Central Notes: Schoop, Davidson, Cardinals
Second baseman Jonathan Schoop has endured a dreadful couple months since the Brewers acquired him from the Orioles at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Nevertheless, considering what the the Brewers gave up for Schoop, they’re “unlikely” to non-tender him in the offseason, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. Schoop’s projected to earn $10.1MM in his final trip through arbitration, and that salary figures to help weigh down the 27-year-old’s trade value if Milwaukee tries to move him. Schoop was one of the game’s best second basemen in 2017, but his numbers dipped in the first half of this season with the Orioles and have gone in the tank in Milwaukee, with which he batted .202/.246/.331 in 134 regular-season plate appearances. And while the Brewers will advance to the World Series if they win Game 7 of the NLCS on Saturday, Schoop hasn’t been a factor in their playoff run, having gone hitless in seven at-bats. Unsurprisingly, Schoop’s not in the starting lineup for the Brewers’ series-deciding game against the Dodgers.
A bit more from the majors’ Central divisions…
- Fresh off his second straight 20-home run season, one which featured unspectacular overall production (104 wRC+) across 496 plate appearances, White Sox DH/corner infielder Matt Davidson would like to do more pitching in 2019. Davidson, who chipped in three scoreless innings of one-hit ball as a reliever in 2018, will spend the offseason working to become a legitimate two-way player, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports. The White Sox have okayed Davidson’s plan and will be able to monitor his progress in the offseason, given that he lives close to their Arizona-based complex, according to Levine. Davidson was a high school pitcher, notes Levine, who writes that Chicago’s coaching staff sees “decent movement” in his 92 mph fastball. Should Davidson achieve his goal, the soon-to-be 28-year-old would work out of the bullpen – albeit not in high-leverage situations – as a way to help keep the team’s conventional relievers fresh, per Levine.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier this month that the Cardinals would seek left-handed relief help in the offseason. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak confirmed as much this week, saying (via Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com): “When you’re looking at last year versus this year, I do feel like we’re looking at more depth than we had a year ago at this time. I also recognize that I think the biggest Achilles’ [heel] right now in our bullpen is the left side.” The Cardinals shuffled through numerous southpaw relief options during the season, but none inspired much confidence, as Langosch details; moreover, they don’t seem to have a dominant lefty under control going into 2019, Langosch points out. Notably, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd took a look at the lefty relief market for the upcoming offseason earlier this week. That piece should be of particular interest to Cardinals fans in light of Mozeliak’s comments.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Greiner, McCann, Indians, White Sox
While the hires of chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine brought a more analytical approach to the Twins‘ roster construction process, Minnesota is also overhauling its strength & conditioning and sports medicine staffs to make greater use of data and analytics, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic explores in a fascinating look at the changes to the department (subscription link). “We’ve added some analytical resources to our performance staff,” director of baseball operations Daniel Adler tells Hayes. “…We’re learning where we can trust the data, where it’s good, where it’s not as good. … Who knows if in 10 years teams may have medical-focused R&D departments that are as large as entire R&D departments are today. I don’t know. But it’s not crazy to imagine that.” The Twins have done extensive research on giving players proactive rest and implemented programs surrounding that effort. Minnesota’s R&D staff is also examining the manner in which elements such as indoor vs. outdoor batting practice, early infield work and other training activities impact a player’s ability to recover.
The newer initiatives help to explain some of the turnover on the Twins’ minor league staff in recent years, as Falvey emphasized to Hayes the importance of making sure the minor league coaches, player development staff and the rest of the front office all share a similar vision and philosophy. Once the team has hired a new skipper to replace Paul Molitor, they’ll also hire a new director of player performance to help oversee all of these areas, per Hayes.
Here’s more out of the division…
- Tigers catcher Grayson Greiner has been diagnosed with a bone chip in his right wrist and will undergo surgery to remove it next week, the team announced. While the injury shouldn’t impact his availability for Spring Training, it likely gives the team added incentive to retain arbitration-eligible catcher James McCann, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press — even on the heels of a sub-par season at the plate. The 28-year-old McCann hit a career-worst .220/.267/.314 in a career-high 457 plate appearances this past season, but GM Al Avila ad others in the organization still believe there’s more potential in his bat, Fenech notes. While McCann’s trade value is at a low point, the Tigers likely still see some value in retaining him to work with a young pitching staff. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a $3.5MM salary for McCann next season.
- MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian fields a number of offseason-related questions in his latest Indians mailbag column, most notably exploring Danny Salazar‘s role with the team in 2019. Salazar missed the 2018 campaign due to shoulder surgery and would require a $5MM commitment via arbitration this offseason, but with both Cody Allen and Andrew Miller perhaps departing via free agency, he could be an intriguing bullpen candidate next year. The Indians plan to bring Salazar and righty Cody Anderson to camp as starters, per Bastian, though either could be shifted to a relief role. The Cleveland rotation, after all, looks largely set with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber all in the fold, though certainly an injury could change that mix. Bastian also looks at some other impending free agents, speculating that Michael Brantley could well receive a $17.9MM qualifying offer.
- Right-hander Nate Jones tells Scott Merkin of MLB.com that he hopes to remain with the White Sox despite the team’s rebuilding status and several injury-shortened seasons. The ChiSox have a $4.65MM club option on Jones that comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making the overall $3.4MM decision on his services seem relatively straightforward. Jones, 32, has long been a quality bullpen piece, though injuries have held him to 41 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. Still, given the modest price tag and the upside, he seems plenty worth keeping around, if for no other reason than he has a second club option for the 2020 season and would be an undeniably appealing trade asset next summer if he can avoid the disabled list. The White Sox figure to be in the market for veteran additions to the relief corps this offseason anyhow, Merkin adds.
Players Electing Free Agency
Quite a few players will hit the open market this fall, and they’ll do so by way of varying mechanisms. The end of the regular season triggered a recent wave of free agents, consisting of a certain subset of players — namely, those who were outrighted from 40-man rosters during the season and accepted minor-league assignments at that time despite having the right to elect free agency. Players in that situation are entitled instead to hit the open market at season’s end, if they were not added back to the 40-man roster in the meantime.
As conveyed by Matt Eddy of Baseball America, who also covers quite a few other minor moves, these players have now elected free agency:
Athletics: RHP Raul Alcantara, LHP Danny Coulombe
Blue Jays: RHP Mike Hauschild, INF/OF Darnell Sweeney
Braves: LHP Rex Brothers, RHP Miguel Socolovich
Cardinals: LHP Tyler Lyons
Indians: RHP Evan Marshall, RHP Alexi Ogando
Mariners: RHP Christian Bergman, LHP Ross Detwiler, RHP Mike Morin, INF Zach Vincej
Marlins: OF JB Shuck
Mets: RHP Chris Beck, OF Bryce Brentz, RHP Scott Copeland, OF Matt den Dekker, INF Ty Kelly
Nationals: LHP Tommy Milone, OF Moises Sierra, RHP Carlos Torres
Orioles: RHP Jhan Marinez, INF Luis Sardinas
Padres: OF Matt Szczur
Phillies: INF Trevor Plouffe
Pirates: LHP Buddy Boshers, RHP Casey Sadler, RHP A.J. Schugel
Rangers: C Juan Centeno, LHP Anthony Gose, RHP Drew Hutchison, INF Tommy Joseph, RHP Chris Rowley
Rays: INF Brandon Snyder, RHP Ryan Weber
Reds: C Tim Federowicz, RHP Kevin Quackenbush
Tigers: INF Dixon Machado, RHP Jacob Turner
White Sox: RHP Tyler Danish
Quick Hits: Mets, Melvin, Nationals, Lucroy, Dunning
The Mets will interview former Rangers and Brewers GM Doug Melvin about their open general manager’s position sometime in the next week or two, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Melvin, who has been a senior advisor for Milwaukee since being moved out of the GM role in August 2015, was first linked to the Mets by Fancred’s Jon Heyman back in August. With Mets owner Fred Wilpon reportedly looking to hire a seasoned executive with a scouting background, Melvin’s 30 years of front office experience would certainly seem to make him a solid candidate, though COO Jeff Wilpon is seemingly more keen on a more analytical mind in New York’s baseball ops department. Up to a dozen “serious candidates” are reportedly under consideration for the Mets’ GM job, however, so Melvin still faces tough competition.
Some more from around the baseball world as we prepare for the AL Wild Card game….
- The Nationals are parting ways with assistant GM Bob Miller, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) reports that the Nats didn’t renew Miller’s contract. Miller has worked in Washington for the last four seasons, and has longstanding ties with Nats GM Mike Rizzo when the two worked together with in Diamondbacks organization. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link) describes Miller as Rizzo’s “right-hand man” in the front office and the team’s “rules guru,” also crediting Miller with the trade that brought Trea Turner and Joe Ross to the Nationals.
