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MLBTR Originals

Does MLB’s Options Structure Need To Change?

By Steve Adams | August 23, 2019 at 11:04am CDT

Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija recently crossed the 10-year threshold in terms of Major League service time and took the occasion to voice concerns about the difficulty today’s younger players will have in reaching that same milestone (link via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). More specifically, Samardzija wondered aloud how any young player can be expected to reach 10 years of big league service when modern front offices utilize the final spots on the MLB roster as a carousel of various relievers and bench players in an effort to keep their rosters fresh.

“These guys are being productive for our team but at the same time only getting 70 to 80 service days a season,” said Samardzija. “It’s going to take them till they’re 34, 35 or more to get six years, and then 40 to get 10 years. … We need to make sure one option can’t be 10 callups or call-downs where we can use them as swing guys who don’t accumulate any time.”

Samardzija’s precise wording is perhaps a bit embellished, but the sentiment is indeed reflective of today’s baseball climate. Players are optioned back and forth between the Majors and minors at a higher clip than ever before. The shift from a 15-day to a 10-day injured list — one that, notably, will be reversed for pitchers beginning in 2020 — in particular, has emboldened front offices to use brief trips to the IL as a means of resting pitchers and getting fresh arms into their bullpens or rotations when the need (often) arises. Rather than carrying a largely set seven- or eight-man bullpen, many clubs have only four to six set relievers and round out the final bullpen spots with a parade of changing faces.

As the league’s option structure is currently constructed, there’s nothing wrong with doing any of that. Maintaining that level of agility on a club’s roster is now generally viewed as a sound baseball practice, and with good reason. It’s easier to manage workloads in the minor leagues, and a constant churn at the back of the bullpen prevents clubs from having to trot the same pitcher out to the mound on three or even four consecutive days.

At the same time, the increased prevalence of optioning players in this fashion will eventually only increase the number of big leaguers who exhaust their minor league options, and that eventuality will the have the opposite effect of reducing teams’ roster flexibility. And for the players, of course, it does indeed become more difficult to garner substantial service time. The Yankees have sent left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. back to Triple-A on seven different occasions this season. The Twins have done the same with Kohl Stewart. That’s a far better fate than merely sitting in the minors and not accruing any MLB time, but it’s also easy to see why players would argue that it’s a frustrating and suboptimal process that could be tweaked.

As things currently stand, players receive three option years (and, in rare cases stemming from significant minor league injuries, sometimes a fourth). Any player on the 40-man roster who is sent down to the minors and spends more than 20 days there is considered to have used an option year. He can be shuttled to and from the minors as often as the team deems fit that season all under the umbrella of that single option year.

As Schulman notes in the Samardzija interview, this very infrastructure is among the myriad topics being discussed as the league and the players’ union are in the early stages of collective bargaining negotiations. The current CBA runs through the 2021 season, so it’s unlikely that there’ll be any immediate changes to such a core component of roster construction, but the rising number of issues the players are bringing to the table in labor talks does seem like a portent for change in some respects. Surely, only a fraction of those issues will result in meaningful change, and the minor league option infrastructure is but one piece of the much broader topic of service time.

(Poll link for app users)

Does MLB need to change its minor league option system?
Yes, the frequent roster turnover has gotten to be too much, and we need something better, 66.10% (2,919 votes)
The current system works just fine. The MLBPA should focus on other priorities. 33.90% (1,497 votes)
Total Votes: 4,416
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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Rafael Devers’ Star Turn

By Connor Byrne | August 19, 2019 at 7:55pm CDT

Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.

Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.

Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.

How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.

Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.

To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals Rafael Devers

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The Best Young Starters Of 2019

By Connor Byrne | August 19, 2019 at 6:56pm CDT

We’re nearing the end of the 2019 regular season, a campaign which has featured plenty of valuable contributions from young starters. By my count, no fewer than 10 starters age 25 or younger have excelled this year. Several of them could continue helping their teams’ causes once the postseason rolls around in a couple months. In alphabetical order, let’s take a look at the best of the bunch…

Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2019; scheduled for free agency after 2022):

  • This has been the third straight quality season for Berrios, who has amassed 157 2/3 innings of 3.37 ERA/3.92 FIP ball with 8.56 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9. Aside from a rough debut in 2016, Berrios has been among the most impressive young starters in the game throughout his career.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Indians (age: 24; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency after 2024):

  • Bieber was terrific over a 114 2/3-inning debut in 2018, but he has been downright spectacular this year. While Bieber won the MVP of the All-Star Game, which was held in his team’s city of Cleveland, he has been even more impressive in meaningful action. Bieber owns a 3.27 ERA/3.32 FIP with 11.09 K/9 against 1.83 BB/9 in 162 1/3 frames of action. Only four starters have outdone Bieber’s K/BB ratio of 6.06.

Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):

  • Buehler, whose fastball averages just under 97 mph, is one of the few starters to outperform Bieber in K/BB ratio (6.38). His 10.57 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 have helped him log a sterling 3.31 ERA/3.00 FIP over 141 1/3 innings, thus aiding Buehler in replicating the phenomenal production he posted during his 137 1/3-frame rookie campaign a year ago.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals (age: 23; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):

  • One of the youngest starters on this youth-laden list, Flaherty was superb across 151 innings last year and has followed that up properly this season. While Flaherty owned an unattractive 4.90 ERA as recently as July 2, he has caught fire since then. In his most recent eight starts, Flaherty has yielded a mere five earned runs on 25 hits with 61 strikeouts and 14 walks in 50 1/3 innings. Flaherty now owns a 3.46 ERA/4.02 FIP and 10.39 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 through 140 1/3 innings this season.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):

  • As we covered in greater detail back in May, Giolito has figured it out this season. The former can’t-miss prospect was a disaster as recently as last year, but the 2019 version has recorded a nearly matching 3.41 ERA/3.37 FIP with 11.48 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 in 142 2/3 innings. Giolito’s success has come thanks in part to a dramatic increase in velocity – after averaging 92.8 mph on his fastball in 2018, he’s up to 94.5 this season.

German Marquez, RHP, Rockies (age: 24; team control: signed through 2023 for a guaranteed five years and $43MM):

  • The hard-throwing Marquez doesn’t get nearly enough recognition, largely because he pitches in Colorado, but the fact that he’s able to succeed despite calling Coors Field home should earn him extra credit. He was an absolute strikeout machine in 2018, when he punched out 230 hitters in 196 innings en route to a 3.77 ERA/3.40 FIP. That convinced the Rockies to lock up Marquez at set prices for the foreseeable future. Good move on their part. Although Marquez hasn’t been as effective this season, any team would take the 4.71 ERA/3.95 FIP, 9.16 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, and 50 percent groundball rate he has put up over 168 frames.

Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres (age: 23; eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency 2024):

  • Paddack has had a tough time over three August starts, but the former top prospect has nonetheless lived up to his pre-MLB billing this year. The rookie has registered a 3.44 ERA/4.21 FIP with 9.47 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 in his first 115 major league innings. If you’re a fan of WHIP, Paddack’s minuscule 0.98 mark ties him with Astros stars Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke for fourth among those who have tossed 100-plus innings in 2019.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves (age: 22; eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):

  • We arrive at the youngest starter on this list, someone who’d have a better shot at NL Rookie of the Year honors if not for the exploits of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. But Soroka will definitely get some votes in his own right, especially considering he’s the premier starter on a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. The sinker-reliant Soroka has managed a brilliant 2.41 ERA/3.29 FIP with 7.15 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a groundball percentage of 54.0 through 134 2/3 innings this season.

Injury omissions:

None of the Yankees’ Luis Severino, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani or the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. have thrown a pitch this season because of injuries. The 25-year-old Severino, who could still take the mound sometime in the next couple months, may be the most enticing pitcher of the trio. He was a true ace from 2017-18, a 384 2/3-inning span in which he pitched to a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP with 10.53 K/9 against 2.27 BB/9. Ohtani, also 25, only racked up 51 2/3 frames during his debut season in 2018, but the two-way star wowed then with a 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP and 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9. And McCullers, yet another 25-year-old, combined for 453 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA/3.24 FIP ball with 10.1 K/9, 3.53 BB/9 and a strong 54.6 percent groundball rate from 2015-18 before joining Ohtani in undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall.

Honorable mentions:

No disrespect to the Braves’ Max Fried (25) or the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson (24), but they’re overshadowed by better teammates in Soroka and Flaherty, respectively.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals

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Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

By Mark Polishuk | August 18, 2019 at 7:53pm CDT

The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt.  Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.

Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth.  The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.

Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention.  Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season.  The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.

The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division.  Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.

It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis.  In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs.  Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list?  Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt?  Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?

Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October?  (Poll link for app users)

Which two teams will win the AL wild cards?
Rays/AL Central runner-up 41.01% (5,523 votes)
Athletics/AL Central runner-up 22.81% (3,072 votes)
Rays/Athletics 21.13% (2,845 votes)
Red Sox/AL Central runner-up 6.51% (877 votes)
Rays/Red Sox 5.23% (704 votes)
Athletics/Red Sox 3.30% (445 votes)
Total Votes: 13,466

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Athletics Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Minnesota Twins Tampa Bay Rays

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A Minor Signing Pays Off For Giants

By Connor Byrne | August 16, 2019 at 8:03pm CDT

Giants infielder Donovan Solano has somewhat quietly held his own since the team selected his contract from Triple-A Sacramento on May 7. Dating back to then, Solano has slashed .331/.363/.471 (119 wRC+) with four home runs across 168 plate appearances. Not bad for someone who had to settle for a minor league pact when he joined the Giants last offseason.

Solano’s output this year has been all the more impressive considering he hadn’t appeared in the majors since 2016 prior to his promotion to San Francisco’s roster. He logged a fair amount of playing time with the Marlins from 2012-15 and a bit with the Yankees the year after his Miami tenure ended, but he only managed a .257/.306/.331 line during that 1,168-PA span between the two teams. What’s more, Solano didn’t acquit himself particularly great as a minor leaguer with the Marlins, Yankees or Dodgers, evidenced in part by his lifetime .724 OPS in 2,570 PA at the Triple-A level. He was solid – albeit far from excellent – as a member of the Giants’ top minors affiliate at the outset of the season, hitting .322/.392/.437 (108 wRC+) with a pair of homers over 97 attempts as part of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Solano’s early season production in Sacramento was enough to earn him another big league call-up, and he hasn’t looked back. His effectiveness has played a role in the resurgence of the Giants, who have rallied from the dead this summer to at least enter the National League wild-card conversation. The question is: Might the Giants – who haven’t gotten much from any second base choice but Solano – have actually found a legitimate late bloomer? Going by the numbers, it’s a mixed bag.

Solano’s .397 batting average on balls in play isn’t going to continue, which is especially ominous for someone who doesn’t hit for much power, and his 87 mph average exit velocity ranks toward the bottom of the league. He also seldom walks, having drawn free passes at a subpar 4.8 percent clip.

Solano has, however, offset his lack of walks to some degree by striking out less than most hitters (20.2 percent). When he has put the bat on the ball, the right-hander has increased his line drives and hard-contact rate (according to FanGraphs), cut down on grounders, and recorded quality production against righty and lefty hurlers alike. Solano has struggled mightily at the Giants’ pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, where he has batted .266/.289/.304, though he has made up for that by slashing a fantastic .397/.435/.641 on the road. Overall, Statcast shows little difference between Solano’s weighted on-base average (.356) and expected wOBA (.359).

While Solano had made clear improvements this season, it’s highly debatable whether he could emerge as a multiyear solution for the Giants. Even if he doesn’t, the Giants couldn’t have expected Solano to put up what has easily been a career campaign in 2019 when they inked him to a no-risk deal. Given the work Solano has done in a San Francisco uniform, he looks like one of the winter’s top minor league signings at this point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals San Francisco Giants Donovan Solano

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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

By Connor Byrne | August 16, 2019 at 6:40pm CDT

The two best teams in the American League Central brutalized their opponents on Thursday. The Twins crushed the Rangers, 13-6. The Indians pulled off an even more decisive victory, destroying the mighty Yankees by a 19-5 score. On the heels of those wins, Minnesota and Cleveland entered play Friday neck and neck in the division, which has largely been the case over the past couple weeks. The Twins hold a half-game lead over the Indians, the three-time reigning AL Central champions.

The fact that the race has gotten this close is somewhat hard to believe. For most of the season, the division has looked like the Twins’ in a runaway. They owned an 11-game edge over the Tribe as recently as June 15, but the Indians have chipped away since then. Despite the long-term absences of arguably their two top pitchers – Corey Kluber (out since May 1 with a fractured forearm) and Carlos Carrasco (out since May 30 because of leukemia) – the Indians have remained on the Twins’ heels. The Indians also traded away high-end starter Trevor Bauer prior to last month’s deadline, though they received immediate help for their lineup in outfielders Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in return.

