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Phillies Claim Pedro León

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The Phillies announced they have claimed outfielder Pedro León off waivers from the Orioles. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR reported the claim prior to the official announcement. The O’s had designated him for assignment a few days ago. Philadelphia’s roster count climbs from 33 to 34.

León, 28 in May, was once a notable prospect but his stock has fallen in recent years. After he defected from Cuba, the Astros signed him via a $4MM signing bonus in January of 2021. He featured prominently on prospect lists for a few years but has hit a few roadblocks.

From 2021 to 2023, his results in the minors were passable but unexciting. He struck out in 29% of his plate appearances and produced a combined line of .233/.350/.419. That resulted in a 104 wRC+, indicating he was above league average but barely.

In 2024, he still struck out 27% of the time put up a huge .299/.372/.514 line in Triple-A. Even in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, was good enough for a 130 wRC+, or 30% better than league average. He got to make his major league debut that year but hit just .100/.143/.100 in a tiny sample of 21 plate appearances. 2025 was mostly a lost year, as he sprained the MCL in his left knee and was limited to just 22 Triple-A contests, with a .241/.312/.422 and wRC+ of 89 in 94 plate appearances.

The Astros had a roster crunch at season’s end, which bumped León to the waiver wire. The O’s grabbed him but bumped him off less than two weeks later due to their own roster crunch. For the Phils, it’s a pretty sensible addition. They have tons of roster space to work with at the moment. León still has options, meaning he doesn’t need to be guaranteed a spot on the big league roster. They are planning to remake their outfield this winter. Time will tell how that plays out, but it seems likely they will move on from Nick Castellanos while pursuing external additions. Even if there’s no spot for León when the dust settles, they can send him to Triple-A to see if he engineers a post-hype breakout.

Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images

Phillies, Bryan De La Cruz Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies signed outfielder Bryan De La Cruz to a minor league contract earlier this month, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Reporter Mike Rodriguez first mentioned the two sides were in agreement and noted that the client of Premier Talent Sports & Entertainment received an invite to major league camp next spring. The team hasn’t formally announced the pickup, though many clubs wait to announce their minor league deals and non-roster invitees in bulk later in the offseason.

De La Cruz showed promise early in his career with Miami, hitting .269/.318/.430 with 18 homers, 27 doubles and a pair of triples in his first 574 plate appearances from 2021-22. He popped 19 homers in 2023, but poor glovework and an OBP barely north of .300 made him a roughly replacement-level player. De La Cruz had a better start in ’24, connecting on 18 long balls through his first 454 turns at the plate. The Pirates, in need of affordable power as they hoped to make a Wild Card push, acquired him in a deal that immediately went south.

Pittsburgh, at the time, was acquiring a player with three-plus years of club control remaining. However, he hit so poorly with the Bucs (.200/.220/.294 in 168 plate appearances) that the Pirates simply moved on after the season. De La Cruz landed in Atlanta but struggled badly in 50 big league plate appearances and in 11 Triple-A games. He eventually went to the Yankees on a minor league deal and posted solid, if unspectacular numbers with their Triple-A club in Scranton: 368 plate appearances, 15 homers, eight steals, .271/.340/.456 (111 wRC+).

The righty-swinging De La Cruz has some power but an over-aggressive approach and suspect defensive skills in the corners. He also lacks the track record against left-handed pitching you’d prefer to see out of a corner outfielder. He decimated southpaws in a small sample during his rookie season, but dating back to 2022 he’s actually been slightly better versus righties (and well below-average against both overall).

There’s no harm in taking a non-roster look at an experienced outfielder who’ll play all of next season at 29, but De La Cruz is more of a depth signing than anything else. The Phils will be in the market for outfielders this winter, but it’d probably take multiple spring injuries and a big performance from De La Cruz for him to make the club. The likeliest scenario is that he heads to Triple-A Lehigh Valley next season with a shot to mash his way into the big league picture. If he’s able to do that, he’d be controllable through at least 2028, but there’s a long way to go before that future control is any kind of consideration.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Market

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We’re still in the nascent stages of the MLB offseason, with only a handful of notable free-agent signings and trades thus far. Still, with the GM Meetings now in the rearview mirror, teams have laid a fair bit of groundwork for the weeks and months ahead, both on the free agent and trade markets. Kyle Tucker stands as the offseason’s top free agent, and while there’s no indication he’s close to signing, there are also some hints falling into place about his potential market.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that some rival teams feel the Blue Jays are the likeliest landing spot for the four-time All-Star. They’ve been a popular speculative pick early on after a deep World Series run and with only one other major long-term commitment (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) on the books. Of course, Bo Bichette could be the priority, and it’s rare for any team to sign two free agents of that magnitude in a single offseason.

