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Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Market Chatter: Realmuto, Keuchel, Indians, Castellanos, Ross

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The on-again, off-again chatter surrounding the Braves and Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has left an uncertain situation. While the Atlanta organization already seems to have a palatable situation behind the dish, with Brian McCann rejoining the org to pair with Tyler Flowers, it’s also one that is susceptible of improvement. In any event, the stalemate seemingly continues, though Craig Mish of MLB Network does tweet that the teams have been in contact of late regarding Realmuto. It’s far from clear that any progress has been made, though, as he says the Braves “appear to be waiting [the] Marlins out.” The Rays also “remain a possibility,” says Mish, though at this point it’s really anyone’s guess how things will turn out with regard to Realmuto, who’s a valuable enough asset that any number of other teams could conceivably still enter the picture or circle back if other offseason pursuits don’t pan out.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • The Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sagas are holding up the markets for many remaining free agents, even left-hander Dallas Keuchel, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (video link). Rosenthal suggested on MLBN’s Hot Stove this morning that Keuchel is waiting to see where the market’s top two free agents land, presumably knowing that a suitor who misses out on Harper or Machado will have money to spend elsewhere. The Phillies, for instance, have been connected to all three players, so it’s not all that difficult to see them making a more serious run at Keuchel should their top two targets sign elsewhere.
  • Another would-be blockbuster situation that may now be fizzling is the Indians’ oft-discussed negotiations on top starters Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer discusses the situation, suggesting it may be time for the Cleveland organization to ask for final offers and otherwise move on from the marketing process. Of course, it’s far from clear that the team is taking that stance. And as Hoynes goes on to discuss, it’s also still not apparent how (or even if) the Indians will go about improving a roster that looks quite a bit different than it did just a few months ago. It’s still possible that Cleveland could add an outfielder from the free-agent market, but there’s no indication that they’re in line to make a significant splash on that front.
  • Meanwhile, talks between the Braves and the Tigers regarding outfielder Nicholas Castellanos have gone nowhere since the two sides talked at last month’s Winter Meetings, Morosi tweets. The Braves are, of course, still looking far and wide for a corner outfielder and are “active” in their pursuit of that key need. With many options seemingly still on the table, though, the club appears to be content not to push hard for any particular player, which might increase the acquisition cost.
  • Veteran southpaw Robbie Ross is preparing to throw for scouts in mid-January as he looks for a new opportunity, MLBTR has learned. Ross spent time with the White Sox organization in 2018, but struggled with his command as he worked back to health following back surgery in August of 2017. He’s now said to be at full strength, though he’ll certainly need to show that to the talent evaluators who take a look. The 29-year-old has generally been quite effective as a big-league reliever, with a 3.52 ERA in 270 2/3 career innings in that capacity.

Rosenthal’s Latest: BoSox, JBJ, Mets, Grandal, D. Holland, A’s, Anibal, Astros, Keuchel

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Of the pricey veterans the Red Sox reportedly considered trading last month, they “pushed” center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. harder than anyone else, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears (subscription required). However, the Red Sox couldn’t find a deal to their liking for JBJ, Rosenthal notes. The Diamondbacks were the only team publicly connected to Bradley around that time, though there were conflicting reports about whether they were truly interested in him. As of now, it seems the soon-to-be 29-year-old Bradley will once again man center in Boston in 2019, his second-last second of arbitration eligibility. Bradley will make a projected $7.9MM during the upcoming season.

Here’s more from Rosenthal:

