Mike Moustakas

9 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

By Jeff Todd | November 6, 2017 at 5:21pm CDT

Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.4MM. Now that the dust has settled, we know that nine players will weigh those decisions for the next ten days.

That falls on the lower end of the spectrum, matching the prior low from 2012 (the first season that the QO system was in operation). On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. Last year, after all, there were only ten recipients. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.

New rules went into effect this winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how it’ll work this time around. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):

Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs (source)
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals (post)
Alex Cobb, SP, Rays (post)
Wade Davis, RP, Cubs (source)
Greg Holland, RP, Rockies (source)
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals (post)
Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals (post)
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (post)
Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians (post)

Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Zack Cozart of the Reds (post), Andrew Cashner of the Rangers (post), and Logan Morrison of the Rays (post) were among the closest calls that went against the offer.

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Saturday

By Jeff Todd | November 4, 2017 at 1:25am CDT

The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. The Rockies dropped a QO on Michael Cuddyer in 2014, for example, while the Nationals decided against giving one to Edwin Jackson back in the QO’s first year of operation (2012), only to see him sign a four-year deal with the Cubs.

Here’s the latest chatter from around the game:

The Royals, unsurprisingly, will issue qualifying offers to each of their three major free agents, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain each feature prominently on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents — indeed, all are rated among the seven most valuable players on the open market — so it’s hardly surprising to learn that K.C. is going in this direction. That said, there had been at least some suggestion that the team had yet to decide on Cain, who is a fair bit older than the other two departing core members of the Royals’ memorable 2014-15 teams. He still figures to be in high demand as the best-available center field on the upcoming market. All told, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three players accepts the qualifying offer, meaning that the Royals ought to be lined up for a nice haul of draft picks once the dust settles. (Of course, it’s also still possible that one or even more than one of these players will return to Kansas City, in which case no draft compensation would be triggered for that player.)

Rosenthal’s Latest: Royals, Otani, Nationals, Dodgers

By charliewilmoth | September 16, 2017 at 3:53pm CDT

Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video from FOX Sports.

The Royals’ best course with potential free agents Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer might be to extend qualifying offers to all of them, Rosenthal opines. That would at least give them a windfall of draft picks if all three players were to sign big contracts elsewhere. The Royals seem to be running out of time to contend, and the extra draft picks would give them a head start on reloading.
There has been some chatter about the possibility that teams could circumvent posting rules to lure Shohei Otani by promising to sign him to a small deal now and a big extension in the future. Rosenthal, though, notes that the league would not allow such an arrangement. Of course, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out, the signing team would have plausible deniability if it waited to officially strike the second deal until after Otani had played in the Majors for a year, since teams frequently try to sign top young talents to extensions. Such a deal would have to fit in with established precedents, however.
The Nationals’ recent promotion of top prospect Victor Robles underscores just how many outfield options the team will have even if Bryce Harper departs via free agency following the 2018 season, Rosenthal says. In addition to Robles, they have Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton and Brian Goodwin, all of whom are under team control for the next several seasons, plus another top young prospect in Juan Soto.
The Dodgers’ outstanding depth could allow them to use lefty starter Alex Wood and righty Kenta Maeda as multi-inning relievers in the playoffs, Rosenthal notes. That means the Dodgers would be able to use quick hooks on any starter having a bad outing.

Cafardo’s Latest: Verlander, Royals, A’s, Mets, Nats

By Connor Byrne | July 1, 2017 at 8:04pm CDT

As the trade deadline approaches, the possibility of the Tigers dealing right-hander Justin Verlander seems more realistic than ever before, suggests Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Tigers, who own the American League’s third-worst record (36-43) and are trying to cut payroll, would be willing to eat some of the money remaining on Verlander’s contract, per Cafardo. In addition to what’s left of his $28MM salary this season, Verlander is due $28MM in each of the next two seasons. Additionally, Verlander has a $22MM vesting option for 2020, but that will only trigger if he finishes in the top five of the AL Cy Young voting in 2019. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the 34-year-old has full no-trade rights.

