The Trade That Landed NL’s All-Star Starter In Arizona
The All-Star Game is soon to get underway. Kicking off the festivities on the mound: Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen and Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.
The two pitchers were acquired by their respective clubs at very different stages of their careers. Cole had established himself as arguably the sport’s best pitcher by the 2019-20 offseason. He’d join the Yankees on a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract that shattered the record for the largest pitching deal in MLB history. 519 innings of 3.19 ERA ball later, the Yankees are surely happy with that investment.
Gallen landed in Arizona well before he was established as an MLB starter. Originally drafted by the Cardinals, he was dealt to the Marlins as a prospect alongside Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra and Daniel Castano in the lopsided Marcell Ozuna trade over the 2017-18 offseason. Gallen spent a year and a half in the Miami system, reaching the big leagues in June ’19.
A rookie starter on a then-noncompetitive Miami club, Gallen wasn’t on many people’s radar as a viable trade candidate going into the 2019 deadline. The Fish and Diamondbacks ignored traditional competitive windows and lined up on the extremely rare swap of top young talents: a one-for-one deal that sent Gallen to Phoenix for Double-A middle infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Swapping highly-regarded prospects at positions of need is far more common in fan speculation than it is in practice. Organizations are typically reluctant to surrender quality controllable talent. Clubs liked those players enough to acquire and develop them in the first place; it’s only natural if teams tend to value their in-house talent more than other organizations might.
Going into the 2019 season, Chisholm was generally regarded as the superior prospect. The Bahamian infielder ranked 59th on Baseball America’s top 100 list and 32nd on Keith Law’s list (then at ESPN). His athleticism, switch-hitting ability and huge raw power made him a potential franchise middle infielder. Gallen was more generally perceived as a future strike-throwing #4 starter than a burgeoning ace.
Gallen flipped that script with a breakout 2019 campaign. He posted a 1.77 ERA over 14 Triple-A starts before his first call-up. He made seven starts with Miami, working to a 2.72 ERA with a strong 28.5% strikeout percentage in his first 36 2/3 frames. Arizona had to view Gallen as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter to make parting with Chisholm worthwhile.
They’ve been proven right in that evaluation. In parts of five seasons as a Diamondback, Gallen has worked to a 3.10 ERA through 539 1/3 innings. He’s striking out just over 27% of batters faced. The North Carolina product was a little walk-prone early in his career, but he has consistently cut into the free passes as he’s gotten more experience.
Only once has Gallen posted an ERA higher than this year’s 3.04 clip. His 4.30 mark in 2021 looks like a blip, as he followed up a career-low 2.54 last season with his All-Star first half. Of the 94 starters with 70+ innings, he’s in the top 25 in ERA (18th), strikeout rate (22nd at 26.5%) and SIERA (14th at 3.53).
Gallen has twice found himself on Cy Young ballots. He’s likely to land some support for a third season after picking up a deserved first All-Star selection. Gallen has been the clear staff ace for a resurgent Arizona club that went into the All-Star Break percentage points behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. He is eligible for arbitration for another two seasons.
While the trade leans in Arizona’s favor, Chisholm has tapped into a lot of the promise he’d shown as a minor leaguer. He connected on 14 home runs and swiped 12 bases in only 60 games last season, earning an All-Star nod of his own. Unfortunately, he couldn’t play in that game, as his campaign was ended on June 29 by a back injury.
The Fish moved Chisholm to center field to accommodate the acquisition of Luis Arraez over the offseason. Chisholm has gotten mixed reviews from public defensive metrics for his outfield performance. He’s hitting .246/.302/.443 with nine longballs and 14 steals over 183 trips to the dish this year. Injuries have again been a story, as he lost around a month to turf toe on his right foot and is currently on the injured list with an oblique strain.
While the repeated health questions are surely frustrating for Chisholm and the organization alike, he’s flashed the ability to be a franchise building block. Controllable through 2026, he figures to play an everyday role in South Florida for the next few seasons.
In spite of Chisholm’s two absences, Miami is 14 games over .500 and in possession of the National League’s top Wild Card spot. That’s in large part thanks to an excellent rotation. Miami’s starting staff would be better if Gallen were a part of it — every team’s would — but the Fish are as well suited as any club to surrender quality pitching for a potential impact position player. They took a similar approach last offseason, sending Pablo López to Minnesota for Arraez.
Overall, both clubs probably feel strongly about their evaluation of the young player they acquired four seasons ago. Gallen has been healthier and the more valuable player to this point, but Chisholm is one of the top hitters on a Marlins’ club that skews toward pitching. While trades like this don’t happen frequently, the surprising Gallen-Chisholm swap has been impactful for a pair of the NL’s upstart contenders.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Poll: What Should The White Sox Do With Tim Anderson?
The White Sox seem to be gradually accepting that this isn’t their year. A miserable 8-21 start in March and April put them in a bad spot out of the gate. They managed to stay afloat by going 15-14 in May and then 13-13 in June, keeping them near contention in a weak American League Central division. But they slid a bit further recently, going 2-6 in July prior to the All-Star break. Their overall record of 38-54 has them eight games back in the division and even further back in the Wild Card race.
As of about a month ago, it was reported that they were hoping to limit their upcoming summer sell-off to just rental players. But reporting from yesterday indicates they have widened that stance, now willing to trade just about anyone on the roster apart from Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jiménez.
One of the more interesting trade candidates they will have to consider is shortstop Tim Anderson. The extension he signed with the club back in 2017 was guaranteed through 2022 with a pair of club options. The Sox triggered the 2023 option and still have the potential to do so again for 2024.
The decision to trigger the first option was an easy one, as Anderson had emerged as a solid above-average regular for the club over the course of his deal. He was a solid speed-and-defense player in the first couple of years but subpar at the plate. He took a huge step forward in 2019 and maintained it in the years to come. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123, indicating he was 23% above league average. When combined with his baserunning and glovework, he was able to produce 13.6 wins above replacement in 374 games, according to the calculations of FanGraphs.
At the end of last season, the Sox had to decide between triggering a $12.5MM option for 2023 or buying him out for $1MM. With many premier shortstops earning north of $30MM annually, that price point made Anderson a bargain. Unfortunately, this year has been a nightmare for him. He’s yet to hit a home run this season and is batting .223/.259/.263 overall for a wRC+ of just 43, the worst production in the majors among players with at least 250 plate appearances. The advanced defensive metrics also consider him to be below average this year. Those metrics can be fickle on a year-to-year basis but this would be the second straight season they have all had him in the negative range.
On the offensive side of things, if one wanted to look for signs of hope, there are things to squint at. Anderson’s Statcast numbers aren’t drastically different from previous seasons. His average exit velocity of 88.3 mph is in the same range as where he’s been in recent years and is even above his career average of 87.5. His 109.6 mph max exit velo and 40.9% hard hit rate are similar to other seasons as well. His sprint feet of 27.2 feet per second is about a foot shy of his norms, but that’s not too shocking given that he missed about three weeks with a left knee sprain.