  • The report that free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal rejected a four-year, $60MM proposal from the Mets earlier this winter is “essentially accurate,” Rosenthal writes. While the Mets didn’t submit a formal offer to Grandal, the two sides did discuss a deal in the $55MM to $60MM neighborhood, per Rosenthal, who adds the 30-year-old was aiming for a contract worth closer to $65MM. The Mets balked at Grandal’s request, though, and then signed the No. 2 catcher available, Wilson Ramos. There’s now “doubt” Grandal’s next contract will approach what the Mets were willing to give him, Rosenthal relays.
  • More from Rosenthal on the Mets, who – in need of starting depth – are considering left-hander Derek Holland and righty Josh Tomlin in free agency. Holland easily had the stronger year of the two in 2018, which figures to make him the more difficult hurler to sign. He should be able to net a major league contract this winter, whereas the Mets are hoping to land someone on a non-guaranteed pact, Rosenthal reports. With that in mind, Tomlin may be a more realistic option, as he endured a miserable 2018 with the Indians. However, the 34-year-old was successful at times from 2014-17 under ex-Tribe pitching coach and current Mets manager Mickey Callaway.
  • Before righty Anibal Sanchez signed a two-year, $19MM guarantee with the Nationals last month, the Athletics made him a three-year offer, according to Rosenthal. It’s unclear how much the A’s were willing to pay Sanchez, but Rosenthal points out that the proximity of Washington, D.C., to the the 34-year-old’s South Florida home helped tip the scale in the Nationals’ favor. Further, the Nats train in West Palm Beach, Fla., while the A’s are headquartered in Mesa, Ariz. Based on his bounce-back 2018 in Atlanta, Sanchez would’ve provided a much-needed upgrade in Oakland, which hasn’t improved its rotation this offseason.
  • Southpaw Dallas Keuchel stands as the most decorated starter remaining on the open market, but if the Astros had their way, he wouldn’t be available. The Astros offered Keuchel a five-year, $90MM extension early in the 2016 campaign, but he turned it down, according to Rosenthal. At that point, Keuchel was a 28-year-old coming off an AL Cy Young-winning season. Now 31, Keuchel hasn’t been quite as effective since his career-best campaign, though he remains an above-average starter and should rake in a high-paying multiyear deal before the offseason is out. Having made $22.35MM in salaries since he rejected the Astros’ offer, Keuchel will need to sign for $67.65MM as a free agent in order to match what Houston offered him, Rosenthal notes.

AL Notes/Rumors: Realmuto, Astros, Keuchel, Orioles, A. Jones

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The latest from the Junior Circuit . . .

  • The Marlins’ asking price for J.T. Realmuto has put off many a suitor, but the Astros are “still interested,” reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Per Morosi, the Fish are still insisting on one of either Forrest Whitley or outfielder Kyle Tucker, each near-consensus top-1o prospects, to headline the deal, so there’s been “no traction” in discussions. To say Whitley, 21, is drawing rave reviews in scouting circles would be to critically undersell the case – the 6’7 Texan is described by some scouts, per Baseball America, as the “best [pitching prospect] they’ve ever seen,” and has done little to discredit that view (aside, perhaps, from a 50-game suspension in early 2018 for a supposed positive banned-stimulant test) in his ascent through the system. Tucker has earned some detractors with his unorthodox swing and supposed nonchalance on the field, but he dominated (.332/.400/.590) the AAA-Pacific Coast League at age 21 and slots even higher than Whitley on some major-publication rankings. GM Jeff Luhnow, in the past, has been reluctant to deal from the cream of his system, though he did splurge in 2015’s deal for Carlos Gomez, departing with top-50 prospect Brett Phillips, top-100 Domingo Santana, and 2018 All-Star Josh Hader in the trade. Still, there is nothing close to precedent in the current Houston regime for a move of this scale.
  • In a video segment for MLB Tonight, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart addressed the likelihood of Houston reuniting with free agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, calling the chances “slim.” Houston, apparently, has balked at the desired length of a proposed deal from Keuchel’s camp, but McTaggart believes the club could circle back if it hasn’t acquired a rotation piece by “late January.” As of yesterday, Keuchel was still believed to be seeking a deal of five years in length, and the many teams interested were far less so when broached with those demands. The Astros, with a righty-heavy, thin-back-end rotation, could certainly use their former ace, but with dual rotation-headliners Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole set to hit free agency after next season, the club may be stashing its funds in preparation.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports paints a bleak portrait of Adam Jones’ future with the Orioles, noting in a Friday mailbag that Jones’ likely earning power on the market is “more than the Orioles would give him.” Jones, 33, spent 11 seasons with the club, amassing an excellent 29.4 fWAR over the frame. His production – and in particular, his defense – has steadily waned in recent years, cratering with a dismal -18 DRS in center field last season. Jones’ days at the position are likely finished, though he may yet have value to add in a corner spot – the five-time all-star, after all, still projects around league-average next season, per Steamer, and has kept his strikeout rate low in the dawn of the swing-and-miss age.

