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Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

The Cardinals’ Backup Catcher Competition

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The Cardinals wasted little time finding a replacement for franchise icon Yadier Molina following his retirement, inking longtime division rival Willson Contreras to a five-year contract in free agency. That solidifies the lion’s share of catching time in the immediate future, but there’ll at least be some competition with regard to who’ll back Contreras up in 2023 and perhaps beyond. While Andrew Knizner was Molina’s backup in recent seasons, MLB.com’s John Denton tweets that manager Oli Marmol “made it clear” that the backup job behind Contreras is a competition. Specifically, non-roster invitee Tres Barrera has made strong impressions early in camp.

Knizner, 28, has appeared in 160 games and tallied 478 plate appearances for the Cards over the past two seasons, but he’s managed just a .200/.294/.276 batting line in that time — about 33% worse than that of a league-average hitter (67 wRC+). Knizner has been good at controlling the running game in his career (29.8% caught-stealing rate), but he’s posted poor framing marks and been dinged with a minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved mark dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.

To his credit, Knizner was a well-regarded prospect and has a strong track record in the upper minors (.318/.368/.445 in Double-A; .283/.362/.453 in Triple-A). Scouting reports throughout his minor league tenure praised him as a bat-first option at catcher, but he’s yet to match those expectations. He’s also rarely had stable playing time in the big leagues, but with Contreras signed that’s unlikely to change.

As for the 28-year-old Barrera, he’s spent his entire career to date in the Nationals organization, receiving very limited looks in the Majors. He’s tallied just 51 games and 162 plate appearances, batting .231/.317/.315 with a pair of homers. In parts of six minor league seasons, Barrera has put together a .251/.332/.388 batting line, including a .228/.320/.356 slash in 402 Triple-A plate appearances.

Barrera has drawn average or better framing marks in his small MLB sample, but he’s had the opposite problem of Knizner, throwing out a woeful three of 34 attempted thieves on the basepaths (8.8%). However, he’s been far better in the minors over a much larger sample — 106-for-421, for a 25.2% rate — so there’s reason to expect him to improve on that currently unsightly number.

Not mentioned in Denton’s report but also in camp is top prospect Ivan Herrera. Once regarded as the heir-apparent to Molina, the 22-year-old Herrera made his big league debut in 2022 and went 2-for-18 with eight punchouts in 22 plate appearances. However, he also turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 batting line in Triple-A (111 wRC+) and has generally been an average or better bat at every minor league stop. He’s a career .276/.375/.415 hitter in parts of five minor league seasons and placed 75th among all prospects on FanGraphs’ rankings prior to the 2022 season.

With Contreras now installed behind the dish, Herrera’s main role with the Cardinals — at least in the short term — would appear to be a backup. He’s on the 40-man roster and has a minor league option remaining, so for now he can be sent to Triple-A to keep getting regular work in the event of an injury to Contreras. Longer term, there’s no longer a clear starting spot on the roster for Herrera. Having an overqualified backup isn’t a bad thing, though, and Contreras has enough bat to play some designated hitter as a means of keeping him fresh, which could theoretically open some additional playing time. There’s also the obvious likelihood that other clubs will come calling on Herrera’s availability, but to this point there’s been little indication the Cardinals have seriously entertained any overtures.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Former MLB Catcher Gary Bennett

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Former MLB catcher Gary Bennett chatted with MLBTR readers for more than two hours this morning. Click here to read the transcript and learn more about Bennett below:

Gary Bennett was drafted by the Phillies in the 11th round in 1990 out of Waukegan East High School.  His MLB career began with a single plate appearance more than five years later, when he pinch-hit for the Phils against David Wells.  His first big league home run came in 1999, at the age of 27.

In July of 2001, Bennett was traded to the Mets for Todd Pratt.  A year later, he was dealt to the Rockies.

It was in 2002, at the age of 30, that Bennett landed regular work in the Majors, serving as Colorado’s primary catcher.  He then signed a free agent deal with the Padres, leading their ’03 club in innings caught.  After the ’03 season, Bennett signed as a free agent with the Brewers.  He served as the backup to Chad Moeller that year.

