MLBTR Poll: Shortstop Trade Candidates
It’s early in the offseason, but three star shortstops have already been mentioned as trade candidates. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor, the Rockies’ Trevor Story and the Astros’ Carlos Correa each seem to have at least a small chance of ending up on the move this winter. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to acquire?
There isn’t a more accomplished member of the trio than Lindor, a 27-year-old who has already earned four All-Star nods and a pair of Gold Glove Awards since his career began in 2015. If you’re looking for flaws, though, the switch-hitting Lindor isn’t coming off a stellar year at the plate, as he slashed .258/.335/.415 (good for a league-average 100 wRC+) with eight home runs and six stolen bases in 266 trips. He also comes with potentially the biggest price tag of the three players, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary between $17.5MM and $21MM for his final year of team control.
Story, 28, had a better year than Lindor and Correa in 2019, slashing .289/.355/.519 (117 wRC+) with 11 homers and 15 steals across 259 plate appearances. It was the third straight exemplary season for Story, a two-time All-Star who’s also a year from free agency. Story’s locked in for a $17.5MM salary next season after signing a two-year, $27.5MM extension before 2020.
Correa is also slated to be part of next winter’s standout class of free-agent shortstops. In the meantime, he’ll rake in the lowest salary (between $8MM and $10.2MM) next year. The 26-year-old’s name hit the rumor mill earlier this week, though the Astros reportedly aren’t in active negotiations to trade him. If they were, they wouldn’t be aiming to sell high on Correa, who was uncharacteristically pedestrian at the plate in 2020. Correa wound up with a line of .264/.326/.383 (97 wRC+) and five HRs in 221 PA. The good news is that he stayed healthy after three consecutive injury-limited, albeit more productive, seasons.
All three of these well-known shortstops are nearing free agency, so any of them could be involved in trades before the 2021 campaign. Considering their production and their salaries, which one would you want?
(Poll link for app users)
Which shortstop would you want in a trade?
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Lindor 65% (11,320)
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Story 24% (4,183)
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Correa 11% (1,955)
Total votes: 17,458
Latest On Astros, LeMahieu, Correa
12:43PM: In an update to his original story, Rosenthal writes that the Astros are “not engaged in any active conversations on Correa.” The team has, however, been in touch with LeMahieu.
11:39AM: The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa‘s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.
The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency. Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.
Beyond Correa’s contract, naturally, the Astros face an entirely new set of issues that weren’t present when they thought about moving Correa last winter, ranging from the sign-stealing scandal that ousted Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch, revenue losses caused by the pandemic, to Justin Verlander being lost to Tommy John surgery for the 2021 season. Plus, the Astros also face the loss of two other notable position players, as George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents.
Moving Correa on top of losing both Springer and Brantley could almost make 2021 into something of a mini-rebuild type of season for Houston, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Astros are looking to take much of a step backwards. For instance, the Astros have had talks with Brantley and (as a replacement for Springer in center field) Jackie Bradley Jr.
However, Rosenthal reports that the Astros aren’t likely to pursue any of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or DJ LeMahieu, as since those players rejected qualifying offers, Houston would have to give up draft picks in order to sign them. This isn’t an appetizing thought for an organization that already lost multiple picks as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal. Re-signing their own free agent in Springer (who also turned down a QO) wouldn’t cost the Astros any picks, of course, though Houston might prefer to restock their draft coffers with the compensatory pick received if Springer signed elsewhere.
Trading Correa would also theoretically net a good return for the Astros, though a lot of factors will impact his market. Teams might not be keen on paying a premium for just one year of Correa’s services, and there are several other options available to shortstop-needy teams in both free agency (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Ha-Seong Kim) and in trades (Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez).
Correa is coming off a season that saw him hit only .264/.326/.383 over 221 plate appearances in the regular season, but he caught fire during Houston’s postseason run, with a whopping 1.221 OPS over 55 PA. Correa is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is projected to earn $8.8MM under the “37 percent” calculation method of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Gold Glove Nominees Announced
The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.
