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Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

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The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

Red Sox Not Interested In Trading Justin Turner

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Red Sox infielder Justin Turner has apparently drawn trade interest, per Rob Bradford of WEEI, but rival clubs are being told the Sox have no interest in trading him.

It’s unsurprising that clubs would have interest in Turner, who has been one of the most consistently above-average hitters in the majors for a decade now. He broke out in 2014 with a .340/.404/.493 showing for the Dodgers, producing a 158 wRC+ that indicated he was 58% better than league average at the plate. In each season since, his wRC+ has finished somewhere between 154 and 123.

Turner signed with the Red Sox this year after a nine-year stretch in Los Angeles. It was officially a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee, with an $8.3MM salary this year followed by a $13.4MM player option that comes with a $6.7MM buyout. Since signing that deal, he’s having another fairly typical season for him, despite now being 38 years old. He’s hitting .289/.359/.481 on the year for a wRC+ of 127, still 27% better than the league-average hitter. He’s done that while providing a bit of defensive versatility, occasionally slotting in at each non-shortstop position on the infield.

Given that he’s having yet another strong season, he seems a lock to turn down that player option and return to free agency as long as he’s stays healthy. Given the high price of the buyout, exactly half of the option price, he’d only need to top $6.7MM on the open market in order to come out ahead. That makes him effectively a rental piece with the deadline now just a few days away.

Last year, the Red Sox were in a similar spot to this year, just a bit outside of contention. On August 1 of 2022, they were 52-52, three games out of a playoff spot. They ended up doing a mix of buying and selling, flipping Jake Diekman and Christian Vázquez but holding onto Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez and Rich Hill, while also bringing in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer. That didn’t work out as they ended up fading and missing the playoffs.

Their current 55-47 record puts them in a better spot than last year, though their place in the standings is only modestly better, as they are a game and a half out of a playoff spot. It’s understandable why other teams might call on Turner, hoping the Red Sox would be open to a similar buy-sell hybrid that could make him available, an approach that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has admitted is likely.

How the club ultimately plays the deadline remains to be seen. Just because Turner isn’t available, doesn’t mean other players won’t be. Boston already flipped Enrique Hernández to the Dodgers and has gotten interest on Adam Duvall. It seems likely the club will look to add some pitching depth and they still have a few days to do so. Trading Turner could have been one avenue to getting another arm or two, but it doesn’t seem that is in the club’s plans.

Pirates Receiving Trade Interest In Hedges, Hill, Holderman

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July 28: Catcher Austin Hedges has also drawn trade interest, Heyman tweets. While the veteran backstop provides nothing on the offensive side of the game — Hedges is a career .189/.246/.323 hitter who’s batting .181/.234/.231 this year — he’s long been regarded as a premier defender at a critical position. A club looking to add a defensive-minded backup could perhaps have interest in Hedges, who’s earning $5MM this season and still has about $1.77MM of that sum still to be paid out.

Moving Hedges makes sense for a Pirates club with two of the sport’s top catching prospects, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, both ready for a legitimate audition in the Majors. Both are already on the big league roster, and Davis has seen some action in right field to get his bat in the lineup. A Hedges trade would clear out more playing time for each youngster. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke with Hedges yesterday about the possibility of a trade and his shift toward a mentor role for the younger Davis  and Rodriguez. Both young backstops lauded Hedges for his eagerness to take them under his wing as they continue their development.

July 27: The Pirates have received some trade interest in starter Rich Hill and setup man Colin Holderman, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Hill, in particular, seems a good bet to move within the next few days.

Pittsburgh signed the 43-year-old southpaw to a one-year, $8MM free agent contract last offseason. Hill has continued to offer the kind of back-of-the-rotation production not far off that of his past few seasons. He owns a 4.82 ERA over 21 starts and 114 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate is a bit below average, while he’s issuing walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip.

It’s not overwhelming production, but teams have valued Hill’s general stability at the back of a staff and veteran clubhouse presence. He’s been on six teams within the past five seasons, generally working at the end of a contending rotation.

For a while, the Bucs seemed as if they’d stick in the postseason picture. They’ve gone cold of late and fallen out of the mix, setting the stage for at least a moderate sell-off. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana was shipped off to the Brewers this afternoon. Hill is in the same spot as an impending free agent who could have modest appeal to a contender. He’s due around $2.67MM from here forward.

The Pirates can set a loftier ask on Holderman. Acquired from the Mets for Daniel Vogelbach at last summer’s deadline, the right-hander has somewhat quietly developed into a quality reliever for the Bucs. He struggled down the stretch last summer but has solid numbers across the board this year.

