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A.J. Preller, Mike Rizzo Discuss Juan Soto Trade

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We’re a week removed from one of the biggest blockbusters in MLB history, the deal that sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals to the Padres for five young players and first baseman Luke Voit. Jeff Passan of ESPN takes a long look into the process that eventually led to the deal in a piece that’s well worth a read in full.

A Soto trade seemed unfathomable around a month before the deadline, with Washington general manager Mike Rizzo flatly stating the club wouldn’t deal him. That was before Soto passed on a 15-year, $440MM extension offer that apparently represented the Nationals final offer. At that point, Rizzo and his staff reversed course and turned their attention to the trade market. Passan writes the Nationals identified the Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Rangers and Blue Jays as a preliminary list of teams with the kind of young talent to pull off a deal.

According to Passan, the Nats had whittled that down to a trio of the Cardinals, Dodgers and Padres by the final week of July. With St. Louis reportedly reluctant to include Dylan Carlson in a package that also included a number of top prospects, Los Angeles and San Diego became the final two. Passan relays that San Diego and Washington higher-ups really gathered momentum late into the evening of August 1, the night before the trade deadline. A late entrant to discussions was the inclusion of Bell, one of the top rental bats available, to convince the Friars to part with high-upside 18-year-old pitcher Jarlin Susana. By the middle of the night on August 1-2, Passan reports, the parties agreed to the package of young talent that’d go back to Washington pending review of medical records the next morning. (Passan adds the humorous anecdote that San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller then continued working deep into the night on additional trade possibilities before falling asleep in the middle of a conversation with a member of his scouting staff).

While the initial iteration of the deal included Eric Hosmer going to Washington, the first baseman exercised his limited no-trade protection to block the deal. San Diego pivoted and traded Hosmer to the Red Sox, and Passan writes that San Diego and Washington had each previously agreed that one of Voit or Wil Myers could take Hosmer’s place in the event he refused to waive his no-trade clause.

“We did as well as we could do,” Rizzo opined to Passan. “You lost a Hall of Famer at 23, but I think we expedited our reboot. When you’re looking at the alternative, the same narrative would’ve been out there this winter. If you don’t trade him now, what are you doing in the offseason? I give the Padres’ ownership credit. And I give A.J. credit because he’s not afraid to make a trade like this. And I give our ownership credit.”

Preller went into detail about his team’s involvement in the Soto discussions during an appearance this afternoon on The Show, a podcast from the New York Post with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman. The San Diego baseball operations leader confirmed the Nationals identified his system as one of a handful that could support a blockbuster of this magnitude early in the process.

“We could tell we were going to be one of the final teams if we wanted to participate,” Preller told the Post. “You never know if you’re going to be the team. It’s like anything else, there’s going to be two or three teams that all have really strong packages. … There was just a lot of debate and discussion for us over the next few weeks about the right thing to do, the right players to give up.”

Once the sides were nearing agreement on the prospect return, the onus fell on San Diego to push the deal across the finish line, Preller explains. “At the end, you have to decide. Do you want to do this or not? That’s kind of the gut-check at the end, when the Nats put it on you: ’this five or six-player package gets it done.’ That’s when you come back into the room with your small group of people and (owner) Peter Seidler. It’s on the table if we want to do this. And if we don’t do it, ultimately we have to live with the fact that he may go elsewhere. … At the end of the day, you have to make that decision.”

Obviously, Preller and his group decided to pull the trigger, although he indicated the club wasn’t narrowly focused on a Soto deal. Preller confirmed to the Post that San Diego was involved in discussions with the Angels about Shohei Ohtani. He said there was some but not entire overlap in the young players of interest to both Washington and Anaheim but indicated the Angels were ultimately unwilling to part with Ohtani. Heyman reported last week that Angels owner Arte Moreno wouldn’t sign off on an Ohtani trade while Mike Trout is on the injured list.

Padres fans and/or anyone interested in additional details about San Diego’s trade talks will want to check out Preller’s interview with Heyman and Sherman in full. Preller also discussed the necessity of balancing a roster with star talent and depth, the acquisition of All-Star reliever Josh Hader from the Brewers, plans for rehabbing star Fernando Tatis Jr., and his team’s struggles against the Dodgers among other topics.

Padres Acquire Juan Soto, Josh Bell; C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Luke Voit Among Six Players Back To Nationals

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The Padres pulled off the biggest deadline deal in years, announcing the acquisition of both Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals. San Diego sent back a haul of young talent to complete the blockbuster. Rookie shortstop C.J. Abrams and left-hander MacKenzie Gore are headed to Washington, as are a trio of highly-regarded prospects: outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, and pitcher Jarlin Susana. To round out the deal, the Nats are picking up big league first baseman Luke Voit.

It’s a stunning blockbuster, one of the most seismic trades in major league history. There’s almost no precedent for a player of Soto’s caliber being dealt, particularly not with multiple seasons of remaining club control. The lefty-hitting outfielder is among the game’s top handful of players, a superstar performer who has amazingly yet to turn 24 years old. Soto debuted in the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2018, having played just eight games above A-ball at the time. Even holding his head above water would’ve been impressive in that context, but Soto immediately stepped into the majors as of its best hitters.