On to the Nationals in ’05, Bennett’s life as a big league mercenary catcher continued, this time with Damian Miller as his counterpart.

Bennett moved to the Cardinals for the ’06 season, working behind Yadier Molina.  The Cards beat the Tigers in five games in the World Series that year, and Bennett earned a ring.  The Cardinals retained Bennett for ’07, providing some rare continuity, after which he closed out his career with the Dodgers.

In the end, Bennett spent over 4,200 innings in the Majors behind the dish, catching pitchers such as Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, and Adam Wainwright.  He also hit a homer off Sheets at one point, taking Dontrelle Willis and many others deep as well.  Memorable moments included walk-offs on back-to-back days against the Cubs in ’06 – one a single and the other a grand slam.

In 2007, Bennett was one of the players named in the Mitchell Report.  He owned up to his use of human growth hormone, later telling Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “It was unethical, cheating, taking performance enhancement stuff.”

After Gary’s playing days wrapped up, he became a partner in a training academy called Slammers Baseball.  Other ventures have included medical device sales, real estate, and non-profit foundations such as CASA Lake County and Science of Sport.  The Bennetts also have three kids, one of whom played baseball at Mizzou and another currently playing at Illinois.  You can follow Gary on Twitter @gdbjr5.

Gary offered to chat with MLBTR readers, and we’re happy to have him!  Click here to join the live chat.

If you’re a current or former MLB player and would like to do a one-hour chat on MLBTR, please contact us!

Cardinals Notes: Arenado, Fermin, Pitching Staff

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Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado has watched several teammates play into their age-40 seasons in recent years, but he tells MLB.com’s John Denton that as things stand right now, he’s not planning to follow Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright down that path. Arenado tells Denton he’d like to play until age 38 — long enough that his infant daughter can eventually watch him play in the Majors. Calling it quits at 38 would also give Arenado an earlier path to spending more time with his young family, of course. As you’d expect, Arenado qualifies that the age-38 plan is subject to change, noting that his body, on-field performance and other factors will play sizable roles in the decision as time passes.

On a surely related note, Arenado talks with Denton about the intensity with which he prepares for and plays the game, acknowledging that it can take a toll on him. Arenado wonders whether that intensity can be “too much” for both his own psyche and, at times, his teammates, adding: “I actually need to relax more.” It’s an interesting look at Arenado’s personality, mentality and place within the organization. Cards fans — and, more broadly, fans of Arenado in general — will want to check it out in full.

A few more items pertaining to the Cards…

  • Infielder Jose Fermin has a strained quadriceps and will be shut down for at least the next two weeks, manager Oli Marmol announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Acquired in a November trade with the Guardians, the 23-year-old Fermin (24 late this month) has been competing for a bench spot, but this injury all but eliminates the possibility of him landing on the Opening Day roster. He’s out to a 1-for-8 start thus far in Grapefruit League play and is coming off a shaky .215/.336/.322 showing in 330 Triple-A plate appearances a year ago. Even while struggling in Triple-A, however, Fermin fanned at a tiny 13.9% clip against a hearty 12.7% walk rate. He’s long drawn praise for his bat-to-ball skills, above-average speed and above-average defensive potential. He has very little power, but a healthy Fermin could seemingly make the Cardinals as a versatile utility player with a knack for putting the ball in play. He’s in the first of three minor league option seasons and is already on the 40-man roster, so he could potentially impact the team’s bench mix for several years.
  • Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat takes a thorough look at the Cardinals’ pitching depth, noting that this is the deepest staff of arms the Cards have carried in some time. A few items of particular note include that righty Drew VerHagen and lefty Zack Thompson, both of whom have been rotation options in the past, have been brought along on reliever schedules this spring. Sophomore righty Andre Pallante started 10 games for the Cards in 2022, but it seems the team is monitoring his workload even as he preps to pitch for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic; the Cards have asked that Team Italy not push him beyond 45 pitches in any outing. Pallante is likely ticketed for a relief role in 2023, given the presence of Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty in the rotation (with Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford and top prospect Gordon Graceffo all on hand as depth options). It should be noted that Matz is the only member of that rotation signed/controlled beyond 2023, however, so the Cards will surely be hoping for some in-house arms to step up and prove they can be relied upon in 2024 and beyond (even if the addition of an arm or two next winter feels inevitable).

