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Craig Kimbrel

NL East Notes: McNeil, Marlins, Braves

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The Mets’ additions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie have eaten up most of the infield at-bats that would’ve otherwise gone to breakout 2018 rookie Jeff McNeil, writes Anthony DiComo in his latest inbox column. As such, McNeil now looks outfield bound in 2019 — a role he’s only played in a total of nine minor league games. While Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are locked into outfield spots — likely in center and right field — McNeil will join Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in the mix for additional outfield playing time. (Yoenis Cespedes’ status for the 2019 season is uncertain following surgery on both heels.) It’s curious to see McNeil to a more limited role after the 26-year-old burst onto the scene with a .329/.381/.471 slash in 248 plate appearances, though surely the organization feels its depth on the position player side is formidable. For those wondering, DiComo notes that Todd Frazier isn’t likely to be moved coming off a career-worst year, adding that GM Brodie Van Wagenen indicated Frazier is expected to receive regular at-bats at the infield corners. It’s somewhat curious, then, that the Mets chose to deepen their infield mix with Lowrie rather than add a reliever like Adam Ottavino, who agreed to a $9MM annual salary on a three-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.

Here’s more from the National League East…

  • Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides an update on a sleepy Marlins offseason, explaining that the club is still waiting for some bigger things to fall into place before adding to its roster. Beyond the obvious fact that the rebuilding club is waiting to see what players might fall through the cracks in free agency, the Marlins are not particularly interested in making moves before lining up a hopeful trade involving star catcher J.T. Realmuto. That deal could return some MLB pieces, which would dictate the team’s further needs. Jackson also reports that Miami would like to add a lefty bat who can play both the infield and the outfield — a perplexing target considering the fact that the Marlins cut Derek Dietrich, who fits that description to a tee, rather than pay him a projected $4.8MM salary. Jackson again notes that right-hander Dan Straily is available, though Miami isn’t shopping him and would be happy to have him in the rotation in 2019 if a solid offer doesn’t materialize.
  • The Braves likely wouldn’t offer Craig Kimbrel more than three years to bring him back to Atlanta, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com, and even then, the average annual value Kimbrel figures to seek could prove prohibitive. The outfield and the rotation, it seems, are still larger priorities for Atlanta decision-makers. Bowman notes that the Braves have not pursued Adam Jones in free agency despite a clear corner outfield opening, instead citing Nick Markakis as the likeliest free agent for the team to pursue.

Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford

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With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.

Here’s the latest on the relief market:

  • The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel’s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
  • With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
  • Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.

Phillies “Expected” To Make Offer To Bryce Harper Soon

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4:45pm: Machado was the Phils’ primary target at one point, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), but it’s now much more even between him and Harper — if not slightly tilted in Harper’s favor. The Phillies, according to Heyman, are expected to make a formal offer to Harper in the near future.

Even if the Phillies won’t sign both Machado and Harper, Heyman notes that the goal is to sign one and then explore the market for other top free agents like Pollock, Keuchel and Kimbrel.  To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites team executives with the Phils in tweeting that organization has “visions” of signing the trio of Harper, Keuchel and Kimbrel. Paired with the prior acquisitions of Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, among others, that’d obviously be a seismic roster overhaul — the magnitude of which has been virtually unparalleled by any team in recent memory.

Of course, striving to add that trio and actually signing all three are two entirely separate animals, and it remains to be seen how feasible it is that the Phillies could win the bidding on three of the market’s top remaining free agents.

1:00pm: With a surprisingly small number of teams engaged on superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, it has at times seemed as if the big-budget Phillies are the favorites to land both players. Of course, even if the Philadelphia org is the likeliest single team to secure the services of each, that does not mean that it should be expected to come away with a pair of monster deals. Still, the possibility of hooking two free agent trophies has remained tantalizing to consider.

In the course of an interesting breakdown of the current situation, though, Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link) strikes a blow to the idea of the Phillies making successive strikes for both Harper and Machado. The Phils, he reports, have “made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.”

Certainly, there was never anything approaching an expectation that the Phillies would land both, or even that they’d seriously consider taking on two huge salaries. But it’s still a notable bit of seemingly hard information in a market situation that has remained exceedingly fluid, so far as is known publicly.

