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MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

Pitching Market Notes: Kikuchi, Kimbrel, Happ, Miller, EJax, Patton

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Changes in pitching usage seem likely to shake up the player market — but how? Jayson Stark of The Athletic takes a look at the question, which will in no small part be answered in this winter’s free agent market, in a subscription piece. The broad takeaway is that back-of-the-rotation starter types will still find a market, but perhaps won’t be pursued as forcefully in years past. (It seems fair to add that such pitchers may still be valued for their ability to eat innings, but may also not be asked to gobble up quite as many in hopes that they’ll be more effective.) Meanwhile, teams will perhaps be more willing than before to pay up for highly talented pitchers with durability questions.

Here’s the latest market chatter:

  • The Phillies intend to pursue Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. It bears noting that the Philadelphia organization is also said to be interested in quite a few other appealing free agent hurlers, but it’s particularly notable that the Phils like Kikuchi after watching him pitch in his native Japan. Per a report from the Japan Times, it seems that Kikuchi’s formal posting will be processed sooner than later.
  • If there are several starters on the menu for the Phillies, it seems they could also play at the upper reaches of the relief market. Morosi tweets that they are at least looking into top available closer Craig Kimbrel. Elsewhere, while a reunion between Kimbrel and the Red Sox can’t be counted out, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that it does not seem particularly likely, either. The vibe of the post is that the Boston organization is probably not preparing to out-bid the market on the veteran closer. Though Kimbrel would obviously still have appeal at a reasonable price, Cafardo seems to hint at relatively tepid interest. For instance, he writes, “Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future.”
  • Starter J.A. Happ is a popular early name on the market. The Twins can be counted among the many teams with interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see whether the southpaw ends up signing relatively early in the winter. The lefty has been much more than a steadying presence in recent season, with intriguing peripherals that suggest he’s better than ever even at 36 years of age. You can track all the prior and future rumors on Happ right here.
  • Veteran lefty Andrew Miller is “definitely seeking [a] multiyear commitment” in free agency, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. While some have guessed Miller might seek to reestablish some value with a pillow contract, that doesn’t seem to be his preference. There’s also solid early interest. Martino (here) and Morosi (Twitter link) each tie Miller to the Mets, with Martino also noting that the Yankees also are interested. More broadly, Martino writes that the Mets are looking into the entire free agent market for relief help, including the best (and most expensive) arms available. It is difficult to guess at this point how things will turn out, particularly since the Mets have so many bullpen openings. MLBTR gave its best guess recently, though, predicting the Mets would land a pair of notable relievers. As for Miller, we expect he’ll have strong, multi-year offers to choose from.
  • The Athletics have interest in a reunion with Edwin Jackson, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The 35-year-old still managed to average better than 94 mph on his four-seam fastball and got good results from a cutter that became his most-used pitch. One would think he will have multiple suitors after throwing 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, though the interest will be tempered by less-than-exciting peripherals (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 36.4% GB) that left ERA estimators rather unimpressed by his 2018 effort (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA). The Oakland organization secured excellent results from several bounceback hurlers this year and will surely weigh retaining at least some of them, even as it also seeks new possibilities.
  • Right-hander Spencer Patton could weigh a return stateside after two campaigns in Japan, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old may have found another gear while pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars. He worked to a 2.64 ERA in his 116 innings over the past two seasons, recording 10.3 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Patton failed to hold down a big league job despite receiving some opportunities in the past, though he is said to have found some added velocity of late. It seems he’s hearing from a few interested MLB organizations as the offseason gets underway.

Pitching Market Rumors: Braves, Happ, White Sox, Kelley, Padres, Cardinals

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The Braves are interested in adding a closer this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi at the GM Meetings (Twitter link). That’s a fairly broad term, especially in 2018-19, so there’ll be no shortage of options for the Atlanta organization to pursue. Former Braves star Craig Kimbrel, of course, headlines the free-agent class of relievers, while Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are among the most recognizable names on the next tier of a fairly deep class of a relievers. Trade targets are harder to pin down, though several names have been generally kicked around the rumor mill recently, including Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, San Diego’s Kirby Yates and Seattle’s Alex Colome. Several other names will become available as the season wears on, and the Braves figure to be connected to a wide swath of ’pen options as they look to add a high-leverage reliever to the mix.