Cardinals Notes: Walker, Flaherty, Wainwright

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Jordan Walker leads all hitters in baseball with a 1.667 OPS in Spring Training, as the young slugger continues to turn heads.  While Walker’s performance has come over only 18 plate appearances, his speed, power, and overall hitting prowess has created some buzz that he might break camp with the Cardinals, MLB.com’s John Denton writes.  Manager Oli Marmol didn’t close the door on the possibility, saying “I don’t know what the tipping point is, but he’s continuing to show he’s capable.  We went into this camp saying there is going to be real competition and that’s what he is making this — a real competition.”

As a consensus top-five prospect in baseball, Walker isn’t exactly coming out of nowhere, but the expectation was that he would begin the season in the minors since Walker has yet to play any Triple-A ball.  Even if Walker’s bat might be ready for prime time, he only started playing in the outfield last season, as the Cards moved him off his original third base position since Nolan Arenado obviously has the hot corner spoken for at the MLB level.  St. Louis also technically has a full outfield complement already, with Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Lars Nootbaar slated for starting duty, Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez in backup roles, and versatile infielders Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan able to play on the grass when they aren’t elsewhere on the diamond.  That said, the Cardinals have traditionally not been shy about promoting their top prospects, and the team’s decision-makers might face a real choice if Walker keeps crushing the ball.

More from St. Louis…

  • Jack Flaherty is tentatively scheduled for his first spring outing as part of a piggyback start with Jordan Montgomery, though Flaherty has been dealing with both flu-like symptoms and discomfort in his calf.  Marmol told John Denton and other reporters that the team was monitoring Flaherty’s health and could push the right-hander’s debut back for a second time, with an eye towards getting Flaherty on the mound later this week.  Neither the illness or injury seem like any major concern at this time, and Flaherty was able to throw a simulated game last week. [UPDATE: Flaherty’s outing will be pushed to Monday, Marmol told Denton and other reporters.  Flaherty will get an extra day to recuperate, and is scheduled for three innings of work against the Astros.]
  • Adam Wainwright is also dealing with some aches and pains, as the veteran starter told reporters (including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that “I had some back spasms stuff going on a couple weeks ago, and it shut a muscle down that I’m really trying to get to turn back on right now.”  Between the back spasms, the related glute muscle issue that is impacting Wainwright’s running, and a minor blister problem, it isn’t surprising that Wainwright’s first couple of Grapefruit League outings have been forgettable, with a 7.20 ERA over five innings.  Wainwright did note that his velocity was slightly up in his second start, and feels he’ll be ready to go when he pitches for the United States team during the World Baseball Classic.

Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat Hosted By Former MLB Reliever Chuckie Fick

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Chuckie Fick worked as a reliever at Fresno State, transferring to California State University, Northridge after one season there.  He served as a starter for the Matadors and was drafted in the 15th round by the Cardinals in 2007.  Chuckie had ties to the organization, as the son of longtime Cardinals scout Chuck Fick.  He’s also the nephew of Robert Fick, the former Tigers All-Star.

Chuckie Fick worked his way through the Cardinals’ minor league system, getting a chance to start in 2008-09 before moving to the bullpen permanently.  He broke into the Majors in May of 2012, debuting at age 26 at Busch Stadium and tossing a scoreless inning against Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies.  He pitched for the Cardinals the following day as well, but that would be his last appearance for the organization.  Fick was designated for assignment in July of 2012, and was then claimed off waivers by the Astros.

Fick had ties to the Astros organization as well at that point, having been drafted as a Cardinal by Houston’s new GM, Jeff Luhnow.  As Chuckie explained in an interview with Eric Treuden of Call to the Pen last year, he’d known Luhnow for years due to the connection through Fick’s father.  Having recently traded Brett Myers, the Astros were in need of bullpen help.

