Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs
Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.
Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…
- The offseason for Cardinals‘ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
- While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.
Angels Prioritizing Offensive Upgrades
The Angels are not aiming to make a big splash in the pitching market this offseason, general manager Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. While the team will be “keeping an eye open” on available starters and relievers, Eppler’s focus is on upgrading an offense that finished 22nd in the majors in runs last season.
The Angels will “look for value, similar to what we did last year,” with regard to pitchers, Eppler said. The Eppler-led Halos only handed out two guaranteed contracts to pitchers last winter – $5.75MM to swingman Jesse Chavez and $1MM to reliever Andrew Bailey – neither of which worked out as hoped. On the other hand, Los Angeles struck gold when it claimed reliever Blake Parker off waivers and signed fellow relievers Yusmeiro Petit and Bud Norris to minor league contracts. Only one of those three, Parker, remains under club control heading into next season. Eppler isn’t sure whether the Angels will bring either Petit or Norris back, per Fletcher, who notes that they already have most of their 2018 bullpen in place with Parker, Cam Bedrosian, Jose Alvarez, Keynan Middleton, Noe Ramirez and Blake Wood on hand.
The Angels also have a variety of in-house rotation possibilities in Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, Nick Tropeano, Parker Bridwell and J.C. Ramirez, leading to Eppler’s confidence that a big-money addition isn’t necessary (notably, Eppler wasn’t willing to discuss a potential Shohei Ohtani pursuit, as he’s technically not a free agent yet). Although injuries marred the seasons of Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Ramirez and Tropeano (who didn’t pitch at all while recovering from 2016 Tommy John surgery), Fletcher relays that the only member of that group who hasn’t yet gotten medical clearance going into next year is Ramirez – whose 2017 ended in August on account of elbow soreness. The 29-year-old right-hander, who led all Angels holdovers in innings last season (142 1/3), will undergo an ultrasound on his elbow late this month, according to Fletcher.
While the Angels seem largely content with their pitchers, they could add at least one notable outsider to their group of position players, even after they managed to prevent left fielder Justin Upton from leaving in free agency. Along with Upton, center fielder Mike Trout, right fielder Kole Calhoun, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, designated hitter Albert Pujols and catcher Martin Maldonado figure to reprise their starting roles in 2018. That leaves the corner infield (either first or third, depending on where Luis Valbuena slots in) and second base ripe for upgrades.
The keystone looks like an especially big need, Fletcher observes, after Angels second basemen limped to a ghastly .207/.274/.318 batting line and a major league-worst 60 wRC+ last season. With Eppler looking for players who are adept at getting on base, previous trade target and current free agent Neil Walker (.362 OBP in 2017, .341 career) looks like someone who may pique the Angels’ interest, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk previously suggested when previewing their offseason in late October. And there are several possibilities LA could acquire via trade, including the Marlins’ Dee Gordon, whom it was interested in over the summer.
As for the corner infield, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda are at the top of the free agent class at first base (MLBTR projects the Angels to land Alonso). Alternatively, tthe Halos could hand the reins to Valbuena and C.J. Cron at first and and go for a third baseman, whether it’s Los Angeles native Mike Moustakas, Todd Frazier, Eduardo Nunez or Zack Cozart (if he’s willing to move off shortstop) in free agency or another player via trade.
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton: Talks Between Marlins, 4 Teams
The Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants and Phillies are early contenders to put together a trade for Marlins superstar Giancarlo Stanton, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter). There has been “preliminary communication” regarding the right fielder between each of those teams and the Marlins, according to Morosi, who adds that talks are likely to “intensify” at next week’s general managers meetings.
With the Marlins primed to slash payroll under new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Stanton stands out as their most obvious trade candidate. The 2017 major league home run king (59) and National League MVP finalist is owed either $295MM through 2028 or $77MM through 2020, depending on whether he exercises his opt-out clause. The amount of money left on the contract, the opt-out and Stanton’s full no-trade rights could combine to make a trade rather complicated. But the 27-year-old Stanton’s no-trade clause may not be a major hindrance, given that he is fed up with losing and would like to join a contender. The Marlins appear poised to embark on a lengthy rebuild, so it seems doubtful Stanton would stand in the way of a deal if he feels the acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful games into the fall – something he hasn’t done since bursting on the big league scene in 2010.
