Jose De Leon To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The Rays have lost a second highly touted pitching prospect to a torn ulnar collateral ligament, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that right-hander Jose De Leon is headed for Tommy John surgery (Twitter link). Fellow right-hander Brent Honeywell, widely regarded as Tampa Bay’s best all-around prospect, underwent Tommy John earlier this spring.
Acquired last offseason in a straight-up swap for infielder Logan Forsythe, De Leon was thought to be a near-MLB-ready asset at the time of the trade. However, De Leon battled a flexor strain and tendinitis in his elbow for much of the 2017 season and was ultimately limited to just 41 innings on the season as a whole — 38 1/3 frames in Triple-A plus another 2 2/3 innings at the big league level. Now, with today’s news, the Rays won’t have the opportunity to reap much benefit from that trade until 2019, at the earliest.
While the Rays have an enviable stock of MLB-caliber arms on the precipice of breaking into the Majors, there’s no question that the team’s pitching depth has taken a massive hit in recent weeks. The Rays felt comfortable enough with their depth to trade righty Jake Odorizzi to the Twins in a move that looks to have been largely motivated by finances, and in the three brief weeks since that trade they’ve lost both Honeywell and De Leon — effectively removing three rotation candidates from their roster in under a month’s time.
Tampa Bay will open the season with Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Blake Snell and Jake Faria in a four-man rotation, with Matt Andriese reportedly likely to jump in as a fifth starter after a few weeks. (The early schedule affords enough off days that Andriese can be used as a multi-inning reliever in the interim.) If Faria can build off an impressive rookie season (3.43 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 in 86 2/3 innings) and Snell can continue at the pace he showed in a very strong second half of the 2017 season (3.49 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9), then the Rays still boast a solid mix of starters even with the recent rash of injuries.
Beyond that quintet, the Rays still have lefties Anthony Banda and Ryan Yarbrough in addition to righty Yonny Chirinos waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Nonetheless, Tampa Bay is considerably less equipped to handle a major injury (or injuries) in the rotation now than it was at the onset of Spring Training. The organization no doubt has Double-A arms that can move up to step into the Triple-A vacancies, though it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pursue some additional veteran depth from outside the organization after losing both De Leon and Honeywell for the year.
Rays Release Evan Scribner
The Rays have released right-hander Evan Scribner, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The move comes just about a month since Scribner signed on with Tampa Bay.
Scribner, a 32-year-old reliever, had made just one appearance this spring, throwing a clean frame. Evidently, the Rays did not like what they saw or the sides both decided to go their separate ways.
It seems that Scribner will need to earn his way back to the majors with another organization. He has seen at least some MLB time in each of the past seven seasons, working to a 4.15 ERA and 8.3 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9 in 169 frames. Remarkably, he handed out just six walks in his 93 most recent major-league innings. Unfortunately, injuries limited Scribner to just 33 2/3 innings at all levels over the past two seasons.
East Notes: Rays, Wright, Goodwin, Orioles
The Rays are preparing to utilize a four-man rotation for the entirety of the coming season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, with the expectation being that the club will load up the bullpen with multi-inning-capable arms. Topkin covers a wide range of possibilities for the relief corps and details the club’s thinking behind the unusual move. The plan is to utilize a string of relievers to work the fifth rotation spot, rather than designating a single pitcher to take that job. That approach seems designed both to take advantage of the organization’s options and to incorporate some analytical lessons on platoons and pitchers facing an order multiple times.
More from the east:
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post checks in on Mets third baseman David Wright, who is still plugging away in a comeback effort that seems unlikely to succeed. He says he wants to give it everything he can so that his “head can hit the pillow and I know I made every effort to play.” But that doesn’t mean it’s easy for the 33-year-old to be a part of a team that’s likely never to put him back on the field. “The mental part of coming in and knowing you bring nothing to the table as far as helping the team get ready for the season and helping the team win, for me, is the hardest part,” says Wright, “as hard as physical part of the rehab process.” Wright’s devastating combination of injuries is well-documented, of course. Remarkably, he was still capable of productive hitting when he briefly appeared on the field in 2015 and 2016, but Wright was only able to suit up for three High-A contests last year.
- The Nationals don’t have a particularly clear role for outfielder Brian Goodwin, but as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com writes, new skipper Davey Martinez intends to find ways to utilize Goodwin. The 27-year-old doesn’t exactly sound like he’s excited by the organization’s plans after he turned in a solid 2017 campaign. “I don’t think my role is defined, or ever has been since I’ve been in camp,” Goodwin said. “I come into camp and I feel like I’m trying to earn a spot, trying to find somewhere – a home, where I can play every day, start 162 games and play every day for somebody whether it’s here or anywhere.”