Soto hit .292/.406/.517 in 116 games as a rookie. He’s followed that up with successively elite offensive seasons, looking well on his way to being an all-time great hitter. Between 2019-21, Soto hit .304/.440/.561. He averaged more than 25 home runs per year (even with the 2020 schedule being dramatically shortened) and drew plenty more walks than strikeouts. Soto finished in the top ten in NL MVP balloting each season, including a runner-up finish last year. He was an integral part of the Nationals’ World Series winner in 2019, following up a .282/.401/.548 regular season performance with a .277/.373/.554 showing during that year’s postseason. Along the way, Soto claimed a pair of Silver Slugger Awards and was selected to the All-Star Game in 2021.

The 2022 campaign hasn’t been Soto’s best, but a “down” season by his standards would be a career year for most players. Through 436 plate appearances, he’s hitting .246/.408/.485. He’s drawn walks in an MLB-best 20.9% of his trips to the dish while striking out just 14.2% of the time. He’s tied for 17th in the majors with 21 longballs, and he’s third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances in on-base percentage (.408). That’s in spite of a .243 batting average on balls in play that’s easily the lowest mark of his career, nowhere close to .330 figure he carried into the season. The lesser ball in play results do reflect a slight downturn in his batted ball quality, but Soto’s batted ball metrics and exit velocities are better than his actual batting average and slugging output might suggest.

It wasn’t long ago that trading a hitter of this caliber would’ve seemed unfathomable. The Nationals are less than three years removed from their aforementioned championship. Even after a last place finish in 2020, Washington was in win-now mode heading into 2021. A swoon just before last summer’s trade deadline dropped them near the bottom of the National League and kicked off a major reboot that saw stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber traded. All those players were within their final season and a half of remaining control, however, while Soto was still more than three years from free agency at the time. There was seemingly never any consideration on the Nats part to dealing him either last summer or over the offseason.

That remained the case just two months ago, when Washington general manager Mike Rizzo flatly declared the club was “not trading” Soto. That was before their latest (and ultimately final) attempt to sign him to a long-term deal. After Soto rejected a 13-year, $350MM extension offer last offseason, the Nationals reengaged with his representatives this summer. Soto again turned down the Nationals overtures — this time a 15-year, $440MM proposal — and the club pivoted to the trade market.

One could certainly argue whether that was the right course of action for the franchise to take. Even if the organization were convinced that signing Soto to an extension was untenable, they didn’t have to move him this summer. Soto is arbitration-eligible through 2024, so Washington could’ve held onto him until next winter or merely proceeded year-by-year through the arb process and tried to put a contending roster back around him. Rizzo and his staff decided against that course of action. The Nationals have a barren farm system and have curtailed payroll in recent seasons while the Lerner family explores a sale of the franchise. Turning around a team with an NL-worst 35-69 record within the next two years would’ve been an immense challenge even with Soto on the roster, and the Nats are now fully embracing a rebuild that’ll likely take multiple seasons.

That decision will be a tough pill to swallow for at least some segment of the fanbase. Washington has now seen the departures of Scherzer, Turner, Anthony Rendon and Soto within the past few years — dramatically overhauling the franchise’s best clubs since it moved to Washington. They’re surely hopeful that players like Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz and the package of young players they’re receiving in the Soto deal will comprise a core of another contender down the road, but there’s no denying how quickly the Nationals fell from the top after winning the title three seasons back.

On the other side of the equation, the Padres are landing one of the sport’s preeminent superstars to bolster an already star-studded roster. The Friars have gone in the opposite direction of the Nationals over the past few years, coming out of their rebuild in 2020 with an excellent young core after years of building the farm system. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his group have shown a willingness to swing for marquee talent time and again. They’ve signed Manny Machado to a huge free agent contract and swung blockbuster trades for players like Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger. For as aggressive as Preller’s been over his eight years running baseball ops, he’s never had a two-day stretch like this. The Friars sent closer Taylor Rogers, righty Dinelson Lamet and two prospects to land star reliever Josh Hader from the Brewers yesterday. He’s now followed up with the kind of blockbuster that’ll define his front office tenure.

The Padres enter play Tuesday with a 58-46 record. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot and a likely playoff team, but even adding Soto and Hader is unlikely to give them much of a chance at erasing a 12-game deficit to the Dodgers in the NL West. The acquisition is both about solidifying their hold on a playoff spot for this season and adding another impact bat alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. and Machado for the next few seasons. The Padres could theoretically try to reengage Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation about a possible long-term pact, but the more likely scenario would seem to be that he’ll spend the remainder of his arbitration seasons in San Diego.

To get the deal done, the Friars reportedly outbid some of their National League competitors. The Cardinals and Dodgers were generally viewed among San Diego’s top rivals in the bidding for Soto, and there’s surely an added bonus in keeping him away from teams whom San Diego could plausibly meet in the postseason for the next few years. Preller and his staff probably have no small amount of satisfaction in topping the Dodgers’ offers after Los Angeles stepped in to land Scherzer from Washington last summer — not long after reports emerged that San Diego was closing in on a Scherzer agreement with the Nats.

