Cardinals Rumors

NL Central Notes: Goldschmidt, Graveman, Reds, Santana

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 11:50am CDT

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cardinals believe they have a sense of what it would take to extend recently acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as well as the ability to make a “strong, market-right offer” to the slugger. A five-year extension offer from the team “would look something like five-years, $150 million,” per Goold, who suggests that it’s possible that the Cards could tweak an offer to technically be for six years and subsequently include a bump in Goldschmidt’s 2019 salary. All of that, of course, depends on how comfortable Goldschmidt is in betting on himself, how strongly he wants to test free agency and how he takes to his new environs in St. Louis. And, it should also be emphasized, it does not appear that any formal offer has been made at this point. The suggested terms would align closely with the $151MM extension signed by Jose Altuve in Houston last offseason, although Altuve’s new contract begins in his age-30 season, while any deal extending St. Louis’ control of the already 31-year-old Goldschmidt would begin in his age-32 campaign.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Martinez Trade

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2018 at 5:02pm CDT

Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season. On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought. Paul Goldschmidt has taken over as the Cards’ everyday first baseman, and with Marcell Ozuna in left field and Dexter Fowler slated for right field duty and hoping for a rebound, Martinez is now a man without a position, making him an intriguing potential trade chip as the Cardinals continue their offseason business.

Of course, there’s a good case to be made that St. Louis might not want to deal Martinez at all. Since Goldschmidt is only under contract through 2019, the Cards may want to keep Martinez in the fold as long-term insurance if case Goldschmidt leaves in free agency. Secondly, Martinez’s inexpensive pre-arbitration salary makes him a good asset for St. Louis to have as a bench bat. It’s easy to imagine the Cardinals hanging onto Martinez for late-game pinch-hitting duty, or the occasional spot start should Goldschmidt, Ozuna, or Fowler require a day off. Plus, should Fowler’s struggles continue next season, Martinez could find himself getting more regular playing time in right field.

There’s also the fact that the Cardinals seem to have already completed their biggest winter additions. After landing Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cards’ remaining needs are relatively minor — a backup catcher, a left-handed bench bat, and perhaps another bullpen arm. Any of these could be addressed in free agency rather than by trading Martinez.

With those arguments in mind, let’s now look at the case for why St. Louis might want to swing a deal. For starters, trading Martinez now could be a sell-high move. He was an unheralded prospect, who bounced around three other organizations (White Sox, Braves, Royals) before landing with the Cardinals, and Martinez didn’t really show much at the plate until 2014, when he was a 25-year-old on Atlanta’s high-A ball team. Since Martinez turned 30 last July, he doesn’t really project as a long-term piece for the Cards.

There’s also the fact that “man without a position” is something of an apt description for Martinez even when he was getting everyday at-bats, as he has been a below-average defensive player whenever he has played around the diamond. In 637 2/3 innings as an outfielder, Martinez has a -10.6 UZR/150 and minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved. He hasn’t fared much better even at the less-stressful position, posting minus-6 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150 over 936 1/3 frames at first base. While Martinez’s defense isn’t really an issue if he’s only limited to a spot start, or an inning or two at the end of a game after a pinch-hitting appearance, his poor glovework makes him a liability should the Cards actually need him for an extended fill-in capacity in case of injury.

The Rays and Dodgers have both reportedly shown some interest in acquiring Martinez, who makes some sense on either roster. Los Angeles is looking to add some right-handed pop to its mostly left-handed lineup, though the Dodgers could be aiming for bigger-ticket additions (such as J.T. Realmuto or A.J. Pollock) than Martinez. It’s possible that Tampa’s recent acquisition of Yandy Diaz could have taken them out of the Martinez hunt, as Diaz is another right-handed hitting complement to Ji-Man Choi in the first base/DH mix and Diaz also offers more defensive flexibility.

The Cardinals also tried to use Martinez as a trade chip to land Will Smith from the Giants, though it doesn’t appear San Francisco had much interest. While the Giants need corner outfield help, Martinez would be a poor fit in the spacious AT&T Park outfield, and first base is already spoken for in the form of Brandon Belt (plus, Buster Posey handles first when the Giants spell him behind the plate).

