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Juan Soto

A Battle Of NL East Superstars

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We’ve seen two of the brightest young offensive stars in baseball emerge in the National League East over the past couple years. The Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Nationals’ Juan Soto have been enormously successful since they made their debuts in 2018, and the outfielders have played important roles in helping lead their clubs to prominence. The Braves have taken the division in each of Acuna’s two seasons, while Soto was among the reasons the Nationals won their first-ever World Series last fall. The two look as if they’ll be franchise cornerstones for the long haul, but if you can only have one, which player would you pick?

Going by production, there hasn’t been a huge difference in their careers so far. The 22-year-old Acuna’s a 9.3-fWAR player through his first 1,202 plate appearances and a .285/.365/.532 hitter with 67 home runs, 53 stolen bases and an excellent wRC+ of 133. The righty masher fell just shy of a 40/40 effort in 2019, when he smacked 41 dingers and swiped an NL-high 37 bags. Furthermore, Acuna has fared respectably as a defender thus far – including as the Braves’ primary center fielder last year – with 16 DRS and a minus-0.6 UZR to this point.

By measure of wRC+, Soto has been an even more effective hitter than Acuna. Soto, who only became old enough to legally drink as last year’s World Series was going on, owns a jaw-dropping 143 mark in that category. The lefty swinger’s a .287/.403/.535 batter with 56 homers and 8.5 fWAR through 1,153 PA, though he doesn’t come close to Acuna in terms of stolen bases (17). Acuna’s overall defensive output has also been better, but Soto did make strides in that area last season. After putting up minus-6 DRS and minus-4.2 UZR as a rookie in left field, he improved to zero and minus-0.7 in those categories as a sophomore.

The overall numbers Acuna and Soto have managed at such young ages have been astounding. But you can’t just consider production when comparing the two. One of the key facts about Acuna is that his team has already locked him up for the foreseeable future, as the Braves extended him to an eight-year, $100MM guarantee after his first season. With $17MM club options for 2027 and ’28, the deal could keep Acuna in place for almost the whole decade. That’s a lengthy commitment and a lot of money, but it has nonetheless always come off as a no-brainer move from Atlanta’s perspective.

The Nationals would surely love to sign Soto to a similar pact, but it’s hard to believe they’ll get him on such a team-friendly deal. At the very least, though, they do still have the right to control the Scott Boras client for the next half-decade, including one more pre-arbitration year if a season does take place in 2020.

The bottom line is that you can’t lose with either of these players, no doubt two of the greatest assets in the sport. But you’re only allowed to build around one of them, so take your pick…

(Poll link for app users)

Giving The Sixth Man Of The Year Award To Howie Kendrick

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For those in the Mid-Atlantic, the Nationals and Astros road warrior World Series is airing on MASN this week. For the rest of us, the 7-game battle has hardly disappeared from memory, as it remains the most recent non-exhibition game played in Major League Baseball. Still, when a player steps up his game on the biggest stage and raises his profile like Howie Kendrick did last fall, it’s hard not to look back early and often to re-live the heroics.

Strictly by definition, Kendrick wasn’t even an “everyday player” for the Nationals last season. Coming off an achilles injury and playing in his age-35 season, manager Dave Martinez was rigid about giving Kendrick enough rest to keep him fresh throughout the season. No matter the volume of clamor from Nationals fans, Martinez refused to deploy Kendrick indiscriminately, starting him in only 70 of the team’s 162 games (with liberal usage off the bench). Kendrick was the designated hitter of choice for Martinez in 7 of 10 interleague road games, and he also called upon Kendrick 41 times as a pinch-hitter.

While Kendrick found himself on the bench more often than not, he still added value as a versatile defender. Of the games he did start, 35 came at first base, 18 at second, and 10 at third. Unlike years past, Kendrick wasn’t utilized in the outfield, but it’s hard to know if that was a strategic decision made to shelter Kendrick. The Nats simply had no need to deploy him in the grass having gotten uncharacteristically stable play from their trio of outfielders. Juan Soto started 147 games in left, Victor Robles made 147 starts between center and right, and even the previously-fragile Adam Eaton made 143 outfield starts in 2019 (his most since 2016).