While the Marlins have never even posted an above-.500 season during Stanton’s eight-year career, the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have typically served as contenders during that span (though San Francisco’s coming off a major league-worst 68-win season). The Phillies, meanwhile, have finished toward the bottom of the NL East for five years running, but several of their young players showed progress in 2017, and the club figures to return to its high-spending ways when it’s officially ready to leave its own long rebuild behind. Stanton reportedly wasn’t willing to waive his NTC to go to Philadelphia as of late in the season, though, and it could also hurt the team’s cause that it shares a division with the Marlins, who would have to face the p.r. backlash of dealing the face of their franchise to a close rival.
As with the Phillies, there are reasons why a Stanton acquisition would and wouldn’t work for each of the other three suitors (and several other teams), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd deftly laid out on Thursday. Regardless of whether the Marlins ultimately send him to one of the four front-runners or another club, the Stanton sweepstakes will go down as one of the most fascinating sagas of the offseason.
Latest On Diamondbacks, J.D. Martinez
The Diamondbacks’ odds of re-signing free agent right fielder J.D. Martinez already looked low even before a report emerged Wednesday that he’s seeking a contract worth around $200MM in guarantees. The team’s chances of keeping the star slugger seemingly took another hit Friday when CEO Derrick Hall announced that its payroll won’t significantly climb in 2018.
“You’re not talking about $10 million,” Hall said of a potential spending increase (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). That’s not to say the Diamondbacks won’t increase their payroll at all, however. There could be wiggle room for them to add a few million in payroll as the offseason moves along and club gets a clearer picture of its anticipated revenue.
Arizona hasn’t opened a season above the $100MM mark since 2014, though it did close each of the past two years above that figure. Now, thanks largely to guaranteed money owed to five veterans (Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt, Jeff Mathis and Daniel Descalso) and arbitration projections for 14 other players, the Diamondbacks are already in the $120MM range for 2018 without having added any new players, per an estimate from Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource.
All signs are pointing toward J.D. Martinez’s exit via the open market, though Hall did say Friday that the Diamondbacks are “going to be aggressive for, really, any and all players that can help us,” adding that they’re “taking a strong look” at the 30-year-old (via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, suggested Wednesday that he expects the Diamondbacks to be serious contenders to sign his client. But Hall revealed on Friday that there have not been any discussions between the club and Boras since Martinez hired him as his new representative Nov. 1.
“(We had) some good conversations (before free agency began) and since then he’s sought new representation, so things have changed from those initial conversations,” Hall said. “But J.D. is such a great guy and we’re just glad to know that he enjoyed his time here because we enjoyed him being here, too.”
After Arizona acquired Martinez from Detroit in a mid-July trade, he batted an all-world .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs in 232 plate appearances to emerge as one of the most effective midseason pickups of all-time. That dazzling second-half output helped the Diamondbacks to a 93-69 finish and their first playoff berth since 2011, and Boras is well aware of it.
“High atop the MLB Empire rests the King Kong of Slug — a 50-point lead,” Boras said of the slugging percentage Martinez posted in Arizona (Twitter link via Jon Morosi of MLB Network). “That’s how dominant J.D. Kong is.”
NL Notes: Cobb, Cubs, Marlins, Mets, Reds
In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Friday, free agent right-hander Alex Cobb spoke highly of Cubs manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, as Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago details. Cobb spent the first seven years of his career in Tampa Bay, where he played under Maddon (2011-14) and Hickey (through 2017), which has led to speculation that the Cubs will pursue him in free agency. On the possibility of joining the Cubs and reuniting with Maddon and Hickey, Cobb said, “Obviously, if we move down the line and we’re able to have some discussions with them, I’d be very honored to be able to talk with them and hopefully come to a deal.”