The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:
AL Pitcher
- Griffin Canning (LAA)
- Kenta Maeda (MIN)
- Zach Plesac (CLE)
NL Pitcher
- Max Fried (ATL)
- Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
- Alec Mills (CHC)
AL Catcher
- Yasmani Grandal (CHW)
- James McCann (CHW)
- Roberto Perez (CLE)
NL Catcher
- Tucker Barnhart (CIN)
- Willson Contreras (CHC)
- Jacob Stallings (PIT)
AL First Base
- Yuli Gurriel (HOU)
- Matt Olson (OAK)
- Evan White (SEA)
NL First Base
- Brandon Belt (SF)
- Paul Goldschmidt (STL)
- Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
AL Second Base
- Cesar Hernandez (CLE)
- Danny Mendick (CHW)
- Jonathan Schoop (DET)
- Nicky Lopez (KC)
NL Second Base
- Adam Frazier (PIT)
- Nico Hoerner (CHC)
- Kolten Wong (STL)
AL Third Base
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX)
- Yoan Moncada (CHW)
- Gio Urshela (NYY)
NL Third Base
- Brian Anderson (MIA)
- Nolan Arenado (COL)
- Manny Machado (SD)
AL Shortstop
- Carlos Correa (HOU)
- J.P. Crawford (SEA)
- Niko Goodrum (DET)
NL Shortstop
- Javier Baez (CHC)
- Miguel Rojas (MIA)
- Dansby Swanson (ATL)
AL Left Field
- Alex Gordon (KC)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR)
- Kyle Tucker (HOU)
NL Left Field
- Shogo Akiyama (CIN)
- David Peralta (ARI)
- Tyler O’Neill (STL)
AL Centerfield
- Byron Buxton (MIN)
- Ramon Laureano (OAK)
- Luis Robert (CHW)
NL Centerfield
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
- Cody Bellinger (LAD)
- Trent Grisham (SD)
AL Right Field
- Clint Frazier (NYY)
- Joey Gallo (TEX)
- Anthony Santander (BAL)
NL Right Field
- Mookie Betts (LAD)
- Charlie Blackmon (COL)
- Jason Heyward (CHC)
Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.
There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).
There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.
Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.
The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.
Carlos Correa Defends Jose Altuve’s MVP, Astros’ 2017 Title
As the Astros have bungled their apologies for the sign-stealing scandal that has dominated this offseason, Carlos Correa has perhaps been the organization’s most forthright member. In response to the most recent backlash around the game, Correa came out with a passionate defense of the organization- and teammate José Altuve– in an interview with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.
“José Altuve was the one guy that didn’t use the trash can,” Correa told Rosenthal. “The few times that the trash can was banged was without his consent, and he would go inside the clubhouse and inside the dugout to whoever was banging the trash can and he would get (upset). He would get mad. He would say, ‘I don’t want this. I can’t hit like this. Don’t you do that to me.’ He played the game clean.”
“The reason José Altuve apologized to the media was for being part of the team and for not stopping it,” Correa continued. “But he’s not apologizing for using the trash can. He’s not apologizing for cheating because he did not cheat … José Altuve earned that MVP, and he’s been showing that for years.”
Correa’s defense of Altuve came in response to Cody Bellinger, who sounded off on the scandal Friday. Bellinger argued the Astros “stole” the 2017 World Series from the Dodgers and that Altuve “stole an MVP from (Aaron) Judge.” Bellinger also referenced the unsubstantiated rumors that Astros’ hitters wore electronic buzzers the last few years, made famous by Altuve’s refusal to take off his shirt after his 2019 ALCS-clinching home run off Aroldis Chapman. The Astros have categorically denied using buzzers, and Correa doubled down on that yesterday.
“2019, nobody wore buzzers. That’s a lie,” Correa told Rosenthal. He continued, “(Altuve) hit that home run off Chapman fair and square. He was not wearing buzzers. That’s a story that a fake account on Twitter broke, and then people just got on that wagon and started talking about the buzzers. Like, no. Nobody thought about buzzers. Nobody was using buzzers.”
Instead, Correa gave a pair of explanations to Rosenthal for Altuve’s unwillingness to have his shirt ripped. First, he says, Altuve’s wife had previously told him not to remove his shirt on the field. Somewhat comically, Correa added that Altuve was embarrassed about a “horrible” unfinished collarbone tattoo he wished to keep hidden from public view.
To be clear, Correa did not shy away from all criticism related to the scandal. He admitted to Rosenthal that hitters who used the trash can system in 2017 gained an improper, unfair advantage over opposing pitchers. (In that respect, he disagreed with Astros’ owner Jim Crane, whom Correa says “doesn’t know what kind of advantage we have…because, from afar, it looks hard“). Rather, his defense of the organization’s legacy lies in their postseason success.
Correa argued that the club often struggled to decode signs from the center field camera during the postseason due to opposing teams’ improved countervailing efforts, citing numerous key hits he claims were unsupported by sign stealing. That not every hit was sign stealing-aided, even if true, isn’t enough to say definitively that the Astros would or wouldn’t have won the 2017 World Series without the scheme, though.
Additionally, Correa pointed to the commissioner’s office finding no evidence the club continued the sign stealing efforts in 2019. Last year’s AL pennant, the shortstop argued, was “clean baseball all around.” Of course, some fans and opposing players will roll their eyes at that assertion; the organization has hardly earned the benefit of the doubt on this issue.