What seems to be a real factor is launch angle, which is averaging 0.5 degrees this year, well below his career average of 6.6. His 65.1% ground ball rate is well above the 42.5% league average. Anderson has always had above-average grounder rates but was at 52% for his career coming into this campaign. All of that would perhaps explain why he doesn’t have a home run and why his .284 batting average on balls in play is so far beneath the .376 mark he had during his strong 2019-2022 stretch.
Perhaps Anderson can produce better results going forward just by pounding the ball into the dirt less often. Regardless, the Sox have a few weeks to decide between a few different paths. One is to trade Anderson, which they are apparently open to doing, since he wasn’t listed as one of the players that are off-limits. However, doing so would mean selling when his value is at an extremely low ebb, given his awful results so far this year.
It’s possible that some clubs are willing to overlook the rough season and take a shot on him. The upcoming free agent class is very light on position players, meaning the crop of available trade candidates is likely to be similar. There are several contenders who could use middle infield reinforcements, such as the Giants, Marlins, Angels, Dodgers and Brewers. Those clubs may not have too many options for lining up on trades. The Cardinals will likely listen to offers on Paul DeJong, but he has his own issues with inconsistency and is no guarantee to be moved with a couple of club options remaining. Teams like the Orioles and Guardians have many infield prospects and could be open trading from their respective surpluses, but they would likely be looking to part with the players who aren’t helping them right now.
Perhaps that leads to someone making the Sox an intriguing offer, but it will undoubtedly be less than what they could have gotten in the past or could potentially get in the future. The other path would be to hang onto Anderson and hope he finishes strong enough for them to justify triggering his $14MM option for 2024 instead of the $1MM buyout. If he’s able to return to his previous level of performance, that would still be good value.
If Anderson were indeed able to get back to being a solid everyday player, he could perhaps help the club have better outcomes next year. Even if the club stayed on the outside of a playoff race, he could increase his trade value relative to where it is today. But the risk would be in hanging onto him and spending $13MM on another disappointing season. There’s also the injury question to consider, as various ailments have prevented Anderson from tallying 125 games in any individual season since 2018. He’s since battled a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger and this year’s left knee sprain.
The third path would be to sign Anderson to an extension, something he openly pined for back in February. No deal has come together up until this point and Anderson’s leverage has surely dropped dramatically since then, when he said there would be “no discounts” and that he wanted to be “treated fair.” It’s unknown if the Sox ever had any formal negotiations with Anderson’s camp, but any offers they may have made at that point would undoubtedly be dropped if talks resumed. If the club believed in Anderson’s ability to get back on track, perhaps they would try to buy low and get him to agree to a lengthier pact, though doing so would essentially carry the same risks as simply triggering his 2024 option, only more so.
Each path comes with its own upsides and downsides, depending on what the future holds. Holding onto him for 2024 or longer is the smart thing if he bounces back but the wrong move if he doesn’t, while the inverse is true of the trading path. What do you think is the right choice? Have your say in the poll below. (Link to poll for app users)
What Should The White Sox Do With Tim Anderson?
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Trade him now for whatever you can get 62% (4,674)
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Hold on and hope for a bounceback 31% (2,315)
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Try to get him to sign an extension 5% (365)
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other/don't know 3% (189)
Total votes: 7,543
The Rockies Should Make Their Catcher Available At The Trade Deadline
There’s no secret to the fact that the Rockies enter the 2023 trade deadline in position to be sellers. General manager Bill Schmidt already told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post last week that he’s received particularly high levels of interest in his veteran relievers. Within that same interview, Schmidt noted that he’d entertain offers on position players, but it would take a “legitimate” offer on someone like catcher Elias Diaz, who’s signed through the 2024 season, for the Rox to consider such a move.
It’s understandable for any baseball operations leader to take that stance. Any general manager or president of baseball ops is going to insist on a quality return — particularly for a player with multiple seasons of affordable control — unless ownership is simply mandating that they slash payroll. That’s clearly not the case in Colorado, where owner Dick Monfort annually broadcasts optimism about his team’s chances and is generally willing to spend (to varying extents) in free agency and via extensions for in-house players.
Diaz, 32, is a first-time All-Star this season, thanks largely to a .277/.328/.435 batting line. He’s smacked nine homers and added 15 doubles and a triple while walking at a 7.2% clip against a 21.3% strikeout rate. It’s not exactly elite production; wRC+ pegs him nine percent below average after weighting for his home park, and OPS+ has him four percent below average. However, relative to other catchers throughout the league, Diaz has been quite productive. The average catcher in 2023 is hitting .233/.300/.384. Even when adjusting for home park and league run-scoring environment, catchers have rated 13% worse than average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. In that regard, Diaz has been an above-average hitter relative to his position.
Of course, that’s just one season. Diaz’s offense has been a roller coaster throughout his career, peaking with a .286/.339/.452 slash (114 wRC+) in a much more pitcher-friendly Pittsburgh setting back in 2018 but at times bottoming out as it did just last year, when he hit .228/.281/.368 despite playing half his games at Coors Field. He’s had some good fortune on balls in play this year, with a .327 BABIP that’s about 50 points higher than the career .274 mark he carried into the season. There’s no major uptick in quality of contact that’s driven that change, either; Diaz averaged 88.4 mph off the bat in 2022 with a 39.3% hard-hit rate and is at 88.3 mph and 40.1% in those respective areas this year. It’s possible his bat will take a step back in the season’s second half, although even if it does, it shouldn’t wilt to last year’s surprisingly anemic levels.
Defensively, Diaz is a bit of a mixed bag. Framing metrics have universally panned Diaz’s work over the past two seasons, but he was above-average as recently as 2021. In terms of pitch blocking and throwing, Diaz is one of the game’s best. Dating back to 2021, he ranks eighth among all big league catchers in Statcast’s new Blocks Above Average metric, trailing only a handful of elite defenders (Austin Hedges, Sean Murphy, Jose Trevino, Jacob Stallings, J.T. Realmuto, Yan Gomes, Adley Rutschman).
It’s a similar story with Diaz’s throwing; he regularly boasts better-than-average pop times, and as recently as 2021 he paced the NL with a gaudy 42% caught-stealing rate. He’s at 29% this year, which is far better than it would’ve sounded in previous years, as the new rule changes in 2023 have contributed to a league-wide drop in caught-stealing numbers. The league average typically sat around 25% in seasons past, but it’s down to 20% this year. Statcast pegs Diaz as third-best in MLB with its Caught-Stealing Above Average metric (which strives to gauge throws on a case-by-case basis rather than treating all stolen base scenarios as equal).
There’s also Diaz’s contract to consider. He signed a three-year, $14.5MM extension with the Rockies a couple years ago, buying out his final arbitration season and first two free-agent years. He’s in the second year of that contract right now, earning a reasonable $5.5MM salary with a $6MM salary owed to him in 2024. It’s an affordable enough contract that any club could stomach it.
Relative to open-market prices, Diaz’s annual salary lines up with the type of money that steady mid-30s veterans or younger bounceback options might typically find. For context, Omar Narvaez signed a two-year, $15MM contract with an opt-out/player option this offseason despite having a down year in 2022. Mike Zunino signed a one-year, $6MM deal while seeking a rebound in Cleveland. The previously mentioned Hedges commanded a $5MM guarantee due solely to his defense. Diaz may not be an unmitigated bargain, but he’s at the very least a fairly priced backup — arguably one with some surplus value on his deal.
