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Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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Under second-year owner Steve Cohen, the Mets had the spending spree many fans originally envisioned and are now reaping the benefits with one of the game’s most formidable rosters.

Major League Signings

Total 2022 salary added: $83.903MM
Total overall spend: $259.27MM

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

While many teams around the league opted to wait until the new collective bargaining agreement had been hammered out to make their biggest offseason splashes, the Mets had no such reticence. By the time commissioner Rob Manfred locked out the players, the Mets had spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars on the free-agent market.

The early strike is all the more remarkable given that the Mets entered the offseason without a general manager in place. Owner Steve Cohen was in the market for a new baseball operations leader for a second straight winter. As he did following the 2021 season, Cohen set his sights high, showing interest in names like Billy Beane, David Stearns and Theo Epstein. However, a meeting with Epstein didn’t prove fruitful, and the Mets were denied permission to speak to Beane, Stearns and a host of other potential candidates as they cast a wide net.

Eventually, former Angels GM and Yankees AGM Billy Eppler was tabbed as the new head of baseball operations. A managerial search followed, and though the Mets interviewed several frequent candidates — Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and Astros bench coach Joe Espada among them — it was veteran skipper Buck Showalter who was brought in to steer the new Cohen/Eppler-led ship on the field.

Both Eppler and Showalter represented departures from the inexperienced hires at their positions the Mets had made in recent years. Brodie Van Wagenen went from agent to general manager with no front office experience, while quickly ousted GM Jared Porter had never held the top job in a baseball operations hierarchy before his hiring. (Ditto also departed Zack Scott, who went from assistant GM to acting GM following Porter’s firing.) In the dugout, the Mets had previously hired (and near-immediately dismissed) a first-time skipper in Carlos Beltran, and he was replaced internally by another rookie manager, Luis Rojas. With several recent implosions, some of them unforeseeable, the Mets opted for more experience at those two critical leadership positions.

Within a week of joining the organization, Eppler had a trio of signings to announce. In a span of 48 hours, the Mets agreed to terms on a four-year, $78MM deal with Starling Marte and a pair of two-year deals with outfielder Mark Canha ($26.5MM) and infielder Eduardo Escobar ($20MM). The signings of Marte and Canha, in particular, closed the door on the Mets’ relationship with former All-Star right fielder Michael Conforto. New York already had Brandon Nimmo and several other outfield options on the roster, plus a crowded DH mix. Escobar joined a similarly cluttered collection of infield options, with J.D. Davis also vying for at-bats at third base, Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano at second base, and Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso at first base.

It was a frenzied strike that got its own fair share of buzz and ostensibly looked to set the stage for subsequent trades, but the Mets’ pre-lockout fireworks were only just getting started.

A week after agreeing to terms with Marte, Canha and Escobar, the Mets jumped into the bidding on three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. The most commonly held belief seemed to be that the deep-pocketed Dodgers would hang onto Mad Max, whom they acquired alongside Trea Turner at the 2021 trade deadline. Few teams can go toe-to-toe in a bidding war with Dodgers ownership, after all, and Scherzer himself at the ’21 deadline was reportedly unwilling to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to either New York team (despite interest from both).

Scherzer’s reasons for nixing a trade to New York might never be fully known, but a record-shattering average annual value on a three-year deal from the Mets put to bed any hesitation he might have been feeling. The $43.33MM annual rate at which Scherzer signed absolutely trounced the prior record of $36MM and set a new high-water mark at which all future marquee free agents will surely take aim when seeking short-term deals.

We’ve yet to see it this season, of course, but the eventual debut of a Scherzer/Jacob deGrom-led rotation will give the Mets one of the greatest one-two punches of all-time. (That, unfortunately, will be put on hold even further with Scherzer set to miss six-to-eight weeks because of an oblique strain). With five Cy Young Awards and a dozen All-Star nods between them, Scherzer and deGrom are two of this generation’s most dominant performers. Cohen spent considerable resources to make it happen, but adding those two to an in-house group including Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill and David Peterson, among others, gave the Mets a wealth of rotation options even after bidding farewell to Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman.

