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Phillies Outright Odubel Herrera To Triple-A, Claim Nick Martini

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TODAY: Herrera has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, the Phillies announced.

JANUARY 14: The Phillies announced Tuesday that center fielder Odubel Herrera has been designated for assignment. His 40-man roster spot will go to Nick Martini, whom the Phillies have claimed off waivers from the Reds.

Not long ago, such a move would’ve been unthinkable for the Phils, who extended Herrera on a five-year, $30.5MM deal spanning the 2017-21 seasons. However, Herrera sat out the the final 85 games of the 2019 season under a domestic violence suspension, and even when he was on the field in 2019, he failed to produce at the plate or with the glove. After batting .281/.325/.452 and drawing strong defensive marks across the board as recently as 2017, Herrera turned in an awful .222/.288/.341 line in 2019 with below-average marks from Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

While Herrera has played poorly in each of the past two seasons, he might well have been given another chance in 2020 were it not for the charges levied against him and the subsequent suspension. He’s still owed a hefty $19.5MM under that aforementioned extension, but the Phils are apparently willing to eat the remainder of that contract to cut ties with Herrera.

During Herrera’s absence, he was surpassed on the depth chart by former No. 8 overall pick Adam Haseley, who debuted with a .266/.324/.396 slash line and plus defensive ratings (per DRS, UZR and OAA) — all of which look to be improvements over Herrera’s 2018-19 play. The Phils could yet look to add a platoon partner for the left-handed-hitting Haseley, or they could play the versatile Scott Kingery in center field against tough lefties. Speedy Roman Quinn remains on hand as an option as well, and he’ll surely make the club given that he’s out of minor league options.

Martini himself will give the Phils another option at any of the three outfield spots, as he has at least 1900 minor league innings in left, center and right field. The left-handed-hitting Martini has been a veritable on-base machine in the upper minors, hitting at a robust .305/.401/.435 clip in parts of five Triple-A seasons.

While he doesn’t hit for much power, Martini has walked in 13.5 percent of his career plate appearances in Triple-A. That general profile has carried over to the big leagues, where in 288 plate appearances between the Padres and A’s, Martini has slashed .269/.372/.380. He still has a minor league option remaining, so Martini will give the Phillies some roster flexibility in addition to his intriguing on-base prowess.

The Phillies will have a week to trade Herrera, put him on outright waivers or release him. It’s likely that they’ve tried and failed to find a taker for his services prior to designating him for assignment, though, and he’ll surely go unclaimed on waivers. He doesn’t yet have five years of MLB service, so while he could reject an outright assignment, doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of his contract, which obviously won’t happen. If the Phils wish to retain him, they could outright him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. If not, the likeliest outcome is that they’ll simply release Herrera, at which point any club would be able to sign him for the league minimum (which would be subtracted from the sum owed to him by the Phillies). Whether he’d even draw interest at that minimal level of commitment remains to be seen, however.

Reds Sign Nate Jones

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The Reds have agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Nate Jones, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. The deal includes an invitation to big league camp. Jones would earn at a $1.5MM rate in the majors with up to a million more in incentives, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twitter).

In Jones, the Reds are getting a native of nearby Kentucky who, when healthy, has been one of the game’s most effective relievers during his career. Jones, who debuted in 2012, owns a sterling 3.12 ERA/3.38 FIP with 9.82 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent groundball rate over 291 1/3 innings – all of which have come in a White Sox uniform.

The problem is that staying healthy has been extremely difficult for the 34-year-old Jones, which is why the Rangers declined his $3.75MM option in favor of a $1.25MM buyout in October after acquiring him in a midsummer trade. It’s also why he’s now settling for a non-guaranteed pact a few months later. A series of injuries, including right forearm surgery last season, have held Jones to 30 or fewer innings in four of the past five years. He threw a meager 10 1/3 frames in his final season as a member of the White Sox.