As Gelb explains, moreover, that stance is perhaps a notable aspect of the Phillies’ strategy in approaching both Harper and Machado. If the club’s money is only there for one of the two players, that conveys no small amount of leverage. Even if both players would rather end up elsewhere, they surely can’t ignore the presence of the Phils’ ample pocketbooks in navigating a surprisingly barren field of pursuers.

Perhaps the best case scenario for the Philadelphia club would be for one of these two players to jump on a big but palatable offer to join on. Of course, their respective representatives — Scott Boras, for Harper, and Dan Lozano, for Machado — have played this game before. We’ve seen teams emerge from the woodwork in the past to land players of this quality with surprisingly massive contracts. As Gelb rightly suggests, the presence (or absence) of “mystery teams” — whether as active bidders or as conjured by the agents — may go a long way toward influencing the course of negotiations.

Gelb says the Philly club intends to continue exercising confident patience in talks. The situation seems ripe for that approach, though surely the team would be better-situated if Harper or Machado had a stronger personal desire to end up in Philly. Really, there seem only to be a few risks here (beyond those that are inherent to such a major investment, which the team has already largely resolved in favor of action).

Those risks seem manageable. One is simply that the team loses out on the player it prefers to land, which would appear to be Machado. Given that the roster is susceptible of upgrades at both the corner outfield and third base, that’s not a major worry. Another is that it ends up having to pay a bit more by allowing the bidding to get going in earnest. Paying a premium now to forestall that possibility seems unwise, when the Phillies can surely afford to cover a higher price if that ends up being required. (This is the point of the post where I quote owner John Middleton on his willingness to spend “stupid money” this winter.)

Finally, the Phils could end up missing on both players. Gelb says the team is confident it will land one of the two, though surely there’s some possibility that they’ll both head elsewhere. That is perhaps the most concerning outcome, though even then there are alternatives. A.J. Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel are the leading three alternative remaining free agents; all would be hypothetical fits. And the trade market is all but sure to have some intriguing targets still available, even if it means coughing up more prospect capital than the team might wish. Losing the star power would hurt, but it seems reasonable to think the Phillies could still back-fill the missing talent.

All things considered, there are still many ways in which things could shake out — with both Harper and Machado landing in Philadelphia evidently not among them. Today’s news may not be earth-shattering, but it does cabin the universe of foreseeable outcomes. With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, in a slow-moving and increasingly tense market setting, it’s a signpost that’s at least worthy of keeping in mind.

Dombrowski: Red Sox “Have Not Anticipated Large Expenditure For A Closer”

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The Red Sox have already lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers via free agency and stand to lose Craig Kimbrel in free agency as well if they don’t make a push to re-sign him in the coming weeks. However, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of retaining Kimbrel in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “Craig did a great job for us,” said Dombrowski. “He’s a Hall of Fame reliever, but we have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer.”

Those words have to be cringe-worthy for Kimbrel and his representatives, as the seven-time All-Star reportedly entered free agency hoping to secure a six-year pact. As of late December, Kimbrel’s camp had dropped the price tag a bit but was still seeking a deal along the lines of the five-year pacts scored by Aroldis Chapman ($86MM) and Kenley Jansen ($80MM) two offseasons ago. As I noted at the time of that report, though, Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen — meaning he’s over a year older now than were the other two hurlers at the time they signed.

Looking beyond the impact of Dombrowski’s comments on Kimbrel, however, it’s perhaps alarming for Sox fans to hear the team’s top decision-maker suggest that there may not be a bullpen splash of note. Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are currently in line for work at the back of the Boston ’pen, and that trio can’t exactly fill fans or the team with confidence.

While Brasier looked sensational as an out-of-the-blue reclamation project in 2018 and Barnes has emerged as a quality setup piece over the past two seasons, the overall bullpen is lacking in experience. Brandon Workman has been solid over the past two seasons but in a smallish sample of 81 innings. Tyler Thornburg was tendered a contract after a pair of injury-ruined campaigns, while lefty Brian Johnson has been steady but unspectacular.

