Mets Likely Won’t Trade Syndergaard, Matz Unless “Overwhelmed” By Offer
While it is becoming increasingly likely that the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, the team won’t be going into a full fire sale. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are two of the names that aren’t likely to be going anywhere before the July 31st deadline, as Mike Puma of the New York Post hears from an industry source that the Mets “would likely have to be overwhelmed by a trade proposal” to deal Syndergaard or Matz.
The Mets’ reluctance to move Syndergaard is well-known, despite the fact that at least three teams (the Brewers, Astros and Padres) have shown interest already, and several more would surely join the bidding if the man they call Thor was actually shopped. We haven’t heard much about Matz as a trade candidate this summer, and it’s interesting that he is seemingly in the same boat as the more heralded Syndergaard, though New York would have largely the same reasons to want to keep either pitcher.
Matz has a 4.89 ERA, 2.69 K/BB rate, 46.9% grounder rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 81 innings this season. Despite some pretty decent overall advanced metrics, Matz has been once again undone by problems with the home run ball. After posting a 1.5 HR/9 in 2017-18, that number jumped even higher to a full 2.0 HR/9 in 2019, as 20.9% of all fly balls allowed by Matz have left the yard. Matz’s struggles peaked in June, as a string of poor outings led the Mets to remove him from the rotation, though he is slated to start on July 17 against the Twins.
Now in his fourth season as a regular, Matz has shown some flashes of brilliance for the Mets but injuries and his propensity for the home run ball have limited his value. After generating 2.4 fWAR in his 2016 rookie season, he has been little more than a replacement-level pitcher since, with 1.3 total fWAR over his next 301 2/3 innings. Matz hasn’t approached the type of ace-level ability Syndergaard has shown at his peak, though like Syndergaard, the Mets would arguably be selling low on Matz if they dealt him now.
Matz is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, earning $2.625MM for the season and thus in line for cost-effective salaries in both 2020 and 2021 even if Matz has a breakout next year. Syndergaard also has two-plus years of team control remaining, though at a higher price (he is earning $6MM in 2019). Between the control and the lack of payroll strain caused by either hurler, the Mets don’t have any particular reason to make a trade, especially since neither is pitching particularly well.
Mets Notes: Matz, Ramos, Allan
Steven Matz has been a staple in the Mets’ rotation (when healthy) since his 2015 debut, but he’s recently been shifted to the bullpen in a move that manager Mickey Callaway hasn’t fully termed as temporary, Zach Braziller of the New York Post writes. While Callaway called Matz one of the team’s top five starters, the manager also declined to definitively state that Matz will return to the rotation. “I expect that after the All-Star break [he’ll be back in the rotation],” said Callaway, “but we’ll adjust if we need to.” That statement came prior to Matz’s bullpen debut last night — a scoreless outing. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes that after the game, Callaway “hesitated multiple times” when asked about Matz’s return to the rotation and did indicate that he could stay in the ‘pen for a longer period of time. Matz himself spoke to DiComo and other reporters about the different feel of relief pitching and took a team-first approach, stating that he’s willing to pitch in any role the club feels will help win games.
More Mets talk…
- SNY’s John Harper opines that trading Wilson Ramos should be a priority for the Mets at the deadline, citing defensive issues that have led multiple pitchers to prefer throwing to Tomas Nido. Both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard look like they’ll be paired with Nido moving forward, Harper writes. He quotes one unnamed official who suggests that part of Syndergaard’s 2019 struggles have come from pitching up in the zone more, some of which could be tied to Ramos’ struggles to block pitches in the dirt following a significant knee surgery late in his Nationals tenure. There’s no clear indication in the report that New York will actually look to jettison Ramos, who is an objectively better hitter than Nido even in a down season. Ramos has slashed .275/.348/.414 with nine homers while the 25-year-old Nido has displayed a continued inability to get on base. In 180 career plate appearances, Nido is a .209/.233/.308 hitter, including a .263 OBP in 80 trips to the plate in 2019. Defensive prowess aside, a .233 OBP is a tough sell even for a backup. Nido has walked only six times in his career despite primarily hitting eighth ahead of the pitcher.
- The Mets reached a deal last week with their third round pick, highly-touted high school right-hander Matthew Allan. The signing was the culmination of a bold gambit from the club’s front office, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required) details how carving out the bonus pool space to meet Allan’s high asking price led to the Mets “manipulating our entire draft” to accommodate Allan, as GM Brodie Van Wagenen put it. After the third round, the Mets spent the rest of their picks in rounds 4-10 on college seniors, who had less negotiating leverage and thus signed for bonuses of $20K or less. A strong endorsement from scout Jon Updike also gave the Mets confidence that Allan would ultimately sign and begin his pro career, rather than attend college.