Before Cobb’s eligible to sign with the Cubs or another team, he’ll have to reject the Rays’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, which he hinted he’ll do when he said, “You’re talking about, hopefully, a decision that’s going to impact the next five years of your life. Based on that comment, it seems Cobb is seeking a five-year deal (MLBTR is projecting he’ll land a four-year arrangement), though he insisted that he’ll prioritize team success over money. “I’ve been through both. I’ve been through losing seasons and I’ve been through winning seasons,” he stated. “And the amount of joy that winning brings to us – it can’t be replaced by a dollar figure.”
More from the National League:
- Joe Frisaro of MLB.com breaks down offseason trade possibilities for the Marlins, who are reportedly shopping right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, second baseman Dee Gordon and third baseman Martin Prado. To get a haul for Stanton, who’s owed $295MM through 2028 (or $77MM if he opts out after 2020), Frisaro suggests the Fish should pick up one-third of the tab over the next three years. Gordon’s contract is far less complicated – he’s due a manageable $37.9MM through 2020 – which should lead to widespread interest in him, Frisaro observes. The same isn’t true of Prado, who’s coming off a below-average, injury-plagued year and will rake in $28.5MM through 2019. The Marlins’ best hope to move Prado would be to package him with a real asset – center fielder Christian Yelich, for example – Frisaro opines. Otherwise, they’re going to be stuck with the 34-year-old heading into next season.
- While the Mets could be on the hunt for a second baseman, odds are they won’t be the team that acquires Gordon, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. The Mets have neither the prospect capital nor payroll flexibility necessary to put together a deal for Gordon, reasons DiComo, who estimates that the club has around $30MM to spend this offseason with needs at second or third base, the corner outfield/first base, the rotation and the bullpen.
- The Reds plan to use star third base prospect Nick Senzel all over the diamond in 2018, general manager Dick Williams tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “This is a guy that played shortstop in college [at Tennessee], played third base in college, played second base as an amateur,” Williams said. “We think he’s clearly athletic enough to go to left field or right field. He’s got the bat to do it.” The 22-year-old Senzel showed off his prowess at the plate in 2017, hitting a robust .321/.391/.514 in 507 plate appearances between Single-A and Double-A, and figures to open next season at the minors’ highest level.
AL Notes: Choo, Rangers, BoSox, M’s, Ichiro, Orioles
Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo is a “luxury” the Rangers can’t afford, opines the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant, who contends that the team should shop the 35-year-old in hopes of improving elsewhere. Choo has an onerous contract, though, as he’s owed $62MM through 2020, so the Rangers’ best hope might be flipping him for another team’s unappealing deal, Grant writes. With that in mind, Grant lists three right-handers signed through 2020 – the Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann ($74MM remaining on his pact), the Royals’ Ian Kennedy ($49MM) and the Reds’ Homer Bailey ($49MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2020) – as players the starter-needy Rangers could potentially acquire in exchange for Choo. Notably, Choo spent the 2013 campaign in Cincinnati and thrived, which helped pave the way for him to sign a seven-year, $130MM pact with the Rangers in the ensuing offseason.
More from the American League:
- Red Sox catcher prospect Daniel Flores passed away Wednesday over complications stemming from cancer treatment, but he was only diagnosed with the disease (testicular cancer) in late October, family friend Jose Salas Jr. told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “When we saw it was bad, we did CT scans, X-rays, and stuff, and it was way too late, it was already too late,” said Salas, who was also Flores’ trainer. “He was so strong that he wouldn’t feel pain. . . . There were no indications, nothing suspicious, no negligence, there was nothing. . . . I don’t know what to tell you.” Flores was playing in the Dominican Republic instructional league shortly before he received his diagnosis, which came after he complained of back pain, and teammate and pitching prospect Alex Scherff informed Speier that “you literally couldn’t have been able to see that he was in that condition at all. He completely dominates the game. He’s the best catcher I’ve ever seen, no doubt in my mind at all.” Speier’s piece, which further profiles Flores and includes more quotes from Salas and Scherff, is certainly worth checking out in full.
