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Mets, Edwin Diaz Avoid Arbitration

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The Mets are avoiding arbitration with relievers Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro. Díaz will make $7MM next season, reports MLB.com Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Lugo comes in at $2.925MM, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Castro, meanwhile, will make $1.6875MM, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. All three pitchers are controllable through the end of the 2022 season.

Díaz comes in above his projected salary range of $5.1MM — $6.5MM. After a rocky first season in Queens, he was brilliant last year. The 26-year-old pitched to a 1.75 ERA with a 45.5% strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified relievers.

Lugo and Castro, meanwhile, fall within their projected ranges. Lugo had some tough bottom line results last year but much more impressive underlying numbers. Castro was adequate for the Mets, who acquired him midseason from the Orioles. Earlier today, New York also came to terms with Robert Gsellman and Dominic Smith.

East Notes: Mets, Jays, Lindor, Red Sox, Devers

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The Mets won the Francisco Lindor sweepstakes when they acquired the star shortstop from Cleveland in a blockbuster trade earlier this week. It turns out that the Blue Jays finished second in the derby, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com reports. While Castrovince isn’t sure which other players were involved in the teams’ trade talks, the Blue Jays offered “what is probably a higher ceiling,” he writes. The problem for Toronto is that the prospects it put on the table weren’t that close to being ready for the majors, so Cleveland accepted an offer that it expects to be beneficial in both the short and long term.

  • The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have not discussed a multiyear contract to this point, agent Nelson Montes de Oca told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. For now, the focus is on agreeing to a salary for 2021 by next Friday’s deadline to file figures. The Red Sox renewed Devers for a near-minimum $692,500 heading into last year, even though he was coming off a tremendous campaign. The 24-year-old is now eligible for arbitration, where he’s projected to collect anywhere from $3.4MM to $6.3MM. Unfortunately for Devers, he’s going into the process off a down season in which he slashed .263/.310/.483 with 11 home runs in 248 plate appearances. Barring an extension, Devers won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023.
  • Back to the Mets, who seem primed to move right-hander Seth Lugo back to the bullpen in 2021, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. Lugo has been highly successful as a reliever in the past, but he had a tough time last year after the Mets moved him into their rotation. They’re now largely set there with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson in line to comprise their top four when next season opens. They’ll also get righty Noah Syndergaard back from his Tommy John surgery sometime during the summer.
  • The Blue Jays have signed hitting coach Guillermo Martinez to a two-year contract extension, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays. Martinez has been on the job since 2018. The Blue Jays’ offense finished seventh in the majors in runs and 11th in wRC+ under his tutelage last season.

Mets Rotation Update

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A month ago, the New York Mets made the bold move to transition two of their highest-volume relievers to the rotation. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo each came to the majors with expectations of starting, but after years of working effectively out of the bullpen, the Mets gambled by moving the pair back to the rotation mid-season. The experiment is over for Gsellman, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.

Gsellman’s longest outing was a 4-inning stint in which he allowed one run while striking out four and walking none. While the Mets eventually lost that game 2-1, it was the only game of the four Gsellman started that went that way. Still, short outings and an 8.68 ERA suggest Gsellman is better suited to returning to his usual role in the bullpen, where the Mets rank 11th as a team by ERA and 12th by FIP.

Besides, the Mets’ rotation is full again with ace Jacob deGrom followed by Rick Porcello, David Peterson, and Michael Wacha. The 25-year-old Peterson has been a pleasant surprise, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA/4.02 FIP. His emergence has been especially important considering the de-evolution and subsequent injured list stint for fellow southpaw Steven Matz. Matz slumped to a 0-4 mark with an unsightly 8.63 ERA/6.69 FIP before being placed on the injured list for shoulder bursitis.

The right-handed, non-deGrom, veteran division of the rotation – consisting of Porcello and Wacha – have produced subpar results by measure of ERA, but take a look at an ERA-indicator like FIP and you’ll find a much different story. Porcello boasts just a 1-4 record over 8 starts (39 innings) with a 5.54 ERA – but a 2.97 FIP. Wacha, similarly, has a horrid 7.20 ERA over 5 starts (20 innings) – but a much more respectable 4.40 FIP. Wacha in particular has shown an impressive 12.2 K/9, easily a career high, but he’s also surrendered 12.6 hits per nine innings, a mark that’s equally outside his career norms. A .429 BABIP against might be partially responsible for the discrepancy between FIP and ERA, giving the Mets cause to believe in their rotation over the season’s final three weeks.

