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Freddie Freeman

Yankees “Expected To Take A Run At” Signing Freddie Freeman

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The Yankees were known to have interest in former NL MVP Freddie Freeman prior to the lockout, and it appears as though that interest is more than just simple due diligence.  According to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), the Yankees “love” Freeman and “are expected to take a run at” landing the free agent once the transactions freeze is lifted.

Since it still seems unclear whether Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves or perhaps look to join another team, it stands to reason that the Yankees can’t be truly ruled out of a Freeman pursuit until he actually signs a contract elsewhere.  Or, conversely, unless the Yankees were to make another big first base acquisition like trading for Matt Olson, or perhaps re-signing Anthony Rizzo.

What would make a Freeman pursuit so intriguing for New York, however, is how it would run counter to how the Yankees have pursued their business this offseason.  Prior to the lockout, the Yankees didn’t really do much of anything, with the common thinking being that the Bronx Bombers were perhaps waiting to see the terms of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement before making any major financial commitments.  Under how the luxury tax is currently calculated, for example, the Yankees already have more than a $226MM number projected for 2022.  Barring a major bump in the luxury tax threshold, the Yankees would certainly surpass the tax line by adding Freeman to their payroll.

The salary forecast notwithstanding, the Yankees were at least linked to such big names as Freeman and some of the top free agent shortstops.  However, the team was reportedly planning to wait out the shortstop market until after the lockout, just in case any of the remaining names (now Carlos Correa and Trevor Story) could be had on a shorter-term deal.

Whereas the Yankees think so highly of shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza that they don’t want to acquire a positional roadblock, their first base situation is a little more crowded in the present.  Luke Voit is coming off an injury-plagued season but is still the incumbent at the position, with DJ LeMahieu also in the mix when he isn’t playing third base.  The infield picture additionally consists of Gleyber Torres as the everyday second baseman,  and Gio Urshela playing third and backing up at shortstop behind a new (stopgap) shortstop that will also be taking an every day role.  Giancarlo Stanton is still expected to get the bulk of DH time, though since Stanton will get some usage in the outfield, that will open up the DH spot for one of the infielders to get more playing time.

Despite all the notable names here, Voit, LeMahieu, Torres, and Urshela are all coming off underwhelming seasons, so New York can’t just count on everyone to bounce back.  Plus, a proven star like Freeman (even entering his age-32 season) represents such a big upgrade that the Yankees might just prefer to make the signing and then figure out how the pieces fit after the fact.  For instance, Voit would seem like the most obvious trade candidate in this scenario, as Voit could be dangled to a first base-needy team that either missed out on Freeman or couldn’t approach his asking price in the first place.

It’s possible the Yankees might also be hoping they can land Freeman at something of a discount price amidst the post-lockout signing frenzy, though that could be more of a difficult play.  Teams like the Blue Jays and Red Sox have also been linked to Freeman, the Dodgers and Angels have been noted as possible fits given Freeman’s SoCal roots, and there is still some sentiment that Freeman will ultimately remain with the Braves after all.  MLBTR projected Freeman to land a six-year, $180MM deal this winter, and the first baseman is reportedly indeed looking for a contract in that range, though Atlanta (and presumably other clubs) has been hesitant to offer a sixth guaranteed year.

Like Correa and Story, Freeman has draft pick compensation attached since he rejected the qualifying offer.  Freeman is five years older than Correa and a little over three years older than Story, plus first base is less of a premium position than shortstop — but it could be argued that Freeman in some ways a safer investment, given how consistent he has been over the last decade.  If a team doesn’t want to pay Correa a reported $330MM or make a big nine-figure investment in Story coming off a down year, Freeman may appeal more to a team like the Yankees, who have multiple promising shortstops in the pipeline.

Locking up Freeman on a long-term deal might also be something of a hedge on the Yankees’ part in regards to an Aaron Judge extension.  Judge is scheduled for free agency next winter, and he’ll be turning 31 in April 2023.  It could be that the Yankees think committing big money to a 32-year-old Freeman through his age-36 or -37 season is a wiser move than paying Judge even more money through his 30’s.  Freeman missed time in the 2015 and 2017 seasons due to wrist injuries, but has generally been a very durable player throughout his career.  Judge, meanwhile, missed big portions of the 2018-20 seasons due to injury, though he stayed healthy in 2021.

Brian Snitker On Managerial Tenure, Freeman, Ozuna

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Brian Snitker was at the helm of the Braves’ first World Series title in 26 years, leading the club to a championship in his fourth full season as skipper. A few months after securing the title, the 2018 National Manager of the Year chatted with Jeff Schultz of the Athletic.

