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Poll: Who’s Winning The Offseason In The NL West?

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The calendar has flipped to February and the start of Spring Training is just a matter of days away. While some notable free agents (including nine of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents for the 2024-25 offseason) remain unsigned, most clubs have already done the heavy lifting in terms of preparing their roster for the 2025 season. In the coming days, we’ll be taking a look around the league at which clubs have had the strongest offseason to this point. So far, the Mets and Cubs have decisively won the polls covering the NL East and Central respectively. Today, the focus shifts to the NL West.

The west coast represents the class of the National League given that they’ve represented the senior circuit in the World Series in each of the past two seasons. The division has sent at least two teams to the postseason in each of the past five seasons, and this offseason finds three of the club’s five teams firmly in win-now contention windows while a fourth has also begun acting aggressively. Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The reigning World Series champions may have stayed mostly on the sidelines during the bidding for top free agent and $765MM man Juan Soto, but that in no way means they’ve had a quiet offseason. The Dodgers have been one of the league’s most active teams this winter, re-signing Teoscar Hernandez and Blake Treinen, extending Tommy Edman, and also making a number of additions in free agency. The club kicked off the winter by poaching lefty Blake Snell from their division rivals in San Francisco and haven’t let up since, adding Michael Conforto to the outfield and Hyeseong Kim to the infield while bolstering the bullpen with both Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, arguably the two best closers available in this winter’s market.

The most notable addition of the winter for Los Angeles, however, was surely longtime NPB phenom Roki Sasaki, who was posted despite not yet being eligible for anything more than a minor league contract and international bonus pool money. Getting Sasaki under such favorable terms would be a coup for any team, and it only serves to strengthen the Dodgers further. That’s not to say their offseason has been flawless, however. Their roster crunch reached a point where they had to sell off some of their less-necessary 40-man prospects and depth pieces like Diego Cartaya, Gavin Lux, and Ryan Brasier. Aside from that, the club’s biggest question mark in 2025 was the shortstop position, and that remains largely unaddressed as the club plans to give veteran star Mookie Betts another run at the position despite his lack of experience there. Even with a potential hole at short if Betts is unable to handle the position, however, the Dodgers have set themselves up well as they look to defend their World Series title in 2025.

San Diego Padres

It’s been a quiet and disappointing offseason in San Diego amid discord within the club’s ownership group and a clear budget crunch that has hampered president of baseball operations A.J. Preller all throughout the winter. The departures of Scott, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, and Ha-Seong Kim in free agency have left the club’s strong core without much of its supporting cast, and San Diego’s hopes of landing Sasaki were dashed by their rivals in L.A. despite a strong push that made them a finalist. The club’s only big league signing to this point in the winter has been re-signing Elias Diaz to help shore things up behind the plate. It’s a welcome addition but hardly a needle mover, and it seems as though the Padres may not be able to make more impactful additions without trading a player like Dylan Cease or Luis Arraez to clear salary.

Arizona Diamondbacks

After missing the playoffs by just a hair in 2024, the 2023 NL champions have not been resting on their laurels this winter. The club re-upped with Randal Grichuk yesterday to keep a key right-handed bat in the outfield mix, and while the losses of Joc Pederson, Christian Walker, and Josh Bell to free agency are all sure to sting the lineup the addition of Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians should help to ease that blow considerably. By far the club’s most notable addition, however, is that of Corbin Burnes. Arizona managed to reel in the offseason’s top pitching free agent on a surprisingly favorable six-year guarantee, and the 2021 NL Cy Young award winner will now join Zac Gallen at the top of an already-strong rotation that also features Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Jordan Montgomery. With that being said, the club still has one major question mark in the lineup after letting Pederson’s role as the regular DH go as-of-yet unfilled, and the club’s efforts to add a closer to their relief corps have not yet come to fruition either.

San Francisco Giants

Much like the Diamondbacks, the Giants’ offseason is highlighted by one major, splashy signing: they added shortstop Willy Adames to their infield on the largest free agent contract in club history, pairing him with recently-extended third baseman Matt Chapman to form a dynamic duo on the left side of the infield for years to come. Aside from that signing, perhaps the biggest addition to the Giants organization of the offseason was longtime franchise face Buster Posey taking over for the exiting Farhan Zaidi as president of baseball operations.