We’ve already seen some significant action within the first base market this winter, as the likes of Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana (twice), Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, Matt Adams, and Steve Pearce have all been traded or signed with new teams. Daniel Murphy will also be serving mostly as a first baseman with the Rockies, which addresses arguably the most glaring first base hole on any contending team.

It doesn’t leave much in the way of a wide-open trade market for Martinez, particularly since NL teams could be less likely to make a push given his lack of defensive prowess. On the plus side, his four years of team control could attract rebuilding clubs as well as contenders.

The Royals or Tigers make some sense as a Martinez suitor, though K.C. has a lot of right-handed hitters already and Detroit has youngster Christin Stewart slated for some DH duty due to his own defensive shortcomings. Martinez’s low price tag could appeal to the Mariners as they continue to cut costs, though the Cardinals would likely have to bring a third team into the trade to acquire Encarnacion, who obviously isn’t a fit in St. Louis with Goldschmidt on board. The White Sox could use Martinez as a part-time outfielder and platoon partner with Yonder Alonso in 2019, with an eye towards a more regular role if one or both of Alonso and Jose Abreu depart in free agency after the season. The Astros have been reportedly checking around for first base/DH help, though with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White already provided right-handed bats, Martinez could be overkill.

Returning to the National League, one interesting option could be Goldschmidt’s former team. The Diamondbacks are planning to give Jake Lamb some time at first base this season, though Lamb is coming off a rough 2018 and didn’t even hit left-handed pitching well even when he was in good form. If the D’Backs added Martinez to the first base mix, that would allow them to situationally shuffle Lamb to third base, Eduardo Escobar to second, and Ketel Marte potentially to center field. While Martinez-to-Arizona makes sense on paper, however, one would imagine the idea was already floated between the D’Backs and Cardinals when they were discussing the Goldschmidt trade. While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Diamondbacks wouldn’t pursue Martinez in a future deal later this winter, Martinez’s non-inclusion in that initial trade could indicate some lack of interest on Arizona’s part.

Quick Hits: Trout, A’s, Lowrie, Barreto, Cardinals

By Connor Byrne | December 23, 2018 at 2:56pm CDT

Despite Mike Trout’s presence, the Angels are stuck in no-man’s land as a club that doesn’t look like a clear-cut contender, Buster Olney of ESPN observes (subscription required). As brilliant as Trout has been, the Angels haven’t made the playoffs or won more than 85 games in a season since 2014, leading Olney to note there’s a legitimate argument they should consider a Mariners-esque rebuild. However, the Angels have signed starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill in win-now moves this winter, and Olney concedes it’s unlikely they’ll blow things up in the final two years of Trout’s contract. The 27-year-old Trout “desperately” wants to win, and the Angels are uninterested in trading him, writes Olney. But moving Trout to jump-start a rebuild is something the Angels should at least consider if he’s unwilling to sign an extension, Olney argues.

Here’s more from around the game:

Although Jed Lowrie was among the majors’ premier second basemen from 2017-18, during which he totaled 8.5 fWAR in 1,325 plate appearances as a member of the Athletics, the A’s won’t bring the free agent back. With Lowrie currently on the open market, Oakland acquired his replacement, Jurickson Profar, on Friday. The fact that Profar’s younger and cheaper than Lowrie led the A’s in that direction, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. While the 25-year-old Profar will earn a projected $3.4MM in 2019, Lowrie, 34, is seeking a three-year contract, according to Slusser. MLBTR estimates the switch-hitting Lowrie will find a three-year, $30MM pact, though Slusser writes that “many industry experts” are anticipating a two-year deal in the $18MM to $20MM range.
The Profar acquisition will also have an effect on A’s middle infield prospect Franklin Barreto, long one of their top farmhands. Trading for Profar suggests the A’s aren’t convinced Barreto can be part of the solution at second, posits Slusser, who adds that the team could shift the 22-year-old to the outfield (where he has racked up some experience in the Venezuelan Winter League) or even deal him. If Barreto does stick around, it’s likely he’ll “take on more of a utility role,” general manager David Forst said. Forst remains bullish on Barreto, as he added, “He’s going to be a valuable guy for us, his bat is going to play.”
Having acquired Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, most of the Cardinals’ heavy lifting for the offseason is already done prior to the New Year. The club hasn’t ruled out picking up another reliever to join Miller & Co., though, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. The Cards will also land a backup catcher – potentially by way of a minor league contract, per Goold – and perhaps another left-handed bench bat. St. Louis did acquire lefty-hitting reserve Drew Robinson from the Rangers earlier this month, but the 26-year-old utilityman hasn’t produced much in the majors and still has another minor league option remaining.

