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Dodgers Select Four Players

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The Dodgers have selected catcher Diego Cartaya, infielder Michael Busch and outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca to the 40-man roster, per a team announcement. That quartet is now protected from being taken in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

It’s a notable group to join the 40-man roster. Cartaya, Busch and Pages, in particular, all rank among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in the game, with Cartaya drawing a particularly impressive placement at No. 9 overall.

The 21-year-old Cartaya split his 2022 season between Class-A and High-A, where he was notably younger than the league average at both levels. The age gap didn’t deter him, however, as he turned in a combined .254/.389/.503 batting line with 22 home runs and doubles alike. Cartaya is considered a work in progress with the glove but boasts huge raw power and a keen eye at the plate, evidenced by a walk rate north of 14% in 2022.

Busch, meanwhile, is a second baseman who slugged 32 home runs, walked at an 11.5% clip and struck out in 26% of his plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line shows plenty of promise, even though scouting reports question his overall defensive value. BA lists him 46th on its top 100.

Pages, ranked 72nd by BA, hit .236/.336/.468 in 132 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A, more than holding his own against more advanced pitching. He also fared well in the Arizona Fall League, batting .296/.398/.506 in his 98 plate appearances there. He swatted 26 home runs in Double-A this year and 31 in High-A a year ago, and BA notes that Pages has some of the best raw power of any prospect in baseball.

As for DeLuca, the 24-year-old doesn’t draw the same fanfare as today’s other three additions, but his .260/.347/.541 batting line, 25 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and 17 stolen bases were convincing enough for the Dodgers to protect him. DeLuca fanned in just 14.3% of his 119 plate appearances in Double-A this year, and while that’s a small sample from a late-in-the-year promotion, it likely tickets him for a return effort there to begin the 2023 season. With a strong showing, he could be in Triple-A before long, and a look in the Majors next season is certainly plausible now that he’s in the upper minors and on the 40-man.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:

1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today

The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.

2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening

Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.

3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight

Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.

NL West Notes: Bellinger, Longoria, Diamondbacks, Johnson

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With former MVP Cody Bellinger projected to earn $18.1MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility, there has been plenty of speculation that the 27-year-old might not be tendered a contract.  Los Angeles president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was non-committal about Belllinger’s situation, telling reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers “still very much believe in Belli’s ability,” and that the club has “time to work through what everything looks like” prior to Friday’s deadline.

Unsurprisingly, Bellinger’s agent Scott Boras was quick to downplay the idea of a non-tender, as Boras highlighted his client’s excellent defense, throwing arm, baserunning ability, and age (27).  “You just don’t find talents like this….It’s really about getting his strength back so he can repeat his skill level,” Boras said, noting the injuries that may have caused Bellinger’s huge dropoff at the plate over the last two seasons.  Bellinger has hit only .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 campaign.  However, both Boras and Friedman pointed to the idea that a normal and healthy offseason could help Bellinger get on track, as Bellinger’s regular work with the Dodgers’ hitting coaches and conditioning staff was interrupted last winter by the lockout.

Other notes from around the NL West…

  • Evan Longoria said last month that the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks were his preferred destinations for his final season, with the D’Backs listed alongside Longoria’s two former teams because the veteran third baseman has a home in Arizona.  As such, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks are indeed expected to check in on Longoria in free agency.  The 37-year-old has hit a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season, but injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games.  Josh Rojas’ versatility would allow for Longoria to get some time at third base and at DH, and the D’Backs are looking for right-handed hitting in general.  As Piecoro notes, Longoria has some extra appeal as a veteran leader on a young team.
  • Also from Piecoro’s post, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters that “we have had half the league, at least, talk about our outfielders.”  With so many left-handed hitting young outfielders on the roster, it isn’t surprising that teams are eager to discuss trades about Arizona’s surplus.  However, Hazen quieted rumblings that a trade would occur soon, saying “we’re just starting to get a handle on what type of offers we could make and what makes sense for us to help our major league team.”
  • It doesn’t appear as though Pierce Johnson will re-sign with the Padres, a source tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Elbow tendinitis cost Johnson most of the 2022 campaign, as he pitched only 14 1/3 innings over 15 appearances in the regular season and then 4 1/3 more frames during the playoffs.  The 31-year-old Johnson had strong (3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate) numbers over 78 2/3 innings in 2020-21, albeit with a high 11.1% walk rate.  Since San Diego seems to be moving on, Johnson and his excellent curveball could be an intriguing bounce-back target for the many teams looking for bullpen help in free agency.

Blake Treinen Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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The Dodgers announced to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that right-hander Blake Treinen has undergone “right shoulder labrum and rotator cuff repair surgery.” The recovery process is about 10 months, meaning it’s possible Treinen will miss the entire 2023 season.

