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Ian Happ

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

By Simon Hampton | April 19, 2023 at 11:30pm CDT

Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Rays, top prospect debuts, Angels, trade deadline, Gary Sanchez, Francisco Alvarez – listen here
  • Early trade deadline preview, Jake Cronenworth extension and the Padres, Marlins trade ideas, Cardinals rotation, Dodgers – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Minnesota Twins MLB Trade Rumors Podcast San Francisco Giants Aaron Nola Ian Happ Juan Soto Julio Urias Logan Webb Marcell Ozuna Pablo Lopez Shohei Ohtani

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Cubs Sign Ian Happ To Extension

By Steve Adams | April 12, 2023 at 11:56pm CDT

The Cubs have kept one of the top impending free agents off the market. Chicago announced a three-year extension with outfielder Ian Happ covering the 2024-26 seasons. It’s reportedly a $61MM guarantee and contains a full no-trade clause. Happ receives a $3MM signing bonus, successive $20MM salaries in 2024-25, and an $18MM salary in 2026.

It’s a frankly surprising deal for the player, given Happ’s proximity to the open market. He was set to reach free agency this offseason and would’ve done so at a relatively young age, as the 2024 campaign will be just his age-29 season. Recent open-market deals for free-agent corner outfielders suggest that Happ had a strong case for a lengthier and more lucrative deal than the one he inked to remain in Chicago. Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79MM), Nick Castellanos (five years, $100MM) and Andrew Benintendi (five years, $75MM) all topped that mark within the past two offseasons alone. Michael Conforto received a $36MM guarantee and a conditional opt-out clause last offseason after not playing a single game in the preceding season.

Happ is younger than Schwarber and Castellanos were in free agency, healthier and younger than Conforto was, and has a superior offensive track record to Benintendi. Granted, he strikes out more often and hits for a lower average, but Happ also reaches base more frequently and has a good bit more power than Benintendi. Dating back to the 2019 season, he’s a .254/.341/.461 hitter with 66 home runs, 84 doubles, five triples, 22 stolen bases, a 10.9% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate in 1608 trips to the plate.

By measure of wRC+, Happ has been 18% better than league-average over that span and 20% better than average in three of those four individual seasons. He’s substantially pared back his strikeout tendencies throughout his career, going from a sky-high 36.1% clip back in 2018 to a far more palatable 23.2% in 2022 (and 24.4% so far in 2023). Happ also enjoyed a career year with the glove in ’22, turning in a whopping 13 Defensive Runs Saved in left field. That netted him his first Gold Glove, and the overall strength of his 2022 performance sent him to his first All-Star Game last summer as well.

Beyond the recent contracts for fellow corner outfielders and Happ’s generally strong performance, the extension is surprising given the context of next winter’s free-agent class, which is set to be a decidedly pitcher-heavy group of names. After Rafael Devers and Manny Machado signed massive nine-figure extensions, Happ represented one of the best bats slated to reach the market, joining names like Teoscar Hernandez and Matt Chapman.

Happ’s contract certainly affords him a market-commensurate annual value for a player of this skill set, but it’s nonetheless a surprise to see him sign a short-term deal that delays his first trip to free agency until the completion of his age-31 season. Happ surely placed value on remaining with the only team he’s ever known, in the city he’s come to call home, and with the teammates he’s embraced as family. Ultimately, all contract extension of this nature are life-changing money that will set a player for generations, and even if the market was quite likely to bear a greater sum next winter, it’s easy enough to understand the allure from a pure human-interest standpoint.

From a team vantage point, the Cubs are surely thrilled to be able to retain a popular, productive core player without committing to a the lengthier market norms. Happ is the second member of the team’s core to delay his path to free agency with an atypically short deal, joining Nico Hoerner, whose recent three-year, $35MM contract extension bought out only one free-agent season. The Cubs are buying purely prime-aged years in both instances.

