AL West Notes: Trout, Hernandez, Angels, Bruce
If Mike Trout hadn’t signed his six-year, $144.5MM extension with the Angels in March 2014, the superstar outfielder would’ve been a free agent this offseason. As CBSSports.com’s Mike Axisa writes, this would have led to the single biggest contract in sports history, let alone baseball history. Trout just turned 26 last August, and thus a long-term deal would’ve easily topped Giancarlo Stanton‘s record 13-year, $325MM record pact with the Marlins. Axisa figures a Trout free agent deal would’ve landed well north of $500MM, with even a potential of $600MM in total earnings (in the event of a 14-year deal with bonuses and a buyout of an option year) if Trout didn’t exercise any of what probably would’ve been multiple opt-out clauses. The scenario makes for a fun “what-if” read for baseball fans, and certainly a sigh of relief for Angels fans in particular.
Here’s more from around the AL West…
- The Angels “extensively examined” Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez this season, Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times writes, and Hernandez figures to be on the Halos’ target list as the club looks to fill its longstanding hole at second base this winter. The two teams also briefly discussed Hernandez last offseason but the Angels balked at Philadelphia’s high asking price. If anything, that price tag will be even higher now, as Hernandez is coming off another strong campaign — .294/.373/.421 with nine homers and 15 steals over 511 plate appearances. Hernandez is projected by MLBTR to earn $4.7MM in 2018, the second of four arbitration-eligible years as a Super Two player.
- Beaumont native Jay Bruce would like to sign with one of his home-state teams (the Astros or Rangers), NJ Advance Media’s Abbey Mastracco writes. A return to the Mets is also a possibility, though Bruce’s top priority is to play for a contender. Bruce isn’t a perfect fit on either the Houston or Texas rosters, though the Astros could use another left-handed bat and the DH spot is opening up with Carlos Beltran‘s likely departure. The Rangers could also have DH or right field at-bats open depending on where Shin-Soo Choo plays, or if the team wants to give top prospect Willie Calhoun a look. What doesn’t seem likely, however, is that either Texas club signs Bruce at his initial five-year, $80-$90MM asking price.
AL Notes: Choo, Rangers, BoSox, M’s, Ichiro, Orioles
Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo is a “luxury” the Rangers can’t afford, opines the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant, who contends that the team should shop the 35-year-old in hopes of improving elsewhere. Choo has an onerous contract, though, as he’s owed $62MM through 2020, so the Rangers’ best hope might be flipping him for another team’s unappealing deal, Grant writes. With that in mind, Grant lists three right-handers signed through 2020 – the Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann ($74MM remaining on his pact), the Royals’ Ian Kennedy ($49MM) and the Reds’ Homer Bailey ($49MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2020) – as players the starter-needy Rangers could potentially acquire in exchange for Choo. Notably, Choo spent the 2013 campaign in Cincinnati and thrived, which helped pave the way for him to sign a seven-year, $130MM pact with the Rangers in the ensuing offseason.
More from the American League:
- Red Sox catcher prospect Daniel Flores passed away Wednesday over complications stemming from cancer treatment, but he was only diagnosed with the disease (testicular cancer) in late October, family friend Jose Salas Jr. told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “When we saw it was bad, we did CT scans, X-rays, and stuff, and it was way too late, it was already too late,” said Salas, who was also Flores’ trainer. “He was so strong that he wouldn’t feel pain. . . . There were no indications, nothing suspicious, no negligence, there was nothing. . . . I don’t know what to tell you.” Flores was playing in the Dominican Republic instructional league shortly before he received his diagnosis, which came after he complained of back pain, and teammate and pitching prospect Alex Scherff informed Speier that “you literally couldn’t have been able to see that he was in that condition at all. He completely dominates the game. He’s the best catcher I’ve ever seen, no doubt in my mind at all.” Speier’s piece, which further profiles Flores and includes more quotes from Salas and Scherff, is certainly worth checking out in full.
- The Mariners are “highly unlikely” to reunite with free agent outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, Greg Johns of MLB.com hears. While Ichiro established himself as a Mariners legend during his time with the club from 2001-12, bringing the 44-year-old back would go against the team’s plans to get younger, Johns notes. It’s also unclear how much the future Hall of Famer has left at this point, given that he slashed a paltry .255/.318/.332 in 215 plate appearances with the Marlins this past season. That subpar output led the Fish to decline Ichiro’s inexpensive team option ($2MM).