- Jonathan Lucroy didn’t contribute much at the plate for the Athletics this season, but the signing of the veteran catcher has become a major move in Oakland’s run to the AL wild card game, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Thanks to an up-and-down 2017 season, a dropoff in his framing numbers, and perhaps just the overall chilled free agent market, Lucroy had to settle for a one-year, $6.5MM deal from the A’s in March. Catcher became a need for the A’s once Bruce Maxwell fell out of favor with the team, and Lucroy’s veteran knowledge became particularly important given the number of young arms that ended up on the roster due to injuries and a focus on the bullpen. “I don’t even know the numbers of starters that we’ve gone through with unfortunate injuries,” closer Blake Treinen said. “And then the amount of arms that we had in the bullpen through September, trying to keep hitters off balance, knowing what everybody has, trying to read their stuff on that day. [Lucroy has] been pretty solid, to say the least, for us back there, and it’s a good luxury to have.” Lucroy’s mediocre offensive numbers will limit his free agent market and keep him in Oakland’s price range, so it will be interesting to see if the A’s could pursue a reunion with the catcher in free agency this winter.
- White Sox pitching prospect Dane Dunning‘s season was cut short by an elbow sprain, but after rehabbing the injury, Dunning tells The Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) that he is hopeful of avoiding surgery altogether. Dunning may even get a few instruction league innings under his belt just to test his arm before the offseason. The 29th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Dunning came to Chicago as part of the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nationals, and his prospect stock has since been on the rise. He cracked the preseason top-100 prospect lists from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and MLB.com prior to 2018, and then posted a 2.71 ERA, 3.85 K/BB rate, and 10.4 K/9 over 86 1/3 combined innings at A-ball and Double-A this season.
White Sox Outright Dustin Garneau
The White Sox have outrighted catcher Dustin Garneau to Triple-A Charlotte, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. The club now has one open spot on its 40-man roster.
Chicago claimed Garneau off waivers from the Athletics in late May, and he went on to collect just three plate appearances with his new team. The 31-year-old spent the majority of the season in Charlotte, where he hit a solid .252/.340/.468 with seven home runs in 160 plate appearances. That continued a strong Triple-A run for Garneau, a career .262/.332/.494 hitter in 1,101 PA at the minors’ highest level.
While Garneau has hit well in the minors, his bat has been decidedly less impressive in the majors. Garneau owns a .194/.269/.321 line in 280 trips to the plate in MLB.
Rick Hahn On White Sox’ Offseason Plans
White Sox GM Rick Hahn addressed the media yesterday regarding the state of his organization’s rebuilding efforts and plans for the coming offseason. Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and James Fegan of The Athletic (subscription link) were among those to participate in the chat.
Of particular note, Hahn gave some clues as to the South Siders’ market stance this winter. From an outside perspective, the organization’s wide-open payroll and anticipated timeline — along with a potentially intriguing opportunity in the game’s worst division — make the Sox potential pursuers of some top-flight talent over the coming winter.
Hahn made clear that the ballclub — which is presently sitting on a 62-96 record — is “not yet in a position realistically to be adding so-called finishing pieces.” That’s hard to argue.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that the team isn’t positioned to commit some cash under the right circumstances. The veteran exec emphasized that he’d like to avoid “short-term fixes that will complicate things in the long run.” Rather, he said, the focus will be on setting the organization up “for an extended run.”
Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Hahn ultimately landed on an oft-heard buzzword to describe his expected approach: opportunism. Noting that it’s generally not possible to “control when certain players become available,” Hahn hinted at potential involvement with higher-end performers.
As he put it:
“If we see long-term pieces that make sense, in addition to augmenting the pitching or filling certain needs for 2019, I think we have the flexibility to pursue them and we are going to be opportunistic and respond to the market accordingly.”
It could be that the White Sox will pursue something like the recent approach of the Phillies, who brought in several high-priced veterans on relatively short-term deals at a point at which their young roster had not yet fully matured. Of course, while there’s room to spend, the Chicago org did not maintain a payroll as lofty as that of the Phils during those teams’ most recent competitive phases. At the same time, the Philadelphia club’s 2017-18 outlay came in a market that did not feature the sort of eye-popping young talent that’ll be on offer this winter. It’s not hard to imagine the Sox being somewhat more reluctant than the Phillies were last winter, while at the same time being aggressive in chasing particular players.
Ultimately, the White Sox will need to bear in mind the limitations on their near-term outlook. It’s a club that’s still waiting for some talented players to make hoped-for strides. Yoan Moncada, for instance, has been only a league-average hitter due to his difficulties reaching base. Hahn noted that Moncada could be moved around the diamond if the situation calls for it, so he’ll join Yolmer Sanchez as a flexible piece who can adapt to the team’s other moves. It sounds as if Tim Anderson remains entrenched at shortstop, with Hahn praising his defensive efforts, though of course his bat is also still in need of development. The organization has a variety of other interesting players already playing in the majors, but only Anderson has posted more than 2.0 fWAR this year, hinting at the remaining uncertainty.