The Cubs already had about $127MM on the 2024 books, so Happ’s extension will likely push them to around $147MM in total commitments — assuming even distribution of salary over the three would-be free-agent years. The bulk of those commitments will come off the books the following season. In 2025-26, the Cubs will now have roughly $100MM committed to a quintet of players: Happ, Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Seiya Suzuki. For a team that’s previously topped $200MM in player payroll and lays claim to one of the most lucrative revenue streams in the sport, that ought to leave plenty of room for additional supplementation of that core via the free-agent market, trade market or by extending additional homegrown players in the same manner as they’ve done with Hoerner and now Happ.

Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation was first to report the Cubs and Happ were in agreement on a three-year, $61MM extension. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the no-trade clause and the specific salary structure.

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Chicago Cubs Newsstand Transactions Ian Happ

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Cubs Notes: Happ, Leeper, Suzuki, Hughes

By Nick Deeds | April 4, 2023 at 6:07pm CDT

On the heels of the recent extension agreement between the Cubs and second baseman Nico Hoerner, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic checked in on the status of negotiations with the other Cubs hitter who found himself in the extension rumor mill this offseason: outfielder Ian Happ.

No extension got done ahead of Opening Day between Happ and the Cubs, through president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer noted that the sides has “really productive and really cordial” negotiations in the run up to the start of the season. While Hoyer refused to say negotiations had come to an end, he admitted to the difficulties of negotiations during the season, saying, “I know how hard it is to perform, in general, and having negotiations going on can be really difficult for some guys, so I respect the fact that guys won’t do it.”

Happ, who Mooney notes is not only the team’s representative to the MLBPA but also advised Hoerner during his extension negotiations with the Cubs, is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2023 season. He sports a career wRC+ of 115, and though his 120 mark from last season isn’t far off from that figure, he considerably changes his approach at the plate last season. Though he sacrificed some power, posting a career-low .169 ISO, he cut his strikeout rate down to just 23.2% from his career 30.8% mark headed into the 2022 season. Should Happ be able to replicate his 2022 performance this season, he figures to join the likes of Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez as among the best bats on the free agent market this offseason not named Shohei Ohtani.

More from the north side of Chicago…

  • Cubs relief prospect Ben Leeper, 25, underwent surgery on his arm yesterday, as the player noted himself on his Instagram account. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times notes that the procedure was Tommy John surgery, which will cause Leeper to miss not only the entire 2023 season but likely a significant portions of the 2024 season as well. Leeper, who signed with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent following the 2020 draft, posted a 3.11 ERA for the Cubs in 81 innings of work over the last two seasons split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Leeper figured to make his MLB debut sometime this year, but this news will scuttle those plans until 2024 at the earliest. The Cubs still have several depth options in the minors for the big league bullpen this season, including Jeremiah Estrada, Brendon Little, and Rowan Wick.
  • According to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, outfielder Seiya Suzuki figures to get a pair of at-bats in a rehab game in Arizona today, though he will not play the field. Suzuki started the season on the injured list with an oblique strain and figures to join the big league club sometime this month. Suzuki is entering the second year of his five-year, $85MM contract with the club. In his MLB debut season last year, Suzuki slashed .262/.336/.443 in 446 plate appearances, good for a 116 wRC+. The right-handed slugger is regarded as one of the most important hitters in the lineup for a Cubs team looking to make a surprise run at contention after signing Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Jameson Taillon this offseason, and a healthy season from him will be key to the club’s fortunes this season.
  • Cubs reliever Brandon Hughes will begin throwing tomorrow, according to Bastian. A converted outfield prospect, Hughes impressed in 57 2/3 innings of work out of the Chicago bullpen last season, posting a 3.12 ERA, good for a 132 ERA+. While that top line run prevention number is impressive, and Hughes posted a solid 28.5% strikeout rate against an 8.8% walk rate, he also managed to leave a whopping 87.7% of runners on base last season, in large part thanks to his deflated .233 BABIP in spite of a groundball rate of just 33.8%. Given his problems with balls in the air, it’s no surprise that his FIP was a whopping 4.64 last year. Still, the Cubs figures to be a lock for the Cubs’ bullpen once he’s healthy, particularly given the club currently has no left-handers in its bullpen.
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Chicago Cubs Notes Ben Leeper Brandon Hughes Ian Happ Seiya Suzuki

