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Orioles Claim Will Robertson, Drew Romo

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The Orioles have claimed outfielder Will Robertson off waivers from the Pirates, according to Jake Rill of MLB.com. The O’s have also claimed catcher Drew Romo off waivers from the Rockies, according to an announcement from Colorado. There wasn’t any previous indication these players were on the wire but it appears their respective clubs tried to sneak them through waivers in order to open 40-man spots. Baltimore’s 40-man had a vacancy but they will need to open one spot to make these two claims.

Robertson, 28 this month, is a popular bet for a late-bloomer breakout. This is the fourth roster he’s been on in the past six months. A fourth-round pick of the Blue Jays back 2019, he wasn’t really on the prospect radar as he climbed the minor league ladder. He would show some occasional pop but also struck out about 30% of the time, which limited his overall offensive production. He has occasionally played in center field but has mostly been a corner-only guy, meaning he needs to hit to provide value.

He seemed to find another gear in 2025. He put up good numbers in Triple-A to start the year, enough that the Jays called him up to the big leagues in June. He was designated for assignment in July and went to the White Sox in a cash deal. Between the Jays and the Sox, he hit just .129/.173/.143 in the majors, but in a tiny sample of just 75 plate appearances.

In his 354 Triple-A plate appearances between the two clubs, he lowered his strikeout rate to 24.9%, still a high number but a nice drop for him personally. He also drew walks at a strong 13.6% clip and hit 20 home runs. All told, he had a .289/.387/.571 line at Triple-A this year. That production translates to a 148 wRC+, indicating he was 48% above league average at that level.

Despite that strong production, his age and lack of prospect pedigree make him a fringe roster player. The White Sox put Robertson on waivers in October. The Pirates claimed him and held him for a couple of months before trying to pass him through waivers themselves. The Orioles have swooped in to grab him.

His path to playing time in Baltimore isn’t great right now. The Orioles have an outfield mix that consists of Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Jeremiah Jackson, Leody Taveras, Heston Kjerstad, Reed Trimble and others. Robertson still has options, so he can be stashed in Triple-A as depth, but the Orioles often claim players off waivers and then later try to pass them through themselves. If they were to try that with Robertson at a later date and succeed, they could keep him in the system in a non-roster capacity.

Romo, 24, was once a prospect of some note. The Rockies took him 35th overall in 2020. As a switch-hitting catcher who was considered a strong defender, he got a lot of attention from prospect evaluators. Baseball America ranked him #80 in the league back in 2023.

His stock has dropped in the past couple of years, however. He appeared to become prone to chase in 2024. He only walked in 4.3% of his plate appearances in Triple-A that year. His .297/.339/.499 line and 97 wRC+ that year weren’t disastrous but his results were propped up by a .331 batting average on balls in play. Going into 2025, BA ranked him as just the 17th-best prospect in the entire Rockies’ system.

Here in 2025, his results were even worse. He slashed .264/.329/.409 for a 75 wRC+ in Triple-A, despite being aided by a .338 BABIP. He’s also received brief major league looks over the past two seasons but has a dismal .167/.196/.222 line in 56 plate appearances.

The trends aren’t great, which is surely why the Rockies tried to pass him through waivers today. For the O’s, they’re grabbing a guy who is still fairly young and was a Top 100 prospect a couple of years ago. Even if his offense doesn’t improve, he’s a glove-first catcher with options and can therefore be kept in Triple-A as depth. The O’s project to have Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo splitting the catching duties, with Romo and Maverick Handley also on the 40-man.

Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images

Pirates Claim Marco Luciano

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The Pirates have claimed infielder/outfielder Marco Luciano off waivers from the Giants, per a team announcement. Pittsburgh’s claim of the former top prospect fills their 40-man roster. The Giants hadn’t previously announced a DFA for Luciano but were clearly trying to pass him through waivers to free up some roster space.

Originally signed as a teenager out of his native Dominican Republic, the now-24-year-old Luciano spent five consecutive seasons on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect lists, topping out at No. 12 in the game in the 2020-21 offseason. He was a steady producer throughout much of his time in the low minors, but Luciano’s bat stalled out in Triple-A and strikeouts have become a major concern.

