Clayton Kershaw

West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto

By Nick Deeds | December 23, 2023 at 8:33pm CDT

The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.

According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.

If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.

Max Scherzer Undergoes Back Surgery

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | December 15, 2023 at 12:00pm CDT

The Rangers announced Friday that right-hander Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back. General manager Chris Young tells reporters that the team and Scherzer tried “multiple conservative treatments in pain management” before resorting to surgery (link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Unfortunately, the last-resort option was apparently deemed necessary, and the operation will sideline Scherzer into June or even July.

“After returning to my offseason home in Florida, my discomfort in my back continued to get worse,” Scherzer himself said, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. “During this time, I received a diagnosis of a herniated disc. After several conservative treatments and consulting with multiple specialists, I made the decision to have the recommended surgery. Getting this procedure done now will give me the best chance to pitch as much as possible for the Rangers in 2024. I look forward to putting in the rehab work and getting back on the mound next summer.”

It’s obviously unwelcome news for the Rangers, who just gave up Luisangel Acuña to acquire Scherzer and cash from the Mets at last year’s deadline. As part of that deal, the Scherzer agreed to pick up his 2024 player option so that the club knew it was getting him for more than just a rental situation. Now he will miss at least half of the upcoming season that was obviously important to them.

These back problems aren’t coming out of the blue today. Scherzer was removed from Game 3 of the World Series after just three innings due to issue with his back, varyingly described as tightness or spasms. He was removed from the club’s roster prior to Game 4. Though the club was able to secure the title without him, it seems the issue lingered and ultimately required a significant surgery.

The club is now in a very peculiar situation in terms of their rotation, with the first half outlook wildly different than the second. Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June and could potentially return late in the 2024 campaign, depending on how his rehab goes. The club also signed Tyler Mahle just yesterday, who is on a similar timeline to deGrom, having undergone his own TJS procedure in May.

That means the club could welcome each of Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom back to the club over the course of 2024, but none of them will factor into the Opening Day rotation. For now, that leaves them with Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning as healthy options for the start of the season. Options for the back end would include Cody Bradford or Owen White, though they could also pursue external additions in the weeks to come.

This will likely give the club some interesting calculations to make. Last month, general manager Chris Young suggested their spending would likely be more modest this offseason, when compared to the big money they’ve recently thrown around on those aforementioned pitchers as well as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Although the club just won the World Series and surely banked some extra playoff money, there’s uncertainty around their broadcast revenues due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the owner of the Bally Sports network. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently at $233MM, per Roster Resource, just barely below next year’s base threshold of $237MM.

Rosenthal took a look at their situation earlier today, noting that the club was still interested in Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery and is yet another pitcher slated for a midseason return. That column came out before the Scherzer news, so it’s unknown if the club would still want to use its limited payroll room to bring in yet another pitcher that will miss the first half of the season.

But Rosenthal also adds that, if ownership becomes more comfortable with adding payroll, they could pivot to a reunion with Jordan Montgomery or one of the top starters on the trading block. Even with Glasnow seemingly headed to the Dodgers, pitchers like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes could be available for the right price.

If the club plans to stick with their conservative offseason, it may involve taking a risk on having limited pitching depth in the first half while banking on the returns of those injured guys for a strong second half push. But improving that depth might require them to alter their spending plans and/or go into luxury tax territory.

Clayton Kershaw “Doing Really Well” Early In Recovery From Shoulder Procedure

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2023 at 11:29pm CDT

Free agent starter Clayton Kershaw spoke publicly for the first time since announcing he underwent shoulder surgery on November 3. In a chat with David Vassegh of 570 AM’s Dodger Talk, the three-time Cy Young winner indicated he’s recovering nicely in the first five weeks after the operation.

“I think I’m doing really well. I don’t have a lot to compare it to. I’ve never had surgery before, but I really do feel great, all things considered,” Kershaw told Vassegh. “I’m doing a lot of movement stuff now, starting to strengthen it. … I’m excited to pitch again, and I really do think it’ll be this summer at some point. I feel good about that.”