The 66-year-old Snitker addressed his personal future, telling Schultz he’s still energized for another season in the wake of the World Series win. Asked how long he planned to continue managing, Snitker said he at least intends to work the remainder of his current contract. Though he was already under contract through 2023, the Braves exercised their 2024 option on his services shortly after the season.

As they prepare for what they hope to be a fifth consecutive division title, the Braves have plenty of roster maneuvering to figure out after the lockout. Hanging over the entire offseason has been the status of Freddie Freeman, who didn’t sign before the transactions freeze. Freeman and the Braves have reportedly haggled over whether his contract should include a sixth guaranteed year. With the possibility looming that he might depart, the Braves have been tied to Matt Olson and Anthony Rizzo as possible alternatives.

How ardently to pursue a Freeman reunion is a decision for ownership and the front office. Snitker, unsurprisingly, tells Schultz he’d prefer to keep the 2020 NL MVP around but pointed to the Braves’ ability to overcome losses of key players (most notably Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Soroka) last season. “Do I want Freddie back? Absolutely. Why wouldn’t I,” Snitker asked rhetorically. “But it may not happen. It’s the way business is. But I’m not freaking out about it right now. Last year, we lost Player A, and we kept going. We lost player B, C, D, E, F, and we just kept going. It’s what we do.”

Snitker also addressed the status of corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was arrested in late May on domestic violence charges. Police at the time alleged they saw Ozuna strike his wife Genesis with a cast. A few months after his arrest, Ozuna agreed to partake in a domestic violence intervention program that could see his criminal charges eventually dropped. After spending a few months on the injured list, he was placed on paid administrative leave through the end of the 2021 season. Following the season, MLB announced a retroactive 20-game suspension for violation of the MLB – MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy, making him eligible to return to the field from the outset of 2022.

The Braves haven’t officially announced their plans for Ozuna, who is under contract through 2024. If Ozuna remains on the active roster, Snitker tells Schultz he’d have no qualms about putting him back into the lineup. “As far as I know right now, he’s going to be there,” Snitker said. “He went through the process, and he’s been cleared to play. That’s all I care about.“

Braves, A’s Discussed Matt Olson Prior To Lockout

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When — or whether — the Braves will re-sign Freddie Freeman has been one of the most pressing issues on the minds of the Atlanta fan base for the better part of a year, but the 2020 NL MVP entered the current MLB lockout as a free agent with no real indication of progress toward a return to Truist Park on the horizon. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes this morning that there’s obvious incentive for either Freeman or the Braves to act quickly, one way or another, once the lockout finally ends. Most notably, Rosenthal reports that the Braves indeed spoke to the A’s about a potential Matt Olson deal prior to the lockout (as had been previously suggested), adding that the talks should not be written off as simple due diligence.

An early strike by the Braves to acquire Olson would register as nothing short of a stunner. The longstanding belief has been that despite the ostensible lack of traction in talks, Freeman will eventually reach a deal to return to the same team for which he’s played the first dozen seasons of a potential Hall-of-Fame career. It’s been even more widely expected that the A’s will trade Olson, particularly in the wake of comments from GM David Forst that the team will listen to offers on all of its top players (in preparation for a payroll reduction). However, Freeman’s legacy in Atlanta has made the Braves feel like a long shot, at best.

The 27-year-old Olson (28 in March) has been most prominently linked to the Yankees thus far in the offseason, though a good portion of the ink dedicated to that fit has been speculative in nature. The Rangers are among the other clubs to have been tied to Olson on the heels of a career year in Oakland.

Olson, the No. 47 overall draft pick back in 2012, dramatically reduced his strikeout rate this past season without conceding anything in terms of power or walk rate. He’d fanned in 26.1% of his career plate appearances heading into 2021, including a career-worst 31.4% clip in 2020, but slashed that mark to 16.8% this past season. Meanwhile, he walked at a 13.1% clip and slugged a career-best 39 home runs and 35 doubles — all while playing standout defense at first base. He’s controlled for another two seasons before free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming year in the first of those two campaigns.

If the Braves were to make the unpopular decision to move on from Freeman, Olson would represent the best option — at least among plausibly available targets in free agency and on the trade market. Alternatives such as free agent Anthony Rizzo or trade candidate Luke Voit would be less impactful. That said, the $12MM projection on Olson’s 2021 salary is more than twice as much as this past season’s $5MM salary, and he’d be in line for a similarly massive raise for the 2023 campaign before hitting free agency in arguably an even better position than Freeman currently occupies.

