The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger
For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.
MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.
Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)
Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?
Likeliest Fits
- Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
- Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
- Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.
Longer Shots
- Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
- Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
- Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
Payroll Questions
- Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
- Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.
Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool
Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.
A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:
- Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
- MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
- All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”
As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.
Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.
The following 10 players got more than $1MM:
- Rodríguez: $1,865,349
- Corbin Carroll: $1,812,337
- Adley Rutschman: $1,798,439
- Spencer Strider: $1,692,833
- Justin Steele: $1,673,331
- Kyle Bradish: $1,666,786
- Félix Bautista: $1,467,094
- Gunnar Henderson: $1,428,001
- Jonah Heim: $1,060,306
- Tanner Bibee: $1,016,931
Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.
Shin-Soo Choo To Retire After 2024 KBO Season
Longtime big league veteran Shin-Soo Choo announced earlier this week (hat tip to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that 2024 will be his final season in pro baseball. The 41-year-old Choo has played with the Korea Baseball Organization’s SSG Landers for the last three seasons, and he’ll spent one more year with the Landers before hanging up his cleats. Choo is essentially playing for free in 2024, as he re-signed with the Landers for a KBO-minimum salary and will donate the sum to charity.
“I decided it was time for me to put a period on my baseball journey that started in 2001,” Choo said in a team statement to the Korea Times and other outlets. “Since the 2024 season will be my last one, I want to show my gratitude to baseball fans, both at home and on the road, and give them long-lasting memories throughout the year.”
Choo hit .275/.377/.447 over 7157 plate appearances and 1652 games in the majors from 2005-20. A “professional hitter” type, Choo delivered a very solid 123 wRC+ over his 16 MLB seasons, always showing a knack for getting on base even in his less-successful seasons at the plate. Choo was also something of an underrated threat power-wise (218 home runs) and on the basepaths (157 steals in 212 chances), as he authored three 20-20 seasons during his big league career.
An international signing for the Mariners in 2000, Choo spent parts of his first two Major League campaigns in Seattle before being traded to Cleveland in July 2006. It was a shrewd acquisition for the Indians, as Choo went on to become a lineup fixture over seven seasons with the Tribe. However, as the team fell out of contention and Choo’s arbitration numbers began to increase, Cleveland dealt Choo to the Reds as part of a three-team, nine-player trade also involving the Diamondbacks in December 2012.
Choo’s lone season in Cincinnati was the best of his career, as he hit .285/.423/.462 with 21 homers and 20 stolen bases over 712 PA for a Reds team that reached the postseason. This great platform year led to a big free agent payday for Choo in the form of a seven-year, $130MM deal with Texas. Such a contract inevitably comes with high expectations, and unfortunately for both Choo and the Rangers, the deal didn’t really work out.
Between injuries and a declining glove, Choo’s value became entirely tied to his bat, and thus producing only good (111 wRC+) numbers in Texas wasn’t enough. Choo ended up generating only 7.5 fWAR over the length of that seven-year deal, and it didn’t help that the franchise as a whole went into a rebuild period during Choo’s tenure. After a pair of tough playoff losses to the Blue Jays in 2015-16, the Rangers didn’t post another winning record for the remaining four seasons of Choo’s deal.
After garnering only limited interest from big league teams during the 2020-21 offseason, Choo decided to head back to his native country and sign with the Landers (then known as the SK Wyverns). Since Choo had signed with the Mariners as an amateur, he had never played in the KBO League prior to 2021, and his homecoming has been a successful one. Choo has hit .259/.391/.427 over his three seasons with the Landers, and the team won the Korean Series in 2022.
Max Scherzer Undergoes Back Surgery
The Rangers announced Friday that right-hander Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back. General manager Chris Young tells reporters that the team and Scherzer tried “multiple conservative treatments in pain management” before resorting to surgery (link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Unfortunately, the last-resort option was apparently deemed necessary, and the operation will sideline Scherzer into June or even July.
“After returning to my offseason home in Florida, my discomfort in my back continued to get worse,” Scherzer himself said, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. “During this time, I received a diagnosis of a herniated disc. After several conservative treatments and consulting with multiple specialists, I made the decision to have the recommended surgery. Getting this procedure done now will give me the best chance to pitch as much as possible for the Rangers in 2024. I look forward to putting in the rehab work and getting back on the mound next summer.”
It’s obviously unwelcome news for the Rangers, who just gave up Luisangel Acuña to acquire Scherzer and cash from the Mets at last year’s deadline. As part of that deal, the Scherzer agreed to pick up his 2024 player option so that the club knew it was getting him for more than just a rental situation. Now he will miss at least half of the upcoming season that was obviously important to them.