While Soto is obviously the headlining piece of the deal, Bell is far more than an ancillary throw-in. He’s one of the top bats to change hands this summer himself, a player who ranked #3 on MLBTR’s list of the top deadline trade candidates. Bell is one of the more well-rounded hitters in the sport. He’s a switch-hitting power bat who topped out with 37 home runs with the Pirates back in 2019. While that was probably inflated somewhat by the livelier baseball used during that season, Bell has continued to hit for above-average power in the years since then. After a down year in the shortened 2020 campaign, Bell rebounded to connect on 27 longballs during his first season in Washington. He’s hit another 14 homers and 24 doubles through 437 plate appearances this season.

Unlike most power hitters of his ilk, Bell also brings strong bat-to-ball skills to the table. He’s striking out in only 14% of his trips this season, his lowest rate since his rookie year and markedly below the league average. Bell has paired that with quality plate discipline manifesting in an 11.2% walk rate and an overall .302/.384/.493 line. Since being traded to Washington heading into the 2021 season, he’s a .278/.363/.483 hitter in a hair above 1000 plate appearances.

Bell is a pure rental, as he’ll be a free agent for the first time after this season. He’s playing the year on a $10MM salary, around $3.57MM of which is yet to be paid out. He’s limited to first base or designated hitter, but most public metrics agree Bell has played his way to roughly average at first after posting well below-average numbers earlier in his career. While he’s unlikely to ever win a Gold Glove Award, Bell should be a perfectly fine first baseman for the final few months.

A midseason trade not only affords Bell the opportunity to depart a last place club for a contender, it should also boost his free agent stock next offseason. The Nationals were likely to make him a qualifying offer, which would’ve required a signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space after Bell rejected. Players traded midseason the year before free agency are ineligible for a QO, however, so a trade means Bell’s market won’t be hampered by compensation a few months from now.

Taking on what remains of Soto’s $17.1MM salary (approximately $6.1MM) and Bell’s remaining money — coupled with the Hader trade — is sure to push the Friars beyond the luxury tax threshold. Ownership had reportedly been reluctant to exceed that marker for a second straight year, but the opportunity to add this kind of impact talent compelled them to change their thinking. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates the franchise’s post-trade deadline CBT number around $242MM, a fair bit north of the $230MM base threshold. As a payor for a second straight year, they’ll be taxed at a 30% rate on their first $20MM above the threshold, coming out to approximately $3.7MM in extra fees.

With the chance to transform their roster, majority owner Peter Seidler and company signed off on the addition to an already franchise-record payroll. San Diego presumably plans to remain among the league’s highest-payroll clubs in the coming years, as Martinez projects them for $128MM in guaranteed commitments (with a $157MM CBT figure) for next season. That doesn’t include what’s sure to be another massive arbitration raise for Soto — likely into the $25+MM range — although Bell could depart this winter. It’s a territory with which the franchise is evidently now comfortable, and they’ll be rewarded for their aggressiveness with one of the sport’s most entertaining rosters.

In order to add that kind of star power, the Padres had to be prepared to part with a massive package of young talent. The Nationals had reportedly set an asking price of five-plus young major leaguers and/or prospects in any Soto talks, and that’s what they’ll receive. Abrams is presumably the first player of the deal Washington fans will see at Nationals park, as he’s likely to soon join the MLB roster.

The sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, Abrams almost immediately played his way towards the top of prospect lists in pro ball. A left-handed hitter with plus bat-to-ball skills and elite speed, he performed quite well in the low minors. The Georgia native missed a fair bit of action, with the cancelation of the 2020 minor league season and a left leg injury that ended his 2021 campaign in July. That kept Abrams to just 42 games above A-ball entering this year, but the Friars nevertheless carried him on the big league roster after losing Tatis to a wrist fracture.

The 21-year-old has struggled in his big league experience to date, hitting .232/.285/.320 through his first 46 games. That’s not unexpected for a player with his lack of experience, though, and Abrams remains a very highly-touted young player. Optioned to Triple-A El Paso midway through the year, he responded with a .314/.364/.507 showing through 30 games to earn another MLB call. He’s played sporadically at each of shortstop, second base and in the outfield with a win-now team in San Diego, but he should have a clearer path to everyday playing time at shortstop on the Nationals.

Abrams checked in as the game’s #11 prospect on Baseball America’s recent top 100, with the outlet reaffirming that his bat-to-ball skills and athleticism give him a chance to be a franchise shortstop. Abrams’ relatively narrow frame doesn’t lead to huge power projection, but he’s credited with possible 15-20 homer pop at his peak. There’s some debate whether he’ll stick at shortstop or should eventually move to second base or center field, but he’s certain to play up the middle somewhere and could be a traditional top-of-the-order type.

The Padres decision to option Abrams to Triple-A was quite likely more motivated by his struggles at the MLB level than any kind of service time gaming. It did have the effect, however, of ensuring he won’t reach a full year of service this season. He remains controllable through the end of the 2028 season, and future optional assignments could push that trajectory back even further.

Gore would’ve joined Abrams in soon appearing on the MLB roster, but he’s currently on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. The Padres were targeting a September return for the 23-year-old southpaw, although it’s seemingly possible he doesn’t make it back to the mound this season. That’s largely immaterial for the Nationals, who are obviously looking well into the future anyhow. It doesn’t seem the club has real long-term concerns about Gore’s arm health.