More of Cafardo’s weekly rumblings:

Having rallied from a dreadful start to climb over .500 (40-39) and into the playoff race, the Royals could look to acquire a front-line pitcher by the deadline, a team official told Cafardo. “We’re constantly evaluating where we are, but right now we feel we have a chance to take the division,” said the official. “Our core players are all playing well right now. If that changes, we have time to make that change, but we’re proceeding like we’re in this to win.” Kansas City is just two games back in the AL Central and a half-game out of the wild card, so the team certainly doesn’t look as if it has the makings of a seller. As such, agent Scott Boras doesn’t expect the Royals to move clients Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas, both of whom will be eligible for free agency after the season.
The Athletics are likely to trade relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, according to Cafardo, who names the Nationals and Yankees as potential suitors. Madson, who’s on a $7.5MM salary both this year and next, has bounced back from a so-so 2016 to post a 2.53 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.69 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate in 32 innings this season. The oft-injured Doolittle has only thrown 16 1/3 frames, but he has been highly effective (3.31 ERA, 12.67 K/9, 1.1 BB/9); what’s more, he’s controllable for reasonable prices through 2020.
Another reliever, the Mets’ Addison Reed, could also end up on the move. Odds are, though, that he won’t head to the Nationals, writes Cafardo. The Mets apparently aren’t open to helping the NL East rival Nats fix their bullpen issues.

Trade Chatter: Jays, Braves, O’s, ChiSox, BoSox, Bucs, Dodgers, Tigers

By Steve Adams | June 23, 2017 at 8:15am CDT

While the Blue Jays got off to a terrible start in 2017, their strong play from late April through early June has them back in the mix for a Wild Card spot, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand as part of a look at numerous trade-related topics. As such, the Jays don’t seem like obvious sellers at the moment — a sentiment that GM Ross Atkins himself suggested to Feinsand. “Obviously we’re not pleased with our record, but we’re pleased with the fact that our team was able to dig out of a significant hole,” the GM said. “…Now we’re very much in it. We can’t climb back into one of those holes, because there’s not as much time left.” The Jays fell to 35-37 with tonight’s loss, though they’re still just five back in the AL East and 2.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. Feinsand notes that the injury to Devon Travis makes second base the biggest need Toronto faces between now and the trade deadline and lists a few speculative targets for Toronto, including Ian Kinsler and Jed Lowrie.

A bit more from Feinsand and some other trade chatter to close out the night…

The Braves have already received interest in Jaime Garcia, Brandon Phillips and Jason Motte, Feinsand reports, but the Braves are likely to hold for now as they seek to generate interest from additional clubs. Garcia was hit hard for the second straight start tonight, but he’s been solid for the majority of the season and could step into the back of a contender’s rotation as a reliable source of league-average innings. Phillips, meanwhile, has been quietly productive in his first season with Atlanta, and the Reds are on the hook for nearly all of his salary. And Motte, since inking a minors pact with the Braves, has turned in a 2.14 ERA through 21 innings, albeit with some very unappealing peripherals (5.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, .179 BABIP, 5.89 FIP, 5.09 SIERA).
Despite a lack of starting pitching and a very rough stretch over the past month, the Orioles still view themselves as contenders, GM Dan Duquette tells FanRag’s Jon Heyman. “We have a number of players who are capable of playing better and contributing more to the 2017 team than they have to date,” says Duquette. “…They have all played to a much higher level than they have played at so far this season. We are still contenders and we look forward to these players contributing to the club.” Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day are among the rebound candidates listed by Duquette, whose Orioles are 13-28 in their past 41 games.
While the White Sox are known to be open for business, Heyman reports that there isn’t presently much of a market for Todd Frazier or Melky Cabrera. He hears that the Sox would “have to practically give [Frazier] away” or at eat virtually all of his salary in a trade. Frazier’s swinging a hot bat in June (.269/.351/.537, five homers), so perhaps he’s beginning to turn it around and boost that stock. Cabrera, meanwhile, is hitting quite well in 2017 after a slow start to the year, as he’s slashed .331/.386/.480 over the past calendar month. I’d imagine, however, that his $15MM salary and defensive shortcomings limit his market despite the improved production. Also of ChiSox note: Heyman writes that there’s no evidence of recent talks with the Nationals regarding David Robertson.
The Red Sox should be able to add about $9MM to their payroll this summer without crossing the luxury tax barrier, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While around $2MM of that sum could be set aside for the salary that’ll need to be paid for internal promotions, Boston should have the remaining funds to address one, if not two needs, provided they don’t break the bank for a starting pitcher. Speier again lists Todd Frazier as a possibility, and Heyman linked the Red Sox to the Royals’ Mike Moustakas in his aforementioned column. Feinsand notes that Boston is indeed “in the market” for third base help as well, with Pablo Sandoval back on the DL and not playing well even when on the field.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi runs down a host of trade-related topics in his latest column, echoing recent suggestions from FOX’s Ken Rosenthal that the Pirates are likelier to trade Andrew McCutchen than Gerrit Cole. However, execs around the game do expect Pittsburgh to at least listen to offers on Cole, Morosi writes, though it may be hard for the Bucs to sell low on Cole.
The Dodgers are more focused on adding rotation help than landing a significant bat due largely to the emergence of Cody Bellinger, per Morosi. According to Morosi, though, the Tigers have eyes on Dodgers prospect Alex Verdugo and would like to come away from the 2017 trade deadline with a center field option for the 2018 season, if they emerge as sellers. (Detroit hasn’t yet made that determination, he adds.) Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez, Morosi points out, could be among the targets the Dodgers look at if they do elect to pursue a right-handed-hitting outfielder, though that connection is made speculatively, and I’d expect the Dodgers to be rather reluctant to part with a near-MLB-ready asset such as Verdugo in order to land a rental like Martinez.