Some more bullpen and rotation rumblings from the early stages of the offseason…

  • The Blue Jays met with J.A. Happ’s representatives today, tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. General manager Ross Atkins tells Davidi that Happ is “one of my favorite people in baseball” before also acknowledging that there’ll be ample competition for his services this offseason. Happ just turned 36, but despite the fact that he’s entering the later stages of his career, he remained as effective as ever in 2018. The veteran southpaw turned in 177 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA ball with a career-best 9.8 K/9 mark against 2.6 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 with a 40.1 percent grounder rate. Happ’s 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate was also the highest of his career, while his 31.7 percent chase rate was his second-best mark as a big leaguer. Fellow lefty Rich Hill received a three-year guarantee that stretched into his age-39 season a couple of years ago, so it’s conceivable that Happ could also find three-year offers (which would run into his age-38 campaign).
  • Morosi tweets that Happ and Patrick Corbin are among the names the White Sox have considered early in free agency, noting that the ChiSox only have one starter (Reynaldo Lopez) who threw more than 50 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA this past season. Rotation help is a clear area of need for the Sox, though competition for the likes of Corbin and Happ will be fierce. Both starters should draw interest from upwards of two thirds of the team in the league, with Corbin’s market being particularly robust given his status as the best arm on the 2018-19 free agent market.
  • Although veteran reliever Shawn Kelley suggested earlier this year that he could retire after the 2018 season, agent Mike McCann tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that Kelley has decided to suit up for another season (Twitter links). Dr. James Andrews recently performed X-rays and an MRI on Kelley and gave him a clean bill of health, Crasnick adds. Set to turn 35 in April, Kelley pitched to a strong 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 1.29 HR/9 in 49 innings this season. Kelley doesn’t throw hard (average 91.2 mph fastball in ’18) but has a lengthy track record of missing bats and has notched a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. The lone exception was a 2017 campaign in which he was limited to 26 innings due to a pair of back issues that landed him on the disabled list.
  • The Padres are in the market for starting pitching help this winter, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but they’ll focus on younger rotation options. San Diego’s goal, per Acee, would be to add someone to pitch at the front of the 2019 rotation and still contribute when the Friars are more concrete contenders. Unsurprisingly, he lists right-hander Nathan Eovaldi as a Padres target. Eovaldi has yet to turn 29, and his strong season split between the Rays and Red Sox — brought into a more mainstream focus with a big postseason showing — will place him on the radar for virtually every team seeking starting rotation help. San Diego did issue a club-record $144MM contract to Eric Hosmer last offseason and an $83MM extension to Wil Myers a year prior, indicating that new ownership isn’t afraid to spend money (though Eovaldi’s market almost certainly won’t push to those levels).
  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today that the organization has confidence that flamethrowing right-hander Jordan Hicks could succeed as the team’s closer next season, but that confidence doesn’t necessarily mean he will be in that role (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Goold notes that the Cards could add a left-handed and right-handed reliever this winter. The Cards overhauled their ’pen in significant fashion over the summer when they released Greg Holland, outrighted Tyler Lyons and traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners. Since that time, Bud Norris has hit the open market and Matthew Bowman has gone to the Reds via waivers, thus further adding to the potential for turnover.

Reds Exploring Rotation Market

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As expected on the heels of public comments from owner Bob Castellini about his desire to enhance the starting rotation, the Reds are showing early interest in the starting pitching market, per both Jon Heyman of Fancred and Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both reports list top free-agent starter Patrick Corbin as a pitcher of interest, while Morosi specifically lists J.A. Happ and Heyman adds Dallas Keuchel to the pile. While any of that bunch would be a high-profile addition for the Reds, who’ve largely avoided free agency in recent seasons, Heyman notes that Cincinnati “will consider” top-of-the-market names.

Of course, considering a top-of-the-market arm and actually luring one to Cincinnati are two very different things. As three of the top starters on the market, the trio of Corbin, Keuchel and Happ will have no shortage of interest from contending clubs with clearer paths to a postseason berth. Beyond that, Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is known as one of the game’s most hitter-friendly environments; to call it a tough sell to convince a top-tier starter to sign in a homer-conducive stadium with a team that lost 95 games in 2018 would be somewhat of an understatement.