In general, it’s been a poor year for catchers throughout the league. Only 11 teams have received a wRC+ mark better than Diaz’s 91 from their catchers in 2023. Contenders and playoff hopefuls like the Rays, Astros, Reds, Marlins, Padres and Guardians have all received awful offensive production behind the plate. Speculatively speaking, Diaz could make sense for any of the bunch. That doesn’t mean they’ll all have interest, of course, but there ought to be a market for the veteran.
The Rockies, meanwhile, once again find themselves without a viable path to the postseason. Schmidt has voiced an understandable desire to add pitching to his system, and it stands to reason that there are clubs who might be willing to part with some arms in order to pry loose a catcher who could help not just for the current postseason push but also solidify the position next year. Colorado’s top catching prospect, Drew Romo, isn’t having a particularly strong season in Double-A this year but could conceivably be up in 2024 nonetheless. In the meantime, there’s little harm for a last-place club to let a journeyman like current backup Austin Wynns soak up the majority of starts in the season’s final couple months. He’s a sound defender who posted decent offensive production as recently as 2022. As far as 2024 is concerned, the Rox could always sign a veteran to a one-year deal this winter if need be.
Schmidt has pushed back against the notion of tearing everything down and trotting a Triple-A team out, citing the game’s integrity. That’s a commendable tack, and it provides some context for the type of offers he’d need to part with Diaz and other veterans. Diaz won’t simply be given away for the best offer, nor should he. It also bears pointing out that midseason trades of catchers can be difficult to pull off; acquiring a backstop in the midst of a playoff push and asking him to learn a new pitching staff on the fly is no easy task.
If no serious offers present themselves for Diaz, so be it. The Rockies can always listen in the offseason or hope for better results on a team scale in 2024. However, the Rox also have a history of hanging onto players who appear to be obvious trade candidates, either extending them (e.g Daniel Bard, C.J. Cron, arguably Diaz himself) or simply letting them walk in free agency (e.g Jon Gray, Trevor Story). Schmidt contended to Saunders that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers for players like Gray and Story, and that’s certainly possible. Story, in particular, at least netted the Rox a draft pick after rejecting a qualifying offer.
Diaz won’t be a QO candidate post-’24, however, and his trade value is very arguably at its apex. He’s a first-time All-Star with strong throwing/blocking skills, enough offense for his position and an affordable contract. This summer is the best time to extract a quality return for him. Colorado shouldn’t simply trade him for a handful of magic beans, but setting too high an asking price and holding onto him runs the risk of again losing a quality player for little to no return at a time when the organization as a whole is hungry for quality minor league talent.
The Orioles’ All-Star Relief Duo
The Midsummer Classic is a little less than 24 hours away. In the American League bullpen will be a pair of Orioles teammates to potentially make their respective first All-Star appearances. While neither player entered the Baltimore organization with much fanfare, their emergence as an elite late-game duo has helped the O’s to a 54-35 record that has them just two games behind the AL-leading Rays.
Félix Bautista first entered the professional ranks as an international signee of the Marlins. He spent two and a half years in the Miami system, didn’t advance past rookie ball, and was released. The Orioles signed him midway through the 2016 campaign. Bautista remained in the low minors for a while, not even reaching Low-A until his age-24 season in 2019.
Given that background, it’s not surprising he never appeared on an organizational top 30 prospects list at Baseball America. He’d go unselected in the Rule 5 draft on a couple occasions before securing a spot on the O’s 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason.
As a 27-year-old rookie, he somewhat surprisingly broke camp last year despite walking over 15% of minor league opponents the preceding season. Bautista rewarded the organization’s faith by immediately dominating MLB hitters. He worked to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out a little under 35% of opponents. By year’s end, he’d ascended to a ninth-inning role vacated by a midseason trade we’ll revisit later.
Bautista entered 2023 assured of a high-leverage spot in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen if healthy. The latter caveat was no sure thing in exhibition play. Bautista was hampered early in camp by knee and shoulder issues. Fortunately for the Orioles, he was not only ready to go by Opening Day, he’d taken his game to another level.
The towering 6’8″ hurler was MLB’s best reliever in the first half. He’s thrown 42 innings with a 1.07 ERA, locking down 23 of 28 save opportunities. Bautista has incredibly punched out 84 of the 165 hitters who’ve stepped in against him. His 50.9% strikeout rate leads the majors by a wide margin. The 7.7 point gap between Bautista’s figure and Aroldis Chapman’s 43.2% second-place mark exceeds the difference between Chapman and Trevor Richards in 11th place (minimum 20 relief innings).
Among that same group, only Robert Stephenson is getting swinging strikes more frequently than Bautista, who has gotten whiffs on 20.9% of his offerings. Jhoan Durán, Chapman and Jordan Hicks are the three pitchers averaging better than the even 100 MPH on Bautista’s four-seam. There’s an argument Bautista is the best reliever in the game and he’s on his way to getting some down-ballot Cy Young support this fall.
Yennier Cano isn’t likely to appear on any Cy Young ballots, but he could find some Rookie of the Year support. His emergence might be even more unexpected than Bautista’s. Cano didn’t get to the big leagues until after his 28th birthday. The Twins signed the right-hander out of Cuba a few seasons back and selected him onto the MLB roster last May. He made 10 appearances in a depth role for Minnesota, allowing more than an earned run per inning.
At last summer’s deadline, the O’s and Twins lined up on an aforementioned trade. Baltimore dealt then-closer Jorge López to Minnesota for a four-player package. Cano was the only one of the group with any big league experience but arguably perceived as the fourth player in the return. He spent most of the late-summer at Triple-A Norfolk, only pitching three times for Baltimore at the MLB level.
Cano opened this season back in Norfolk. The O’s recalled him in the middle of April. The 6’4″ righty never gave Baltimore an opportunity to send him back down. Cano has posted a 1.48 ERA over 42 2/3 innings. He quickly jumped up the depth chart and has already picked up four saves and 19 holds.
Unlike Bautista, Cano isn’t racking up whiffs. His 23.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging strike percentage are around average for a reliever. He has excelled by limiting contact quality, keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 64.3% clip. He owns the fifth-highest grounder rate among relievers with 20+ frames.
Cano had always shown a knack for keeping on the ball on the ground throughout his minor league tenure. He’d been prone to bouts of wildness throughout that time, though, routinely walking opponents at a double-digit percent clip. His strike-throwing has been exceptional this season, as he’s handed out free passes to less than 4% of batters faced. Whether he can keep pounding the zone at this rate remains to be seen, but the grounders should make him a quality high-leverage arm even if his walks were to move closer to league average.
The Bautista-Cano pairing has become one of the game’s most effective relief duos. The Orioles probably didn’t anticipate this kind of dominance from either pitcher, but their respective acquisitions — Bautista as a minor league signee, Cano as a small part of a bigger trade — are strong credits to their scouting staffs. They’ll be in the national spotlight tomorrow in Seattle, and they’re doing their part to get Baltimore back to the postseason after a long rebuild.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo
We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500
When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444
Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.
Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453
Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.
Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.
Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA
Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).
Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603
With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.
Three More
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.
River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.
Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?
This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.
One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.
The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.
Rental Players
Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.
The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.
The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.
Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.
The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.
Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.
Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year
Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.
Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.
Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.
He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.
Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.
Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.
Longer-Term Players
Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.
He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.
Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.
Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.
Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.
Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.
Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.
His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.
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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.
The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie
The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.
Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.
Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.
The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.
Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.
Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.
That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.
Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.
There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.
That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.
Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.
With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Poll: How Should San Diego Approach The Trade Deadline?
When Padres team chairman Peter Seidler recently discussed his vision for the club ahead of the coming trade deadline, he made clear he believed in the current iteration of the club and seemed to have no desire to sell at the trade deadline. That confidence comes in spite of an ugly first half of the 2023 season. In 88 games so far this season, the Padres have gone just 41-47, leaving them ten games back looking up at three teams in the NL West. The club’s Wild Card outlook isn’t much better, as San Diego is 8.5 games back with five teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot
Of course, club ownership rarely directly makes baseball operations decisions. Given that, the decision on whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline in three weeks will likely be made by Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. A notoriously aggressive GM, Preller has built a star-studded roster with a massive payroll in recent years. Since the end of the 2020 campaign, when San Diego first made the playoffs under Preller, the club has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto in blockbuster trades while signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal and signing each of Darvish, Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to big money extensions.
To reverse course completely would be near impossible. Musgrove and right-hander Robert Suarez are both signed through the 2027 campaign, while Darvish is signed through 2028. Infielder Jake Cronenworth is signed through the 2030 season, Machado and Bogaerts are both signed through 2033, while Tatis is signed through the end of the 2034 campaign. Between those seven players, the Padres are on the hook for roughly $107.5MM in terms of actual dollars and just over $137MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. With so many big money contracts on the books not just for next season, but for the better part of the decade or longer, trading long-term assets seems both unwise and difficult.
Given the club’s position, it’s possible that the front office will decide to double down and hope the team’s performance will improve in the second half. Suarez has yet to pitch this season and could help stabilize the bullpen upon his return, while each of Darvish, Machado, and Bogaerts are multi-time All Stars with lengthy track records of success; it’s surely not hard for Preller’s front office to talk themselves into that group improving upon their current 2023 performance going forward. With plenty of talent on the roster and glaring holes behind the plate, at DH, and on the bench, San Diego could retain their key players and deal for moderate upgrades to the weakest areas on the roster in hopes of things improving during the season’s final two months.
On the other hand, the club could look to retool for the future. Snell and Hader would immediately be among the most coveted rental arms on the market if the Padres listened on the pair, while Seth Lugo would surely interest a variety of contenders given his ability to swing in and out of the rotation. Lightly selling would allow the Padres to recoup value on their pending free agents and bolster a farm system that’s been raided by years of aggressive buy-side deals. What’s more, it would allow San Diego to take advantage of a trade market with few clearly established sellers.
Of course, the club could opt to take a middle ground option as well, dealing some of their pending free agents while also adding big league pieces with multiple years of control in hopes of giving themselves a chance to bounce back during the second half while attempting to maximize the club’s odds of winning in 2024, Soto’s last year of team control. Such an approach comes with its own unique risks, however. Dealing away key players can have impacts in the clubhouse, as the Brewers saw when dealing Hader to San Diego last year and Seattle saw after trading closer Kendall Graveman in 2021.
With just three weeks left until the trade deadline, the Padres will be forced to make a decision in the near future. How should San Diego approach this trade deadline? Do they need to stay the course and give themselves the best chance to win while Soto is under team control? Should they try to rebuild their farm system and look toward 2024 and beyond? Or perhaps they should try to do a bit of both?
(poll link for app users)
How Should The Padres Approach The Trade Deadline This Year?
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They should do a mix of buying and selling to maximize their odds of winning in 2024. 49% (2,429)
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They should keep the team together and make some small additions. 29% (1,432)
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They should focus on the future and sell to rebuild their farm system. 21% (1,055)
Total votes: 4,916
Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates: Early July Edition
With the calendar flipping to July, trade season has officially arrived. We’ve already seen a couple early deals. The Angels swung a pair of late-June moves for stopgap veteran help on the infield. The Rangers closed out that month with the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, arguably the top rental reliever available and a player who was ranked fifth on an early draft of this list.
As we do every summer, MLBTR will look at the top deadline candidates. This is not a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, which inherently involves subjectivity. A player in the top ten might have significantly less appeal than someone at the bottom of the list, but if they’re far more likely to be dealt for a return of some note, they’ll be higher on this kind of ranking.
With that brief methodology aside, let’s get to the list:
1. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox
The #4 player on our recent Free Agent Power Rankings, Giolito is the only member of our top six free agents who has much of a chance to move at the deadline. That makes him a natural fit to top this list.
The White Sox got off to a slow start and have never pulled themselves out. They’re vaguely kept afloat by an AL Central in which no team has consistently been better than .500, but they’re 7 1/2 games back with a -59 run differential. It’s division or bust, and they’re only alive in the division because of the other clubs’ mediocrity.
Giolito isn’t quite an ace, but he has put last year’s struggles behind him and again looks like a #2 arm on a contender. He has been durable, pounds the strike zone, and misses bats at an above-average clip. Over 18 starts, the 6’6″ righty has a 3.50 ERA with a quality 25.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk percentage. He’s a clear playoff-caliber starter on a market that might not have many of those.
The White Sox could make him a qualifying offer if they hold onto him for the stretch run. That’s theoretically possible given the divisional context, but they’d get much more future value if they traded him this summer. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote in May that the Sox were unlikely to try to retain Giolito past the 2023 campaign.
2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Nationals
Candelario is a virtual lock to move within the next few weeks. Washington signed the third baseman to a $5MM deal after he was non-tendered by the Tigers. The move has worked out beautifully, as the switch-hitting infielder has posted a .261/.338/.477 line with strong defensive metrics.
Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was setting a high asking price on Candelario early in deadline season. That’s understandable with a month to go, but the club eventually figures to pull the trigger on the best offer available. Candelario would be a fringe qualifying offer candidate, so Washington’s best chance to recoup future value is by moving him this summer.
3. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals
The Royals already moved Chapman. Barlow seems likely to follow him out of Kansas City. There’s a little less urgency on Barlow, since K.C. can control him via arbitration for 2024. They don’t have a shot at competing this season, though, and Barlow’s appeal would drop next winter or at the ’24 deadline (when an acquiring team would only have his services for one playoff push).
Barlow posted a sub 2.50 ERA over exactly 74 1/3 innings in both seasons between 2021-22. He hasn’t been quite as effective this year, carrying a 4.06 mark over 31 frames. His walks are up and his average fastball velocity is down a couple ticks from where it sat two years ago. Regardless, he has proven himself capable of handling the ninth inning and continues to miss bats in droves. He’s picking up swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings for a third consecutive season and is striking out just under a third of opposing hitters. With a season and a half of club control, he’s the most valuable realistic trade candidate on the Royals’ roster.
4. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals
5. Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals
The Cardinals are among a handful of National League teams amidst very disappointing seasons. St. Louis has gone from first to last in the NL Central. The division is weak enough it’s still vaguely in sight, but the Cards haven’t gotten on the run necessary to pull themselves back into the mix. They’re a long shot to make the playoffs at this point, so their top impending free agents are strong trade candidates.
Montgomery is one of the better starters on next year’s free agent market. The left-hander is a capable #3 arm, a mid-3.00s ERA type. He has allowed 3.28 runs per nine this season, backing that up with solid underlying marks across the board. He’d almost certainly receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals could keep him and get back a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. They should be able to bring in a more valuable prospect package in trade, though.
Flaherty is unlikely to receive a QO. He wouldn’t bring back a Montgomery return in trade, but he’d still have some appeal on the market. The right-hander is no longer the Cy Young caliber arm he showed in 2019, as various injuries have limited him over the past few seasons. He has had an up-and-down 2023 campaign, walking over 12% of opponents and posting a 4.60 ERA through 16 starts. Flaherty has decent strikeout and grounder marks, but he’s more of a high-variance rotation add than a lock to start a playoff game at this point.
6. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs
Stroman has had an excellent second season in Chicago. The right-hander carries a personal-low 2.76 ERA across 107 2/3 innings with peripherals that closely match his best days in Toronto. He’s inducing grounders on almost three-fifths of batted balls and has consistently prevented home runs at an elite clip. It’s more of a contact management profile than an overpowering one, but his 21.3% strikeout rate isn’t far off the 22% league average for starting pitchers.
Despite a +24 run differential, the Cubs are five games under .500 and six games back in the Wild Card race. It’s not impossible, but they’d need a strong run over these next few weeks to play off the selling bubble.
Stroman isn’t a true rental, as his contract contains a $21MM player option for next season. That’s pure downside for an acquiring team — he’d only exercise it if he has a disastrous second half or suffers a serious injury — but the likeliest scenario is that Stroman continues pitching well and decides to test the open market. Stroman has publicly angled for an extension with the Cubs. The team has seemingly not shown the same interest. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic wrote over the weekend they were unlikely to explore a long-team deal before the trade deadline.
The Cubs can’t issue Stroman a qualifying offer, since he has already received one in his career and players can’t be tagged with a QO twice under the CBA. A trade would be the only way to land compensation if he declines the player option and the team is not interested in a new contract.
7. David Robertson, RP, Mets
With Chapman off the market, Robertson now appears the top rental reliever available. It’s the second straight season in which the veteran righty could be a coveted deadline piece. The Cubs brought back pitching prospect Ben Brown from Philadelphia last summer; the Mets could do something similar this year.
Robertson signed a $10MM free agent deal and was pushed into the ninth inning by Edwin Díaz’s catastrophic knee injury. The Mets have had a disastrous season, but that’s no fault of Robertson. He has a 1.88 ERA over 35 appearances, striking out 30% of batters faced. It’s rare to find relievers with the consistency and playoff experience Robertson brings to the table. He’ll be in demand, and Mets’ owner Steve Cohen admitted last week the team wasn’t close enough to contention to buy. Perhaps an ongoing four-game win streak can kickstart the season and prevent a sell-off, but New York is still 6 1/2 games out of the Wild Card with five teams to pass.
8. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians
Bieber’s trade candidacy rests more on the Guardians’ pitching depth than their competitive window. While Cleveland has underperformed, they’re still very much a postseason contender. The Guardians are two games back of the Twins in the AL Central. They were in a similar spot at this point last year before getting hot in September to run away with the division.
Trading Bieber strictly for prospects seems unlikely, but Cleveland could shop him in an effort to inject some life into the offense. Adding controllable outfield talent could be particularly welcome. It’s a script Cleveland has followed on a few occasions in the past. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger have all been shipped off as the organization’s pitching development pipeline churns out similarly productive and less expensive young pitchers. Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee have all gotten to the big leagues this season.
Bieber hasn’t been as dominant as he was a few years back. His velocity hasn’t been the same since a 2021 shoulder injury and this year’s 19.3% strikeout rate is the first below-average mark of his career. Even if he’s no longer a Cy Young caliber hurler, Bieber looks the part of an effective #3 type. He’s sixth in the majors with 110 2/3 innings pitched and sports a 3.66 ERA with plus control and a solid 46.3% grounder rate. The right-hander is making a hair over $10MM this season and is eligible for arbitration once more before hitting free agency.
9. Michael Lorenzen, SP, Tigers
The Tigers are still within shouting distance in the AL Central. Perhaps they play well enough over the next few weeks to hold off a teardown. 11 games under .500 with a -86 run differential, they don’t look like a playoff team and would be more or less buried if they played in any other division. This was always likely to be an evaluation year for a new front office regime, one which saw them deal short-term veterans at the deadline.
Lorenzen is probably the most appealing of the rental players on the roster. The athletic right-hander is playing on an $8.5MM free agent deal. Over 14 starts entering this afternoon’s outing, he carries a 4.28 ERA. He’s missing bats at a career-low rate but throwing plenty more strikes than he has in years past. Lorenzen looks like a stable #5 starter, a player contenders can bring in to fortify their rotation depth and kick to the bullpen (where he’s had success in prior seasons) come playoff time. The return wouldn’t be huge, but this is more or less what the Tigers envisioned when they signed him last December.
10. Tommy Pham, LF, Mets
Pham started the season ice cold, but he has somewhat quietly been one of the sport’s best hitters since the calendar turned to May. He’s up to a .286/.355/.510 line through 217 plate appearances overall. At his best, Pham has combined stellar plate discipline with huge exit velocities and solid contact skills. He hits a few too many grounders to be a prototypical power threat, but he’s a well-rounded offensive player who can hit left and right-handed pitching alike.
The 35-year-old is a fringe corner outfield defender at this stage of his career. He’s an affordable bat a contender could feel comfortable plugging into the middle of a lineup for the stretch run. Pham is playing this season on a $6MM salary, and Cohen already showed a willingness to pay down money on Eduardo Escobar to facilitate a better trade return. New York could do the same on Pham, who acknowledged to Bill Ladson of MLB.com last week that the club’s surprising struggles make him a viable trade candidate.
11. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs
Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17MM free agent guarantee after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. The buy-low flier initially looked like an excellent move. The former MVP hit .271/.343/.493 through 163 plate appearances while playing plus center field defense through mid-May. His exit velocities were still nowhere close to peak levels, but he’d dramatically sliced his strikeout rate to put together a well above-average overall batting line.
A left knee contusion interrupted that hot start and cost Bellinger nearly a month of action. He’s hitting .317 in 62 plate appearances since returning but has walked just four times and doesn’t have a home run in 17 games. After easing him back to action at first base, the Cubs returned him to center field last week.