In 226 games (1017 plate appearances) at the Triple-A level, Luciano has managed only a .227/.351/.401 batting line — despite those plate appearances coming in an exorbitantly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League environment. He’s also struck out an alarming 29.6% of the time in Triple-A, including a 30.6% clip this past season. He hasn’t fared any better in brief major league looks, hitting a combined .217/.286/.304 with a 35.7% strikeout rate in 126 plate appearances between the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He spent all of 2025 in Triple-A.

Luciano was at one point considered the potential shortstop of the future in San Francisco — an heir to longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford. The Giants began to shift away from that possibility in 2024 when they got Luciano some time at second base in Triple-A. Last offseason’s signing of Willy Adames to a seven-year deal officially pulled the plug on any hope that Luciano could eventually claim that spot. The Giants gave him one Triple-A game at first base in 2025 and otherwise played him exclusively as a left fielder or designated hitter.

Luciano is out of minor league options, so the Pirates won’t be able to send him to Triple-A without first passing him through waivers themselves. If he makes it to spring training on the 40-man roster, he’ll have a chance to claim a bench role in Pittsburgh if he can put together a strong performance during Grapefruit League play.

The Pirates don’t have set options at shortstop, second base or in left field, so Luciano could theoretically compete for playing time at any of those spots — though Pittsburgh’s press release announcing the move referred to him solely as an outfielder. He’ll join newly acquired Jhostynxon Garcia as a righty-swinging corner outfield option on the depth chart, though Garcia has a far better chance of carving out regular playing time.

Mets Claim Cooper Criswell

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The Mets have claimed righty Cooper Criswell off waivers from the Red Sox, reports ESPN’s Jorge Castillo. Boston designated him for assignment just yesterday as a corresponding move after acquiring Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. (Boston needed 40-man spots for both Oviedo and minor league lefty Tyler Samaniego.) The Mets have not yet announced the claim, but they currently have a pair of 40-man vacancies, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move.

Though Criswell isn’t yet eligible for arbitration, the Sox had signed the right-hander to a fully guaranteed $800K deal for the upcoming season. As noted here at the time he signed, Boston’s hope in doing so was likely that Criswell’s lack of minor league options and a slightly higher-than-usual salary for a pre-arbitration player would help him pass through waivers so they could keep him as non-roster depth.

That didn’t work out for the Red Sox, but we’ve increasingly seen clubs take this tactic with fringe 40-man players who lack minor league options as a means of attempting to bolster their stash of experienced players in the upper minors. The Mets themselves could very well try the same with Criswell later in the offseason as their 40-man roster fills up.

The 29-year-old Criswell appeared in seven games for the Sox in 2025, logging 17 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball but with only an 11.3% strikeout rate. He’s totaled 154 2/3 innings across parts of five major league seasons and carries a career 4.48 ERA, 16.7% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate between the Angels, Rays and Red Sox. He also tossed 65 2/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball for the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Worcester this past season, working primarily as a starter.

If Criswell survives the offseason and spring training on the 40-man roster, he’d likely be looking at a swingman role if the Mets consider carrying him on the Opening Day squad. New York currently has Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat and Christian Scott ahead of Criswell on the rotation depth chart. The Mets are also likely to further add to that group via free agency and/or trade, though it’s also possible that some of those names could be subtracted via trade. Senga, in particular, has seen his name pop up in recent rumors.

Braves, Ben Gamel Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and outfielder Ben Gamel have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The Wasserman client will presumably also receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Gamel, 34 in May, didn’t make it to the majors in 2025. That was the first time since 2015 that he didn’t appear in the show. He signed minor league deals with the Tigers and Angels but was limited by injuries to just 52 minor league contests. He put up a hearty .281/.402/.539 line in those games but didn’t get called up.

Over his big league career, he has generally been a decent hitter. In 2,320 plate appearances, he has a .252/.334/.382 line. That translates to a 96 wRC+, indicating he has been just 4% below league average overall. A lefty swinger, he’s been a bit better with the platoon advantage but doesn’t have massive splits. He has a 98 wRC+ against righties and an 88 wRC+ versus southpaws. He has experience at all three outfield slots and first base but is primarily a left fielder.