Since adding Adames just before the Winter Meetings, however, things have been fairly quiet in San Francisco. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander was brought in to help Logan Webb anchor the rotation after Snell departed for Los Angeles, but Verlander turns 42 later this month and it’s fair to wonder how much he has left in the tank after a difficult 2024 season. That appears to be all the club plans to do this winter, as Posey recently suggested that the organization feels “pretty set” with their offseason moves despite departures like Michael Conforto and Taylor Rogers having gone as-of-yet unanswered.

Colorado Rockies

Coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, the Rockies have continued to eschew the full rebuild strategy other bottom-feeders like the White Sox and Marlins have taken up in favor of retaining their veteran players to serve as a bridge to their younger pieces. That’s led to extremely quiet offseasons in recent years, and this one has been no exception to that. The club added some infield depth by signing Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer to one-year deals as they look to replace Brendan Rodgers, but those are the club’s only big league free agent additions of the winter.

Arguably their most impactful move was re-signing catcher Jacob Stallings on the heels of an excellent rebound season with the club last year, and he should help to solidify the catcher position until well-regarded prospect Drew Romo is ready to take over regular catching duties. The pitching staff has been almost entirely unaltered aside from the departures of Daniel Bard and Cal Quantrill, however, and there hasn’t been a bat brought in to replace the production of retiring franchise stalwart Charlie Blackmon.

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This offseason has been a bit of a mixed bag around the NL West, with three of its five clubs making multiple major additions to the roster but the other two having done very little to this point in terms of either buy-side or sell-side moves, instead largely remaining stagnant. The Dodgers have been, unsurprisingly, the most active club of the winter both within the division and arguably in baseball as a whole. With that said, however, Arizona’s coup in bringing Burnes into the fold and San Francisco’s record-setting deal for Adames are strong moves that could catapult either club back into the postseason after missing out last year. Colorado’s trend of modest offseasons has continued, however, and with the caveat that Preller can never be counted out when it comes to making bold moves, it seems that the Padres have elected to join them in that quiet approach to this point in the offseason.

Of the five NL West clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:

Which NL West team has had the best offseason so far?
Los Angeles Dodgers 77.03% (6,229 votes)
Colorado Rockies 8.31% (672 votes)
Arizona Diamondbacks 7.40% (598 votes)
San Francisco Giants 3.80% (307 votes)
San Diego Padres 3.46% (280 votes)
Total Votes: 8,086

Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier

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The Dodgers announced a trade sending reliever Ryan Brasier and cash considerations to the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. Los Angeles had designated the veteran righty for assignment on Thursday when they finalized the Kirby Yates signing. Teams have five days following a DFA to trade a player, so the Dodgers needed to find a deal by tonight or put Brasier on waivers. Chicago designated Rob Zastryzny for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move.

Brasier is quite a bit better than most players who end up in DFA limbo. The veteran righty had a strong season and a half in Los Angeles. He signed a minor league deal midway through the 2023 season after being let go by the Red Sox. Brasier had a dominant finish, turning in a 0.70 earned run average across 38 2/3 innings with Los Angeles. The Dodgers retained him on a two-year, $9MM free agent contract.

The 37-year-old was never going to replicate his late-season ’23 numbers. He had another decent year when healthy, working to a 3.54 ERA with a league average 22.7% strikeout percentage. Brasier kept his walk rate to a tidy 4.5% clip, in large part because he got opponents to chase 40% of pitches off the plate.

Health was the biggest caveat. Brasier suffered a significant strain of his right calf in late April. He was shelved into the middle of August and limited to 28 innings on the season. He had an excellent second half but was nevertheless relegated to low-leverage appearances during L.A.’s World Series run. Brasier allowed five runs with seven strikeouts and three walks across nine playoff innings.

The DFA is less a reflection of Brasier of “losing” his job and much more about L.A.’s bullpen depth. They added Tanner Scott and Yates after re-signing Blake Treinen. They join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia as bullpen locks. The Dodgers are going to run a six-man rotation, meaning they can only devote seven roster spots to relievers.