- Although Zach Britton, Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart remain on hand after seeing plenty of action in 2017, the Orioles are nonetheless on the lookout for left-handed relief help, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The top available free agents include Mike Minor, Jake McGee, ex-Oriole Brian Duensing and Tony Watson, though the club could instead opt for a low-profile addition on a minor league deal, Kubatko suggests.
Latest On Shohei Otani
2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.
1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani‘s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.
Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.
The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.
The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.
Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)
According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.
Rangers Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Andrew Cashner
The Rangers will not make a qualifying offer to right-hander Andrew Cashner, GM Jon Daniels tells reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan). MLBl.com’s Mark Feinsand had tweeted shortly before Daniels’ comments that Cashner would not receive a QO.
A qualifying offer for Cashner has always been a long shot, though reports in recent weeks have suggested that Texas was at least weighing the one-year, $17.4MM proposal to Cashner. Texas signed Cashner to a one-year, $10MM contract last offseason and was rewarded with 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball. Cashner, though, turned in one of the worst K/9 rates in all of baseball (4.64) and averaged a pedestrian 3.46 BB/9 as well. His unsightly K/BB numbers make him a candidate for significant regression in the ERA department, as is evidenced by less-than-glowing reviews from metrics like FIP (4.61), xFIP (5.30) and SIERA (5.52).
That said, Cashner has made 27 or more starts in each of the past three seasons and averaged 150+ innings per year in that time. He’s not the top-end starter that may projected him to be in his prospect days and early in his career with the Padres, but the 31-year-old should nonetheless draw interest from several clubs this offseason as teams look to round out the back of their rotation.
Rangers Exercise Option On Perez, Decline Options On Barnette, Napoli
The Rangers announced that they’ve exercised their $6MM club option on left-hander Martin Perez. The 2018 options of Tony Barnette ($4MM) and Mike Napoli ($11MM) have been declined. Barnette will receive a $250K buyout, while Napoli receives a $2.5MM buyout.
Beyond the option decisions, the Rangers announced that catcher A.J. Jimenez and right-hander Austin Bibens-Dirkx have cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Round Rock.
In coaching staff news for the Rangers, Texas also announced that it has hired former Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen as its new assistant pitching coach and hired former big league right-hander Colby Lewis as a special assistant to GM Jon Daniels.
The 26-year-old Perez hasn’t exactly made good on his once lofty prospect status, but he’s developed into a dependable back-of-the-rotation starter. Given the affordable nature of his option and the steep $2.35MM buyout that was associated with that option, it’d have been nothing short of shocking to see his option declined.
The 2017 season saw Perez log a team-high 185 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate. Obviously, his run-prevention numbers weren’t anywhere near where Perez or the team would’ve hoped, but he’s made 65 starts across the past two seasons for a Rangers team that is in desperate need of innings. Andrew Cashner and Miguel Gonzalez are free agents, leaving Perez and Cole Hamels as the only true locks for the Texas rotation. Other options include Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin and Yohander Mendez, but the Rangers very clearly need to add multiple arms to the rotation for the coming season.
Barnette, 34 later this week. made his Major League debut with the Rangers in 2016. A former Diamondbacks farmhand, Barnette never cracked the Majors early in his career and instead went overseas to find enormous success pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He earned a two-year Major League contract with the Rangers as a result of efforts in Japan and was every bit worth that investment in his first year with the club.
In 2016, Barnette pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 with a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate in 60 1/3 innings out of manager Jeff Bannister’s bullpen. However, his strand rate plummeted in 2017 as his BABIP rose, causing his ERA to spike to 5.49. Barnette’s strikeout rate actually improved in ’17, and metrics like FIP and xFIP didn’t feel he was all that much worse than he was in 2016. However, the disappointing bottom-line results and a need for more bullpen stability caused the Rangers to move on. Barnette’s strong 2016 season and promising uptick in punchouts could generate him some interest on big league deals with a low base salary this winter, but many teams will likely hope to bring him into camp on a minor league contract.
The 36-year-old Napoli swatted 29 homers in his return to Arlington this season but saw his batting average check in south of the Mendoza Line and his OBP land in the upper .200s. Overall, the benefit of his considerable power (.235 ISO) was counteracted by a .193/.285/.428 batting line and below-average baserunning. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference pegged him slightly worse than replacement level. Napoli struck out at a career-worst 33.6 percent clip and also popped up at a career-high 15.6 percent pace. A troublesome 38.1 percent of his trips to the plate resulted in a punchout or an infield fly. He’d already been informed that his option would be declined (as previously detailed on MLBTR), and he’ll now return to the open market in search of a new team for the 2018 campaign.