Atlanta currently projects to have an outfield alignment featuring Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar. The designated hitter spot is open but will likely be used to rotate catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin through there. Given Acuña’s injury history and Profar’s poor defense, they could also get some DH time, which could open up some outfield time.

Eli White and Michael Siani are on the roster and project for bench roles, with Vidal Bruján and Brett Wisely around as infielder/outfielders. Siani is optionable, so it’s possible Gamel could earn a bench job and push Siani into regular playing time in Triple-A. Even if Gamel doesn’t break camp with the club, he could head to Triple-A and be ready to come up in the event of an injury.

Photo courtesy of Erik Williams, Imagn Images

Red Sox, Pirates Swap Johan Oviedo And Jhostynxon García In Five-Player Trade

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The Red Sox and Pirates announced a five-player trade on Thursday evening. Starter Johan Oviedo heads to Boston alongside lefty reliever Tyler Samaniego and minor league catcher Adonys Guzman. Pittsburgh gets rookie outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia and A-ball pitching prospect Jesus Travieso. Boston needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster, so they designated righty Cooper Criswell for assignment. Pittsburgh’s roster count drops to 39.

Oviedo and Garcia are the centerpieces of the deal on either side. The 27-year-old Oviedo is a 6’6″ right-hander who has been a capable back-end starter since the Pirates acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline. He’d been a swingman with the Cardinals for his first couple seasons but has stepped into a full-time rotation role for the Bucs. Oviedo took the ball 32 times and ranked second on the team with 177 2/3 innings in 2023. He posted a 4.31 earned run average with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates.

While Oviedo stayed healthy throughout the ’23 season, he reported elbow soreness at year’s end. That proved a precursor to Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 campaign. Oviedo had a shot to return for the start of ’25 but suffered a lat strain while building up early in Spring Training. He was shut down for a few months and didn’t make his season debut until the beginning of August. He took the ball nine times down the stretch, turning in a 3.57 ERA over 40 1/3 innings.

Oviedo’s return was a mixed bag. He recorded a career-best 24.7% strikeout rate while getting whiffs at a solid 11.7% clip. The stuff looked as sharp as it’d been before his successive arm injuries. Oviedo averaged 95.5 MPH on his fastball and got good results on both an upper-80s slider and mid-70s curveball. The slider has been a plus pitch throughout his career and had a little more glove-side movement. His height also allows him to get more than seven feet of extension, so his already above-average velocity should play up.

While there are clearly things to like, Oviedo remains a work in progress. He walked three batters in seven of his nine starts, issuing free passes at an untenable 13.5% rate overall. That inefficiency kept him from working deep into games. Oviedo only once pitched into the sixth inning and didn’t complete six full frames in any appearance. It’s fair to expect some rust in his command after an 18-month absence, but throwing strikes has always been an issue. Oviedo routinely posted double-digit walk rates in the minors and issued free passes at a 10.6% rate over a full season in 2023.

The other question is whether he’ll be able to handle left-handed hitters. His changeup is a clear fourth pitch. Lefties managed a solid .244/.341/.436 line with 14 home runs in 419 plate appearances a couple years ago. Oviedo had much better results against lefties in 2025 (.151/.259/.301), but that came in a small sample with an unimpressive 19:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Oviedo has four-plus years of MLB service. He’s under arbitration control for two seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2MM salary. He still has a minor league option remaining and doesn’t need to open the season on the active roster. He’ll cross the five-year service threshold when he logs another 93 days on the big league active roster or injured list. The Sox would no longer be able to send him to the minors without his consent at that point.

They hope that won’t be a consideration. They liked Oviedo enough to give up one of their top upper minors hitting talents, gambling that they can unlock another level of consistency in the process. That suggests he’s got a good chance to slot behind Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello in Alex Cora’s rotation. The Sox should welcome Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval back from injury. Prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early debuted late in the season, while former top prospect Kyle Harrison remains in the mix.

Garcia, 23 next week, should get everyday at-bats in Pittsburgh. He didn’t have a clear path to playing time in a crowded Boston outfield but projects as the starting left fielder for the Pirates. The right-handed hitter got a cup of coffee at Fenway Park last August, picking up a hit and two walks over nine plate appearances. He otherwise divided the season between the top two levels of the minor leagues.

