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Reds Sign David Carpenter

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The Reds have agreed to a deal with veteran reliever David Carpenter, according to the social media accounts of Cincinnati pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy and Carpenter himself. It’s a minors deal with an invite to MLB camp.

Carpenter didn’t exactly regain his former glory last year with the Rangers. But he did make it up for four MLB appearances — his first since way back in 2015. And Carpenter spun 38 2/3 innings of 1.63 ERA ball with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 at Triple-A.

It seems the righty has been back at work at the Boddy-founded Driveline Baseball this winter. (Here’s a video link on Twitter if you’d like to look for yourself.) We’ll see whether he can crack the Reds roster in camp, but moving back towards his once-customary 96 mph heat would surely help.

Reds Reportedly Exploring Francisco Lindor Trade Scenarios

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The Reds have “engage[d]” with the Indians in talks regarding shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s no indication to this point that the discussions are anything but exploratory in nature.

We’ve heard ongoing chatter regarding the Cleveland superstar. Lindor, who recently turned 26, is entering his second-to-last season of arbitration control and projects to earn $16.7MM. Having recently shipped out high-dollar hurlers Trevor Bauer (over the summer, to Cincinnati) and Corey Kluber (more recently, to the Rangers), the Indians are seemingly willing to listen on Lindor. But indication is that the club isn’t especially anxious to deal him.

While it’s still unclear whether there’s any significant likelihood of a swap coming together, it’s interesting to hear of ongoing talks from multiple quarters. The Padres and Dodgers are among the other organizations tied recently to Lindor, though in all cases we’ve yet to hear of anything approaching a concerted effort to pry loose the star shortstop.

No doubt it’d take a massive array of talent to coax the Indians into moving Lindor. Though it’s now quite difficult to imagine he will be retained for the long haul with an extension, he’s also still a reasonably priced young star on a team that is still in an open competitive window. The Indians can plausibly hope to cover the outgoing pitching from within, though they undoubtedly sacrificed quite a lot of near-term upside in the form of Bauer and Kluber. But there’s really no replacing Lindor.

Whether there’s a path to a deal remains to be seen, but the involvement of the Reds could help spur movement on the market. It is especially notable that the Cincinnati organization has recently hammered out complicated, multi-player deals with the Indians — as well as the Padres and the Dodgers, who could consider moving Corey Seager as part of or in a follow-up to a Lindor acquisition. Hypothetical possibilities abound. At minimum, the report makes clear that the Reds are still scanning the market in search of major improvements.

Reds Sign Wade Miley

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An already impressive Reds rotation became deeper Wednesday, as the team announced the signing of left-hander Wade Miley to a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $15MM. (The Reds, unlike most clubs, revealed the basic contractual terms themselves.) The pact also contains a club option for the 2022 season that is reported to be worth $10MM and comes with a $1MM buyout. Miley, a client of O’Connell Sports Management, will earn $6MM in 2020 and $8MM in 2021, and he can reportedly take home another $500K annually via an incentives package. The contract nearly matches the two-year, $16MM prediction MLBTR made for Miley at the outset of free agency.

Miley, 33, gives the Reds a southpaw option to add to a rotation that already included a highly talented quartet of right-handers: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. At least on paper, plugging in Miley as the last member of the group upgrades the Reds’ rotation and improves their chances of breaking a six-year playoff drought in 2020.

Miley was also a free agent in each of the past couple offseasons, but this is the best the well-traveled hurler has done on the open market thus far. After settling for a minor league deal and reviving his career as a member of the Brewers in 2018, Miley joined the Astros for a $4.5MM guarantee last winter.

That proved to be a decent deal for both sides, as Miley — despite continuing to throw fastballs in only the 90 mph range — helped the Astros to an AL West title with 167 1/3 regular-season innings of 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP ball with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate. He wasn’t without his warts, though, as a brutal stretch of starts in September eventually led to Miley being omitted from the Astros’ World Series roster. Nevertheless, Miley’s body of work over the past two seasons is undeniably solid and has clearly convinced many in the industry that he’s again a viable rotation piece.

For Miley, heading to Cincinnati reunites him with pitching coach Derek Johnson. It was Johnson, then Milwaukee’s pitching coach, who helped bring Miley’s career back to life a couple years ago. And now that the Reds’ rotation appears to be complete, they’re free to turn their focus to other needs (shortstop? Catcher? Outfield? Bullpen?) as they continue to seek a return to relevance.

From a payroll vantage point, the team should have some financial breathing room in order to further add to the existing roster. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $124MM Opening Day payroll that is a stone’s throw away from last year’s Opening Day mark of roughly $126MM, but owner Bob Castellini and the Reds’ front office have preached aggression as they’ve moved from a longstanding rebuilding effort and shifted into a win-now mentality in what looks to be an increasingly vulnerable NL Central division.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link). Joel Sherman and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post added details on the incentives and option value (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

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With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

NL Notes: Giants, Bumgarner, Bauer, Manfred, Padres, Yates

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The Giants “remain engaged” on franchise legend Madison Bumgarner, according to the last check of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman (link). Obviously, the word “engaged” can be taken to mean any number of things–ranging from casual contact to protracted negotiation. It is notable, though, that Bumgarner’s longtime team apparently hasn’t been scared off by the increasing amount of competition for his services.

Since November, we’ve heard the Twins, Padres, Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals all linked to the lefthander to varying degrees. It became clear that MadBum’s reps were seeking something in excess of $100MM after they apparently passed on a reported $70MM-plus offer from Arizona earlier this offseason. Recent ceiling-raising deals for Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole have likely only helped position such a nine-figure contract as a probable outcome.

More Saturday notes from around the NL…

  • Add Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer to those critical of proposed changes from Rob Manfred and the league office. Well, perhaps “critical” doesn’t exactly do Bauer’s Saturday comments justice–perhaps “scorched earth” would be a better descriptor? “At least Rob Manfred is trying to ruin baseball at all levels and isn’t discriminating,” Bauer said on Twitter today. “Something to be said for consistency, I guess.” Bauer then asked followers what their “most hated Rob Manfred idea” was, before following up with a second tweet that characterized Manfred’s proposed changes as a “money grab”. While players should be entitled to their own opinions, it rates as newsworthy to see a public-facing employee criticize a central administrative office so, well, publicly. Whether other players share Bauer’s enmity toward proposed changes–which center around minor league contraction–is an open question.
  • Although it still remains to be seen if his club will make a front-end addition to its pitching staff, Padres GM AJ Preller certainly feels like their Drew Pomeranz addition will help make its bullpen one of MLB’s best. “I think the way Drew pitched at the end of last season, what Kirby’s done the last three years and especially last year, we feel really good about the back part of our bullpen,” Preller said of pairing Pomeranz with closer Kirby Yates, as quoted in an article from Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Interestingly, Preller also made some comments that, if we’re inclined to close reading, could be seen as something of a statement on Yates’ future with the club. “If that ends up being something that plays out for us over the course of Drew’s four years, and we have lights out back of the bullpen, that would be ideal, honestly,” Preller said. Yates only has one year of control remaining, and extension talks have seemed rather touch-and-go to this point. Preller didn’t mention the Hawaiian by name in the last part of that quote, and his use of the word “ideal” should also be noted; still, it does give some indication of how the team’s top baseball operations mind envisions the club’s pen in future seasons. Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune relayed that the club plans to resume contract talks with Yates after, in Preller’s words, the club gets “a better sense of where we’re at payroll wise, where we’re at roster wise” over the next few weeks.

Latest On David Price Trade Talks

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It seems more and more plausible that the Red Sox will end up working out a deal involving lefty David Price, MLB.com’s Mark Feisand reports. The Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, and Angels have all shown varying degrees of interest in the 34-year-old, per the report.

Price is still owed $32MM a year for the next three seasons. That’s a big chunk of change for a 34-year-old who has made just 63 starts over the past three seasons — including 22 starts in a 2019 campaign that was cut short by elbow and wrist issues. Price was the embodiment of durability from 2010-16, pacing the Major Leagues with 1529 1/3 innings over that seven-year stretch, but he’s totaled just 358 frames over the past three seasons.

When on the field, of course, Price remains an effective pitcher — albeit one whose weighty annual salary no longer aligns with his rate of compensation. Dating back to 2017, Price owns a 3.75 ERA and 3.82 FIP. The 2019 season resulted in one of the worst ERAs of Price’s career (4.28), but he did give some reason for optimism with a career-high 10.7 K/9 and 28 percent strikeout rate. Price’s control remained solid (2.7 BB/9, seven percent walk rate), and his 21.0 K-BB% was the second-best of his career. Stranding runners was an issue, and a career-high .336 average on balls in play against him assuredly did Price no favors. Ultimately, though, Red Sox ownership’s desire to drop back below the luxury tax line is the driving factor in moving Price, whose seven-year, $217MM contract comes with a $31MM annual luxury hit.

Feinsand notes that the Red Sox have no desire to attach a desirable young player such as Andrew Benintendi to Price in order to simply shed the remainder of his contract. The Athletic’s Chad Jennings offers a similar sentiment (subscription required). “I don’t think we’d ever want to rule anything out,” chief baseball office Chaim Bloom of parting with prospects to help facilitate a Price trade (quote via Jennings). “But so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Sox would be forced to simply include cash along with Price in a trade. The Boston organization could certainly acquire another unpalatable contract in return, thus helping to . The Padres have discussed the possibility of including Wil Myers in a deal, for instance, although there’s no indication that such talks gained any traction. Myers himself is owed a regrettable $61MM over the next three seasons and just wrapped up an ugly .239/.321/.418 effort, striking out in 34.2 percent of his plate appearances along the way.

Free Agent Notes: Akiyama, Hill, Romo, Kim, Rojas

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Notes on some prominent names on the open market…

  • We heard earlier today about Shogo Akiyama’s camp meeting with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link) adds that Akiyama and company also spoke with the Rays and Reds.  Contracts in the range of $8MM-$10MM over two years were discussed — this is a step up from MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $6MM deal, though Akiyama’s higher ask could reflect the level of interest in his services, not to mention this offseason’s thin center field market.
  • Rich Hill has been in touch with multiple teams, the veteran lefty tells The Athletic’s Andy McCullough (subscription required), including his top two choices of the Dodgers and Red Sox, as well as “a whole bunch of other teams that are going to be contenders in 2020.”  Though Hill won’t be able to pitch until midseason due to primary revision surgery on his UCL, he is “definitely not opposed to signing now.  I think that does give the opportunity for the team, to be honest, to benefit from my experience as a whole. You’ve got a guy who comes into Spring Training as a veteran, and can help younger guys out.”  Despite numerous injuries in recent years, Hill has been borderline elite when he has been able to take the mound, posting a 2.91 ERA, 3.79 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 over 466 1/3 innings since the start of the 2015 season.
  • The Red Sox have some interest in Sergio Romo, though they “don’t seem to be the most aggressive suitor” for the veteran reliever, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes (Twitter link).  The Athletics, Marlins, and Twins have all been linked to Romo’s market this offseason, and there was some belief last week that he could sign his new deal before the end of the Winter Meetings.
  • Left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim “is believed to be seeking a three-year deal,” according to Jeff Sanders and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  It seems like something of a bold ask from a 31-year-old pitcher who is coming to the big leagues for the first time, especially since there isn’t agreement as to whether or not Kim is best suited for a starting or relieving job against MLB competition.  (Kim is reportedly looking to start.)  That said, Kim’s salary demands aren’t known, and since at least six teams are known to have interest, it can’t hurt to aim high in the early days of his posting period.
  • Another player from the KBO League, Mel Rojas Jr. is also hearing from several Major League clubs, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets.  Rojas was a third-round pick for the Pirates in 2010 who played seven seasons in the minors before joining the KT Wiz prior to the 2017 season.  Since going to South Korea and the hitter-friendly KBO League, Rojas has posted an impressive .310/.377/.561 with 85 homers over 1590 PA.  Rojas is looking for guaranteed deal for a return back to North American baseball, as he’ll otherwise probably remain with the KT Wiz.

Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish

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The latest on several pitchers…

  • The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
  • Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
  • Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
  • Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.  The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
  • The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.

Kole Calhoun Market Taking Shape

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We’ve yet to hear much of anything this winter regarding Kole Calhoun — a reflection both of the primacy of starting pitching on the market and the devaluation of the long ball around the league. The veteran corner outfielder has waited his turn as teams chase higher-priority targets.

Now, it seems some attention is beginning to turn to Calhoun and other possible targets. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays, Reds, Brewers, and Marlins all have some level of interest in the 32-year-old.

Calhoun was paid a $1MM buyout by the Angels when his long-time team decided not to pick up his $14MM option. He popped 33 home runs in 2019 and has long been respected as a hard-nosed grinder with a quality glove, but his nice season wasn’t enough to warrant that level of pay even on a one-year deal.

While Calhoun has at times produced well-above-average offensive numbers, his context-adjusted output wasn’t exceptionally productive in 2019. Over 552 plate appearances, he maintained a .232/.325/.467 batting line, good for a 108 wRC+. That was an improvement on his average-ish 2017 and awful 2018 showings with the bat, but hardly an otherworldly effort. Calhoun walked at a career-best 11.1% rate but also went down on strikes at a personal-worst 25.6% clip.

The initial list of potential pursuers doesn’t seem to portend a bidding war. The Fish are biting this year, but don’t seem likely to go wild. They’re also looking at quite a few other options, as are the Reds. The Blue Jays and Brewers both make sense but don’t seem likely to spend past their internal valuations for a player such as Calhoun. Of course, it’s certainly possible that other clubs are in the picture or could join it depending upon outcomes with other segments of the market.

FA Rumors: Reds, Ozuna, Giants, Didi, Brewers, Thames, Rox, Chirinos

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The Reds continue to show interest in free-agent corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of MLB Network relay. In fact, the Reds and Ozuna’s camp have been in contact in the past 24 hours, Morosi adds. However, Ozuna is not expected to sign during this week’s Winter Meetings, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Instead, he seems inclined to wait for third basemen Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson to sign, which Sherman observes would leave him as the top bat on the open market (though Nicholas Castellanos may have something to say about that). A four-year deal is in play for Ozuna, Sherman suggests.

  • The Giants, Brewers and Reds were the runners-up for shortstop Didi Gregorius, per reports from Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The presence of his former Yankees manager Joe Girardi in Philadelphia helped influence Gregorius to take the Phillies’ one-year, $14MM offer on Tuesday. Of the other teams involved, the Giants’ inclusion is particularly interesting. They already have an expensive veteran shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who has a sterling defensive reputation. Speculatively, the Giants could have been after Gregorius with the intention of playing him at second base. They wound up acquiring a different infielder, former Angel Zack Cozart, on Tuesday.
  • The Brewers are considering a reunion with first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames, general manager David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters Tuesday. The club bought out Thames’ option for $1MM last month in lieu of paying him $7MM next season, but doing so left the Brewers dangerously thin at first base. Outfielder Ryan Braun may be an option at the position, but manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday (via Haudricourt) that he’s not going to be the Brewers’ primary choice there in 2020.
  • Robinson Chirinos, Austin Romine and Matt Wieters are among the available catchers the Rockies have spoken with, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. The offensively solid Chirinos looks like the most appealing of the trio, as he could earn a multiyear contract worth in the neighborhood of $10MM. Whether the Rockies would be willing to go to those lengths is unknown, though it’s obvious they need help behind the plate. Their catchers (including current starter Tony Wolters) posted bottom-of-the-barrel offensive production in 2019.
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