Despite Jones’ lack of contributions in recent years, it’s easy to see why the Reds are taking a low-risk chance on him. As mentioned, the results have been impressive when Jones has pitched. Moreover, although he lost 2 mph on his fastball during last year’s limited run, he was still throwing 95. And during his latest semi-extensive action, a 30-inning showing in 2018, Jones recorded a 13.6 percent swinging-strike rate that sat well above the league mean of 10.7.

Health permitting, Jones will vie for a role in a Cincinnati bullpen that hovered around average in 2019. Although the front office has been active in upgrading the team’s roster this winter, the bullpen hasn’t undergone any especially significant changes. Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen and Robert Stephenson figure to lead the unit again in 2020, but perhaps Jones will surprise and join them as one of the Reds’ key late-game options.

NL Central Notes: Wieters, A’s, Cards, Arenado, Akiyama, Brewers

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The Cardinals and Athletics were first linked to Matt Wieters during the Winter Meetings, and a month after those initial reports, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that St. Louis and Oakland continue to have interest in the veteran backstop.  Wieters served as the Cards’ backup catcher last season, hitting .214/.268/.435 with 11 home runs over 183 plate appearances and 67 games — perhaps more playing time than was expected, given that workhorse Yadier Molina was limited to 113 games due to thumb injuries.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes (Twitter link) that the Cardinals have an offer out to Wieters and are hopeful of a reunion, to the point that a locker has been kept open for Wieters.  The A’s would also be looking to use Wieters as a backup catcher behind promising youngster Sean Murphy, though Wieters could potentially have a larger role if Murphy were to struggle in his first full MLB season.

More from the NL Central…

  • Nolan Arenado has been frequently mentioned as a trade possibility for the Cardinals, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch feels a potential deal with the Rockies “probably won’t” happen.  Roadblocks include Arenado’s contract, which is both expensive and contains an opt-out clause after the 2021 season.  While Arenado is a clear upgrade over virtually any other third baseman in the game and Matt Carpenter is coming off a rough 2019 campaign, Carpenter’s presence as the Cards’ in-house third base option further complicates matters since Carpenter is unlikely to carry much trade value.  In terms of moving him to another position, Paul Goldschmidt has first base covered, and Frederickson writes that “the team has thoroughly dismissed the notion of Carpenter spending time in the outfield again.”
  • The Reds’ offseason plans put an early priority on Shogo Akiyama, and the outfielder told reporters (including The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans) that Cincinnati was the first team to make him a contract offer.  “I was very inspired by their passion for how much they really wanted me.  I wanted to respond to that.  That’s why I chose the Reds,” Akiyama said via an interpreter.  Several other teams had interest in Akiyama’s services, though the Reds came out on top with a three-year, $21MM deal with the center fielder.  Akiyama becomes the first Japanese player in Reds history, and Rosecrans’ piece explores how the team has looked to improve its Asian scouting practices in recent years, as former Reds GM Walt Jocketty preferred to focus Cincinnati’s international signing efforts towards Cuban players (i.e. Raisel Iglesias, Aroldis Chapman).
  • With Jedd Gyorko now in the fold, Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that he is “comfortable” with the club’s remodeled infield.  “We feel like we have a number of players who fit in a variety of different ways, and that’s really helpful,” Stearns said. “It gives us options.  It gives us depth. It allows us to see not only how the rest of the offseason unfolds, but how the first part of the season unfolds, in terms of how we want to structure a roster, how we want to play different players.”  Many of the Brewers’ infield pickups (Gyorko, Luis Urias, Eric Sogard, Ryon Healy) have multi-position capability, while first base has also been addressed with Justin Smoak as the top complement to Ryan Braun, who is slated for time at both first base and in the outfield.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Reds Avoid Arbitration With Trevor Bauer

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The Reds have worked out a deal with right-hander Trevor Bauer, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll pitch for $17.5MM in 2020 rather than going to a third-straight hearing.

The MLBTR/Matt Swartz model projected a beefier raise than the $4.5MM that Bauer will ultimately receive. But as Matt explained recently in a detailed breakdown of Bauer’s case, the model’s predicted $5.6MM raise (to a $18.6MM salary) felt a bit lofty when examining specific recent comps.