Known for his excellent nickname “The Password,” Garcia combined for 21 home runs with a robust .267/.340/.470 batting line across 489 plate appearances. It’s strong bottom line production for a 22-year-old, though the Sox might have had concerns about his approach. The Venezuela native struck out at a 29.1% clip while chasing more than 35% of pitches outside the strike zone over his 81 Triple-A games. The pure hit tool is a red flag, but he has topped 20 homers in consecutive minor league seasons.

Baseball America credited Garcia with above-average power and bat speed in recently ranking him the #6 prospect in the Boston system. BA writes that Garcia is a serviceable defensive center fielder despite having only average speed. He’s probably better suited in the corner opposite Bryan Reynolds but could play up the middle on days when Oneil Cruz is unavailable.

The Pirates control Garcia for at least six seasons. He still has a pair of minor league options, so they could send him back to Triple-A without issue if his approach needs further refinement. There are some parallels to last winter’s acquisition of Spencer Horwitz and the 2024 Quinn Priester/Nick Yorke deadline swap (also with the Red Sox). Pittsburgh leverages their rotation depth for a controllable upper level bat. Garcia arguably has the highest ceiling of that trio, and this surely won’t be the only lineup addition of the winter for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

While it’s mostly an Oviedo/Garcia framework, the teams also swapped a few prospects. Samaniego, who turns 27 in January, might factor into the Boston bullpen next season. The former 15th-round pick tossed 26 1/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball at the Double-A level this year. He fanned 28% of opponents with a sub-6% walk rate. Pittsburgh selected him onto the 40-man roster last month to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He still has a full slate of options and is probably ticketed for Triple-A Worcester.

Guzman, who turned 22 today, was Pittsburgh’s fifth-round pick out of the University of Arizona over the summer. The right-handed hitting catcher has only played one game in Low-A. Baseball America credited him with plus arm strength and some power to left field in their draft report. He’s a long-term development play behind the dish.

The Pirates round out their side of the deal with Travieso. He’s an 18-year-old righty who signed with Boston as an amateur out of Venezuela in 2024. He’s listed at 5’11” and has yet to garner much prospect attention, but he struck out nearly 32% of opponents over seven games in Low-A late in the season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Red Sox and Pirates agreed to a five-player deal involving Oviedo and Garcia. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the full trade. Respective images courtesy of Charles Leclaire and Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images.

Red Sox Designate Cooper Criswell For Assignment

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The Red Sox designated right-hander Cooper Criswell for assignment. They needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster to finalize this evening’s five-player trade with Pittsburgh.

Criswell and the Sox worked out an $800K contract last month. While the righty locked in a fully guaranteed salary a little above the MLB minimum, that also pointed to a likely offseason DFA. It has become increasingly common for teams to work out slightly above minimum deals with players whom they’re considering dropping from the 40-man roster. The salary could serve as a minor deterrent for another team to place a waiver claim. Perhaps more importantly, it gives the player incentive to accept a minor league assignment if they clear.

The 29-year-old Criswell was outrighted by the Rays during the 2022 season. That gives him the right to decline future outrights in his career. Criswell might have elected free agency had the Sox ran him through waivers earlier in the winter. It’s less likely that he’d walk away from guaranteed money, so the Sox could stash him in Triple-A if no other team places a claim.

Criswell had a decent season in a swing role in 2024. He logged a career-high 99 1/3 innings with a 4.08 earned run average. He doesn’t have huge velocity or swing-and-miss potential, but he threw strikes and got a decent number of ground-balls. He didn’t get nearly as much big league work this past season. Criswell logged 17 2/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA over seven appearances. He spent the rest of the season at Triple-A Worcester, pitching to a 3.70 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate across 65 2/3 frames.

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reported the move before the club announcement.