Bellinger isn’t back to his MVP form, but he’s amidst easily his best season since 2020. It’s rare to find plus defensive center fielders with any kind of offensive upside. Bellinger can impact the game on both sides of the ball, even if it’s now more of a contact-first profile than an all-around impact bat. He’ll return to free agency next winter, likely by declining his end of a mutual option, making him a straightforward rental trade candidate. Unlike Stroman, Bellinger is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. The Cubs could land draft pick compensation, but they’d probably do better than that in trade.
12. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Tigers
Rodriguez just returned from a finger injury yesterday. He got lit up by the A’s, but he carried a 2.13 ERA through 11 starts before landing on the shelf. The veteran southpaw has punched out over a quarter of opponents and shown his typically strong control. After his first season in Detroit was marred by injuries and personal issues, Rodriguez looks like the mid-rotation arm the Tigers expected when they signed him to a five-year, $77MM guarantee two offseasons back.
Few pitchers who could be available in trade have performed as well as Rodriguez has through the season’s first half. Were he a pure rental, he might be at the top of this list. His contract makes a trade far trickier to execute. Rodriguez can opt out of the final three years and $49MM on his deal at season’s end. He’s ineligible for a qualifying offer on a non-competitive team. If the Tigers hold onto him past the deadline, there’s a strong chance they lose him next winter for nothing.
On the other hand, the remaining money represents rather significant downside for a potential acquiring club. If Rodriguez suffers another injury or sees his performance tail off, the team could be saddled with a contract that looked like a landmine just a few months ago. It’s a more extreme version of the downside present with Stroman, thereby pushing him down the list a few spots.
13. Lance Lynn, SP, White Sox
Lynn has had a rough 2023 campaign. He owns a 6.47 ERA over 96 innings, a figure almost entirely attributable to an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed. That’ll be tough for a number of fans and some front offices to look past. Still, there’s some amount of appeal for teams that feel Lynn can get the longball under control — either via natural regression or with a move to a more favorable home park for pitchers.
The veteran righty is striking out just under 27% of batters faced while racking up whiffs on an excellent 13.5% of his offerings. He doesn’t issue many walks, hasn’t missed a start this year, and posted a sub-4.00 ERA every season between 2019-22. The homers and a slight velocity dip are obvious concerns, but Lynn’s ability to miss bats is strong as ever. The White Sox hold an $18MM option on his services for 2024. That’s probably beyond their comfort zone, which makes marketing him this summer a logical choice.
14. Mark Canha, LF/1B, Mets
15. Brooks Raley, RP, Mets
Canha and Raley are the next tier down of Mets’ trade candidates. Unlike Robertson and Pham, they’re not certainly headed for free agency. New York could bring both players back via club option — Canha at $11.5MM ($2MM buyout), Raley at $6.25MM ($1.25MM buyout). Both prices are a little lofty for their current production but not out of the question for a Mets’ club that spends more freely than any other.
If New York is leaning towards a buyout on either player, they could make them available to a clearer ’23 contender. Canha’s a veteran righty bat who plays decent corner outfield defense. He’s hitting .248/.344/.405 on the season, including a .239/.360/.437 mark against lefty pitching. Raley is a situational left-hander out of the bullpen. He owns a 2.35 ERA with an above-average 26% strikeout rate. He’s been better against right-handers than lefties this season but carries traditional platoon splits over the course of his career.
16. Paul Blackburn, SP, Athletics
Blackburn might be the most valuable trade chip on a stripped-down A’s roster. The righty spent the first couple months on the injured list with fingernail/blister issues. He’s been effective in seven starts since returning, working to a 4.50 ERA with good control and a solid 24.7% strikeout rate over 36 innings.
While he’s not overpowering, Blackburn has looked the part of a strike-throwing back-end starter when healthy. Already 29, he’s probably not a core piece of the ongoing rebuild. He’s an affordable arm who should appeal to contenders looking for stability at the back of the starting staff. Blackburn is making $1.9MM this season and is arbitration-eligible through 2025.
17. Joe Kelly, RP, White Sox
18. Keynan Middleton, RP, White Sox
19. Reynaldo López, RP, White Sox
If the White Sox decide to look ahead to 2024, they’d be a major factor on the relief market. Chicago has a trio of potential impending free agent relievers (Kelly’s contract contains a ’24 club option at a net $8.5MM decision) who’d attract varying levels of interest.
Kelly is one of the game’s hardest throwers and has a track record of an enviable strikeout/ground-ball combination. He has had an up-and-down career but looks like a high-leverage arm when he’s going well. He just landed on the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation this afternoon. That could obviously impact his trade candidacy, though it’s unknown how long he’ll be out of action.
Middleton appeared on his way to journeyman status a few months ago. He has proven to be one of the top minor league signees of last winter, pitching 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA and above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks. López has struggled with walks and home runs and has an ERA above 5.00, but his fastball pushes triple-digits and he misses plenty of bats. Another club figures to roll the dice on that upside despite his subpar overall production.
20. Aaron Civale, SP, Guardians
To a lesser extent, Civale’s trade candidacy follows the same logic as Bieber’s. The Guardians have ample young pitching that could allow them to cash in a veteran arm for short-term offensive help. Civale isn’t as appealing as Bieber. The 28-year-old righty has been more of a back-of-the-rotation type throughout his career. This year’s 2.96 ERA over eight starts is more attributable to batted ball and sequencing fortune than an overhaul in his approach.
Civale is a control specialist with a 3.95 ERA in just shy of 400 career innings. It’s #4 starter production on a rate basis, although he’s battled injuries and never topped 125 MLB frames in a single season. Civale is making $2.6MM this year and eligible for arbitration twice more thereafter.
21. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals
DeJong has reemerged as a viable trade candidate with a nice 2023 campaign. The righty-hitting shortstop is hitting .234/.310/.449 with 12 homers over 229 plate appearances, including a .275/.387/.510 showing against left-handed pitching. After two dismal offensive showings in 2021-22, he has played his way back into regular shortstop duty in St. Louis.
The Cardinals hold a $12.5MM option ($2MM buyout) on his services for 2024. That’s not an outlandish number, particularly in light of a dreadful upcoming shortstop class in free agency, but it still seems likely St. Louis would opt for the buyout with Tommy Edman on hand and prospect Masyn Winn not far off. With hope for a playoff push getting fainter with every demoralizing loss, the Cardinals should gauge the trade market.
22. Justin Turner, 3B, Red Sox
23. James Paxton, SP, Red Sox
24. Nick Pivetta, RP/SP, Red Sox
25. Adam Duvall, CF, Red Sox
The status of this group could well come down to the next few weeks. The Red Sox are above .500 but in last place in a loaded AL East. They’re four games out of the Wild Card with two teams to surpass. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has acknowledged the deadline could go in a number of directions based on the team’s upcoming performance.
If Boston were to fall more clearly out of contention, anyone in this group could go. Paxton and Duvall are pure rentals. The veteran left-hander has rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons to post a 2.70 ERA with an elite 31.1% strikeout rate over 10 starts. Duvall was on a tear early this year before breaking his wrist and missing two months. He has been ice cold since coming back but has a long track record of right-handed power production and solid outfield defense, albeit with on-base concerns.