[Related: MLBTR’s 2018-19 Free Agent Tracker]

It’s not clear how much money the Reds have to spend this offseason, though Castellini has recently promised a record payroll for the franchise. That certainly sounds encouraging for fans, though it should be noted that Cincinnati’s record payroll is $115MM, and they’re already projected by MLBTR’s Jason Martinez to head into 2019 with a near-$110MM payroll. Both Corbin and Keuchel are candidates to secure $20MM+ annual salaries, and Happ’s annual salary on a new contract figures to check in north of $12MM. Free-agent contracts could, of course, be backloaded — as could a potential offseason extension for second baseman Scooter Gennett. Doing so would lower the team’s projected commitments for the 2019 season and ramp up spending into 2020 and beyond, when Homer Bailey’s albatross deal will be off the books.

It remains difficult to envision the Reds winning a bidding war with larger-market clubs coming off winning seasons and playoff berths, but the very fact that they’re exploring this tier of free agency is a departure from recent offseasons and, accordingly, is of some note. Whether Castellini, president of baseball ops Dick Williams, GM Nick Krall and the rest of the organization’s leadership can persuade a top-notch starter to sign for the next several years, it seems likely that the Reds will be adding some external help to the rotation. Matt Harvey was reportedly a favorite of Castellini during his four-month run with the organization, so at the very least, the Reds could make an earnest run at retaining him and adding another established arm to a rotation whose only locks at present seem to be Anthony DeSclafani and Luis Castillo.

AL East Notes: Yanks, Happ, Sabathia, O’s, Gaston, Rays, Baldelli

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A few notes from the AL East:

  • With the offseason now underway for the Yankees, general manager Brian Cashman discussed several topics of interest in an interview with Mike Francesa of WFAN earlier this week. As free agency and trade season approach, the Yankees are expected to be among the majors’ most active teams in the starting pitching market – especially considering left-handers J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia are without contracts. Indeed, Cashman revealed: “We’re excited about adding to our rotation. It’s going to be a focus point for us, and there’s going to be a lot of competition, regardless of the available players out there. We need to continue to reinforce that rotation.” As for Happ and Sabathia, Cashman declared that “they’re going to get a lot of consideration, not just from us but from a lot of people.” The 36-year-old Happ, whom New York acquired from Toronto in July, fit in well with the Yankees during the regular season and is now fresh off his fourth straight strong campaign. He seems like a shoo-in to land a multiyear deal, whereas Sabathia, 38, may have to settle for his second consecutive one-year pact. A Yankee since 2009, Sabathia re-signed with the team for $10MM last offseason and then continued his late-career renaissance during the 2018 campaign.
  • Although the Orioles lost out on the Mesa brothers, two highly touted outfield prospects who chose the Marlins over the O’s on Saturday, Baltimore’s still “hopeful” about signing young right-hander Sandy Gaston, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. Even after their Saturday signings, the Marlins may still try for Gaston – who, like the Mesas, hails from Cuba – but the Orioles could easily outbid them (or anyone else) at this point.
  • Even though he has never managed at any level, Rays coach Rocco Baldelli has interviewed with five skipper-needy teams in recent weeks. Despite his inexperience, it’s no surprise the 37-year-old has drawn serious interest from teams seeking a manager, argues the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, who notes Baldelli packages youth, intelligence, communication skills and a knowledge of analytics. That’s a coveted blend in the modern game, and as Topkin points out, it doesn’t hurt that a.) Baldelli comes with front office/scouting experience and b.) is part of a club that just wrapped up a successful season under his boss, manager Kevin Cash. The Cash-led Rays plan to return the same coaching staff in 2019, Topkin reports, though they may have to replace Baldelli.

GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Offseason, Manager Search

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Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins discussed some of his team’s offseason plans in an end-of-season chat with reporters (including the Athletic’s John Lott, and Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith) on Tuesday.  Some of the highlights…