While Freeman, of course, has the lengthier track record, Olson stands to reach the open market in advance of his age-30 season. Freeman will play the bulk of the upcoming season at 32 before turning 33 in September. Should Olson continue at his 2021 pace — or anything close to it — he could viably seek a contract of even greater length and/or greater total value than Freeman is currently seeking; an extension for Olson wouldn’t figure to be much cheaper, given his blend of youth, recent track record and relative proximity to the open market.

Also vital to consider is the enormous asking price that’s sure to be placed on Olson. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted a couple months back that the Athletics were “shooting for the moon” in any talks regarding Olson — understandably so. It’s increasingly rare in MLB to see a player of this caliber, with this much club control remaining, actually change hands on the trade market. Using FanGraphs’ wins above replacement as a loose barometer, Olson would be the third-best player (based on 2019-21 WAR) with multiple years of control remaining to be traded over the past three years. One of the two names ahead of him, Nolan Arenado, isn’t really a comparable given that he’d already been signed to a massive extension that impacted the nature of trade talks between the Rockies and Cardinals.

The other name ahead of Olson in those WAR rankings is perhaps the best and most direct recent comparable: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Phils surrendered one of baseball’s 15 best overall prospects (Sixto Sanchez), plus an immediate MLB-ready replacement (Jorge Alfaro, who’d recently ranked as a top prospect himself) and a solid mid-tier organizational arm in lefty Will Stewart. Starling Marte was traded from Pittsburgh to Arizona when he had two years remaining on his contract, netting the Bucs now-top-100 prospect Liover Peguero and pitching prospect Brennan Malone. However, Marte was 31 at the time of that trade and wasn’t coming off nearly as strong a season as Olson’s 2021 showing.

Simply put, a package to acquire Olson should considerably outpace what the Bucs received for Marte, and he arguably ought to fetch more than Realmuto did. That’s not to suggest that an Olson package would be a direct, apples-to-apples comparison with the Realmuto swap — but rather to illustrate the sizable value that a player of this caliber carries when he has multiple years of control remaining. Certainly, the packages would differ. For instance, Atlanta doesn’t have a prospect who’s currently as well-regarded as Sanchez was at the time that deal. The A’s could well have different priorities than the Marlins did, too; they’d surely require a premium headliner but have also been known to pursue volume-based approaches of MLB-ready talent rather than packages strictly composed of far-off, but high-upside minor leaguers. (See their return packages for Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Rich Hill/Josh Reddick, Ryan Madson/Sean Doolittle and more.)

If the Braves’ primary trepidation regarding a Freeman deal is the length of the contract, as has been oft-suggested, then an Olson acquisition may only be a slightly more palatable road to traverse — unless the front office is content to ship out heaps of young talent in exchange for a two-year rental and a subsequent draft pick (if the qualifying offer system even remains in place following the collective bargaining talks). Broadly speaking, the sorts of contracts currently being sought by Freeman and likely to be sought by Olson in the near future are the very types that Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has eschewed since being hired in Nov. 2017.

While the Braves slightly broke from their aversion to long-term commitments in last winter’s ill-fated re-signing of Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM), even that contract only materialized after Ozuna was unable to secure the fifth year he originally sought. Outside of that four-year pact, the Braves have shown a strong preference for shorter-term deals, often at premium annual values — a similar philosophy to that of the Dodgers, where Anthopoulos served as senior vice president of baseball ops prior to being hired in Atlanta. Will Smith’s three-year, $39MM deal is the next-largest free agent deal given out under Anthopoulos in Atlanta. The only times he’s gone to five years or more have been on wildly team-friendly deals for young stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.

Whether the Braves are willing to break that mold for Freeman can’t be known, but it’s nevertheless notable that they’ve had talks with the A’s about a potential replacement. It’s perhaps even more telling that, as Rosenthal suggests, either Freeman or the Braves could move quickly in a new direction post-lockout after spending the past 12 months in a staring contest.

Why Haven’t The Braves Paid Freddie Freeman?

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Though the consensus across the industry remains that Braves franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman will ultimately end up back in Atlanta, few expected Freeman to reach 2021 Opening Day — let alone the long-inevitable lockout — without a deal to keep the face of the franchise with the only club he’s ever known well into the backside of his career. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is notorious for playing his cards as close to the vest as any GM in the game, but it would at least appear that the chances of Freeman joining friend, mentor, and recent MLBTR chatee Chipper Jones in spending the entirety of a Hall of Fame-caliber career in Atlanta have reached an all-time low.