If healthy, Gore is among the more interesting young arms in the sport. The third overall pick in the 2017 draft, he quickly developed into the game’s top pitching prospect after dominating lower level hitters. Then came a rough two-season stretch between 2020-21. Gore reportedly struggled with his mechanics and battled extreme wildness at the alternate training site the former year, then had an up-and-down 2021 season that saw the club send him back to the complex for a stretch to reset in a lower-pressure environment. Gore righted the ship to some extent, returned to an affiliate late in the year, and began this season at Triple-A.

After one appearance, Gore was promoted to make his major league debut. He went on to make 13 starts while the club navigated injuries to Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger, pitching to a 4.27 ERA with a solid 23.1% strikeout rate. Gore’s 11.5% walk percentage remained a bit high, but it wasn’t anywhere near the level of control concerns he’d had in prior seasons. San Diego moved him to the bullpen for three outings in order to keep tabs on his innings, and Gore was hit hard before going on the IL.

Whether the elbow issue played into Gore’s late struggles or not, he’s still a plenty sensible inclusion in the deal for the Nationals. He’s a high-end athlete with a fastball that averages just under 95 MPH and a pair of promising breaking pitches. Gore is likely to eclipse a full year of service in 2022, putting him on track to potentially reach free agency after the 2027 campaign. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, however, and any future optional stints could push back his path to the market.

Alongside the two big leaguers, the Nationals bring in a trio of highly-regarded prospects. Like Abrams, Hassell and Wood are regarded as top five prospects in the Padres farm system and among the top 60 minor league players in the game, according to Baseball America. Susana’s not quite at that level, but BA recently slotted him as the Padres #10 prospect.

Hassell, 21 this month, was the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft. He’s a lefty-hitting outfielder who brings a generally well-rounded center field profile. The Tennessee native is regarded as a future plus hitter, and while he doesn’t have overwhelming power, he brings strong bat-to-ball skills and plenty of defensive value. Through 346 plate appearances in High-A this season, Hassell owns a .299/.379/.467 line with ten homers, 20 stolen bases, a lofty 11% walk rate and a solid 19.1% strikeout percentage.

Wood, 19, was the Friars second-round pick last season. A toolsy high school outfielder from Florida, he had swing-and-miss concerns as a draft prospect that led to some questions about his ability to consistently tap into his huge power potential. The 6’7″ outfielder has reportedly made major changes to his mechanics since entering pro ball, however, and he’s tearing the cover off the ball in Low-A. Across 236 plate appearances, the lefty-hitting Wood owns a .337/.453/.601 line. He’s popped 10 homers, swiped 15 bases and has a robust 15.7% walk rate against a more than manageable 17.8% strikeout rate. BA suggests he could be a middle-of-the-order bat capable of swatting 30-plus homers annually at his peak.

Susana, 18, just signed in this past international amateur class. A 6’6″ right-hander, he’s already been clocked into the mid-upper 90s with a plus slider. Susana’s youth and distance from the majors — he’s yet to advance past the complex level — make him a high-risk prospect, but BA notes that he’s a similar caliber of prospect as the same-aged high school pitchers who went in the first round of last month’s domestic amateur draft.

Finally, the Nationals round out the return with Voit. A late entrant to the discussions after Eric Hosmer refused to waive his no-trade rights to go to Washington (leading to his subsequent trade to the Red Sox), Voit moves to both replace Bell in the Washington lineup and offset some salary. Acquired from the Yankees over the offseason, Voit has played in 82 games with San Diego. The 2020 home run champ, he hasn’t managed to replicate that kind of production over the last two seasons. He hit a slightly above-average level in the Bronx last year while battling injuries, and it’s been a fairly similar story in San Diego.

Through 344 plate appearances, Voit owns a .225/.317/.416 line with 13 homers. He’s striking out at a personal-worst 32% rate, but he’s hit for decent enough power to post overall offensive production a bit above par. He’ll presumably see the bulk of first base playing time down the stretch in the nation’s capital. Voit is arbitration-eligible through 2024, although he may be a non-tender candidate, since he’d otherwise be due a raise on this year’s $5.45MM salary.

It’s a blockbuster that’ll have reverberations around the game for years. San Diego is anticipating Soto will go down as one of the most impactful trade pickups in MLB history, and he and Bell will immediately feature in the middle of a lineup the club hopes is set to embark on a long-term playoff run. For the Nationals, it’s an emphatic closing of the book on the franchise’s previous stretch of success — one that brings in an influx of new faces Washington hopes can eventually form the core of another contender in the NL East years down the line.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Padres and Nationals were moving close on a Soto deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the sides had agreed on a deal sending Bell and Soto to San Diego, as well as the inclusion of each of Abrams, Hassell, Wood and Susana. Jim Bowden of the Athletic reported Gore’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first to report Voit was being dealt.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Eric Hosmer Rejects Trade To Nationals; Padres Still Have Deal For Juan Soto

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Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer has rejected a trade to the Nationals, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Both reporters have made clear that the Padres’ blockbuster deal to acquire Juan Soto from the Nats remains in place.

Hosmer’s eight-year contract with the Padres, signed in February 2018, includes limited no-trade protection of which the Nationals are a part.  It appears the Nationals and Padres agreed to versions of the Soto trade with and without Hosmer, word of the larger Soto trade leaked to the baseball media, and then the Padres took it to Hosmer to decide.  As is his contractual right, Hosmer chose not to move from the Padres, the team he chose as a free agent, to the last-place Nationals.