Rumors: Cards, Stanton, Yelich, Rangers, Yu, Cobb, Tribe
The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.
Meanwhile, a much-needed addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen could come soon. The Cards have reached out to representatives for certain impending free agent relievers this weekend, relays Goold, who expects them to pursue a closer and possibly a setup man. Trading for bullpen help also seems possible, as the Cardinals are facing a 40-man roster logjam in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft. With the need to finalize his 40-man by the Nov. 20 deadline, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that the team may “consider moving two roster players for one. That kind of thing. We have to be open to try.”
- Former Rangers ace and soon-to-be free agent Yu Darvish is not atop their offseason wish list, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. The Rangers will contact Darvish’s agent during free agency, but the likelihood is that he’ll be too pricey to return to the team, per Wilson. With a Darvish reunion looking like a long shot, the Rangers might turn to another established free agent right-hander in Alex Cobb, whom they covet, according to Wilson. The longtime Ray, 30, returned from a 2015 Tommy John procedure in earnest this year, tossing 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP ball.
- The Indians aren’t optimistic that they’ll be able to re-sign impending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports. Shaw has been an effective workhorse out of the Indians’ bullpen since 2013, having pitched to a 3.11 ERA across 358 2/3 innings during that five-year span, and appears poised to parlay his success in Cleveland into a contract out of the club’s price range. MLBTR projects a three-year, $21MM deal for Shaw, which the Indians believe will prove close to accurate, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com writes. With the soon-to-be 30-year-old Shaw apparently on his way out, the Tribe could feel more urgency to re-sign fellow impending free agent reliever Joe Smith, Hoynes notes. Smith, who will play his age-34 season in 2018, is fresh off a terrific campaign divided between Toronto and Cleveland.
Quick Hits: Yu, Rangers, Mariners, Brantley, D-backs, Nats
Reflecting on his six-year tenure with the Rangers, impending free agent right-hander Yu Darvish told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News via text (through an interpreter) that he “listened and paid too much attention to any criticism I heard inside and outside the clubhouse” when he was a member of the team. Darvish also revealed that his relationship with his Rangers teammates “wasn’t great” at times. Those issues sapped Darvish of some of his joy for baseball, though he noted that he began regaining it after the Rangers traded him to the Dodgers on July 31. Darvish explained that his loss of enthusiasm wasn’t the fault of his previous club, however, as he came to realize “how much the Rangers and the fans cared about me” while in LA over the final three months of the season.
More from around the majors:
- The Mariners would like to retain impending free agent center fielder Jarrod Dyson, but his age (33) might stand in the way of them giving him a multiyear deal and lead to his exit, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes. First baseman Yonder Alonso could return, on the other hand, considering both the Mariners’ need at the position and general manager Jerry Dipoto’s assessment of the late-season trade acquisition’s performance in Seattle. “He plays a pretty solid first base. I think he gave us a presence after we got beyond the middle of our order,” Dipoto said of Alonso, who batted .265/.353/.439 in 150 plate appearances after coming over from Oakland. While the M’s are open to keeping Alonso, he’ll be part of “a pretty flush class of free-agent first baseman,” according to Dipoto, who added that “there are a lot of different options for us, and we want to make sure that we’re maximizing our potential at that position.”
- Although Michael Brantley missed a large portion of this past season with right ankle problems and then underwent surgery Oct. 19, the Indians still picked up his $12MM option for 2018 on Friday. When discussing the decision with Ryan Lewis of Ohio.com and other reporters, president Chris Antonetti noted that Brantley’s surgery carries a high rate of success (Twitter link). While the Indians are optimistic about Brantley’s health, Antonetti won’t talk about how the 30-year-old fits on the Tribe’s roster until he’s further along in his rehab, per Lewis.
- Diamondbacks infielder/outfielder Chris Owings underwent surgery on his right middle finger on Friday, the club announced. Owings previously had surgery on that same finger July 31, a day after he suffered what proved to be a season-ending fracture. The latest procedure “was performed to ensure continued proper and complete healing,” the D-backs stated.
- Bobby Henley will stay on as the Nationals’ third base coach under new manager Dave Martinez, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter link). As Washington’s third base coach since the 2014 season, Henley has survived the ousters of skippers Matt Williams and Dusty Baker.