Trade Rumblings: Cozart, Alonso, Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers, Cards

By Connor Byrne | June 18, 2017 at 4:13pm CDT

Even though Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has surprisingly been among the majors’ best players this year, there probably won’t be many teams bidding for him at the trade deadline, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required and recommended). Most contenders are in search of pitching, not shortstops, which could hinder the Reds’ efforts to land a quality return for the free agent-to-be. The same lack of demand at shortstop might end up applying to both first base and the outfield, observes Olney, who notes that it may be a problem for Pittsburgh if it tries move Andrew McCutchen or Kansas City in the event it markets Eric Hosmer and/or Lorenzo Cain.

More rumblings as the deadline draws closer:

Breakout first baseman Yonder Alonso would like to sign an extension with the Athletics, but they’re “nearly certain” to put him on the block, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Contrary to Olney’s argument that there might not be much of a market for first basemen, Morosi contends that three AL playoff hopefuls – New York, Seattle and Los Angeles – could each stand to upgrade at the position. The Yankees will prioritize beefing up their rotation and may battle the Red Sox for Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, per Morosi, but Greg Bird’s injury issues might also put Alonso on their radar. The lefty-swinging, fly ball-hitting Alonso, who has slashed .302/.397/.630 with 17 home runs in 219 plate appearances during a contract year, would seemingly be a perfect fit for the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Cain could be ideal for the Dodgers, argues Morosi, who suggests they’re likely to adjust their outfield alignment in the coming weeks. Of course, barring other moves, picking up another outfielder would add to an already crowded situation in the grass for LA. The club currently has stellar rookie Cody Bellinger, unexpected 2017 star Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson in the mix as prominent outfield options, with Enrique Hernandez and Franklin Gutierrez adding further depth and Andre Ethier on the disabled list.
Along with potentially addressing their outfield, it’s “increasingly apparent” that the Dodgers will look for rotation help, relays Morosi. Dodgers starters rank third in the majors in both ERA and fWAR, but Morosi points out that some of their hurlers are health risks and they’ll also want to avoid starting ace Clayton Kershaw on short rest if they get to the NLDS. Kershaw took the hill in that scenario during each of the previous four division series in which the Dodgers participated.
While Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez’s name has come up in connection to St. Louis, the fact that the Cardinals are 11.5 games out of a wild-card spot might steer them away from position player rentals, notes Olney. As of now, the Redbirds only have one realistic path to a playoff berth – by winning the NL Central – but they also have plenty of ground to make up there (5.5 games). Moreover, they may have a sleeping giant to contend with in the reigning champion Cubs, who are 2.5 games behind upstart Milwaukee for the division lead.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Marlins, Tribe, Tigers, Mets, Yanks, Astros

By Connor Byrne | May 28, 2017 at 2:41pm CDT

With the trade deadline drawing nearer, FanRag’s Jon Heyman lists 70 players who could end up on the block over the next two months. Heyman ranks the players in order of name value and includes the likes of Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Josh Donaldson and Ryan Braun near the top of the list. Check out the full piece for an in-depth look at which stars and role players might switch uniforms this summer.