Perhaps there’d be a stronger argument for the Sox to begin pushing the pedal to the floor had Michael Kopech not gone down with a torn ulnar collateral ligament. With Kopech out for the 2019 season, the team’s rotation outlook is significantly weakened. Hahn says he is committed only to Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, and Lucas Giolito — a that trio had its share of concerns this year, particularly when peripherals are examined.
Losing Kopech not only shaves off a significant bit of upside, but leaves a roster in need of innings which “very likely will come from outside the organization,” per Hahn. It’s not clear as yet whether a significant acquisition or two might be possible, or if the team will instead mostly pursue gap-filling measures in building out its rotation.
Avisail Garcia To Undergo Knee Surgery
White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia is set to undergo right knee surgery, he told reporters including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin (Twitter link). The precise nature of the procedure isn’t clear, but it seems there’s little reason to think it’ll pose any problems going forward.
Indeed, Garcia will wait until just after the conclusion of the regular season to have the work done. That’s as good an indication as any that there’s no real concern of jeopardizing his ability to prepare for the 2019 season.
Garcia says he has been battling issues in the joint all year long. He ended up on the shelf for stretches of the season and to this point has appeared in only 88 games.
Of greater concern for the South Siders is the fact that Garcia fell shy of his excellent 2017 output at the plate. Thus far in 2018, he’s slashing only .238/.278/.440. Though he has matched his career-high of 18 home runs in just 367 plate appearances, Garcia has also seen his strikeout rate jump to a career-high 26.4%.
On the positive side, Garcia actually made hard contact at a better rate (38.2%) than in 2017 or ever before. His year-over-year BABIP drop of 119 points (.392 to .273) certainly speaks to some variations in batted-ball fortune. Indeed, Statcast figures suggest that Garcia’s 2017 luck (.375 wOBA vs. .359 xwOBA) has simply turned in 2018 (.303 wOBA vs. .332 xwOBA).
Ultimately, the 27-year-old is all but certain to be tendered a contract by the White Sox. He’ll be in line for a raise on his current $6.7MM salary before qualifying for free agency, unless the club decides to pursue a longer-term contract.
Past, Present & Future: American League Closer Turnover
By the end of the 2017 season, the list of pitchers closing out games for their respective teams included Matt Belisle, Alex Claudio, Juan Minaya and Mike Minor. Three of them were without a career save coming into the season—Belisle had five in 13 MLB seasons—and none had been expected to fill a significant late-inning bullpen role. By way of injuries, trades or ineffectiveness from those ahead of them on the depth chart, they were given a chance to record the final out in a close win and proved themselves capable.
Things haven’t changed much this year. Raise your hand if you thought Wily Peralta would have one save in 2018. He has 13! Of the 15 American League teams, only four currently have a closer situation that mirrors what they had on Opening Day. When it comes to closers, uncertainty is the only certainty. And that’s why Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are Hall of Famers and the relief pitchers who will join them in Cooperstown in the future are few and far between.
Here’s a look back at each American League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (Click HERE to view the National League.)
[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]
Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Committee — Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens
September 2018: Mychal Givens
Future Outlook: Brach got the majority of the committee’s save chances prior to Zach Britton reclaiming the job shortly after returning from the disabled list in late June. Soon after, Givens was the last man standing following a series of July trades (Brach to the Braves; Britton to the Yankees). O’Day, meanwhile, suffered a season-ending hamstring surgery and was later traded to Atlanta in a separate deal.
A valuable setup man for most of the past three seasons, Givens has done a fine job since taking over ninth-inning duties. In his last 19 appearances, he has a 2.18 ERA and eight saves in 10 chances. With so many holes to fill on the roster, upgrading at the closer position is probably low on the Orioles’ priority list. Givens, therefore, likely enters 2019 with the job — if he isn’t traded himself this offseason as the O’s continue their rebuilding efforts.
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Boston Red Sox | Red Sox Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Craig Kimbrel
September 2018: Craig Kimbrel
Future Outlook: Kimbrel, who recently became the fourth pitcher in MLB history to record at least 40 saves in five different seasons, has been a huge part of Boston’s historic season. As a free agent following the 2018 campaign, the 30-year-old will command a contract that rivals the highest-paid relievers in the game. Can the Red Sox afford to let him walk? Just in case he does, they’ll have to plan accordingly.