Based on the most recent reports of the state of talks between the Braves and their sweet-swinging lefty (which came via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in mid-November), player and team are hung up on both length and value, with the Braves reportedly offering a five-year, $135MM pact and Freeman holding out for something closer to six years and $200MM. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR projected Freeman would ultimately land a six-year, $180MM deal, a prediction that roughly accords with how the market played out ahead of the lockout.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in December, while there’s no obviously ideal fit for Freeman outside of Atlanta, there’s also no NL team with an established incumbent at DH, hypothetically expanding Freeman’s market to NL teams with an entrenched first basemen — including the Dodgers (Max Muncy/Cody Bellinger), the Cardinals (Paul Goldschmidt), the Giants (Brandon Belt), and the Mets (Pete Alonso) — should the new CBA include a universal DH. But not every team has the payroll flexibility to add Freeman, of course, and few see either first base (the least demanding defensive position) or DH (a non-defensive role) as positions worthy of major payroll commitments, both of which Anthopoulos is likely relying on as he attempts to wait out his star.

Three teams with money to spend (the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays) were reported to have kicked the tires on Freeman ahead of the lockout, but Tim notes reasons to remain suspect with regard to each: in his seven years at the helm in LA, Andrew Friedman has never given out a deal longer than four years to another team’s free agent; the Yankees have more urgent needs at shortstop and in the rotation; and the Blue Jays would have to either transition Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back to third base (where his defense would detract from his bat’s enormous value) or ask their young star to give up his glove entirely after an MVP-caliber season at first. Still, each of these clubs have the financial flexibility to pry Freeman from the Braves, and there’s no telling how any team will react to the free-agent feeding frenzy likely to follow the end of the lockout.

Fresh off a World Series run few expected, the Braves and their deep-pocketed owner clearly could afford to keep Freeman on the books (the Braves are owned by the Denver-based corporation Liberty Media, whose chairman, John Malone, has an estimated net worth of $8 billion, per MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald). Because Liberty Media is a publicly traded company, the Braves’ profit-and-loss numbers are a matter of public record. The company’s 2021 third quarter earnings report (which runs from July 1 to September 30, roughly the second half of the regular season) records $222MM in Braves-related revenue and an operating profit of $35MM while running a full-season payroll of just shy of $145MM (per Fangraphs’ RosterResource) — a profit figure that does not include the club’s massive playoff gate windfall, the flurry of championship merchandise sales, or the lucrative explosions in season ticket sales and sponsorship deals that commonly follow a title.

To be clear, though he was characteristically cagy about the details, Anthopoulos has stated publicly that the Braves will run a higher payroll in 2022, a feat they’re likely to accomplish even without a fresh Freeman deal. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts (which includes salary estimates for the Braves’ nine arbitration-eligible big-leaguers), the Braves have already allocated just under $129MM in salary commitments in 2022 and are still in need of at least one starting-caliber outfielder; of the four outfielders the team rotated in the playoffs (Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall), only Duvall is presently under contract, and no one is sure what to expect from superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. (returning from a major knee injury) or Marcell Ozuna (from administrative leave) – or, indeed, whether the latter will even remain with the club. Further, while Acuña has played solidly in several years in center field and Duvall managed it through the playoffs, each is likely better suited for a corner. One of the prospect trio of Cristian Pache, Michael Harris, and Drew Waters is likely the long-term answer in center, but none has yet proven himself ready to take over.

How the Braves choose to address this need (as well as for a possible veteran innings-eater to complement the stable of young arms they’ll slot in behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson) remains to be seen, but both Soler (projected to land a three-year, $36MM deal) and Rosario (two years, $15MM) are live possibilities. Presuming roughly $15MM of 2022 salary to address these needs would put the club right around last year’s payroll figure, and a $30MM annual commitment to Freeman on top would push them significantly beyond any number with which ownership has seemed comfortable in the past.

These are heady times in Atlanta, of course — and Liberty Media’s balance sheet makes it clear it’s a bump they could profitably absorb — but there are baseball reasons to consider. Freeman will be entering his age-32 season in 2022, after all, and the Braves will want to do everything they can to avoid the sort of millstone deal given to other first basemen (e.g. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera) in the last decade or so. Still, Freeman has been a model of consistency, posting an OPS+ of 132 or higher in every season since 2013, and recent years have shown no signs of regression; the first baseman followed an astonishing run to an NL MVP behind a .341/.462/.640 line in the small sample of 2020 by essentially replicating his career numbers (.295/.384/.509) in 2021 (.300/.393/.503) despite an uncharacteristically slow start.

The slugger’s batted-ball numbers also show no serious warning signs; though his line-drive percentage fell to 25.1% in 2021 (his lowest since 2012), his hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls with exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 46.2% matched his career number exactly. His 2021 strikeout (15.4%) and walk (12.2%) also fall on the right side of his career numbers (19.7% and 11.7%, respectively).