Brasier has well over five years of major league service. He cannot be sent to the minor leagues without his consent. The Dodgers could go back to an eight-man bullpen once Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation, since Ohtani doesn’t count against their 13-pitcher limit as a two-way player. They’re not going to push Ohtani’s elbow rehab merely to get another bullpen spot, so there’s probably only one available if all their relievers are healthy coming out of camp. Anthony Banda is out of options and seems likely to grab the final relief job.

The Cubs don’t have a ton of roster flexibility with their bullpen either. Chicago acquired Ryan Pressly last week. He’ll close games. Brasier joins Porter Hodge and Tyson Miller as high-leverage righties in front of Pressly. The Cubs added Caleb Thielbar on a $2.75MM free agent deal earlier in the winter; he projects as their top left-hander. Colin Rea is probably ticketed for long relief work.

That’d account for six of eight ’pen slots if everyone’s healthy. Eli Morgan and Nate Pearson may be next on the depth chart, but they both have a minor league option remaining. That isn’t the case for Julian Merryweather or Keegan Thompson. They’d each need to be in the majors or be designated for assignment. Thompson’s swing-and-miss ability probably gives him a leg up.

Brasier will make $4.5MM for the upcoming season. He’ll be a free agent at year’s end. It’s unclear how much of that the Dodgers are paying down. The Dodgers will save 110% in taxes on whatever money they managed to offload. If the Cubs had taken on the entire salary, that would have pushed them to around $211MM in luxury tax obligations (courtesy of RosterResource). They’re more than $30MM shy of the base threshold.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs were acquiring Brasier. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic first mentioned the Dodgers receiving cash considerations. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reported the return as a player to be named later or cash.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Dodgers Notes: Freeman, Glasnow, Rojas, Sheehan

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Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman led his team to the World Series championship in 2024, with series MVP honors to prove it. That postseason run came at the expense of his health, however, as he played through a bone bruise and sprain in his right ankle that eventually required him to undergo surgery in early December. At the time, the Dodgers suggested that Freeman would be able to “participate in baseball activities” during Spring Training, but that vague timeline did not set a date for when he would be ready to participate in games again.

Freeman himself offered a bit of clarity on the situation to reporters during the Dodgers FanFest event today. As noted by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Freeman has resumed swinging a bat again but has yet to start running to this point. With the start of Spring Training a matter of weeks away, it’s hardly a surprise that Freeman indicated he won’t be available for the first games of Cactus League play this spring. Freeman did say that he “expects” to be ready for the start of the Dodgers’ season in Tokyo on March 18, though of course with that just six weeks away a setback in his recovery could alter that timeline.

That Freeman should be ready for the start of the season is surely a relief for Dodgers fans, though it would hardly be a surprise if the club opted to be as careful with him as possible in order to ensure he starts the season on the right foot with as good of health as possible. The slugger’s .282/.378/.476 slash line in 147 games for the Dodgers in his age-34 campaign last year was a modest step back from his back-to-back top-4 MVP finishes in 2022 and ’23 but was still more than enough to put him on the shortlist for the very best first basemen in the sport last year. Freeman once again figures to help anchor the Dodgers lineup alongside fellow former MVPs Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani in 2025. It’s a lineup that largely looks the same as last year, though Michael Conforto has replaced Jason Heyward in the outfield mix while Hyeseong Kim has taken over for Gavin Lux at the keystone.

Aside from Freeman, however, the club appears to be generally healthy headed into Spring Training when looking at players who are expected to impact the 2025 team on Opening Day. Right-hander Tyler Glasnow was shut down in August due to an elbow sprain, but Dodgers Insider relays that Glasnow spoke at today’s fan event as well. The right-hander revealed that he’s resumed throwing and is feeling “as good as [he’s] ever felt.” The 31-year-old is one of the most dominant hurlers in the sport when healthy, but his 22 starts last year were a career high as he’s constantly battled injury woes throughout his career. With Glasnow seemingly poised to be ready for the start of the season, the Dodgers will surely hope that their plans to use a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Ohtani in his return to pitching can help Glasnow stay healthy enough to pitch for them in the postseason this year after he missed last year’s World Series run.