A summer return is in line with what Kershaw projected in the immediate aftermath of the procedure. It’s nevertheless encouraging to hear he remains on that track after the earliest stages of his rehab process. While the 35-year-old has loosely floated the possibility of retiring in previous offseasons, he reiterated this evening that he’s not considering stepping away at this point.

Kershaw indicated he has the support of his family to continue playing. He added that he didn’t want to conclude his career on what would’ve been a very sour note. Kershaw, working with clearly diminished stuff as he pitched through the shoulder pain, was hammered for six runs without getting out of the first inning in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks. Arizona swept that series en route to the pennant.

The 10-time All-Star declined to speculate on where he expects to play in 2024 or when he might sign. It’s hard to envision the career-long Dodger in another uniform. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has repeatedly expressed that the organization would welcome Kershaw back for as long as he wants to continue pitching.

L.A. has Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler anchoring the rotation. Ryan Pepiot currently projects as the #3 starter, but his name has been floated in chatter about a potential trade for Rays ace Tyler Glasnow. Pitchers like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough are in the mix at the back end.

Regardless of Kershaw’s decision, the Dodgers figure to bring in multiple starters. If Kershaw were to re-sign, he’d join Dustin May as potential midseason injury returnees. May underwent a flexor tendon procedure in early July. Tony Gonsolin, who had Tommy John surgery in late August, appears likely to miss the entire season.

Dodgers Rumors: Kershaw, Martinez, Ohtani

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2023 at 12:40pm CDT

The Dodgers opted not to issue a qualifying offer to designated hitter J.D. Martinez and aren’t sure exactly when fellow free agent Clayton Kershaw will be cleared to pitch next season on the heels of shoulder surgery, but there’s some interest in keeping both players around for the 2024 campaign. President of baseball ops Andrew Friedman said at this week’s GM Meetings that his group is hopeful Kershaw continues pitching and spends the remainder of his career in a Dodgers uniform (via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times).

The lack of a qualifying offer for Martinez might’ve been a modest surprise at first glance, given his 33 home runs and .271/.321/.572 batting line on the season. A one-year deal at $20.325MM certainly seems justified for that level of production.

However, as we suggested in our Top 50 Free Agent list, the Dodgers surely didn’t want to risk the possibility of Martinez accepting a QO, given their widely expected pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. The former AL MVP will be limited to DH duties next year, so Martinez accepting would’ve been an unnecessary roadblock in those efforts. As a reminder, players that accept a QO are considered free agent signings and thus cannot be traded without their consent prior to June 15 of the following season; in other words, there was no straightforward scenario where Martinez accepted a QO and could then just be flipped elsewhere should the Dodgers emerge victorious in the Ohtani bidding.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Ohtani’s presence on the market indeed influenced the Martinez QO decision, as one would logically expect. Friedman himself alluded to the very same yesterday, telling Harris that an eventual Martinez reunion is a possibility, but the Dodgers aren’t presently sure “which direction we’re going to go with our position player group” (a very likely nod to the uncertainty surrounding Ohtani’s still-nascent market).

While it’s certainly possible that Martinez might prefer to see where Ohtani lands before accepting an offer himself, that’s far from a given. There’s some logic to waiting to ensure that the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Rangers and other expected Ohtani suitors can join the bidding for Martinez’s services. But at the same time, if a team that knows it won’t be signing Ohtani swoops in with a strong offer for Martinez early in the offseason, he could also move quickly rather than run the risk of overplaying his hand. Earlier free agent deals tend to be stronger than those bartered late in the offseason, after all.

Turning to Kershaw, there’s still no indication as to when he might make a decision on his future. Friedman (via Harris) indicated that the Dodgers are “giving him the time and space to make the best decision” for his family. The Dodgers were similarly patient regarding Kershaw two offseasons ago, when he remained unsigned through the 99-day MLB lockout and took until March 13 to put pen to paper on a new deal. Last winter, when Kershaw was once again a free agent, things came together far more quickly; the two parties agreed to terms on a deal for the 2023 season as early as November 11.

Friedman said last month that the ball is squarely in Kershaw’s court, as the pitcher already knows the team’s feelings and knows the Dodgers are hopeful he’ll return. Those comments came prior to Kershaw’s surgery. The pitcher has since said he’s hopeful of returning to the mound sometime next summer.