Pitcher Notes: Minor, Mets, Phils, Kimbrel, Cards, Hand, Astros

By Connor Byrne | December 23, 2018 at 12:20pm CDT

The Mets and Phillies are among the teams that have gone after Rangers left-hander Mike Minor this offseason, though the former is on his 10-team no-trade list, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). It may be a moot point anyway, as the Mets’ pursuit of Minor has reportedly “stalled” because of the Rangers’ asking price. The Phillies, meanwhile, would give Minor a chance to win a starting job in the spring, according to Zolecki, though he adds that they also like his ability to work out of the bullpen. If the Phillies miss out on free agent Zach Britton, whom they’ve been chasing throughout the offseason, they could acquire Minor and use him to fill their need for a left-handed reliever.

Whether the Phillies will add another righty to their bullpen is up in the air, but it won’t be free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel unless his price comes down, Zolecki reports. However, if Kimbrel sits on the market for a while longer and becomes more willing to accepting a three- or four-year offer, it’s possible the Phillies could strike, Zolecki suggests. That’s what happened last offseason when they reeled in starter Jake Arrieta on a three-year, $75MM pact – far lower than what he wanted entering the winter – a few weeks before he 2018 campaign started.
In signing southpaw Andrew Miller on Friday, the Cardinals fulfilled their desire to pick up a lefty reliever this winter. Before nabbing Miller, though, they contacted the Indians regarding Brad Hand, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The Indians’ asking price for Hand was presumably too high, however, given his star-level production from 2016-18, team-friendly contract and what they surrendered for him last July. Just five months ago, Cleveland sent elite prospect Francisco Mejia to San Diego for Hand and fellow reliever Adam Cimber.
Don’t expect the Astros to look for a reliever in response to righty Joe Smith’s injury, according to president Jeff Luhnow (via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). “Losing Joe is a blow, but I don’t think it requires us to go out and get another late-inning reliever. We’re going to have enough good arms in the bullpen to do what we need to do,” Luhnow said regarding Smith, who will miss six to eight months after undergoing surgery to repair a ruptured left Achilles. Luhnow’s stance is understandable – even with Smith on the shelf, Houston’s bullpen will continue to boast a slew of proven righties in Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Ryan Pressly, Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Brad Peacock.

Cardinals Designate Ryan Meisinger For Assignment

By Steve Adams | December 21, 2018 at 10:56am CDT

The Cardinals announced Friday that they’ve designated right-hander Ryan Meisinger for assignment. His roster spot will go to left-hander Andrew Miller, whose two-year pact with the Cards has now been formally announced.

St. Louis claimed Meisinger off waivers from the Orioles just last week. The righty made his big league debut with Baltimore this past season, pitching to a disappointing 6.43 ERA with a 21-to-10 K/BB ratio in 21 innings out of the Orioles’ bullpen. Meisinger did, however, enjoy a strong year between Double-A and Triple-A, where he pitched to a 3.13 ERA with averages of 10.8 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings pitched through 46 frames. Meisinger’s 91.1 mph average fastball velocity in the Majors this season checked in well south of the league average, though he still managed a solid 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate in that time.

Cardinals Sign Andrew Miller

By Steve Adams | December 21, 2018 at 10:50am CDT

10:50am: The Cardinals have officially announced the signing of Miller to a two-year contract with a vesting/club option for a third season.