Fick made 18 appearances for the Astros in 2012, posting a 4.30 ERA.  The club removed him from their 40-man roster in November.  Fick spent 2013 with the Astros’ and Rockies’ Triple-A affiliates.  He’d go on to pitch in the Mexican League, Chinese Professional Baseball League, and the Atlantic League.  Though his MLB career lasted only 24 2/3 innings, Fick still managed to punch out stars such as Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Holliday, and Jonathan Lucroy.

After retiring, Fick explained to Treuden, “I had opportunities to go play again, but after 2013, I felt like a mercenary, and I never knew when or where my next paycheck was going to come from. I never identified as a ’baseball player.’ It was my job and not my identity, so to not play anymore was not a big emotional decision for me. For the amount of attention I garnered out of high school, college, and even while in pro ball, I consider my career a success. I patted myself on the back, called my agent and told him I was done. Two days later, I hopped on a flight to Nicaragua to go surfing, and the rest is history.”

Now 37 years old, Fick works in insurance with Gallagher Global.  He also serves as a pitching coach for the SoCal Giants, a baseball program run by his father.  You can follow Chuckie on Twitter @chuckiefick.  We were happy to welcome Chuckie for a live chat, wherein he shared some memories from his career, talked about his experiences teaming with All-Stars like Yadier Molina and Jose Altuve, recalled his lone professional hit and touched on the transition from active player into the next phase of his life.  Click here to read the transcript!

NL Central Notes: Mikolas, Walker, Hill, Senzel

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Miles Mikolas didn’t exactly suggest that he might give the Cardinals a so-called hometown discount in a new contract, even though the team’s spring camp is located in his actual hometown of Jupiter, Florida.  Mikolas noted to MLB.com’s John Denton that when he returned to the big leagues after pitching in Japan from 2015-17, “I had four or five offers that were all about the same, and I chose the Cardinals because of the organization, the fanbase and because Spring Training is in my hometown.  There are always a lot of factors that play into it, and they’ll play into it if I have a decision to make down the road.”  Of course, Mikolas also noted that other teams play near Jupiter, and joked that he wouldn’t necessarily be tied to the area since “the fishing is still pretty good on the west coast [of Florida].”

Mikolas said that “everything about being a Cardinal is fantastic” and that he is happy with St. Louis.  As far as a long-term deal is concerned, “those decisions aren’t always up to the player.  My job is to go out there and get outs as efficiently as I can, and that’s what I’m going to focus on.”  After his initial deal with the Cardinals, Mikolas already agreed to one extension with the club, and 2023 is the final season of that four-year, $68MM pact.  The Cards’ pitching outlook is a major storyline hanging over the team’s season, as Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are all slated to free agency next winter and Adam Wainwright will retire after the year.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Sticking with the Cardinals, the team is planning to focus all of Jordan Walker’s spring work on the outfield, rather than any reps at his former third base position.  Manager Oliver Marmol feels Walker would be able to adjust easily back to third base if a need arose, but the skipper told Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that “when you’re making the transition as a young player, it’s hard to…stay sharp at a lot of different positions.  With this transition of [Walker] playing the outfield for the first time, we’re solely focused on him improving there rather than put too much on his plate.”  One of baseball’s top prospects, Walker has already drawn a lot of buzz after his very first spring start, and Walker seems likely to make his big league debut in 2023 even though he has yet to play at the Triple-A level.  Though the St. Louis outfield is already pretty crowded, Walker’s position change became necessary since Nolan Arenado is locked in at the hot corner.
  • Rich Hill underwent a minor elbow procedure following the 2022 season, Pirates GM Ben Cherington told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.  Described as something of a clean-up surgery, it doesn’t appear that the procedure will impact Hill’s readiness for Opening Day, nor did it seem to hurt his free agent market — the Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Angels all reportedly had interest in Hill before he signed a one-year, $8MM deal with Pittsburgh.  Hill turns 43 years old on March 11, and the 2023 season will be Hill’s 19th Major League campaign.
  • Reds manager David Bell shed some more light on Nick Senzel’s recovery timeline, telling reporters (including Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that the hope is for Senzel to be playing in Spring Training games by the middle of March.  There was already an expectation that Senzel would be somewhat slowly ramped up to action while he returns to full fitness after offseason toe surgery, and a mid-March return date might allow for Senzel to be ready for Cincinnati’s Opening Day lineup.  The toe surgery is the latest in a long list of injury problems for the former top prospect, who has been limited to 273 MLB games since making his Major League debut in May 2019.