Of course, the Mets ultimately didn’t prove to be done bolstering the starting staff. With the Athletics widely known to be shopping the majority of their well-compensated veterans, the Mets made the first strike after the transaction freeze, plucking righty Chris Bassitt away in exchange for a pair of minor league right-handers.

J.T. Ginn was considered among the best arms in New York’s system, having been selected in the second round of the 2020 draft. The Mississippi State product turned in a 3.03 ERA in 92 innings across the Mets’ two Class-A affiliates in 2021. Righty Adam Oller, meanwhile, was a former 20th-rounder by the Pirates who’d been out of affiliated ball entirely, only to parlay a terrific indie ball showing into a minor league opportunity with the Mets. He posted excellent numbers in the minor league system last season, vaulting into late-blooming prospect status, and he’s already made his big league debut in Oakland.

It was hardly an inconsequential return for the A’s, and yet the Mets are surely thrilled to have made the deal. Beyond the fact that Bassitt has been flat-out exceptional in Queens — seven starts, 42 1/3 innings, 2.34 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate — the Mets learned in Spring Training that they were in for another protracted absence from deGrom. Having added Bassitt to the mix became all the more important with deGrom sustaining a stress reaction in his right scapula, and Bassitt has been a large reason that deGrom’s absence hasn’t been felt as acutely as most would’ve anticipated.

The rest of the Mets’ post-lockout moves generally focused on the bullpen. New York native Adam Ottavino signed on for a reasonable one-year pact, and Eppler & Co. made a rare crosstown deal with the Yankees that swapped out righty Miguel Castro for lefty Joely Rodriguez. That trade was interesting beyond the fact that it was a nearly unheard of Yankees/Mets deal; Rodriguez had re-signed with the Yanks as a free agent over the winter and, as such, wasn’t eligible to be traded without his consent prior to June 15. As we reported at the time, Rodriguez agreed to the trade after his agent negotiated a $500K bonus to do so.

The Mets also added righty John Curtiss, knowing full well that he won’t pitch this season after last summer’s Tommy John surgery. But he’ll make scarcely more than the league minimum in 2022 with a similarly affordable $775K option for 2023. For a pitcher with a 2.86 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate in 69 1/3 frames from 2020-21, it’s an eminently reasonable roll of the dice. Curtiss can be controlled through 2025 via arbitration as well, further adding to the appeal.

It was something of a surprise that the Mets’ post-lockout dealings generally stopped at this point, however. There was plenty of talk throughout the lockout that the club could be open to adding another big bat of note, with names like Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman and Seiya Suzuki among those connected to the Mets in reports. There was undoubtedly some tactical element from various agencies with some of the many players connected to them — it never hurts to have the big-spending Mets linked to your client — but there was surely an openness from Eppler and his staff to creatively find ways to add to the roster as well. The Mets, for instance, were said to be exploring scenarios that would’ve seen them eat Eric Hosmer’s contract in order to acquire further pitching help and young talent from the Padres — though the deal obviously didn’t come together.

Beyond that scenario, there were plenty of others discussed. Reports throughout the lockout suggested that the Mets, having signed Marte, Canha and Escobar already, could look to trade from a newfound corner outfield/infield logjam. Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil all had their names hit the rumor mill at various points, with Davis in particular tied to a handful of teams looking to add to their DH mix. The Twins, Angels, Cubs and A’s were among the clubs reportedly interested in Davis, who hasn’t gotten his bat going this year amid sparse playing time. Smith, too, has struggled at the plate without a regular role. Given that the Mets were at least contemplating moves regarding the pair of now-struggling sluggers, one can imagine it’s possible their names will again surface in trade talks this summer.

By hanging onto that entire group and also adding several high-priced veterans — led by Scherzer — the Mets entered the season with a staggering, franchise-record payroll of $279MM. Their luxury-tax ledger is even loftier, sitting at $288.775MM in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez (or $287.966MM at Cot’s Contracts). That puts them just inches away from the newly implemented fourth tier of luxury-tax penalization, which sits at $290MM and has been offhandedly referred to as the “Cohen tax.” One of the sticking points for owners around the league during collective bargaining talks was the addition of a fourth tier of luxury penalization, reportedly due largely to a pervasive desire to prevent Cohen from bucking industry trend and spending at over-the-top levels.