  • The team has been in contact with a few managerial candidates already, though the Jays are still “gathering information” on their list of candidates, Atkins said.  Initial phone interviews with 10 or more candidates will begin within the week, with a final field of around five candidates then selected for in-person interviews with various members of the Jays organization.  The connection between the manager and the franchise as a whole is an important factor, as Atkins describes his ideal hire as possessing an “understanding what it takes for communication to keep not just [a] 25-man roster, but also the 40-man roster, the 200 minor-league players, the 100-plus scouts, the 100-plus coaches and medical staff people pulling in one direction and feeling connected.  That person has to be an organizational leader and spokesperson, not just a leader of the 25-man clubhouse.”
  • Bench coach DeMarlo Hale and Double-A manager John Schneider are two of the in-house candidates, and it seems as if the Blue Jays are leaning towards people with some type of managing or coaching background.  The new Jays manager “will have experience leading,” Atkins said.  “That is something extremely important for us.”  The new manager must also be adept at requesting and interpreting the available analytical information, with Atkins specifying that while the manager (and not the front office) will still handle all in-game decision-making.  Beyond these requirements, the Blue Jays will “cast as big a net as time and bandwidth can handle” in looking for a new manager, Atkins said.
  • The Jays will be open to re-signing Marco Estrada or possibly bringing back J.A. Happ, who was dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  Atkins said that Toronto will first focus on the trade market before looking at free agents, however, and “We’d be looking for complementary pieces, and I think the focus would be slightly more short-term.”  This would seem to count out a pursuit of Happ, who wouldn’t require a long contract (he turns 36 later this month), but his solid performance will likely price him out of the Jays’ range.
  • There will be a focus on adding arms to the organization, with Atkins noting “we need to turn some of our position-player depth into pitching.  That doesn’t mean we won’t trade from our young core or guys that haven’t even gotten to the major leagues.”  Some of the names on the move could be prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, as the Jays have a 40-man roster crunch forthcoming and not everyone can be protected.  As it is, Atkins expects to lose at least one player in the Rule 5 Draft in December.
  • Beyond pitching, Atkins said Toronto will also prioritize improving the team’s poor defense and baserunning.
  • After Troy Tulowitzki spent the entire 2018 season on the disabled list, Atkins said that the veteran shortstop’s status for 2019 “starts with health.”  When asked if Tulowitzki can still be an everyday player amidst the Jays’ younger infield options, Atkins answered “If Tulo’s healthy and performing at a very high rate, then yes. If he’s healthy and his performance isn’t to the calibre that major-league environments demand, then no.”  Tulowitzki has been adamant about remaining at shortstop, though it remains to be seen if he can handle any position at all given his lengthy injury history over the years; in addition to missing 2018, Tulowitzki averaged just 98 games a season from 2012-17.  Obviously Tulowitzki has virtually no trade value in the wake of his lost year, so the Jays might have to consider releasing him and eating the $38MM still owed to him through 2020.

Heyman’s Latest: Blevins, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Happ, Straily, Urena, Marlins

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“There’s been some trade talk of late involving Mets reliever Jerry Blevins,” Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman reports in his weekly roundup of baseball notes.  Blevins has posted a 2.65 ERA and 38 strikeouts (against 13 walks) over 34 innings since May 1, and even his inflated April ERA was largely due to one disastrous outing against the Braves.  He is eligible to be dealt since he cleared revocable trade waivers in August, and the veteran southpaw could provide a boost to a team looking for left-handed relief help (though Blevins is actually in the midst of a reverse-splits season, dominating right-handed batters and getting hit hard by lefty batters).  While Blevins could help get a team into the playoffs, however, he wouldn’t be eligible for postseason play himself due to being dealt after the August 31st deadline.  Blevins is a free agent after the year and is owed roughly $583K in remaining salary.