With Joe Kelly also set to become a free agent, Matt Barnes is the logical choice to inherit the closer’s gig. He’s earned the opportunity with a 3.28 ERA and 25 holds while serving as the primary setup man on the best team in baseball. The 28-year-old also has an impressive 13.9 K/9 in 60.1 innings of work, an increase from 10.7 K/9 in ’17 and 9.6 K/9 in ’16. The only question is whether a team capable of winning over 100 games will entrust the role to someone with two career saves. If Kimbrel signs elsewhere, it seems likely that the Sox would pursue alternatives in free agency and/or trades.
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Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Joakim Soria
September 2018: Committee — Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Minaya, etc.
Future Outlook: Soria was as good as he’d been in years, posting a 2.56 ERA with 16 saves and 11.4 K/9 in 40 appearances. The White Sox cashed in by sending him to the Brewers for two pitching prospects in late July. Since then, they’ve handed off the closer’s job to a committee that included just about any relief pitcher on their active roster—seven different pitchers have recorded saves since the Soria trade.
The next step for the rebuilding White Sox is to put together a roster that can, at the very least, be a .500 team and potential playoff contender. Having a reliable closer would be an important part of that plan. Jones looks the part, but he’s missed most of the last two seasons recovering from elbow surgery and still might not be ready to take on the workload of a primary closer. A healthy Zack Burdi, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2016 and one time “closer of the future,” could also be in the mix at some point, though he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery. They’ll likely play it safe, however, and add at least one veteran with closing experience this offseason.
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Cleveland Indians | Indians Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Cody Allen
September 2018: Co-Closers – Allen and Brad Hand
Future Outlook: Allen has a lot of mileage on his arm, averaging 71 relief appearances per season since 2013, and it’s showed at times during the current season. With Andrew Miller on the disabled list and Allen’s ERA creeping up near 5.00, the Indians’ acquisition of Brad Hand from the Padres on July 19th was a no-brainer.
Not only has it helped them down the stretch—Hand has a 2.45 ERA and eight saves while Allen has 10 consecutive scoreless appearances—it also gives the Indians a very good closer option for 2019. Allen and Miller are both headed for free agency while the 28-year-old Hand is under contract through 2021. The job should be his moving forward.
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Detroit Tigers | Tigers Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Shane Greene
September 2018: Shane Greene
Future Outlook: With a 5.20 ERA and six blown saves in 37 chances, Greene is probably lucky to have held on to the job for the entire season. But on a rebuilding Tigers team, who is going to close out games for them is the least of their worries. With that said, Greene probably fits best as a setup man. Even if they don’t upgrade this offseason, All-Star Joe Jimenez (11.2 K/9, 22 holds, 3 saves, 2.88 FIP) could supplant Greene in 2019.
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Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Co-Closers – Chris Devenski and Ken Giles
September 2018: Roberto Osuna
Future Outlook: Despite a drop in strikeout rate—8.0 K/9 in ’18; 11.7 K/9 in ’17—Osuna has continued to perform at a high level amid abuse allegations that led to a 75-game suspension under MLB’s domestic abuse policy. The Astros still decided to acquire him in a trade with the Jays despite the ongoing investigation.
Barring any struggles during the team’s playoff run — he’s postseason eligible in spite of that suspension — or any further off-the-field troubles, the 23-year-old Osuna seems likely to enter 2019 as the Astros’ closer. He’s under club control through the 2020 season.
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Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Kelvin Herrera
September 2018: Wily Peralta
Future Outlook: Soon after Herrera was traded to Washington in mid-June, Peralta emerged from the closer committee to become one of the unlikeliest ninth-inning success stories of 2018. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the 29-year-old has 13 saves in 13 chances and a 9.5 K/9 rate.
After getting booted from the Brewers’ rotation last May, he had a disastrous 11-appearance stint as a relief pitcher (17 1/3 innings, 23 ER, 28 H, 15 BB) before getting designated for assignment in late July. He signed a Major League deal with Kansas City this offseason, only to be designated for assignment again and outrighted to Triple-A. He returned to the Majors one day before the Herrera trade and picked up his first MLB save eight days later.
Peralta has a $3MM club option in 2019, which could very well be exercised. Even if it’s not, he’s remain under team control for one more season via arbitration. While he’s been better than anyone could’ve anticipated in his current role, his 22 walks in 31 1/3 innings serve as a red flag that will likely keep the Royals from locking him into the job next season without some form of competition.
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Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Keynan Middleton
September 2018: Ty Buttrey
Future Outlook: Blake Parker, who finished 2017 as the closer, picked up the team’s first save of 2018 after finishing last season in the role. But it was Middleton who got the call for the next six save chances, all successful, making it clear that he was manager Mike Scioscia‘s preferred choice in the ninth inning. A few weeks later, however, Middleton had undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery and it was back to the drawing board for the Angels.