Cleveland’s starting staff, which should at least get Kluber back sometime soon, has gotten by mostly because of young sensation Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. Meanwhile, the ERAs of rookie Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko have far outperformed much weaker peripherals, while first-year right-hander Aaron Civale has been excellent over his first few starts. And the Indians’ lineup, which was a sore spot earlier in the season, has risen from the dead with help from Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis – both of whom struggled mightily at the outset of the campaign – among those complementing Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor.

The Indians went into play Friday with 169 home runs – 67 fewer than the major league-leading Twins’ 236. Minnesota’s on track to breeze past the single-season record of 267 that the Yankees set just a year ago, but the Twins’ co-leader, designated Nelson Cruz (32 HRs), has been on the injured list since last week because of a strained wrist. Their lineup’s still in enviable shape – Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Luis Arraez are among those enjoying standout seasons – but the team has nonetheless stopped operating at a breakneck pace. Since it held its 11-game lead over the Indians two months ago, Minnesota has gone a mediocre 26-26. Starters Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez have all slowed down to some degree as the season has moved along, while the Twins’ bullpen – despite the acquisitions of Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo before the deadline – hasn’t thrived.

Considering the Twins have been atop the AL Central throughout the year and currently lead the division, they’re the front-runners to take it this year. Indeed, FanGraphs gives the Twins a 60.6 percent chance to win the division and the Indians 39.4 percent odds. But it would be unwise to count out Cleveland, which has remarkably rallied to make it a legitimate race and still has six regular-season matchups left against Minnesota. Which of the two teams do you expect to win the division?

(Poll link for app users)

Who will win the AL Central?
Twins 55.03% (4,286 votes)
Indians 44.97% (3,503 votes)
Total Votes: 7,789
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13 Pitchers Whose Saves Tallies Will Drive 2020 Earnings

By Jeff Todd | August 15, 2019 at 11:57pm CDT

The ability to handle late-inning pressure still has value to teams. But the accumulation of saves, standing alone, isn’t generally the driver of open-market bullpen salaries that it once was. For arbitration, however, saves tallies pay big, opening the door to significant earning opportunities for relievers.

So, which players have put themselves in position to command nice salary boosts this fall owing to their saves tallies? Here’s a list of the baker’s dozen hurlers who’ll be eligible for arbitration next year and have already accrued double-digit saves in 2019:

  • Kirby Yates, Padres ($3.062MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Currently pacing all of baseball with 33 saves, Yates is lining up quite a fruitful final trip through arbitration. He’s not working off of the biggest platform, but he’s likely to get the biggest raise of this group with his saves totals and general brilliance (1.13 ERA, 77 strikeouts) … unless he and the Friars strike an extension.
  • Roberto Osuna, Astros ($6.5MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Osuna has been effective, but not exceptionally dominant. Having blown five saves, and not been ridden particularly hard by the Houston org, he has accumulated somewhat fewer saves (26) than might have been anticipated for one of the league’s winningest teams. Osuna is still on pace to out-earn every other pitcher on this list in total arbitration earnings, owing to his massive Super Two starting salary.
  • Edwin Diaz, Mets ($607K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Though he is still racking up strikeouts, Diaz is also proving exceptionally homer-prone in New York. His 5.56 ERA is an unquestionable disappointment. Still, having already picked up 25 saves and with more yet to come, he is going to command a big first-time arb salary. It just won’t be nearly as much as it would have been had his platform year looked more like his 2018 effort.
  • Alex Colome, White Sox ($7.325MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The 30-year-old has the saves total (23) and ERA (2.30) of an ace reliever, with the peripherals (7.7 K/9 vs. 3.6 BB/9; 4.53 SIERA, 4.59 xFIP) of a passable middle reliever. There’s an argument to be made that he shouldn’t be tendered, since it’s going to cost a pretty penny, though that seems rather unlikely given that the South Siders decided against trading him when they had the chance this summer.
  • Shane Greene, Braves ($4MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Unfortunately, Greene blew his shot — his first one, anyway; we’ll see how things progress in Atlanta — at building up his saves tally after being dealt to the Braves. He has already accumulated 22, so he’ll be in line for a nice raise regardless. In his last arb experience, Greene earned a raise of just over $2MM by closing out 32 wins in 2018.
  • Hector Neris, Phillies ($1.8MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): The Philadelphia closer is still building on his 21-save figure. He has also already accumulated 68 strikeouts this season.
  • Taylor Rogers, Twins ($1.525MM current salary; entering 2nd of 4 seasons of eligibility): The extra year of arbitration afforded by Super Two status sure can pay off. Rogers has 18 saves, 68 strikeouts, and a 2.68 ERA through 53 2/3 innings. A big raise this year will further raise his base for two additional arb trips.
  • Luke Jackson, Braves ($585K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Few expected Jackson to remain on the Atlanta roster all year, let alone to accumulate 18 saves and 73 strikeouts to this point. He isn’t especially likely to pad his total down the stretch, having surrendered the job to a still-unsettled cast of incoming relievers, but Jackson ha set the stage regardless for a much-better-than-expected offseason payday.
  • Ken Giles, Blue Jays ($6.3MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The Toronto organization was never going to win a ton of games, so Giles was never likely to accumulate a huge number of saves. But he’s stuck on 16 owing to an unfortunate elbow issue that arose in the midst of an outstanding season (1.89 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 38 innings). If he had remained healthy and taken over the 9th for a contender, he’d have had much greater earning capacity. Fortunately for Giles, he has a high starting point to build from.
  • Hansel Robles, Angels ($1.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Another unexpected save tallier, Robles has picked up 16 with more to come. He has established himself as a key cog in the Halos pen, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll hang onto the closer’s role for 2020.
  • Blake Treinen, Athletics ($6.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Treinen enjoyed a record-setting arb run last year but has regressed on the mound, working to a 4.74 ERA with just 8.4 K/9 against 5.7 BB/9 along with an uncharacteristically low 42.9% groundball rate. With 16 saves already logged, Treinen is going to command a not-unsubstantial raise on top of his already hefty salary. It’d be awfully tough to give up on a pitcher with his upside, particularly since he’s still pumping upper-nineties heat, but the tab seems steep for the A’s. If he’s not a non-tender candidate, Treinen will likely be batted around in offseason trade talks.
  • Roenis Elias, Nationals ($910K current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): There’s no real chance that Elias will add to his sum of 14 saves, all accrued with the Mariners before he was dealt to D.C., but that’s still a nice feather in his cap. Elias can also hope to add some holds down the stretch, though he’ll have to work back from the injured list first.
  • Liam Hendriks, Athletics ($2.15MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Since taking the reigns from Treinen, the breakout Aussie hurler has picked up 13 saves with more to come. While he’s not going to drive a huge raise with the save numbers alone, Hendriks is also pacing this list with a hefty 63 1/3 inning workload and has already recorded 88 strikeouts.
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6 Extended Players Who Have Improved In 2019

By Connor Byrne | August 15, 2019 at 8:21pm CDT

There was a well-documented run on contract extensions prior to this season, which bled into the current campaign in multiple instances. All told, 30 players inked multiyear pacts with their clubs between January and April. We highlighted five last week who’ve disappointed this year since landing their new deals. Now, here are six who have actually improved in 2019, thereby making their teams look that much better for locking them up…

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (six years, $120MM):

  • There were many who believed Bogaerts left a good amount of money on the table last spring when he inked a long-term deal with the Red Sox a year before a potential trip to free agency. It was debatable then whether that was truly the case, but not anymore. The consistently terrific Bogaerts is now enjoying a career year at the age of 26. Bogaerts has totaled 5.5 fWAR on the strength of a .308/.384/.563 line (good for a 142 wRC+) through 539 plate appearances. With a personal-best 27 home runs, he’s a shoo-in for his first 30-HR campaign. It helps that Bogaerts has swung at fewer out-of-zone pitches than ever and walked at a career-best rate.

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (eight years, $100MM):

  • Thanks in part to what’s somehow a team-friendly nine-figure contract, the FanGraphs crew recently ranked Acuna as the player with the most trade value in baseball. Anyone care to argue? The 21-year-old may become the game’s latest 40/40 player this season, having amassed 34 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 562 trips to the plate. He has also slashed .298/.377/.539 (134 wRC+), posted nine Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating among all three outfield positions, and racked up 4.8 fWAR.

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (seven years, $35MM):

  • The majority of observers regarded the Albies deal as an absolute steal for the Braves when he signed it. The 22-year-old hasn’t done anything to change minds since then, having batted .298/.353/.502 (117 wRC+) with 18 homers and 11 steals across 530 PA. Albies has added three DRS and a 1.3 UZR in the field, helping lead to a 3.4 fWAR a year after he logged 3.8. The switch-hitting Albies was clearly among the game’s best second basemen before landing his extension, and the contract has only made him more valuable from Atlanta’s perspective.