These back problems aren’t coming out of the blue today. Scherzer was removed from Game 3 of the World Series after just three innings due to issue with his back, varyingly described as tightness or spasms. He was removed from the club’s roster prior to Game 4. Though the club was able to secure the title without him, it seems the issue lingered and ultimately required a significant surgery.
The club is now in a very peculiar situation in terms of their rotation, with the first half outlook wildly different than the second. Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June and could potentially return late in the 2024 campaign, depending on how his rehab goes. The club also signed Tyler Mahle just yesterday, who is on a similar timeline to deGrom, having undergone his own TJS procedure in May.
That means the club could welcome each of Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom back to the club over the course of 2024, but none of them will factor into the Opening Day rotation. For now, that leaves them with Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning as healthy options for the start of the season. Options for the back end would include Cody Bradford or Owen White, though they could also pursue external additions in the weeks to come.
This will likely give the club some interesting calculations to make. Last month, general manager Chris Young suggested their spending would likely be more modest this offseason, when compared to the big money they’ve recently thrown around on those aforementioned pitchers as well as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Although the club just won the World Series and surely banked some extra playoff money, there’s uncertainty around their broadcast revenues due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the owner of the Bally Sports network. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently at $233MM, per Roster Resource, just barely below next year’s base threshold of $237MM.
Rosenthal took a look at their situation earlier today, noting that the club was still interested in Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery and is yet another pitcher slated for a midseason return. That column came out before the Scherzer news, so it’s unknown if the club would still want to use its limited payroll room to bring in yet another pitcher that will miss the first half of the season.
But Rosenthal also adds that, if ownership becomes more comfortable with adding payroll, they could pivot to a reunion with Jordan Montgomery or one of the top starters on the trading block. Even with Glasnow seemingly headed to the Dodgers, pitchers like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes could be available for the right price.
If the club plans to stick with their conservative offseason, it may involve taking a risk on having limited pitching depth in the first half while banking on the returns of those injured guys for a strong second half push. But improving that depth might require them to alter their spending plans and/or go into luxury tax territory.
Rangers Sign Tyler Mahle To Two-Year Deal
The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.
Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.
That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.
While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.
If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.
Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.
Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.
The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Tommy Hunter Officially Retires
Longtime big league reliever Tommy Hunter has officially retired, he tells Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (X link). Hunter first indicated he was retiring on former teammate Adam Jones’ podcast in October, news that eluded MLBTR at the time.
Hunter, 37, pitched parts of 16 seasons in the majors. The Rangers selected the University of Alabama product in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft. He got to the big leagues the following August. Operating as a starter for three seasons, Hunter compiled a 4.36 ERA before being dealt alongside future home run champ Chris Davis to the Orioles for Koji Uehara.
While Davis turned out to be the star of that return, Hunter was a very productive player for Baltimore in his own right. He struggled as a starter over the next season and a half but found a new gear upon moving to the bullpen in 2013. The right-hander turned in consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showings while surpassing 60 innings in 2013 and ’14, combining for a 2.88 ERA over that stretch.
Hunter found himself in another deadline trade in 2015. As an impending free agent on an average Baltimore team, he was flipped to the Cubs in a swap for outfielder Junior Lake. Hunter bounced around as a middle reliever from that point forward, suiting up with the Indians, Orioles again, Rays and Phillies through 2020. He saw action with the Mets in each of the past three seasons. Hunter was generally effective for the majority of that time, although he finished with a 6.85 ERA in 23 2/3 innings before New York released him this past June.
In the decade after his move to the bullpen, he allowed 3.33 earned runs per nine in 410 appearances with six franchises. Hunter never posted huge strikeout tallies, but he had consistently strong command and turned in five seasons with 50+ innings and an ERA below 4.00. He was part of the 2010 Texas team that won the American League pennant and started Game 4 of that year’s Fall Classic, allowing two runs over four innings in a 4-0 loss.
For his career, Hunter posted a 4.07 ERA across 917 1/3 frames. He recorded 639 punchouts, won 56 games, picked up 103 holds and collected 22 saves. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings in the $36MM range. MLBTR congratulates Hunter on his productive, very lengthy run at the highest level and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.
Rangers, Jesus Tinoco Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rangers have agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Jesus Tinoco, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Presumably the Rep 1 client will head to big league camp this spring.
It’s a reunion between the two parties, as Texas was also Tinoco’s most recent MLB club. He pitched 20 2/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball for the 2022 Rangers, fanning 21.4% of his opponents against a more concerning 11.9% walk rate. Tinoco’s run with the Rangers was mostly solid, but he’ll also forever be remembered by many as the pitcher who had the distinction of serving up Aaron Judge‘s record-setting 62nd home run late in the ’22 campaign.