2022 marks Hosmer’s fifth year as a Padre, a tenure that has mostly disappointed outside of the shortened 2020 season.  Hosmer has a 104 wRC+ in 934 plate appearances since the beginning of the 2021 campaign, so he’s still modestly above-average with the bat.  He’s owed about $7MM for the remainder of this season, plus $39MM for 2023-25.  He can opt out after this season, but that’s an unlikely scenario.

More importantly, upon the completion of the 2022 season, Hosmer will become a 10-and-5 player with the right to reject a trade to any team, not just the ten currently on his list.  With first baseman Josh Bell apparently still headed to the Padres in the Soto deal and about four hours remaining until the no-trade deadline, Padres GM A.J. Preller is surely motivated to make the best deal he can for Hosmer, whether to one of the 19 teams not covered in his no-trade clause, or at least with a team to which Hosmer is willing to go.  The Padres are set to host the Rockies at 3:10pm central time today, the only game starting prior to the 5pm deadline.

With Hosmer’s contract generally considered to be underwater, the Padres would likely have to include a good prospect (of which they’ve surrendered many in the last few days) to find a taker.  Even with a Hosmer trade, getting under the $230MM competitive balance tax is likely impossible for the Padres given the additions of Soto, Bell, and Josh Hader.  Last year, only the Dodgers and Padres paid the competitive balance tax, then set at $210MM.  That marked the first time the Padres paid the tax since it was instituted.

Juan Soto Talks Between Padres, Nationals Reportedly Gaining Momentum

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10:33am: There’s growing momentum in talks between the Padres and Nationals, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jim Bowden of the Athletic. No deal has yet been finalized, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears similarly that there’s “optimism” the Padres can pull off a deal.

7:41am: There is a “growing sense” that the Padres are the likeliest landing spot for not only Soto but also Josh Bell, tweets Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. There’s some momentum in those talks, he adds. Similarly, the Post’s Jesse Dougherty tweets that the Nationals are beginning to narrow the field.

San Diego, of course, already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base, but they’ve been trying for more than a year to unload the remainder of that contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Nats truly want to maximize the return on Soto (and perhaps Bell), they could be the ones to absorb the remaining three years and $39MM on Hosmer’s contract themselves. The trio of Hosmer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg would be a lot of underwater contracts for one team, of course, but the Nats have little else on the payroll in the immediate future.

7:12am: Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is now under 12 hours away, and the Juan Soto trade possibility that has captivated the entire sport and its fanbase remains unresolved. As of yesterday, the Soto auction was generally believed to be a three-team bidding war, with the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers all reported to be heavily involved. That doesn’t preclude another team (or teams) from jumping in to make a late push, of course; it’d frankly rate as something of a surprise if that didn’t happen, in fact. Teams will miss out on other targets, priorities will pivot, and stances on “off limits” prospects will soften.

Up until this point, a sticking point for the Cardinals has been their unwillingness to include young outfielder Dylan Carlson and their very best prospects, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. The 23-year-old Carlson is known be of interest to the Nats as an immediate outfield plug-in, and as a former first-round pick and top-10 overall prospect (per Baseball America), that’s not surprising — even if he’s been more of a solid regular than a star to this point in his young career. The switch-hitting Carlson is batting .260/.334/.426 dating back to last season, and he’s cut down his strikeout rate considerably this season.

Carlson can be controlled another four years beyond the current season and is capable of handling all three outfield spots. There’s perhaps a sense that given his youth and pedigree, he has another gear that he’s not yet tapped into. Further clouding the Cardinals possibility, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that Washington may not be as high on lefty Matthew Liberatore as others in the industry; The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote something similar a couple weeks back.

Turning to the Padres, the health of one of their own top young arms, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, is a potential complication. Gore has been shut down with with an elbow strain. He’s expected to avoid surgery, but the specter of an arm injury for a potential key pitcher in the deal has surely altered the Nats’ valuation. The Padres, meanwhile, are now over the luxury-tax threshold after their stunning addition of Josh Hader yesterday. They’ve reportedly been loath to cross that line for a second consecutive season. However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that if it means acquiring both Hader and Soto, the Padres “won’t mind blowing completely past” the tax line.

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have become increasingly optimistic about their chances over the past couple days, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers’ perennially deep farm system is rife with top prospects — they have seven of Baseball America’s top 100 farmhands at the moment — and they also possess controllable young big leaguers of potential interest. Both Harris and Heyman suggest infielder Gavin Lux (four more years of team control) and righty Dustin May (nearing return from Tommy John surgery, with three more years of control) as potential targets for Washington.

As of yesterday morning, the Yankees were reported to be a “long shot,” the Rangers weren’t said to be particularly aggressive, and Mariners president Jerry Dipoto had gone on record to suggest his team is unlikely to land Soto. Adding to that list of teams that inquired but seems unlikely to be a serious player, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians looked into Soto but talks never gained traction. Washington was interested in top Cleveland pitching prospect Daniel Espino, but health was again a factor in talks, as he’s been out since April due to a knee injury.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

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Juan Soto’s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.

