, the Reds appear to have another Gennett-esque steal in their lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Bullpen Facing Renewed Questions

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 7:33am CDT

It’s easy to overreact to bullpen implosions, particularly when they cost a team a seemingly surefire lead. Last night’s meltdown at Fenway not only cost the Red Sox a win, but played to some of the major fears entering the season.

As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the collapse against a tepid Indians lineup featured messy appearances from Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, and Travis Lakins. While Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes weren’t charged with any runs, they didn’t really help with the ugliest stat line to emerge from the evening: the Boston pen recorded just one strikeout against seven walks.

The bullpen was the source of much consternation when camp broke. In particular, many worried about the failure to add established arms to a late-inning unit that bid adieu to closer Craig Kimbrel.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in reviewing the club’s offseason efforts, the “nightmare scenario” some posited was an overreaction. But he also noted that the decision not to bring in additional high-leverage arms — which would also have deepened the middle relief unit — was a “risky strategy.” After all, Polishuk reasoned, “settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox” in a tight division race.

Every win matters, and it’d always be preferable to have another elite arm to call upon. But after observing the Boston relief unit for one-third of the season, it’s hard to call it a problem. Combined, the group carries a solid 3.92 ERA that ranks in the top third leaguewide. Fielding-independent pitching metrics concur with that general placement.

Have things gotten worse of late? The unit has recorded as many blown saves in the past two weeks (4) as have the Nationals, but other teams have more and that’s not necessarily a worthwhile metric to go by in evaluating overall bullpen health. Despite grading in the middle of the pack on the season, Sox relievers have suddenly become walk-happy over the past two weeks with a league-worst 13.3% BB rate. Still, that seems like a short-sample blip. Overall results have actually ticked up over the past month, with the relief corps combining for a 3.21 ERA.

If a true, overarching issue has cropped up it may relate to Ryan Brasier. Expected to function as a core part of the high-leverage group after last year’s surprise emergence, Brasier has fallen on hard times of late. As Speier notes, the righty has been tagged for five long balls in his last 22 2/3 innings of action. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com looked further at Brasier’s struggles.

But even if Brasier has stepped back, the Red Sox have seen others emerge. Barnes has doubled down on his strong 2018 season. Though he’s allowing too many walks, Workman has done the same, carrying stepped-up swinging-strike and strikeout numbers. And Walden has been excellent in his first full season in the majors, with a pleasing mix of K’s and grounders to support a 2.05 ERA.

To be sure, the remainder of the outfit isn’t as strong, but that’s a nice trio. Heath Hembree has been useful and Brasier still holds out hope of a bounceback. The team’s rotating cast of other relief pitchers has yet to find sustained success, but that’s a common issue around the league.

It’s certainly not difficult to see the merits of a mid-season acquisition or two. But really, who didn’t see that coming for a team that obviously prioritized other areas in the offseason? What’s more surprising is that the assembled group has performed so well for such a sustained stretch. Most any relief unit will produce moments like last night; plenty of others haven’t been capable of the sturdy results produced to this point by Boston’s hurlers.

Better still, further improvement might be found without a budget or farm-busting move for a high-end closer. The one area where the righty-heavy Sox have clearly struggled is in retiring opposing left-handed hitters. The relief unit has been tagged for a 5.31 ERA and 1.70 HR/9 by southpaw batters. Adding even one quality situational lefty could help smooth out this bump and make it easier for skipper Alex Cora to get the ball to his most reliable relievers in the late innings.

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