Dallas Keuchel Still Seeking Five-Year Deal

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Dallas Keuchel is the top remaining starter on the free-agent market, and though the New Year is nearly upon us, he and agent Scott Boras are still seeking a lofty five-year contract, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phillies, according to Morosi, have been in pursuit of Keuchel but aren’t willing to offer him a five-year deal. Two weeks ago, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com had a similar report regarding the Nationals’ interest in Keuchel, writing at the time that the Nats were “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”

Perhaps the notion of a six-year deal has fallen to the wayside, but even a five-year pact for Keuchel would represent somewhat of a surprise. MLBTR predicted a four-year deal worth $82MM at the outset of free agency, and to this point there are more reports of teams being wary regarding his asking price than of those strongly pursuing the 2015 AL Cy Young winner. Beyond the Phillies and Nationals, the Reds have also been prominently connected to Keuchel, but recent indications are that they’d be reluctant to meet his asking price. The fact that Cincinnati has already added both Alex Wood and Tanner Roark likely lessens their urgency to add a high-profile free agent, as well.

In addition to those three teams, Keuchel has been tied to the Angels, Brewers, Rangers and Padres over the past couple of weeks. He was also linked to the Braves and Blue Jays earlier in the offseason, although those reports were contested fairly quickly.

The Phillies, though, have been previously tied to Keuchel, and it seems there’s still some interest on their part if the asking price eventually comes down. In many ways, it’s a scenario reminiscent of last winter’s Jake Arrieta saga, in which the Phillies were frequently connected to the right-hander (also a Scott Boras client) throughout the winter but only agreed to terms with Arrieta once his asking price dropped to three guaranteed years. Keuchel is a year younger now than Arrieta was last winter, so speculatively speaking, perhaps they’d be a willing to bring in Keuchel on a four-year term — thus guaranteeing his salaries through age 34, just as they did with Arrieta.

While much of the Phillies’ offseason has centered around Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, upgrading the rotation is nonetheless a priority for GM Matt Klentak (as evidenced by Philadelphia’s unsuccessful pursuit of Corbin). Right-hander Aaron Nola broke out as a legitimate No. 1 starter and finished third in NL Cy Young voting this past season, and Arrieta gives the Phillies a solid veteran to follow him in the rotation. Beyond that pairing, the trio of Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez has shown promise at times but still lacks experience. There’s also been longstanding speculation that Velasquez’s eventual home may be in the bullpen rather than the rotation.

NL Central Notes: Goldschmidt, Graveman, Reds, Santana

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Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cardinals believe they have a sense of what it would take to extend recently acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as well as the ability to make a “strong, market-right offer” to the slugger. A five-year extension offer from the team “would look something like five-years, $150 million,” per Goold, who suggests that it’s possible that the Cards could tweak an offer to technically be for six years and subsequently include a bump in Goldschmidt’s 2019 salary. All of that, of course, depends on how comfortable Goldschmidt is in betting on himself, how strongly he wants to test free agency and how he takes to his new environs in St. Louis. And, it should also be emphasized, it does not appear that any formal offer has been made at this point. The suggested terms would align closely with the $151MM extension signed by Jose Altuve in Houston last offseason, although Altuve’s new contract begins in his age-30 season, while any deal extending St. Louis’ control of the already 31-year-old Goldschmidt would begin in his age-32 campaign.