Tinoco, 28, spent the 2023 season with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He notched a tidy 2.38 earned run average with the Lions but did so with a below-average strikeout rate (18.2%) and a shaky walk rate (12.5%) that resembled his 2022 marks in Texas. Tinoco, who was famously traded alongside Jose Reyes and Miguel Castro in the 2015 blockbuster that send Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins from Colorado to Toronto, has a career 4.05 ERA in 66 2/3 big league frames.
The Rangers have a few spots at the back of the bullpen solidified, where Jose Leclerc, Josh Sborz, Brock Burke, Cody Bradford and recently signed Kirby Yates all seem likely to have roles. But there’s still competition for the remaining few spots and likely will be, even if GM Chris Young and his staff still make another veteran addition or two before the end of the offseason.
Rangers, Yankees, Astros Interested In Robert Stephenson
The market continues to materialize for free agent reliever Robert Stephenson. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Rangers and Yankees have shown interest. Chandler Rome of the Athletic reports that the Astros have also checked in on the right-hander.
Along with that trio, the Dodgers, Angels, Cubs and Orioles have been linked to Stephenson at various points this offseason. Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM contract, likely taking them out of a top-of-the-market reliever. The remainder of those clubs could still be involved, although the Angels have taken a lower-cost volume approach to build their middle relief corps.
The bullpen is the biggest question for Texas and Houston, the top two teams in the AL West. Those clubs’ respective baseball operations leaders, Chris Young and Dana Brown, have indicated they’re working with lesser financial flexibility than they’ve had in prior offseasons. Texas finalized a $4.5MM contract with former Brave Kirby Yates this evening. He joins José Leclerc and Josh Sborz as high-leverage righties, although the bullpen still seems the biggest question for the defending World Series winners.
Houston has Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu and Kendall Graveman as leverage options. Middle relief depth is more of a concern, as each of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. A more affordable middle innings pickup may be a better fit, particularly with the Astros right up against the luxury tax line. To that end, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 tweeted this afternoon the Astros remain in touch with Maton’s camp.
The Yankees already have one of the league’s best relief corps. Building the bullpen has been a consistent strength for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office. Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loáisiga anchor a group that skews heavily toward the right side. While Stephenson could represent something of a luxury buy, the Yankees haven’t shied away from spending on relievers and are clearly in an aggressive win-now mode.
MLBTR predicted Stephenson to secure a four-year, $36MM deal on the heels of a dominant showing with the Rays. He was behind only Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks in the bullpen class among MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents. The 30-year-old has an inconsistent career track record but turned in a 2.35 ERA with an absurd 42.9% strikeout rate in 42 appearances after being traded from the Pirates to Tampa Bay in June.
Rangers Sign Kirby Yates
The Rangers announced the signing of right-hander Kirby Yates to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $4.5MM guarantee for the Beverly Hills Sports Council client.
Yates, 37 in March, had something of a bounceback year in 2023, at least from a health perspective. Over the 2020-2022 seasons, he only tossed 11 1/3 total innings due to elbow injuries, requiring Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He then signed a two-year deal with Atlanta, with that club knowing he wouldn’t be a big factor in 2022.
He was healthy enough to make 61 appearances in 2023 with a 3.28 earned run average, though the underlying metrics were less encouraging. His 31.5% strikeout rate was still very strong but he also walked 14.6% of batters faced. A low batting average on balls in play of .211 and a high strand rate of 85.4% helped to keep runs off the board, which is why his 4.63 FIP and 3.90 SIERA were a bit less bullish on his performance. Atlanta let him go by choosing a $1.25MM buyout rather than a $5.75MM salary on a club option for 2024.
But prior to his lengthy injury woes, Yates was one of the best pitchers in the league for a time. In 2018, he posted an ERA of 2.14 with the Padres, pairing a 36% strikeout rate with a 6.8% walk rate. He was even better in 2019, getting his ERA down to 1.19 as he struck out 41.6% of batters and walked just 5.3%, racking up 41 saves in that season.
Yates obviously wasn’t back to that level in 2023 and it’s probably not fair to expect he ever will be, given his age. But he was still getting plenty of strikeouts in 2023 and his 93.6mph fastball velocity was essentially all the way back to his pre-injury form, as he was at 93.9mph in 2018 and 93.5mph in 2019. Perhaps now that he is further removed from his surgery, his control will improve. It’s perhaps notable that he had an 18.5% walk rate through June 7 but a 12.3% rate from that point on, showing at least some signs of improvement.
Despite winning the World Series in 2023, the bullpen was an obvious weak spot for the Rangers. Collectively, their relievers had an ERA of 4.77 on the year, which placed them 24th in the league. Midseason pickups Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton reached free agency after the playoffs, along with one-year signee Will Smith. If Yates is in decent form next year, he can help them make up for those losses.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Rangers were signing Yates to a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $4.5MM guarantee.
2023 Rule 5 Draft Results
The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.
As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.
This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…
1. Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.
* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.