Holderman, 27, owns a 3.71 ERA through 34 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate is fairly typical, while he has above-average control and a quality 51.5% grounder percentage. He’s handling hitters from both sides of the plate, mixes three pitches and has picked up 15 holds in a leverage role for Pittsburgh.

That’s valuable production, and Holderman’s affordability only adds to the appeal. He surpassed one year of MLB service this season. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next year and is controllable through the 2028 campaign. Every contender could fit him on the books and into the middle innings, but the Bucs also have zero urgency to deal him for a suboptimal return.

Of course, the Bucs’ top potential trade candidates would be mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller and All-Star closer David Bednar. Heyman reported earlier this week the Pirates were willing to consider offers on those players. Both are under arbitration control for multiple seasons beyond this one (Keller through ’25, Bednar past ’26). The ask on each will be very high as a result, and deals seem significant long shots. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote yesterday that a Keller or Bednar trade was very unlikely, characterizing the openness to offers as standard due diligence for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks

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The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.

Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.

Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.

Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.

Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.

As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ’pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).

Twins’ Starters Drawing Trade Interest

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The Twins have a strong enough rotation that rival clubs are expressing interest in their starters, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That’s not to say that the club is shopping any of those pitchers or seriously considering the incoming offers, but it seems it is an avenue that could be available to them prior to the deadline.

The Twins lost Tyler Mahle earlier this year when he required Tommy John surgery and have been without Chris Paddack all season due to him undergoing the same procedure last year. Nonetheless, they still have a five-man rotation of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda, all of whom are generally pitching well to varying degrees. Maeda is the only one with an ERA above 4.13, and his 4.62 mark is skewed by a 10-run drubbing he suffered earlier in the year just before landing on the injured list.

The club would be under no pressure to move anyone from that group. Their 54-50 record is strong enough to put them atop of the American League Central, a game and a half clear of the Guardians. But the interest might be a symptom of this year’s strange market. The expanded postseason and some tight divisions have made it so few teams are clear-cut sellers, which seems to be leading to more trades between contenders. The Twins already made one such trade, as they and the Marlins swapped relievers earlier this week.

With so many other clubs looking for pitching, perhaps the Twins would consider trading one of those five aforementioned names in order to address a different part of their roster, then leaning on a depth starter. They have veteran Dallas Keuchel in the organization on a minor league deal, who has an ERA of 0.69 in Triple-A with an opt-out opportunity on deadline day. They have some other depth options on the 40-man roster like Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson, though neither are having especially dominant seasons. Paddack could also potentially return in September, with Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reporting as much back in June.

The Twins have been reported to be seeking bullpen help and right-handed bats, while they are getting trade interest in their outfielders and now their starters. Perhaps that will put them in a position to make a “baseball trade” or two in the coming days, one that sees them upgrade for the pennant race by parting with major league pieces and keeping their farm system relatively intact.

As to which pitchers they could move, Ryan and Ober are young and haven’t yet reached arbitration, meaning it would be a shock to see them moved unless it were part of a very large deal. López just signed an extension in April and seems to be a long-term piece in Minnesota. Both Gray and Maeda are impending free agents, however, so perhaps Minnesota would have some more openness to a trade there.

Maeda, in particular, seems like he could be a sensible candidate. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the Twins gave some thought to trading him and giving his rotation spot to Keuchel. However, that’s still a tough decision since Maeda has been so good since returning from the injured list. It’s only been six starts but he has a 2.48 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in that time. Even when considering a “baseball trade,” it’s tough to subtract someone pitching that well.

Gray has a strong 3.15 ERA for the year but has hit a small rough patch of late. He had a 2.50 ERA until a couple weeks ago but allowed 13 earned runs in his past three starts. He has a long track record of success, so it would surely be difficult to trade him as well. The Twins picked up a $12.5MM club option on his services for this year, which will leave just over $4MM left to be paid out at the deadline, before he reaches free agency at season’s end. There’s been nothing to suggest the Twins have considered moving him, but it’s likely other clubs are interested.

Maeda’s contract is a bit more complicated as he has a $3MM base salary but huge performance bonuses each year. He gets an extra $1MM for reaching 15 and 20 starts per year, followed by $1.5MM for starts 25, 30 and 32. He also gets $250K for reaching 90 innings pitched and that same bonus every 10 innings after that, all the way to 190, before a $750K bonus at 200 innings. His injuries have limited him to 10 starts and 48 2/3 innings so far, but he still has time to trigger some of those incentives, in addition to having about $1MM of his base salary remaining at the deadline.