The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.

The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.

The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.

Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.

Latest On Frankie Montas

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TODAY: The Yankees, Cardinals, and Blue Jays seem to be the top suitors for Montas, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the right-hander’s “market is focused on” these three teams.

JULY 30: With Luis Castillo now on his way to Seattle following last night’s trade to the Mariners, Frankie Montas stands out as perhaps the best and likeliest arm left to be traded before Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline. The majority of teams that held interest in Castillo are involved, to varying extents, in the Montas market, so it’s possible that last night’s deal begins to accelerate the pace of the pitching market overall.

The Yankees, for instance, were known to be Castillo suitors but have now made Montas their top target according to both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The Cardinals, who never seemed likely to be able to land Castillo from a fellow NL Central club, are continuing their pursuit of Montas, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Their pursuit, however, is complicated a bit by simultaneous interest in Nationals superstar Juan Soto; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes in his latest column that some of the Cardinals prospects the A’s are targeting in return for Montas are also coveted by the Nationals.

Several other clubs were linked to both Montas and Castillo in the past week, including the Twins, Padres and Blue Jays. There are also surely other clubs on the periphery of the market whose presence isn’t publicly known. Both Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Rosenthal have indicated, for instance, that the Rangers had engaged with the Reds in talks regarding Castillo. Whether the A’s would seriously entertain sending Montas to a division rival isn’t clear, but it’s telling that Texas is in the market for arms that can be controlled into 2023.

The Athletics’ asking price on Montas was reportedly quite high even before last night’s trade of Castillo potentially upped Oakland’s leverage in talks. In profiling the Cardinals’ current rotation needs, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote (prior to the Castillo deal) that Oakland is believed to be seeking a pair of top prospects and “potentially a currently rostered player with substantial team control remaining.” It’s a steep ask, to be sure, though not an unrealistic one given Montas’ trade value.

Juan Soto Rumors: Saturday

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Trade winds are swirling around Juan Soto, as it still isn’t clear if the Nationals will deal the superstar outfielder prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline.  The market continues to change on an hourly basis based on other deals, and certainly based on countless private discussions happening between front office executives around baseball, and yet Soto (MLBTR’s top trade candidate of deadline season) looms over everything.  Certainly, some clubs will want to explore all possibility of acquiring Soto, yet waiting too long could leave that team empty-handed for other trade options if Soto goes elsewhere.

The Padres are widely seen as one of the top contenders to land Soto, and are apparently open to surrendering the type of huge prospect package it will take to get Washington’s attention.  As per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Padres are “willing to discuss” such names as C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Adrian Morejon with the Nationals.  All three are or have been staples of top-100 prospect lists for the last few years, though Morejon has “graduated” from most prospect lists due to his MLB experience, and MLB Pipeline also removed Abrams from their list due to his 43 big league games played earlier this season.

Since the Nationals are known to be targeting younger, controllable players either already in the majors or on the cusp of their big league debuts, the Padres’ trio would seem to check those boxes.  That said, it is quite likely that the Nats would want even more from the top tier of San Diego’s farm system (or from the active roster) in order to part with Soto, and the Padres could possibly have to up their offer in order to outbid other suitors.

For instance, the Cardinals also have a stockpile of young talent, and have also been mentioned as one of the favorites to land Soto.  Dylan Carlson is a name on Washington’s radar, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Nats “are fond of” the outfielder.

Carlson is only 23 and has already made a mark in the Show, delivering above-average production at the plate and strong defense (as both a center fielder and right fielder).  The Nationals could be eyeing Carlson as their next outfield cornerstone, as the team would already be fairly certain that he could contribute right away, whereas players like Abrams, Hassell, or Morejon are still unproven at the MLB level.

On paper, the Cardinals would seemingly have the depth to move Carlson as part of a Soto deal, yet that would leave the Cards without a reliable center fielder.  Harrison Bader is still on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and a setback will extend his stint for at least another few weeks, manager Oliver Marmol told Goold and other reporters.  Bader won’t even be out of a protective right boot for another week or two, so while Carlson has capably filled in up the middle, St. Louis could also have to pivot to landing a center fielder in another deal if Carlson was moved.  A makeshift combo of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman in center, for instance, wouldn’t be an ideal option for a would-be contender.

As mentioned, other trades can drastically change the situation for multiple teams, and it appears as though two other potential Soto suitors are no longer involved.  The Rays would’ve been something of an eyebrow-raising team to land Soto, yet the Nationals’ demands were “beyond their tolerance,” Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes.  As such, the Rays eschewed the blockbuster route and instead landed David Peralta from the Diamondbacks earlier today.  Yesterday’s acquisition of Luis Castillo would also seemingly take the Mariners out of the running for Soto, as Seattle dealt away a sizeable chunk of its prospect capital to obtain Castillo from the Reds.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

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With four days to go until Tuesday evening’s trade deadline, the floodgates of activity have yet to really open. There’s nevertheless been plenty of chatter about the game’s top trade candidate, Juan Soto. The Nationals superstar will continue to be the talk of the summer market until the club either pulls the trigger on a deal or the deadline passes.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams generally viewed as those best positioned to pull off the blockbuster. That wasn’t a comprehensive list of clubs with interest, although Jim Bowden of the Athletic tweets this evening that only four clubs remain in the market. Bowden adds that the Padres and Cardinals are among that group of four, but the identities of the other two teams remain unknown. To be clear, it’s not a certainty that no one besides St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas is still in the mix.