More from the division…

  • Newly signed Cubs right-hander Kendall Graveman isn’t likely to pitch in 2019 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but as he explained in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), he’s viewing the rehab process as an opportunity to learn from an experienced Cubs rotation and a progressive, young coaching staff. “That’s something I don’t take for granted,” said Graveman of being a teammate of pitchers like Cole Hamels, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks. “I’m going to be in an organization that has got a lot of experience at not only at the big league level but in playoffs, and I think that excites me. It’s something that, while I’m not performing on the mound, I can be a student of the game and learn under these guys. … What they’re going to be able to teach me during this process of not pitching, is something that, almost, you can’t get while you’re pitching.”
  • The Reds have already added a pair of starters to their rotation, picking up a pair of one-year rentals in the form of Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, but MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes in his latest Inbox column that the team has “made it clear” that it hopes to continue making additions. However, while Cincinnati has been connected to Dallas Keuchel, the top remaining free-agent lefty on the market, Sheldon suggests that the Reds will be “very careful and likely hesitant” when it comes to taking a risk of that magnitude. Keuchel’s asking price has been reported to be as high as six years, and MLBTR predicted a four-year, $82MM contract for the former AL Cy Young winner at the outset of free agency.
  • Last week’s trade of Domingo Santana to the Mariners was in part motivated by the fact that he’s out of minor league options, Brewers general manager David Stearns told reporters following the swap (link via Todd Rosiak and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Ben Gamel, acquired from Seattle in the deal, can still be optioned freely for another season. Milwaukee likely could’ve received more in return for Santana had he been traded last offseason, when he was coming off a stronger year and had more team control remaining. Stearns, however, didn’t express regret over not trading Santana last winter. “I don’t know if our evaluation of Domingo ever wavered from being a really talented player,” said the GM. “…[W]e brought in some really talented outfielders last year and Domingo got off to a slow start, and never really recovered to regain significant playing time at the major-league level. … We do think Domingo is a really talented player and a true professional. I think he’s going to do well in Seattle.”

Angels, Brewers, Rangers Reportedly Interested In Dallas Keuchel

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The Angels, Brewers and Rangers join the previously reported Phillies as a few of the teams with interest in free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

As a onetime American League Cy Young winner (2015) who ranks among the majors’ top 20 starters in ERA (3.28) and fWAR (18.2) since his breakout 2014 season, Keuchel entered the winter as the most accomplished rotation piece available. Nevertheless, the soon-to-be 31-year-old has gone without a contract for nearly two months, and has watched several other starters – including newly minted $100MM man Patrick Corbin – ink lucrative pacts.

Both Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are partly responsible for the hurler’s unemployed status, of course, as they’re reportedly seeking a five- to six-year deal worth big money. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $82MM pact for Keuchel, who, as a qualifying offer recipient, would cost a team more than just a major chunk of cash. Because Keuchel rejected the Astros’ QO, both the Angels and Rangers would give up their second-highest 2019 draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool space to sign him. The Brewers would face a lesser penalty, though, as they’d only have to surrender their third-highest draft choice.

Among Los Angeles, Milwaukee and Texas, the Brewers are arguably the best fit on paper for Keuchel. Milwaukee came within a game of a World Series berth in 2018, but it did so in spite of an uninspiring-looking rotation – one that has since seen Wade Miley reach free agency after a surprisingly effective campaign. The problem is that the Brewers might not have the payroll room to make a headline-grabbing splash on the open market. Meanwhile, having already added starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill in free agency, the Angels may be done addressing their rotation this winter, as Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com suggested Thursday. And the Rangers, unlike the Brewers and Angels, are in a rebuild and aren’t targeting a playoff berth in 2019. As such, even though their rotation is in dire need of help, it may not make sense for the Rangers to fervently pursue a high-priced starter – excluding Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi, 27 – over the next year or two.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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A year ago on this date, only one of the top ten names on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2017-18 offseason had decided on their team for the upcoming season.  That player, in fact, wasn’t technically even a free agent at all — Masahiro Tanaka decided against opting out of his contract with the Yankees, thus avoiding the open market altogether.

So, at least in comparison to the uniquely slow pace of last year’s offseason, we’ve already seen quite a bit of action on the free agent front this winter.  After today’s news of Wilson Ramos’ deal with the Mets, seven of the top 25 players in this year’s top 50 ranking have already reached agreements, including three members of the top ten — Patrick Corbin (#3) signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi (#7) re-signed with the Red Sox, and J.A. Happ (#9) has reportedly agreed to rejoin the Yankees.

There have been a lot of rumors swirling around the remaining seven players in our top ten, and it’s anyone guess as to which will be the next to sign.  Let’s take a look at where things reportedly stand with each member of this septet….