Yet Correa’s most passionate defense seemed to be of Altuve, in particular. Clearing his double play partner’s name, it seems, was the main impetus for Correa’s interview with Rosenthal, which is worth reading in full.
For what it’s worth, signstealingscandal.com, which attempted to log every trash can bang during Astros’ 2017 home games, recorded bangs on just 2.8% of pitches (24 bangs on 866 pitches) thrown to Altuve, never more than two in any particular game. These, again, were against Altuve’s wishes, according to Correa. That’s clearly not definitive proof Altuve didn’t participate in the scandal (and as both Correa and Altuve admitted, he deserves some blame for doing little to stop it). Nevertheless, it’s at least partially supportive of Altuve’s legacy and the legitimacy of his 2017 MVP.
Astros Players Deny Using Buzzers
Thursday looks like yet another tough day for the Astros in an offseason packed with them. The club sent a few representatives out to discuss its sign-stealing scandal that many believe has tarnished its laundry list of accomplishments from recent years. The news conference wasn’t well-received, as multiple players and owner Jim Crane only offered perfunctory apologies for the team’s wrongdoing. What’s more, Crane called on manager Dusty Baker to ask for forgiveness on the club’s behalf. The problem? Baker had nothing to do with the Astros’ misdeeds. He only just joined the Astros as their skipper Jan. 29, a couple weeks after the team bid adieu to suspended predecessor A.J. Hinch.
Among their possible crimes, Astros hitters may have worn electronic buzzers under their jerseys last season in order to help identify which pitches were coming. Major League Baseball investigated the matter, but it didn’t find any evidence supporting those accusations. Questions about it have persisted, though. Crane said Thursday, “I truly believe there were no buzzers ever.” Prominent members of the roster agree, for what it’s worth, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays.
Second baseman Jose Altuve‘s walk-off home run against the Yankees in Game 6 of last year’s American League Championship Series sent the Astros to the World Series. Altuve wouldn’t let his teammates rip off his jersey as he approached home plate to celebrate, but he quickly went into the locker room to change his shirt after that. Some may regard that as damning evidence that he was wearing a device at the time, though the former AL MVP vehemently denied those claims Thursday.
“It was a fake Twitter account that started everything,” Altuve said. “It makes me upset that a fake Twitter account had that much credibility. Like I said, I feel bad for 2017 but I can say something that I didn’t do was the buzzer thing. No one on this team wore a buzzer.”
The “fake Twitter account,” now deactivated, belonged to someone claiming to be the niece of former Astro Carlos Beltran – one of the central figures in the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scheme. The Beltran family denied that was the case when the story came out last month, however.
Along with Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa, outfielders George Springer and Josh Reddick, and ace Justin Verlander all shot down the idea that the team utilized buzzers.
“That’s a lie. Nobody wore buzzers. Nobody wore devices,” insisted Correa, who added the “story should be killed already.”
Both Springer and Reddick said that was “absolutely not” the case, while Reddick offered, “no, not to my knowledge.”
Considering the events of the past few weeks, you’d be within your rights to have a hard time believing what the Astros are saying. But even if the team didn’t wear buzzers, it’s obvious at this point there were other violations in recent years. Hence, the mess the Astros find themselves in now.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa
The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).
“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”
Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson‘s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.
Here are more rumblings from around the game…
- A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
- At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
- Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
Astros Notes: Correa, Mets, Toro, Barnes, Dodgers
Carlos Correa‘s name came up in trade speculation on Tuesday, leading the shortstop to take time out of his honeymoon to call Jeff Luhnow, the Astros general manager told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). Luhnow told the former Rookie Of The Year to not worry about the reports, and he further dismissed the idea of any major trades on Wednesday, telling media members that he would be “surprised if we moved any of our core players.” Some type of creative salary management seems inevitable, however, if the Astros are to make roster upgrades while avoiding at least the top level ($248MM+) of luxury tax punishment level. Houston already has a projected tax number of just over $231MM, as per Roster Resource, so even getting under the secondary punishment threshold of $228MM will take work. Since this would mark Houston’s first time over the luxury tax barrier, they would at least face only a first-timer charge, though topping the $248MM mark would also come with a ten-slot drop in their 2021 draft order.
More from the American League champions…
- The Mets were one team that at least checked in about Correa, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino tweets, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo described these conversations as “more fantasy baseball” than a truly serious discussion. New York would make an intriguing suitor for Correa since the Mets have a former top-tier prospect of their own at shortstop in Amed Rosario, and it’s fair to wonder whether Rosario would have been a logical trade chip to head Houston’s way in any Correa deal.