Tucker is a prominent enough star that some unexpected suitors figure to jump into the fray. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that while the Orioles are prioritizing pitching this winter, they haven’t ruled out a run at Tucker. Having already acquired Taylor Ward from the Angels, the addition of Tucker would free Baltimore to dangle young outfielders Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers on the trade market in hopes of securing some controllable arms. There are quite a few pitchers of note who could be on the block this winter, and both Cowser and Beavers would intrigue clubs looking to move arms. Both are former first-round picks. Cowser has four more seasons of club control, while Beavers only debuted late in 2025 and thus has a full slate of six years of club control remaining.

Baltimore stands as a fascinating fit. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Tucker was selected with the No. 5 overall pick. The O’s don’t have anything on the books long-term, other than Samuel Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM extension. That $8.375MM annual value isn’t going to be stand in the way of any other long-term deals. Beyond Basallo, Tyler O’Neill is the only other player signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the 2026 season. His three-year, $49.5MM contract runs through 2027.

The Orioles’ long-term financial outlook is so clean that there’s no true impediment to them signing Tucker and a notable a free agent starter. That’s not to say such a scenario is likely, of course, but Baltimore’s 2026 payroll currently projects for about $105MM, per RosterResource, and that’s before potential non-tenders or trades of Ryan Mountcastle ($7.8MM projected salary), Keegan Akin ($3MM projection), Yennier Cano ($1.8MM projection) and/or Alex Jackson ($1.8MM projection) prior to tomorrow’s 5pm ET non-tender deadline.

Depending on what happens with the Orioles’ arbitration class, they could realistically see next year’s projected payroll drop into the $93-100MM range by tomorrow evening. The opened the 2025 season with a payroll around $164.5MM. We’re certainly not accustomed to seeing Baltimore spend like this, but this is also only the second offseason under new owner David Rubenstein. Elias has already publicly stated that he is “fully prepared” to sacrifice draft picks by signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers, and for all the focus on pitching, it was reported more than a month ago that the O’s also covet an impact bat — likely in the outfield.

None of this is intended to frame the Orioles as any sort of favorite to sign Tucker, to be clear. Far from it. However, the fit and logic behind it are probably more sensible than one might think at first glance.

Other clubs will still loom in the market. Passan cites the Phillies as a possible landing spot, should Kyle Schwarber sign elsewhere. The Yankees have been linked to both Tucker and a Cody Bellinger reunion. GM Brian Cashman indicated this week that Trent Grisham’s decision to accept his qualifying offer will not impact the team’s pursuit of Bellinger. Presumably, then, that thinking extends to Tucker as well. The Dodgers have also been linked to Tucker, though Passan doubles down on his prior reporting that their interest would “likely” be on a shorter-term but high-AAV deal — the type we rarely see taken by the consensus top free agent in a given offseason.

Phillies, Liover Peguero Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league contract with former Pirates infielder Liover Peguero, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. He’ll presumably be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee next spring.

Peguero was once a touted young infielder whom the Pirates acquired from the D-backs in exchange for Starling Marte. He’s a former top-100 prospect who was once viewed as a possible shortstop of the future in Pittsburgh. Peguero’s bat has never come around, however. He’s seen action in four big league seasons but has mustered only a .227/.278/.368 slash line in 315 turns at the plate.

Peguero has also looked overmatched at the top minor league level. Outside of a late-2023 cameo in Triple-A where he smacked a pair of homers in 30 promising plate appearances, he’s produced well below-average numbers with the Pirates’ top affiliate in Indianapolis. He’s a .253/.317/.403 hitter in 888 plate appearances there, including a career-worst .247/.313/.375 showing in 75 games with Indy this season. Baseball America and other outlets have lauded his quality defensive tools but also noted a penchant for slipping into poor mechanical stretches that lead to far too many throwing errors.

For the Phillies, Peguero is a simple depth add — a roll of the dice on a former top prospect who doesn’t have a clear path to playing time with the big league club. Peguero could vie for a bench job if he has a big showing in camp, but with Trea Turner and Bryson Stott in the middle infield and Edmundo Sosa in a key utility role, he’ll head to spring training a ways down the depth chart.