Yankees Designate Willie Calhoun For Assignment

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The Yankees announced Friday that they’ve reinstated outfielder Willie Calhoun from the injured list and designated him for assignment. Calhoun had been on a rehab assignment in Double-A but is out of minor league options, meaning once he wrapped up that rehab he’d either need to be placed back on the big league roster or designated. The Yankees opted for the DFA route and will now have until Tuesday to trade him. He’ll otherwise be placed on outright or release waivers.

With reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge expected back from the injured list tonight, the Yankees’ outfield is on the verge of becoming more crowded. New York could’ve parted with any of Billy McKinney, Jake Bauers or Greg Allen as a means of getting Calhoun back onto the roster, but the former two have outhit Calhoun this year while the latter provides a far better glove and a backup option in center field.

Calhoun, 28, once ranked as one of the sport’s top minor league talents but has never delivered the type of offense that was expected of him as a bat-first prospect. He signed a minor league deal with the Yanks in the offseason and has since turned in a .239/.309/.403 batting line (96 wRC+) in 149 trips to the plate. Calhoun has walked at an above-average 9.4% rate against a considerably lower-than-average 13.4% strikeout rate, showing a keen eye at the plate and strong bat-to-ball skills. Calhoun also sports a 90.7 mph average exit velocity and 42.6% hard-hit rate — both strong numbers in their own right.

Be that as it may, Bauers and McKinney have both shown more power in their also-limited time with the Yankees. Judge and center fielder Harrison Bader are, of course, locked into the regular lineup now that the former is set to return from the injured list. Giancarlo Stanton is set as the primary designated hitter. None of McKinney, Bauers, Allen or Calhoun can be optioned, so the Yankees effectively had to decide between the four — and Calhoun proved the odd man out.

There’s a chance Calhoun will be moved between now and the trade deadline, but it could be the end of his time with the Yankees regardless. Even if he’s ultimately passed through waivers unclaimed, he’d have the option to refuse an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you see the Marlins being sellers or buyers? (23:25)
  • Who are the Phillies targeting and who would they give up prior to the deadline? (26:35)
  • Who do the Tigers end up trading? And what can we expect in return? (28:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The Opener: Trades, Giolito, Freeland

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As we head into the final weekend before the trade deadline, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Trade season continues:

With trade season in full swing, the deals and rumors kept coming yesterday, highlighted by a pair of intradivision swaps: the Pirates dealt first baseman Carlos Santana to the NL Central-leading Brewers while the Mets officially began their selloff by shipping closer David Robertson to the Marlins. A pair of big names also entered the rumor mill yesterday, as reports surfaced that the Padres are willing to listen to offers on superstar Juan Soto and the Dodgers have discussed a deal for third baseman Nolan Arenado with the Cardinals. And, while it at one point looked like the Cards might extend closer Jordan Hicks rather than trade him, talks on a new contract have apparently not progressed. With just four days until the deadline on August 1, who will be traded next?

2. Giolito to make Angels debut:

After being dealt to the west coast alongside relief arm Reynaldo Lopez in exchange for two prospects, right-hander Lucas Giolito is poised to make his first start as a member of the Angels this evening. He’ll take the mound against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman to kick off a series that could have a major impact on the state of the AL Wild Card race. The Blue Jays currently hold the third and final spot with a 57-46 record that puts them three games ahead of Anaheim prior to their three-game set. The outcome of this series could be impactful not only for the Blue Jays and Angels, but also for the Red Sox and Yankees. Both clubs sit between Toronto and Anaheim in the standings, 1.5 games and 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, respectively.

3. Freeland to return:

Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list today to take the ball in this evening’s start against the A’s at Coors Field. Freeland made his major league debut in 2017 and posted a pair of excellent seasons to kick off his major league career, with a 3.39 ERA (143 ERA+) and 4.06 FIP in 358 1/3 innings. In the following years, however, he’s had the look of a back-of-the-rotation arm rather than a clear playoff-caliber rotation piece, with an exactly league average ERA+ of 100 since the start of the 2019 season. This season, Freeland sports a 4.72 ERA (107 ERA+) in 19 starts for the Rockies. His return should bring some stability to a Rockies rotation that currently includes Austin Gomber, Chase Anderson, and Peter Lambert.