Now the latest from Heyman’s American League and National League notes columns:

Prior to the season, Royals impending free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer shot down a report that he was seeking a 10-year deal. But there’s still a belief within the organization that he will request something close to a decadelong pact in the coming months, per Heyman, who adds that Hosmer is the soon-to-be free agent the Royals most want to keep. However, Kansas City hasn’t made a serious offer to Hosmer on account of what could be a lofty asking price, and the team expects the 27-year-old to reach free agency. Fellow longtime Royals Mike Moustakas (third base), Lorenzo Cain (center field) and Alcides Escobar (shortstop) are also likely to hit the market in the offseason. Moustakas is the Royals’ biggest priority after Hosmer, suggests Heyman, while they seem resigned to the idea that Cain will find a larger payday elsewhere. Escobar, the weakest player of the four, could re-sign if the price is right. At one point, he was seeking $10MM per year, but his cost has come down thanks to his dreadful offensive start (.174/.203/.228 in 196 plate appearances). Meanwhile, right-hander Ian Kennedy probably won’t opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM left on his contract, Heyman writes.
Alex Rodriguez could still factor into the Marlins’ next ownership group if the faction including Tagg Romney, Tom Glavine and Dave Stewart lands the franchise. Given A-Rod’s controversial past, the Romney team is keeping him “at arm’s length” for now; even if they weren’t, Rodriguez isn’t allowed to be part of an ownership group as long as he’s still collecting a salary from the Yankees. The 41-year-old’s contract with the Bombers expires at season’s end. His former teammate Derek Jeter, who’s vying with Jeb Bush and against Romney & Co. to purchase the Marlins, isn’t planning to invest much money, says Heyman. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Bush and Jeter are leading the race to acquire the franchise.
Heyman reported in April that the Indians would look to extend first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana, but discussions between the two sides still haven’t taken place. They might not occur, either, as Heyman relays that Santana is likely to hit free agency at season’s end. At .219/.321/.390 in 215 PAs, the 31-year-old hasn’t carried his typically above-average production into this season so far, but he continues to exhibit quality plate discipline with 27 walks against 31 strikeouts. Santana’s walk rate has dropped in each season since 2014, however, and is now at a career-low 12.6 percent.
When the offseason rolls around, odds are that Tigers left fielder Justin Upton will not opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his deal, reports Heyman. “Not happening,” one rival general manager said of a potential opt-out. Upton hasn’t lived up to his lucrative contract in his year-plus in Detroit, putting him on track to take the bird-in-the-hand approach.
It appears first baseman Lucas Duda is in his final season with the Mets, as Heyman implies that he’s primed to sign elsewhere over the winter. The 31-year-old power hitter has been among the Mets’ top players this season, having slashed .267/.406/.570 with six home runs in 106 PAs, but they do have a well-regarded youngster behind him in Dominic Smith. Baseball America sees Smith, 21, as the game’s 65th-best prospect.
Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is making $557,900 this year, according to Heyman, who reported in March that the backstop had agreed to a salary worth more than the minimum of $535K.
Add the Astros to the list of teams interested in Cuban shortstop prospect Jose Israel Garcia, who recently became a free agent. The Astros have already exceeded their pool allotment for the 2016-17 international free agent class, which could indicate that they’re looking to sign the 19-year-old Garcia before the period ends June 15.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Royals, D-backs, Brewers

By Connor Byrne | May 20, 2017 at 8:13pm CDT

The Mets have not resumed contract extension talks with second baseman Neil Walker, and it’s doubtful they will before the offseason, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). New York would rather enter the winter with flexibility at various positions than commit to Walker, with whom it discussed a three-year deal in the $40MM range before tabling talks in February. Walker, 31, is on a $17.2MM salary after accepting a qualifying offer last fall, and has returned from a season-ending back injury in 2016 to post a decent .255/.327/.423 line in 168 plate appearances this year.