Lugo will continue to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation. Long one of New York’s most reliable relievers, Lugo has continued to impress from the rotation. While no stranger to the rotation – Lugo made 31 starts from 2016 to 2018 – he worked exclusively out of the pen in 2019 for an identical 2.70 ERA/FIP across 61 appearances covering 80 innings. He’s been their most reliable bullpen arm in recent seasons, but having acquired Miguel Castro from the Orioles at the deadline and moving Gsellman back to the pen, the Mets are betting that they can afford to keep Lugo in the rotation for now. The 30-year-old has done an admirable job stretching himself to starter’s minutes, culminating in a 5-inning outing his last time out. In total, Lugo has a 1.54 ERA across 11 2/3 innings since moving to the rotation.

Mets Move Steven Matz To Bullpen; Seth Lugo Joining Rotation

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The Mets have moved left-hander Steven Matz to the bullpen and will shift setup man Seth Lugo back into a starting role, manager Luis Rojas revealed after last night’s game (Twitter link via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). Lugo will take the ball to start tonight’s game.

The 29-year-old Matz was excellent in his first start of 2020 but has since been clobbered for 22 runs on 28 hits (eight homers) and five walks in just 17 innings. He hasn’t gotten out of the fifth in any of his past three starts and is toting a 9.00 ERA in 23 frames overall. Lugo, meanwhile, has once again been sharp out of the ’pen, with a 2.61 ERA and an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio in 10 1/3 frames. By subtracting him from the late-inning mix, the Mets are betting that others like Justin Wilson, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach, Dellin Betances and most importantly Edwin Diaz will be able to find consistent success as games draw to a close. Lugo has a career 2.53 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 188 2/3 relief innings, compared to a 4.06 ERA and 4.16 FIP in 168 1/3 innings as a starter.

It’s the latest shakeup in a Mets season that has been punctuated by rotation troubles. The Mets believed they’d stockpiled a strong group of starters, one through six, but only Jacob deGrom has performed as hoped. Noah Syndergaard didn’t pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, and Marcus Stroman opted out of the 2020 season entirely. Matz has stumbled through one of the bleakest stretches of his career, while reclamation projects Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha haven’t paid dividends. Porcello, to his credit, has had some rough luck on balls in play and pitched much better since a disastrous Mets debut. Wacha is on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation.

The Mets’ options beyond that sextet have long appeared to be lacking, although 2017 first-rounder David Peterson proved to be a bright spot … until he landed on the injured list due to shoulder troubles of his own. It’s notable that a recent MRI confirmed that there’s no structural damage in Peterson’s shoulder (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand), but he still won’t be an option until next week.

Aside from Peterson, fallback options like Corey Oswalt and Walker Lockett haven’t impressed. The club has instead shifted Robert Gsellman and now Lugo back into the starting mix. It wasn’t long ago that there was some spirited debate over whether that pair would be starters or relievers for the long haul. Both settled in as bullpen pieces, with Lugo in particular emerging as a high-end option. But the inadequacies among current Mets starters have now forced both right-handers back into the rotation picture.

Lugo will join deGrom, Porcello, Gsellman and (once healthy) Peterson in a rotation that can’t resemble anything the Mets’ front office might have anticipated heading into the season. But for all their pitching woes, the Mets remain in the playoff hunt thanks to a strong offense that ranks second in MLB with a 122 wRC+. They’ve rattled off three straight wins, and while they’re sitting at a pedestrian 12-14 on the year, the good news for them is that the rest of the NL East looks similarly underwhelming. The Braves lead the way at 14-11, but their own rotation has been decimated by injury, leaving ample space for the Mets to close the mere two-and-a-half game gap that separates them.

Given that the Wilpon family is reportedly deep in the process of fielding offers to sell the club, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets approach the looming Aug. 31 trade deadline with a clear buyer’s mentality. This could be the last opportunity for current ownership to secure the World Series title that alluded them when they fell to the Royals in 2015, and it only stands to reason that they’d take one final shot while they have the chance.