Tyler O’Neill Targeting Cardinals’ Center Field Job

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With last year’s trade of Harrison Bader, the Cardinals have less certainty in center field than they have had in a few years. Dylan Carlson got significant playing time there down the stretch and has been seen as the favorite for the job going forward, but he’ll have competition. Tyler O’Neill told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he has his sights on the job.

“I’d love to play center field,” O’Neill said. “I’m not trying to boot anybody away from that position either, but it’s whatever they deem fit. I know they’re very analytically-driven here. I just want to be the best player that I can be. I’ve worked really hard this offseason at increasing my first-step quickness and making sure my legs can be under me. I believe I can definitely play that position if that’s where they want me.”

It seems as though the club is willing to give him a shot. “(He’s) competing for the center field job,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “He came into camp wanting that. He came up through our minor-league system and actually profiled as a pretty good center fielder. So it’s something that he wants and he’s going to compete for and he’s going to have an opportunity to do.” O’Neill will get a chance to test himself out in competitive games before the MLB season starts, since he’s slated to play center for the Canadian team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

O’Neill, 28 in June, will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, but his 2021 was excellent. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. Defensively, he played exclusively in left field but got strong marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a 6.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Given his all-around contributions, he was deemed to be worth 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve.

However, he couldn’t maintain that kind of production in 2022, perhaps due to injuries. A shoulder impingement and hamstring strain each caused stints on the injured list, limiting O’Neill to 96 games on the season. His batting line dropped to .228/.308/.392, wRC+ of 101, with his defensive grades also slipping.

Since center field is considered a more challenging defensive position than the corners, O’Neill could potentially be even more valuable than he was in 2021. Of course, that would be contingent both on his health and his ability to be a viable center fielder. As Marmol mentioned, O’Neill came up playing center in the minors, but it wasn’t much. He logged 55 innings in High-A in 2015, 71 innings in Triple-A in 2017 and then another 50 2/3 innings at that level in 2018, the year he made his major league debut. In the majors, he has 210 2/3 innings there so far, most of that coming last year. It’s hard to get meaningful reads on a limited sample like that, especially because he was hurt at times last year, but he’s at least been around average. Both DRS and OAA have him at an even zero so far, while UZR has him slightly in the positive range at 0.8.

Carlson, 24, got much more center field experience in the minors, including getting around 800 innings at that position in both 2018 and 2019. Since making it to the majors, he’s logged over 1,000 innings in center with solid grades, including 6 DRS and 2 OAA, though UZR has him slightly below average at -1.0.

On the defensive side of things, he’s probably a more straightforward solution for the club, but his offense hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling that O’Neill has. In 312 major league games, he’s hit 29 home runs and stolen eight bases. His .247/.323/.407 batting is just a bit above average with a 103 wRC+.

That kind of production is still strong for a capable defender in center, but if O’Neill is deemed worthy of a shot out there, it could open up other opportunities for the club. They have one of the best prospects in the league in Jordan Walker, though he will probably be best suited for a corner. He came up as a third baseman but only recently started playing the outfield since Nolan Arenado has dibs on the hot corner in St. Louis for years to come. Walker dabbled in center last year but spent far more time in right. He clobbered Double-A pitching last year by hitting .306/.388/.510 for a wRC+ of 128 at the age of 20.

Walker will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his promotion doesn’t seem far off. At some point, the Cards will have to figure out how to juggle the playing time between Walker, O’Neill and Carlson, as well as players like Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson. The designated hitter slot should be open this year with Albert Pujols now retired, but it seems like there will be a logjam at some point. It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” and inevitable injuries will surely lessen the crowding at some point, but there might be some tough choices for the club to make in the future.