Turning back to the position player side of things, veteran infielder Miguel Rojas joined Freeman in playing through injury during the postseason and underwent sports hernia surgery after the season concluded. As noted by Ardaya, Rojas spoke about his recovery process during today’s fan event and revealed that he suffered from a post-surgery infection that delayed his ability to rehab for a couple of weeks. Fortunately, that now appears to be behind him as Rojas indicated he remains on track to be fully ready for Spring Training when it begins later this month. The addition of Kim in conjunction with Betts’s move back to the infield leaves Rojas without an everyday role headed into 2025, but he managed to carve out a role for himself in 103 games under similar circumstances last year despite a trip to the injured list.

As for players who aren’t expected to be ready for Opening Day, Ardaya notes that right-hander Emmet Sheehan provided an update on his recovery from Tommy John surgery for the first time since he went under the knife last May. The right-hander has resumed throwing off a mound at this point in his rehab and added that he hopes to start pitching in rehab games come May or June. That timeline would put him on the mound for those games just over a year after his surgery, putting him more or less on track for a normal recovery and to be a depth option out of the rotation or bullpen for L.A. in the second half this year.

Dodgers GM: “Door Remains Open” For Reunion With Enrique Hernandez

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When Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes spoke today at the club’s FanFest event, he addressed the ongoing free agency of fan favorite utility man Enrique Hernandez. As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, Gomes noted that “the door remains open” for the club to bring Hernandez back into the fold for 2025.

Gomes’s comments come shortly after reports surfaced of interest in Hernandez on the part of the Yankees. Hernandez, 33, has spent parts of eight seasons in Los Angeles and is a career .240/.307/.416 hitter in a Dodgers uniform. After first playing for the club from 2015 to 2020, Hernandez departed for the Red Sox in free agency prior to the 2021 season but was traded back to L.A. at the 2023 trade deadline. He posted solid numbers the rest of the way in a bench role for the club and then returned for 2024 on a one-year, $4MM deal last winter despite interest from a handful of other clubs, including the Yankees.

His most recent season wasn’t quite on the level of his previous work in L.A. as he hit just .229/.281/.373 with a wRC+ of 83 in 393 trips to the plate. Even his work against southpaws, where Hernandez has long excelled the most, took a step back this past year as he posted just a 90 wRC+ despite a solid career .255/.337/.453 line against opposite-handed pitchers. With that being said, Hernandez was an X-factor for the Dodgers during their postseason run this past year with a .294/.357/.451 slash line in 57 trips to the plate against the Padres, Mets, and Yankees en route to the club’s first full-season World Series championship in nearly 40 years.

That electric performance and Hernandez’s status as a beloved figure both within the organization and among the fanbase has seemingly left the Dodgers interested in a reunion even in spite of Hernandez’s diminished production and a major roster crunch on the positional side of things. As things stand currently, recently-signed infielder Hyeseong Kim and center fielder Andy Pages are the only two position players on the Dodgers’ projected roster who can be optioned to the minors. Assuming that Hernandez would be part of the club’s Opening Day roster, that would likely leave Pages as the odd man out given that L.A. already traded Gavin Lux in part to accommodate the addition of Kim to their lineup on a regular basis.

Pages had a perfectly solid rookie season in 2024 but could find himself a victim of the club’s access of quality position players. He hit .248/.305/.407 in 116 games and 443 plate appearances with the Dodgers last year while splitting time between all three outfield spots but primarily playing center field. As things stand, Pages figures to be deployed primarily as a right-handed complement to Michael Conforto in the outfield or perhaps handle center field on days where Tommy Edman moves into the infield mix. Hernandez doesn’t offer the same offensive upside as Pages, but is a solid hitter against lefties himself and offers more versatility with the ability to play virtually any position on the diamond as needed.