Here’s more from Heyman’s notes…

  • In more Mets news, the team has over 30 names on its list of general manager candidates, though the interview process has yet to begin.  As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier this week, the Mets plan to have their new hire in place before the GM Meetings begin on November 4.
  • Even with the Dodgers in jeopardy of missing the postseason, it doesn’t appear that manager Dave Roberts, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, or GM Farhan Zaidi are in any danger of losing their jobs.  It seems as if this season could be seen as an aberration, given that L.A. has been beset by injuries yet still leads the National League in run-differential.  (The Baseball Reference standings page notes that the Dodgers are eight wins behind their expected Pythagorean win-loss record.)  While management changes don’t seem to be afoot, there will likely be some type of contract talks among Dodgers brass this offseason since Friedman is only under contract through the 2019 season.  Roberts is already in the last guaranteed year of his deal, though the Dodgers have a club option on his services for 2019.
  • The Red Sox didn’t put much focus on relief pitching at the trade deadline, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski noting that “If we addressed the bullpen, then there’d be other needs we’d have.  It wasn’t that we weren’t open to some moves. But we addressed some of our other priorities.”  Boston was linked to multiple relievers in trade rumors but didn’t find a fit anywhere.  In regards to one name in particular, Dombrowski said that “we couldn’t touch” Roberto Osuna, who the Astros acquired from the Blue Jays in a deal that generated quite a bit of controversy, given the domestic assault charges still pending against him.  The bullpen has been seen as a possible Achilles’ heel for an otherwise dominant Red Sox team, though as Dombrowski observed, Boston’s relief corps still ranks within the top ten in most major categories.
  • Heyman expects the Yankees to try and re-sign J.A. Happ in free agency.  The southpaw has done nothing but impress since coming to New York from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade; Happ has a 2.70 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 4.78 K/BB rate over 46 2/3 innings in the pinstripes.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently projected that Happ’s next contract could exceed $40MM over three years, as the veteran is still posting strong numbers even as he approaches his age-36 season.  Retaining Happ would go a long ways towards solidifying a Yankees rotation that has only Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka as certainties for 2019.
  • With the Marlins still years away from contending, they could consider trading Dan Straily or Jose Urena this offseason even though the two starters still have two and three years, respectively, of arbitration control remaining.  This added control, of course, could also entice suitors to give up more in a potential deal.  Straily has been mentioned in trade rumors ever since Miami began its fire sale last year, though the team held onto him through the deadline and pulled him back from revocable waivers in August after an unknown club submitted a claim.

An Early Look At J.A. Happ’s Next Contract

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As you may or may not recall, we have been touting J.A. Happ for a fair portion of the present season, dating at least to our first ranking of the top summer trade candidates. The veteran southpaw has certainly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations since he ended up being traded. Now, as he prepares for the postseason with the Yankees, it’s worth taking an early look at his potential free-agent earnings.

Happ, of course, already went on the market not long ago. At the time, he was coming off of an oddball 2015 season that he finished in dominating form. His resulting three-year, $36MM deal certainly rewarded a strong late-year push from a pitcher who had — just months before — seemed at risk of entering a late-career journeyman phase.

That pact worked out swimmingly for the Jays, who received 77 generally excellent starts from Happ before spinning him off to the division-rival Yanks for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. For New York, the tail end of the deal has been quite a nice asset as well.

In his past eight starts, in fact, Happ has allowed just 14 earned runs on 38 hits, with a 43:9 K/BB ratio, over 46 2/3 innings. For the year, he has averaged a career-high 9.7 K/9 on a personal-best 10.3% swinging-strike rate It’s not all roses, of course. The quality results have come in spite of the fact that Happ has struggled to limit the long ball, allowing 1.4 per nine on the season.

All said, Happ has probably deserved the results — a 3.75 ERA in 160 2/3 innings — that he has produced on the year. The dingers have driven up his FIP (4.01), but xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.60) suggest his outcomes matchhis performance.

Looking ahead, the outlook seems promising. Happ is throwing as hard as ever. His output has been steady and excellent for some time now. And he has a rather long track record of durability, having averaged 153 innings for the past eight seasons and 168 annually for the past four (which will go up when 2018 is completed).

It’s possible that Happ will slot in behind Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, and Dallas Keuchel to become the fourth-highest-paid starter on this lefty-loaded market. Certainly, the more youthful Gio Gonzalez could also stake a claim to the fourth spot, particularly if he finishes strong, but he has had some rough patches this year and his velocity decline remains a concern. Charlie Morton would be in the same general position as Happ, in terms of his age, but with a more impressive recent showing. In his case, though, he has strongly suggested he won’t just be seeking to maximize an overall contract guarantee; if anything, Morton sounds like a man who’ll only sign on for a single season at a time. Fellow veteran southpaw Cole Hamels could surely also be a factor, particularly at a somewhat younger age, though it remains to be seen how clubs will view the sustainability of his recent performance boost since moving via trade.

Regardless of the precise rank ordering, Happ’s general market position makes eminently possible that a fair number of contending teams will view him as a more appealing target than some of the younger, more expensive pitchers ahead of him. Capturing a quality arm for a shorter term, after all, holds appeal in and of itself. There’s no real chance of Happ signing for more than three years, while it could take a five-year commitment to land Corbin or Keuchel. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that signing Happ won’t mean giving up draft picks since he’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.