It should be noted, of course, that Dombrowski’s comments certainly don’t indicate that the Sox won’t be making bullpen additions of any kind. But a splash for Kimbrel seems unlikely in the wake of such a public declaration, and second-tier names like Adam Ottavino could also prove steep depending on Dombrowski’s definition of “large expenditure.” It’s worth noting that over at Roster Resource, Jason Martinez projects Boston’s current luxury tax payroll to be at a hefty $239.7MM. Even accounting for a bit of wiggle room, that doesn’t leave Boston with much room if the team hopes to remain south of the top luxury tax penalization bracket.

Of course, there’s also no real reason that the Red Sox should need to remain below that threshold unless ownership makes the curious decision to mandate doing so. The Sox are entering their final season of control over Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts, and they could see J.D. Martinez opt out of his contract next winter as well. There’s every reason for Boston to put the pedal to the proverbial metal in this instance, even if doing so means taking a hit in the draft for a second consecutive season. (The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that exceeding the luxury threshold by more than $40MM will drop a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 spots in addition to a 45 percent luxury tax on any dollars over $246MM.)

Perhaps the Sox will find an intriguing option on the trade market or make a shrewd investment or two in the lower tiers of the free-agent market for relievers once the market dries up a bit, but it’s nevertheless puzzling that a team that is so heavily invested in every other area of the roster isn’t taking a more aggressive approach when striving to replace its two most prominent relievers. Of course, it’s also possible that Dombrowski’s comments not only reflect some real hesitation, but also represent an effort to shore up his leverage in negotiations with potential signees.

Fallout From David Robertson Signing

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David Robertson chose an unconventional path this offseason as a self-represented free agent, and as a right-hander who holds lefties to a .186/.268/.278 mark, he’s unconventional on the bump as well. It’s not surprising to hear, then, that Gabe Kapler’s plan to deploy him whenever the biggest outs are needed suits him just fine. Unconventional he may be, but he is also a modern reliever in every sense, from his ability to neutralize hitters from both sides of the plate, to his durability in multi-inning outings (23 such appearances since 2017), to his ability to miss bats (11.97 K/9 for his career). Despite the robust resume, Robertson isn’t worried about being used in a traditional closer’s role, so long as he gets important outs on the back-end, writes Scott Lauber of Philadelphia Inquirer. For the Phillies, that makes him a perfect fit in a bullpen that has a few guys capable of locking down the ninth. Per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris figure to share in those closing responsibilities with Robertson, giving second-year skipper Gabe Kapler the freedom to let situations dictate his bullpen management more so than strict role assignments. Dominguez, 24, slowed in the second half of his rookie campaign but showed tremendous promise overall recording 16 saves and a 2.93 ERA, while Neris, 29, saved 11 games last year while striking out a ridiculous 14.3 batters per nine innings. Neris has earned 39 saves over the last three seasons in Philadelphia. Robertson’s signing reverberates beyond just the ninth inning…

  • Kapler’s ongoing modernization of the Philly bullpen makes Craig Kimbrel a somewhat odd fit, considering he is one of the few tried-and-true closers left in the MLB. Where Kimbrel does fit (besides previous Boston or Atlanta), however, is entirely (and unjustifiably) unclear, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Kimbrel’s case is yet another example of the widening gap between players and teams as front offices become increasingly wary of age decline while focusing their efforts (and their payrolls) on value spending. He may not be worth the 6-year, $100MM commitment reported to be the starting ask, but there ought to be more interest for a 30-year-old closer with a proven track record (1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.16 xFIP) that is supported by underlying success (14.67 K/9 to 3.46 BB/9, 0.59 HR/9).
  • With Robertson in hand and seven out-of-options relievers on their 40-man roster, thinning a now-overcrowded bullpen is next on Philadelphia’s offseason docket, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Veterans Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter could be the odd men out if the Phils can find a trade partner. Along with the power trio of Robertson, Dominguez, and Neris, recent offseason acquisitions Juan Nicasio (from the Mariners) and Jose Alvarez (from the Angels) would seem to be locks for the pen on Opening Day. Hunter, specifically, was acquired because of his reverse-split ability to retire left-handers, which could now make him vulnerable given Robertson’s skills in the same area. Alvarez, projected to make only $1.7MM this year, would be the easiest to flip, but they probably prefer to move one of their higher-priced expirings like Hunter ($9MM), Nicasio ($9.25MM) or Neshek, who is guaranteed $8.5MM including a buyout for 2020.
  • Unless the price for Dallas Keuchel drops significantly, the Phillies seem done shopping for arms, at least until midseason, per Gelb. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta head the Philly rotation, but GM Matt Klentak believes in the high floor provided by the depth behind those two, both at the major league level and in Triple A. Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin round out the rotation, but the renewed health of Jerad Eickhoff provides further flexibility should one of the above trio stumble. Regardless, the Phillies like their current group, and any upgrade would need to be significant. Patrick Corbin provided that kind of upside, but with the former Dback now in Washington, there doesn’t appear to be another available starter the Phils deem worthy of a significant acquisition cost. The next few weeks of free agent hunting figure to focus on the big fish, after which offensive plan B’s or even a reengagement on Kimbrel would likely take precedence over adding another starter.