Phillies Re-Sign Michael Mercado To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have re-signed right-hander Michael Mercado to a minor league deal, reports Steve Potter of philliesbaseballfan.com. Presumably, the righty will also receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Mercado, 27 in April, was just non-tendered last month. He hadn’t yet qualified for arbitration but the non-tender deadline is the only day in the year when a player can be sent directly to free agency without being exposed to waivers. By taking that path with Mercado, the Phils gave him a chance to sign with the other 29 clubs but it also gave them the chance to quickly bring him back in a non-roster capacity.

The Phils initially acquired Mercado from the Rays in November of 2023. He was about to become a minor league free agent at that time but the Phils wanted him enough that they stopped that from happening. They sent right-hander Adam Leverett and cash considerations to Tampa and immediately gave Mercado a 40-man spot before he could hit the open market.

Since being acquired, he has worked both as a starter and a reliever for the Phils, with some strikeout stuff but also a lack of control. He has thrown 118 2/3 Triple-A innings over the past two seasons, allowing 3.11 earned runs per nine while striking out 22.9% of batters faced but issuing walks at a 12.5% clip. An 80.6% strand rate seemed to help him out with run prevention, leading to a less optimistic 4.48 FIP. Regardless, the Phils gave him some occasional big league looks, which he didn’t take advantage of. He currently has an 11.81 ERA in 16 big league innings.

Mercado is clearly not fully established in the majors yet but the Phillies presumably like his arsenal. He had averaged 95.8 miles per hour with his fastball in his big league career while also featuring a cutter, splitter, curveball and changeup. He’ll give the club some depth as he looks to earn his way back onto the roster. If he eventually gets his spot back, he still has one minor league option and just a handful of service days. That means he can still provide roster flexibility and cheap control.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Re-Sign Tommy Henry To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks and left-hander Tommy Henry have reunited on a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so it’s possible this is a two-year deal, though the tracker doesn’t specify that.

Henry, now 28, has been in the Diamondbacks’ organization since being drafted in 2019. He made it to the big leagues in 2022 and has spent the past few years serving as an optionable swingman, working both as a starter and a reliever.

He exhausted his final option in 2025, which was going to make it tougher for him to hold a roster spot going forward, even before his surgery complicated things. The Snakes designated him for assignment last month in order to open roster space for prospects they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 draft. A few days later, Henry was non-tendered. That sent him to free agency without being exposed to waivers and allowed the Diamondbacks to bring him back in a non-roster capacity.

Henry will spent at least the first half of 2026 rehabbing. He could be back on the mound late in the year but missing the entire season is also a possibility. It’s anyone’s guess what the Arizona pitching staff will look like in the future. Currently, they definitely need arms, as guys like Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk and Justin Martínez are also facing lengthy surgery rehabs at the moment. The team still has an entire offseason to make moves and then the 2026 campaign could go any number of ways.

Whenever Henry is recovered, he can try to earn his way back onto the roster. In his career, he has logged 181 big league innings, allowing 5.07 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 17.4% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.4% clip and induced grounders at a 39.3% rate. If he gets a roster spot at some point down the line, he is out of options but has just barely two years of service time, meaning he is still cheap and controllable.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Twins To Sign Grant Hartwig To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are going to sign right-hander Grant Hartwig to a minor league deal, reports Darren Wolfson of KSTP. The ACES client will also receive an invite to major league camp in spring training.

Hartwig, 28 this month, has a limited big league track record. He tossed 42 innings for the Mets over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He allowed 24 earned runs, giving him a 5.14 ERA. He struck out 18% of batters faced and issued walks at a 10.1% rate, both subpar figures, but induced grounders on 46.5% of balls in play. He averaged in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker while also mixing in a cutter, slider and changeup.

In June of the latter campaign, he required surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee. He was non-tendered at the end of the year and re-signed on a minor league deal. In July of 2025, he headed overseas to play for Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He posted a 3.65 ERA for the Tigers in a small sample of 12 1/3 innings.

As a minor leaguer, Hartwig has generally been able to get strikeouts but hasn’t featured pristine control. Dating back to the start of 2023, he has thrown 94 2/3 innings on the farm, mostly at Triple-A. In that time, he has a 4.47 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate. In 2025, he was out to a good start, having tossed 23 2/3 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate.