Max Kepler, OF, Twins (five years, $35MM):

  • Back in May, the Kepler extension was one of two MLBTR’s Jeff Todd highlighted as a gem for the club. The 26-year-old Kepler was off to an impressive start to the season at that point, and he hasn’t let up. Kepler’s already up to 32 homers, 12 more than his previous high-water mark, in 501 PA. Overall, he has batted .258/.337/.536 (124 wRC+) with 3.7 fWAR. Unlike many hitters who’ve increased their power, Kepler’s excellence hasn’t come with more strikeouts. He has fanned in a meager 16 percent of plate appearances and drawn walks at an above-average 10.2 percent clip.

Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds (three years, $30.5MM):

  • The Reds extended Gray immediately after acquiring the 29-year-old from the Yankees, with whom he struggled. Wise choice. Gray was mostly successful with the Yankees before an adverse year and a half in New York, and he has returned to his top form as a member of the Reds. He owns a stellar 2.98 ERA/3.40 FIP with 10.45 K/9 (easily a career-high amount), 3.39 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent groundball rate over 132 2/3 innings. The fact that Gray has reverted to being a front-of-the-rotation arm is a key reason why the Reds’ starting staff has taken massive steps forward this season.

Jorge Polanco, SS, Twins (five years, $25.75MM):

  • Polanco’s extension was another brilliant preseason decision by the Twins, who’ve seen the 26-year-old hit .294/.357/.487 (118 wRC+) with 17 long balls and 3.3 fWAR since signing it. Polanco, like Kepler, has been rather difficult to strike out, having gone down in that manner in a mere 15.8 percent of PA.
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Free Agent Stock Watch: Wade Miley

By Connor Byrne | August 15, 2019 at 6:45pm CDT

Left-hander Wade Miley was one of the most cost-efficient free-agent signings in each of the previous two offseasons. He was highly successful as a Brewer in 2018 after settling for a minor league contract, and has continued to thrive this year as an Astro on the heels of taking a major league pact worth $4.5MM. Over the past season and a half, Miley ranks 14th among qualified starters in ERA (3.11).

Understandably, plenty of skepticism has accompanied Miley’s ability to prevent runs. Since 2018, only 20 qualified starters have registered a worse FIP than Miley’s 4.42, while he also falls toward the low end of the majors in SIERA (4.68; 19th from the bottom) and xFIP (4.44; 25th). One of the problems has been Miley’s K/BB ratio, which was especially poor last year after he struck out 5.58 hitters per nine and walked 3.01 across 80 2/3 innings as a Brewer. But Miley has improved significantly in that category through 141 2/3 frames as a member of the Astros, with whom he has struck out 7.43 and walked 3.05. While still unspectacular, those numbers are right in line with the former Diamondback, Red Sox and Mariner’s career totals (7.13 K/9, 3.12 BB/9).

Clearly, the 32-year-old Miley has never been anywhere near elite at racking up strikeouts or limiting walks, in part because of a fastball that clocks in at just about 91 mph. But Miley has typically induced a solid number of ground balls while limiting home runs, which has continued this year.

As a member of the Astros, Miley has forced grounders at a 52.4 percent clip and allowed homers on 15.1 percent of fly balls – both of which are well above average. He has also been tough on both lefties, whom he has held to a .255 weighted on-base average, and righties (.295). And good luck hasn’t been the driving force behind Miley’s ability to stymie hitters, as Statcast indicates the .289 wOBA he has given up is actually worse than his .282 expected wOBA. Miley’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 81st percentile, while his exit velocity against (70th), expected batting average (75th), hard-hit rate (81st) and expected slugging percentage against (84th) also sit toward the top of the majors.

The success Miley has enjoyed over the past couple years has come with a change in repertoire. When he was a member of the Orioles in 2017, batters had their way with Miley, who pitched to a bloated 5.61 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work. Miley’s career (or at least his time as a useful major leaguer) looked as if it was nearing an end then, but he has since revived it with a more cutter-heavy approach. He threw the pitch 14.3 percent of the time in 2017, per Statcast, but has used it at a 41-plus percent clip in both seasons since then. Miley has tossed it a personal-high 46.8 percent of the time this year, and hitters have recorded a modest .311 wOBA/.315 xwOBA against it. Miley’s other most common pitches – his changeup (19.6 percent; .198 wOBA/.191 xwOBA) and four-seamer (16.4 percent; .272/.258) – have confounded the opposition even more.