Phillies Select Andrew Painter, Two Others

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The Phillies added three prospects to their 40-man roster on Rule 5 protection day: pitchers Andrew Painter and Alex McFarlane and outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Their roster count sits at 33.

Painter, 23 in April, was one of the most obvious calls to be kept out of the Rule 5 draft. The 6’7″ right-hander was arguably the best pitching prospect in MLB a couple seasons ago. Painter’s stock has dropped over the last two and a half seasons because of injuries and an underwhelming performance at Triple-A. The Phillies were never going to let an arm as talented as Painter go in the Rule 5 draft, though.

A first-round pick out of high school in 2021, Painter turned in a 1.56 earned run average over 22 starts during his first full professional season. Painter reached Double-A in his age-19 season. The Phillies were open to him pitching his way to the big leagues by the end of the ’23 campaign, but an elbow injury intervened. Painter eventually required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2024 minor league campaign (though he returned to get 15 2/3 innings of Arizona Fall League action).

Painter’s first season at the Triple-A level didn’t go well. He was tagged for a 5.40 ERA while walking almost 10% of batters faced. Painter gave up more than 1.5 home runs per nine innings. It wasn’t enough to earn a late-season debut, but he still sits around 97 MPH on his fastball and struck out a solid 23.4% of Triple-A opponents. He’s one of the better pitching prospects in the game and should debut next season. Baseball America ranks him the #2 prospect in the Philly system.

Rincones, 25 in March, is seventh on that list. He’s a left-handed hitting outfielder who turned in a .240/.370/.430 line across 506 Triple-A plate appearances. Rincones is a limited defender with concerns about his ability to hit lefty pitching, but he has big power in a 6’3″ frame and is clearly willing to wait until pitchers come into the zone.

McFarlane, a 24-year-old righty, is a former fourth-round pick out of the University of Miami. He spent much of the season in High-A, where he struggled to a 4.72 ERA through 74 1/3 frames. The minor league numbers aren’t encouraging, but the Phils still clearly like McFarlane as a developmental play and had plenty of roster space with which to work.

Nine Players Reject Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players — Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, and Shota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette, Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Padres righty Dylan Cease, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Padres righty Michael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTR broke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through the compensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Phillies Interested In Re-Signing Harrison Bader

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After a disappointing seasons that saw them earn a bye through the Wild Card series but immediately fall to the Dodgers in the NLDS, the Phillies are in an uncertain spot as the team figures to look very different by the time Opening Day rolls around. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents, while Nick Castellanos is expected to play elsewhere next year. While the team’s roster is in flux more than usual this winter, it’s long seemed likely that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would look to engage with some of those outgoing free agents.

That includes some players who haven’t been around quite as long as the team’s veteran core, as Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Lochlan March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that the team not only has interest in bringing free agent outfielder Harrison Bader back into the fold, but has also conveyed that to Bader’s camp already this winter.

“They know we’d like to bring him back,” Dombrowski said during last week’s GM Meetings, as relayed by March. “They also had expressed that they want to see what’s out there, because this was the best year he’s had, I think, in quite a while.”

That would seem to indicate that Bader won’t be jumping the market to sign right away, the way Josh Naylor did last night when he re-upped with the Mariners. Still, a reunion between Bader and the Phillies would make plenty of sense. After being dealt to the Phillies from the Twins at the trade deadline, Bader found another gear amid what was already a career year. In 50 games with Philadelphia, Bader slashed .300/.361/.463 (129 wRC+) to boost his season-long slash line to .277/.347/.449 (122 wRC+). Bader’s 7.8% walk rate was his best full-season mark since 2019, and while he struck out at an elevated 27.1% clip he made up for it by slugging a career-high 17 homers and 24 doubles.

This year’s performance from Bader was enough for him to profile as a solid regular in an outfield corner offensively, but even as his defensive metrics have slipped from once-elite levels he remains a solidly above average defender all across the grass, including center field. That adds a solid floor of production to the upside Bader flashed this year, and it’s been widely speculated that the 31-year-old will be able to land a multi-year guarantee this year on the back of his strong 2025, and MLBTR’s own prediction is that he’ll secure a two-year, $26MM guarantee.