Bryce Harper: With Harper and agent Scott Boras reportedly looking for nothing less than the biggest contract in baseball history, it would admittedly be surprising to see the former Nationals outfielder come off the board next.  Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras has reportedly held court with multiple teams in private meetings in Las Vegas, though the specific identities of these teams isn’t yet clear.  Teams like the Dodgers, White Sox, Phillies, and Cardinals are known to have some level of interest in Harper’s services, while we’ve also heard some teams (like the Nationals and Yankees) seemingly count themselves out of “Harper’s Bazaar,” as Boras calls it.  Speculative fits like the Cubs or Giants could also be out due to budget constraints.  Boras has a penchant for waiting until deep into the offseason to find a satisfactory contract for his clients, so I’d guess that we won’t know the identity of Harper’s next team before 2018 is over.

Manny Machado: The star infielder is set for in-person meetings with the White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and at least one more team this week.  It’s impossible to mention Machado’s free agency without also mentioning Harper, as the two share many of the same suitors and it seems highly unlikely that one team would be willing to spend big enough to add both to the same roster.  Machado’s controversial history of overly-aggressive (or, as some might say, outright dirty) play has been a factor in his market, as was his October interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about his admitted lack of maximum effort on some plays, and his admission that “I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle.’ ”  While questions about Machado’s personality are legitimate, especially as he is looking for a record-breaking contract, it’s also possible some teams are using Machado’s interview as leverage to try and lower his price tag.  We should know more about Machado’s status once these in-person meetings are complete, and if a team’s concerns about his work ethic are erased after a face-to-face meetings, it isn’t impossible that a signing could come before Christmas.

Dallas Keuchel: Another Boras client, Keuchel might not have quite as long a wait on the market since there has already been something of a run on free agent starting pitching, as Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, and Charlie Morton have all found new teams.  On the trade front, there now seems to be less chance that the Indians could deal Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while the Mets’ flurry of acquisitions have made a Noah Syndergaard trade less likely.  Teams that missed out on these frontline arms may now be willing to meet Keuchel’s hefty asking price, and give up the draft pick compensation necessary to sign the lefty since he rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer.  Teams like the Reds, Braves, Padres, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Nationals have all been reported to have varying levels of Keuchel’s services.

Craig Kimbrel: Teams would also need to surrender a draft to sign Kimbrel since he turned down a QO from the Red Sox, and might also have to fork over the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  A big initial ask is a common negotiating tactic, of course, though even at a lower amount, Kimbrel and his representatives clearly see him worthy of a deal akin to Aroldis Chapman/Kenley Jansen money.  The Cardinals and Phillies have both been linked to Kimbrel, and the Red Sox may or may not still be in on their former closer.  The recent signings of Jeurys Familiar and Joe Kelly indicate that the bullpen market is starting to move, though Kimbrel is obviously in a higher financial level than those types of contracts.

Yasmani Grandal: The Angels, Astros, and White Sox have all been linked to Grandal, though Houston might be out of the catching market after signing Robinson Chirinos.  Chicago also recently added James McCann, though that isn’t quite as significant an obstacle to a future move for Grandal, should the Sox deal Welington Castillo and then install Grandal as the starter ahead of McCann.  Even before Ramos became a Met, Grandal’s biggest competition has likely been J.T. Realmuto, though teams have thus far balked at meeting the Marlins’ large asking price in a trade.  The Mets are one team that decided to simply sign a quality catcher rather than trade for Realmuto, and another backstop-needy team could do the same by inking Grandal, though he’s another QO free agent.  There has been some indication that the Marlins could decide by Christmas whether to keep or trade Realmuto, so once that decision is made either way, Grandal’s market will gain some clarity.

A.J. Pollock: Here’s another player who turned down a qualifying offer, and another with a pricey contract demand (reportedly in the $80MM range).  The Mets, Braves, Reds, and Astros are known to have interest in Pollock, plus with so many trade rumors swirling around other outfielders, more suitors could easily emerge as more outfield spots are created.