As for Matz himself, his future is decidedly murky. He could be a potential change-of-scenery candidate with the deadline looming, and even if he sticks with the Mets, he’ll have limited opportunities to turn things around as a low-leverage bullpen option. He’s on a $5MM salary for the 2020 season and will be arbitration-eligible for a third and final time this winter. It’s hardly a given that the Mets will want to allocate the necessary resources to retain him through the arbitration process.

Mets Notes: Rotation, Rosario, Gimenez, Peterson

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Robert Gsellman’s first start as a member of the Mets’ rotation this week lasted just two innings, as the right-hander is still getting stretched out after opening the year in the bullpen. But manager Luis Rojas expressed confidence this week that the righty can “have some stamina for us” and “give us that depth to start a game” as he builds up (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). The 27-year-old Gsellman said he “felt like a little kid again” as he prepped for his first start since 2017, and DiComo notes that a move back into the rotation has long been something for which Gsellman has hoped. Righty Seth Lugo, too, has expressed interest in getting back into a starter’s role, but the Mets are more reluctant to alter his role given the resounding success he’s enjoyed as a late-inning weapon in recent years. Lugo has a career 2.50 ERA out of the ’pen and has punched out 28.3 percent of the hitters he’s faced in a relief role. Those numbers dip to 4.06 and 19.2 percent, respectively, in a nearly equal sample of innings as a starter.

More on the Mets…

  • Amed Rosario has struggled to begin the season while top prospect Andres Gimenez has thrived in his early looks at shortstop. However, Rojas told reporters yesterday that Rosario is still the team’s starting shortstop (link via Newsday’s David Lennon). Rosario was out of action due to what the Mets termed as a stomach illness, but Rojas acknowledged after the game that the team is also “looking to get him back on track” at the plate. Rosario is hitting .207/.207/.310 to Gimenez’s .286/.327/.388. Gimenez has also played sharp defense and is tied for the MLB lead with five steals, but for now, it seems as though he’ll continue to slot in around the diamond. That could mean a move back to second base once Rosario is well enough to return to the lineup, but a changing of the guard at shortstop still doesn’t sound imminent. Gimenez, 20, has been generally considered to be among MLB’s top 100 prospects for the past couple of seasons, although Rosario himself was regarded as an elite prospect prior to his own ascension to the Majors.
  • Left-hander David Peterson exited yesterday’s outing after just 74 pitches and revealed that he’s dealing with some shoulder fatigue (link via Mike Puma of the New York Post). Peterson, the Mets’ first-round pick back in 2017, had held the Nationals to a run one hit and a pair of walks through five strong innings. He said after the game that he’s not concerned with his shoulder issue. The Mets can ill afford any further hits to their rotation, particularly a loss of Peterson, who has been a godsend in the absence of Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman. Through his first four MLB starts this year, Peterson has a 2.91 ERA and 3.96 FIP with a 17-to-8 K/BB ratio and just two homers allowed in 21 2/3 innings.

Mets Considering Creative Approach To 5th Starter Spot

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The Mets are at least pondering a less-than-standard approach to filling their fifth starter’s spot, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s possible that neither Steven Matz nor Michael Wacha will simply win the job in camp.

[RELATED: Camp Battles: Mets Rotation]

Other organizations have already acted effectively upon the fundamental premise. The Mets would shed typical forms in favor of a flexible arrangement that maximizes the abilities of the players on hand.

It’s certainly an intriguing concept, at least in some of its forms. There are several possibilities, per Sherman: Matz and Wacha could essentially tag in and out of the rotation depending upon matchups. The team might also utilize an opener. While the premise isn’t specifically contemplated in Sherman’s piece, it stands to reason that those two starters could also be utilized in a piggyback arrangement at times.

This all obviously depends upon health. Most contending organizations strive to have more arms available than is needed on paper, since it’s rare that all can be called upon at a given time. In this case, especially, that’s a major factor since both Matz and Wacha have dealt with fairly significant health limitations in recent years.