- Luhnow also told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that he had been receiving “a number of inquiries” about Abraham Toro. MLB Pipeline ranks Toro as the Astros’ fifth-best prospect, after the 22-year-old hit .273/.365/.461 with 48 homers over 1544 career minor league PA. This led to Toro making his Major League debut last season, a 25-game/89-PA stint highlighted by his ninth-inning, two-run homer that provided the only offense Justin Verlander needed in his September 1st no-hitter against the Blue Jays. Toro has mostly played third base, though he has some experience at first and second base as well, making him even more attractive to interested teams. This multi-position ability could position Toro as Yuli Gurriel‘s heir apparent since Gurriel is a free agent after 2020, or the Astros’ payroll crunch could potentially get them to consider including Toro along with a hefty contract to clear some space on the books.
- The Astros have asked the Dodgers about catcher Austin Barnes, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports (via Twitter), as Houston likes Barnes’ pitch-framing ability. It wasn’t long ago that Barnes seemed to be in line to be the Dodgers’ catcher of the future, though after hitting only .204/.311/.316 over 480 plate appearances in 2018-19, Barnes has firmly fallen behind Will Smith on the depth chart. Plus, Los Angeles has Keibert Ruiz on the way up as another blue chip catching prospect, making Barnes all the more potentially expendable. StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus do indeed give Barnes high grades for his framing, with BP also grading his blocking ability as generally above average. Barnes is signed for $1.1MM in 2020 and is arbitration-controlled through 2022, though he isn’t a youngster, as he turns 30 at the end of December.
Astros Have Reportedly Considered Carlos Correa Trade
Speaking with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Tuesday, Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow painted a somewhat bleak picture in regards to the team’s payroll. In Luhnow’s estimation, the Astros are going to have to clear out money if they want to acquire a top-end starting pitcher this offseason. With that in mind, it looks more likely than ever that they’ll be saying goodbye to the No. 1 player on the market, right-hander Gerrit Cole, who teamed with Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke to comprise an incredibly formidable trio in 2019.
Back in early October, before the Astros began what proved to be an American League-winning run through the playoffs, owner Jim Crane indicated he’d like to avoid going past the $208MM luxury tax in 2020. However, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, their luxury-tax payroll for next season is already over $231MM. As a result, the Astros could be more likely to shave payroll than make any major additions this winter.
The Astros would cut some money by trading star shortstop Carlos Correa, who’s due to earn an estimated $7.4MM via arbitration next year. Dealing the 25-year-old sounds like crazy talk, especially when you’re a championship-level team like Houston, but it’s not off the table. The club has “entertained” the possibility, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). As of now, though, no deal appears imminent.
With the top free-agent shortstop, Didi Gregorius, now off the board, it stands to reason any shortstop-needy club would (or has) called the Astros in regards to Correa. In trading Correa, though, the Astros would be selling low after an injury-limited year and leaving themselves with questions at short (of course, they did do just fine without him for a large portion of 2019). For now, Correa’s one of several key Astros who’s due to reach free agency over the next couple years, which could hasten either a trade or an extension. Correa, Verlander and Greinke are under control through 2021, while first baseman Yuli Gurriel and outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley are slated to hit the open market after next season.
Latest On Carlos Correa
TODAY: Correa told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that he “woke up today feeling really good….It gave me a lot of confidence moving forward.” An official decision on his ALDS status won’t be known until he works out with the team next week, but “the way I woke up today, if the playoff started tomorrow, I’d probably be in the lineup,” Correa said.
YESTERDAY: The Astros shut down shortstop Carlos Correa for the rest of the regular season because of a back issue on Thursday. The hope then was that Correa would return for the start of the playoffs next week. That could still happen, but it doesn’t sound like a certainty at this point. Whether Correa will be ready for the American League Division Series will depend on how his back responds to workouts next week, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes.
“We’re going to have to see him do a lot of stuff between now and next Friday,” said general manager Jeff Luhnow, who noted it’s “hard to tell” if Correa’s back problems have worsened in the past week. Regardless, if the Astros aren’t confident in Correa’s health when the ALDS rolls around, they’ll “most likely” leave him off their roster, according to Luhnow.
The spot currently ticketed for Correa may end up going to rookie third baseman Abraham Toro, per Rome. And third baseman/AL MVP candidate Alex Bregman would perhaps handle shortstop, something he has had to do far more often than the Astros were hoping for this season. Correa’s regular season ended with just 75 games played on account of multiple injuries. The 25-year-old sat out from May 27 until July 26 with a fractured rib and then missed Aug. 20-Sept. 15 thanks to his back, which still won’t seem to heal.
The fact that the Astros will ultimately go without Correa 87 times during the regular season and possibly still finish with the majors’ best record is a testament to the overall strength of their roster. So, even if Correa’s not available come playoff time, Houston still figures to enter the proceedings with as good a chance as anyone to take home a World Series title. Obviously, though, a healthy Correa would only enhance the Astros’ odds of winning their second championship since 2017.