10:41am: Rosenthal tweets that Miller will be guaranteed $25MM over the next two seasons with a $12MM vesting/club option for the 2021 campaign. Miller will be paid $11MM in 2019 and $11.5MM in 2020, and the option carries a $2.5MM buyout. He’ll receive a full no-trade clause as well — something Heyman suggested was a priority for the left-hander last week.

Per Rosenthal, the option will vest if Miller pitches a combined 110 games between the 2019-20 seasons. He can earn another $500K annually based on incentives.

Dec. 21, 10:34am: The Cardinals and Miller do indeed have an agreement, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. Frank Cusumano of KSDK News in St. Louis tweets that it’s a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third season.

Dec. 20, 6:55pm: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that the two sides are close to a multi-year deal (Twitter links). Miller, according to Passan, has received multiple two-year offers but has been seeking a three-year deal. It’s not yet clear whether the Cards went to three years or made a sizable increase to the value of a two-year offer. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cardinals could announce a deal with Miller as soon as tomorrow.

6:49pm: The Cardinals are closing in on a contract with left-handed reliever Andrew Miller, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch had reported shortly beforehand that the Cards were still looking at Miller and Zach Britton, and that there could be some movement in the market before the holiday week (Twitter link). Miller is represented by Frontline’s Mark Rodgers.

Miller, 34 in May, had a down season in 2018 as he missed brief stints due to hamstring and shoulder issues while also spending a more substantial period on the 60-day disabled list owing to a right knee injury. The result was a 4.24 ERA with somewhat diminished K/BB numbers in just 34 innings of work.

Of course, in the four preceding seasons, Miller was arguably the game’s best reliever, pitching to a ridiculous 1.72 ERA with averages of 14.5 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched from 2014-17. With the exception of the 2017 season, he’s posted at least average ground-ball tendencies on an annual basis, and dating back to the 2013 season, the only pitchers in all of baseball with a better swinging-strike rate than Miller’s 15.7 percent are Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen.

A healthy Miller would give the Cardinals the high-end left-handed presence they’ve been seeking at the back end of their bullpen in recent seasons. St. Louis’ four-year contract with fellow southpaw Brett Cecil has yet to pay dividends halfway through the life of that contract. Tyler Lyons, meanwhile, showed promise in 2017 but was cut loose this past summer after struggling badly early in the season. The Cards have been linked to both Miller and Britton on multiple occasions this offseason, and it’s long seemed that bolstering the relief corps (ideally with a southpaw) was high on the team’s wish list.

If and when the deal is completed, Miller will join a bullpen that was completely overhauled on the fly over the summer. Frustrated by his bullpen’s inconsistency, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak released Greg Holland, outighted Lyons and traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners within a matter of days in late July. That shakeup, combined with some late-season promotions, gives the Cards a potential relief corps consisting of Jordan Hicks, Dakota Hudson, John Brebbia, Chasen Shreve, Luke Gregerson and Dominic Leone. Top prospect Alex Reyes and veteran Adam Wainwright, too, could both be options in manager Mike Shildt’s bullpen.

Both Gregerson and Leone were 2017-18 offseason additions but, like Cecil before them, underwhelmed in their initial run with the team. This’ll be the third consecutive offseason in which Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsch and the rest of the front office do some heavy lifting in the bullpen, with the organizational clearly hoping that the “third time’s charm” adage rings true.

The addition of Miller will mark another aggressive, high-profile signing for the Cardinals, who have already acquired Paul Goldschmidt from the D-backs in a trade that sent young MLB-ready assets to Arizona in the form of Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver. After three straight postseason misses, it’s no surprise to see Cardinals brass acting aggressively in an effort to surpass the NL Central champion Brewers and a perennially contending Cubs team. Cardinals fans have come to expect postseason-caliber rosters on an annual basis, and the three-year absence from October baseball is the organization’s longest “drought” since missing the playoffs each season from 1997-99. As such, it won’t be the least bit surprising if the Cardinals continue adding to what already looks to be a much-improved roster as the offseason progresses.