Turner looks likely to join Paxton and Duvall on the open market. He has a $13.4MM player option. That comes with a $6.7MM buyout, meaning he’d only need to top the matching $6.7MM difference on the open market to make opting out a reasonable financial strategy. Considering he’s hitting .282/.354/.461, he looks on his way to doing that with ease.
Pivetta has never consistently found his stride as a starting pitcher, but he’s been excellent since moving to relief a couple months ago. Over 24 frames as a reliever, he owns a 2.63 ERA while striking out more than 32% of batters faced. He could draw interest either in his current multi-inning bullpen role or from a team looking to stretch him back out for rotation work. Pivetta is making $5.35MM and eligible for arbitration one more time.
26. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies
Cron is an impending free agent on a last place team. He’s a fairly straightforward trade candidate if he’s performing well enough to draw interest. The veteran first baseman has had a tough season to this point, hitting .248/.293/.441 and missing a few weeks with a back problem. He returned to the diamond last week and has around a month to try to play his way into some interest.
The right-handed hitter topped 25 home runs in each of the four full seasons between 2018-22. He’s making $7.5MM and could draw attention as a role-playing power bat, particularly if the Rox pay down some of the deal.
27. Brad Hand, RP, Rockies
28. José Cisnero, RP, Tigers
29. Jordan Hicks, RP, Cardinals
30. Chris Stratton, RP, Cardinals
31. Michael Fulmer, RP, Cubs
Each player in this tier could be an impending free agent reliever on a fringe or worse contender. Hand has had a nice bounceback season after signing with Colorado over the winter. His contract contains a $7MM club option that becomes a mutual provision if he’s traded. Cisnero is a 34-year-old righty with a 2.18 ERA and above-average peripherals in 33 innings for the Tigers.
Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. He’s running huge strikeout and ground-ball numbers while walking nearly 15% of opponents. Stratton, his St. Louis teammate, has fanned just over a quarter of opponents and soaked up 42 1/3 innings through 31 outings in middle relief. Fulmer started his Cubs’ career slowly but has allowed only two runs in 16 innings going back to the beginning of June.
32. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs
Hendricks has been effective in eight starts since returning from last year’s season-ending shoulder injury. Through 47 innings, the veteran righty carries a 2.64 ERA. His 44.2% grounder rate is roughly average, and he’s never missed bats or thrown hard. Few pitchers have better control, though, and Hendricks is currently healthy and producing.
This could be his final season with the Cubs. Chicago likely wouldn’t bring him back on a $16MM club option, so he’s more or less a rental starter on a fringe contender. Maybe the trade returns wouldn’t be significant enough for the Cubs to part with a player who has meant so much to the franchise — especially if they can still see a path to contention — but it wouldn’t be surprising if his name comes up in discussions.
33. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
34. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
The Padres are riding a three-game win streak, pulling them to 41-46. They’re six games out of a Wild Card spot with three teams to jump. It’s an uphill battle but one an underperforming San Diego team feels they can achieve. Both president of baseball operations A.J. Preller (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) and chairman Peter Seidler said last week the team is still focused on contending this year.
San Diego probably isn’t listening to trade offers on Hader or Snell yet. If they flounder again over the next few weeks, the standings might force the club’s hand to put their impending free agents on the market. If that happens, Snell and Hader would vault near the top of this list in a hurry.
35. Tyler O’Neill, LF, Cardinals
36. Joey Bart, C, Giants
37. Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Red Sox
38. Jo Adell, LF, Angels
39. Josh Rojas, 3B, D-Backs
40. Nick Senzel, 3B/CF, Reds
Broadly speaking, this group of six players are speculative change-of-scenery candidates. O’Neill has paired 30-homer power with Gold Glove defense at his best. He hasn’t performed as well since the start of 2022 and has spent the past couple months on the injured list with a back problem. He’s likely to be back in the majors by the trade deadline. The Cardinals have a number of younger, more affordable outfielders and could try to move O’Neill this summer rather than face a tough call on whether to tender him a contract for his final arbitration season.
Bart is a former second overall pick who has been leapfrogged on the Giants’ catching depth chart by Patrick Bailey. He’s a .223/.293/.342 hitter at the big league level but has been better in Triple-A.
Dalbec has been inconsistent as a big leaguer, flashing huge power but striking out a ton. He’s having a monster season in Triple-A (.298/.415/.654 with 20 homers in 54 games) but only gotten 14 scattered MLB plate appearances this year. Dalbec recently admitted to Christopher Smith of MassLive that he doesn’t see a clear path to regular playing time in Boston with Rafael Devers, Justin Turner and Triston Casas all on the roster.
Adell is another former top prospect who has mashed in the upper minors but struggled to make contact against big league pitching. He’ll be out of options next season and has only appeared in three MLB games this year. Maybe the Mike Trout hamate injury clears the path to everyday playing for Adell at Angel Stadium, but the Halos are under pressure to win now and could try to move him for a lower-upside but more stable veteran outfielder.
Rojas was a good bat-first utility player for the Diamondbacks in 2021-22. He had an awful start to the ’23 campaign, hitting .235/.301/.306 without a home run in 57 games. Arizona optioned him late last month, and he recently landed on the minor league injured list. His value is at perhaps its lowest ebb, but he’d be a non-tender candidate next winter. Arizona could sell low to a team like the Tigers or Royals that can afford to give him a few months to rediscover his previous level.
Senzel is a former second overall draftee who hasn’t found much big league success. The Reds have graduated a number of infield prospects and pushed him to the bench. He’s not hitting right-handed pitching at all but carries a .373/.422/.627 line against southpaws. Senzel can play multiple positions and could be of interest as a righty-swinging utility piece.
41. Hunter Harvey, RP, Nationals
42. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals
43. Alex Lange, RP, Tigers
44. Jason Foley, RP, Tigers
This crop of relievers all has multiple seasons of control on non-competitive teams. They’re less likely to be dealt than the rental relievers mentioned above but would bring back stronger returns if made available.
Harvey has had myriad injury issues throughout his career but been healthy and effective this year. He owns a 3.16 ERA while striking out nearly 28% of opponents over 37 innings. Finnegan has a 3.34 ERA with average peripherals across 35 frames.
Lange has spotty control but misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at plus rates. He’s taken over as Detroit’s closer and is under arbitration control through 2027. Foley is also controllable through the ’27 campaign and has somewhat quietly had a breakout year. The righty averages north of 97 MPH on his fastball and has induced grounders on over three-fifths of batted balls. He has a 2.17 ERA in 37 appearances.
45. Rich Hill, SP, Pirates
46. Carlos Santana, 1B, Pirates
The Pirates have faded after a strong April and could find themselves listening on short-term players. Pittsburgh isn’t truly rebuilding anymore, but both Hill and Santana are veterans on a team that’s now six games under .500. The seemingly ageless Hill has a 4.50 ERA with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers over 17 starts. Santana has a modest .241/.320/.407 line over 321 plate appearances, but he’s a switch-hitter and a plus defender at first base.