Whatever the reason, it’s hard to knock the Nationals’ prudent use of Kendrick. Not only did he stay healthy, but he came through time and time again, finishing with an otherworldly slash line of .344/.395/.572 across 370 plate appearances. If baseball had a sixth man award, it would be intended to spotlight a season exactly like Kendrick’s 2019. He was Lou Williams: high-energy, low-maintenance, instant offense off the bench.

And like Williams, Truck could close. Without a true sixth man award, Kendrick took the postseason as his opportunity to shine. It’s hard to imagine a player of Kendrick’s pedigree seizing quite so many opportunities for heroics in a single postseason (I see your hand, David Freese, but I’m not calling on you). As in his career on the whole, Kendrick wasn’t perfect. He made a couple of errors, looked foolish on the bases at times and finished the postseason with a slash line (.286/.328/.444) that one could easily overlook.

But in terms of peak value, Kendrick made his hits count. First, there was the series-winning, 10th-inning grand slam in the winner-take-all game five to vanquish the Dodgers. Considering this was just the Nationals second win in a winner-take-all-game in their history (coming a week after their first), Kendrick’s grand slam was, at the time, no doubt the biggest hit in Nationals’ team history. No longer could the Nats be shrugged aside as a franchise without a postseason series win (Mets fans on Twitter will have to find something new). With a history as long and storied as baseball’s, it’s rare these days to have the opportunity to watch in-real-time as moments exists in a self-actualized vacuum wherein each big hit instantly supplants its prior as the biggest in team history – but that was the case for the Nats this postseason, and Kendrick was the guy who kept outbidding himself with greater and greater moments.

Kendrick didn’t get that scene-stealing moment in the NLCS, but he did capture MVP honors by hitting .333/.412/.600 with four doubles. Kendrick was great against the Cardinals, but let’s be clear, he was not the most valuable piece of the Nats’ NLCS puzzle. That would be the starting pitchers, who didn’t allow an earned run until game four, yielding just 7 hits across those three games while striking out 28. When everyone is an ace, no one is an ace, so Kendrick took home the hardware for continuing to put together quality at-bats and driving home important runs.

But there’s no such thing as a transcendent playoff performance that doesn’t include the World Series. Pitching again took centerstage for the Nats, especially as the bats went ice-cold at home. The Nats scored just one run apiece in each of their home games, taking the L in all three. Kendrick went one-for-eight at home while only starting in games four and five. He had a good game two in Houston, but it was a relatively punchless series for Kendrick by the time he came to the dish in the top of the seventh inning of game 7, his club trailing by one. Kendrick’s biggest moment of the postseason – of his career – gave the Nats their fifth come-from-behind victory of the playoffs – the most ever – and it solidified his place in the baseball canon.

What made Kendrick’s postseason play so impressive, really, was how late it came it a good-but-not-great career. The bulk of Howie’s career took place on good-but-not-great Angels teams that, like Kendrick himself, were often quite good, but failed to make a lasting impact on the baseball landscape.

Kendrick himself went from productive regular to bench contributor for the Dodgers and Phillies before making his way to Washington. Now, you’ll be hard-pressed to find an announcer in the game who hasn’t referred to Kendrick as a “professional hitter.” To their collective credit, they’re not wrong. Kendrick is a career .294 batter who consistently puts the bat on the ball, never striking out in more than 20.4% of his plate appearances. Most seasons his strikeout rate hovers around 16-17%, though in 2019 he was even better, striking out a career-low 13.2% of the time.

Kendrick can hit, but that’s far and away his best skill. His 9.2% walk rate in 2016 with the Dodgers was easily a career-high. His career rate is 5.4%. He runs okay, but not great, notching double-digit stolen bases in 8 different seasons, but never more than 14, a high he reached four times. Generally speaking, he’s about a 14-stolen-bases level defender as well, sure-handed as a second baseman, but never threatening as a top shelf defender. Power-wise, his career .137 ISO leaves a lot to be desired, but he hit for just enough power to leverage the rest of his skillset. He was an All-Star once (2011) when he finished with 4.6 bWAR, and his “best season” earned him an 18-spot in MVP voting. That came in 2014, his last with the Angels, when he put up 6.1 bWAR/4.6 fWAR, which is impressive considering it was one of his worst power outputs, finishing .293/.347/.397 with just 7 home runs.