Parker got the majority of save chances with Middleton out. And as was the case in 2017, he got the job done with a 3.21 ERA and 13 saves in 16 chances from May 14th—the day after Middleton’s last game— through September 3rd. But Buttrey, acquired from the Red Sox in the July deal for Ian Kinsler, is getting a chance to show what he can do as of late. In six appearances from September 7th through September 18th, the 25-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and four saves. He has failed to convert his last two save chances, though.
Regardless, there probably wasn’t enough time for Buttrey to seal the job for 2019. He will be a candidate alongside Parker, though, unless the Angels acquire a closer this offseason.
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Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Fernando Rodney
September 2018: Trevor Hildenberger
Future Outlook: After saving 25 games and solidifying the ninth inning for Minnesota over the first four months of the season, Rodney was traded to Oakland in August. Ryan Pressly, who would’ve been the logical choice to succeed him, was traded to Houston in late July. A closer committee appeared likely, but Hildenberger has been the go-to guy with seven saves in eight chances since Rodney’s departure. Taylor Rogers, while serving mostly in a setup role, has not allowed a run over his last 23 2/3 innings while logging two saves and 11 holds over that span.
Between Hildenberger, Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor May, who has five walks and 31 strikeouts in 23 innings in his first season since Tommy John surgery, the Twins have some decent late-inning options for 2019. It’s probably not enough to keep them away from the offseason closer’s market, though.
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New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Aroldis Chapman
September 2018: Co-Closers – Zach Britton and Dellin Betances
Future Outlook: Chapman might not have enough time to reclaim the closer’s job before the end of the regular season—he returned from the disabled list last Wednesday—or even the playoffs for that matter. But there’s no reason to think a change is on the horizon in 2019. The 30-year-old lefty, who is 31-for-33 in save opportunities and is striking out 16.1 batters per nine innings, will be entering year three of a five-year, $85MM contract.
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Oakland Athletics | Athletics Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Blake Treinen
September 2018: Blake Treinen
Future Outlook: Treinen has been one of the breakout stars in 2018, saving 37 games while posting an 0.80 ERA and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings for a playoff-bound A’s team. The 30-year-old is still under team control for two more seasons, although he’s in line for a significant raise from the $2.15MM he made in ’18. Barring injury, there’s no doubt that he’ll retain the job in 2019.
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Seattle Mariners | Mariners Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Edwin Diaz 
September 2018: Edwin Diaz
Future Outlook: No other closer, arguably, has contributed more to his team’s success than the 24-year-old Diaz, who has 14 more saves (56) than any other pitcher in baseball and 13 more save chances (60). The Mariners play a lot of close ballgames—they are 36-21 in one-run games—and Diaz rarely gives his opponent a chance in the ninth inning. He has held his opponent scoreless in 59 of his 71 appearances and hitless in 44. He also has 41 multi-strikeout games.
The 24-year-old is going to get paid once he reaches arbitration, although he could fall just short during the upcoming offseason. The Super Two cutoff has not fallen under 2.122 (two years, 122 days) since 2009. Diaz will be one day shy of that total.
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Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Alex Colome
September 2018: Co-Closers – Sergio Romo/Jose Alvarado
Future Outlook: When Colome was traded to Seattle on May 25th, the Rays were two games under .500 and 10 games out in the division. It’s not clear whether they were throwing in the towel or whether they just had enough confidence in Romo, who had 84 career saves coming into the season, and the remaining group of young arms. In any case, it’s worked out just fine.
Since the trade, the Rays are 64-44 with Romo as the primary closer (3.38 ERA, 23-for-28 in save chances) and Alvarado, a 23-year-old lefty, also playing an integral role (1.98 ERA, 7 saves). Not that you can count on the Rays to do anything conventional like name a closer prior to the season or at any point during the regular season, but Alvarez and the hard-throwing Diego Castillo would be the leading in-house candidates if they did. Tampa Bay could also look to bring Romo back into the fold.
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Texas Rangers | Rangers Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Keone Kela
September 2018: Jose Leclerc
Future Outlook: No relief pitcher has boosted their value more in the second half of the season than Leclerc, who spent the first four months in a setup role. Once Kela was traded to the Pirates on July 31st, it was the 24-year-old Leclerc’s chance to shine. It’s hard to imagine a more convincing way to show that he wouldn’t be relinquishing the job anytime soon.
Aside from converting each of his 11 save opportunities, Leclerc has allowed just two hits and six walks over 17 scoreless innings while striking out 28. The Rangers will look to bolster their bullpen this offseason, but finding a new closer isn’t likely to be on the agenda. Leclerc is controlled through 2022.