Mets Place Steven Matz On 10-Day IL
The Mets announced today that lefty Steven Matz is headed to the 10-day injured list with radial nerve discomfort. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by first baseman Dominic Smith.
While Matz had hoped to avoid a stint on the shelf, it seems he’s not bouncing back quite quickly enough. The Mets already placed Jason Vargas on the IL, replacing him for the time being with just-added righty Wilmer Font.
Fortunately, the outlook is still favorable. Matz is expected to be ready to make a start on Thursday, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among those to tweet. As for Smith, it seems that this’ll only represent a brief return to the majors unless an injury occurs before his roster spot is needed.
Mets Place Jason Vargas On Injured List
Mets manager Mickey Callaway announced today that lefty Jason Vargas is headed to the 10-day injured list, as Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to cover on Twitter. He left his most recent start with a hamstring injury and is evidently going to need some time to recover.
Fortunately for the New York organization, there’s still hope of a quicker bounce back for fellow southpaw starter Steven Matz, who isn’t joining Vargas on the IL. Matz is being treated for nerve irritation in his elbow, but it’s obviously not seen as a terribly worrisome issue.
The Mets will need a fill-in starter for Wednesday, at least, but haven’t yet settled on a name. Reliever Corey Oswalt was called up to fill the open roster spot; he’s one of several long-man/spot-start candidates who could be tasked with the open start, individually or in tandem.
More important than the mid-week outing is the full-season picture for the Mets staff. The club has already come under some scrutiny for sticking with Vargas to this point. While he has certainly turned in a more promising run of outings more recently, he’s a rather limited option at 36 years of age.
A significant acquisition isn’t likely at this point of the year, but the Mets could use this time to look at internal alternatives or potential piggyback candidates to pair with Vargas once he’s activated. It’s not yet clear how long Vargas is expected to be sidelined.
NL Injury Notes: Cain, Matz, Vargas, Taylor
X-rays were negative on Lorenzo Cain‘s left hand after the Brewers outfielder was hit by a Tim Peterson pitch during the sixth inning of today’s 3-2 win over the Mets. Cain was removed from the game after his HBP, though told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that he is hopeful of playing on Tuesday, when Milwaukee hosts the Nationals. Cain has hit .259/.316/.406 through 158 plate appearances this season, though he has made up for that slow start at the plate with his usual excellent center field defense. It doesn’t seem like this injury will require a DL stint or perhaps even an absence whatsoever, though it’s still worth monitoring, as the Brewers can ill-afford to lose any of their stars amidst a tightly-contested NL Central race.
More from around the National League…
- The Mets have sent Steven Matz back to New York for tests on his left forearm, manager Mickey Callaway told the New York Post’s Mike Puma and other reporters. As per Callaway, Matz has a “nerve issue” and has been dealing with a sore forearm “for about two weeks now.” Matz hasn’t been ruled out of his next scheduled start on Wednesday, though one would think the Mets would sit him out simply as a precautionary measure, given the inherent seriousness of forearm problems. (Callaway noted that Matz’s current injury isn’t related to the elbow procedure he underwent in 2017.) Losing Matz to the IL would be a blow to a New York rotation that has struggled this season, and also just generally been lacking in quality results. Matz has posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.56 K/BB rate, and 8.2 K/9 over 35 innings, and his numbers would look better apart from a singularly disastrous outing on April 16 against the Phillies that saw him allow six earned runs without recording an out.
- In more unfortunate injury news for the Mets, Jason Vargas left today’s game due to tightness in his left hamstring. As Puma notes, Vargas’ spot in the rotation wouldn’t necessarily need to be filled immediately, as the Mets have enough upcoming off-days that a fifth starter isn’t required until May 18. Vargas allowed three runs in four innings today to give him a 5.92 ERA over 24 1/3 frames in what has been a rough beginning for the veteran southpaw.
- The Nationals have yet to receive MRI results on Michael A. Taylor after the outfielder suffered a jammed wrist on Saturday. (MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report the news.) Taylor already missed some time at the start of the season due to a left knee and hip sprain, and he has yet to get on track — the outfielder has a meager .111/.226/.148 slash line over 32 plate appearances. Despite Taylor’s struggles, Washington can hardly afford to lose any more players to the IL at this point, given that Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Adams are all currently sidelined. Rendon, at least, is expected to return on Tuesday.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
- The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
- The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
- The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
- The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.
