Luke Voit

Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2022 at 11:51pm CDT

The Yankees have settled on a first baseman, reportedly agreeing to terms with Anthony Rizzo on a two-year, $32MM guarantee. The deal pays the Sports One Athlete Management client $16MM salaries annually and gives him the opportunity to opt out after the 2022 campaign. The contract is pending a physical.

Rizzo will be returning to the Bronx, where he finished the 2021 season. New York acquired him from the Cubs in advance of the trade deadline, and he hit .249/.340/.428 in 200 plate appearances in pinstripes down the stretch. That was more or less in line with the .248/.346/.446 mark he’d put up in 376 trips to the plate with Chicago over the season’s first couple months.

It was the second straight season of reasonable but unexciting production for Rizzo. He’d posted a .222/.342/.414 line during the shortened 2020 campaign. Going back two seasons, he owns a .240/.343/.432 mark over 819 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, that production checks in nine percentage points above the league average hitter’s. It’s actually a bit below the standard (.254/.335/.455, 113 wRC+) set by first basemen around the league.

It’s been a rather sharp downturn for Rizzo as he’s entered his 30’s. He broke out with the Cubs in 2014, his age-24 campaign. Over the next six seasons, he never posted a wRC+ below 126. Overall, Rizzo hit .284/.388/.513 between 2014-19, with his 141 wRC+ in that stretch tying for twelfth among 375 qualified hitters.

Rizzo was a lineup anchor for the Cubs as they emerged from their rebuild, and he was also highly-regarded for his leadership and presence in the clubhouse. That combination made him perhaps the face of the Cubs’ most successful run in over a century. He appeared in three consecutive All-Star games from 2014-16, finishing in the top ten in NL MVP voting each season. Rizzo played a key role on Chicago’s curse-breaking World Series winner in 2016, and he remained highly productive for three years beyond that even as the team never recaptured that level of postseason success.

The Yankees would be thrilled with their investment if he were to recapture anything near that form next season. Yet there’s clearly some trepidation around the league regarding Rizzo’s back-to-back relative down years. Just 12 months ago, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported that the Cubs had put a five-year, $70MM extension offer on the table. Rizzo declined Chicago’s overture, preferring to bet on himself after his middle-of-the-road 2020 season. After continuing to produce at a similar level over a full schedule in 2021, though, he essentially finds himself accepting a pillow contract and betting on a bounceback once again.

To be sure, Rizzo still does a lot of things well. He continues to boast an enviable combination of contact and raw power. Rizzo’s 81.5% contact rate and 15.1% strikeout percentage last season were both well better than average; so too were his 90.1 MPH average exit velocity and 41.1% hard contact rate. That neither Rizzo’s bat-to-ball skills nor his bat speed have evaporated lend hope he may again find some of his old form.

It’s also possible that forthcoming rules changes could aid Rizzo as he ages (albeit not during the upcoming season). The left-handed hitter has become more pull-oriented over the past two seasons than he’d been throughout his career. Not coincidentally, he has faced a higher rate of defensive shifts that have contributed to lackluster results on balls in play. Rizzo’s .246 batting average on balls in play since the start of 2020 ranks 108th out of 114 qualified hitters. That may continue to be an issue this year, but it’s expected MLB will implement restrictions on defensive shifting beginning with the 2023 campaign.

However one feels about Rizzo’s long-term projection at the plate, there’s not as much question about the value he brings on the other side of the ball. He’s a four-time Gold Glove Award winner who was unanimously well-regarded by public defensive metrics up through 2020. Defensive Runs Saved felt he dropped off in that regard last year, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average remained bullish on his work. Rizzo seems a fairly definitive upgrade with the glove over incumbent first baseman Luke Voit, who has always been a bat-first player — even relative to the lower defensive standards of the position.

With Rizzo back in the fold, it stands to reason Voit’s name will come up in trade talks over the coming weeks. They could coexist as a first base/designated hitter pairing on many rosters, but the Yankees don’t have many DH at-bats to spare. They’ve leaned heavily on the position to keep Giancarlo Stanton from having to shoulder too significant a workload in the outfield. Even if Stanton were capable of assuming more defensive responsibilities than he has in the recent past, New York already has a projected starting outfield of Joey Gallo, Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge.