- Speaking of lefty hitting outfielders, the Orioles came into the offseason badly needing one. The club erred in its approach to filling that need, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com argues. Baltimore ended up drawing Colby Rasmus back out of retirement with a deal that could actually exceed the one that Jon Jay just signed with the Royals. The issue, says Connolly, is that Jay suits the O’s needs much more than does Rasmus — and also was the desired target of team leaders Adam Jones and Manny Machado. It’s an interesting look at the team’s decisionmaking process.
Braves Acquire Ryan Schimpf, Outright Josh Ravin
The Braves announced on Monday that they’ve acquired infielder Ryan Schimpf from the Rays in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, Atlanta placed right-hander Josh Ravin on outright waivers. He’s already cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Gwinnett, per the team.
Schimpf, 29, is perhaps the current poster boy for three-true-outcomes hitters, as 52.7 percent of his 527 career plate appearances have ended in either a home run (34), walk (69) or strikeout (175). Remarkably, his 34 career home runs are more than the 28 singles he’s amassed in the Majors. In all, he’s walked at a 13.1 percent clip in the big leagues and struck out in 33.2 percent of his trips to the plate. He’s a .195/.317/.492 hitter in those 527 PAs.
Setting aside Schimpf’s extraordinarily unique offensive stat line, he’ll bring to the Braves another option to slot in at the hot corner early in the year as Atlanta awaits the emergence of prospect Austin Riley. Schimpf has a couple of minor league options remaining, so he needn’t be exposed to waivers at the end of camp if the Braves don’t want to bring him north to open the season.
Presently, Johan Camargo figures to be the primary third baseman for manager Brian Snitker, though Camargo’s ultimate role seems likely to be one of a utility infielder. While the 24-year-old Camargo hit .299/.331/.452 last season, he did so with the aid of a gaudy .364 average on balls in play and just a 4.7 percent walk rate. Given his below-average hard-contact rate and above-average infield fly rate, Camargo looks exceedingly unlikely to support a BABIP near that level and, barring a significant improvement in his walk rate, will likely see his average and OBP come down by a fair margin in 2018.
In theory, Schimpf and Camargo could actually make an interesting platoon. While Camargo is a switch-hitter, he posted a putrid .254/.287/.349 slash against right-handed pitching last year but a terrific .403/.434/.694 slash against lefties. The same BABIP caveats that apply to Camargo’s overall season are even more true of his work against southpaws (.481 BABIP in 76 PAs), but he’s generally been a better hitter against lefties than righties throughout his minor league career.
Schimpf, meanwhile, has hit just .205 against righties but paired that with a .329 OBP and a .537 slugging percentage, giving him a stunning .303 isolated power mark against righties in his brief big league career. He’s also capable of playing second base, so he could hold down a bench spot and serve as a late-inning power option in addition to his work as a potential platoon partner for Camargo, if the Braves are so inclined.
As for the 30-year-old Ravin, he totaled just 16 2/3 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen in 2017 before being acquired by the Braves (whose new GM, Alex Anthopoulos, had previously been in the L.A. front office) in a minor offseason swap. Ravin struggled to a 6.48 ERA in that small sample, though he did punch out 19 hitters and average better than 96 mph on his heater in that time. His Triple-A work in 2017 was much better, as he logged a 4.33 ERA and averaged a hefty 14 strikeouts per nine innings, albeit against 4.8 walks per nine. Ravin’s career has been slowed in recent years by a 2016 car accident as well as an 80-game PED suspension that same year.
East Notes: Adams, JDM, Marlins, Eovaldi, Orioles
Matt Adams signed with the Nationals fairly early in the offseason knowing full well that regular at-bats were going to be difficult to come by, writes Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. Adams prioritized playing for a contending club with a good clubhouse culture — he consulted his friend Chris Heisey about the organization before signing — over holding out for an opportunity for an everyday or near-everyday role. Castillo speaks to Adams himself, manager Dave Martinez and hitting coach Kevin Long about the slugger’s role with the club and the value he can bring off the bench. The Nationals, it should be noted, are giving Adams some looks in the outfield once again this spring and could play him in left field from time to time in 2017 — as the Cardinals and Braves both did in 2017.