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Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Opening Day 2018: Roberto Osuna
September 2018: Ken Giles
Future Outlook: Despite being the primary closer on the World Champion Astros, it was clear that Giles was not trusted with the game on the line. The trade to Toronto in late July gave the 28-year-old a chance to re-establish himself, out of the spotlight, as a reliable late-inning reliever. So far, so good.
After a few shaky appearances to begin his Blue Jays tenure, Giles has settled into the closer’s role with 1.29 ERA over his past 15 appearances with 12 saves in 12 chances. It might not be enough to prevent the Jays from pursuing another option this winter, but Giles should at least be in the mix.
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Brad Brach
Zach Britton
Sean Doolittle (if $6MM club option is declined)
Jeurys Familia
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Sergio Romo
Silver Linings: American League Central
It’s often difficult to feel positive about a team when it is finishing out a season that won’t end in meaningful games, let alone postseason play. Still, there are silver linings to be found in even the worst campaigns. We’ll tick through every division in the coming days to identify the brightest spots for the non-competitive organizations.
First up is the division most in need of a pick-me-up: the American League Central. With the Indians cruising to a title, the four remaining clubs are all looking ahead to next year. Here’s each of those organizations’ most promising development from the ’18 campaign (with link to current depth chart):
Royals: The Middle Infield
Entering the year, the K.C. organization had a middling outlook up the middle on the dirt. Whit Merrifield had turned in a late-twenties breakout, sure, but could he keep it up? Meanwhile veteran Alcides Escobar was brought back to keep things patched up at short.
As it turns out, though, Merrifield has more than doubled down on his 2017 effort. Entering play today, he was — *checks* — **double-checks** — 25th (!) among all position-players by measure of fWAR. With ample cheap control remaining, he’s a heck of an asset, even if he is already 29 years of age.
Shortstop, though, remained an evident conundrum for much of the year. Enter (okay, re-enter) Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old, whose first MLB action improbably came in the 2015 World Series, is presently carrying a .284/.311/.467 slash with nine home runs and 25 steals in 241 plate appearances. He’s grading as an elite baserunner and high-quality defender at short, making him a potential core piece.
White Sox: Eloy On The Cusp
With apologies to Daniel Palka, Omar Narvaez, and Matt Davidson — nice seasons, all — the most notable development this year for the South Siders has occurred in their minor-league system. Many fans would like to see Eloy Jimenez in the majors right now, finishing off his spectacular campaign in style. Instead, they’ll have to wait until early 2019, though that also means their favorite club will control him for one more precious season.
Jimenez, 21, made good on his top-prospect billing, turning in a monster .337/.384/.577 campaign in 456 plate appearances split evenly between the organization’s top two affiliates. That makes him one of the truly elite prospects in baseball and, quite possibly, the much-needed superstar of the future.
Of course, there was a real shot that this nod would have gone to the pitching staff, but the hurlers just came up short. Michael Kopech‘s otherwise promising campaign ended in agony, with Tommy John surgery. Reynaldo Lopez has settled in as a solid, but hardly dominant starter. And while Carlos Rodon‘s return has been excellent in terms of results, his peripherals tell quite a different story.
Tigers: Landing Mize
No kidding, having the first pick the draft is a good thing. But it’s not every year — far from it — that a player like Casey Mize is there to be taken. Not only was Mize considered the top talent, he was also likely the most advanced player on the board.
Shades of Stephen Strasburg? The Tigers have reason to hope. He’s already sitting at the #20 spot on MLB.com’s ranking of the top prospects in baseball, to cite but one account of the impact to a Tigers system that has had its share of questions in recent years. Of course, Mize is also now but one of several intriguing young hurlers percolating up toward the majors through Detroit’s minor league ranks.
In a way, though, this is not quite the news you’d hope for. The Tigers’ MLB roster has obviously had its share of good news, including a strong year from Matt Boyd; continued success from Nicholas Castellanos (though he’s just one year from free agency); and the emergence of Niko Goodrum as a useful MLB asset. However, there hasn’t been much else to write home about otherwise at the major-league level. And a concerning season from Michael Fulmer and tepid output from Jeimer Candelario leave some cause for pessimism.
Twins: Encouraging Arms
In numerous ways, 2018 was quite a disappointment for a Minnesota organization that had designs on contention. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton not only failed to improve, but ended up on optional assignment. The team’s slate of short-term veteran signing fell way shy of delivering the anticipated value. Its leading hitter, Eduardo Escobar, was traded away months ago.