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Cubs Notes: Bullpen, Happ, Hendricks

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2023 at 9:52am CDT

The Cubs remain open to adding a left-handed reliever, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, though it’s not a lock that they’ll ultimately strike a deal. The Cubs are reluctant to surpass the $233MM luxury tax barrier, and an incentive-based deal for former All-Star Zack Britton could push them past that point if he’s healthy and effective. Chicago has been “monitoring” Mike Minor as well, per the report, though his struggles in recent seasons are an understandable red flag.

President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer said just last week that he “wouldn’t be shocked” to see another reliever come into camp, although the Cubs saw a pair of options come off the board over the weekend when Will Smith signed with the Rangers and Brad Hand inked a deal with the Rockies. Chicago currently sits with a projected $225MM luxury tax figure, placing them $8MM shy of penalization. Even if a deal with Britton or Minor doesn’t come to fruition, that doesn’t necessarily close the book on the Cubs making any kind of addition. Many non-roster veterans throughout the league have opt-out provisions they could trigger if told they’re not making their current organization’s roster, and there will surely be a number of arms being designated for assignment and/or placed on waivers later this month as teams set their Opening Day rosters.

More from Wrigley…

  • Left fielder Ian Happ is slated to reach free agency following the 2023 season and could be positioned as one of the top names on the market with another big season in 2023, but he tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that his hope is to remain with the Cubs long-term. “It would be weird to wear another jersey,” says Happ, whom the Cubs selected with the ninth overall draft pick back in 2015. “I would love to stay here and I would love to be a part of the next great Cubs team, but we’ll see.” In addition to Happ, next year’s outfield market is slated to include Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo and perhaps Michael Conforto, depending on his player option. In general, the 2023-24 class will be a lighter group than this past offseason, and that’s especially true now that Rafael Devers and Manny Machado have foregone trips to the open market in favor of extensions. Happ could do the same, of course, but the Cubs didn’t sign any of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras to extensions before they reached six years of service time (and thus qualified as free agents). Based on Happ’s comments, he’ll at least be open to it if they want to try to change that trend with him this spring.
  • Kyle Hendricks threw a bullpen session on Monday, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. That marks the first full-strength, max-effort bullpen session for the veteran right-hander since last July, when he underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder. (Hendricks previously threw off a mound in late February and earlier this month but did not do so at full intensity.) The plan for Hendricks is to throw 10 bullpen sessions of this nature before he progresses to facing hitters. Hendricks will open the season on the 15-day injured list, and he’s not likely to complete that slate of 10 bullpen sessions until mid-April. From there, he’d need to throw live batting practice before progressing to a minor league rehab assignment, where he’d surely need multiple starts to build up. The 33-year-old Hendricks was one of the NL’s most durable and consistently effective starters from 2015-20, pitching to a 3.17 ERA over the life of 967 innings in that time. He’s stumbled to a 4.78 ERA in 48 starts over the past two seasons, however, as he’s become increasingly homer-prone. Hendricks is entering the final guaranteed season of a four-year, $55MM contract, though the Cubs hold a net $14.5MM decision on him for the 2024 campaign ($16MM option with a $1.5MM buyout).
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Chicago Cubs Notes Ian Happ Kyle Hendricks Mike Minor Zack Britton

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Cubs, Ian Happ Avoid Arbitration

By Nick Deeds | January 13, 2023 at 11:18pm CDT

The Cubs and outfielder Ian Happ came to an agreement on a $10.85MM salary for the 2023 season in order to avoid arbitration, per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

Happ, 28, has spent his entire professional career as a member of the Cubs organization. He delivered a strong debut campaign in the 2017 season, posting a .253/.328/.514 slash line, good for a 114 wRC+ and some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes while splitting time between second base and center field. The following season, Happ split time between all three outfield spots as well as third base but took a step back offensively, posting a slash line of just .233/.353/.408 (106 wRC+) in 142 games with a worrisome 36.1% strikeout rate.