Previous reports have tied the Mariners, Giants, Mets and Yankees to Soto, but the general belief is the Nats aren’t interested in dealing him within the NL East. Meanwhile, Heyman wrote last night the Nats “seem focused” on teams other than the Yankees. That’s not to say the Yankees are out, as Heyman unsurprisingly notes they’re still interested in Soto after acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals.

The Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers are obvious entrants into the Soto bidding. They’re each 2022 contenders with a robust collection of young major league and/or farm talent, and all three have proven bold enough to trade for star players in recent years. The Rangers are perhaps a more surprising entrant into the market since they’re not in the playoff mix this year, but Texas has long maintained they expect to compete in earnest by next season. With Soto controllable for an additional two seasons, the Rangers could enter the fray with an eye towards adding another star to the 2023-24 rosters after big free agent pickups of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas has indeed been in contact with the Washington front office and continues to monitor the market. Whether they’ll be willing to meet the Nationals’ understandably astronomical asking price — and top the offers of clubs that are eyeing Soto as a target to improve their 2022 odds as well — remains to be seen. Grant suggests the Rangers may prefer to focus their resources, both financial and in terms of prospect capital, on their efforts to add talent to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last night in an appearance on Fox Sports that the general expectation is that Texas will be outbid by a more motivated club (Twitter link).

There’ll be more clarity on the Soto negotiations over the next few days. One thing that does not appear to be under consideration: the sides reopening extension talks before the trade deadline. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post hears the Nats aren’t planning to make another extension offer (Twitter link). General manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Washington made a 15-year, $440MM proposal that Soto rejected a few weeks ago. That apparently marked the final extent to which the Nationals were willing to go, at least this summer. That’s not to say the Nats have to force a trade imminently, since his remaining arbitration eligibility would allow them to revisit extension and/or trade talks next offseason if he’s not dealt before Tuesday.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Juan Soto

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Juan Soto has been the talk of deadline season since reports emerged that the Nationals were entertaining dealing him in the wake of a rejected extension offer. The young superstar will continue to dominate headlines up until he’s either traded or next Tuesday’s deadline passes, with plenty of teams relishing the chance to acquire a 23-year-old who is already perhaps the game’s best hitter.

There’s been plenty of speculation about which teams could be involved, and Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote yesterday that some rival executives believe the Cardinals and Padres are the clubs with the best chance of prying Soto out of Washington. That’s more informed speculation than an indication anything is close between the Nats and either club. Both the Padres and Cardinals have win-now mentalities and a group of high-upside controllable players both at and below the major league level. That’s also true of clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mariners, among others, and Soto’s two and a half years of remaining arbitration eligibility means the Nats don’t have to take the best offer on the table over the next few days.

Both Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat write that the Cardinals have considered making a push for Soto. Jones reports that talks between the St. Louis and Washington front offices have already been underway, with rookie second baseman Nolan Gorman on the table.

According to Jones, the St. Louis front office has proposed building a return package around Gorman in hopes of keeping at least one of minor league infielders Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn. Walker is perhaps the organization’s top young player, checking in 7th overall on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects update. Winn, meanwhile, places 65th on that list. They’re two of the top three St. Louis prospects, with left-hander Matthew Liberatore — who has made his first seven MLB appearances this year — checking in 35th. (Triple-A outfielder Alec Burleson and Double-A pitcher Gordon Graceffo also placed towards the back of the top 100).

Gorman, of course, would still be a top prospect himself if he hadn’t exhausted his eligibility this season. The 22-year-old entered the year as a consensus top minor league talent in his own right. Keith Law of the Athletic placed him slightly ahead of Walker as St. Louis’ top prospect entering the season. Baseball America and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN each gave the edge to Walker but slotted Gorman second in the system and among the sport’s top 50 farmhands. Gorman proceeded to tear the cover off the ball with Triple-A Memphis, blasting 15 home runs in 34 games before getting his first big league call in May.

Through 54 major league games entering play Wednesday, the left-handed hitting Gorman has a .223/.299/.411 showing. The high-power, low-OBP combination is about what was anticipated. Gorman’s huge power numbers in Memphis came with a lofty 34% strikeout rate, and he’s gone down on strikes 32.5% of the time thus far as a big leaguer.

One shouldn’t expect Gorman to be a finished product at this point. He just turned 22 years old a few months ago. “Merely” hitting at a slightly above-average level in the majors at that age is quite promising. Gorman has predictably not rated highly as a defender at second base, but the 6’1″ infielder was forced to the keystone by the presence of Nolan Arenado. Gorman could probably fare better with an opportunity at his natural position at the hot corner, although his power upside at the dish will always be his calling card.