A six-year deal would take him through his age-37 season (by which point Father Time is likely to have made at least some progress), but the recent precedent in Atlanta is on Freeman’s side. Though he never played in more than 143 games after his age-31 season, Jones remained a productive Brave through age 40, even winning a batting title in his age-36 season and lodging his final two All-Star appearances at ages 39 and 40, all while playing a much more taxing defensive position.

How Anthopoulos will choose to play the Freeman situation on the other side of the lockout remains to be seen, but he’ll almost certainly have to rethink his aversion to a sixth year to keep his face of the franchise around. The pre-lockout market proved favorable to high-end players; Marcus Semien, who’s only a year younger than Freeman and has a much less extensive track record of high-end offensive production, pulled down a seven-year deal, for instance, and he isn’t even expected to be asked to cover the premium position of shortstop. Braves fans are currently riding high off their first championship since 1995, but losing the one player they kept around following their post-2014 teardown would surely let quite a bit of air out of the balloon. Landing either native Atlantan Matt Olson (who’d cost the Braves a pretty penny in trade capital) or Anthony Rizzo (projected for a three-year, $45MM pact, and on whom the Braves have apparently kicked the tires) might soften the blow, but neither has the professional or personal stature Freeman has earned in his twelve years as a Brave.

If Not The Braves, Where Could Freddie Freeman Sign?

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32-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman, once of baseball’s best hitters, entered the lockout without a home.  After 12 years with the Braves and coming off a championship, the assumption is that Atlanta remains the favorite.

The last information we have on Freeman’s negotiations with the Braves dates back to mid-November.  On November 12th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today put it this way, reporting from the GM Meetings in Carlsbad:

“Free agent Freddie Freeman was on the mind of every team seeking a first baseman, with Freeman rejecting Atlanta’s five-year, $135 million offer, and seeking closer to a six-year, $200 million deal. Yet, you couldn’t find a soul who believes Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta.”

Jon Heyman of MLB Network generally concurred in a report four days later, writing, “Last heard 6th year was still at issue in Freeman/Braves talks but situation is fluid and they’ve still got to be considered the favorite.”  A few weeks after that, Heyman suggested the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are “trying to pry” Freeman away from the Braves, even though those clubs find it unlikely.

Will the Braves or Freeman crack on the sixth year issue once the lockout ends?  Would Freeman take a lower AAV than the expected $30MM+ to convince the Braves to commit to a sixth year, perhaps at something like six years and $160MM?  Whatever needs to happen to get it done, the impending lockout did not create enough pressure to result in an agreement.  You’d have to think Freeman’s chances of leaving the Braves are around their highest point, whatever those chances are.  The Braves have let it get to a point where Freeman has no team, and other teams likely made offers.

Let’s assume something like MLBTR’s six-year, $180MM projection would be needed to lure Freeman away from the Braves.  Signing Freeman would also likely require draft pick forfeiture.  If not the Braves, which teams could reasonably do that contract?  Let’s start by assessing Heyman’s trio.

  • Dodgers: The Dodgers doing a six-year contract for another team’s 32-year-old free agent?  Andrew Friedman has been in charge for seven years now, and he’s given out four-plus years to another team’s free agent two times: four years to Brandon McCarthy in 2014, and four years to AJ Pollock in 2019.  Under Friedman, the club did go to four years to retain Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and five to keep Kenley Jansen in free agency.  They also notably did a 12-year extension with Mookie Betts before he played a regular season game with the team.  But six years to Freeman along with the forfeiture of the Dodgers’ second and fifth round draft picks?  I just don’t see it.  Signing Freeman would also require Max Muncy to spend more time at second or third base, but the addition of an NL DH could alleviate a potential logjam.
  • Yankees: The Yankees basically did nothing to improve the team prior to the lockout, so there’s the idea they could add Freeman’s sweet-swinging lefty bat in lieu of their more pressing need at shortstop.  Even if Freeman costs $180MM, that’s still likely over $100MM less than Carlos Correa.  The team could and would likely have to exceed a new 2022 competitive balance tax threshold to sign Freeman, but they may be willing to do so after staying below the line in 2021.  Adding Freeman would do nothing to solve the shortstop issue, and it would also crowd out Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres to a degree.  One of them could be traded to accommodate Freeman.  Still, Freeman is an imperfect fit for a team that is also in need of rotation help.
  • Blue Jays: Speaking of imperfect Freeman fits, the Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base.  Assuming Freeman doesn’t intend to mostly shelve his first baseman’s glove, Vlad Jr. would have to spend most of his time at designated hitter – fresh off a second-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger award.  A shift back to third base for Guerrero would seem even more risky.  It’s also worth noting that signing Freeman would permanently plug up Toronto’s DH spot, where George Springer spent nearly half his games in 2021.  I think the Blue Jays could swing the financial commitment to Freeman, and I get the idea of replacing Marcus Semien’s bat, but this is not a great roster fit.