Happ spent much of the 2019 season at Triple-A Iowa working on his game, and appeared to have made improvements by the time he came up in the second half: in 58 games that season, he slashed .264/.333/.564 (126 wRC+) while cutting his strikeout rate all the way down to 25.0%. Happ’s improved game carried into the shortened 2020 campaign, where he looked like a potential MVP candidate early in the season before an injury an early September caused him to slump down the stretch. Still, he managed a 132 wRC+ on the year after his hot start to the shortened season. That slump continued throughout the first half of the 2021 season as Happ slashed .193/.296/.330 in the first half, though a strong second half allowed him to push his overall season numbers back above league average.

After a difficult year in 2021, however, Happ was able to post the best full season of his career in 2022, and looked like a completely different hitter while doing it. He posted a career high in doubles, a career low strikeout rate, earned a gold glove after settling into a full-time role in left field rather than bouncing around the diamond as he had in the past, and even managed to correct his heavy platoon split from previous years, becoming a largely split neutral player. All this led to his first career All Star appearance in 2022 and allowed him to earn over $10MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, even narrowly beating out the $10.6MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz.

While Happ is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season, rumblings of an extension have permeated throughout the offseason, with both Happ and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reportedly looking to start any potential extension talks before Spring Training, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Ian Happ

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MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

By Anthony Franco | November 1, 2022 at 6:47pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Andres Gimenez Brendan Donovan Brendan Rodgers Christian Walker Dansby Swanson DJ LeMahieu Ian Happ J.T. Realmuto Jeremy Pena Jose Trevino Kyle Tucker Max Fried Mookie Betts Myles Straw Nolan Arenado Ramon Urias Shane Bieber Steven Kwan Trent Grisham Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Ian Happ Transformed Himself In 2022

By Nick Deeds | October 13, 2022 at 10:27pm CDT

It’s been a difficult couple of years for Cubs fans, as the team finished 74-88 in 2022, just a few wins better than the 71-91 record they posted in a 2021 season that saw the team trade Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez, among other players, at the trade deadline. While the Cubs may have only made marginal improvements in the standings this year, there are some bright spots. Both Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki delivered in their first years in Cubs uniforms, and young players like Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, and Justin Steele all gave fans reason to hope with encouraging 2022 performances.

Leading the pack in that regard was Ian Happ, who had a transformational year in 2022 en route to his first All-Star selection. In 520 career games entering the 2022 season, Happ slashed .241/.338/.467 (113 wRC+) and had shown himself to be a primarily three true outcomes hitter. Among hitters from 2017-2021 with at least 1500 plate appearances, Happ’s 12% walk rate ranked 31st in the majors and his .226 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) ranked 51st. While those numbers on their own would put Happ in a similar conversation as the likes of Christian Yelich and Paul Goldschmidt, his 30.8% strikeout rate ranked 4th among qualifiers over that timeframe, severely hampering his overall production. This, combined with defensive assignments such as second base and center field where he looked overmatched, left Happ entering the 2022 season with just 6.9 career fWAR.

The 2022 season saw Happ play like a completely different player. He still takes his walks, though the 9% rate at which he did so in 2022 is reduced from his previous career norms, but the power output has changed dramatically. Formerly a player who could be relied upon for 20-25 home runs over the course of a full season, Happ hit just 17 home runs in 2022 despite having more plate appearances this season than any other in his career: a result of his career-worst 6.5% barrel rate.

What Happ gave up in power, he made up for in increased contact. His strikeout rate plummeted all the way to 23.2% in 2022, a remarkable improvement for a player who as recently as last year finished with the 10th-highest strikeout rate among qualified batters. This reduction in strikeouts came off the back of significantly reduced whiffs. Happ posted a contact rate of 75% this season, a significant improvement over his 67.6% career rate entering the 2022 season.