47. Yan Gomes, C, Cubs
Gomes is another of the Cubs’ potential impending free agents who could find some interest. It’d be relatively modest in his case, but he’s a respected veteran backstop having a decent season. The 35-year-old is hitting .265/.308/.412 with seven homers in 185 trips to the plate. His contract contains a $6MM club option for next season.
48. Teoscar Hernández, RF, Mariners
The Mariners are another team that finds itself on the fringe of contention. Seattle is a game under .500 and five out of a Wild Card spot with four clubs to surpass. They’re not likely to sell off veterans until right up to the deadline, but a bad few weeks could force the front office to listen.
Hernández hasn’t hit as expected during his first season in Seattle. He owns a .252/.301/.441 line with 15 homers over 85 games. That’s below the level he’d shown over his past few years in Toronto. Hernández has picked things up after a terrible first two months, though, and he’d surely find some interest if the M’s were to put him on the market.
49. Lane Thomas, RF, Nationals
Thomas has proven an excellent pickup for Washington since heading over in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Jon Lester to St. Louis. The right-handed hitting outfielder is amidst a career year, hitting .304/.351/.509 with 14 homers through 365 plate appearances. He has been a nightmare for opposing southpaws, teeing off at a .385/.434/.683 clip when holding the platoon advantage.
Soon to turn 28, Thomas is eligible for arbitration for two seasons beyond this one. The Nationals would hold firm to a lofty asking price given that extended control window, but they’re near the nadir of a rebuild and probably won’t contend for a postseason spot until Thomas’ final year of arbitration at the earliest.
50. Max Scherzer, SP, Mets
There might be no more fascinating potential trade candidate than Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young winner is the second season of a record-setting free agent deal that pays him $43.333MM annually. He can opt out at year’s end, leaving the Mets in an interesting position.
If New York feels Scherzer is likely to opt out and they’re not viable contenders this season, exploring trade possibilities makes sense. The contract makes him a very difficult player to actually move, however. Scherzer has full no-trade rights for one, although there’s been some chatter he could waive that to facilitate a trade to a contender. The salary is high enough a number of teams wouldn’t even try to make it work, though Cohen’s willingness to pay down contracts for a better return could solve that issue.
That’s before getting to Scherzer’s performance, which has been more good than exceptional this year. He has a 4.03 ERA across 82 2/3 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers are excellent but below typical levels. He’s allowing more home runs than ever before. There’s no doubt Scherzer is still a playoff-caliber starter, but his production this season hasn’t been that of a true Game One ace.
Others To Watch
A’s: Seth Brown, Shintaro Fujinami, Sam Moll, Ryan Noda
Astros: Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers
Cardinals: Giovanny Gallegos
Cubs: Mark Leiter Jr., Drew Smyly, Patrick Wisdom
Mariners: Tom Murphy
Mets: Carlos Carrasco, Adam Ottavino
Nationals: Corey Dickerson, Carl Edwards Jr., Dominic Smith
Orioles: Jorge Mateo
Padres: Luis García
Pirates: Austin Hedges
Red Sox: Enrique Hernández, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin
Rockies: Elias Díaz, Randal Grichuk, Pierce Johnson, Jurickson Profar, Brent Suter*
Royals: Matt Duffy, Amir Garrett, Zack Greinke*, Nicky Lopez
Twins: Max Kepler
White Sox: Tim Anderson, Mike Clevinger*, Yasmani Grandal
* Currently on injured list
The Rays’ Biggest Free Agent Investment Is Paying Off
While the Rays aren’t exactly threatening the luxury tax threshold any time soon, the team has been increasingly open to at least some modest spending over the last couple of years. Wander Franco‘s 11-year, $182MM extension is obviously the headliner of those moves, but Tampa Bay has also locked up the likes of Jeffrey Springs (four years/$31MM), Yandy Diaz (three years/$24MM), Pete Fairbanks (three years/$12MM), Tyler Glasnow (two years/$30.35MM), and Manuel Margot (two years/$19MM) to multi-year commitments.
These deals were all extensions, however, and thus Zach Eflin‘s three-year, $40MM contract from last winter was more of an outlier in franchise history. The $40MM represented the most money the Rays have ever given to a free agent over the franchise’s 26 seasons of existence. The Rays’ willingness to make such an expenditure surprised some pundits, for both financial and baseball-related reasons — why was a lower-spending team deep in starting pitching willing to take a relatively big (by their standards) plunge on a starter with a checkered health history?
Three months into the 2023 season, Tampa’s decision is looking quite wise. In the latest example of the “you can never have too much pitching” credo, the Rays’ rotation depth has been tested by multiple injuries. Springs underwent Tommy John surgery, and Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain) and Josh Fleming (elbow soreness) are both on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least August. Glasnow didn’t make his season debut until late May, after recovering from his own rehab from a Tommy John procedure in 2021.
Against the backdrop of these injury concerns, Eflin’s production has been invaluable. While the righty had a minimum 15-day IL stint himself in April due to back tightness, Eflin has been a stabilizing force within the rotation, and one of many reasons why the Rays have baseball’s best record.
Over 90 1/3 innings this season, Eflin has a 3.29 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate. The K% is Eflin’s highest over a “full” season (he had a 28.6% strikeout rate over 59 innings in the shortened 2020 campaign), while his walk rate is among the league’s best for the third straight year. The righty’s 52.7% grounder rate is also a career best, while his 37.8% hard-hit ball rate is (if only slightly) above the league average. There isn’t much variance between Eflin’s real-world stats and his expected stats, as his 3.34 SIERA and .277 xwOBA are almost identical to his 3.29 ERA and .274 wOBA.
Eflin is getting great results from his sinker, which has been his primary pitch since 2020. However, he is throwing the sinker only 34.7% of time, teaming it in a slightly more even mix with his curve (28.7% usage) and cutter (27.8%). As such, Eflin’s curveball has now also become a premium offering, and the sinker/curve combo has helped offset the cutter’s much shakier results. Combined with the occasional usage of a changeup and four-seamer to keep batters guessing, and Eflin is on pace for a career year in his age-29 season.
The biggest difference for Eflin in 2023, however, is just that he has thus far been pretty healthy. His 90 1/3 innings already marks the fourth-highest innings total of his eight MLB seasons, and he threw only 86 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason with the Phillies in 2022. He missed time last year due to a knee contusion, continuing the theme of knee problems that have plagued Eflin throughout his career — patellar-tendon surgeries on both knees in 2016, and then another patellar tendon procedure on his right knee in 2021. Philadelphia opted to use Eflin out of the bullpen after he returned from the IL last season, in order to get him on the mound in some capacity rather than spend more time fully building up his arm for a starter’s workload.
There hasn’t been any suggestion of an innings limit for Eflin, and though he has yet to pitch more than seven innings in a game this season, that is probably more due to Tampa Bay’s general approach to starter usage more than any specific intent to keep Eflin fresh. His career high for innings was 163 1/3 frames for the Phillies in 2019, so assuming good health from here on out, there is still quite a ways to go before Eflin or the Rays might have any concerns about his workload. With the Rays on pace for another postseason appearance, they certainly hope Eflin can pitch throughout October, and the potential returns of Rasmussen and Fleming will continue to impact the team’s pitching plans.