More broadly, it has become apparent in recent months the Yankees weren’t fully committed to Voit, the 2020 MLB home run leader. They traded for Rizzo at the deadline, then reportedly came close to pulling the trigger on a subsequent deal that would’ve shipped Voit out over the summer. That never came to fruition, but the Yankees were again tied to bigger names at first base this offseason. New York was in contact with the A’s about Matt Olson before Oakland traded him to the Braves. More recently, they were considered among the top handful of suitors for Olson’s predecessor in Atlanta.

With Rizzo returning to the Bronx, it no longer seems the Yankees will be in that Freddie Freeman mix. The Braves have already moved on to Olson, leaving Freeman’s future home one of the most fascinating remaining storylines of the offseason. Recent reports have generally cast the Dodgers as the leading contender for the 2020 NL MVP, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Padres reported to be on the outskirts of his market.

Wherever he ends up, Freeman is sure to command a deal much loftier than the one the Yankees are guaranteeing Rizzo. New York has been wary of making a long-term commitment to free agents this winter, with the desire to work out an extension with Judge seemingly looming over the offseason calculus. Yet the recent trade for Josh Donaldson and today’s agreement with Rizzo solidify that the Yankees will exceed the competitive balance tax threshold in 2022 after dipping below the marker last season.

After today’s agreement, New York has around $244MM in real payroll and $258MM in CBT obligations on the books this year, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (Luxury tax calculations are determined by summing contracts’ average annual values and player benefits as opposed to looking strictly at actual year-over-year salaries). They’ll pay a 20% fee on every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, as well as a 32% tax on every dollar between $250MM and $270MM. They’d face even higher penalties for exceeding $270MM and $290MM, and it’s not clear how far owner Hal Steinbrenner and the front office are willing to push things this season.

New York will see the salaries of both Aroldis Chapman ($16MM) and Zack Britton ($14MM) come off the books after this year. Judge and Gallo, both of whom have lofty projected arbitration tallies in 2022, will be hitting free agency. There should be decent long-term maneuverability for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff. How much more they’ll do in the short term remains to be seen, but a Voit trade at least looks like a very plausible next step as they try to round out the 2022 roster.

Jordan Brown first reported the Yankees and Rizzo were in agreement on a two-year, $32MM guarantee with an opt-out after 2022. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported he’ll be paid flat salaries of $16MM in each year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Poll: Who Will Play First Base In The Bronx?

By Steve Adams | February 14, 2022 at 9:59am CDT

Following the 2020 season, first base didn’t look like it’d be an area of concern for the Yankees for the next few years. Luke Voit led the Majors with 22 home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, turning in a stout .277/.338/.610 batting line that was 53 percent better than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. A series of injuries derailed much of Voit’s 2021 season, however, prompting the Yanks to trade for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline.

Fast forward several months, and Rizzo is a free agent, Voit is a possible trade candidate, and the Yankees have been linked to big-fish names like Oakland’s Matt Olson and even free agent Freddie Freeman, who has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal in Atlanta. Everyone’s wondering who’ll play shortstop at Yankee Stadium in 2022, but first base is a question mark in its own right, so let’s take a quick look at each of the most plausible possibilities.

Luke Voit: There’s certainly an argument for sticking with the status quo and giving Voit another go-around. Last year was blown up by a torn meniscus that required surgery, an oblique strain that wiped out another month, and then continued knee troubles in the season’s second half. Voit, who turned 31 just yesterday, managed just eight more plate appearances in 2021 than he did in the 60-game 2020 sprint.

When he was healthy, Voit was a solid hitter, slashing .239/.328/.437 (111 wRC+) with 11 long balls, seven doubles and a triple in 241 trips to the dish. However, he also saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-worst 30.7% as he struggled through those injuries, and that batting line is a far cry from his aforementioned dominance in 2020.