Michael Brantley: Machado and Brantley are the only two of these seven players who don’t have QO compensation tied to their services, which gives Brantley in particular a boost as he tests free agency for the first time in his career.  Furthermore, Brantley also appears willing to try playing first base, which adds a bit of extra versatility to his repertoire for any interested teams, even if Brantley would still primarily play as an outfielder.  What could dampen enthusiasm, however, is Brantley’s initial asking price, reportedly something akin to a $20MM average annual value over three years.  We’ve already heard that the Braves aren’t meeting that price, and other Brantley suitors like the Astros, Cardinals, and White Sox are also sure to aim for a lower number.

(poll link for app users)

Padres Showing Interest In Dallas Keuchel

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The Padres are interested in veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). That said, in a subsequent report, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell characterizes the level of interest as “pretty low.” (Twitter link.)

The San Diego organization has reportedly been searching for a higher-end starter all winter, but has yet to find a match. Keuchel, who’s closing in on his 31st birthday, is said to be looking for serious coin in free agency. It’s not yet known precisely what kind of average salary Keuchel is seeking — it seems reasonable to guess it’s in the range of $20MM — but he’s reportedly hoping for a five or even six -year term.

The Friars aren’t interested at the current price tag, says Lin. That’s not surprising to hear, as it’s frankly hard to imagine any team going well north of $100MM to land Keuchel. While he was outstanding in 2017 and (especially) 2015, Keuchel struggled in 2016 and was more good than great last year. With drops in his rates of swinging strikes (8.3%) and groundballs (53.7%) in 2018, there’s at least some cause for trepidation.

That being said, Keuchel still looks to be a high-quality rotation piece who’d improve any team. It helps that he nudged back over 200 frames last season, seemingly putting some prior shoulder and neck issues in the rearview mirror.

Still, it’s good for Keuchel to have another participant in his market. The Nats are reportedly involved to some extent, as are the Reds, Phillies, Blue Jays, and perhaps the Braves. While the Pads may not seem to be a likely landing spot at first glance, they did land Eric Hosmer (another Scott Boras client) last winter and have made clear they’re interested in beginning to make tangible progress at the MLB level.

Nationals “Leery” Of Asking Price On Dallas Keuchel

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The Nationals’ trade of right-hander Tanner Roark again puts Joe Ross and Erick Fedde atop the team’s list of options in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, meaning they’ll once again be on the hunt for starters. To that end, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that the Nats have interest in top lefty Dallas Keuchel but are “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”

That’s the first word on the asking price for Keuchel, and it’s a fairly steep one, as most would expect. Of course, early asking prices are always going to be high — typically higher than the eventual landing point. If agent Scott Boras and Keuchel are ultimately seeking four to five years, for instance, it’s only natural to see them set out asking for five to six years. MLBTR estimated a four-year, $82MM deal for Keuchel at the outset of free agency, and a recent reader poll saw only about 15 percent of respondents believe a five-year pact was within reach.

Keuchel, 31 on New Year’s Day, is the top remaining starter in free agency but is one of several available pitchers to whom the Nationals have been linked since trading Roark. In the 48 hours since that swap, Washington has been tied to Yusei Kikuchi, Anibal Sanchez and Wade Miley. Keuchel would give the Nationals a virtually unparalleled top four alongside Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin but would also quite likely give the Nats an unheard of four starting pitchers with annual salaries in excess of $20MM. Like Corbin before him, Keuchel would cost the Nationals a pick in next year’s draft by virtue of the fact that he rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer.

As for those wondering about the wisdom behind trading Roark only to immediately search for a replacement, it’s possible that the organization simply felt Roark’s rising arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged him at $9.8MM — outpaced reasonable expectations for his performance in 2019. Roark’s strikeout, swinging-strike, home-run and ground-ball rates all went in the wrong direction in 2018, as did his velocity.

In the meantime, the Nats added a 100-mph arm, Tanner Rainey, in exchange for Roark’s final season of team control. While Rainey’s MLB cameo in 2018 was unequivocally brutal (19 runs on 13 hits and 12 walks with seven strikeouts in just seven innings), he also notched a 2.95 ERA with 13.5 K/9 across the past two minor league seasons. Walks were still an issue in the minors, though, as he averaged 5.4 free passes per nine innings pitched.

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