That was enough to get him interest in Japan but he didn’t make the most of the opportunity there. In his limited sample of work with the Tigers, he only struck out 15.1% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 13.2% clip. It’s always tough to find meaning in that kind of sample size but that should be especially true about a guy making a midseason move from MLB to Japan.

For the Twins, they stripped down their bullpen at last year’s deadline. They sent out Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart and Danny Coulombe. It’s unclear whether they plan for 2026 to be a sort of reset year or if they plan to reinvest in the roster in an attempt to compete. Either way, they will need some fresh bullpen arms. If Hartwig can crack the roster, he is still optionable and has less than a year of service time. That means he can provide roster flexibility and affordable control for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

Reds Re-Sign Emilio Pagán

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December 4th: The Reds officially announced the Pagán signing today.

December 3rd: The Reds are reportedly bringing back closer Emilio Pagán on a two-year, $20MM contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the Ballengee Group client to opt out after next season. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster count will climb to 39 once the signing is finalized.

Pagán returns on another two-year deal after one of the best seasons of his career. The Reds surprisingly signed him to a $16MM contract over the 2023-24 offseason. There was obvious risk in adding a fly-ball pitcher to work in high-leverage spots at one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly parks. Pagán didn’t post great numbers and missed a couple months with a lat injury in 2024, so he had an easy call to bypass an opt-out and return to Cincinnati.

This year went a lot more smoothly. Pagán took over the closer role from Alexis Díaz and recorded a career-high 32 saves. He did blow six save chances but had a strong season overall, pitching to a 2.88 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings. He punched out 30% of opponents against a solid 8.1% walk rate. Pagán avoided any injuries and pitched well against left- and right-handed batters alike. He got swinging strikes at a strong 14.6% clip while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball.

Pagán has always had an elite strikeout and walk profile. He hasn’t had the year-by-year consistency of the sport’s best closers, though. The fly-ball approach still leaves him vulnerable to the home run ball. Pagán has only had one season in his nine-year career in which he has allowed fewer home runs than the average reliever. He has surrendered 85 home runs since entering the league in 2017. That’s 19 more than any other reliever over that stretch.

The longball is always going to be an issue, but Pagán sticking around as a high-leverage reliever despite the homers is a testament to his effectiveness in other areas. He’s a reliable control artist with above-average velocity. His splitter gives him an option to attack opposite-handed hitters, while he mixes in a cutter as his main offspeed pitch versus righty batters. Pagán has generally been durable outside of the aforementioned lat strain. He has topped 50 innings in every other full schedule of his career, including six years with 60+ frames.

Pagán’s strong walk year earns him a nice contract for his age 35-36 seasons. The guarantee narrowly beats our two-year, $16MM prediction. Pagán also gets the upside of the out clause, which allows him to get back to free agency if he has an equally strong ’26 season. Another two-year deal at age 36 would be rare but not unprecedented, so it’s not out of the question that he pitches well enough to consider that route.

Assuming Terry Francona slots Pagán back in the ninth inning, he’ll pitch behind a solid setup group that includes Tony Santillan, Connor Phillips and Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati should add a left-hander at some point. The only southpaw who’d be in their bullpen at the moment is Sam Moll, who was up and down from Triple-A Louisville throughout the year.

Cincinnati has $32.275MM in guaranteed contracts to six players: Pagán, Hunter Greene, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Trevino, Ben Rortvedt, and Moll. They owe $15MM in dead money ($12MM salary and a $3MM option buyout payable after the World Series) to Jeimer Candelario. Cincinnati has a sizable arbitration class which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost around $45MM. They’d owe another $8-10MM in minimum salary players, which puts their current commitments in the $100-105MM range. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said he expects payroll to be around the $116MM at which they opened the 2025 season.

That’d leave them with roughly $15-20MM to spend. They’re in the market for an impact bat and reportedly trying to bring Kyle Schwarber back to the Cincinnati area. That would surely cost more than $20MM annually. It’s possible ownership would make an exception for someone like Schwarber or Pete Alonso. The front office could also look to trade a player or two from the arbitration class to free up more spending capacity if they feel they’ve got a strong chance to sign an elite hitter.

Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported that the Reds and Pagán had reached a two-year, $20MM deal with an out. Image courtesy of Imagn Images.

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