But there was one area where things went just about as well as might have been hoped: the team’s group of controllable MLB rotation pieces. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and Jake Odorizzi have all been worth at least 2.5 fWAR and look to be quality values heading into 2019. Michael Pineda fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery before being felled by a meniscus tear, so there’s good reason to think he’ll be at full health. And though well-regarded prospect Stephen Gonsalves struggled badly in brief MLB action, he just turned in a strong outing today and was rather dominant at Triple-A, working to a 2.76 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 (but only 5.7 hits per nine) in 120 2/3 innings. 23-year-old Fernando Romero, a highly regarded young right-hander, gave the team some reason for optimism as well, though his overall numbers are dragged down by one particularly catastrophic start (eight runs in 1 2/3 innings).
It wasn’t all roses in the forward-looking portion of the pitching staff. Ervin Santana‘s option doesn’t seem desirable. More worryingly, Adalberto Mejia was cut short due to injury in an otherwise promising season. And it’s not as if the showing from the above-noted hurlers was particularly exciting. More might have been hoped for from Berrios and Odorizzi.
That said, it’s perhaps too easy to dismiss this kind of affordable productivity. Setting a sturdy baseline from the rotation is a notable development, particularly for an organization that must operate within spending limitations.
Of course, finding star-level players is still of greater importance. And there were notable developments there for Minny. While the outlook on Sano and Buxton is nowhere near as promising as it once was, both still have future value. And there’s now a pair of elite prospects rising through the system. Both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both landed among the twenty top minor-league performers in 2018 and are graded among the top twenty prospects in the game (see, e.g., “The Board” at Fangraphs). They’d have represented a worthy recipient of my “silver lining” label, to be sure, but neither is expected to be ready until 2020, so I’m taking the immediate value in the staff.
Michael Kopech Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
SEPTEMBER 19: As expected, Kopech has undergone the procedure. He’s not expected back until the start of camp in 2020, per the club.
SEPTEMBER 7: White Sox righty Michael Kopech has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the team announced to reporters. Tommy John surgery has been recommended for the highly regarded young hurler.
This news represents a major blow to a rebuilding organization that had hoped to build momentum entering the 2019 campaign. Kopech, 22, had only just arrived in the majors — bringing the promise of an exciting end to a largely forgettable 2018 campaign.
While the long-term hope will remain that Kopech can become a front-of-the-rotation anchor, it’ll have to wait until 2020. Odds are, he’ll be sidelined for all of the 2019 campaign while recovering. The silver lining for the young hurler — and the twist of the dagger for the organization — is that he’ll accrue MLB service time all the while.
Kopech entered the season as one of the game’s brightest pitching prospects, and largely delivered on the hype in his first full season at Triple-A. He turned in 126 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball, with 12.1 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9, before receiving his first call-up to the majors.
Upon his promotion, Kopech turned in three eye-opening outings in the majors to close out the month of August. Though he was limited to just 11 total frames owing to the whims of Mother Nature, the youngster allowed just a single earned run while racking up nine strikeouts against one walk.
Unfortunately, the flamethrower exhibited a velocity decline in his most recent outing, an 82-pitch dud in which he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits (including four long balls) in just 3 1/3 innings. It seems that something wasn’t quite right, clearly, as the organization ordered testing that identified the newly revealed injury.
To this point, the South Siders’ efforts to build a new core have run into the realities of exposing young players to the majors. There’s still plenty of promise, but the aggregate output is a 56-84 record. And strides for some players have occurred alongside struggles for others — especially in the rotation.
When the Sox traded away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in the 2016-17 offseason, kicking the club’s rebuild into top gear, the result was a farm system that many considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to delivering top position playing prospect Yoan Moncada, that pair of swaps delivered a haul of new pitching talent.
There has been promise along the way for the hurlers, with Kopech shining as one of the brighter lights. Prospect Dane Dunning has as well, though he has been on ice since late June owing to a balky elbow. Those pitchers that have already spent significant time in the majors, though, haven’t yet delivered on their promise.
True, southpaw Carlos Rodon has put together nearly a hundred frames of 2.89 ERA ball this year after returning from his own injury problems. But even that effort has come with questions, as Rodon’s breakout in the results department has come in spite of peripheral declines. A similar early showing from Reynaldo Lopez has now corrected over the course of the full season. Other young pitchers — Lucas Giolito, Dylan Covey, Carson Fulmer — have continued to run into troubles in the majors.
At this point, the outlook of the 2019 rotation is at best uncertain. Without Kopech, the unit appears decidedly less exciting. Exactly how that’ll impact the team’s offseason plans remains to be seen, but there’s obviously potentially another hole to be filled. Of course, there’s also less cause for the organization to believe it can move into a truly competitive stance.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.