Without Kershaw in the fold, the Los Angeles rotation mix currently includes Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone and Ryan Yarbrough. Righty Dustin May will miss the beginning of the 2024 campaign after undergoing flexor tendon surgery and a Tommy John revision in early July. Fellow right-hander Tony Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in late August and could miss the entire ’24 campaign. The Dodgers figure to be in the market for multiple arms over the course of the offseason, whether that includes Kershaw or not.

Clayton Kershaw Undergoes Shoulder Surgery; Hoping For Summer Return

By Darragh McDonald | November 3, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

Left-hander Clayton Kershaw announced on Instagram that he underwent a surgical procedure this morning to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. He says that he is “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.”

Kershaw, 35, had a strange campaign in 2023. He had made 16 starts through the end of June with typically strong results, holding an ERA of 2.55 at that time. He was placed on the injured list in early July due to some shoulder soreness. It didn’t seem especially concerning at that time, with the hope seeming to be that the All-Star break would allow him to miss just one or two turns through the rotation.

However, a couple of weeks later, there seemed to be some confusion around the issue. He underwent an MRI in the middle of July and wasn’t activated from the IL, although he wasn’t in any pain. “I feel completely fine. The shoulder feels good,” Kershaw said at the time. “I’ve just been told it has to rest. It’s a weird deal. I’ve never had anything like it, to the point where, like I’m gonna go play catch today and throw it as hard as I can, and they say it needs to rest. It’s just weird, honestly. I don’t know what to make of it. But I’m just gonna have to listen to [doctors].”

He was eventually activated in early August, with more confusion to come. His results continued to be strong, as he posted an ERA of 2.23 in his final eight starts of the year. But he was clearly working with diminished stuff. While he averaged above 91 MPH on his fastball prior to that IL stint, it was down to 90.2 MPH in August and 88.6 MPH in September. His slider also lost a few ticks as the season wore on. Although he was able to continue pitching well in the regular season, the wheels finally came off in the playoffs. Kershaw was lit up in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks, allowing six earned runs while only recording one out.

It seems Kershaw finally got some answers from the medical community and went under the knife today. While solving the mystery around his ailment provides some clarity, it seems there’s plenty of uncertainty ahead. This appears to be the first time the phrase “gleno-humeral” has appeared on the pages of MLBTR, suggesting this isn’t a particularly common procedure to be working back from. Kershaw has also had plenty of other ailments in the recent parts of his career. His 131 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 were the most he’s logged since 2019, spending time on the IL in recent years due to back stiffness, left elbow inflammation, left forearm discomfort, right SI joint inflammation, low back pain and the recent shoulder soreness.

Even without the health issues, Kershaw has gone into the past two offseasons with an uncertain path forward. It was seen by many that he was deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. In both cases, he returned to the Dodgers on a one-year deal, with a $17MM salary in 2022 and $20MM this past year. Last month, he again expressed uncertainty about his future going into free agency once more.

The Dodgers opted against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer in those two years, though he would have deserved one based on his performance. As a sign of respect to the long-tenured player, they afforded him the freedom to take his time making a decision, whereas issuing a QO would have required Kershaw accept or decline within a few days of receiving it. They were presumably planning the same course of action this winter but this surgery would seemingly take the QO off the table even if they were considering it.

More information will likely trickle out over the winter, but the fact that Kershaw is “hopeful” of returning to play in the summer suggests that it’s not a guarantee. Perhaps he will spend some time rehabbing and trying to get healthy before signing a new contract, though that’s entirely speculative.

For the Dodgers, they likely have to proceed under the assumption that they can’t count on Kershaw, though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman previously stated they would welcome him back. Beyond the fact that he’s not officially on the team anymore, it’s not certain he will be able to rejoin them even if he were willing to do so. In addition to Kershaw, Julio Urías and Lance Lynn are now free agents, with the club declining an option on the latter today. Tony Gonsolin could miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, while Dustin May’s flexor tendon surgery should keep him out for at least the first half of 2024.