All of their outfield options are still shy of reaching arbitration and come with years of affordable control, except for O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time and is slated for free agency after 2024.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Reds, Stephenson

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Ahead of their victory over Ryan Helsley in an arbitration hearing, the Cardinals reportedly discussed a multi-year deal with the right-hander, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Woo notes that the sides were far apart, with the biggest issue being Helsley’s durability. As Woo notes, the Cardinals were concerned with Helsley’s rarely pitching on back-to-back days last year, while Helsley’s camp pointed out that he frequently went multiple innings during appearances as an explanation for that.

Helsley pitched on back-to-back days eight times in 2022, with eighteen of his 54 appearances lasting longer than 1.0 IP, though just nine of his appearances involved pitch counts greater than 25. Whatever one makes of his durability, however, Helsley certainly turned in a dominant 2022 season as he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA good for a 306 ERA+, meaning he was more than three times more effective than the league average pitcher in 2022. That performance was backed by a strong 2.34 FIP thanks to Helsley’s fantastic 39.3% strikeout rate and solid 8.4% walk rate. His K-BB% of 31 ranked fourth best in the majors last year among those with at least 60 innings of work.

For his part, Helsley told reporters that there were “no hard feelings” between himself and the organization, though he noted that the arbitration process was a tough one and that he and other players “wish it was a little different.”

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will likely see more time off from his duties behind the plate this year, manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bell plans for Stephenson to catch around 65 games this season, with about 80 games split between the DH slot and first base, allowing him to play around 140-50 games this season. Stephenson was limited to just 50 games and 183 plate appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but he hit well in those appearances, slashing .319/.372/.484, good for a wRC+ of 134. That overall line was likely helped by an inflated .409 BABIP, but as a career 119 wRC+ hitter, Stephenson still figures to be a key cog in the Reds lineup in 2023 as long as he can stay healthy. The Reds are no doubt hoping that less time behind the plate will help Stephenson stay on the field this year, while still allowing him to primarily be a catcher. The Reds expect to roster three catchers headed into Opening Day, with Curt Casali and Luke Maile both signed to big league deals.
  • Sticking with the Reds, Bell tells reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that his hope is to have more than one left-handed reliever in his bullpen this year. Reiver Sanmartin is the only lefty currently expected to be part of Cincinnati’s Opening Day bullpen, coming off a difficult season where he posted a 6.32 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 innings with the big league club. Two potential options to join Sanmartin in the bullpen this year are Daniel Norris and Alex Young, both of whom are in camp on non-roster invitations. Norris struggled in 2022, posting a 5.22 ERA (76 ERA+) in 58 2/3 innings split between the Cubs and the Tigers last year. Young, however, found success in 2022 pitching for the Guardians and Giants. The lefty posted a 2.36 ERA (175 ERA+) with a 2.89 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, almost all of which came in San Francisco.

Cardinals Win Arbitration Case Against Genesis Cabrera

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The Cardinals have won their arbitration case against Genesis Cabrera, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll now take home $950K in 2023, rather than the $1.15MM he filed for.

The left-hander had a down year in 2022, working to a 4.63 ERA across 44 2/3 frames for St Louis. Cabrera saw his strikeout rate crater to just 16.5%, and his home run rate increase by 3.1 percentage points.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic, Cabrera first appeared in the big leagues in 2019, but it was the following season that he really showed his promise. That year, Cabrera tossed 22 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball, combining an impressive 33.3% strikeout rate with a 16.7% walk rate. He fell back a little in 2021, but still posted a solid 3.73 ERA over 70 frame, picking up 28 holds in the process as the Cards afforded him more high leverage roles.

The 26-year-old throws a mid-90s fastball alongside a curveball and changeup. While the 2022 season was a step back for Cabrera, the Cardinals clearly believe in his arm enough to tender him a contract through arbitration. Another year like last may make that decision a little less likely next winter, but for now Cabrera figures to offer the Cardinals a valuable left-handed option out of the bullpen.

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