Cardinals Notes: Fowler, Yadi, Roberts, Reyes

By Connor Byrne | December 16, 2018 at 8:32am CDT

Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler admitted to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week that he felt “depressed” in 2018, the worst season of an otherwise solid career. Only three position players finished behind Fowler in fWAR (minus-1.2), whose offensive production fell off a cliff in the second season of a five-year, $82.5MM contract. Despite a nightmarish campaign which ended in early August on account of a fractured left foot, the soon-to-be 33-year-old Fowler still “truly loves” baseball and is gearing up for a rebound next season. It helps that Fowler still has the confidence of Cardinals president John Mozeliak and manager Mike Shildt, and he has grown particularly close to the former, Goold explains. On the other hand, Fowler suggested he lost the belief of former manager Mike Matheny, whom Shildt replaced in July. In an effort to bounce back to his previous levels, Fowler has enlisted the help of the legendary Barry Bonds this offseason for both workout and hitting advice, Goold details. On Bonds, Fowler said: “My whole mindset is if I’m going to learn from the best, I’m going to do everything that he says to do, and if I fail at it then I can always look back and say I did it. I did everything. I did everything and it’s not in the cards.” Goold’s full piece is worth checking out for more from Fowler.

Here’s more on the Redbirds, courtesy of Goold:

Cardinals stalwart Yadier Molina underwent surgery Thursday to remove a bone spur from his left knee, Goold relays. After a two-week recovery, Molina should be ready to resume his typical offseason workouts, general manager Michael Girsch informed Goold. A healthy version of the franchise catcher is all the more important to St. Louis after it parted with young backstop Carson Kelly to acquire first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
The commissioner’s office has suspended Cardinals pitching prospect Griffin Roberts 50 games after a second positive test for a drug of abuse, Goold reports. The 22-year-old Roberts, whom the Cardinals chose 43rd overall in last June’s draft, will serve his suspension at the start of next season. Now the Cardinals’ 10th-ranked prospect at MLB.com, the right-hander combined for 9 2/3 innings at the rookie and Double-A levels last season after the team drafted him.
The Cardinals aren’t yet sure whether they’ll deploy righty Alex Reyes as a starter or a reliever in 2019, per Goold. Reyes, one of the most promising young pitchers in the sport, saw injuries derail his previous two seasons. The 24-year-old missed all of 2017 because of Tommy John surgery, and after returning to throw just four major league innings last season, he suffered a torn tendon in his right lat and had to go back under the knife. Fortunately, St. Louis expects Reyes to be “close to full speed” when spring training rolls around, Goold writes. Then, based on how Reyes looks in camp (and how the club constructs its rotation and bullpen), the Cardinals will decide on his role and whether he’ll begin the year in the majors.

Cubs, Cardinals Pursuing Daniel Descalso

By Jeff Todd | December 14, 2018 at 2:23pm CDT

The Cubs are “in strong pursuit” of Daniel Descalso, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). They’ll have interesting company in the bidding, though, as the division-rival Cardinals are also involved on their former infielder, as previously rumored and as Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets.

Descalso, 32, was a mainstay with the Cards for several years, but has spent the past four seasons out west with the Rockies and D-Backs. In that time, the veteran has not only spread his wings a bit defensively but heated up a bit with his left-handed bat.

Known primarily as a utility infielder, Descalso has now spent a fair amount of time in the corner outfield. It’s likely that these and other clubs will mostly value him for his ability to field any position on the dirt, but it surely doesn’t hurt that he’s now familiar with left field.

At the plate, Descalso has earned a rather expansive role in Arizona by producing sturdy on-base numbers. He’s still a clearly below-average hitter over the course of his career, but Descalso has also perhaps shown some newfound abilities at the plate as an acolyte of the flyball revolution.

Last year, Descalso popped a career-high 13 long balls and turned in a healthy .198 ISO — well north of anything he had shown previously. An aggressive new approach also resulted in quite a few more strikeouts (26.0%) than usual, but Descalso more than made up for that by setting new career marks (by a wide margin) with a 15.1% walk rate and 43.1% hard-contact rate. The results — a .238/.353/.436 slash — were impressive.