So, supposing there’s steady interest in Happ, what’s the contractual upside here? As noted, there’s no real argument for his reps to pursue a four-year term given his age. Happ will be selling his age-36 season and beyond.

That gives us a rather clear bound. But it doesn’t mean Happ can’t still earn quite well. In fact, two recent comps suggest he can. Entering his age-37 season, coming off of an excellent campaign, John Lackey secured a two-year, $32MM commitment from the Cubs. Even more recently, Rich Hill reached three guaranteed years at the same $16MM AAV despite the fact that he, too, was also entering his age-37 year and had no shortage of historical injury issues.

In each of those cases, perhaps, stellar outcomes helped to drive the paydays. Happ, arguably, hasn’t impressed to the same degree in his immediate platform year. But we already know he could secure a $12MM annual commitment. His steady velocity is a highly notable consideration. And the three-year run-up to this free agency has been stellar. (As of right now: 501 innings of 3.47 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.)

So, there’s certainly a case to be made that Happ ought to out-earn his last contract on an otherwise similar arrangements. Even if he doesn’t quite reach the $16MM annual value level of those prior (and somewhat older) comps, Happ has a very strong chance to achieve more than a $40MM guarantee over a three-year term. And the yearly value could even rise beyond the Lackey/Hill levels if there’s particularly robust interest or if Happ prefers a two-year arrangement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Quick Hits: Bumgarner, Strasburg, Correa, Happ

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Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News boldly calls Madison Bumgarner’s contract situation the Giants’ “elephant in the room”. Crowley wonders whether Bumgarner must be traded in order to spark a rebuild for the club, who failed to make any significant moves at the trade deadline and now sit at 57-58 on the season after struggling to the league’s worst record last year (tied with the Tigers, of course). Whether the club ultimately decides to “rebuild or remodel”, Bumgarner’s the only player on the roster whose contract might warrant teams forking over a significant prospect return; something an aging Giants team could certainly use. Crowley describes Bumgarner’s future as “uncertain” in the amidst a mediocre team with a gargantuan payroll.

More on a few interesting items from around MLB this evening…

  • The Nationals received some welcome news on Stephen Strasburg today, as the right-hander reportedly “felt good” after tossing a 42-pitch bullpen session. According to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post, he’s likely to throw another one tomorrow and could potentially embark upon a rehab assignment soon thereafter. He’s been on the DL since June 26th with a cervical nerve impingement, but on the bright side he was cleared of any structural damage in his shoulder shortly thereafter.
  • The Astros appear to be even closer to getting a valuable asset back on the field, as Carlos Correa was spotted at Minute Maid Park today, with Christian Boutwell of MLB.com among those eye witnesses. Though he was inactive for today’s game, the former Rookie of the Year shortstop believes he could be back on the field as soon as tomorrow. Correa’s having a down season by his standards, hitting .268/.352/.480 with a slightly-bloated 24.4% strikeout rate.
  • The Yankees, for their part, already got a notable player back from the DL. J.A. Happ was activated today, filling the roster spot left vacant after they optioned Chance Adams to Triple-A last night. Happ’s been on the DL with hand, foot and mouth disease for the past week plus, but will return to the rotation and attempt to provide the value the Bombers envisioned when they traded Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney in order to obtain him. Happ’s posted a 4.05 ERA through 21 starts

Yankees To Place J.A. Happ On DL

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The Yankees will send just-acquired lefty J.A. Happ to the 10-day disabled list, per George A. King III of the New York Post (via Twitter). He has been dealing with a bout of hand, foot and mouth disease, which likely explains the placement.

Happ had been scheduled to start on Saturday in a showdown with the division-rival Red Sox. The Boston organization will be throwing their own recent deadline acquisition, Nathan Eovaldi, though it’s also missing a lefty for the series after placing Chris Sale on the DL recently.

At the moment, it seems there’s little reason to fear that Happ will miss significant action. That’s obviously the hope in the Bronx, given that the organization just made the southpaw its major rotation addition in advance of the trade deadline. Happ’s first outing was a promising one, as he spun six frames of three-hit, one-run ball.

In his absence, the Yanks could conceivably turn to any of their three extra 40-man starters — Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Luis Cessa — though it seems it’ll be Cessa. DJ Eberle of the Times Leader tweeted last night that the righty will be promoted along with recently acquired first baseman Luke Voit.

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