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Mets Considering Creative Approach To 5th Starter Spot

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The Mets are at least pondering a less-than-standard approach to filling their fifth starter’s spot, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s possible that neither Steven Matz nor Michael Wacha will simply win the job in camp.

[RELATED: Camp Battles: Mets Rotation]

Other organizations have already acted effectively upon the fundamental premise. The Mets would shed typical forms in favor of a flexible arrangement that maximizes the abilities of the players on hand.

It’s certainly an intriguing concept, at least in some of its forms. There are several possibilities, per Sherman: Matz and Wacha could essentially tag in and out of the rotation depending upon matchups. The team might also utilize an opener. While the premise isn’t specifically contemplated in Sherman’s piece, it stands to reason that those two starters could also be utilized in a piggyback arrangement at times.

This all obviously depends upon health. Most contending organizations strive to have more arms available than is needed on paper, since it’s rare that all can be called upon at a given time. In this case, especially, that’s a major factor since both Matz and Wacha have dealt with fairly significant health limitations in recent years.

As Sherman explains, there are other factors to be considered as well. It’s tempting to imagine a game opened by Seth Lugo, carried by multi-inning stints from Matz and/or Wacha, and then closed down by power relievers Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Edwin Diaz. But the realities of day-to-day pitching management likely won’t allow such a clean progression on a regular basis. And the fact is, for all their individual and collective upside, every one of those hurlers enters the season with a significant downside scenario.

All of that isn’t to say this concept isn’t worth exploring. To the contrary, this seems like a logical application of shifts we’ve witnessed in recent years. Perhaps some starters shouldn’t be tasked with quite so many innings, while some relievers can handle more. The Mets’ own array of talent does seem to suit an adaptable methodology.

Mixing and matching and generally acting flexibly can have obvious advantages. There’ll also be some potential pitfalls to be navigated. Taken as a whole, the idea only makes the already interesting Mets more fun to watch.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Mets Likely Won’t Trade Syndergaard, Matz Unless “Overwhelmed” By Offer

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While it is becoming increasingly likely that the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, the team won’t be going into a full fire sale.  Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are two of the names that aren’t likely to be going anywhere before the July 31st deadline, as Mike Puma of the New York Post hears from an industry source that the Mets “would likely have to be overwhelmed by a trade proposal” to deal Syndergaard or Matz.

The Mets’ reluctance to move Syndergaard is well-known, despite the fact that at least three teams (the Brewers, Astros and Padres) have shown interest already, and several more would surely join the bidding if the man they call Thor was actually shopped.  We haven’t heard much about Matz as a trade candidate this summer, and it’s interesting that he is seemingly in the same boat as the more heralded Syndergaard, though New York would have largely the same reasons to want to keep either pitcher.

Matz has a 4.89 ERA, 2.69 K/BB rate, 46.9% grounder rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 81 innings this season.  Despite some pretty decent overall advanced metrics, Matz has been once again undone by problems with the home run ball.  After posting a 1.5 HR/9 in 2017-18, that number jumped even higher to a full 2.0 HR/9 in 2019, as 20.9% of all fly balls allowed by Matz have left the yard.  Matz’s struggles peaked in June, as a string of poor outings led the Mets to remove him from the rotation, though he is slated to start on July 17 against the Twins.

Now in his fourth season as a regular, Matz has shown some flashes of brilliance for the Mets but injuries and his propensity for the home run ball have limited his value.  After generating 2.4 fWAR in his 2016 rookie season, he has been little more than a replacement-level pitcher since, with 1.3 total fWAR over his next 301 2/3 innings.  Matz hasn’t approached the type of ace-level ability Syndergaard has shown at his peak, though like Syndergaard, the Mets would arguably be selling low on Matz if they dealt him now.