In addition to his improvement in terms of contact, Happ also saw much of his lost home run power convert to doubles power. While his low home run total in 2022 may seem concerning on the surface, Happ hit a whopping 42 doubles this season, tied for sixth-most in the majors and more than doubling his previous career high of 20. With fewer whiffs and more doubles, Happ’s .271/.342/.440 slash line in 2022, good for a wRC+ of 120, left him hitting better than he ever had in a full season. He was also more consistent as a hitter in 2022, able to handle both lefties and righties with equal effectiveness. While Happ has struggled against lefties for his career (posting just a .717 OPS against them in 584 plate appearances), in 2022 he actually posted slightly better numbers against lefties than righties for the first time in his career: a .788 OPS against lefties compared to a .780 OPS against righties.

Along with his growth at the plate, Happ was a positive contributor in the field for the first time in his career in 2022. A full-time shift to left field has done wonders for Happ’s defensive value; his +2 OAA in 2022 ranks fourth among qualified left fielders and trails only Adam Duvall in the NL. All of this growth saw Happ post a 3.5 fWAR in 2022, more than his totals for 2020 and 2021 combined.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Happ to make $10.6MM for 2023 in his final trip through arbitration. A free agent at the end of the 2023 season, Happ’s future is uncertain. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week the team has laid the groundwork for extension discussions with some key players this offseason, although there’s no indication a deal with Happ (or any other player) is close. The Cubs have doled out just two contract extensions in the past four years: one to Kyle Hendricks during Spring Training in 2019, and one to David Bote just a few days later. Furthermore, for an organization with top prospects such as Brennen Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario manning the outfield in the upper levels of the minors — not to mention Suzuki under contract to man right field through the 2026 season — an extension for a player who’s just shown his best position to be left field may not necessarily be prudent.

Given all this, it seems likely that Happ will be playing elsewhere sometime soon, whether that’s in time for Spring Training next year, after next year’s trade deadline, or after Happ tests free agency for the first time. One speculative fit would be with the crosstown White Sox, who have a collection of talented players but had one of the least productive outfield units in the majors in 2022. Furthermore, Happ’s switch-hitting capabilities would be an excellent change of pace for a club that relies on the righty bats of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock, and Andrew Vaughn when it comes to manning the outfield. The Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Giants are among other teams who missed the postseason this year and could stand to make improvements to their outfield going forward. As for teams that made it into the postseason, the Braves may look to improve upon their internal left field options of Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, while the Rays will need outfield help with the likes of David Peralta and Kevin Kiermaier likely hitting free agency this offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Ian Happ

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Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Upcoming Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | October 12, 2022 at 4:25pm CDT

After six straight winning seasons from 2015 to 2020, which included five postseason berths and a World Series title, the Cubs have entered a rebuild and finished below .500 the past two years. As the fans hope for better days ahead, club chairman Tom Ricketts released a statement as the team switches gears from the season to the offseason.

“We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster,” Ricketts says, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. “As [president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer] has demonstrated, we will be driven by intelligent decision-making as we build a roster that can win games in the postseason – year in and year out.”

The word “active” in that statement is likely attractive to some, though it’s worth pointing that it can mean many different things. The Cubs were certainly active in free agency last year, giving out 12 deals to players who were on the open market. However, Seiya Suzuki was a special case since he was 27 years old at the time and coming over from playing in Japan. Marcus Stroman got a substantial deal, but on a shorter-than-expected three-year term with an opt out after year two. Apart from that, the deals for veterans were all on the modest side, both in terms of dollars and years.

Hoyer talked about spending money “intelligently” last year and Rickets echoed that in his statement. Hoyer, too, doubled down on his own comments from a year ago. “I think last year we talked a lot about intelligent spending, and I think we’ll certainly look to do that again.”

The shape of that spending remains to be seen, but the club should have some money to work with. The club had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM this year, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a far cry from their previous high of $203MM in 2019. For next year, their commitments are currently around $109MM without factoring in arbitration-eligible players, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Looking at the arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, retaining the entire class would cost the Cubs around $25MM, though not all of those players will be tendered contracts.