For a team that enters the offseason with only Brandon Marsh locked into its outfield for next year, it’s easy to see why bringing back Bader would make plenty of sense. With that said, the Phillies are far from the only team that Bader could be a fit for. His old stomping grounds in both Queens and the Bronx could both use a center fielder, and teams like the Angels, Orioles, Guardians, Giants, and Royals are all known to be on the prowl for help either in center or the outfield generally this winter.

Some of those teams may be priced out of Bader’s market when all is said and done, and not all of them are perfect fits, but it’s a large enough cast of potential suitors that even with Philadelphia’s interest in a reunion Bader could have some incentive to wait out the market for at least a little while yet. Meanwhile, the Phillies will need to prioritize bigger ticket free agents like Schwarber and Realmuto themselves, whether that comes by way of re-signing them outright or finding another way to replace their production for 2026.

Phillies Receiving Trade Interest In Lefty Relievers

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The Phillies have gotten trade calls on left-handed relievers Matt Strahm, José Alvarado and Tanner Banks, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Philadelphia could leverage their bullpen depth for help in a different area of the roster.

All three pitchers are affordable and above-average performers. Alvarado, who’ll make $9MM next season, is the most talented of the group. He’s the hardest-throwing lefty reliever in the game, averaging more than 99 MPH on his fastball. The 30-year-old dominated early in the season and took over the closer role until MLB suspended him for 80 games because of a failed performance-enhancing drug test. That made him ineligible for postseason play, but the Phillies welcomed Alvarado back for the end of the regular season and were confident enough in his ability to exercise a 2026 club option.

Jhoan Duran is locked into the ninth inning now. Alvarado projects as Philly’s top lefty setup arm. He’ll be eligible for the playoffs in future seasons, so it’s unlikely the Phillies are putting much stock in the PED suspension moving forward. Alvarado also finished the year on the injured list with a forearm strain but is expected to be fine going into Spring Training.

An Alvarado trade would be relatively surprising. It’s easier to see the Phils swapping one of Strahm or Banks for someone at a position of greater need. Strahm, who turned 34 on Wednesday, vested a $7.5MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s coming off a 2.74 ERA with an above-average 27.3% strikeout rate across 66 appearances. Strahm owns a 2.71 mark over three seasons in Philadelphia and led the team with 22 holds this year.

While Strahm remains a quality leverage option, the Phillies could have some concern about his trend lines. His strikeout rate dropped six percentage points relative to 2024, when he fanned a third of opponents. He averaged a career-low 92.3 MPH on his fastball and has seen his swinging strike rate dip in consecutive years.

Banks, also 34, is the least well known of the Phils’ lefty trio. He didn’t reach the big leagues until his age-30 season and spent his first couple seasons on a rebuilding White Sox team. Banks was an under-the-radar deadline pickup in 2024 and has turned in a 3.24 ERA with a league average 22.5% strikeout rate over 91 2/3 innings in Philadelphia.

His fastball sits in the low-90s, but he attacks the strike zone with a pair of breaking pitches and held lefty batters to a putrid .172/.213/.243 slash line this year. Banks has held his own against right-handed hitters as well, but he’s the kind of pitcher whom teams generally prefer in a middle relief/specialist role rather than as a true high-leverage arm. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.2MM salary in his first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Teams seeking lefty relief help don’t have many free agent options. Gregory Soto is probably in line for the largest contract. He’s a power arm but has inconsistent command and has allowed more than four earned runs per nine in each of the past three seasons. Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, Justin Wilson, Taylor Rogers and Danny Coulombe should be limited to one-year deals based on their age. Sean Newcomb or Caleb Ferguson could command a cheap two-year deal but aren’t ideal high-leverage options. Steven Matz, Ryan Yarbrough and NPB returnees Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin are swing types.

It’s a weak group, which could lead teams to turn to the trade market. The Cardinals are likely to move former Phillie JoJo Romero, who is going into his final season of arbitration. The rebuilding Nationals could hear teams out on grounder specialist Jose A. Ferrer. The Rays are down to two years of control on Garrett Cleavinger and would surely entertain offers, but they’re going to have a huge asking price. Every contender could evaluate the bullpen market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners, Diamondbacks and Cubs are among the teams that could use another left-handed arm in particular.