Given those changes, and Descalso’s preexisting reputation as a reliable veteran and generally solid defender, it’s not hard to see why these two contending clubs have interest. Presumably, others do as well, though the infield market is still quite overloaded with possibilities.

Post-Winter Meetings Rumors On Manny Machado, Bryce Harper

By Steve Adams | December 14, 2018 at 9:13am CDT

Manny Machado will head to Philadelphia for an in-person visit with the Phillies next week, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and George A. King III of the New York Post suggests that a similar visit to Yankee Stadium could be lined up for next week as well. The Yankees and Phillies are two of the reported four teams set to be aligning visits with the polarizing Machado, along with the White Sox and the ever-popular “mystery team.” For the Phillies, the acquisition of Jean Segura makes Machado a likelier fit at third base despite the infielder’s clear preference to play shortstop. Machado’s former third base coach in Baltimore, Bobby Dickerson, tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Machado would move to third base if an offer to do so was the clear best offer he received in free agency. Perhaps more interestingly, Dickerson talks with Lauber about Machado’s personality, his preternatural defensive aptitude at third base and, in reference to Machado’s October villainy, his belief that Machado “is fine with being the bad boy.”

With the Winter Meetings now in the rear-view mirror, here’s a bit more on Machado and the market’s other top free agent…

White Sox GM Rick Hahn somewhat indirectly acknowledged his interest in both Machado and Bryce Harper on Thursday, as Bruce Levine writes for 670 The Score FM. “We are excited to be discussing impactful moves for the long term,” said Hahn of his team’s reported interest in the market’s top two free agents. “It’s good to have a seat at the table for some long impactful moves. This work does not mean anything is going to come together. … Even if we are able to convert on something big, there is a lot of work to do behind it to get us where we want to be (as an organization).” Levine suggests that an opt-out provision after three or four years would be a “significant draw” for Harper, though that much has been more or less expected for some time. Top free agents have increasingly gravitated toward the inclusion of such contracts, and several recent free-agent signings have included multiple opportunities to re-enter free agency (e.g. Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez).
Also via Nightengale, agent Scott Boras implied in characteristically colorful fashion that he’s not concerned about early indications that some potential suitors (e.g. Yankees, Cardinals) have limited interest or trepidation when it comes to a legitimate pursuit of Harper. “When the nurse walks in the room with the thermometer, the issue is not what the thermometer says that day,” said Boras. “The issue is what’s the health of the patient when they’re ready to leave the hospital.” The Phillies and White Sox both remain in the mix on Harper, per the report, and Nightengale speculatively suggests that the Dodgers, who are reportedly trying to move Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, shouldn’t be ruled out. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, though, tweets that the Dodgers aren’t interested in pushing talks to 10 years on Harper. Nor, for that matter, are the Angels or Giants, each of whom has been previously mentioned as a potential dark horse.
ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that executives from other clubs and agents throughout the industry find it increasingly possible that the Phillies, long the presumptive favorite to sign one of Harper or Machado, could instead come away with neither in hand. Olney, too, suggests that the Dodgers’ efforts to move Kemp, Puig and other notable salaries could eventually result in the capacity to submit a winning offer to Harper. While there’s doubt that the Dodgers would offer the longest-term contract, Olney suggests perhaps a front-loaded deal with a substantial annual value from a team that has appeared in consecutive World Series would prove enticing. Meanwhile, the Yankees still present a viable threat to the Phillies for Machado as they look to close ground on the World Champion Red Sox.
There’s no indication that anything has changed for the Cubs, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required), who writes that the team is “close to maxing out” its baseball operations budget for the 2019 season. Rather than acknowledge a need for any sort of augmentation to the roster, manager Joe Maddon suggested that the greater issue for the Cubs is to extract better performance from the talent already in house. Along those same lines, GM Jed Hoyer spoke of the promising signs he’s seen in Kris Bryant as he looks to rehab from 2018 shoulder woes.