As Sherman explains, there are other factors to be considered as well. It’s tempting to imagine a game opened by Seth Lugo, carried by multi-inning stints from Matz and/or Wacha, and then closed down by power relievers Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Edwin Diaz. But the realities of day-to-day pitching management likely won’t allow such a clean progression on a regular basis. And the fact is, for all their individual and collective upside, every one of those hurlers enters the season with a significant downside scenario.

All of that isn’t to say this concept isn’t worth exploring. To the contrary, this seems like a logical application of shifts we’ve witnessed in recent years. Perhaps some starters shouldn’t be tasked with quite so many innings, while some relievers can handle more. The Mets’ own array of talent does seem to suit an adaptable methodology.

Mixing and matching and generally acting flexibly can have obvious advantages. There’ll also be some potential pitfalls to be navigated. Taken as a whole, the idea only makes the already interesting Mets more fun to watch.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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GM Meetings Notes: Mets, White Sox, Red Sox

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The Mets have about $20MM to spend to stay under the luxury tax, and though they haven’t ruled out going over for a season, history suggests otherwise, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The rotation is largely set with Cy Young Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz locked into the top four spots. Despite the rumblings, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been adamant about Syndergaard staying put, and as for the fifth rotation spot, relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are very real candidates. Free agent upgrades are more likely to bolster the bullpen, which is already a man down if Lugo or Gsellman jump to the rotation. Of course, the best upgrade they could hope for would come in the form of a bounceback season from closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz is putting in extra work this winter in Puerto Rico, and for what it’s worth, new manager and fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltran “considers mentoring Diaz one of his top priorities.” Here are some more notes coming out of the GM meetings…

  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.
  • The Red Sox are facing a different kind of offseason under the leadership of Chaim Bloom, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Scaling back the payroll is objective A, and the Red Sox are active in trade discussions around just about everyone on the roster. The media has Mookie Betts as the fulcrum of Boston’s trade activity, but he’s expensive on a one-year deal and unlikely to sign an extension, mitigating any trade return and making a deal unlikely. It’s more likely the Red Sox find their desired breathing room by trading from their rotation: David Price, Chris Sale, and/or Nathan Eovaldi. Meanwhile, discussions with free agents are largely on the backburner as they look for creative ways to free up space in the payroll.

Latest On Mets’ Rotation

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The Mets have begun the offseason in a bit of a bind in their rotation. On one hand, they have a 1-4 most teams would gladly sign up for in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. On the other, they’re facing the loss of Zack Wheeler – undoubtedly one of the best free agents available – and find themselves lacking answers at the back of their starting staff.

Considering the Mets play in a massive market, they should theoretically have the money to re-sign Wheeler and/or acquire some other pricey starter. But the Mets don’t behave like a team with a near-endless supply of money, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained a couple weeks ago, paying for improvements looks as if it will be a challenge for the club this offseason. The Mets have never started a season with a $160MM-plus payroll, yet they already appear to be above that figure right now without having made a single offseason improvement. Barring a significant spike in payroll, then, it’s doubtful the Mets will be serious players for Wheeler or any other starters who are remotely close to the top of the market.

Thanks in part to their payroll problems, the Mets seem to be making in-house contingency plans for the back of their starting staff. When introducing new manager Carlos Beltran on Monday, GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters including Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription link) that the Mets are considering deploying Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo as starters in 2020. The two “are preparing this offseason with the expectations that they may well enter the rotation,” according to Van Wagenen.

Gsellman and Lugo were starters as prospects who frequented the Mets’ rotation a few years back, but they’ve settled into relief roles in recent years. Still just 26 years old, Gsellman thrived as a starter during a brief debut in 2016, but his bubble burst the next season. Since then, all 120 of Gsellman’s appearances have come as a reliever. He amassed 63 2/3 innings over 52 appearances this year and logged a 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP with 8.48 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9. Those aren’t great numbers, though Gsellman did average a career-high 95.4 mph on his fastball and 90.6 mph on his slider. He also ranked near the top of the majors in curveball spin (83rd percentile), hard-hit rate against (88th percentile) and average exit velocity against (85.3 mph; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.

Gsellman’s more traditional production hasn’t been dominant, whereas Lugo has been lights-out since moving to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis in 2018. The soon-to-be 30-year-old pitched to a matching 2.70 ERA/FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates (11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9) in 61 appearances and 80 innings this season. Like Gsellman, Lugo’s fastball (94.4 mph) and slider (88.1 mph) clocked in at personal highs, and he was another Statcast favorite. Amazingly, Lugo’s curve spin ranked in the game’s 100th percentile, while his expected weighted on-base average against (.234, compared to a real .237 wOBA against) placed in the 99th percentile.

To varying extents, Gsellman and Lugo have clearly been assets for New York’s bullpen. Whether that would carry into the team’s starting five if necessary remains to be seen. However, moving one or both into the rotation may just create another hole for the club. The Mets’ bullpen, after all, was a consistent issue throughout this year and looks like an area they’ll somehow have to address as a result. That already looks as if it will be difficult when considering what seems like a lack of financial wiggle room for the team, and that’s with Gsellman and Lugo penciled in to remain part of the late-game setup.

The Mets are in a good spot with deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman and Matz, though there’s little in the way of solutions or depth otherwise. That helps explain why Van Wagenen claimed lefty Stephen Gonsalves, a former top 100 prospect, from the Twins on Monday. Gonsalves could end up as one of at least a few low-cost hurlers the Mets pick up this offseason as they look for back-of-the-rotation help. But if no one they bring in pans out, perhaps Gsellman or Lugo will slot back into a starting role.

Quick Hits: Diaz, Rays, Prospects, Stanek, Black

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Edwin Diaz’s struggles may finally be loosening his grip on the Mets’ closing job, as manager Mickey Callaway told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey) that “I don’t think we can lock ourselves in to one thing” in terms of who pitches the ninth inning.  “Moving forward, it’s just something that we’re going to do whatever we can to win a game that night,” Callaway said.  After a dominant 2018 season with the Mariners, Diaz’s first season in Queens has been a borderline disaster, with a 5.44 ERA inflated by a 22.2% home run rate and a huge increase in the righty’s hard-hit ball rate.  Just when it seemed like Diaz might have been turning a corner by tossing six scoreless innings over a seven-game stretch in July, he proceeded to allow at least one earned run in each of his last four outings.

This would seem to open the door for Seth Lugo to receive save opportunities, as Callaway said that Lugo also isn’t operating out of an assigned role.  Lugo has been the Mets’ best reliever this season, and could be shifted into closer duties or (if the Mets strayed from the traditional closer role) be saved only for highest-leverage situations, whether those are in the ninth inning or earlier in the game.

Here’s more as we begin a new week…

  • The Rays’ busy trade deadline is explored by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, who includes the detail that the club wasn’t willing to discuss moving many of their top prospects, including Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Vidal Brujan and Matthew Liberatore.  Jesus Sanchez was the only member of that top tier who seemed to be on the block, and indeed it was Sanchez who was dealt along with Ryne Stanek to the Marlins in exchange for Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson.
  • Meanwhile, Stanek’s erstwhile role as an opener factored into the Rays’ decision to trade the right-hander.  Interestingly, Topkin writes that the Rays “shed the uncertainty of his opener-influenced arbitration case in 2021,” which promises to be a fascinating test case for how an arbiter could put a financial precedent on a new role within the game.  As Topkin notes, Stanek has been much better as an opener (2.71 ERA in 83 innings) than in a normal relief role (4.73 ERA in 59 innings).
  • The Brewers believe they might have a hidden gem in trade deadline acquisition Ray Black, as president of baseball operations David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Black has “as good…stuff as any reliever in the game.”  Black had only a 6.04 ERA over 25 1/3 career Major League innings as a member of the Giants, due in part to five homers allowed in that brief stint.  However, he also struck out 38 batters with his blazing fastball, and also posted a 3.70 ERA, 2.83 K/BB rate, and 16.8 K/9 over 153 1/3 career frames in the minors.  Between that live arm and those strikeout totals, Stearns thinks Black can blossom in Milwaukee, and pointed to a relatively healthy season for Black in 2019 as a positive development after multiple years shortened by injuries.  “The most important thing for him is keeping him on the field….He has changed some of his training regimens over the last year, and that seems to have helped. We’re hoping and optimistic that we can help keep him healthy,” Stearns said.
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