Matz is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, earning $2.625MM for the season and thus in line for cost-effective salaries in both 2020 and 2021 even if Matz has a breakout next year.  Syndergaard also has two-plus years of team control remaining, though at a higher price (he is earning $6MM in 2019).  Between the control and the lack of payroll strain caused by either hurler, the Mets don’t have any particular reason to make a trade, especially since neither is pitching particularly well.

Mets Notes: Matz, Ramos, Allan

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Steven Matz has been a staple in the Mets’ rotation (when healthy) since his 2015 debut, but he’s recently been shifted to the bullpen in a move that manager Mickey Callaway hasn’t fully termed as temporary, Zach Braziller of the New York Post writes. While Callaway called Matz one of the team’s top five starters, the manager also declined to definitively state that Matz will return to the rotation. “I expect that after the All-Star break [he’ll be back in the rotation],” said Callaway, “but we’ll adjust if we need to.” That statement came prior to Matz’s bullpen debut last night — a scoreless outing. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes that after the game, Callaway “hesitated multiple times” when asked about Matz’s return to the rotation and did indicate that he could stay in the ’pen for a longer period of time. Matz himself spoke to DiComo and other reporters about the different feel of relief pitching and took a team-first approach, stating that he’s willing to pitch in any role the club feels will help win games.

More Mets talk…

  • SNY’s John Harper opines that trading Wilson Ramos should be a priority for the Mets at the deadline, citing defensive issues that have led multiple pitchers to prefer throwing to Tomas Nido. Both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard look like they’ll be paired with Nido moving forward, Harper writes. He quotes one unnamed official who suggests that part of Syndergaard’s 2019 struggles have come from pitching up in the zone more, some of which could be tied to Ramos’ struggles to block pitches in the dirt following a significant knee surgery late in his Nationals tenure. There’s no clear indication in the report that New York will actually look to jettison Ramos, who is an objectively better hitter than Nido even in a down season. Ramos has slashed .275/.348/.414 with nine homers while the 25-year-old Nido has displayed a continued inability to get on base. In 180 career plate appearances, Nido is a .209/.233/.308 hitter, including a .263 OBP in 80 trips to the plate in 2019. Defensive prowess aside, a .233 OBP is a tough sell even for a backup. Nido has walked only six times in his career despite primarily hitting eighth ahead of the pitcher.
  • The Mets reached a deal last week with their third round pick, highly-touted high school right-hander Matthew Allan.  The signing was the culmination of a bold gambit from the club’s front office, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required) details how carving out the bonus pool space to meet Allan’s high asking price led to the Mets “manipulating our entire draft” to accommodate Allan, as GM Brodie Van Wagenen put it.  After the third round, the Mets spent the rest of their picks in rounds 4-10 on college seniors, who had less negotiating leverage and thus signed for bonuses of $20K or less.  A strong endorsement from scout Jon Updike also gave the Mets confidence that Allan would ultimately sign and begin his pro career, rather than attend college.

Mets Place Steven Matz On 10-Day IL

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The Mets announced today that lefty Steven Matz is headed to the 10-day injured list with radial nerve discomfort. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by first baseman Dominic Smith.

While Matz had hoped to avoid a stint on the shelf, it seems he’s not bouncing back quite quickly enough. The Mets already placed Jason Vargas on the IL, replacing him for the time being with just-added righty Wilmer Font.

Fortunately, the outlook is still favorable. Matz is expected to be ready to make a start on Thursday, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among those to tweet. As for Smith, it seems that this’ll only represent a brief return to the majors unless an injury occurs before his roster spot is needed.

Mets Place Jason Vargas On Injured List

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Mets manager Mickey Callaway announced today that lefty Jason Vargas is headed to the 10-day injured list, as Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to cover on Twitter. He left his most recent start with a hamstring injury and is evidently going to need some time to recover.

Fortunately for the New York organization, there’s still hope of a quicker bounce back for fellow southpaw starter Steven Matz, who isn’t joining Vargas on the IL. Matz is being treated for nerve irritation in his elbow, but it’s obviously not seen as a terribly worrisome issue.

The Mets will need a fill-in starter for Wednesday, at least, but haven’t yet settled on a name. Reliever Corey Oswalt was called up to fill the open roster spot; he’s one of several long-man/spot-start candidates who could be tasked with the open start, individually or in tandem.

More important than the mid-week outing is the full-season picture for the Mets staff. The club has already come under some scrutiny for sticking with Vargas to this point. While he has certainly turned in a more promising run of outings more recently, he’s a rather limited option at 36 years of age.

A significant acquisition isn’t likely at this point of the year, but the Mets could use this time to look at internal alternatives or potential piggyback candidates to pair with Vargas once he’s activated. It’s not yet clear how long Vargas is expected to be sidelined.

NL Injury Notes: Cain, Matz, Vargas, Taylor

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X-rays were negative on Lorenzo Cain’s left hand after the Brewers outfielder was hit by a Tim Peterson pitch during the sixth inning of today’s 3-2 win over the Mets.  Cain was removed from the game after his HBP, though told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that he is hopeful of playing on Tuesday, when Milwaukee hosts the Nationals.  Cain has hit .259/.316/.406 through 158 plate appearances this season, though he has made up for that slow start at the plate with his usual excellent center field defense.  It doesn’t seem like this injury will require a DL stint or perhaps even an absence whatsoever, though it’s still worth monitoring, as the Brewers can ill-afford to lose any of their stars amidst a tightly-contested NL Central race.

More from around the National League…

  • The Mets have sent Steven Matz back to New York for tests on his left forearm, manager Mickey Callaway told the New York Post’s Mike Puma and other reporters.  As per Callaway, Matz has a “nerve issue” and has been dealing with a sore forearm “for about two weeks now.”  Matz hasn’t been ruled out of his next scheduled start on Wednesday, though one would think the Mets would sit him out simply as a precautionary measure, given the inherent seriousness of forearm problems.  (Callaway noted that Matz’s current injury isn’t related to the elbow procedure he underwent in 2017.)  Losing Matz to the IL would be a blow to a New York rotation that has struggled this season, and also just generally been lacking in quality results.  Matz has posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.56 K/BB rate, and 8.2 K/9 over 35 innings, and his numbers would look better apart from a singularly disastrous outing on April 16 against the Phillies that saw him allow six earned runs without recording an out.
  • In more unfortunate injury news for the Mets, Jason Vargas left today’s game due to tightness in his left hamstring.  As Puma notes, Vargas’ spot in the rotation wouldn’t necessarily need to be filled immediately, as the Mets have enough upcoming off-days that a fifth starter isn’t required until May 18.  Vargas allowed three runs in four innings today to give him a 5.92 ERA over 24 1/3 frames in what has been a rough beginning for the veteran southpaw.
  • The Nationals have yet to receive MRI results on Michael A. Taylor after the outfielder suffered a jammed wrist on Saturday.  (MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report the news.)  Taylor already missed some time at the start of the season due to a left knee and hip sprain, and he has yet to get on track — the outfielder has a meager .111/.226/.148 slash line over 32 plate appearances.  Despite Taylor’s struggles, Washington can hardly afford to lose any more players to the IL at this point, given that Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Adams are all currently sidelined.  Rendon, at least, is expected to return on Tuesday.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

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Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Syndergaard, Rangers, Minor, Orioles

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Star right-hander Noah Syndergaard has drawn trade interest this offseason, but if the Mets do deal him, it’s not going to be for a package of prospects, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Rather, because the Mets aim to contend in 2019, they’d need to make a trade that improves their roster both now and in the future, according to Rosenthal. Moving Syndergaard would likely cause significant damage to the Mets’ rotation heading into 2019, though, so they’d almost have to sign a replacement in free agency, Rosenthal notes. To this point, the Mets have been “very engaged in the marketplace,” a representative for a free-agent starter tells Rosenthal.

Syndergaard’s not the only established Mets hurler whose future is in question, per Rosenthal, who adds that all of their starters are generating interest. Syndergaard’s fellow ace, National League Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, isn’t going anywhere, sources tell Rosenthal. The rest of the Mets’ rotation – which consists of Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas –  isn’t as impressive, though Wheeler and Matz are appealing. Wheeler, healthy for the first time since 2014, is coming off a terrific season, but he only has a year of control remaining; Matz is an injury-prone lefty who was a mixed bag in 2018, but he’s still just 27 and has three years of control left; Vargas, meanwhile, endured a disastrous 2018, and with a guaranteed $10MM left on his contract, the Mets may be fortunate to find a taker for him. However, as with Syndergaard, the Mets’ goal in giving up any of Wheeler, Matz or Vargas would be to better themselves in the near and long term, Rosenthal writes.

More rumblings from Rosenthal…

  • Even though the Rangers’ rotation is perilously thin, the rebuilding club would likely trade its top starter, left-hander Mike Minor, for the right offer, Rosenthal suggests. Minor’s drawing interest on the heels of his first season in Texas, which signed him to a three-year, $28MM guarantee last December. When he joined the Rangers, Minor was coming off an excellent season as a full-time reliever for the Royals, but he returned to a starting role in 2018 and posted a 4.18 ERA/4.43 FIP with 7.57 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 over 157 innings (28 starts). Minor has an affordable $19MM left on his contract, though his 10-team no-trade clause could block some prospective suitors from acquiring him.
  • After a drawn-out search, the Orioles finally named a general manager, Mike Elias, whom they hired Friday. Elias is now seeking a manager for the Orioles, and it’s “more likely” he’ll hire an experienced skipper than a neophyte, Rosenthal relays. However, Elias isn’t necessarily aiming to make a high-profile hire, per Rosenthal, who writes that the O’s next manager could be a “caretaker.”

Injury Notes: Deal Medicals, Matz, Devenski, Nicasio, Kinsler

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WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford took an interesting look at changes that have been made to the process of assessing health in trades. The 2016 Drew Pomeranz swap, and more particularly the fallout from it, sparked the development of a much more robust system for documenting and assessing medical matters. While thee’s obviously an advantage in enhancing the scrutiny, it also leads to what Bradford calls a “tremendously tedious process.”

Here’s the latest on some injury situations around the league:

  • The Mets announced today that they have placed lefty Steven Matz on the 10-day disabled list with a flexor pronator strain. That sounds a bit frightening, though indications are that it’s not a terribly concerning injury situation. Still, any arm troubles are somewhat more worrisome for a young hurler that has experienced so many already since his 2015 debut. Matz, who will be replaced on the active roster by right-hander Corey Oswalt, joins Phillip Evans on the shelf. The 25-year-old infielder suffered a non-displaced fracture of his tibia, though it is perhaps still possible he’ll be able to return to action this season.
  • The Astros have placed reliever Chris Devenski on the 10-day disabled list with left hamstring tightness, the club announced. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by southpaw Cionel Perez. Devenski had been cruising through another dominant season before he imploded very recently. Devenski had a 1.32 ERA as of July 1st, but has since allowed 13 earned runs in seven outings — including eight without recording an out over his past two appearances. Clearly, something isn’t quite right, so the ’Stros will give him a chance to get back to full health before the stretch run.
  • Also heading to the DL is Mariners righty Juan Nicasio, the team announced. He’ll be replaced by reliever Chasen Bradford. Knee problems have been an issue for the 31-year-old Nicasio this year. He’s now sporting a 6.00 ERA through 42 frames on the season, though he’s also carrying a sparkling 53:5 K/BB ratio.
  • Just-acquired Red Sox second baseman Ian Kinsler is likewise set to hit the DL after leaving tonight’s game with a tight hamstring, Bradford tweets. The seriousness isn’t yet apparent, but it doesn’t appear to be a major source of concern. Kinsler will be replaced for the time being by infielder Tony Renda.
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