- The Mariners are “highly unlikely” to reunite with free agent outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, Greg Johns of MLB.com hears. While Ichiro established himself as a Mariners legend during his time with the club from 2001-12, bringing the 44-year-old back would go against the team’s plans to get younger, Johns notes. It’s also unclear how much the future Hall of Famer has left at this point, given that he slashed a paltry .255/.318/.332 in 215 plate appearances with the Marlins this past season. That subpar output led the Fish to decline Ichiro’s inexpensive team option ($2MM).
- Although Zach Britton, Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart remain on hand after seeing plenty of action in 2017, the Orioles are nonetheless on the lookout for left-handed relief help, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The top available free agents include Mike Minor, Jake McGee, ex-Oriole Brian Duensing and Tony Watson, though the club could instead opt for a low-profile addition on a minor league deal, Kubatko suggests.
AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Kintzler, White Sox
The results of this year’s Gold Glove Awards voting came in earlier this week, and in the American League it was Brian Dozier taking home his first career Gold Glove at second base. Dozier took home a standard $25K bonus for that distinction, but the more notable financial component of the award is that Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler did not take home the $1MM bonus he’d have received for capturing a second Gold Glove honor. Kinsler’s 2017 option vested based on plate appearances back in September, but his salary would’ve risen from $11MM to $12MM had he landed the extra hardware. The $1MM difference in his salary won’t have much of an impact on his overall trade stock, but it’s still of minor note for both the Tigers and interested parties as Detroit explores trade scenarios for its longtime second baseman this winter.
More from the AL Central…
- The Twins have already reached out to right-hander Brandon Kintzler about a possible reunion this winter, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Minnesota is one of a “handful” of teams to show early interest in the 33-year-old Kintzler, per Berardino, who also notes that the Nationals have interest in retaining the sinkerball specialist. Kintzler has turned in an ERA just over 3.00 in the past two seasons despite averaging scarcely better than five strikeouts per nine innings, thanks largely to his excellent control, lofty ground-ball rates and a dearth of hard contact allowed.
- Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times takes a look at the difficult decisions facing White Sox GM Rick Hahn and his staff this offseason as they determine what to do with Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia. Both are controlled through the 2019 season and are affordable for the Sox (who have extremely limited payroll commitments as they rebuild), but Van Schouwen notes that the team views 2020 as a more reasonable target date for a return to prominence in the AL Central. “Any player who isn’t controllable through the bulk of our window, we have to make an assessment,” Hahn tells Van Schouwen.
- Also of note, Van Schouwen writes that the Sox will likely field a payroll in the vicinity of $75MM next year. Including arbitration projections from MLBTR, the Sox are projected to pay roughly $50MM to a dozen players next season. They’ll need another 13 players at or near the league minimum to round out the roster, which would take them just north of $57MM. That’d leave around $18MM to add some reclamation projects and/or veteran stopgaps in the rotation or bullpen if the Sox find opportunities to their liking. A trade of Abreu (projected at $17.9MM) or Garcia ($6.7MM) would obviously alter their capacity for additions.
Nippon Ham Fighters Announce They Will Allow Shohei Ohtani To Move To Majors
2:53pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that, unsurprisingly, the Fighters will set the posting fee for Ohtani at the $20MM maximum. However, while MLB will sign off on the deal, Heyman notes that the Players Association still has some issues to work through before it will also sign off. Among their concerns, per Heyman, is the fact that the Fighters will recoup $20MM for Ohtani while the player himself stands to be paid only a mere fraction of that amount.
Heyman doesn’t suggest that the Union’s concerns will necessarily jeopardize Ohtani’s ability to make the jump to the Majors or that they could lead to a significant alteration in the current structure of the posting system. It’s unclear when the MLBPA will ultimately sign off, but it seems that their trepidation could delay the process to some extent.
7:13am: The Nippon Ham Fighters announced that they will allow star pitcher/slugger Shohei Ohtani* to come to the majors via the posting system, as the Japan Times was among the outlets to report.