In the three seasons leading up to 2021, Voit batted a combined .278/.371/.541 with 58 home runs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 905 plate appearances. He grades out as a poor defender at first base, but it’s easier to overlook the glovework if he’s hitting like he did from 2018-20. If he’s hitting like he did in 2021, that defense becomes harder to hide. Voit is controlled three more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.4MM in 2022. He’s affordable and has plenty of upside with the bat — but there are red flags to consider as well. For his part, Voit told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he loves playing in New York and hopes to remain. He also acknowledged that a trade is possible.

DJ LeMahieu: The 33-year-old thrived with the 2019-20 Yankees, playing all over the infield and turning in a combined .336/.386/.536 showing with a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate. However, with a .268/.349/.362 batting line in 2021 (100 wRC+), LeMahieu had his own downturn at the plate this past season.

If LeMahieu were still hitting at his 2019-20 levels, that’d be more than enough offense even if he moved to first base on a full-time basis. If he’s “only” an average or slightly above-average hitter moving forward, then his versatility and ability to play other positions becomes more important.

The Yankees could still give LeMahieu the bulk of the work at first base in 2022, though it doesn’t seem like it’d be a top choice. It’s hard to see them doing so with Voit still on the roster, meaning they’d likely need to move Voit and spend the bulk of whatever resources they have remaining on other needs (shortstop, pitching, etc.).

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo had a big start in New York, but by the time the season had run its course, his overall offensive production as a Yankee looked pretty similar to Voit’s 2021 output: .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+). Rizzo was an offensive force with the Cubs from 2014-19, batting a collective .284/.388/.513 in that time and topping 30 home runs in four different seasons. He’s since settled in as more of a 20 to 25-homer threat who makes good contact (15.1% strikeout rate) and draws some walks but is no longer an MVP-caliber hitter.

Two points in Rizzo’s favor over Voit: he’d give the Yankees a left-handed bat to help further balance a lineup that skews heavily toward right-handed hitters, and he’s also generally considered to be a strong defender. Defensive metrics were down on Rizzo in 2021, but he still graded out better than Voit typically has. That’s also the only time in his career he’s ever drawn negative marks for his glovework at first base.

Rizzo would be a costlier option, even though his stock has dropped from the point at which the Cubs were offering him extensions to keep him beyond 2021. MLBTR predicted a three-year deal at a rate of $15MM per season heading into the offseason, and even that was in part due to some of the narrative building up Rizzo as a difference-making clubhouse presence and leader. Post-lockout, an even shorter deal can’t be completely ruled out. He’ll still cost quite a bit more than Voit, but he won’t break the bank relative to, say…

Freddie Freeman: Braves fans and pundits alike are still a bit surprised things have gotten to this point with Freeman, the homegrown Braves icon whom most onlookers considered a slam dunk to spend his entire career in Atlanta. It’s still wholly plausible that after a protracted set of contract negotiations, Freeman returns to anchor the lineup at Truist Park, settling in as a lifelong Brave. At the same time, there have been reports that the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Blue Jays could at least try to pry Freeman from Atlanta by offering the lengthier deal and/or weightier annual salary he’s thought to seek.

Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, shook off some early-season doldrums in 2021 and finished out the year with a pretty typical (for him) .300/.393/.503 slash through 695 plate appearances. These endpoints are completely arbitrary, so take them with a grain of salt, but on May 7, Freeman finished the day with a .195/.326/.407 slash. From that point forth he hit .324/.409/.526.

Freeman will turn 33 in September, so the always-prominent concerns about paying for a player’s decline phase exist here as well. It might take six years and an annual salary in the $30MM range to sign him (or at least a salary well north of $30MM on a five-year term). The Yankees obviously have the resources to do that — particularly if they take an affordable approach at shortstop, as has been rumored — but there’s plenty of long-term risk.

Matt Olson: Perhaps the most-speculated trade match of the entire offseason, Olson-to-the-Bronx makes a good deal of sense. He’s an elite fielding left-handed bat who broke out as one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive players in 2021. Always a 30-homer threat — he swatted 29 homers in 2018 and 36 in 2019 — Olson slashed his strikeout rate from 26.3% all the way to 16.8% this past season. He did so while maintaining a walk rate north of 13%, and the resulting .271/.371/.540 slash and 39 home runs were career-best marks.