After a dismal 2019 campaign, Treinen was non-tendered by the A’s and signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Dodgers for 2020. It was a nice bounceback season for him, as he posted a 3.86 ERA while getting grounders on an incredible 64% of balls in play. The Dodgers were impressed enough to re-sign him for two years and $17.5MM with a 2023 club option worth $8MM.

In 2021, he took his game up a notch. Though his strikeout rate had been just above 20% in 2019 and 2020, he shot it up to 29.7% last year. He still got ground balls at a really strong 52.6% clip, helping his ERA drop down to 1.99. He also got pushed into more high leverage situations, earning seven saves and 32 holds.

2022 hasn’t been as pleasant, unfortunately. He appeared in three games in April before landing on the IL due to shoulder discomfort. He was transferred to the 60-day IL in May but the Dodgers nonetheless agreed to an extension with Treinen shortly thereafter. The extension was for $8MM in 2023, effectively guaranteeing the club option that was already in place. In addition, it came with a new club option for 2024, with a value somewhere between $1MM and $7MM. Where it falls in that range will depend upon Treinen’s health and other factors over the course of the deal.

Treinen did return to the hill this year, making a couple of appearances in September before returning to the IL. He was activated for the NLDS and made one postseason appearance, though he must have been using the last bits of strength his shoulder had. It was reported a couple of days ago that surgery seemed to be likely, and it has now indeed come to pass.

This is surely a disappointing development for Treinen personally but also for the Dodger club that took a gamble on him six months ago. They will now be on the hook for $8MM next year and that is quite likely to be a sunk cost. The 10-month recovery window makes it possible Treinen returns very late next year but he will have to rebuild strength and effectiveness after a long layoff. That makes it tough to count on him for anything. The exact calculus that goes into determining the final value of the 2024 option isn’t known, though Treinen’s upcoming extended absence will likely result in it finishing in the low end of that $1-7MM range. The club will surely make their decision based on how his health responds between now and one year from now. Treinen is currently 34 and will be turning 36 in June of 2024.

Dodgers Close To Re-Signing Clayton Kershaw

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November 11: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the deal is actually close to $20MM.

November 10: Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are nearing an agreement on a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Earlier today, the Dodgers decided against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer, but it’ll be a moot point anyway now, with the 34-year-old set to return to LA for a 16th season. Mike DiGiovanna adds that the deal will be “close” to the $17MM deal Kershaw signed last winter.

While his days of utter dominance may be behind him, Kershaw turned in another elite season in 2022, throwing 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. For the second-straight season, injuries limited Kershaw to 22 starts, and he made two separate trips to the IL this season with lower back problems. When healthy though, he was very effective posting a 27.8% strikeout rate alongside his usual immaculate walk rates. While his fastball velocity is down considerably since his prime, Kershaw has shown his incredible skill to be able to alter his usage and lean more heavily on his slider to maintain his highly successful numbers as he’s aged.

It’s hard to imagine Kershaw in any other uniform but Dodger blue, and while there’s often been reports of possibly looking to return to his hometown of Dallas and sign for the Rangers, it’s no real surprise to see him staying in LA. By doing so he’ll move closer to ticking off more milestones along his Hall of Fame career. His 12 pitching wins in 2022 take him to 197 in his career, so he’ll certainly notch up win number 200 next season. While pitching wins are largely irrelevant when assessing a player’s ability, it is a notable milestone and one to take a tremendous amount of pride in, and Kershaw will be just the fourth active pitcher to reach 200 behind Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer. He’s also 193 strikeouts shy of 3,000. That mark is less likely to be reached in 2023, given Kershaw hasn’t reached 190 in a season since posting 202 in 2017.

The milestones are just reward for a player who has been a mainstay atop some dominant Dodger rotations decade or so. Drafted seventh overall out of high school in 2006, Kershaw would make his Dodgers debut as a 20-year-old in 2008. Just a year later Kershaw would begin a staggering run of dominance in which he’d post ten-straight seasons with a sub-3 ERA. In fact, his rookie year was the only year he posted an ERA over four, and there were only two other seasons where it was over three. It was between 2011-17 that Kershaw was at his absolute best though. During that period he won three Cy Young awards (and never finished outside the top-five), one MVP, led the league in ERA in five times, and posted one 300 strikeout campaign.

The rotation was set to be an area of focus for the Dodgers this winter as Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Kershaw all headed for free agency, with Anderson the only one to receive a qualifying offer. Kershaw will slot back in alongside Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin to form the core of a very strong rotation. Dustin May, Ryan Pepiot are both internal candidates to fill out the rotation, but it’s more likely the Dodgers seek another arm to solidify the backend. That decision may well be made for them in fact, as there’s at least a decent chance that Anderson opts to accept the qualifying offer and return to the Dodgers on a one year, $19.65MM deal.