If the Dodgers wanted to carry both Hernandez and Pages on the Opening Day roster without an injury solving the logjam naturally, the most likely candidate to lose his roster spot would likely be Hernandez’s fellow utility veteran Chris Taylor. The 34-year-old is entering the final guaranteed year of his four-year, $60MM deal with the Dodgers but struggled badly in 2024 with a paltry .202/.298/.300 slash line in 87 games that was good for a wRC+ of just 74, 26% below the league average. He struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances last year and missed a month of last year due to a groin strain. He posted stronger numbers down the stretch last year with a 121 wRC+ after returning from injury, but that came in a sample of just 57 plate appearances. Taylor was used only sparingly in the club’s playoff run last year and struggled when he was allowed to hit, slashing just .231/.333/.231 with a 31.3% strikeout rate in just 16 postseason plate appearances.

Dave Roberts Suggests Shohei Ohtani Will Return To Pitching In May

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Shohei Ohtani spoke with reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) at the Dodgers FanFest event today, and provided something of an update on when he might make his return to a big league mound.  Ohtani had a UCL-related surgery in September 2023 that kept him from pitching in 2024, and his recovery hit another snag when he had arthroscopic surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder following the World Series.  Through he described the latter procedure as “complicated,” Ohtani said his rehab has been “pretty smooth,” with everything proceeding “on schedule.”

A clearer timeline will emerge once Ohtani starts throwing bullpen sessions during Spring Training.  When asked if Ohtani could return to pitching in May, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said that fluid projection “sounds about right.”  A May return would mark roughly 21 months in between Major League pitches for Ohtani, whose last game as a pitcher came on August 23, 2023 when he was still a member of the Angels.

There hasn’t been any suggestion that Ohtani’s pitching rehab will interfere with his prep work as a hitter, so Ohtani is expected to take his usual place as the Dodgers’ designated hitter while he completes the final ramp-up to his debut in the L.A. rotation.  Trying to manage both at the same time will naturally present a challenge for Ohtani, yet it is nothing he hasn’t already faced in his unique career as a two-way star.  Ohtani didn’t pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and he pitched only 1 2/3 innings in 2020 due to a flexor strain in his right elbow.

Needless to say, the Dodgers will be as careful as possible in managing Ohtani’s rehab, as the worst-case scenario would be a setback on the pitching side that also requires Ohtani to miss time in the lineup.  While more will be known once Ohtani actually begins his bullpen workouts, holding him back until May seems like a fair hedge for now, as it will give both the pitcher and the team plenty of time to evaluate the final stages of his UCL and shoulder procedures.

It is already expected that Los Angeles will deploy a six-man rotation in 2025, to accommodate not just Ohtani but several other pitchers returning from significant injuries.  A six-man rotation also comes closer to the once-weekly pitching schedule observed by NPB teams, so this could help Yoshinobu Yamamoto and now Roki Sasaki better adjust to pitching in the majors.  The Dodgers have been loading up on both starting and relief pitching to have as much depth as possible, giving the team an embarrassment of riches if everyone is healthy.

The full complement of rotation candidates includes Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin, plus Clayton Kershaw is expected to re-sign with L.A. at some point.  Bobby Miller, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack and Ben Casparius are also on hand as further depth options in the minors.  If this wasn’t enough, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates were both signed to bolster the already-strong bullpen.

If it didn’t seem like Ohtani could do any more following his 50-50 season (or officially, a 54-59 season) and a World Series championship in 2024, returning to his old form as a pitcher would be a suitably amazing encore.  Ohtani has a 3.01 ERA over 481 2/3 career innings as a starter in the big leagues, as well as a 31.2% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate.

Dodgers Designate Ryan Brasier For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they’ve designated Ryan Brasier for assignment. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for the signing of Kirby Yates to a $13MM free agent deal. Los Angeles still has five days to explore trade possibilities before they need to place Brasier on waivers. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so there’ll be official resolution on the DFA within a week.

It’s a moderate surprise to see Brasier cut loose. He’s a solid veteran reliever who signed a two-year free agent deal last winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Dodgers were shopping the righty, though, suggesting he was the odd man out of Dave Roberts’ bullpen. While the DFA confirms that Brasier will not be back in Los Angeles, they have a few more days to try to line up a deal.