More from the game’s Eastern divisions…
- Red Sox designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez chats with Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald about his perceived defensive shortcomings in the outfield, explaining that his reputation as a defensive liability is frustrating. Martinez acknowledges that his glovework wasn’t at its best in 2016, when he admits to having become a bit timid around the outfield wall after breaking his elbow when crashing into the wall partway through the year. “…I got scared of running into walls because I didn’t want to get hurt again,” Martinez candidly admits. “… So balls off the wall, I just let it go and I got penalized for it.” The slugger adds that his foot injury significantly hampered his range in 2017, but he rejoined the Tigers as soon as possible as a means of getting his bat back into the lineup. Martinez, to his credit, had average to above-average ratings from both DRS and UZR from 2014-15, and he’s anxious to prove that he can still play an adequate outfield corner with better health.
- The Marlins aren’t yet certain if veteran infielder Martin Prado will be healthy enough to take the field come Opening Day, writes Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald. The team’s hope is that Prado will be able to play in some Grapefruit League games by the middle of this month, but there’s still no set timeline for when he’ll get into the lineup. If Prado isn’t ready for the opneer, it could pave the way for prospect Brian Anderson, who made his MLB debut late in the 2017 season, to get a look at the hot corner and prove that he’s capable of sticking at the big league level. The Marlins won’t push Anderson into that role if they don’t feel he’s ready, though skipper Don Mattingly had plenty of praise for Anderson’s work at third, his swing and his overall work ethic.
- Nathan Eovaldi‘s contract with the Rays contains $3.5MM worth of incentives based on starting and $2.375MM worth of relief-based incentives, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The organization maintains that it is “definitely” committed to using Eovaldi as a starter, per Topkin, and that’s the right-hander’s preference as well. “I definitely want to be a starter and hold it out throughout the entire year,” Eovaldi tells Topkin. That said, it stands to reason that if Eovaldi struggles in the rotation, a move to the ‘pen is a possibility — especially given Tampa Bay’s deep stock of upper-level arms in the minors. As Topkin notes, many have long wondered what the hard-throwing Eovaldi could do in a relief role, especially when looking at his career struggles facing a lineup for the third time (.673 opponent OPS first time through the order, .692 second time, .890 third time).
- The Orioles remain open to adding a third free-agent starter after signing Andrew Cashner and bringing Chris Tillman back, writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. They’re still checking in on everyone from Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn to former Oriole Jake Arrieta, he notes. That said, Kubatko adds that the O’s are heartened by the way their internal options have looked thus far, with Mike Wright, David Hess, Yefry Ramirez, and Rule 5 picks Nestor Cortes and Pedro Araujo all of interest to Baltimore decision-makers.
AL Notes: Orioles, Machado, Twins, Rays
It doesn’t appear Orioles general manager Dan Duquette is planning to initiate extension talks with contract-year shortstop Manny Machado. “I would never say never, but we’re going to be more focused on ’18 than beyond,” Duquette told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “I don’t really know what’s going to happen beyond that.” Machado, Duquette, manager Buck Showalter, center fielder Adam Jones and relievers Zach Britton and Brad Brach are all scheduled to become free agents after the season, leading Duquette to admit to Feinsand that 2018 will be the last hurrah for this particular Orioles core. If he stays the GM into 2019, Duquette hasn’t closed the door on spending in free agency next winter, but he also isn’t dismissing the idea of a rebuild. Regarding a potential teardown, Duquette offered: “There is some logic toward doing that, right? You get the premium picks in the Draft and they can become the core players for your next championship club. A lot of this is timing; it’s cyclical.”
More from the AL…
- The Twins are “unlikely” to sign any of the top remaining free agent starters – Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio hears (Twitter link). On paper, anyone from that group would bolster Minnesota’s rotation, which will go without injured No. 1 starter Ervin Santana to open the season, but the club hasn’t shown a willingness to meet their asking prices. Even without any of them on the books, the Twins are already on track to begin the year with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll (approximately $121.83MM).
- Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start the year in the Rays’ rotation, but as a two-time Tommy John surgery patient, he faces long odds of making an impact, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details. Only 31 other pitchers have made it back to the majors after undergoing a second Tommy John, which Eovaldi had as a Yankee in August 2016, while just 11 returned to start, per Topkin. That 11-man group (which Topkin lists) doesn’t offer a ton of hope, but Eovaldi is nonetheless banking on continuing as a starter. “I definitely want to be a starter and hold it out throughout the entire year,” he said. “As of now, we haven’t had any limitations, and we haven’t even talked about it.” The flamethrowing Eovaldi was a major league-caliber starter with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees from 2011-16, so it’s understandable that he and the Rays want to see him continue in that role. Although, his contract does include $2.375MM in relief incentives, Topkin notes.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Rays, Red Sox, Heyward, Int’l Prospects
The Pirates and Rays have faced criticism from fans and pundits for a lack of spending, plus they were two of the four teams cited in a grievance filed by the players’ union about the quartet’s use of revenue-sharing funds. ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, however, argues that the Bucs and Rays didn’t boast big payrolls even when they were in contention, and the larger issue that hurt Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in 2017 was a lack of production from homegrown talent. Neither club has done a good job of drafting and developing prospects in recent years, and the lack of a strong pipeline of minor league talent is deadly for any smaller-market franchise.
Here’s more from around the baseball world…
- The hiring of new manager Alex Cora as gave the Red Sox some insight into how the Astros (Cora’s former team) used analytics to help with in-game strategy, and it made the Sox realize that they were falling behind in the advanced statistics arms race, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. Boston’s analytics department is now up to 10 full-time employees (plus interns) after some offseason hirings, and the team has drastically overhauled its advance scouting and data-gathering methodology to better get information to Cora and the coaching staff.
- Jason Heyward‘s struggles since joining the Cubs have almost reached the point of historical oddity, as “this type of production drop during a player’s prime is nearly unprecedented, especially when injuries aren’t a factor,” The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes (subscription required). Heyward has just a .243/.315/.353 slash line over 1073 PA for Chicago, as opposed to the .268/.353/.431 he posted in 3429 PA with the Braves and Cardinals over his first six seasons. Sharma cites a few other players who went through similarly sudden early declines, and only former Dodgers and Expos outfielder/first baseman Ron Fairly was able to entirely rebound and again become a productive hitter. Still, Heyward has been working with new hitting coach Chili Davis and the Cubs are still hopeful that he can regain some of his old stroke.
- Major League Baseball recently held a showcase for some of the top international prospects who will become available when the 2018-19 international signing window opens on July 2. In a subscription-only piece, Baseball America’s Ben Badler (two links) has the breakdown of some of the pitchers who made a particular impression, with some of these young arms already linked to such teams as the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Phillies.
Rays Designate Ryan Schimpf
The Rays have designated infielder Ryan Schimpf for assignment (h/t Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The team needed his spot on the 40-man roster to make room for the recently-signed Carlos Gomez.
The 29-year-old Schimpf made his major league debut with the Padres in 2016, posting a .217/.336/.533 batting line across 330 plate appearances en route to 2.5 fWAR. However, he followed it up with an unfortunate .158/.284/.424 line with a 35.5% strikeout rate in 2017, which led him to a replacement-level campaign. Fangraphs.com described him as “the poster child for the fly ball revolution going too far”, noting that his first two MLB seasons rank second and third in fly ball rate among all player seasons dating back to 2002.
The Rays had only recently acquired the left-handed hitter back in December, shipping out minor leaguer Deion Tansel. While he could clear waivers, there are probably a number of other clubs who might be willing to take a chance on his power and walk rate. The Rockies, for example, are in need of a utility infielder after learning that Pat Valaika and Shawn O’Malley are expected to miss time.
The move seems even more curious considering Schimpf was projected to make the Rays’ opening day roster as a bench player. Instead, the team will likely rely on a mix of Joey Wendle and Daniel Robertson behind a starting infield mix that includes Brad Miller, C.J. Cron, Adeiny Hechavarria and Matt Duffy until Christian Arroyo and Willy Adames force their way onto the MLB scene.
Rays Sign Carlos Gomez
March 3rd: The Rays have made the signing official. Gomez’s incentives are based on games played, per the Associated Press. He’d rake in $100K each for 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 games.
February 21st: The Rays have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran outfielder Carlos Gomez, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). Gomez, a Boras Corporation client, receive a $4MM if he passes a physical, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). The deal also includes $500K in potential incentives and a $500K assignment bonus, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
If finalized, this pact would represent an interesting narrative shift after weeks of salary-paring moves from Tampa Bay. The organization just shipped away outfielder Steven Souza and starter Jake Odorizzi while designating left-handed-hitting slugger Corey Dickerson for assignment. Of course, Tampa Bay also picked up righty power hitter C.J. Cron and reliever Sergio Romo.