So we’ve looked at the three teams Heyman linked to Freeman, and none seem like a perfect fit.  Let’s look at all the other even slightly plausible options.

    • White Sox: They’ve got Jose Abreu at first base, but only through 2022.  They’ve also got flexibility in the DH spot, so the roster fit could work.  Financially, though, I’d be quite surprised to see the White Sox make this level of commitment given their current payroll situation.
    • Tigers: There’s a sense that the Tigers have finished their major spending after the Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez signings.  But man, would Freeman be a game-changer in Detroit.  They’ve got Jonathan Schoop at first base and Miguel Cabrera at DH, neither of whom should block a player like Freeman.  Freeman could get in the way of top prospect Spencer Torkelson, who played more first base than third this year in the minors.  Plus, the club has Jeimer Candelario at third base.  I don’t think the Tigers will pursue Freeman, but if they had the desire to spend the money I think the roster could be figured out.
    • Red Sox: The Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec at first base, who came on very strong in the season’s final two months.  They’ve got J.D. Martinez at DH, but only for one more year.  They also have first base prospect Triston Casas.  Roster-wise, the Red Sox have good options at first for the long-term, though no established Major Leaguers.  They also have a GM who’s yet to give a free agent more than $14MM.  As with Andrew Friedman, this just doesn’t seem like Chaim Bloom’s way of doing things.
    • Astros: The Astros have Yuli Gurriel at first base, but only for one more year.  They’ve got Yordan Alvarez as the regular DH.  Signing Freeman would probably necessitate a Gurriel trade.  The Astros do have the payroll flexibility to accommodate Freeman, but they seem like yet another big market club that would shy away from signing a corner infielder through age 37 – especially since they don’t seem to want to pay Carlos Correa past age 31.
    • Angels:  The Angels are committed to Shohei Ohtani as DH for two more years, and they’d surely like to lock up the AL MVP beyond that.  And Jared Walsh took over first base quite capably for the Halos this year.  Like the Yankees, shortstop and the rotation are more pressing needs.  It’s difficult to see Freeman landing here.
    • Mariners: The Mariners have Ty France at first base, plus Evan White under contract through 2025.  They don’t have a set DH, but Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens are projected to spend time there in 2022.  France could potentially play some second or third base, if the Mariners decided to accommodate Freeman.  The Mariners spent big on Robbie Ray and traded for Adam Frazier, but they’re known to be in the hunt for a significant position player addition.  I consider Freeman within the realm of possibility, though the more versatile Kris Bryant would fit better if the price tag is similar.
    • Rangers: The Rangers have Nathaniel Lowe at first base, and no set DH.  Lowe had a nice year for a player who hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time, but bumping him to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be problematic.  It’d be staggering for the Rangers to add Freeman after already committing $561.2MM to four free agents, though they could afford it.  Pitching has to be a higher priority for this team, but who’s to say they can’t do both?
    • Cubs: The Cubs have Frank Schwindel penciled in at first base after a strong couple of months, and no NL team has an incumbent DH.  Schwindel is 29 and there was nothing special about his exit velocity or launch angle even in his successful stint.  Pushing Schwindel to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be an issue, and the team did make a statement with the Marcus Stroman signing.  But that was a surprisingly short three-year deal, and with Freeman we’re talking about double that term to a player who is 19 months older.  Freeman just doesn’t fit with the long-term payroll flexibility GM Jed Hoyer enjoys.
    • Cardinals: The team has Paul Goldschmidt under contract for three more years, but again, an NL DH would open things up.  Signing Freeman would mean stretching payroll to a franchise record, and I doubt the team considers first base/DH a position of need.
    • Marlins: The Marlins have Jesus Aguilar under control for next year, but he’s not much of an impediment for a player like Freeman.  Here, it’s all about money.  A team with a $65MM payroll can afford Freeman, but Avisail Garcia’s $53MM deal seemed like the Marlins’ big free agency strike.  Freeman would require more than triple that commitment.
    • Mets: The Mets have to be listed here in the name of, “How crazy can Steve Cohen get?”  Crazy enough to add Freeman to the $254.5MM the club already committed to free agents this winter, while also forfeiting the 14th pick in next year’s draft?  Even with a more significant need in the rotation?  I don’t expect Cohen to steal Freeman away from the Braves, but it’d be the ultimate power move.
    • Phillies: The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins for two more years.  He’s been an excellent hitter, though he will be coming off lower abdomen surgery.  The Phillies’ needs at shortstop, third base, left field, and center field are much more stark than at first base/DH.  They also have a fairly bloated payroll situation.  I suppose Dave Dombrowski could simplify and try to sign Freeman in the name of adding the top bat, but it’d be a surprising choice.
    • Nationals: One year of Josh Bell wouldn’t block Freeman.  And should the Nats really take any kind of step back with only three more years of control of Juan Soto?  But it just doesn’t sound like the Nationals are looking to take on a commitment of this nature this winter.
    • Rockies: They’ve got C.J. Cron at first base, but could easily move him to DH for Freeman.  The Rockies have relatively modest commitments, which drop quite a bit as of 2024.  As a team with real and surprising interest in Kris Bryant, we should consider a possible pursuit of Freeman as well.
    • Padres: Freeman is an excellent roster fit for the Padres, who have an underperforming Eric Hosmer locked in through 2025.  The team’s payroll is pushing $200MM already, so GM A.J. Preller would need to get creative and move contracts to fit Freeman in.  It’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
    • Giants: The Giants haven’t really demonstrated their financial might yet, committing $99.4MM to four free agents without topping Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM.  DH is the ideal spot for the injury-prone Brandon Belt.  Farhan Zaidi does seem to come from the increasingly common GM school of thought that eschews long-term free agent commitments, even in big markets.  He’d have to buck that trend to sign Freeman, but otherwise it’s reasonable enough.
    • Brewers: The Brewers are a contending team with Rowdy Tellez penciled in at first base, so they at least warrant a mention.  It’s just hard to see them outbidding the field to land Freeman in that $180MM range.  I could write something very similar for the Guardians.