Projecting Payrolls: St. Louis Cardinals

By Rob Huff | December 13, 2018 at 2:08pm CDT

The Winter Meetings are now in full swing, so it’s time to keep this ball rolling and move on to our 11th team. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club who has missed the playoffs for three consecutive years for the first time since the 1990s and has already made (possibly) its biggest offseason splash: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Team Leadership

After over 40 years of Anheuser-Busch ownership, the Cardinals were sold to former St. Louis Browns bat boy and American businessman Bill DeWitt Jr. in 1995. DeWitt has maintained ownership of the club since that time, involving his family in the management thereof. DeWitt’s son, Bill DeWitt III, is has been team president for the past decade. St. Louis missed the playoffs each year from 1988-95, a seven-year postseason drought (nobody made the playoffs in 1994), and they made the playoffs only once during the first five years of DeWitt ownership from 1995-99, reaching the National League Championship Series in 1996. Beginning with the 2000 season, however, St. Louis has made 12 postseason visits while missing out on the tournament only seven times, a remarkable run of success.

The front office is lead by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. Mozeliak joined the Cardinals organization in 1996 as a scouting assistant and climbed the ladder, finally becoming General Manager in October 2007 before ascending to his current post in June 2017. In a move that coincided with Mozeliak’s ascension, Mike Girsch was named General Manager.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Cardinals, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers a time of tremendous success for the Cardinals. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

St. Louis spending was largely unchanged for the latter half of the past decade, sticking just south of $100 million each year from 2005-10 before finally crossing the threshold in 2011. Nevertheless, spending didn’t take a big leap for the Cardinals until the rival Cubs emerged as a force in 2015, perhaps fueling a payroll surge in 2016 that hasn’t subsided.

Despite this increased Major League spending, the Cardinals have never paid the luxury tax, nor have they been players for the most significant international free agents. Their laudable ability to develop talent internally has enabled them to eschew massive spending or risk taking in their pursuit of wins.

Future Liabilities

The Cardinals have something of an all-in approach for 2019. See below.

There are some big-money salaries on here, but most of the Cardinals’ commitments are in the form of mid-market deals for relatively short periods of time, many of which expire or feature options for the 2020 season.

Nevertheless, the team’s best hitter, the newly-acquired Paul Goldschmidt, and their best pitcher, the recently-acquired Miles Mikolas, both figure to get massive raises when they hit free agency in 11 months. If both players produce as stars, the club will either make a big play to keep one or both or they’ll enjoy the compensation draft picks that come along with having a pair of free agents decline qualifying offers and sign elsewhere.

The multi-year commitment to franchise icons Molina and Martinez look like good investments. Molina figures to spend his entire career in St. Louis. His 2017 extension all but ensured that. His top-level defense renders this deal a fine use of cash, albeit not the most efficient one. Martinez struggled with injuries in 2018, but he has consistently pitched as an ace, comes at bargain prices thanks to his 2017 extension, and is still, incredibly, just 27 years old.

Contrarily, the multi-year commitment to Fowler looks like a bad one. The former Cub enjoyed a strong year with his bat in 2017, but 2018 was an unmitigated disaster as Fowler failed to get on bad or hit the ball with authority. For a player with a lengthy injury history, he also missed substantial time with a foot injury. He is rapidly nearing pumpkin territory.

The Cardinals feature a trio of players with club options for the 2020 season that are auditioning for that payday. Carpenter is overwhelmingly likely to have his option exercised as the offensive force with defensive versatility fits on every team. Gyorko has recovered nicely after arriving in St. Louis after bottoming out post-extension in San Diego, but his option is a coin flip at best. Gregerson washed out in 2018 with shoulder issues, but a strong 2019 that shows a return to his 2009-16 success could change the script.

Cecil largely provided the desired results after arriving in 2017, but he flopped in 2018, struggling with homers and especially walks. At 32 and having lost two miles per hour on his pitches across the board, he could be dead weight for the club absent a surprising rebound.