But in 2019 everything clicked for Kendrick. He managed 17 home runs while easily notching career highs in many rate metrics (ie, .228 ISO, 146 wRC+). Before last season, he’d never been more than 23% better than league average. But achilles surgery clearly agrees with Kendrick, because at age-35, not only was he 46% better than average, but he put a bow on his career year with the final game-winning hit of the season. More than any award, that’s the type of thing baseball remembers.

Nationals Renew Juan Soto’s 2020 Contract

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The Nationals have renewed Juan Soto’s contract and will pay the outfielder $629.4K in 2020, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  The two sides were unable to agree on a salary for 2020, and thus the Nationals simply set their own figure for Soto’s contract in the coming season, as is the team’s right since Soto is a pre-arbitration player.

Each club has its own methodology for determining how much beyond the $563.5K minimum salary pre-arb players can earn, usually based on some type of formula that assigns extra money for service time and/or significant achievements.  Pre-arbitration players can’t really negotiate since the club controls their rights, so the large majority of pre-arb players simply agree to whatever figure is offered.  Some pre-arb players coming off particularly outstanding seasons, however, feel they should be better rewarded for this performance, and sometimes opt to turn down the team’s offered raise rather than accept what they feel is simply inadequate compensation.

Needless to say, Soto has delivered far above and beyond the slightly more than $1.1MM in salary he has earned over his first two MLB seasons.  As Soto enters his age-21 season, the phenom has already hit .287/.403/.535 with 56 homers over 1153 plate appearances, and played a primary role in the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship.  As per Fangraphs’ evaluations, Soto has already delivered $67.9MM worth of production with his 8.5 career fWAR.

The Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty was another young star who took a renewal this spring rather than accepting his club’s terms, and several other notable players (including Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and even Soto’s Nats teammate Ryan Zimmerman) have also their pre-arb deals renewed over the years.  Flaherty described his decision to turn down the Cards’ offer as a matter of “principle,” and a protest against baseball’s salary structure rather than against his particular team.

As we saw with Trout, Snell, and Zimmerman, contract renewals didn’t lead to hard feelings that prevented those players from signing lucrative multi-year extensions with their teams.  There seemingly hasn’t been much news about a potential extension between Soto and the Nationals, though since Soto is controlled through the 2024 season, there isn’t any huge urgency on Washington’s part.

That said, Soto will become arbitration-eligible next winter and is sure to qualify as a Super Two player, so he’ll take four trips through the arb process instead of the usual three.  That will only make Soto’s price tag rise even higher if he continues to perform at his elite level, and thus the Nats would certainly have interest in gaining some cost certainty over the young superstar.  Scott Boras, Soto’s agent, is usually more likely to advise his clients to test free agency rather than accept an extension, and Soto would potentially be in line for a record-setting contract since he is scheduled to be a free agent in advance of his age-26 season.  Boras does have a long history of doing business with the Nationals, however, so it wouldn’t be surprising if a deal was indeed worked out to keep Soto in the District.

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.

Boras Dishes On Opt-Outs, Upcoming Free Agents

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The upcoming free agent market will be shaped to an unusual degree by agent Scott Boras and his clients. That’s true not just because he represents so many of the top players heading to the open market, but because several of his clients have opt-out opportunities this fall. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but Boras did offer at least a few subtle hints in the course of an interview with Jon Heyman and Josh Levin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link).

He was asked first about Stephen Strasburg, who just turned 31 and is presently polishing off an excellent and healthy campaign. Given a chance to chat about the talented righty, Boras was muted. Indeed, he began by pointing out that Strasburg can opt out either this winter or next — which is true, and notable, but isn’t exactly a patented Boras sales pitch.

So, does that mean that Strasburg is leaning against an opt out and/or that Boras will recommend he hang onto his four-year, $100MM commitment? That’s impossible to say. And Boras made clear we shouldn’t assume any such thing, saying: “I make it a practice to not discuss anything with players about their contracts until they’re done performing and certainly we’ll have time to address that and I’m sure Stephen will give me direction on it.”

Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.

Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.

Whether it’s fair to read anything into these comments is up for debate. Strasburg is famously quiet and may simply prefer his agent support that low profile. But those decisions are of critical importance to the respective teams and the overall market landscape. While their names were at least mentioned, Boras unsurprisingly passed on the chance to highlight Elvis Andrus and Jake Arrieta — two other clients who don’t seem to be in position to strongly consider opting out of their deals.

Boras also largely passed when asked to comment on two key Nationals players, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Boras says the team has made clear its “strong interest” in retaining Rendon. Having previously sputtered, contract talks won’t start again until the Nats wrap up the 2019 campaign. It still seems unlikely that a deal will be made before Rendon has a chance to test the market, though that’s not written in stone.

As for Soto, Boras acknowledged some recent comments from president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo regarding the team’s obvious interest in a long-term deal with the exceptional young hitter. But he did not read more into them than was intended or give any hint that there was particular interest or disinterest in dealmaking on the part of the 20-year-old Soto. “Those are things that we kind of leave in the space of the offseason before we ever begin discussion,” said Boras.

If there was another topic that really seemed to pique Boras’s interest — aside from the need to protect the health of players, in relation to the recent Kris Bryant injury — it was the upcoming free agency of Nicholas Castellanos. The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”

With Castellanos having “taken advantage of that situation to illustrate his skills,” and shown the defensive chops of one of the “ten to twelve best right fielders in the game,” Boras obviously feels he’s got a significant piece to market. Castellanos is still just 27 years of age and has certainly impressed in Chicago, but it remains less than clear just how robust his market will be. Boras says he believes “everyone understands now what kind of ballplayer that Nick Castellanos is.” And that may be true. But what isn’t clear is whether teams really believe Castellanos to be more than a 2.5 to 3 WAR range of performer — and whether they’ll be willing to commit big money over a lengthy term to acquire such a player.

NL Notes: D-Backs/Greinke, Keller/Rodriguez, Cards, Nats

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Zach Buchanan of The Athletic recently took an interesting look at the Diamondbacks’ recently concluded experience with big-money starter Zack Greinke. While you’ll want to read the entire piece (subscription link), a few comments from team president Derrick Hall are worth highlighting here in particular. “If you’re going to make that kind of commitment, you have to be sure that it’s going to push you over the top,” said Hall of the Greinke signing. “That was clearly a lesson learned.” Though the contract didn’t exactly sink the club — Greinke generally performed to his pay grade and the Snakes were able to get some value out of the tail end — it did make it difficult for the organization to put together a complete roster that was truly competitive and surely shaped the team’s decisionmaking when it came to retaining (or not) core talent. Hall did not rule out any major future splashes, but did suggest a somewhat different strategy is likelier going forward. The Arizona org will “probably prefer spreading and balancing out those salaries more evenly,” he says, thus “making sure you have that flexibility so that, when the time comes, if you want to add more significantly, you can.”

Let’s catch up on a few notes from around the National League …

  • The Pirates welcomed prized righty Mitch Keller back to the big leagues yesterday. It was a long-anticipated return after a rough showing in his initial promotion earlier this year. Keller was effective through five innings, allowing one earned run on five hits while recording four strikeouts and a pair of walks. He is now in line to get a full trial down the stretch. Before the game, the team created roster space by placing reliever Richard Rodriguez on the 10-day injured list. Rodriguez is said to be dealing with shoulder inflammation. The 29-year-old has certainly not been in top form this year, turning south after a breakout 2018 showing. While his velocity has held steady, his swinging-strike rate has plummeted from 13.8% to 9.6%. Though Rodriguez has maintained a solid 3.72 ERA, it has come in spite of his poor peripherals (7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.9 HR/9).
  • The Cardinals announced yesterday that they have relieved assistant hitting coach Mark Budaska of his duties. He’ll be replaced by Jobel Jimenez, who had served as the club’s Triple-A hitting coach prior to his promotion. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) interprets the decision as one that “underscores [the] commitment to hitting coach Jeff Albert.” Indeed, the organization is working to spread Albert’s “comprehensive offensive strategy throughout [its] system.” Albert, who has spent time in the Cardinals and Astros organizations prior to taking on the current role in the fall of 2018, discussed his philosophies with David Laurila of Fangraphs not long after getting the gig. Goold had previously examined Budaska’s importance to the Cards’ developmental system before the hiring of Albert. As for Jimenez, he’s a well-known commodity to the St. Louis front office, having spent more than a decade working on the Cardinals farm.
  • Finally, the Nationals appear optimistic on the health outlooks of two superstars. The club believes it has dodged a bullet with outfielder Juan Soto, as Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links). Soto was able to participate in baseball activities yesterday after initially fearing he had suffered a significant ankle injury in his latest contest. Meanwhile, ace Max Scherzer continues to make steady progress in his quest to move past a back issue. He remains slated for a sim game and is said to be feeling well, but the team still isn’t confident of a particular timeline. ***Update: Soto is in today’s lineup, while Scherzer threw his sim game as scheduled.