Even if the club plans to roll out a similar payroll in 2023 as they did this year, they would have some room to work with, though it’s possible that number could go up. “If we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players, I have no doubt that we’ll have his blessing,” Hoyer said during a recent conference, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

It’s been previously reported that the Cubs have interest in pursuing this winter’s crop of marquee free agent shortstops, though it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in that pursuit. Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are slated for free agency, with Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Each of those four will require a significant investment, of course, with all of them likely to earn nine-figure deals. The Cubs haven’t given out a contract of that size since the Yu Darvish deal back in 2018, when they were much more firmly in win-now mode. If they don’t shop in the expensive aisle, there’s a significant drop to the next-best available shortstops, with Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus highlighting the second tier.

Of course, it’s also possible that the club uses its resources on players already on the roster, locking them up for future seasons via extension. Two players who could be candidates are outfielder Ian Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. When asked about whether the club has talked to those players about new contracts, Hoyer tells Lee that they have “taken the first steps.”

In the case of Happ, he has just a single year of team control remaining and is projected to earn a salary of about $10.6MM next season. Due to his approaching free agency, he was often mentioned in trade rumors this summer but ended up sticking with the Cubs beyond the deadline. 2022 was his sixth season in the big leagues, with Happ posting above-average offense in each of them. This year, his .271/.342/.440 batting line was 20% above league average, by measure of wRC+. His work in the outfield was also graded positively, leading to him producing 3.5 wins above replacement this year, in the eyes of FanGraphs. He just turned 28 and will therefore be heading into free agency shortly after his 29th birthday, meaning the Cubs would likely have to cut a decent check to get him to forgo that opportunity.

In Hoerner’s case, he’s just 25 and heading into his first arbitration season, projected to get a salary of $2.2MM next year. Given his extra control, it’s more likely that he will be playing for the next competitive Cubs team and could theoretically be a higher priority for the team. He had a very nice all-around season here in 2022, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 20 bases. He hit .281/.327/.410 for a wRC+ of 106 and also provided excellent shortstop defense, leading to a tally of 4.0 fWAR for the year.

Of course, if the Cubs succeed in convincing a free agent shortstop to join the club, they would have to figure out how to get that player into the lineup next to Hoerner. It seems the most likely path would be Hoerner moving over to second base, a position he has played before. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays that Hoyer doesn’t see a problem with moving Hoerner to the other side of the bag, especially with the new anti-shift rules that go into place next year. With less shifting, it’s possible teams will look to have an extra level of athleticism at the keystone to provide greater range, something that is less necessary with shifting.

“We have total confidence in Nico’s ability to play shortstop,” Hoyer says. “But, yes, the way the game is trending, athleticism in the middle infield will make a big difference.” It doesn’t seem like Hoerner would put up a fight if the club asked him to make the switch. “He actually gets mad when you talk about him, which is pretty amazing,” Hoyer said. “He wants to talk about the Cubs. He wants to talk about winning. He wants to talk about the culture. So it was pretty easy with him. As long as you’re talking about winning and what can make us great, Nico’s totally on board.”

There are still many directions the offseason can go for Chicago, and there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic than a year ago. Despite another losing season, the club finished strong, going 33-28 from the start of August until the end of the schedule. “We certainly want next season to look a lot more like our second half than our first half,” Hoyer says, per Lee. “And if it does, we do have a chance to be in the race and play meaningful games throughout the entire season. And, hopefully, that means competing in October.” How aggressive they are in bolstering their roster for next year will be determined in the months to come.

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Cubs Aren’t Trading Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

By Mark Polishuk | August 2, 2022 at 5:08pm CDT

After months of speculation, the Cubs will pass the trade deadline without moving two of their biggest trade chips.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Ian Happ will both be staying put in Wrigleyville.

It hasn’t exactly been a quiet deadline for the Cubs, as Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross have all been shipped out of town in the last few days.  But beyond this bullpen exodus, it seems that Chicago will be hanging onto its two most heavily-sought after position players, despite many rumors about other teams’ interest.

Clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres had been linked to Happ, who is hitting .279/.360/.436 over 408 plate appearances and was just named to his first All-Star team.  While Happ’s production has been somewhat inconsistent over his six MLB seasons, he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall, and also emerged as capable defensive player in center field.

Since Happ is arbitration-controlled through the 2023 season, there may not have been quite the urgency on Chicago’s part to move the 27-year-old unless another team stepped forward with a knockout offer.  The Cubs continue to give mixed signals about their near-term and longer-term plans to contend, yet since their most recent moves have trended towards more retooling, it is probably safe to guess that Happ will continue to feature in trade rumors throughout the offseason and up until next year’s deadline if Chicago isn’t in contention.

The lack of movement on Contreras, however, is harder to figure.  The longtime Cubs catcher is a free agent after the season, and since the team aggressively moved several pending free agents (i.e. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez) at last year’s deadline, it seemed like a sure bet that Contreras would follow suit this season.  If anything, it may have been a little surprising that Contreras wasn’t moved last year as well, except the idea that the Cubs wanted to keep the catcher and sign him to a contract extension also didn’t come to fruition.

The Mets, Rays, Padres, and Astros were all linked to Contreras in recent rumors, though Houston instead obtained Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox as a catching upgrade.  Tampa Bay acquired Christian Bethancourt earlier in July, and now he’ll stand as the Rays’ only catcher trade of deadline season.

As for other suitors, it could be that the Mets, Padres, and the ever-popular “mystery teams” simply didn’t step forward with an offer that met the Cubs’ liking.  San Diego will continue with the respectable Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem at catcher, and the smaller-scale depth addition of Cam Gallagher from the Royals.  (Plus, it could simply be most of the Padres’ trade attention was focused on larger matters like the Juan Soto blockbuster).  New York ended making only relatively minor upgrades instead of any big swings at the deadline, and the team will now have to continue to hope that James McCann can get back on track.

Another factor to consider is the recent lack of an agreement between the league and the players’ union about the implementation of an international player draft.  Since that deal wasn’t reached, the old qualifying offer system will remain in place throughout the life of the current collective bargaining agreement, and thus the Cubs would get a compensatory draft pick back for Contreras if he rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.  That means that essentially, other teams had to offer something that the Cubs preferred to that extra pick.

Even with all of this in mind, it is still surprising that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t find any kind of acceptable trade match for Contreras, either in the days leading up to the deadline or even back during the offseason.  Considering the lack of extension talks, it would seem unlikely that the two sides will match up on a new deal before Contreras hits the open market, or after he becomes a free agent and has 29 other teams to bid on his services.  Contreras has been open about the stress and uncertainty he has faced with all of this nonstop trade buzz, but while that noise will quiet, some awkwardness may remain over what could be his last two months in a Cubs uniform.

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Ian Happ Rumors: Deadline Day

By Tim Dierkes | August 2, 2022 at 8:39am CDT

The last time we checked in on Cubs outfielder Ian Happ, it was when ESPN’s Jeff Passan revealed last Friday that the team is “likely to trade him.”  Happ, 28 in August, has a 122 wRC+ on the season.  He’s got about $2.4MM remaining on his contract this year, and will be eligible for arbitration for 2023.  If the Cubs want to trade the 2015 first-rounder prior to the offseason, they’ve got fewer than nine hours to get it done.  Here’s the latest:

  • The Dodgers have looked at Happ, though apparently as a backup plan if they can’t land Juan Soto, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Rookie James Outman has garnered the Dodgers’ last couple of left field starts to great success, and Chris Taylor’s rehab assignment from a foot fracture begins tonight.
  • Last week, Robert Murray of Fansided noted that Happ had been “connected” to the Padres and Blue Jays.  The Padres are firmly in the Soto bidding, so Happ may serve as a backup plan for them as well.  The Jays’ outfield generally sets up as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez, with Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer providing backup.  Toronto tends to rest Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the DH spot when it’s not occupied by Alejandro Kirk.  While the Jays don’t seem to have a ton of room for Happ, MLB’s Jon Morosi notes that his ability to cover center field while Springer deals with a modest elbow injury is key.
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