All things considered, then, it seems the Rays are engaged in a broad re-shaping of their 2018 roster and near-term balance sheet, more than a pure tear-down. That would square with the team’s insistence last night — via top baseball execs Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom — that further moves to part with veterans were not anticipated.
It is still a bit difficult to know just what to make of the overall slate of moves. Perhaps the addition of Gomez was in some part simply a reaction to the team’s decision to deal Souza, which came about as a result of what that front office duo suggested was an overwhelming offer from the Diamondbacks. Similarly, earlier moves — especially, the addition of Denard Span as a salary offset in the Evan Longoria deal — had left the Rays with a lefty-heavy outfield mix.
There’s no doubt some opportunism in the Gomez contract itself. MLBTR predicted he’d command a $22MM guarantee over two seasons, ranking him 23rd on the list of the top 50 free agents at the start of the offseason. Landing such a productive player at the reported rate — just $4MM on a single-season commitment — represents a notable bargain.
Though Gomez has earned his share of detractors with a vibrant and assertive (some might call it brash) personality on the field, and is not far removed from a miserable run with the Astros, he is coming off of a big season with the Rangers. Notably, Gomez received an $11.5MM guarantee in advance of the 2017 campaign. He went on to post a .255/.340/.462 batting line with 17 home runs and 13 steals over 426 plate appearances.
To be fair, there were a few clear signs of an ongoing decline. Gomez’s strikeout rate stayed in the thirty percent range, as it did in his rough prior campaign, and he was reliant upon a .336 BABIP that sits above his career mean. And Gomez is no longer a premium performer on the bases or in the field. Still, he rated as a plus on the basepaths and drew near-average grades for his glovework in center, so he still offers value as an all-around player. While it seems unlikely Gomez will return to his superstar peak, he seems likely to be at least an average regular or high-end platoon option.
Whatever the reason things shook out this way, the Rays will — barring further action — enter the 2018 season with an outfield unit that nobody could have predicted when the offseason got underway. Gomez, Span, and Mallex Smith now appear to represent the top three options to flank center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL East Notes: Pomeranz, Davis, Valencia, Arroyo
The results of Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz‘ recent MRI showed a flexor strain, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports on Twitter. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com says that Pomeranz describes the strain as “mild” and isn’t too worried about it. Mastrodonato later tweeted that every player who had a flexor strain last season missed at least six weeks, with one exception – Pomeranz. Last year’s injury caused him to spend 10 days on the DL. It should be strongly noted that all of this is simply one year’s worth of statistics, and we’ve yet to hear any announcement on Boston’s plans for their starter. Pomeranz pitched to a 3.32 ERA across 30 starts last season for the Red Sox, striking out just over a batter per inning while posting a 43.2% ground ball rate. He’s slated to become a free agent following the 2018 season.
Elsewhere in the American League’s Eastern Division…
- Speaking of injuries, Orioles first baseman Chris Davis had an MRI on his right forearm, but it turns out that there’s no structural damage. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun was first with the news on Twitter. Manager Buck Showalter had previously described the concern with Davis as a “flexor mass” issue (via Dan Connolly of baltimorebaseball.com). The Orioles will be hoping that Davis can stay healthy and bounce back this year after a rough 2017 season during which he homered 26 times but struck out in a whopping 37.2% of his plate appearances en route to a more pedestrian performance overall. He’ll enter the 2018 season at the age of 32; it’s the third year of a seven-year contract with Baltimore that guarantees him a total of $161MM.
- In other Orioles news, the recently-signed Danny Valencia has no plans to go to the minors if the team opts not to add him to the major league roster, according to a piece by Rich Dubroff of pressboxonline.com. “I have nothing to prove down there,” Valencia said. “I’ve been a productive big leaguer… Obviously, you want to be in the big leagues and I think it’ll all work out.” Valencia had been reasonably productive for the Blue Jays and A’s across the 2015-2016 seasons, posting 3.2 fWAR while hammering 35 homers during that span. It’s tough to peg the value of his performance as a Mariner last year, however, as formulas like bWAR, fWAR and WARP varied greatly in their outputs.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details the story of how new Rays infielder Christian Arroyo was raised by a single mother. Kim Arroyo worked ten-hour shifts on the casino floor at Hard Rock in order to support her son. But as he grew up, she still managed to find the time to play catch with him and throw batting practice. Kim says she had lots of help from family and friends, but Christian made clear the wealth of credit his mother deserves for what she did for him, and the values she instilled in him while she was raising him. “She did everything she could to make sure we never were struggling, and I never knew we were,” he said.