It’s an important number, not just for Bauer and the Reds. As the above-linked post explains, this sets a new reference point for pitchers of this type — i.e., those that have thrown a lot of innings and perhaps even produced a big strikeout tally in their platform year, but with uninspiring results in the earned-run department.

Bauer had secured big victories in hearings with the Indians in each of the prior two offseasons. But he saw eye to eye with his new organization, which picked him up in a surprising trade in the summer of 2019.

This time around, Bauer was carrying a somewhat less enticing statistical record. He racked up the innings (213) and strikeouts (253), but ended the 2019 season with only a 4.48 ERA as well as a losing record (which does factor for arbitration).

Reds Have Shown Interest In Corey Seager

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The Reds came into the winter ripe for an upgrade at shortstop, but they haven’t done much at the position thus far. The club’s biggest move there has been picking up light-hitting veteran Freddy Galvis’ $5.5MM option. As things stand, Galvis is slated to enter 2020 as the Reds’ starter at short, though they have their sights set on a much more notable option. Cincinnati has “shown interest in” the Dodgers’ Corey Seager throughout the offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

There is no indication the Dodgers are about to trade Seager, nor is it clear what the Reds would be willing to give up for him. No doubt, though, he’d cost a significant amount in assets. Seager, who debuted in 2015, won NL Rookie of the Year honors the next season, has earned a pair of All-Star nods, and has established himself as one of the game’s most well-rounded shortstops. While the past two seasons were injury-truncated campaigns for Seager, the 25-year-old nonetheless put up 3.3 fWAR and hit .272/.335/.483 with 19 home runs across 541 plate appearances in 2019.

Any team acquiring Seager would be getting a player with two arbitration-eligible seasons left, not to mention someone who’s projected to rake in a more-than-reasonable $7.1MM in 2020. The Dodgers – despite a fairly quiet offseason so far – continue to have the makings of an elite team, so there’s no pressure on their part to give up Seager. That said, dealing Seager would bring back a valuable return that could help LA in another area, and it would free up short for super-prospect Gavin Lux or, in a less probable scenario, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. The Dodgers have shown interest in Lindor, but if we’re to believe Indians brass, it’s unlikely he’ll change homes prior to the season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/20

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The latest minor league moves from around baseball….

  • The Reds signed southpaw Brooks Raley to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (via Twitter).  After posting a 7.04 ERA over 38 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2012-13 and then spending 2014 back in the minors, Raley headed for the Lotte Giants of the KBO League.  Raley posted a 4.13 ERA, 2.79 K/BB rate, and 7.5 K/9 over 910 2/3 innings in Korea, starting all but one of his 152 outings.  If the 31-year-old Raley can carry over some measure of that form from the KBO League, he’ll provide the Reds with some veteran rotation depth at the Triple-A level, putting him in line for another crack at the majors in the event of an injury to Cincinnati’s starting five.
  • The Orioles have outrighted right-hander Marcos Diplan to Triple-A Norfolk, the team announced.  Diplan cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week to create roster space for the newly-signed Kohl Stewart.  Diplan has a 3.88 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 1.85 K/BB rate over 540 2/3 career minor league innings, working mostly as a reliever (starting seven of 38 total appearances) in 2019, pitching for the Double-A affiliates of the Twins and Brewers.  It has been a busy transactional stretch for Diplan, who was claimed off Minnesota’s waiver wire by the Tigers in September, and then claimed again by the Orioles in December.

Latest NL Central Chatter

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It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.

More from the NL Central:

  • The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
  • There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
  • The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer’s arbitration cases have gone to a hearing two years in a row, and he has emerged victorious both times. However, his 2019 performance was weaker in several ways, and it remains to be seen how big a raise he can get over his $13MM salary from 2019 in his last year before reaching free agency.