You’ve seen my opinions; now it’s your turn (direct poll link for app users here).

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

AL Notes: Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles

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Alex Bregman is preparing for a move to shortstop, should the Astros have a need, the third baseman told Michael Schwab on his podcast. Houston has not indicated a willingness to move Bregman, and in fact, GM James Click recently said that moving Bregman was not something they were considering. Still, it doesn’t hurt for Bregman to offer. We have seen a trend lately of third basemen moving up the defensive spectrum as players like Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw have seen time at second and Eugenio Suarez tried his hand at shortstop. These moves were hardly universal success stories, however, so it’s likely Bregman remains at the hot corner when the 2022 season opens.

In other rumblings from around the American League…

  • Like Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was adamant last winter about his willingness to move up the defensive spectrum. Ultimately, Vladdy spent all of two innings at the hot corner in 2021. Recent rumors have again suggesting moving Vlad to third in order to accommodate a totally hypothetical Freddie Freeman signing, but that’s not something the Blue Jays have discussed with their young star, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There would be other ways to accommodate a Freeman signing, but at least for now it seems their interest in Freeman was more due diligence than earnest sales pitch.
  • The Orioles signed five pitchers to minor league deals, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Bryan Bautista, 17, Raynel Duran, 18, Wilton Rondon, 19, Darwin Caballero, 21, and Noelin Cuevas, 19, will start the 2022 season in the Orioles’ organization. The Orioles continue to be one of the most pitching-needy organizations in the game, so while adding a handful of minor league free agents hardly qualifies as a game-changer, it’s a positive data point nonetheless. These five were all international free agents who will join the lowest level of Baltimore’s system, notes Kubatko.

Yankees, Blue Jays Among Teams With Interest In Freddie Freeman

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2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman is one of the top free agents on the market this winter, and he’s unsurprisingly drawing interest from a few of the game’s higher-spending organizations. The Yankees and Blue Jays are among the teams to have reached out to the five-time All-Star, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).

Many around the industry expect Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves. The star first baseman has been a member of the organization for nearly a decade and a half, and it’d be a bitter pill for the fanbase to swallow if Freeman departs on the heels of Atlanta’s first World Series title since 1995. No deal has yet gotten done, though, with the Braves’ reluctance to offer a sixth guaranteed year reportedly the hold-up in talks so far. Heyman adds that Freeman had been seeking a guarantee in the $180MM range. Entering the offseason, MLBTR indeed projected a six-year, $180MM pact for the three-time Silver Slugger award winner.

It’s certainly not out of the question Freeman and the Braves will eventually bridge their gap. Heyman notes that some other organizations in pursuit are still skeptical about the possibility the 32-year-old leaves Atlanta. There’s no harm for clubs to reach out to Freeman’s representatives at Excel Sports Management in case the Braves aren’t willing to meet his ultimate ask, though.

Were Freeman to seriously entertain the possibility of leaving Atlanta, it stands to reason other clubs would get involved. Both Heyman and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have floated the possibility of the Dodgers making a run at the Southern California native. Los Angeles has already lost Corey Seager and could see Chris Taylor also depart. Signing Freeman while bumping Max Muncy over from first to second base would go a long way towards replacing the offensive production they’ve lost this winter.