Brasier broke out with the Red Sox a few seasons ago. He fell on hard times later in his Boston tenure and was designated for assignment early in 2023. A minor league deal with the Dodgers paid huge dividends, as Brasier fired 38 2/3 innings of 0.70 ERA ball in the second half. He returned to Los Angeles on a two-year, $9MM pact.

The 37-year-old Brasier was never going to replicate his late-season ’23 numbers. He had another decent year when healthy, working to a 3.54 ERA with a league average 22.7% strikeout percentage. Brasier kept his walk rate to a tidy 4.5% clip, in large part because he got opponents to chase 40% of pitches off the plate.

Health was the biggest caveat. Brasier suffered a significant strain of his right calf in late April. He was shelved into the middle of August and limited to 28 innings on the season. He had an excellent second half but was nevertheless relegated to low-leverage appearances during the World Series run. Brasier allowed five runs with seven strikeouts and three walks across nine playoff innings.

The DFA is less a reflection of Brasier of “losing” his job and much more about L.A.’s bullpen depth. They added Tanner Scott and Yates after re-signing Blake Treinen. They join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia as bullpen locks. The Dodgers are going to run a six-man rotation, meaning they can only devote seven roster spots to relievers.

They could go back to an eight-man bullpen once Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation, since Ohtani doesn’t count against their 13-pitcher limit as a two-way player. They’re not going to push Ohtani’s elbow rehab merely to get another bullpen spot, so there’s probably only one available if all their relievers are healthy coming out of camp. Anthony Banda is out of options and seems likely to grab the final relief job.

Los Angeles owes Brasier $4.5MM for the coming season. They’ll surely try to find a taker for at least part of that salary in trade. They’d also save 110% in taxes for any salary they could offload. If they can’t line up a trade, they’ll put Brasier on waivers. Any claiming team would need to take his full salary, which is unlikely. He’d probably clear waivers and be available as a free agent for the league minimum, leaving the Dodgers on the hook for the rest of the money.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the Dodgers had DFA Brasier.

Max Scherzer Hosts Workout For Several Teams

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It’s been a relatively quiet offseason with regard to chatter on future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young winner was limited to nine starts of 3.95 ERA ball for the Rangers in 2024. He missed time early in the year while recovering from offseason back surgery and was also sidelined by a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring. It’s a length list of issues, particularly for a pitcher who turned 40 last summer.

Still, Scherzer has been preparing to pitch in 2025 and recently held a workout for scouts, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo reported recently that the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox and Cubs were among those who were represented at the showcase. (That’s not necessarily an exhaustive list of teams.)

The Blue Jays have been the team most prominently linked to Scherzer thus far in the offseason, and Feinsand indeed suggests that Toronto has been the most serious suitor for Scherzer. Ragazzo adds that the Mets have “some level of interest” in bringing Scherzer back on a one-year deal. Time will tell whether the right-hander’s recent showcase for scouts drums up any new bidders, but Feinsand quotes one showcase attendee who suggested that Scherzer looked good — not up to his prior Cy Young standards but still “good enough to be an effective starter.”

At least in the 43 1/3 innings Scherzer managed amid all those maladies in 2024, that looked to be the case. In addition to his previously mentioned 3.95 ERA, the right-hander fanned 22.6% of opponents (roughly average) with a terrific 5.6% walk rate. His once-95-mph fastball sat at a career-low average of 92.5 mph in 2024, however, and he dealt with home run troubles for a second straight year (1.65 HR/9 in 2023, 1.45 in 2024). The righty’s swinging-strike rate (14.6%) remained excellent, but most of those whiffs came off the plate. Scherzer’s opponents made contact on 83.1% of swings within the strike zone — his highest level since 2011.

For the Jays, Scherzer wouldn’t need to reprise his status as an ace, however. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios have the top three spots in the rotation. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez follow, but Francis has minor league options remaining and Rodriguez could move back into the bullpen. Toronto’s pitching depth, in general, is somewhat shaky with Alek Manoah on the mend from elbow surgery and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann missing most of the 2024 season due to injury. Rotation candidates beyond the top five include prospects Jake Bloss and Adam Macko as well as non-roster invitees Adam Kloffenstein and Eric Lauer.