While the Phillies have a good group of southpaws, they could use a more reliable right-handed setup arm than Orion Kerkering in front of Duran. They’re also in the market for outfield help and potentially a depth starter/swingman with Harrison Bader and Ranger Suárez hitting free agency. They’re prioritizing re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. They’d need to go outside the organization for a catcher if Realmuto signs elsewhere, as a Rafael Marchán/Garrett Stubbs pairing would be one of the worst offensive duos in the game. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski acknowledged at the GM Meetings that they’re evaluating an otherwise weak catching market as a backup plan in case Realmuto doesn’t return (link via Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer).

Phillies Notes: Rojas, Harper, Coaching Staff

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The Phillies are making center fielder Johan Rojas available in trade conversations, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. That’s not especially surprising, as the 25-year-old spent the final two months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Rojas has appeared in each of the past three big league seasons. He has primarily worked as a fourth outfielder. He’s an elite athlete who hasn’t shown much with the bat. The righty-hitting Rojas owns a .252/.294/.340 slash in just under 700 career plate appearances. He rarely walks and hits a lot of soft ground-balls that limit his power upside. Rojas hasn’t been good against pitchers of either handedness, so the Phillies haven’t been able to maximize his production by using him as a short-side platoon player.

While there’s a limited offensive ceiling, Rojas is one of the sport’s best defensive outfielders. He’s among the fastest players in baseball and has a plus-plus arm. Both Defensive Runs Saved (+22) and Statcast (+21) have valued him more than 20 runs better than average in a little over 1700 career innings. Rojas ranks among the top 15 center fielders in MLB in both metrics over the past three seasons. That’s despite playing fewer innings at the position than all but Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho among those who ranked above him.

Despite the glove, it appears Rojas is falling out of favor in Philly. They acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline to bring in a better glove-first, righty-hitting center fielder. Bader is now a free agent, but it doesn’t seem the Phillies want to give that spot back to Rojas. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski acknowledged yesterday that he’s looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder again this offseason even as they’re apparently making Rojas available to other clubs. He still has one minor league option remaining, so the Phils could send him back to Triple-A if nothing comes together.

A potential Rojas trade is part of a larger overhaul in the Philadelphia outfield. Nick Castellanos is almost certainly going to be traded or released. Gelb reported as much last month, and Dombrowski acknowledged yesterday that “sometimes a change of scenery can be beneficial for people” when asked about that situation. Max Kepler is unlikely to be re-signed, and the Phillies will want to get former first-round pick Justin Crawford into the mix early in the year. Dombrowski told reporters that the Phillies would be comfortable with Crawford as a center fielder, but most public scouting reports feel he projects better in left. He and Brandon Marsh are the likeliest options to start on Opening Day, yet they’ll need a right fielder and probably a righty-hitting fourth outfielder if they move on from Rojas.

Moving Bryce Harper back to the outfield is apparently not a consideration. For the past few seasons, Harper has said he’s willing to play right field if it enables the Phils to land a big bat at first base. Dombrowski downplayed the club’s interest in doing that.

“He’s actually (said) that for a couple years now, and we really appreciate the aspect of it, but we really look at him as a first baseman at this time,” Dombrowksi said (link via Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer). “I’m sure he could go out there, but he’s played first well. He’s a good first baseman and continues to get better. We really like our club with him there, so I think he is more of our first baseman.”

Harper has been a full-time first baseman over the past two seasons. Public defensive metrics graded him highly in 2024, though his numbers fell back to league average this year. The Phils could get him a few more designated hitter at-bats if Kyle Schwarber signs elsewhere. Harper remains a solid athlete and probably would have the range to play a decent right field, but the Phillies have wanted to avoid using him out there since he underwent elbow surgery over the 2022-23 offseason.

Dombrowski also touched on the relationship between the organization and the two-time MVP. There was a bit of controversy when Harper took umbrage with the executive’s comment that his ’25 campaign was not “an elite season like he has had in the past.” Harper said in late October that he hadn’t heard from Dombrowski personally. That apparently has changed, as the front office leader said the sides have “had a nice conversation, and everything went well.”

In one other piece of Phillies news, the club announced the hiring of Edwar Gonzalez as an assistant hitting coach. They had a vacancy in that role after Dustin Lind departed to accept the lead hitting coach job with the Orioles. It’s an internal promotion for the 42-year-old, who has spent the past three seasons in the organization. Gonzalez had been the club’s assistant director of hitting development and has one season of experience on an MLB coaching staff, as he spent the ’22 season as an assistant hitting coach for the Marlins. He and Rafael Pena will work as assistants under top hitting instructor Kevin Long.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

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