Bullpen Rumors/Notes: Kimbrel, Red Sox, Phillies, Warren, Wilson, Mets, Angels

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Some more rumblings on the market for relievers…

  • Prior to this afternoon’s agreement between the Phillies and righty David Robertson, WEEI’s Rob Bradford offered a bit of clarity on the market for Craig Kimbrel. As of this morning, the star closer’s market “seemed to hinge” on whether or not the Phillies would be able to secure the services of either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Either signing, it seemed, would move Kimbrel off the table for Philadelphia, though today’s inking of Robertson may have done just that. Boston, then, seems a clear favorite for the 30-year-old fireballer, with Atlanta still lurking at the fringes, but the “stupid-money”-wielding Fightins can’t entirely be ruled out.
  • The Mets have some interest in right-hander Adam Warren, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), but a match between the two sides doesn’t appear to be that likely at the moment. Warren, according to Martino, has stronger interest from other clubs, and the Mets are exploring several different bullpen options, including left-hander Justin Wilson. The 31-year-old Warren has a 2.72 ERA in 109 innings across the past two seasons and is accustomed to pitching in multi-inning stints in relief, thus making him an appealing option for many clubs. Wilson, meanwhile, has posted solid ERA marks and huge strikeout totals over the past couple of seasons but has seen his control of the strike zone completely evaporate (5.43 BB/9).
  • Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Angels “prefer” to assemble bullpen pieces of the low-cost variety. With hardly a household name in the bunch, early-offseason speculation abounded with respect to Los Angeles and top-market pen arms, but signings of the type don’t appear to be in the cards for Billy Eppler and crew this offseason. Top 2018 perfomer Jose Alvarez has already been shipped to Philadelphia, so the Angels will likely rely on some assortment of Taylor Cole, Luis Garcia, Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles, Cam Bedrosian, and Justin Anderson (all of whom, save for Robles during his stint with the Mets, excelled at limiting the homer last season) to hold down the team’s fort in the late innings.

NL Notes & Rumors: Nats, Marwin, Jed, Pads, Fish, J.T., Braves, D-backs

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Free agents Marwin Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie are among several second basemen the Nationals have reached out to this offseason, Jamal Collier of MLB.com reports. The open market remains rife with familiar second basemen as the New Year approaches, though Gonzalez and Lowrie are likely the two best choices available. Both Gonzalez and Lowrie are accomplished switch-hitters, but the former is easily the more versatile of the two in the field. Gonzalez is capable of lining up everywhere in the infield and in both corner outfield positions. The Nationals, of course, will take a hit in the corner outfield if free agent Bryce Harper signs elsewhere, so Gonzalez would give them some more depth in the grass.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Padres, who are known to be in the hunt for the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, have shown more persistence than any other team in talks for the catcher, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. With two years of control left and Miami nowhere near contention, Realmuto could be the most obvious trade candidate in the game. However, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price in order for a deal to come together prior to next season. They’re said to want a return consisting of at least one elite prospect, and the Padres happen to boast baseball’s top-ranked farm system, per both Baseball America and FanGraphs. So, if the Padres are truly motivated to land Realmuto, they may be in better position than anyone else. That said, San Diego would not be a popular bet to contend in 2019 even with Realmuto, making it highly debatable whether the team should rob from its system in a win-now trade.
  • Given the needs in the Braves’ corner outfield and pitching staff, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that they and the Diamondbacks could be logical trade partners. Outfielder David Peralta, left-hander Robbie Ray and righty Zack Greinke may all be fits for the Braves, O’Brien posits, though he notes the Diamondbacks would have to eat a significant portion of the $95.5MM left on Greinke’s contract to make him a realistic possibility for Atlanta. There are no weighty financial obligations for either Peralta or Ray, who are each under affordable arbitration control through 2020. The Braves have already come up short in an attempt to acquire Peralta this offseason, though, and the D-backs don’t seem willing to part with Ray.
  • Sticking with the Braves, they may pursue free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel if he becomes willing to accept a three-year offer, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. That looks rather unlikely, however, considering Kimbrel’s current asking price reportedly ranges anywhere from $86MM to upward of $100M. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see the Braves in the race for Kimbrel, whom they drafted in 2008 and helped develop into one of the greatest closers ever. Kimbrel, now 30, was a Brave from 2010-14 before moving on to the Padres and Red Sox.