The Mets have a more crowded staff, but president of baseball operations David Stearns is known for hoarding depth. Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes make up the starting staff right now. Swingmen Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill could get looks, too, as could top prospect Brandon Sproat. Fitting Scherzer into the puzzle is a bit of a challenge, particularly given the 110% luxury task the Mets are facing.

Dodgers & Deferrals: A Misguided Focus

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Zack Scott, former Mets Acting GM and four-time champion with the Red Sox, empowers sports operations and individuals to win through Four Rings Sports Solutions. He specializes in data-driven strategies and leadership development. His Sports Ops Launchpad helps aspiring sports ops pros break into the industry. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.  Zack will be contributing periodically to MLB Trade Rumors. 

The Dodgers aren’t ruining baseball with massive salary deferrals. They may be causing a perception issue for MLB, but focusing on deferrals for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement would be a misguided effort—a political gesture that won’t address the core competitive balance issues.

Deferrals serve two primary purposes: helping teams close deals and giving players a big headline to validate their market value and boost their status. They’re not a circumvention tool around the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) rules. Spending power, not contract structure, drives baseball’s economic landscape. Teams with greater resources have always been able to outspend smaller-market teams. This dynamic is inherent in leagues without hard salary caps.

Over the past five years, the Dodgers have become a lightning rod for fan discontent by deferring over $1B to acquire many star players. Shohei Ohtani’s $680MM deferred salary is an extreme example, but their long-term contracts consistently feature deferrals.

Let’s consider a hypothetical scenario: What if deferrals were prohibited? Would the Dodgers still have offered Ohtani a $700MM contract? It’s highly unlikely. A league where deferrals are banned wouldn’t change the Dodgers’ desire to acquire Ohtani, but it would necessitate a different contract structure. Guaranteed dollar amounts would likely align more with the present value calculations we observe in current MLB contracts.

Ohtani’s contract (97% deferred) calculates to a $460MM present value using MLB’s 4.43% discount rate. This figure makes sense in historical context, as it surpassed Trout’s $426.5MM (no deferrals), which stood as the highest for nearly five years. However, it’s crucial to understand the discount rate’s role in these calculations. MLB uses a conservative rate, which limits the CBT benefits for teams.

This standardized rate doesn’t reflect team owners’ financial realities. Many owners, especially those directly connected to global investment firms, achieve significantly higher returns. Consider Guggenheim’s Mark Walter, the Dodgers’ owner, whose firm has generated approximately 10% average annual returns, or Point72’s Steve Cohen, the Mets’ owner, with around 14% average annual returns. The present value drops significantly if we apply these more realistic discount rates to Ohtani’s deferred contract.

Using Walter’s rate, the present value would be approximately $282MM. Using Cohen’s rate, it would be even lower, around $203MM. This substantial difference reveals that the perceived CBT advantages from deferrals are less significant than they initially seem. Although deferrals offer teams greater financial flexibility in managing cash flow, their present value is inflated by the conservative discount rate used for CBT calculations.

While the CBT benefits from deferrals may be overstated, they carry inherent long-term risks. Revenue declines or ownership changes could jeopardize those large future payments. However, the Dodgers’ deep pockets mitigate these risks. Guggenheim’s returns suggest they’re well-positioned to meet these obligations. Commissioner Manfred cited the early 2000s Diamondbacks as a cautionary tale. Still, Arizona’s spending outpaced revenue, and their ownership was less diversified than the current Dodgers group, making a similar outcome unlikely. LA’s bet on continued financial success is reasonable.

My experience negotiating MLB contracts in large markets has shown that various contract structures can be critical to reaching agreements. We used salary escalators, signing bonuses, player opt-outs, and, yes, those evil deferrals. When I was with the Mets, we signed Francisco Lindor to a $341MM contract, including $50MM in deferrals and a $21MM signing bonus. While the deferrals didn’t drastically alter our CBT payroll, they were instrumental in reaching a “magic number” for Lindor, pushing him $1MM over Fernando Tatis Jr. to secure the headline highest-paid shortstop.