That leaves the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from his own TJS, in the top spot. He is followed by guys with very limited experience, such as Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough, though he might wind up non-tendered, the same way the Rays cut him loose a year ago.

Though the Kershaw news may complicate things, the Dodgers do have plenty of money to work with and figure to be active in all levels of free agency. The top of the market features names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, though there are plenty of other intriguing names from Sonny Gray to Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty and many more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By Darragh McDonald | October 30, 2023 at 7:27pm CDT

The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

Sonny Gray (Twins)
Josh Hader (Padres)
Aaron Nola (Phillies)
Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
Blake Snell (Padres)

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Seth Lugo (Padres)

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Kenta Maeda (Twins)

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Michael Wacha (Padres)

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Frankie Montas (Yankees)

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

Jack Flaherty (Orioles)
Lucas Giolito (Guardians)
Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, NPB)
Jordan Montgomery (Rangers)
Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers)
Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Orix Buffaloes, NPB)

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

NL West Notes: Christenson, Giants, Padres, Chapman, Soto, Kershaw

By Mark Polishuk | October 28, 2023 at 2:38pm CDT

Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco. Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants. Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.

It isn’t known what coaching roles Christenson and Williams might take with the Giants, though most of the (very large) staff was expected to stay in place. Bench coach Kai Correa is under contract for next season, though Baggarly writes that the Giants are likely to give him permission to interview with other teams, so this could provide an opening for Christenson to just assume the bench coach job. Mark Hallberg is the third base coach, and since the team thought highly enough of Hallberg to interview him for the manager’s job, the Giants could probably try to find space for both Hallberg and Williams on the staff.

Andrew Friedman On Roberts, Kershaw, Offseason Plans

By Leo Morgenstern | October 17, 2023 at 5:55pm CDT

Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman met with the media (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) on Tuesday afternoon, alongside GM Brandon Gomes. The two executives discussed the disappointing conclusion to another Dodgers season, potential changes to the major league coaching staff, and the team’s offseason plans.

Speaking on his ballclub’s unceremonious exit from the playoffs, Friedman could not deny that the words “organizational failure” ring true once again (he used the same phrase last season). Putting it bluntly, he said, “Our goal was to win 11 games in October, and we didn’t win one.” Indeed, Diamondbacks hitters trounced the Dodgers pitching staff in Game 1 of the NLDS, and L.A.’s own powerful offense rarely came through. Notably, Friedman also used the term “organizational failure” to avoid blaming any specific people or groups of people for his team’s poor performance. “Organizational failure means it’s on all of us,” he explained.

On that note, Friedman left no doubt that manager Dave Roberts and his entire coaching staff would be back in 2024, confirming that there won’t be any changes in the clubhouse. “I think [Dave Roberts] and our coaching staff did an incredible job this year,” he said, “And none of us did an incredible job in those three games versus Arizona.”

Unsurprisingly, Friedman says his top priority this offseason will be starting pitching. That means assessing internal options as well as considering potential trades and free agent signings. Dodgers’ starters struggled in 2023, posting an uncharacteristic 4.57 ERA and 4.37 SIERA. Things became especially bleak toward the end of the year; ten different pitchers started a game for the Dodgers in September, combining for a 4.87 ERA. The team had no shortage of depth, but too few reliable options.

Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías will be free agents after the season, as will Lance Lynn – presuming the Dodgers decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout. On top of that, Tony Gonsolin will be out for most, if not all, of the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dustin May’s status for next season is also up in the air, after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in July.

That leaves Bobby Miller, who just completed his rookie season, and Walker Buehler, who hasn’t pitched since June 2022, as the only healthy, established starters remaining in the Dodgers rotation. The team has several young starting pitchers on the roster, including Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone, but none with more than 100 innings of big league experience. Friedman expressed confidence in Miller and Buehler during his press conference, but he understands the need to augment the rotation.

As for Kershaw, Friedman made it clear that the Dodgers are “absolutely” interested in bringing the superstar pitcher back for another season. However, the ten-time All-Star hasn’t yet told the team if he plans to return. “I think he and [his wife] Ellen are going to take some time right now and assess,” the team president said (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). “The ball’s squarely in their court.”