Despite the success Miley has enjoyed going back to 2018, the soft-tossing southpaw still isn’t a particularly exciting option. His earning power will always be somewhat limited as a result, but Miley should at least do better than the contract he raked in last offseason. A multiyear pact might be in the offing this winter for Miley, who will fall behind far more expensive hurlers such as teammate Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, perhaps among others, on the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Kelvin Herrera Signing Hasn’t Gone The White Sox’s Way

By Connor Byrne | August 14, 2019 at 7:57pm CDT

At times since he debuted in the majors in 2011, right-hander Kelvin Herrera has been one of the majors’ most dominant relievers. Between 2012 and ’16, for instance, Herrera pitched to a sterling 2.57 ERA/2.96 FIP with 9.14 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 48.7 percent groundball rate over 354 1/3 innings. He averaged a whopping 98.0 mph on his four-seam fastball along the way, and was a key reason why the Royals took home a World Series championship in 2015. That fall, Herrera turned in 13 2/3 innings of two-run ball (one earned) and totaled 22 strikeouts against three walks. Herrera hasn’t been the same caliber of pitcher over the past couple years, however, and is now struggling through the worst season of his career.

Things began going downhill for Herrera in 2017, his last full season as a Royal, and continued to spiral last year in a campaign divided between Kansas City and Washington. Herrera still notched an outstanding 2.44 ERA and barely walked more than two batters per nine over 44 1/3 innings, but his 7.71 K/9, 35.6 percent groundball rate, 3.95 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA ranked among the least impressive figures during his time in the pros. Making matters worse, Herrera suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in his left foot in late August.

Although 2018 concluded in unfavorable fashion for Herrera, that didn’t stop the 29-year-old from landing a solid payday in free agency last winter. The rebuilding White Sox, familiar with the hurler from his run with the division-rival Royals, committed two years and $18MM to Herrera.

Unfortunately for Chicago, the Herrera contract has looked like a mistake to this point. Through 34 1/3 innings with the ChiSox, Herrera has limped to a 7.08 ERA. Only two relievers who have accrued 30-plus innings (David Hernandez, whom the Reds just released, and the Orioles’ Branden Kline) have had more trouble preventing runs than Herrera, whose average fastball velocity (95.8 mph) sits as the least imposing of his career. Unsurprisingly, a drop in swinging-strike rate – 10.8 percent, the worst of Herrera’s majors tenure – has accompanied his dip in velocity. At the same time, with 4.19 walks per nine, Herrera has issued more free passes than ever.

Herrera’s new status as one of the game’s least effective relievers has come with a change in repertoire. According to Statcast, after throwing his four-seamer anywhere from 40 to 60 percent in previous seasons, he’s down to 32.8 percent this year. Hitters have tattooed the pitch, though, with a .483 weighted on-base average/.421 xwOBA. They’ve also had plenty of success against his sinker (21.9 percent; .432 wOBA/.364 xwOBA) and cutter (10.3 percent; .375/.391). Conversely, Herrera’s non-fastballs – his changeup (21.5 percent; .218/.225) and slider (13.6 percent; .202/.220) – have stymied the opposition. Perhaps he’d be well-served to rely more on those offerings.

Regardless of pitch choice, it does seem Herrera has encountered a bit of bad luck this season. His fielding-independent pitching marks, including a 4.73 FIP, are all much more respectable than his ERA (although hardly great). Hitters have also victimized Herrera for an unsustainable .378 batting average on balls in play, which sits well above his career .292 mark and has come in spite of a low average exit velocity. Herrera’s mean exit velo against (85.8 mph) ranks as his best in the Statcast era and falls in the top 7 percent of the league. The .339 xwOBA Herrera has yielded is still unimpressive, but it looks far better than the .370 real wOBA hitters have mustered off him. Meanwhile, Herrera has only stranded 63.2 percent of runners – down from a lifetime mark of 77.7.

Herrera and the White Sox will, of course, hope fortune starts going in his favor over the next year-plus. As of now, though, this doesn’t have the makings of a successful signing for the club, which committed much more money to Herrera than any other free agent last offseason. If Herrera does bounce back in 2020, though, it could go a long way toward helping the White Sox snap a painfully long playoff drought that’s sure to hit 11 seasons this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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