The A’s control Olson through 2023, but he’s projected to earn $12MM in arbitration (via Swartz) at a time when the A’s are reportedly aiming to reduce payroll. He’d give the Yankees a clear upgrade for at least two years, coming with an affordable (for them) salary in both seasons. It’s always possible that the Yankees could look into a long-term deal in the aftermath of a trade, too.

That said, Olson’s going to come with one of the heftiest asking prices of any player on the trade market. Yankees fans are surely loath to even consider the possibility of including a headliner such as top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, but any trade scenario involving Olson is probably going to come at a prospect cost that upsets many fans. Olson will (or at least certainly should) command multiple players from the top echelon of any team’s farm system.

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Those are just a few possibilities for the Yankees, but they seem to be the most plausible paths for GM Brian Cashman and his staff to tread. After Freeman and Rizzo, the free-agent market doesn’t offer a clear everyday option at first base who’d be an upgrade over Voit and LeMahieu. There are other speculative trade candidates to consider (e.g. Dominic Smith, Josh Bell), but none who promise the impact and clear upgrade that Olson would bring to the fold.

Let’s open this up for readers to discuss and to take their best guess (link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users) …

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

By Tim Dierkes | February 8, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts. Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet. Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point. Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place. Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market. We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets. The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars. One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected. For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three. Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll. Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt. Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration. He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March. Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+. Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards. It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson. He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected. The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal. Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game. The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2. Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018. It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends. Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+. In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019. Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19. He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021. Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors. The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing. A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining. We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022. The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3. Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation. We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration. Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA. While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01. He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September. Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency. He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4. Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate. It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out. Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday. Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time. In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best. Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September. He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas? He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5. Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post. The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022. He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate. Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6. After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72. Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either. So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable. He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6. Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings. The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball. The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout. They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again. That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary. Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable. I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen. The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7. Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons. He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards. With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario. Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017. He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger. Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field. Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over. The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8. Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list. Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency. They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH. A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano. But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021. It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested? Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game. After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties. He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21. Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July. He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old. He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining. I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH. The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9. J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022. He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020. This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October. By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart. While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22. As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit. Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21. A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well. It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average. It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position. On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs. While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis. I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10. Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here. As such, he’s the least likely to be traded. In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20. Escobar is also capable of playing second base. McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well. It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays. Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected. A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20. Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period. A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well. McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021. McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month. He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat. 30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11. Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job. As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well. Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career. WAR is always tricky with catchers. FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross. The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency. Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras. At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload. The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending. A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends. A midseason trade is a possibility as well. The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12. Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade. He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19. His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain. Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19. He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration. He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return. Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13. Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi. After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th. Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month. In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches. In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury. Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart. 32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year. He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings. You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season. The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14. Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production. This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee. He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time. We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year. He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry! We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Brewers Have Had Previous Interest In Luke Voit

By Darragh McDonald | December 12, 2021 at 1:18pm CDT

Joel Sherman of the New York Post took a look at the Yankees’ offseason and speculated about various paths they could take once the lockout is completed. One scenario that he contemplates would involve the club acquiring Lorenzo Cain from the Brewers to act as insurance for oft-injured center fielder Aaron Hicks. Sherman then parenthetically remarks that “Milwaukee has had interest in Voit previously,” referring, of course, to first baseman Luke Voit.

It isn’t specified exactly when this interest occurred, but Voit would make for an interesting fit on the Brewers roster currently. After acquiring Rowdy Tellez from the Blue Jays in July, the hulking lefty got most of the playing time at first base for the remainder of the season. With Voit being right-handed, they could make for an interesting platoon pair, but neither player has pronounced splits over their respective careers. Voit has hit .264/.344/.516 against lefties, for a wRC+ of 130. Against righties, he’s hit .268/.362/.508, wRC+ of 134. In 2021, he also had an even wRC+ of 111 against both lefties and righties. Tellez has hit lefties at a rate of .264/.314/.441, wRC+ of 98 for his career. Versus righties, his line is .241/.305/.470, wRC+ of 101.

It’s possible that the Brewers were interested in Voit before acquiring Tellez and that the presence of Rowdy lessens their desire to bring in Voit. However, Voit would be an upgrade over Tellez, as long as he’s healthy. Also, with the designated hitter expected to come to the National League next year, it would be easy enough for the Brewers to have both players in the lineup on a regular basis, especially with the ongoing strikeout issues of Keston Hiura and recent non-tender of Daniel Vogelbach.

The Brewers have been looking to add some offensive pop this offseason to complement their excellent pitching staff. They’ve already added Hunter Renfroe, but also lost Avisail Garcia and Eduardo Escobar. Voit is certainly capable of adding some slug to any lineup, as he led the majors in homers during the shortened 2020 season. However, injuries limited him to just 68 games in 2021. The Yankees acquired Anthony Rizzo for the stretch run and have since been connected in rumors to other first basemen, such as Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, perhaps indicating that they would be open to moving on from Voit. He comes with three years of club control and is projected to earn a salary around $5.4MM next year. It will be his second of four arbitration seasons, as a Super Two player.

Yankees’ Cashman On Carlos Correa, Anthony Rizzo

By Tim Dierkes | November 10, 2021 at 10:43am CDT

The GM Meetings are taking place in Carlsbad, California, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to reporters yesterday. Cashman said he has “some latitude” on the team’s budget, after talking to owner Hal Steinbrenner. The club was able to stay below the base luxury tax threshold of $210MM this year, effectively resetting as a first-time payor for future penalties – if something resembling the current system remains in place in the next collective bargaining agreement.

Cashman acknowledged to reporters that he’s already had talks with the agents for two free agent shortstops. Those players are Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden. ESPN’s Buster Olney is hearing that the Yankees’ pursuit of a shortstop will remain focused on elite players of this nature. Chandler Rome from the Houston Chronicle has more from Cashman on the Yankees’ interest in Correa. Cashman explained, “(Correa) is just a very talented player, obviously. Puts up numbers with the best of them. He’s obviously had an incredible career thus far. Certainly not afraid. He’s pushed forward, regardless of the circumstances. He’s clearly not afraid because (the sign-stealing fallout) has not affected his play.”

There’s been a sentiment that perhaps Yankees fans would not tolerate or accept Correa. That doesn’t seem to be Cashman’s primary concern, as the fans’ reaction “is not going to enter my calculus right now.”

Correa, who seems unlikely to sign before a potential December lockout, is reported to have received a five-year, $160MM offer from the Astros that seems more for show than anything. As the top player on the free agent market, Correa is in line for $300MM or more.

Cashman has also spoken to the agent for first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who appeared in 50 games for the Yankees after a July trade. The GM noted, “He obviously was really good for us, we feel, both on the offensive side and on the defensive side and on the leadership side, so he brings a lot of good things to the table. I know he liked it here, I know we liked having him, but nothing has gone past that.” Rizzo, 32, put up a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees. In projecting a three-year, $45MM contract, MLBTR took into account intangibles like Rizzo’s reputation around the game.

The Yankees still have an incumbent first baseman in Luke Voit, who was limited to 68 games on the season due to injuries. MLBTR projects Voit to earn $5.4MM next year, and it’s possible the Yankees move on from him. Voit’s troublesome left knee is “resolved,” according to Cashman.

Perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Yankees at first base is a trade for Matt Olson of the Athletics. Olson, 28 in March, posted a 146 wRC+ with 39 home runs this year and is projected to earn $12MM through arbitration. According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, the Yankees have internally discussed trading for Olson.

The Yankees would also like to add some help in center field, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Aaron Hicks, who played in only 32 games this year, is still owed $41MM through 2025. Hicks, whose season ended in May due to wrist surgery, hopes to play winter ball, noted Lindsey Adler of The Athletic back in October. The Yankees filled the void this year with 38-year-old Brett Gardner, who recently declined his $2.3MM player option in favor of a $1.15MM buyout. The free agent market for center fielders also includes Starling Marte, Juan Lagares, Chris Taylor, Kevin Pillar, and eventually Odubel Herrera. The trade market could include Kevin Kiermaier, Ketel Marte, and Byron Buxton.

AL Notes: Athletics Ballpark, Santana, Orioles, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | October 28, 2021 at 1:04pm CDT

The Alameda County board of supervisors voted (by a 4-1 margin) Tuesday to join the Athletics and the city of Oakland in the team’s attempts to construct a new ballpark at the Howard Terminal site in Oakland. The county’s agreement is non-binding, and as Annie Sciacca of The Bay Area News Group explains, many steps remain before construction can or would actually begin on a new A’s stadium, or how financing for the development project would break down between the county, city, and the team. Still, “I think our willingness to at least go further based on the motion gives the county the opportunity to do more due diligence around this,” supervisor Nate Miley said.

Yankees Select Brody Koerner, Transfer Luke Voit To 60-Day IL

By Darragh McDonald | October 3, 2021 at 2:00pm CDT

The Yankees have selected the contract of right-hander Brody Koerner and optioned him to Triple-A, per a team announcement. To make room on the 40-man roster, first baseman Luke Voit was transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL.

For Voit, this officially ends his season and eliminates any chance of him returning to the club at some point during the postseason. Overall, it was a disappointing campaign for the slugger, as he was hampered by injuries, with multiple trips to the IL, primarily due to his knee. He managed to get into 68 games at the MLB level and hit .239/.328/.437. That production was still 11% better than league average as measured by wRC+. However, that’s a big drop-off from the wRC+ of 153 that he put up during the shortened 2020 campaign and the 126 he had over 118 games in 2019.

It was perhaps because of Voit’s continued struggles to stay healthy that the Yankees acquired a replacement first baseman at the deadline in the form of Anthony Rizzo. However, Rizzo is a free agent at the end of this season, meaning that the Yankees could let Voit take over as the regular first baseman again in 2022. Though that will probably depend on how his health progresses over the coming months and through the winter. Voit reached arbitration for the first time last winter as a Super Two player. He and the Yankees agreed to a $4.7MM salary for 2021. He would be in line for a modest raise for 2022.

Koerner was previously selected to the roster in early August and lasted about three weeks before being outrighted back to Triple-A. In that time, he only got into two games, logging three innings with two hits, two walks, one earned run and one strikeout. In Triple-A this year, he’s logged 75 innings with an ERA of 3.48 and 60 strikeouts. He could potentially be an emergency option for the Yankees during the postseason. Players in the organization but not on the 40-man roster before September 1 can still participate in the playoffs via a petition to the Commissioner’s Office, a fairly common maneuver throughout the league.

Yankees Place Luke Voit On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2021 at 4:46pm CDT

The Yankees announced that first baseman Luke Voit is landing back on the 10-day injured list with left knee inflammation. Reliever Albert Abreu is up from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to take his active roster spot.

Voit has been plagued by injuries for much of this season, with the left knee particularly problematic. He began the year on the IL after tearing the meniscus in the area. That initial stint cost him the first five weeks of the year, and he missed three weeks between July and August due to recurring inflammation. (Voit also missed time in May and June because of an oblique strain).

The series of health issues limited Voit to 241 plate appearances in a regular season that has now officially been brought to a close. His .239/.328/.437 line still checks in around 12 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+, but it’s a significant drop-off from Voit’s first few seasons in pinstripes. The slugger entered this season with a .279/.372/.543 mark in 892 plate appearances as a Yankee, including a .277/.338/.610 line with a league-best 22 home runs in last year’s shortened season.

It seems likely the persistent health troubles impacted Voit’s productivity even when he was well enough to take the field. New York acquired Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs at the trade deadline to help cover for Voit’s health question marks, but the front office will need to decide how comfortable they are in Voit’s ability to return to his prior form moving forward. Rizzo is slated to hit free agency this offseason, while Voit will be entering his second of four years of arbitration eligibility. Whether the Yankees are comfortable enough with Voit’s knee to allow Rizzo to sign elsewhere remains to be seen.