AL East Notes: Bruce, Jays, Sox, Darvish, JDM, Hosmer, O’s
Some rumblings from around the AL East…
- The Blue Jays “were after” Jay Bruce during the season and are likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Bruce reportedly didn’t draw much trade interest prior to the July deadline, though the Mets were able to deal the slugger to Cleveland in August. It should be noted that the Jays were one of eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list, so it could be that Bruce nixed the idea of moving to a team that was only on the outskirts of the AL wild card chase and never reached the .500 mark all season. The Jays’ inclusion on Bruce’s list also doesn’t necessarily mean he wouldn’t consider them as a free agent destination — given the Blue Jays’ past interest in his services, Bruce could have been trying to leverage some extra financial incentive in the event of another trade offer. MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list predicted a match between Bruce and the Jays, as Toronto is sorely in need of a right fielder and a big left-handed bat.
- The Red Sox asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish prior to the trade deadline, Evan Drellich of NBCSports.com reports. It seems like this was mostly a cursory check-in, as talks fizzled since the Sox weren’t interested in moving a Major League player and the Rangers weren’t too interested in Boston’s prospects. It could be argued that the Sox have enough injury uncertainty in their pitching staff to require adding another veteran arm this winter, though Darvish doesn’t seem like a fit in free agency due to his big price tag and Boston’s more pressing need for offensive help.
- Speaking of that search for bats, both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are expected to draw attention from the Red Sox this winter, though “multiple evaluators around the game” tell the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that Martinez will be the bigger priority of the two. Martinez has the more consistent track record of production, he won’t cost a draft pick in compensation (as Hosmer will have a qualifying offer attached) and he hits left-handed pitching better than Hosmer does, plus Hosmer’s excellent 2017 numbers may have been boosted by the good fortune of a .351 BABIP. As Speier notes, however, the Red Sox could also aim lower and address several needs with the money required to sign Martinez or Hosmer.
- Lorenzo Cain would be an upgrade for the Orioles but the club isn’t likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. Baltimore is going to focus on pitching this winter, and the team will be looking at left-handed hitters when it comes to addressing its lineup needs.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
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The 2017 season was borderline disastrous for the Rangers, who fell from a 95-67 record in 2016 to a 78-84 mark and a third place finish in the division. Texas dramatically outperformed its projected record in that AL West-winning ’16 campaign, so some regression was expected, but the team fell further than most would’ve figured and now faces some heavy offseason lifting.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $73MM through 2022 (can opt out of remaining four years, $58MM after 2018 season)
- Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH: $62MM through 2020
- Rougned Odor, 2B: $48.5MM through 2022
- Cole Hamels, LHP: $28.5MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout of $20MM option for 2019)
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: $18MM through 2018
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
- A.J. Griffin (5.034) – $3.0MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.161) – $1.1MM
- Keone Kela (2.168) – $1.2MM
- Nick Martinez (2.149) – $2.0MM
- Ryan Rua (2.126) – $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Griffin, Martinez
Option Decisions
- Mike Napoli, 1B: $11MM club option with $2.5MM buyout; team has reportedly informed Napoli the option will be declined
- Martin Perez, LHP: $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
- Tony Barnette, RHP: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Free Agents
- Carlos Gomez, Andrew Cashner, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Grilli
[Texas Rangers Depth Chart | Texas Rangers Payroll Outlook]
More than half of the Rangers’ Opening Day roster struggled through some form of injury or unforeseen downturn in performance in 2017. Yu Darvish posted solid but unspectacular numbers for much of the first half, while Cole Hamels was sidelined more than two months with an oblique issue (to say nothing of his curiously evaporating strikeout rate). Jonathan Lucroy‘s power was nowhere to be found, and Rougned Odor batted .204 with a ghastly .252 OBP in the first season of a six-year contract extension that now looks questionable. The Rangers also lost Adrian Beltre and Carlos Gomez for prolonged stretches due to injury. The bullpen was an unmitigated disaster.
And yet, the Rangers clung to hope in the Wild Card race for much of the season, riding a breakout season from Elvis Andrus, a 41-homer campaign for Joey Gallo and quality results from Andrew Cashner for much of the season.
The Rangers’ foundation began showing some cracks — a particularly troubling development in Arlington considering the fact that the cross-state-rival Astros’ own young core elevated its game to a new level. The simultaneous nature of the Rangers’ decline and the Astros’ ascension has put Texas behind the eight ball as it looks to get back into contention in 2018 and beyond. While there have been many Rangers fans suggesting that the team needs to retool, if not all-out rebuild, GM Jon Daniels has been blunt in stating that his team is not rebuilding. So then, where do the Rangers turn to right the ship?