The “magic number” concept is crucial in player negotiations. It represents the minimum financial threshold a player is willing to accept to validate their market value and status. These numbers are rarely explicitly stated, as agents are more likely to present significantly higher buy-it-now prices and counteroffers. Effective negotiation requires understanding the underlying motivations behind this elusive target. Athletes at this level are incredibly competitive, so their reasons for setting their sights on a particular “magic number” differ from the typical fan.

Perhaps they’re motivated to be the highest paid at their position, to push the market forward to benefit the union, or maybe it’s a number that just feels better (e.g., $2MM vs. $1.95MM). Sometimes, the gap between the player’s “magic number” and the team’s offer is too wide to bridge. However, in other cases, creative contract structures, including deferrals, can be the key to finding common ground. If this flexibility didn’t exist, reaching those critical “magic numbers” would become significantly more challenging. This could lead to longer, more drawn-out negotiations—a scenario that already frustrates many baseball fans.

Mookie Betts’ contract with the Dodgers offers another compelling example. He signed a $365MM deal with $115MM deferred. While the headline figure was impressive (second largest contract behind Trout!), the present value was $307MM, placing it below a few additional contracts (Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gerrit Cole). This structure allowed the Dodgers to acquire a star player while satisfying Mookie and his agent’s desire to be seen as a top-two player. In Boston, we had tried to re-sign Betts, but our self-imposed $300MM limit wasn’t enough to meet this desire. A similar deferral structure to the Dodgers’ deal might have changed the outcome.

The Dodgers and other marquee franchises play an essential role in baseball. People are fascinated by greatness and love to root for or against the best, whether it’s Mahomes’ Chiefs, Jordan’s Bulls, Jeter’s Yankees, or Ken Jennings’ Jeopardy. Baseball’s “Goliaths,” as Scott Boras calls them, drive higher interest and TV ratings, ultimately benefiting all MLB teams. While fans of smaller-market teams may express frustration over the financial disparities, eliminating deferrals won’t solve their economic concerns.

The Dodgers are drawing all the attention because they added so many big names over the last five years. This is due to several factors: their superior financial resources, their ability to optimize player performance, their winning culture, and their West Coast location, which is a significant draw for Japanese players. These factors have raised their villain status, and that’s good for baseball. But along with that comes more noise, including misplaced outcries about deferrals.

Dodgers, Alex Vesia Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers and lefty reliever Alex Vesia have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.3MM deal with a club option for the 2026 season, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Vesia had filed at $2.35MM, while the Dodgers countered with a $2.05MM figure. Vesia comes out well ahead of the midpoint between those two figures and above the $1.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He was the Dodgers’ lone pending arbitration case, so they’ve now avoided the need for any arb hearings in 2025.

Vesia’s deal pays him $2.25MM in 2025, with the additional $50K guarantee coming in the form of the buyout on a $3.55MM option for 2026, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. Via a series of performance-based escalators, he can boost the value of that option by $175K, to $3.725MM.

The 28-year-old Vesia (29 in April) has been a key late-inning presence for Los Angeles since coming over from the Marlins alongside righty Kyle Hurt in a Feb. 2021 trade that sent Dylan Floro to Miami. He’s pitched 210 1/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball for L.A. and picked up 47 holds and eight saves along the way. That includes a career-best showing in 2024, when he notched a minuscule 1.76 earned run average, collected five saves and 13 holds, and fanned 33.1% of his opponents (against an ugly 12.5% walk rate, granted).

The 2024-25 offseason marks Vesia’s second trip through the arbitration process. He picks up a hearty 130% raise on last year’s even $1MM salary. By tacking on a club option for the 2026 campaign, the Dodgers have both potentially bought out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and also, at least in a technical sense, adhered to the prominent “file and trial” approach to arbitration by the vast majority of teams in the league in recent years (which is to say, once figures are exchanged/filed, talks on one-year deals are halted).

The presence of the option is notable in that it technically makes Vesia’s contract a multi-year deal, even if the second season isn’t guaranteed. Because there’s an option on it, the agreement can’t be used as a comp in future arbitration negotiations on one-year deals with similar players — either by the Dodgers or the other teams in the league.

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