Broadly speaking, any big-market team could poke around the Freeman market. The Jays have no need for a first baseman, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking to have made the jump to perennial MVP candidate. Toronto could free up at-bats at designated hitter to accommodate Freeman, though, and other high-spending clubs could similarly move incumbent pieces around to make a signing work. Freeman is one of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, having been at least 32 percentage points better than average at the plate (by measure of wRC+) in each season since 2013.

Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Sixth Year Still A Sticking Point In Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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Though the consensus around the game remains that a reunion between Freddie Freeman and the Braves is something of a fait accompli, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the two sides are still hung up on the length of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that the 2020 NL MVP had already rejected the Braves’ best offer ($135MM over five years), though it’s unclear if that’s the same offer the club had made when Heyman reported a “gap” between the two sides in September.

Freeman, who has played the entirety of his twelve-year big-league career in Atlanta, is reportedly looking for a deal that would pay him something closer to $200MM over six years. Whether or not the Braves have bumped up their dollar offer is unclear, but the first baseman, who cemented his place in the annals of Braves history during the club’s 2021 World Series run, appears set on receiving a deal that would take him through at least his age-37 season. It’s quite clear that a carbon-copy of the five-year, $130MM deal Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2019 season won’t get it done. MLBTR projects that Freeman will ultimately sign for six years and $180MM.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already confirmed the club will run a higher payroll in 2022. To keep Freeman around, they’ll have to; following yesterday’s signing of Manny Piña, Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates (including arbitration salary projections) that the Braves have already committed just shy of $133MM to their 2022 roster. This figure could decrease with a suspension of Marcell Ozuna (who’s slated to earn $16MM next year) or if the club chooses to non-tender a few of its arbitration-eligible players (Johan Camargo, Sean Newcomb, and Orlando Arcia are all non-tender candidates), but not by enough to accommodate the roughly $30MM Freeman will command on an annual basis without a significant payroll bump.

Beyond Freeman’s importance as the face of the franchise (a role he inherited from Chipper Jones), his career numbers justify a significant investment. Since debuting as a September call-up in 2010, Freeman has put together the numbers of a likely future Hall 0f Famer, compiling a .295/.384/.509 career slash-line while mashing 271 homers. His best year came in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he put together a monstrous .341/.462/.640 line across 60 games and won his first career MVP. A pillar of consistency, Freeman hasn’t posted an OPS+ below 132 since 2012 (his age-22 season) and has played in at least 147 games in all but two of his eleven full seasons. He’s not yet shown any signs of regression, as he followed up his MVP year with a .300/.393/.503 line (basically identical to his career marks) and an OPS north of 1.000 in the playoffs.

Among the many interesting wrinkles in the surprisingly drawn-out process of a reigning World Champion attempting to hold on to its best player is the Braves’ ownership structure. Because Liberty Media, the club’s owner since a complicated stock swap deal with Time Warner in 2007, is a publicly traded company, it must disclose a detailed account of its earnings on a quarterly basis, giving fans and followers of the industry a unique look into the team’s internal financial workings. Maury Brown of Forbes reports that the club posted baseball-related revenues of $222MM in the third quarter of 2021 (roughly the second half of the season) alone.

Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, who beat the Braves in both the ’96 and ’99 Fall Classics, have at least kicked the tires on Freeman — a development likely to send shivers down the spines of Braves fans. Though hardly surprising — every team with money and a need at first base is likely to at least check in — the news will only put further pressure on Anthopoulos to re-sign his team’s most consistent and recognizable player. Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, and Atlanta-area native Dansby Swanson (an infant when the Braves last won a title) have already joined the chorus of fans demanding a speedy deal, calling on club management to “re-sign Freddie” during their speeches at Truist Park following the team’s championship parade.

Even if the Braves do wrap up a deal to keep Freeman in Atlanta into his elder years, Anthopoulos’ offseason business is unlikely to be done. Three of the four outfielders the club acquired in July (Joc Pederson, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, and World Series MVP Jorge Soler) are also free agents, and the fourth (Adam Duvall) is arbitration-eligible after turning down his half of a $7MM mutual option. With Ozuna’s future in Atlanta uncertain, Ronald Acuña Jr. still recovering from a major knee injury, and top prospect Cristian Pache a major question mark with the bat, the reigning champ’s outfield situation remains up in the air. They may also wish to add a veteran starter to a mix that includes Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, and a stable of promising-but-unproven arms (including Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, and Touki Toussaint) with mixed records in the big leagues.

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