Whether their proximity to that threshold will become the norm or is a one-off dalliance due to the fact that it was established after the Mets had already done the bulk of their offseason spending remains to be seen. It’s all but a given, however, that the more conservative payrolls that were the norm under the Wilpon ownership group are a thing of the past. Cohen’s Mets will always be threats to spend at the top of the free-agent market and won’t be afraid to take on salary via trade. That’ll be particularly worth keeping in mind as the trade deadline rolls around this year. The Mets don’t have too many obvious needs — as one would expect from a first-place team in a strong division — but it seems unlikely that finances will serve as the primary roadblock to Eppler acquiring any help the Mets might need a couple months down the road.

Big Hype Prospects: Gorman, Liberatore, Thomas, Lewis, Rodriguez

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The Cardinals are making waves on the big prospect front, and we’re here to cover it. 

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Gorman, 22, 2B/3B, STL (AAA)
147 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .308/.367/.677

Once the move is official, the Cardinals will become the first team to roster two Nolans at once (I assume). Baseball has come a long way since its origins. From 1878 through 1885, the sport featured a player known as The Only Nolan.

Trivia aside, Gorman will be the latest top prospect to make his debut. Power has always been his calling card, though this is the first season he’s getting to it in games at such a blistering rate. It comes at a price. He had a 34 percent strikeout rate, and he didn’t walk often (8.2 percent walk rate). In my experience, prospects with questionable discipline tend to have volatile debuts. Opponents sometimes quickly seize upon the player’s weaknesses, making it necessary for the hitter to immediately adjust. Other times, opponents accidentally wander into the batter’s nitro zone, leading to an explosive debut. The slump comes later. Players with these plate discipline markers always slump at some point. We’ll soon see if Gorman enters the league with a rampage, a whimper, or something in between.

Matthew Liberatore, 22, SP, STL (AAA)
40 IP, 10.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.83 ERA

I’ve been wondering which of Liberatore or Zack Thompson would make their debut first. We now have our answer. Originally acquired in the Randy Arozarena trade, Liberatore was viewed by many at the time as the best player in the trade. Arozarena’s early-career heroics led us to revise our opinion of what looked like a rare misstep for the Rays, but Liberatore is now poised to help complete the analysis.

As a public, we’ve learned a lot about pitching since that trade, and new findings help to put the deal in context. While the southpaw grades out well on a pitch-by-pitch basis – his fastball is mid-90s, his curve has lovely shape, and his slider is a borderline wipeout offering – the repertoire as a whole doesn’t quite mesh. His fastball is built to work low in the zone so it doesn’t tunnel with his curve. It also plays down for other reasons – in short, some hitters are able to identify it out of the hand. There’s still enough here for a solid big-league pitcher, the profile just isn’t as exciting as it once was.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
39 PA, 2 HR, .316/.333/.553

Thomas is off to a sizzling start. As expected, he’s hitting for average and even has a pair of home runs. Beneath the surface are a few modest causes for concern. He’s known for his plate discipline, but his 2.6 percent walk and 20.5 percent strikeout rates are both worse than many hoped. His swing rates on pitches in and out of the zone are roughly league average. As an industry, we expected him to be more discerning. Thomas is a ground ball-oriented hitter who uses all fields. The profile remains that of a leadoff hitter who can go 15/15 while posting a top batting average and on-base percentage.

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (AAA)
(MLB) 40 PA, 2 HR, .308/.325/.564

Lewis had a lovely debut for the Twins. He was neither overmatched nor out of his element. The top prospect showed he belonged by flashing power, a high rate of contact, and adequate plate discipline. His aggressiveness as a hitter often worked against him in the lower minors, but Lewis has worked to improve. He posted a 15.3 percent walk rate in Triple-A. While his 2.5 percent walk rate in the majors implies he was free swinging, his swing rates at pitches in and out of the zone were roughly league average. His two home runs were backed by gaudy exit velocities. He maxed out at 114-mph, on par with Mike Trout (114.4), Julio Rodriguez (114), and Bryce Harper (113.8), among others. 