My model does see him getting a sizable $5.6MM raise, mainly due to his career-high 213 innings and 253 strikeouts. After putting up a 2.21 ERA in 2018, Bauer regressed back to a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and actually had a losing record of 11-13 for the first time in four years. This was not merely bad luck either. His FIP worsened by nearly two runs as well, going from 2.44 to 4.34. Of course, with a very low HR/FB in 2018, his FIP benefited. But SIERA adjusts for this and still saw nearly a one-run deterioration from 3.21 to 4.14 for Bauer. Bauer walked a career high 82 hitters while allowing 34 home runs. Despite his higher strikeout total, his K/9 fell slightly from 11.3 to 10.7 in 2019.

Arbitration panels do not use sabermetric stats like FIP or SIERA very frequently, so Bauer’s case will largely come down to his robust 213 innings versus his 4.48 ERA. Finding similar comparables is tricky, but several potential pitchers do emerge.

If we focus on pitchers with at least 180 innings pitched but ERA’s over 4.0 who were entering arbitration for the third or fourth time, we get four pitchers in recent years that seem comparable. Each got raises between $3.0 and $3.55MM, obviously less than Bauer’s $5.6 million projection. Of course, none struck out hitters at anywhere near the clip that Bauer did. Patrick Corbin in 2018 had the highest total strikeouts of the bunch with 178 in 189.2 innings and a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 14-13 record. He got a $3.55MM raise. With fewer innings and way fewer strikeouts, Corbin’s case is clearly weaker. Tanner Roark’s 9-15, 4.34 performance in 180.1 innings earned him a similar raise last year ($3.53MM), while Andrew Cashner’s 184.2 innings and 6-16, 4.34 performance only got him $3.1MM back in 2016. Hector Santiago got a $3.0MM boost in 2017 after going 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings. Each of these four pitchers had a weaker case than Bauer, so his floor is probably in the mid-3’s.

If we flip things to look for pitchers with similar strikeout totals, only three guys with similar service time had 225 strikeouts going into their third of fourth year of arbitration during the last five years. David Price got a $5.75MM raise five years ago after a 15-12, 3.26 campaign, in which he threw 248.1 innings and struck out 271 batters. That case is probably somewhat stale though, even if Price clearly had a better case than Bauer does now. More recently, Gerrit Cole got a $6.75MM raise last year and Jacob deGrom had a $9.6MM raise. The 1.70 ERA that deGrom posted en route to a Cy Young Award clearly makes him a poor comparable for Bauer. Even Cole’s 2.88 ERA is a run and a half better than Bauer’s 4.48. Cole went 15-5 in 200.1 innings and struck out 276. Cole’s $6.75MM raise is obviously a ceiling.

It seems unlikely that Bauer will fall below Patrick Corbin’s $3.55MM raise or best Cole’s $6.75MM raise, and should land somewhere in between. To get the $5.6MM the model projects, he may need to argue that Price’s $5.75MM raise from 2015 is too stale to be relevant, which puts him somewhere in the vague range between Corbin and Cole. I suspect Bauer may not get quite up to that point, although if he does take his case to a panel again, he could quite easily get there if the Reds aim too low. Bauer will certainly be an interesting reference point for pitchers with significant innings and strikeout totals who put up mediocre traditional statistics in future years, since it is obvious that few such cases currently exist.

Reds Designate Nick Martini

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The Reds have designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon was among those to report on Twitter. His roster spot will go to just-signed outfielder Shogo Akiyama.

Martini was added in an offseason waiver claim. He might’ve been given a shot at carving out a reserve or platoon role in camp — and perhaps still could, if he clears waivers and depending upon the remaining course of the Reds’ offseason. But the addition of Akiyama, another southpaw swinging player who can handle center field, largely obviated the team’s need for Martini.

There’s a chance Martini will be claimed again. He has been an unstoppable on-base force at Triple-A in the past two seasons and had quite a nice showing in his 2018 debut with the Athletics. Martini doesn’t have much power and took a step back in limited opportunities last year. It’s important to note, too, that he has mostly been limited to facing right-handed pitching in the majors. But the general profile — a tough out with ample experience at all three outfield spots — holds some appeal.

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