Juan Soto Exits Game With Right Ankle Sprain

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Nationals outfielder Juan Soto left Sunday’s matchup with the Mets in the seventh inning after suffering an apparent ankle injury while rounding third base. Following the Nats’ win, Sam Fortier of the Washington Post reports that Soto suffered a mild ankle sprain and that X-rays came back negative. Soto has been listed as day-to-day.

Needless to say, Sunday’s victory was a bittersweet one after a nerve-wracking scene saw the team’s star 20-year-old roll his ankle while rounding third. However, it appears that the Nationals and their fans can breathe a tentative sigh of relief; the injury won’t require an IL stint and Soto likely won’t miss an expended period. In fact, Alex Chappell of MASN adds that Soto suggested that he may be able to return to the lineup as early as tomorrow. Of course, it seems likely that the Nationals will be careful not to rush their phenom back to action, but it’s a promising sign that Soto anticipates a hasty return.

Soto has entered rarefied air with prodigious offensive success at such an advanced age, displaying elite plate discipline and power that has fueled a .944 OPS this season, solidifying himself as a cornerstone of the playoff-hopeful Nationals lineup. Should he miss a game or two over the next few days, the Nationals are well-equipped with Gerardo Parra on tap to step into the lineup. Parra, though surely an offensive downgrade from the unparalleled Soto, has enjoyed a successful Nats tenure, posting a solid .845 OPS in 58 games as the club’s reserve outfielder.

Nationals Place Juan Soto On 10-Day IL

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Per a team release, the Nationals have placed OF Juan Soto on the 10-Day IL with back spasms. Outfielder Andrew Stevenson was recalled to take his place.

Though the injury isn’t said to be serious, it’s a tough blow for a Nats lineup already down Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Ryan Zimmerman.

Soto, 20, set the league ablaze last season, rocketing in two months from Low-A to the big leagues, where he posted an astounding .292/.406/.517 mark with the league’s third-highest walk rate, arguably the best ever season from a teenage bat. The lefty was off to a slower start this year, though his 15.2% walk rate still ranked among the league’s best.

Health Notes: Kluber, Ohtani, Donaldson, Soto, Turner

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We can expect an update tomorrow from the Indians on injured righty Corey Kluber, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. It’s not yet known whether Kluber will require surgery for a forearm fracture. Even if he’s able to avoid a procedure, though, he’s likely to be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. Kluber is one of the game’s most accomplished hurlers, even if he hasn’t quite been himself to open the yea. The hope is that he’ll at least be able to target a late-summer return.

While we wait to learn more on that health situation, here’s the latest on a few others of note from around the game:

  • Shohei Ohtani is nearing activation by the Angels, manager Brad Ausmus tells reporters including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The precise timeline isn’t yet clear, but the DH is expected to return to action before the club opens a homestand on May 17th. Ohtani won’t be able to make it back to the mound this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2018 season, but he’ll be able to contribute from the batter’s box.
  • The Braves seem to have averted a significant problem with third baseman Josh Donaldson and his ailing calf. That’s the same area that wiped out a huge chunk of his 2018 season. But Donaldson is due back this weekend, manager Brian Snitker tells reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). The 33-year-old Donaldson has thus far rewarded the faith of the Atlanta organization, slashing a smooth .258/.395/.495 through 119 plate appearances with the club.
  • There’s also generally positive news for the Nationals on the injury front. Outfielder Juan Soto was held out tonight owing to back spasms, but MLB.com’s Jamal Collier tweets that an MRI did not reveal any cause for concern. It’s not yet clear when he’ll be back in action, but Soto hasn’t gone on the injured list and will likely be slotted right back in the lineup as soon as he feels up to it. The club also can begin to look forward to a return from shortstop Trea Turner. As Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter), Turner is moving a bit faster than had been expected and could be ready to begin swinging a bat this weekend. That’s a significant step for a player nursing a fractured finger.