The Opener: Relief Market, Kershaw, Yoshida

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals

The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.

2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal

Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.

3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest

It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.

Dodgers Decline Club Option On Justin Turner

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The Dodgers announced they’ve declined their $16MM option on Justin Turner. The third baseman receives a $2MM buyout and heads to free agency.

Turner, 38 later this month, struggled to establish himself in his first few seasons in the big leagues, struggling in his time with the Orioles and Mets. He joined the Dodgers for the 2014 season and busted out with a .340/.404/.493 batting line, production that was 58% better than league average according to wRC+.

Since that time, he’s been a mainstay in Los Angeles, playing at least 103 games in each season outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s continued to be a consistently above-average hitter, never finishing a season with a wRC+ below 123. His power has often been strong, though never elite. He’s hit 27 home runs three times but never more than that. His bat-to-ball skills are quite strong, however, as he’s never posted a strikeout rate higher than 18%, well below the typical league average, with this year’s ending up at 22.4%.

Twice in his Dodger career, Turner has reached free agency and re-signed with the club. After the 2016 season, they agreed to a four-year reunion that came with a $64MM guarantee. He returned to the open market after 2020 and then re-signed with the Dodgers again, this time for a two-year, $34MM deal with a club option for 2023. That option was for $16MM with a $2MM buyout.

For the first half of 2022, Turner’s age-37 season, it seemed like he would make the decision very easy for the Dodgers. Through the end of June, he was hitting a paltry .227/.298/.375, wRC+ of 90. However, he completely flipped the script in the second half, hitting .340/.412/.514 for a wRC+ of 163 from the start of July onwards. That left his combined line pretty close to his typical level of production, as the result was a .278/.350/.438 slash for a 123 wRC+. That surely gave the club much more to think about, but they have still opted for the $2MM buyout instead of the $16MM salary.

While it’s always possible he and the team could reunite at a different price point, it’s now possible that the club sees a lot of turnover in its infield. Shortstop Trea Turner is also heading to free agency, meaning the club is potentially subtracting two Turners from the left side of the infield. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman recently spoke about how the club is open to having Gavin Lux slide over from second base to shortstop to take over for Trea, and it’s possible they feel the same way about having internal replacements take over the hot corner. Prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022, and though he struggled in his limited MLB time, he has tremendous minor league numbers. In Triple-A this year, he hit .304/.404/.511 for a wRC+ of 129. If they were willing to let he and Lux take over the left side of the infield, they could then dedicate their resources to the pitching staff and center field, where Cody Bellinger is a non-tender candidate.

If Turner does have to find a new employer for 2023, he will have one thing working in his favor. He will easily be the top option on the third base free agent market. Since Nolan Arenado decided not to opt out of his deal with the Cardinals, the best remaining options are utility players like Brandon Drury, Jace Peterson or Aledmys Diaz. Those players all are intriguing in one way or another but none of them has the track record of consistent offensive production like Turner does. Given his age, Turner won’t be able to secure a lengthy pact, but that will also appeal to certain clubs that prefer to avoid those types of deals.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Shoulder Surgery Under Consideration For Blake Treinen

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Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen battled shoulder discomfort in 2022 and missed the bulk of his year. Unfortunately, that remains a problem heading into the offseason, and it seems as if the injury will carry into next season.

L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this evening the team and Treinen are still working through treatment possibilities. While Gomes characterized surgery as one of multiple options under consideration, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register ominously reports that a procedure is “likely.” If Treinen did have to go under the knife, Plunkett adds, he’d require a 10-month recovery period and thus miss most or all of the 2023 campaign.

Treinen was limited to just five regular season appearances this year. He was on the injured list from April to September. Reinstated at the start of September, he made just two appearances before going back on the IL. The Dodgers activated Treinen for the postseason, calling upon him just once.

The injuries that caused that stop-and-start remain a concern, and Plunkett writes that both Treinen’s rotator cuff and labrum would be fixed if he goes under the knife. That’s certainly not what the Dodgers envisioned when signing the right-hander to an $8MM contract for 2023 in May. That deal also contains a club option for the 2024 campaign that’d be valued anywhere between $1MM and $7MM depending upon Treinen’s health for next season. Obviously, surgery wiping out much or all of his season — if necessary — would make it unlikely the Dodgers would trigger the option.

During his last healthy season, the veteran sinkerballer was one of the sport’s top late-game arms. The former All-Star worked to a 1.99 ERA across 72 1/3 innings in 2021, racking up grounders at a 52.6% clip.

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