Pitcher Notes: Minor, Mets, Phils, Kimbrel, Cards, Hand, Astros

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The Mets and Phillies are among the teams that have gone after Rangers left-hander Mike Minor this offseason, though the former is on his 10-team no-trade list, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). It may be a moot point anyway, as the Mets’ pursuit of Minor has reportedly “stalled” because of the Rangers’ asking price. The Phillies, meanwhile, would give Minor a chance to win a starting job in the spring, according to Zolecki, though he adds that they also like his ability to work out of the bullpen. If the Phillies miss out on free agent Zach Britton, whom they’ve been chasing throughout the offseason, they could acquire Minor and use him to fill their need for a left-handed reliever.

  • Whether the Phillies will add another righty to their bullpen is up in the air, but it won’t be free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel unless his price comes down, Zolecki reports. However, if Kimbrel sits on the market for a while longer and becomes more willing to accepting a three- or four-year offer, it’s possible the Phillies could strike, Zolecki suggests. That’s what happened last offseason when they reeled in starter Jake Arrieta on a three-year, $75MM pact – far lower than what he wanted entering the winter – a few weeks before he 2018 campaign started.
  • In signing southpaw Andrew Miller on Friday, the Cardinals fulfilled their desire to pick up a lefty reliever this winter. Before nabbing Miller, though, they contacted the Indians regarding Brad Hand, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The Indians’ asking price for Hand was presumably too high, however, given his star-level production from 2016-18, team-friendly contract and what they surrendered for him last July. Just five months ago, Cleveland sent elite prospect Francisco Mejia to San Diego for Hand and fellow reliever Adam Cimber.
  • Don’t expect the Astros to look for a reliever in response to righty Joe Smith’s injury, according to president Jeff Luhnow (via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). “Losing Joe is a blow, but I don’t think it requires us to go out and get another late-inning reliever. We’re going to have enough good arms in the bullpen to do what we need to do,” Luhnow said regarding Smith, who will miss six to eight months after undergoing surgery to repair a ruptured left Achilles. Luhnow’s stance is understandable – even with Smith on the shelf, Houston’s bullpen will continue to boast a slew of proven righties in Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Ryan Pressly, Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Brad Peacock.

Heyman’s Latest: Yanks, Andujar, Padres, Kimbrel, BoSox, Reds, Fish, J.T., Mets

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Third base help is reportedly atop the Padres’ wish list, and the Yankees’ Miguel Andujar is among their targets, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred. The Padres “love” the 23-year-old, per Heyman, but it’s unclear whether they’ve made a legitimate attempt to acquire him. Although he turned in a near-AL Rookie of the Year season in 2018, in which he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs in 606 plate appearances, Andujar struggled mightily as a defender. While Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has consistently praised Andujar and brushed off concerns about his defense, the player has nonetheless been a prominent part of the rumor mill this winter. If the Yankees do move Andujar, whom they could replace with free-agent superstar Manny Machado, it’s fair to surmise it’ll be for a player(s) capable of immediately upgrading the title contenders’ roster.

Here’s more from Heyman’s latest smorgasbord of notes:

  • Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel was reportedly seeking a $100MM-plus contract as of earlier this month, though it’s “believed” he has dropped his price, Heyman writes. According to Heyman, the 30-year-old Kimbrel has gone down to $86MM – the same value of the five-year deal the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Chapman’s contract remains the richest ever for a reliever, and given Kimbrel’s production to date, it’s unsurprising he’s aiming to match or exceed it. Also unsurprising: Kimbrel’s price is still too rich for the Red Sox’s blood, Heyman hears, suggesting they may be willing to go to four years and $60MM to $70MM.
  • The Reds made right-hander Lance Lynn an offer when he was on the market, Heyman relays. However, they didn’t come close to signing Lynn, who joined the Rangers on a three-year, $30MM guarantee on Dec. 18. The Reds addressed their rotation prior to then by acquiring Tanner Roark from the Nationals and did so again Friday, picking up Alex Wood from the Dodgers. The club has also pursued Yankees righty Sonny Gray this offseason, but New York’s seeking Double-A and Triple-A pitchers Cincinnati doesn’t want to trade, per Heyman. Meanwhile, in Cincy’s talks with Miami regarding star catcher J.T. Realmuto, Heyman writes that the Marlins’ focus has been on Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell, Hunter Greene and Jonathan India – the Reds’ top four prospects at MLB.com.
  • Mets righty Seth Lugo has changed representation and hired the Ballengee Group, Heyman reports. The 29-year-old Lugo, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter, was a rare bright spot for the Mets’ bullpen in 2018. Across 101 1/3 innings (78 1/3 in relief), Lugo managed a 2.66 ERA with 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 and a 46.5 percent groundball rate.

Relief Market Rumors: Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Smith, Watson, Giants

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Though Craig Kimbrel was at one point said to be seeking a six-year contract worth as much as $100MM, Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column that the asking price on Kimbrel has come down a bit. Kimbrel’s camp, however, is still eyeing a contract along the lines of the $86MM and $80MM contracts signed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen two offseasons ago. Given Kimbrel’s track record of elite performance, it’s not exactly surprising to see him aiming for a potentially record-setting deal, though it’s important to note that both Chapman and Jansen were younger than Kimbrel when signing those deals more than two years ago. Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen, which will likely make it difficult for him to secure a contract of that length and total guarantee. The market for Kimbrel remains somewhat undefined, though the Red Sox have some degree of interest in retaining him; Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston is waiting to see what happens with Kimbrel before taking action on the relief market. Heyman, however, notes that the current asking price is still deemed too high by the Red Sox front office.

Some other notes on the market for relievers…

  • Heyman notes that the Red Sox also have interest in David Robertson, though their preference would be to limit a Robertson signing to two years, while the veteran righty is believed to be aiming for a three-year pact. Robertson, 34 in April, is representing himself in free agency this winter and has been connected to both the Dodgers and Mets in recent weeks. Robertson, who has split his career between the Yankees and White Sox, has pitched at least 60 innings and made at least 60 appearances in each of the past nine seasons and is fresh off a 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 69 2/3 innings in 2018.
  • With Andrew Miller reportedly on the verge of a contract with the Cardinals, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets that the Phillies’ search for a left-handed reliever in free agency could be down to “Zach Britton or bust,” noting that Britton has numerous teams with serious interest in his services. The Phils were in on both Miller and Britton, with NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reporting last week that the team was “strongly” in the mix for Miller. Britton is, of course, quite familiar to Phillies brass, as president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak and assistant GM Ned Rice were all in the Orioles’ front office when Britton was drafted and developed. The trade market could certainly present alternatives, though there’s no one with the track record of either Miller or Britton known to be available.
  • Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Miller’s impending deal with the Cardinals will have ramifications for the Giants as well. San Francisco has been waiting for Miller, Britton and others to sign before marketing their own left-handed relievers (i.e. Will Smith, Tony Watson). There are numerous hopeful contenders in need of left-handed relief help, and both Smith and Watson are coming off strong 2018 showings. Smith, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.1MM in 2019, will be a free agent again next offseason. Watson, meanwhile, is signed to a guaranteed $3.5MM salary for the 2019 season and is owed at least a $500K buyout on a player option for the 2020 season. Of course, if Watson replicates his excellent 2018 production, he’ll surely turn down that option in favor of a return to free agency. And, if he struggles through a poor season or is injured, he’ll quite likely take that option for the 2020 campaign.
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