Poll: The Rookie Of The Year Awards

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The results of the AL and NL Rookie Of The Year Award balloting will be announced tomorrow, capping off a season that saw one of the more distinguished rookie classes in recent history make some immediate impacts in the big leagues.

Put it this way — Walker Buehler, Brad Keller, Jaime Barria, Dereck Rodriguez, Ramon Laureano, Lou Trivino, Seranthony Dominguez, Jack Flaherty, and Harrison Bader all had strong-to-outstanding rookie campaigns in 2018, yet none of this group is expected to crack the top two in balloting in their respective leagues.  (The AL rookies might not even reach the top four.)  The races in both leagues have been dominated by some major names and eyebrow-raising statistics, leaving voters with a tough choice as the regular season ended.  As a reminder, the Rookie Of The Award doesn’t cover the postseason, so Buehler’s performance during the Dodgers’ NL pennant run has to be ignored.

Let’s sort though the big six options and then let the MLBTR readers decide on their preferred choices…

National League

This has been a two-horse race between the Braves’ Ronald Acuna and the Nationals’ Juan Soto for months.  While a quick breakout wouldn’t have been surprising for either player (Acuna was heralded as baseball’s top prospect prior to the season, while Soto was also ranked in the 20-60 range of preseason top-100 prospect lists), it was still rather stunning to see both post numbers that will net them some MVP votes, let alone Rookie Of The Year consideration.  Making it an even more difficult choice for voters, both players had remarkably identical numbers:

Acuna: .293/.366/.552 over 487 PA, 26 homers, 78 runs, 143 wRC+, 144 OPS+, 3.7 fWAR

Soto: .292/.406/.517 over 494 PA, 22 homers, 77 runs, 146 wRC+, 142 OPS+, 3.7 fWAR

Adding to the similarities, both posted slightly below-average defensive numbers (Defensive Runs Saved, UZR/150) as left fielders, though Acuna boosted his overall DRS and UZR/150 totals with 96 2/3 solid innings in center field and right field.  The two also had similar amounts of batted-ball luck — both had a .366 xwOBA, indicating that each was moderately fortunate with their real-world weighted on-base averages (Soto .392, Acuna .388).

Soto supporters can point to their man’s OBP edge, plus the fact that Soto did all of this during his age-19 season, setting several Major League single-season records for a teenage player along the way (such as highest OBP, highest OPS, and most walks).  Acuna fans can counter with the argument that the Braves outfielder was only 20 years old, accomplished his feats in the heat of a pennant race, and could’ve outpaced Soto in numbers had Acuna not missed a month on the disabled list with a sprained ACL.

American League

All eyes were on Angels right-hander Shohei Ohtani in his attempt to become the first two-way player in the modern era, and the results were astounding.  As a hitter, Ohtani posted a 152 wRC+, 22 homers, and a .285/.361/.564 slash line over 367 plate appearances.  As a pitcher, Ohtani had a 3.31 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and 2.86 K/BB rate over 51 2/3 innings, before arm problems that eventually required postseason Tommy John surgery derailed his time on the mound.

After Aaron Judge was the unanimous AL Rookie Of The Year pick in 2017, the Yankees’ youth movement continued as Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar quickly stepped into everyday roles at second and third base, respectively.  Torres was the centerpiece of the prospect package New York received from the Cubs in the 2016 Aroldis Chapman trade, and the infielder lived up to the hype by hitting .271/.340/.480 with 24 homers over 484 PA.  Andujar swung an even mightier stick, with 27 homers and a .297/.328/.527 slash over 606 plate appearances.

While none of the five rookies featured were contributors on defense, the Rays’ Joey Wendle’s excellent glovework at multiple positions fueled his value.  This combination of solid defense and a strong bat (.300/.354/.435 over 545 PA) resulted in Wendle posting a 3.7 position player fWAR that tied both Acuna and Soto in the category among all rookies in baseball.  Wendle was in many ways the manifestation of the Rays as a whole in 2018 — an unheralded player who surprised many by emerging as a versatile and productive threat.

With these choices in mind, who would be your ROY choice if you had a ballot?  (NL poll link for app users)(AL poll link for app users)

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