One more franchise icon, Wainwright returns for a last hurrah in 2019 on an incentive-laden deal that contemplates a starting or relieving role. Regardless of who he has left in the tank, he won’t cost the club much.

Finally, there are a pair of extensions for athletic middle infielders. Wong came with a first-round pedigree, but his bat has never fully justified that history, save for a strong BABIP season in 2017. His glove and wheels, however, have rendered him a solid regular. DeJong, on the other hand, the 131st pick in the 2015 draft, positively exploded onto the scene in 2017 and showed that it was no fluke with a strong repeat performance in 2018, albeit one that was based more on his glove than his offensive prowess. Nevertheless, DeJong appears to be a league-average bat with legitimate defensive chops at shortstop.

Finally, we hit the dead money. Like so many clubs in the last decade, the Cardinals featured deferred money in big-money deals for Holliday and Pujols, owing the pair $2.6 million annually throughout the 2020s. That’s not backbreaking money, but it’s more than nothing.

As with the Giants before them, given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Cardinals have very little in the way of arbitration eligible talent. Ozuna is the big fish with a seat at the arbitration table as he makes his final trip through the process in advance of free agency next winter. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that Chasen Shreve has already come to an agreement at $900,000, a bit below that projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:

In addition to Ozuna, Wacha figures to play a key role despite having lost much of 2018 to a lingering oblique injury.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

The Cardinals are talking like an organization ready to push in a whole bunch of chips on the 2019 table, with Mozeliak stating at the Winter Meetings that “simply, we realize the importance of 2019.”

DeWitt turned things up a notch last month, explaining that “there is value in star players” and adding that “we’re aggressive and we’ve got resources to deploy if the right situation emerges.” Incredibly, DeWitt even specifically addressed spending on free agents when commenting about his desire to build a team that perennially wins 90 games, offering up that “frankly, we felt that incremental benefit (of free agents) could get us those last few wins.”

This is not an organization that seems content to watch the Cubs and Brewers rule the National League Central for the next few years.

Are the Cardinals a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

No matter what you hear elsewhere, the answer here is simple: absolutely yes.

Although the Cardinals haven’t signed a player to a contract larger than Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million pact, they made competitive offers for Jason Heyward and David Price approaching $200 million each while agreeing to take on over $250 million for Giancarlo Stanton before he ended up in the Bronx last winter. The team hasn’t shied away from monster offers.

As for their roster, even after shipping out Luke Weaver in the Goldschmidt trade, St. Louis is dripping with cheap, controllable pitching behind Mikolas, Wainwright, and Wacha in the form of Martinez, Jack Flaherty, super-prospect Alex Reyes (despite his injuries), and Dakota Hudson, and that’s before factoring in John Gant’s surprising 2018 season. They don’t really need starting pitching help.

The team is loaded up with right-handed bats featuring good-to-great power in Goldschmidt, Ozuna, DeJong, Molina, and defensively-homeless Jose Martinez. Harper would provide an awfully attractive complement in the middle of that order. I’m not sure if Machado fits as smoothly, but Harper sure does.

Watch out for St. Louis on Harper. They make a ton of sense.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The Cardinals will almost certainly avoid reaching taxpayer status in 2019. They’ve never shown a penchant to spend to that degree. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if spending received another boost based on the fact that the team has missed the playoffs for three straight years and given the amount of resources poured into the Goldschmidt and Ozuna acquisitions.

As currently constructed, St. Louis has a payroll of just $148.7 million, $149.3 million for luxury tax purposes. Given historical trends and the pressure to win now, I expect to see a notable one-year jump in spending before the team regroups for 2020 with Mikolas, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt all hitting free agency at the same time.

If spending spikes to $180 million, the team would have $31.3 million of space, nearly enough to sign Harper without any other roster maneuvering. I don’t think that things will get quite that lofty, but even a bit below that figure, there’s enough space for the team to make a relatively simple move — like trading Gyorko for salary relief with the third baseman displaced by Carpenter’s move back across the diamond — to clear space for Harper.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $26.3 million

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