Cafardo’s Latest: Beane, Marlins, Royals, Upton, Las Vegas

By charliewilmoth | April 8, 2017 at 1:57pm CDT

Here are the highlights of the latest from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

15 years after rejecting an offer from the Red Sox that would have made him the highest-paid GM in the game, the Athletics’ Billy Beane says he doesn’t regret staying in Oakland. “It turned out pretty well for the Red Sox and I have had a great run here and have enjoyed it here a great deal,” says Beane, citing a desire to be closer to his family as one reason he stayed. The Red Sox, of course, instead hired Theo Epstein, who led them to their first two World Series since 1918.
The Marlins feel they’ve made a significant upgrade in replacing hitting coach Barry Bonds with Mike Pagliarulo. Bonds obviously knew how to hit, as Cafardo notes, but “communicating it and devoting himself to it became an issue.” Pagliarulo has been proactive about developing plans for Marlins hitters. The Giants, meanwhile, hired Bonds as a special advisor.
Melvin Upton Jr. might not remain a free agent for long, Cafardo writes. Upton hit poorly in his brief stint with the Blue Jays, but had previously revived his career in San Diego, and there’s hope he can once again turn things around. “You just never know when you get him on the uptick and that feeling is what teams are going to look for when they need an outfielder,” says one American League evaluator. The Padres are paying most of Upton’s remaining salary, so he’ll be a cheap addition for his next team.
The Royals began their season by getting swept by the Twins and will have to perform well in the next few months, or else the team could move quickly to deal free-agents-to-be like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain. Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy could also hit the market if the Royals were to struggle.
The city of Las Vegas “really wants” an MLB team, particularly after landing an NFL team in the Raiders, Cafardo writes. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has previously expressed interest in Las Vegas as an MLB market.

Make Or Break Year: Mike Moustakas

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 3:22pm CDT

MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.

There are several “make or break” candidates on this year’s Royals team, with pending free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar all having much to prove. But there’s as much variance for third baseman Mike Moustakas as there is for any of those other core K.C. players, and he’ll face the added uncertainty of coming back from an ACL tear suffered last May.

Moustakas, who’ll turn 29 in September, was long viewed as a quality prospect who just hadn’t gained traction in the majors. Through the 2014 season, he had accumulated only a .236/.290/.379 batting line in over 500 games of MLB action. But Moustakas showed life in the 2014 postseason, raising hopes yet again that he’d finally come into his own on the playing field.

As it turned out, that’s just what happened. Moustakas blossomed in the Royals’ 2015 World Series campaign, setting personal-best marks in every triple-slash category (.284/.348/.470) while driving a career-high 22 long balls. And he continued to draw solid ratings for his glovework at the hot corner, leading to a 3.6 fWAR / 4.4 rWAR campaign in which he finally rewarded the organization’s commitment.

Things were off to a rather promising start in 2016, with Moustakas carrying a .240/.301/.500 slash when he hit the operating table. That’s all the more impressive given that he was held back by a .214 BABIP in spite of a 37.4% hard-hit percentage that is better than he’s ever managed over a full season. Plus, Moustakas had tamped down his already excellent strikeout ratio to a personal-low 11.5% level while boosting his walk rate to 8.0%, just below league average. Moustakas was also showing further strides in converting flyballs to home runs, with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio.

All said, the arrow has pointed up for Moustakas ever since he turned things on late in 2014. If he can regain that momentum and prove he’s back to full health, perhaps the missed time won’t prove a major hindrance to his earning power. A big season from Moustakas could leave him targeting something approaching the Pablo Sandoval contract (five years, $95MM), though perhaps only a true breakout campaign would make that achievable. But there’s plenty of earning power downside, too; after all, Moustakas has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his MLB career, and anything short of a productive campaign might put quite a different spin on his overall track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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