Earlier Updates
Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Syndergaard, Rangers, Minor, Orioles
Star right-hander Noah Syndergaard has drawn trade interest this offseason, but if the Mets do deal him, it’s not going to be for a package of prospects, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Rather, because the Mets aim to contend in 2019, they’d need to make a trade that improves their roster both now and in the future, according to Rosenthal. Moving Syndergaard would likely cause significant damage to the Mets’ rotation heading into 2019, though, so they’d almost have to sign a replacement in free agency, Rosenthal notes. To this point, the Mets have been “very engaged in the marketplace,” a representative for a free-agent starter tells Rosenthal.
Syndergaard’s not the only established Mets hurler whose future is in question, per Rosenthal, who adds that all of their starters are generating interest. Syndergaard’s fellow ace, National League Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, isn’t going anywhere, sources tell Rosenthal. The rest of the Mets’ rotation – which consists of Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas – isn’t as impressive, though Wheeler and Matz are appealing. Wheeler, healthy for the first time since 2014, is coming off a terrific season, but he only has a year of control remaining; Matz is an injury-prone lefty who was a mixed bag in 2018, but he’s still just 27 and has three years of control left; Vargas, meanwhile, endured a disastrous 2018, and with a guaranteed $10MM left on his contract, the Mets may be fortunate to find a taker for him. However, as with Syndergaard, the Mets’ goal in giving up any of Wheeler, Matz or Vargas would be to better themselves in the near and long term, Rosenthal writes.
More rumblings from Rosenthal…
- Even though the Rangers’ rotation is perilously thin, the rebuilding club would likely trade its top starter, left-hander Mike Minor, for the right offer, Rosenthal suggests. Minor’s drawing interest on the heels of his first season in Texas, which signed him to a three-year, $28MM guarantee last December. When he joined the Rangers, Minor was coming off an excellent season as a full-time reliever for the Royals, but he returned to a starting role in 2018 and posted a 4.18 ERA/4.43 FIP with 7.57 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 over 157 innings (28 starts). Minor has an affordable $19MM left on his contract, though his 10-team no-trade clause could block some prospective suitors from acquiring him.
- After a drawn-out search, the Orioles finally named a general manager, Mike Elias, whom they hired Friday. Elias is now seeking a manager for the Orioles, and it’s “more likely” he’ll hire an experienced skipper than a neophyte, Rosenthal relays. However, Elias isn’t necessarily aiming to make a high-profile hire, per Rosenthal, who writes that the O’s next manager could be a “caretaker.”
Injury Notes: Deal Medicals, Matz, Devenski, Nicasio, Kinsler
WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford took an interesting look at changes that have been made to the process of assessing health in trades. The 2016 Drew Pomeranz swap, and more particularly the fallout from it, sparked the development of a much more robust system for documenting and assessing medical matters. While thee’s obviously an advantage in enhancing the scrutiny, it also leads to what Bradford calls a “tremendously tedious process.”
Here’s the latest on some injury situations around the league:
- The Mets announced today that they have placed lefty Steven Matz on the 10-day disabled list with a flexor pronator strain. That sounds a bit frightening, though indications are that it’s not a terribly concerning injury situation. Still, any arm troubles are somewhat more worrisome for a young hurler that has experienced so many already since his 2015 debut. Matz, who will be replaced on the active roster by right-hander Corey Oswalt, joins Phillip Evans on the shelf. The 25-year-old infielder suffered a non-displaced fracture of his tibia, though it is perhaps still possible he’ll be able to return to action this season.
- The Astros have placed reliever Chris Devenski on the 10-day disabled list with left hamstring tightness, the club announced. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by southpaw Cionel Perez. Devenski had been cruising through another dominant season before he imploded very recently. Devenski had a 1.32 ERA as of July 1st, but has since allowed 13 earned runs in seven outings — including eight without recording an out over his past two appearances. Clearly, something isn’t quite right, so the ‘Stros will give him a chance to get back to full health before the stretch run.
- Also heading to the DL is Mariners righty Juan Nicasio, the team announced. He’ll be replaced by reliever Chasen Bradford. Knee problems have been an issue for the 31-year-old Nicasio this year. He’s now sporting a 6.00 ERA through 42 frames on the season, though he’s also carrying a sparkling 53:5 K/BB ratio.