That does not quite make things official, as Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball continue to try to sort out the rules that will govern the move. The effort had come into some notable difficulties, though Ohtani’s decision to hire a MLB Player’s Association-certified agent was expected to . And it seems the two leagues, at least, have reached agreement on a framework that could help facilitate Ohtani’s move — so long as his representatives, the MLBPA, and the Fighters are all on board.
At a minimum, today’s news seemingly formalizes the Fighters’ commitment to allowing Ohtani to depart. “Everyone in our ballclub accepts his thoughts,” said Fighters skipper Hideki Kuriyama. That also figures to ratchet up the expectations and the pressures on all other interested parties, helping to maintain momentum toward a finalization of talks — which will only represent the beginning of what could be a fascinating process.
[Related: Scouting Shohei Ohtani]
None of the talks will address Ohtani’s own earning capacity, which will be quite slight — at least on his way into the league. That’s the major reason that he promises to be the most widely pursued player ever to hit the open market. With only a few clubs even able to offer him more than $1MM in a bonus, the decision will surely come down to other factors, the precise nature of which — hitting opportunities? geography? comfort? promotional opportunities? promises of a future extension? — remain to be learned.
*Astute readers will note that MLBTR has now adopted a new spelling. Previously, for a variety of reasons, we utilized the anglicization “Otani.” We have now confirmed, however, that the spelling “Ohtani” is the formal spelling likely to be utilized in his potential transition to the majors.
Braves Finalize Coaching Staff; Walt Weiss Named Bench Coach
The Braves announced a slew of changes to their coaching staff on Friday, led by the hiring of former Rockies manager Walt Weiss as the club’s new bench coach. Atlanta has also hired Eric Young Sr. as its new first base coach/outfield instructor and Sal Fasano as its new catching coach. Former bench coach Terry Pendleton and first base coach Eddie Perez have been offered new positions within the organization, according to the team’s release.
Weiss, 53, managed the Rockies from 2013-16 before Bud Black took over the club for the 2017 season. In his four years at the helm of the Rockies, the team posted an unsightly 283-365 record, though Weiss managed some clubs that had exceptionally thin pitching staffs. Weiss, the 1988 AL Rookie of the Year with the Athletics, spent the final three seasons of a 14-year Major League career with the Braves. He’s yet to serve as a coach in the Majors, but he’ll bring prior managerial experience and more than a half decade as a special adviser in the Rockies’ front office to his new post with the Braves.
Young, 50, spent parts of 15 seasons playing in the Majors and has spent five prior seasons as a first base coach with the D-backs and Rockies (in addition to his on-air work with ESPN’s Baseball Tonight). Young swiped 465 bases in his career and averaged 47 steals per season from 1995-2000 and has previously worked as a baserunning instructor with the Astros.
The 46-year-old Fasano has worked in a variety of capacities in the Blue Jays organization, serving as a minor league manager as well as a minor league pitching coordinator and a minor league catching coordinator. He spent parts of 11 seasons as a Major League catcher — mostly as a backup — and long carried a reputation as a quality defender and receiver behind the dish.
Per the Braves, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, assistant hitting coach Jose Castro, third base coach Ron Washington, pitching coach Chuck Hernandez and bullpen coach Marty Reed will all return to the organization in 2018.
Phillies Hire John Mallee As Hitting Coach, Add Dusty Wathan To MLB Staff
The Phillies have announced that John Mallee will serve as the organization’s new hitting coach. He is one of several coaches that are now on board as the team begins filling out the staff of new manager Gabe Kapler.
According to the team, Dusty Wathan will join on as third base coach after he made a strong run at the managerial post. He was already in the organization and under contract as the manager at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Assistant pitching coach Rick Kranitz will also remain as a coach, though his precise role was not announced. Both of those moves were reported yesterday by MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki.
Mallee, a former Phillies minor-leaguer in his playing days, previously served as the hitting coach for the Astros and, most recently, the Cubs. The carousel has been as dizzying as ever: he’s taking over for Matt Stairs (who left to take the top batting instructor job with the Padres) after being replaced in Chicago by former Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis.