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Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers Rumors: Kershaw, Martinez, Ohtani

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The Dodgers opted not to issue a qualifying offer to designated hitter J.D. Martinez and aren’t sure exactly when fellow free agent Clayton Kershaw will be cleared to pitch next season on the heels of shoulder surgery, but there’s some interest in keeping both players around for the 2024 campaign. President of baseball ops Andrew Friedman said at this week’s GM Meetings that his group is hopeful Kershaw continues pitching and spends the remainder of his career in a Dodgers uniform (via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times).

The lack of a qualifying offer for Martinez might’ve been a modest surprise at first glance, given his 33 home runs and .271/.321/.572 batting line on the season. A one-year deal at $20.325MM certainly seems justified for that level of production.

However, as we suggested in our Top 50 Free Agent list, the Dodgers surely didn’t want to risk the possibility of Martinez accepting a QO, given their widely expected pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. The former AL MVP will be limited to DH duties next year, so Martinez accepting would’ve been an unnecessary roadblock in those efforts. As a reminder, players that accept a QO are considered free agent signings and thus cannot be traded without their consent prior to June 15 of the following season; in other words, there was no straightforward scenario where Martinez accepted a QO and could then just be flipped elsewhere should the Dodgers emerge victorious in the Ohtani bidding.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Ohtani’s presence on the market indeed influenced the Martinez QO decision, as one would logically expect. Friedman himself alluded to the very same yesterday, telling Harris that an eventual Martinez reunion is a possibility, but the Dodgers aren’t presently sure “which direction we’re going to go with our position player group” (a very likely nod to the uncertainty surrounding Ohtani’s still-nascent market).

While it’s certainly possible that Martinez might prefer to see where Ohtani lands before accepting an offer himself, that’s far from a given. There’s some logic to waiting to ensure that the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Rangers and other expected Ohtani suitors can join the bidding for Martinez’s services. But at the same time, if a team that knows it won’t be signing Ohtani swoops in with a strong offer for Martinez early in the offseason, he could also move quickly rather than run the risk of overplaying his hand. Earlier free agent deals tend to be stronger than those bartered late in the offseason, after all.

Turning to Kershaw, there’s still no indication as to when he might make a decision on his future. Friedman (via Harris) indicated that the Dodgers are “giving him the time and space to make the best decision” for his family. The Dodgers were similarly patient regarding Kershaw two offseasons ago, when he remained unsigned through the 99-day MLB lockout and took until March 13 to put pen to paper on a new deal. Last winter, when Kershaw was once again a free agent, things came together far more quickly; the two parties agreed to terms on a deal for the 2023 season as early as November 11.

Friedman said last month that the ball is squarely in Kershaw’s court, as the pitcher already knows the team’s feelings and knows the Dodgers are hopeful he’ll return. Those comments came prior to Kershaw’s surgery. The pitcher has since said he’s hopeful of returning to the mound sometime next summer.

Without Kershaw in the fold, the Los Angeles rotation mix currently includes Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone and Ryan Yarbrough. Righty Dustin May will miss the beginning of the 2024 campaign after undergoing flexor tendon surgery and a Tommy John revision in early July. Fellow right-hander Tony Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in late August and could miss the entire ’24 campaign. The Dodgers figure to be in the market for multiple arms over the course of the offseason, whether that includes Kershaw or not.

Clayton Kershaw Undergoes Shoulder Surgery; Hoping For Summer Return

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Left-hander Clayton Kershaw announced on Instagram that he underwent a surgical procedure this morning to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. He says that he is “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.”

Kershaw, 35, had a strange campaign in 2023. He had made 16 starts through the end of June with typically strong results, holding an ERA of 2.55 at that time. He was placed on the injured list in early July due to some shoulder soreness. It didn’t seem especially concerning at that time, with the hope seeming to be that the All-Star break would allow him to miss just one or two turns through the rotation.

However, a couple of weeks later, there seemed to be some confusion around the issue. He underwent an MRI in the middle of July and wasn’t activated from the IL, although he wasn’t in any pain. “I feel completely fine. The shoulder feels good,” Kershaw said at the time. “I’ve just been told it has to rest. It’s a weird deal. I’ve never had anything like it, to the point where, like I’m gonna go play catch today and throw it as hard as I can, and they say it needs to rest. It’s just weird, honestly. I don’t know what to make of it. But I’m just gonna have to listen to [doctors].”

He was eventually activated in early August, with more confusion to come. His results continued to be strong, as he posted an ERA of 2.23 in his final eight starts of the year. But he was clearly working with diminished stuff. While he averaged above 91 MPH on his fastball prior to that IL stint, it was down to 90.2 MPH in August and 88.6 MPH in September. His slider also lost a few ticks as the season wore on. Although he was able to continue pitching well in the regular season, the wheels finally came off in the playoffs. Kershaw was lit up in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks, allowing six earned runs while only recording one out.

It seems Kershaw finally got some answers from the medical community and went under the knife today. While solving the mystery around his ailment provides some clarity, it seems there’s plenty of uncertainty ahead. This appears to be the first time the phrase “gleno-humeral” has appeared on the pages of MLBTR, suggesting this isn’t a particularly common procedure to be working back from. Kershaw has also had plenty of other ailments in the recent parts of his career. His 131 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 were the most he’s logged since 2019, spending time on the IL in recent years due to back stiffness, left elbow inflammation, left forearm discomfort, right SI joint inflammation, low back pain and the recent shoulder soreness.

Even without the health issues, Kershaw has gone into the past two offseasons with an uncertain path forward. It was seen by many that he was deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. In both cases, he returned to the Dodgers on a one-year deal, with a $17MM salary in 2022 and $20MM this past year. Last month, he again expressed uncertainty about his future going into free agency once more.

The Dodgers opted against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer in those two years, though he would have deserved one based on his performance. As a sign of respect to the long-tenured player, they afforded him the freedom to take his time making a decision, whereas issuing a QO would have required Kershaw accept or decline within a few days of receiving it. They were presumably planning the same course of action this winter but this surgery would seemingly take the QO off the table even if they were considering it.

More information will likely trickle out over the winter, but the fact that Kershaw is “hopeful” of returning to play in the summer suggests that it’s not a guarantee. Perhaps he will spend some time rehabbing and trying to get healthy before signing a new contract, though that’s entirely speculative.

For the Dodgers, they likely have to proceed under the assumption that they can’t count on Kershaw, though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman previously stated they would welcome him back. Beyond the fact that he’s not officially on the team anymore, it’s not certain he will be able to rejoin them even if he were willing to do so. In addition to Kershaw, Julio Urías and Lance Lynn are now free agents, with the club declining an option on the latter today. Tony Gonsolin could miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, while Dustin May’s flexor tendon surgery should keep him out for at least the first half of 2024.

That leaves the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from his own TJS, in the top spot. He is followed by guys with very limited experience, such as Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough, though he might wind up non-tendered, the same way the Rays cut him loose a year ago.

Though the Kershaw news may complicate things, the Dodgers do have plenty of money to work with and figure to be active in all levels of free agency. The top of the market features names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, though there are plenty of other intriguing names from Sonny Gray to Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty and many more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

NL West Notes: Christenson, Giants, Padres, Chapman, Soto, Kershaw

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Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco.  Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants.  Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.

It isn’t known what coaching roles Christenson and Williams might take with the Giants, though most of the (very large) staff was expected to stay in place.  Bench coach Kai Correa is under contract for next season, though Baggarly writes that the Giants are likely to give him permission to interview with other teams, so this could provide an opening for Christenson to just assume the bench coach job.  Mark Hallberg is the third base coach, and since the team thought highly enough of Hallberg to interview him for the manager’s job, the Giants could probably try to find space for both Hallberg and Williams on the staff.

More from around the NL West…

  • Also from Baggarly’s piece, he suggests that Matt Chapman could be a good fit as a free agent target for the Giants this winter.  Of course, Chapman played under Melvin for years with the A’s, and beyond that recruiting link, adding Chapman would solidify a proper everyday player within a San Francisco lineup that has perhaps suffered for having too many platoon players and moving parts in recent years.  Chapman’s stellar glove would instantly upgrade the Giants’ struggling defense, and put less fielding pressure on Marco Luciano (possibly the next regular shortstop in the Bay).  J.D. Davis and possibly Casey Schmitt would then become trade chips for San Francisco if Chapman was installed at the hot corner.
  • With the Cubs and Yankees both already rumored to be eyeing Juan Soto this offseason, the trade speculation about the Padres star isn’t likely to end until he is either extended by San Diego, or until a trade actually happens.  Of course, it isn’t yet clear if the Padres are willing to move Soto at all this winter, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner hears from a league source that if Soto is dealt, it might not happen until closer to the trade deadline.  Dealing Soto that late would naturally reduce the trade package San Diego would receive in return, yet for a Padres team desperate to contend in 2024, they might first want to see if they can get on track with Soto in the lineup before considering a deal.
  • Clayton Kershaw has one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers in each of the last two offseasons, and it has been widely known that Kershaw was choosing between only retirement, returning to Los Angeles, or possibly signing with his hometown Rangers.  While Kershaw opted to keep playing in L.A. on both occasions, Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Texas’ breakout success now makes it a tougher decision for Kershaw, as the Rangers have now shown that their willingness to spend can translate to championship contention.

Andrew Friedman On Roberts, Kershaw, Offseason Plans

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Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman met with the media (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) on Tuesday afternoon, alongside GM Brandon Gomes. The two executives discussed the disappointing conclusion to another Dodgers season, potential changes to the major league coaching staff, and the team’s offseason plans.

Speaking on his ballclub’s unceremonious exit from the playoffs, Friedman could not deny that the words “organizational failure” ring true once again (he used the same phrase last season). Putting it bluntly, he said, “Our goal was to win 11 games in October, and we didn’t win one.” Indeed, Diamondbacks hitters trounced the Dodgers pitching staff in Game 1 of the NLDS, and L.A.’s own powerful offense rarely came through. Notably, Friedman also used the term “organizational failure” to avoid blaming any specific people or groups of people for his team’s poor performance. “Organizational failure means it’s on all of us,” he explained.

On that note, Friedman left no doubt that manager Dave Roberts and his entire coaching staff would be back in 2024, confirming that there won’t be any changes in the clubhouse. “I think [Dave Roberts] and our coaching staff did an incredible job this year,” he said, “And none of us did an incredible job in those three games versus Arizona.”

Unsurprisingly, Friedman says his top priority this offseason will be starting pitching. That means assessing internal options as well as considering potential trades and free agent signings. Dodgers’ starters struggled in 2023, posting an uncharacteristic 4.57 ERA and 4.37 SIERA. Things became especially bleak toward the end of the year; ten different pitchers started a game for the Dodgers in September, combining for a 4.87 ERA. The team had no shortage of depth, but too few reliable options.

Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías will be free agents after the season, as will Lance Lynn – presuming the Dodgers decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout. On top of that, Tony Gonsolin will be out for most, if not all, of the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dustin May’s status for next season is also up in the air, after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in July.

That leaves Bobby Miller, who just completed his rookie season, and Walker Buehler, who hasn’t pitched since June 2022, as the only healthy, established starters remaining in the Dodgers rotation. The team has several young starting pitchers on the roster, including Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone, but none with more than 100 innings of big league experience. Friedman expressed confidence in Miller and Buehler during his press conference, but he understands the need to augment the rotation.

As for Kershaw, Friedman made it clear that the Dodgers are “absolutely” interested in bringing the superstar pitcher back for another season. However, the ten-time All-Star hasn’t yet told the team if he plans to return. “I think he and [his wife] Ellen are going to take some time right now and assess,” the team president said (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). “The ball’s squarely in their court.”

In addition to starting pitching, Friedman will also look to address position player needs during the offseason. The Dodgers had an excellent offense in 2023, finishing second in baseball in OPS and runs scored. That said, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, utility man Enrique Hernández, and outfielders Jason Heyward and David Peralta will all be free agents after the conclusion of the World Series. The team will need to replace Martinez and Heyward’s production in particular. In addition, the Dodgers might look to add a new infielder so Mookie Betts can return to a regular role in right field.

Gomes didn’t speak as much as his boss, but he did confirm a report that he declined to interview for the GM opening in Boston. “I’m very flattered and appreciate the interest,” he said (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “But I love it here, and my family loves it here. I’m passionate about this organization and solely focused on winning multiple championships here.”

Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

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The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Candelario, Slater, Alvarez

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The Dodgers have decided to push the next start of veteran ace Clayton Kershaw to Friday, as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Kershaw was originally slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Padres. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that the decision to move Kershaw’s start wasn’t prompted by a physical issue, saying that the main goal in pushing his start back is lining up the rotation for the postseason.

As Plunkett notes, however, Kershaw’s workload has been carefully monitored by the Dodgers ever since he returned from a six-week sojourn on the injured list due to shoulder issues. Kershaw has not pitched beyond the fifth inning since returning and has eclipsed 80 pitches in a start just once. Plunkett also spoke with pitching coach Mark Prior regarding Kershaw’s dip in velocity since returning, with Prior calling the drop below 90 mph on Kershaw’s fastball “surprising,” though he added that Kershaw maintains that his shoulder feels fine.

If there’s any concerns regarding Kershaw’s ability to start playoff games deep into the postseason, it certainly makes sense for the Dodgers to manage his workload carefully down the stretch. The club has a massive 13 game lead in the NL West, essentially guaranteeing them a division title, while the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs give LA a whopping 99.8% chance to clinch a bye in the Wild Card round, allowing them to move directly into the NLDS. With regular season games rapidly waning in importance for the Dodgers and a rotation featuring Kershaw, Lance Lynn (6.09 ERA in 28 starts) and a trio of rookies led by Bobby Miller (3.98 ERA in 18 starts), it’s a no-brainer for the Dodgers to take as few risks with their 35-year-old ace’s arm as possible.

More from the National League…

  • Cubs infielder Jeimer Candelario exited today’s game against the Diamondbacks due to back tightness, as manager David Ross told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this evening, and will be re-evaluated tomorrow. Candelario has had a big rebound season since being non-tendered by the Tigers last winter, as the switch-hitter has slashed .254/.339/.475 in 553 trips to the plate split between the Nationals and Cubs this season. He’s cooled off a bit recently, slashing just .161/.257/.356 in his last 101 trips to the plate, but that month long cold stretch doesn’t change the fact that Candelario is a key piece of Chicago’s lineup alongside the likes of Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki as they look to return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018. Should Candelario miss time with the injury, the club figures to rely on Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom at third base.
  • Giants outfielder Austin Slater has been out of the lineup in recent days due to illness, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noting that the 30 year old visited a specialist recently and received vertigo medicine, which has helped to alleviate the dizziness and balance issues he had been struggling with. It’s been a bit of a down year for Slater, as he’s hit just .248/.328/.379 as he’s shifted to more of a part time role with San Francisco. Luis Matos has acted as the club’s primary center fielder in Slater’s absence.
  • Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez left today’s game against the Twins in the seventh inning after being struck in the hand by a pitch during the fifth inning. Fortuantely, Mike Puma of the New York Post noted that Alvarez underwent x-rays on his hand that came back negative, indicating the 21-year-old rookie avoided a serious injury. Alvarez took over as the club’s primary catcher following an early-season injury to veteran backstop Omar Narvaez and has performed solidly in the role, hitting .212/.288/.434 in 107 games. That stat line is good for a wRC+ of 98, ahead of quality regulars behind the plate like Alejandro Kirk, Yan Gomes, and Tyler Stephenson.

Walker Buehler Won’t Return This Year

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The Dodgers announced that right-hander Walker Buehler, who recently began a rehab assignment after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, won’t return to the club this year. He will instead focusing on getting healthy for 2024.

“My goal since last year has been to return to a major league mound this season,” Buehler says in a club statement. “After many conversations with my doctor, the Dodgers’ front office, training staff and my family, we concluded that waiting until next season is the right course of action. I am disappointed that I will not be able to help this team go after a title in the 2023 postseason, but I look forward to returning fully healthy in 2024 and bringing another World Series to L.A.”

Buehler, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in August of last year. Given that the recovery period for that procedure often pushes to 14 months or more, his ability to return in 2023 was questionable right from the get-go. Nonetheless, he planned to give it a try, saying earlier in the year that he was targeting a September return. That plan still seemed to be on track as recently as this weekend, when Buehler started a rehab assignment, tossing two innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday.

But it seems that Buehler, along with the various other parties he mentioned, have decided that it’s no longer feasible. It’s unclear exactly what the situation is, but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that there was no setback and that Buehler still feels good physically. He just hasn’t progressed enough and pushing himself in the next few weeks comes with too high a risk of re-injury.

While it sounds like both the pitcher and the club have agreed that prioritizing his long-term health is the sensible approach, it will be a significant challenge for the club in the short-term given the other challenges they are facing in the rotation. Dustin May required flexor tendon surgery earlier this year and Tony Gonsolin required Tommy John surgery not too long ago. Both of them are now out for the remainder of this year and at least part of next year as well. Julio Urías was placed on administrative leave earlier this week as the league investigates him for a possible domestic violence violation. His situation is unclear but it seems unlikely he will be returning anytime soon.

Those absences, along with today’s news about Buehler, make the rotation start to feel a bit flimsy. The Dodgers are in a healthy place overall with a record of 85-54, putting them 13 games up on the Diamondbacks in the division and eight games ahead of the Brewers for a bye through the first round of the playoffs. But starting pitching takes on magnified importance in the postseason when teams lean on their top pitchers more often.

The Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw on the active roster, though his health is a big question mark at the moment. He already missed over a month of the season, from early July to the middle of August, due to a shoulder issue. While on the IL, he spoke about how he felt fine but was being told to rest after undergoing an MRI. He’s now been back for over a month but it seems that situation is lingering.

Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic looked into the details this week, highlighting that Kershaw failed to hit 90 mph with his fastball at any point in his most recent outing, despite averaging over 91 mph with the pitch earlier in the year. Kershaw continues to assert that he feels fine, in spite of the clearly diminished stuff. Manager Dave Roberts conceded that Kershaw was still not 100% healthy but insisted he would continue to pitch. “He’s going to keep going until he can’t,” Roberts said. “If he is able to take the baseball, he’s going to take the baseball.”

There’s also Lance Lynn, acquired from the White Sox at the deadline, though he has an earned run average of 6.09 on the year. That mark was 6.47 with Chicago and he initially showed better results after changing jerseys, but he went on to allow 15 earned runs over his two most recent starts. Ryan Yarbrough has a 3.80 ERA but the club doesn’t seem to trust him beyond pitching bulk innings out of the bullpen.

Beyond them, the club is relying on rookies, with some encouraging results in there. Bobby Miller has a 3.80 ERA on the year in his 17 starts and Ryan Pepiot is at 0.86 in his four outings. On the less encouraging side, Emmet Sheehan has an ERA of 5.31 while Michael Grove is at 6.61 and currently rehabbing a lat strain.

All in all, there are plenty of questions in that mix, either due to health or a lack of experience or general ineffectiveness. Bringing Buehler back could have been a difference maker, as he has a 3.02 career ERA in the regular season and a 2.94 mark in the postseason. However, it seems that’s not in the cards and the Dodgers will have to cobble together a playoff rotation without him. Buehler will instead set his sights on the 2024 campaign, which will be important for him personally, as that will be his final arbitration season before he is slated to reach free agency.

Injury Notes: McClanahan, Rengifo, Kershaw, Stroman

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News that Rays ace Shane McClanahan would require Tommy John surgery already strongly implied that he’ll miss not just the remainder of the 2023 season but perhaps the entire 2024 campaign as well — and McClanahan has effectively confirmed as much to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Topkin writes that the 26-year-old McClanahan expects to be sidelined until 2025 after renowned surgeons Dr. Neal ElAttrache and Keith Meister both made the same recommendation. Meister, who performed the procedure, also “cleaned up” some bone chips in McClanahan’s elbow, the pitcher added.

“I was really frustrated when I found out, but I can’t control that,” McClanahan tells Topkin. “…I want to control how hard I work, the quality of teammate I am and the consistency on the field. And ultimately, the next year, year and a half, whatever it may be, I’m going to work my butt off to make sure that when I’m healthy, it’s going to be the same me.” Topkin’s piece contains plenty of quotes from McClanahan on his injury, the surgery and his mindset as he embarks on a lengthy rehab process, so Rays fans in particular will want to check it out in full.

A few more injury notes from around the league…

  • Angels infielder/outfielder Luis Rengifo exited last night’s game with a strained left biceps that he apparently sustained taking swings in the on-deck circle prior to his first at-bat, per Sarah Valenzuela of the Los Angeles Times. The Angels are further evaluating him today, but manager Phil Nevin conceded that the injury “doesn’t look good.” Further details will surely follow once the 26-year-old Rengifo has undergone imaging. A Rengifo injury of note would be the latest in a series of unwelcome developments for the Angels. He’s been the team’s hottest hitter for the past six weeks, evidenced by a scalding .342/.393/.602 batting line with nine homers, nine doubles, three triples and just a 14.6% strikeout rate in that time. On the whole Rengifo is hitting .264/.339/.444 in what has easily been the most productive all-around season of his still-young career. He’s under club control for an additional two seasons beyond the current campaign.
  • Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw still isn’t pitching at 100% following the shoulder strain that sent him to the injured list this summer, writes Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Kershaw didn’t reach 90 mph in his most recent start, and his average fastball velocity of just 88.4 mph in that outing was the second-lowest of any appearance in his career. Kershaw, however, is adamant that he can continue to pitch through the issue — and the Dodgers appear willing to let him do so. “If he is able to take the baseball, he’s going to take the baseball,” manager Dave Roberts said of the left-hander.
  • Marcus Stroman hasn’t pitched since July 31 due to inflammation in his hip and, more problematically, a rib cartilage fracture that was discovered as he was on the cusp of returning from that hip issue. However, he tossed 29 pitches during a live batting practice session yesterday, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, and Cubs manager David Ross acknowledged that the right-hander appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery. Stroman will likely require at least one minor league rehab start (if not two), but it seems there’s a good chance the 32-year-old could return before season’s end — and perhaps factor into the postseason rotation. How Stroman fares down the stretch will be worth watching with a particularly close eye, as he has a $21MM player option for the 2024 season but has long appeared likely to decline that and return to the market in search of a lengthier pact.

Dodgers Activate Clayton Kershaw From Injured List

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The Dodgers announced that left-hander Clayton Kershaw has been activated from the injured list, with fellow lefty Victor González optioned in a corresponding move.

Kershaw, 35, was placed on the 15-day IL July 3, retroactive to June 30, due to soreness in his left shoulder. It was initially hoped that the southpaw could return after a brief respite, perhaps only missing a start or two since the All-Star break was coming up. However, subsequent reporting indicated he would likely be out until early August, which has now come to pass, as he will take the ball to start tonight’s game against the Rockies.

Prior to the IL stint, the results continued to be excellent for Kershaw. He’s thrown 95 1/3 innings over 16 starts so far this year, having allowed 2.55 earned runs per nine innings. His 27.7% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 47.2% ground ball rate are all above league average.

Trips to the IL have become the norm for him, with 2015 being the last season in which he didn’t have at least one stint away from the club. That was also the last year in which he topped 180 regular season innings, and he’s been held beneath 127 frames in each campaign since 2019.

Although Kershaw’s absence wasn’t especially long, rotation health has been and continues to be a major focus for the club. Walker Buehler has been on the IL all year due to last year’s Tommy John surgery. Dustin May required flexor tendon surgery a few months back and won’t return this year. Tony Gonsolin missed time due to an ankle sprain and Julio Urías was sidelined by a hamstring strain. Ryan Pepiot was on the IL for about four months due to an oblique strain and Michael Grove recently hit the shelf due to lat tightness.

The club acquired Lance Lynn from the White Sox prior to the deadline to bolster the rotation, though he has an ERA over 6.00 for the year. They also wanted to acquire Eduardo Rodriguez from the Tigers and reportedly had a deal in place, though he nixed that with his limited no-trade clause. That leaves the club with a five-man rotation of Kershaw, Lynn, Urías, Gonsolin and rookie Bobby Miller for the time being. Urías and Gonsolin have also been a bit shaky this year, with ERAs of 4.39 and 4.43, respectively. Depth options include Pepiot, Gavin Stone, and Emmet Sheehan, though each of those have posted middling results this year. Ryan Yarbrough is on hand as a long relief option in the bullpen and could perhaps jump into a rotation role, if needed.

Despite those rotation challenges, the Dodgers are still leading the National League West, six games clear of the Giants. The health and performance of the rotation figures to be an important factor in how strong they finish the regular season and perhaps how they perform in the postseason.

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