- Just-acquired Red Sox second baseman Ian Kinsler is likewise set to hit the DL after leaving tonight’s game with a tight hamstring, Bradford tweets. The seriousness isn’t yet apparent, but it doesn’t appear to be a major source of concern. Kinsler will be replaced for the time being by infielder Tony Renda.
Mets Notes: 2019 Plans, Matz, General Manager
Despite a disastrous 2018 season in which only four teams have produced inferior records, the Mets aren’t planning to embark on any kind of rebuild, assistant GM John Ricco tells reporters (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Ricco suggests that while the next two months “won’t be the be-all and end-all,” they’ll help to evaluate players such as Jeff McNeil as the team looks to determine its areas of need in the offseason — most specifically on the position-player side of the equation. Ricco adds that he believes Dominic Smith will be a part of the team moving forward, stating that he’s “getting more experience” in left field. While the Mets will be facing a significant number of holes in the offseason and myriad health uncertainties, Ricco states plainly: “We’re going to try to be competitive and be a playoff team next year.”
More on the Mets…
- DiComo also writes in a full column that while an MRI ruled out any structural damage in Steven Matz‘s forearm and elbow, the left-hander is nonetheless expected to require a stint on the 10-day disabled list due to a “mild flexor-pronator strain.” It doesn’t appear that the team currently believes Matz will face an extended absence, with both Ricco and manager Mickey Callaway suggesting that a DL placement would be a “conservative” approach to the injury. If and when Matz does land on the disabled list, DiComo notes that right-hander Corey Oswalt is the likeliest candidate to replace him.
- Ricco spoke with the New York Post’s Kevin Kernan about perhaps the most critical component to his team’s 2019 success: injury prevention. “A lot of this stuff is systemic,” Ricco acknowledged, emphasizing a need to change the mindsets, routines and habits of his players as well as the team’s internal medical processes. A focus on younger players isn’t necessarily a cure-all for the Mets’ injury woes, he noted, as there’s been no shortage of younger players incurring notable injuries troubles (e.g. Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto). As Kernan writes, while Mickey Callaway has had some hiccups in his first exposure to managing at the MLB level, he’s also been vocal about some of the team’s internal organizational deficiencies — a trait which Ricco calls “one of the reasons we brought him in.”
- Following up a recent report from colleague Buster Olney, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington is increasingly mentioned as a “likely top candidate” for the Mets’ GM vacancy. Crasnick adds that Diamondbacks assistant GM Jared Porter, also a former high-ranking Red Sox executive, is also “generating some buzz” with regard to that opening. Currently, the Mets have the trio of Ricco and special assistants Omar Minaya and J.P. Ricciardi heading up baseball operations in place of Sandy Alderson, who stepped away from the role to undergo treatment for a cancer relapse. That arrangement, however, is not permanent, though Ricco himself figures to be among the candidates to take the GM chair in Queens in the offseason.
Mets To Select Contract Of Bobby Wahl
The Mets will select the contract of reliever Bobby Wahl, assistant GM John Ricco said today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He’s one of the two players acquired in the pre-deadline swap that sent out veteran closer Jeurys Familia.
Wahl, a hard-throwing righty, has continued to rack up the strikeouts at Triple-A in four appearances since coming over from the Oakland organization. On the year, he has retired 73 batters on strikes while issuing 19 walks in 45 frames at the highest level of the minors. In that span, he has permitted just eleven earned runs on a meager twenty base hits.
Of course, Wahl has shown an interesting power arm in the past, and that did not prevent him from clearing waivers after a brief MLB debut in 2017. If the A’s were convinced he is a notable near-term bullpen asset, perhaps they would not have dealt him for the rental rights to Familia. That said, Wahl’s campaign last year was cut short by injury, which explains why he went unclaimed, and he has certainly bounced back with vigor in 2018. Perhaps he’ll provide a glimmer of hope for the Mets down the stretch.
In other news, the Mets are slated to activate third baseman Todd Frazier, per MLB.com’s Todd Frazier (via Twitter). He could perhaps become an August trade candidate, though there has been no rumor of trade talks to this point.
One active roster spot could be opened by sending starter Steven Matz to the DL. While Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that Matz was cleared of structural concerns after undergoing an MRI, Mike Puma of the New York post suggests on Twitter that the southpaw may still hit the shelf. As Tim Healey of Newsday notes in a tweet, though, the club is still listing Matz as a probable starter this weekend.