The most pressing need is on the pitching staff — specifically in the rotation. Hamels will return to lead the 2018 rotation but has just one guaranteed year remaining on his deal and looked more like a back-of-the-rotation arm than his usual self in 2017. His 6.4 K/9 rate was easily a career low, and his 9.7 percent swinging-strike rate was two points lower than his previous career-worst mark. He’ll be joined by Martin Perez, whose $6MM club option is a no-brainer even if his production looked like that of a fifth starter (4.82 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 185 innings).
Beyond that pair, the Rangers’ options are … uninspiring, to say the least. Cashner and trade acquisition Miguel Gonzalez are free agents, leaving the Rangers with Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin, Clayton Blackburn and prospect Yohander Mendez as 2018 options. (Former first-round pick Chi Chi Gonzalez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and may not be ready early in the season.) If the Rangers have any hope of contending, they’ll need to add at least one more established arm to the mix, and quite possibly two.
A pursuit of a Darvish reunion, to some extent, could conceivably be explored. The decision to trade him was a reluctant one from Daniels and his staff, and Hamels’ potential departure after the 2018 season leaves the team with virtually no certainty in the rotation after next year. However, the Rangers didn’t extend him when they had the chance, and the team’s financial outlook is ungainly enough that it seems like a genuine long shot that Darvish will be re-signed.
Texas has a significant amount of money on the books through 2020 thanks largely to Shin-Soo Choo’s albatross deal, and Daniels has suggested that the payroll will step back a bit from this past year’s Opening Day mark of $165MM — perhaps in the $155MM range, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. They’ll be off the hook for some of Prince Fielder‘s salary after reaching an agreement with the insurers of his contract, and the club currently projects to about a $118MM payroll including Fielder and some non-tender/trade candidates. A backloaded Darvish deal shouldn’t be entirely written off as a possibility, but it’s tough to align Daniels’ stated desire to scale back payroll with a five- or six-year free-agent deal for Darvish that could check in with an annual value in the $23-26MM range.
The Rangers will also be prominently linked to Japanese star Shohei Otani, though they’ll face competition from 29 other teams if and when he’s posted. Daniels acknowledged that the Rangers would be one of many in the mix if Otani becomes available this winter — a reality that looks less likely with the new revelation that the posting system agreement between MLB and NPB has expired — but reports have connected Texas to the young right-hander/slugger much more prominently over the summer. Speculating on any sort of “favorite”to land Otani seems futile right now, especially since his earning power is capped by MLB’s international signing guidelines, but Texas will be involved.
If not Darvish or Otani, the Rangers will have the money to invest elsewhere. Signing a big-ticket arm such as Jake Arrieta will present the same long-term payroll complications as Darvish. Second-tier names like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will be available but will very likely come with draft compensation attached, as each is a strong qualifying offer candidate. Texas could also look at more affordable overseas options, with Miles Mikolas and Hideaki Wakui each eyeing MLB jobs after strong showings in Japan. Mikolas, in particular, has been loosely linked to Texas (where he last pitched before going to the NPB).
It’s a similar, albeit not quite as grave situation in the bullpen. Lefties Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman will be back in 2018, as will righties Keone Kela and Matt Bush (though Bush will be coming off shoulder surgery and has been suggested as a potential rotation candidate). Hard-throwing Jose Leclerc is an option after averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in 45 2/3 frames this year, but he also averaged a jaw-dropping 7.9 walks per nine. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Ricardo Rodriguez and Nick Gardewine are all on the 40-man as well, but none impressed much as a big league reliever.
With no clear ninth-inning solution, Texas could conceivably take a run at a top-tier closer like Wade Davis or Greg Holland. But, again, with numerous needs up and down the roster — we’re not even to the position players yet — it seems likelier that Daniels & Co. will pursue quality assets in the second and third tier of the market. Brandon Morrow, Addison Reed and Mike Minor will probably have the most buzz on the second tier, while other options coming off strong seasons include Pat Neshek, Anthony Swarzak and old friend Tommy Hunter.
Turning to the lineup, the Rangers seem likely to let Robinson Chirinos shoulder the bulk of the load behind the dish. If they wish to push him back into a backup role, Welington Castillo and Alex Avila are options to serve as the primary receiver in Arlington next year. Both should command multi-year deals. Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley are among the veteran backups if Chirinos is the first choice.