Marlins Acquire David Robertson

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The Mets and Marlins pulled off a late-night divisional swap on Thursday. Miami acquired veteran reliever David Robertson in exchange for low minors prospects Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. The Fish transferred Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Robertson was one of the top rental relievers on the trade market for the second straight summer. The Cubs flipped the right-hander to the Phillies at last year’s deadline, bringing back pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson helped Philadelphia’s run to a pennant in 2022; he’ll hope for a similar late-season push in Miami.

Signed to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the offseason, the former All-Star was supposed to assume a key setup role in Queens. Edwin Díaz’s freak knee injury pushed Robertson into the ninth inning unexpectedly. While much of the New York roster has underperformed, the 15-year MLB veteran had a very strong few months in Flushing.

Robertson owns a 2.05 ERA across 44 innings. He’s well on his way to what’d be the sixth sub-3.00 showing of his career. He’s striking out just under 28% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on a quality 13.1% of his offerings. Robertson’s command had been spotty in 2022 — perhaps a reflection of rust after injuries cost him the bulk of the 2019-21 seasons — but he’s dialed the strike-throwing back in this season. Robertson has walked only 7.6% of batters faced.

He’s 14-17 in save opportunities and has picked up an additional seven holds. Robertson has dominated right and left-handed hitters alike this season and brings a rare consistency for a single-inning reliever. He’ll take on a key high-leverage role for the Fish, likely taking over closing duties. Left-handers Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk are also in the late innings. Miami’s bullpen was a bit thinner on right-handed options, so they’ll bring in Robertson one day after a swap of change-of-scenery relievers sent Dylan Floro to Minnesota for Jorge López.

The intra-division swap serves as a reminder of how disappointing the Mets’ 2023 campaign has been. New York, coming off a 101-win season and running the highest payroll in MLB history, entered the year with championship aspirations. Miami was viewed more as an upstart, a team with plenty of young talent that faced an uphill battle to finish higher than fourth in their division.

Four months later, the Marlins are buying from the Mets. Miami held a Wild Card spot for the bulk of the season. They’ve hit a cold spell, dropping nine of their last 11. They now find themselves outside the playoff picture but only marginally, as they’re half a game behind Cincinnati for the National League’s last postseason spot.

With a real chance to make the playoffs in a 162-game schedule for the first time in two decades, the Fish will deal from the low minors to add immediate MLB help. Now that they’ve fortified the bullpen, general manager Kim Ng and her staff could try to bolster the position player group in the coming days. They’ve been tied to infielders like Tim Anderson and Jeimer Candelario in recent days.

Miami appears to have some financial breathing room. Marlins’ owner Bruce Sherman implied as much a few weeks ago, and they’ll put that into practice by taking on the roughly $3.55MM owed to Robertson through season’s end. The Mets haven’t been shy about potentially paying down contracts to facilitate a better prospect return. That apparently wasn’t necessary in Miami’s case. Roster Resource had calculated the Marlins’ payroll around $103.6MM before the deal; it’ll jump past $107MM at this point.

The cash savings for the Mets will go beyond what Miami assumes in salary. Any money which New York offloads would also come with a 90% savings in luxury taxes which the club had been set to pay. The Mets save around $3.2MM in taxes and approximately $6.7MM overall.

More meaningfully, the organization adds a pair of intriguing low level talents. Vargas, 18, is a left-handed hitting infielder out of Mexico. He’d ranked 20th among Miami prospects at Baseball America coming into the season, though BA’s Josh Norris tweets that he was rising up the ranks after impressing evaluators in the complex league this summer.

The outlet’s preseason report praised Vargas’ bat-t0-ball skills and suggested he’s likely to fit best defensively at second base. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him ninth in the Marlins’ system at the end of May, similarly praising his hit tool. Vargas has a .283/.457/.442 line with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts in 33 games this year.

Hernandez, 19, is a switch-hitting backstop from Venezuela. He’s repeating the level at the complex league but raking at a .298/.464/.452 clip over 31 games. FanGraphs ranked him 24th in the Miami system, crediting his advanced hit tool and above-average arm strength. There’s ample variability in targeting players this young, but each of Vargas and Hernandez seems to have a shot at being an everyday player down the line if they develop as hoped.

That’ll be little consolation for the Mets in the short term. Moving Robertson confirms their increasingly obvious place as deadline sellers. Other potential free agents like Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and Mark Canha (whose contract contains a ’24 club option) could follow Robertson out the door. The Mets may not have the appetite for a larger-scale rebuild, but their place in the standings this year has gotten too hard to ignore.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were acquiring Robertson. Rosenthal and Will Sammon first reported the Mets were receiving two minor league hitters in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first with the return of Vargas and Hernandez. The Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed the Marlins were taking on all of Robertson’s remaining money.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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