Promising as Gorman has been, it’s also understandable if the Cardinals would prefer to center a possible Soto return around him rather than Walker. The latter, a first-round pick in 2020, has played his way to Double-A Springfield despite having just turned 20 years old. Walker is excelling at that advanced level, hitting .304/.393/.486 with eight home runs, a quality 11.5% walk rate and a manageable 22.3% strikeout percentage. Those excellent numbers only reinforce scouting evaluations that suggest Walker could be a middle-of-the-order bat in the not too distant future. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs credited Walker with possible top-of-the-scale power (an 80 on the 20-80 scale) this month, writing that he’s posted eye-popping exit velocities in the minors despite his youth. Like Gorman, Walker has come up as a third baseman.

Winn, also 20, went in the second round of that 2020 draft. A two-way player in high school, he’s converted to shortstop as a professional. He retains the elite arm strength he showed on the mound, and Longenhagen praised his combination of bat speed, athleticism and contact skills. He’s split the season between High-A Peoria and Springfield, hitting .298/.363/.484 across 357 plate appearances.

Whether a Gorman-centered return could get the ball rolling in talks for the Nationals isn’t clear. Washington holds plenty of leverage in Soto talks, and the early reported asking price has been for a return of five or more controllable big leaguers and/or prospects. Even if the Nationals had interest in Gorman as a headliner, St. Louis would surely have to additionally include multiple young players (one or more likely from the aforementioned group of top 100 talents in the system) to convince Washington general manager Mike Rizzo to pull the trigger.

Jones writes that, at some point in negotiations with the Cardinals, the Nats sought to include left-hander Patrick Corbin in talks as a means of offsetting salary. Corbin is under contract for roughly $60MM over the 2023-24 seasons, an unappealing sum for a pitcher with a 6.02 ERA through 20 starts on the year. Rizzo flatly rejected the idea the Nationals have sought or would seek to include Corbin’s contract in a Soto deal during a chat on 106.7 FM radio in Washington this morning.

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” Rizzo told “The Sports Junkies.” “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.“

Rizzo: Nationals Won’t “Dilute” Trade Returns By Attaching Bad Contracts

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As soon as it reported that the Nationals were willing to listen to offers on star outfielder Juan Soto, there was speculation about the possibility of utilizing Soto’s unprecedented trade value to dump some or all of the $59MM owed to Patrick Corbin in 2023-24. (Stephen Strasburg’s name was also a popular source of speculation, but he has full no-trade protection, making that scenario even less likely.) In his weekly radio appearance on 106.7 FM’s “The Sports Junkies,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo plainly stated that he will not water down his return for any player, Soto or otherwise, by insisting that a trade partner take on an undesirable contract (link to full audio of the 21-minute interview).

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” said Rizzo. “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.”

Fans hoping to see their favorite team absorb the Corbin contract in order to reduce the prospect cost of acquiring Soto can’t be thrilled by that declaration, but it’s the sensible course of action for Rizzo and his staff to take if they indeed follow through on a Soto trade — be it this summer or in the offseason. Rizzo did candidly acknowledge that the Nationals are discussing trades involving Soto and appear to have legitimate interest from several other clubs. Whether a team will meet a historic asking price (reportedly as many as six prospects and/or young big leaguers), of course, remains to be seen. Unsurprisingly, Rizzo did not offer any specifics pertaining to ongoing Soto discussions.

“When we offered Juan this contract, with his agent’s knowledge, we told him when the deal was turned down, ’We’re going to have to explore all our options,'” Rizzo continued. “That’s all we’ve ever said. I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t explore all the options now presented to us. We’ve got pretty good options. We’ve got a talented Juan Soto for two and a half more seasons. That’s Option A — it’s a good one. But we also have to think about options B and C. My job is to make this organization a consummate winner again, like we did from 2012 to 2019. I have to figure out ways, as the caretaker of this franchise, to make us a championship organization for a long time to come.”

Taking a step further back, Rizzo lamented that his team’s reported 15-year, $440MM extension offer to Soto became public. The GM stated that it “unequivocally” was not leaked by him or other members of the Nationals front office.

“[The leak] didn’t help us in anything we were trying to do,” said Rizzo. “It didn’t help us keep a good relationship with Juan, and it didn’t help us with any kind of leverage at the trade deadline. So it really hurt us that the information got out.”

Speaking further on the matter, Rizzo acknowledged that while reports of prior extension offers to Soto had contained inaccurate terms, the reported 15-year, $440MM terms of his team’s latest proposal were indeed accurate. He added that he doesn’t harbor any ill feelings toward Soto for the choice to turn down what would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history, but also pushed back on suggestions that Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM annual value should have any bearing on the AAV in a potential Soto deal. As Rizzo points out, a short-term deal for a 37-year-old pitcher is an entirely different beast than a 15-year offer to a 23-year-old who still has a pair of trips through the arbitration process remaining.

There was, of course, no firm declaration that Soto would be traded. Rizzo emphasized that the Nats are “going to have to get the deal that we want … that gets us the opportunity to become a championship organization faster than not trading him.” On the Lerner family’s looming sale of the Nationals franchise, Rizzo stated that the potential ownership change “has not factored one bit into the decision-making process.”

Fans of the Nats and virtually any other team will want to check out the whole interview, as Rizzo’s candor is both fascinating and uncommon among current baseball operations leaders throughout the league. Beyond the Soto drama, Rizzo also discusses the team’s recent draft, his respect for and relationship with the Boras Corporation, the broader state of the team’s ongoing “reboot,” and the confidence he has in his plan to engineer a swift turnaround for the organization.

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