In the interim, the Yankees will continue to pencil Rizzo in at first base with Giancarlo Stanton serving as the primary designated hitter. New York enters play tonight one game up on the Red Sox for the top Wild Card spot in the American League, a game and a half clear of the Mariners (the closest team just outside the current playoff picture). The Yankees didn’t provide a timetable for Voit’s return, so it’s possible he makes it back at some point during a potential playoff run. To give him that opportunity, the club will need to lock down a postseason spot and win the Wild Card game without his contributions.

Yankees Activate Luke Voit, Place Anthony Rizzo On COVID-IL

By Darragh McDonald | August 8, 2021 at 11:24am CDT

11:30AM: The Yankees have also recalled Luis Gil as a replacement player and optioned Nick Nelson to Triple-A, per a club announcement.

9:51AM: The Yankees have activated Luke Voit and placed Anthony Rizzo on the COVID-IL. Manager Aaron Boone says Rizzo has tested positive, per Lindsey Adler of The Athletic. He also is exhibiting some symptoms. As a positive test, he will be quarantined for at least 10 days.

The Yankees are now further hampered by an ongoing COVID outbreak that has already seen them place Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery and Gary Sanchez on the IL in recent days. Since being acquired in a deal just before the deadline, Rizzo has had an excellent debut as a Yankee. In nine games, he’s slashed .281/.400/.563, for a wRC+ of 163.

The club will now turn to Voit and hope that he can return to last year’s excellent form. His wRC+ of 152 in 2020 was one of the best in the league. But 2021 has been a struggle so far, with a wRC+ of 98 while dealing with various injuries. The club reportedly nearly traded Voit after acquiring Rizzo, but the deal fell through at the last hour. After a knee injury in July, he had only started a rehab assignment a few days ago. But it seems Rizzo’s positive test has hastened his return.

Despite scrambling to cover for all of these players missing time, the team is on a hot streak and currently just 1 1/2 out of a playoff spot.

Yankees Nearly Traded Luke Voit Before Deadline

By Darragh McDonald | August 5, 2021 at 10:02pm CDT

The Yankees came very close to trading Luke Voit before last week’s trade deadline, Andy Martino of SNY reports. The Yankees discussed three potential deals involving Voit, per the report, one of which fell apart just before the deadline when the trade partner in question backed out of the swap.

With no trade coming together, Voit’s role on the Yankees has rather surprisingly become unclear. Despite the fact that the 30-year-old slugger paced the Majors with 22 home runs last summer and has generally been a well above-average hitter from the moment he arrived on the scene in the Bronx, the 2021 campaign has been something of a nightmare. Voit has endured three IL stints thanks to a torn meniscus, a strained oblique and a bone bruise in his knee, and he’s managed a tepid .241/.328/.370 output in 122 plate appearances when healthy.

Voit’s offense looked to be coming around in the weeks between his two most recent IL stints. From June 22 through July 11, he tallied 72 plate appearances and turned in a .281/.361/.453 batting line with two homers, three doubles and a triple. However, the Yankees acquired Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline and already have a crowded designated hitter scene now that Joey Gallo has been added to an outfield mix that also includes Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton. Per Martino, the team has at least discussed the possibility of optioning Voit to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre — a notion that not long ago would’ve seemed unthinkable.

With Rizzo now entrenched at first base and Giancarlo Stanton slotting in as the designated hitter most nights, there’s suddenly no room for Voit in the lineup. The Yankees are also currently employing a short bench of just three players, making positional flexibility more important than usual. Voit’s only time away from first base was a single inning in right field in 2018.

Rizzo is a free agent at year’s end, which could potentially open the door for Voit to retake his position at first base and in the lineup next year — assuming the team doesn’t again explore the market for Voit this winter. Voit, after all, would figure to have plenty of value to other clubs this offseason if the Yankees ultimately move in another direction. He’s due a raise on this year’s $4.7MM salary, but his injuries and the ensuing lack of counting stats will suppress the total of that raise. Voit is also controlled through the 2024 season, so an interested club could look to buy low in hopes of securing a longer-term option at first base.

In the short term, Voit began a rehab assignment in Triple-A on Tuesday and work to get back into game shape after a month on the injured list. Whether he immediately returns to the Yankees after that remains to be seen.

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