In addition to starting pitching, Friedman will also look to address position player needs during the offseason. The Dodgers had an excellent offense in 2023, finishing second in baseball in OPS and runs scored. That said, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, utility man Enrique Hernández, and outfielders Jason Heyward and David Peralta will all be free agents after the conclusion of the World Series. The team will need to replace Martinez and Heyward’s production in particular. In addition, the Dodgers might look to add a new infielder so Mookie Betts can return to a regular role in right field.

Gomes didn’t speak as much as his boss, but he did confirm a report that he declined to interview for the GM opening in Boston. “I’m very flattered and appreciate the interest,” he said (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “But I love it here, and my family loves it here. I’m passionate about this organization and solely focused on winning multiple championships here.”

Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

By Anthony Franco | October 12, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Candelario, Slater, Alvarez

By Nick Deeds | September 10, 2023 at 8:19pm CDT

The Dodgers have decided to push the next start of veteran ace Clayton Kershaw to Friday, as noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Kershaw was originally slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Padres. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that the decision to move Kershaw’s start wasn’t prompted by a physical issue, saying that the main goal in pushing his start back is lining up the rotation for the postseason.

As Plunkett notes, however, Kershaw’s workload has been carefully monitored by the Dodgers ever since he returned from a six-week sojourn on the injured list due to shoulder issues. Kershaw has not pitched beyond the fifth inning since returning and has eclipsed 80 pitches in a start just once. Plunkett also spoke with pitching coach Mark Prior regarding Kershaw’s dip in velocity since returning, with Prior calling the drop below 90 mph on Kershaw’s fastball “surprising,” though he added that Kershaw maintains that his shoulder feels fine.

If there’s any concerns regarding Kershaw’s ability to start playoff games deep into the postseason, it certainly makes sense for the Dodgers to manage his workload carefully down the stretch. The club has a massive 13 game lead in the NL West, essentially guaranteeing them a division title, while the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs give LA a whopping 99.8% chance to clinch a bye in the Wild Card round, allowing them to move directly into the NLDS. With regular season games rapidly waning in importance for the Dodgers and a rotation featuring Kershaw, Lance Lynn (6.09 ERA in 28 starts) and a trio of rookies led by Bobby Miller (3.98 ERA in 18 starts), it’s a no-brainer for the Dodgers to take as few risks with their 35-year-old ace’s arm as possible.

More from the National League…

Cubs infielder Jeimer Candelario exited today’s game against the Diamondbacks due to back tightness, as manager David Ross told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) this evening, and will be re-evaluated tomorrow. Candelario has had a big rebound season since being non-tendered by the Tigers last winter, as the switch-hitter has slashed .254/.339/.475 in 553 trips to the plate split between the Nationals and Cubs this season. He’s cooled off a bit recently, slashing just .161/.257/.356 in his last 101 trips to the plate, but that month long cold stretch doesn’t change the fact that Candelario is a key piece of Chicago’s lineup alongside the likes of Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki as they look to return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018. Should Candelario miss time with the injury, the club figures to rely on Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom at third base.
Giants outfielder Austin Slater has been out of the lineup in recent days due to illness, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noting that the 30 year old visited a specialist recently and received vertigo medicine, which has helped to alleviate the dizziness and balance issues he had been struggling with. It’s been a bit of a down year for Slater, as he’s hit just .248/.328/.379 as he’s shifted to more of a part time role with San Francisco. Luis Matos has acted as the club’s primary center fielder in Slater’s absence.
Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez left today’s game against the Twins in the seventh inning after being struck in the hand by a pitch during the fifth inning. Fortuantely, Mike Puma of the New York Post noted that Alvarez underwent x-rays on his hand that came back negative, indicating the 21-year-old rookie avoided a serious injury. Alvarez took over as the club’s primary catcher following an early-season injury to veteran backstop Omar Narvaez and has performed solidly in the role, hitting .212/.288/.434 in 107 games. That stat line is good for a wRC+ of 98, ahead of quality regulars behind the plate like Alejandro Kirk, Yan Gomes, and Tyler Stephenson.

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