Most, if not all of the infield is set. Andrus performed so well in 2017 that the notion of him opting out of his contract after the 2018 season is now perfectly plausible — if not likely. Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre will be back at the hot corner, and for better or worse, second base will go to Odor as he looks to rebound from that aforementioned .252 OBP. First base looks likely to go to Joey Gallo, though the team could also elect to play Gallo in an outfield corner or at DH if the decision is made to pursue a free-agent first baseman. Eric Hosmer is almost certainly going to be out of the Rangers’ comfort zone, but Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana and Yonder Alonso are all conceivable possibilities on the market.
In the outfield, there’s less certainty. Willie Calhoun, the centerpiece from the Darvish trade with the Dodgers, could split his time between left field and DH if the Rangers want to go with an intriguing, bat-first option. He lacks experience, but Calhoun obliterated upper minors pitching in 2017 and is a consensus top 100 prospect. Otherwise, the Rangers have Nomar Mazara, Delino Deshields and Choo as options in the outfield (and, in Choo’s case, at designated hitter).
That’s not a very inspiring unit, unless Mazara bounces back and makes good on his longtime elite prospect status. Given that he won’t turn 23 until April and nonetheless has two full big league years under his belt, that shouldn’t come as a shock if it happens. But, that’s a lot to bank on, and the Rangers could be well served by at least adding a veteran outfielder that can handle center field or a corner. A reunion with Carlos Gomez certainly makes sense, with Jon Jay and Jarrod Dyson also representing viable free-agent alternatives.
The elephant in the room for the Rangers is Jurickson Profar. The former No. 1 overall prospect missed two seasons with shoulder injuries and was reportedly unhappy that he wasn’t traded prior to the non-waiver deadline. Texas simply doesn’t have at-bats to give him, having inked Andrus and Odor to long-term commitments at the middle infield positions. Profar didn’t hit much in a limited opportunity as a utilityman, but he did hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
That the Rangers elected not to give Profar a September call-up was notable for two reasons. First and foremost, it served as an even stronger indicator that his time with the organization is quite likely running out. A second, less obvious benefit to casual onlookers is that it prevented Profar from reaching four full years of MLB service time. Because he stayed in the minors, the Rangers will be able to market three years of Profar’s arbitration eligibility rather than two when shopping him this winter. Any team with regular middle-infield bats could plausibly be considered a suitor. The Padres, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays and Brewers all strike me as speculative landing spots.
Profar’s trade value will be a fraction of what it was at its apex, though one can hardly fault the Rangers for not moving him when he was the game’s top-rated prospect. The team got extremely unlucky when it came to Profar’s health, but that doesn’t mean it can’t salvage some decent value here. While Profar won’t command a massive return, the Rangers could get a similar reclamation project for the rotation or possibly an MLB-caliber bullpen arm, among other lesser pieces.
If a payroll in the $155MM range is indeed the target, the Rangers may only have $35-40MM worth of open payroll capacity in 2018, depending on non-tender and trade scenarios. While that’s certainly enough space to fill multiple needs, it’s a fairly modest amount for a club that needs multiple starters, at least one reliever (likely more) and some outfield and/or first base help. Texas can always try to dump some of the remaining three years and $62MM of Choo’s contract on another American League club with DH at-bats open (e.g. the White Sox), but doing so would require paying down some of the commitment and providing prospect value to the acquiring team. Alternatively, they could try to facilitate some kind of bad contract exchange, taking on a similarly undesirable contract that at least filled a team need (e.g. Ian Kennedy).
Regardless of which route the Rangers actually take, they’ll need to add several pieces with a relatively limited cache of resources if the team truly does not intend to embark on any kind of significant rebuild this offseason. With a stacked Astros roster looming over the AL West, the Rangers face an uphill battle in returning to contention for a division title. But, it’s also difficult to fault any AL team for eschewing a full rebuild when only five American League clubs finished with a .500 record this season..
Rangers To Hire Don Wakamatsu As Bench Coach
The Rangers are slated to hire Don Wakamatsu to become their bench coach, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). He’ll join a reshuffled staff under manager Jeff Banister, who is looking to bounce back from his first losing season since taking over the Rangers dugout in 2015.
Wakamatsu, 54, has previously served as the bench coach in Texas, among his many other stops as a big league coach. He also skippered the Mariners in the 2009 and 2010 seasons and has been noted as a managerial candidate on several occasions since. Most recently, Wakamatsu was the bench coach for the Royals.
With the addition, the team will bump last year’s bench coach, Steve Buechele, to the first base coaching job. He had been the Rangers’ bench coach for each of the past three seasons.