For now, he returns to Triple-A in deference to Carlos Correa. The move raised some eyebrows (including mine) due to the struggles of Jose Miranda (.094/.143/.189) and Gio Urshela (.229/.293/.330). Having shown his bat belongs, Lewis will presumably spend the next few weeks preparing to return at a new position. In his first game back at Triple-A, he went 3-for-3 with a home run and a stolen base.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
37.1 IP, 13.74 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 2.65 ERA

While we were looking elsewhere, Rodriguez might have completed the final step in his ascension to the Majors. On Tuesday, he faced 23 batters while pitching 5.1 innings. He’d faced 19 batters in his previous four starts. He held the Charlotte Knights scoreless on three hits, three walks, and 11 strikeouts. If there’s a small measure of concern for the right-handed changeup artist, it’s that he’s allowed 4.74 BB/9 over his last four starts. We’re approaching a point in the season where teams might be tempted to push a debut past the nebulous Super Two deadline. That would probably entail at least another full month in the minors.

Five More

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman watch continues unabated. He’s passed the rehab hurdles set for him. Over the last week, he hit .261/.370/.522 with two home runs, three walks, and one strikeout. His debut could come within the next week, possibly even this weekend.

C.J. Abrams (21): After skipping Triple-A by earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, Abrams looked overmatched in 65 big-league plate appearances. Optioned to the minors, he’s hitting .216/.293/.459 with three home runs and three steals in 41 Triple-A plate appearances. The results are modestly encouraging despite the low average and OBP.

Marco Luciano (20): Last season, Luciano’s plate approach deteriorated upon a promotion to High-A. Repeating the level, he’s back to his usual ways, hitting .300/.366/.530 with six home runs in 112 plate appearances. He’s hit especially well over his last 60 plate appearances. He’s trending towards a promotion to Double-A.

Chase Silseth (22): Silseth, who also appeared here last week, had a strong debut. He recorded an 11.1 percent swinging strike rate thanks mostly to his frequently-used splitter. His fastball and slider also looked like plus offerings.

Corbin Carroll (21): Over the last week, Carroll hit .435/.552/1.043 with three home runs, two triples, a double, and two stolen bases. He’s overdue for a promotion to Triple-A. Should that go equally well, we could see him in the Majors later this season.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies missed the playoffs for the tenth straight year in 2021. That hasn’t been for a lack of aggressiveness, however, and they continued to load up for another shot at snapping the drought this past offseason. Philadelphia added two more big bats to a lineup already full of stars, hoping to overcome deficiencies elsewhere on the roster with an elite run-scoring unit.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $64.15MM
Total spending: $204.15MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signees

Notable Losses

The story for the Phillies in 2021 was much the same as it had been in prior seasons. Few teams could match the top-end talent, with Bryce Harper posting an MVP campaign and Zack Wheeler narrowly missing out on the Cy Young. The starting rotation was excellent and the team’s top position players more or less met expectations. Yet the core couldn’t entirely compensate for a weak bottom of the lineup, a below-average defense and a bullpen that stubbornly persisted among the league’s worst. The result: an 82-win season, narrowly the franchise’s best mark in a decade but in line with the average results they posted each year from 2018-20.

Failing to earn a playoff spot with this kind of core is deflating, but a top-heavy roster of this ilk is easier to address. After all, it wasn’t hard for Phils’ brass to identify the flaws. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was forthright about the team’s weaknesses at the start of the offseason. The club wasn’t committed to keeping Didi Gregorius as the primary shortstop after he struggled in the first season of a two-year deal; addressing the bullpen and outfield were priorities.

Dombrowski’s comments on Gregorius seemed to position the Phils as a viable suitor for any of the star free agent shortstops available. He name-checked top prospect Bryson Stott as a viable internal alternative, and the club’s behavior made clear that expressed faith in the 24-year-old was not mere lip service. The Phils were never closely tied to anyone of the Carlos Correa, Javier Báez, Corey Seager ilk (at least publicly), and Stott would eventually make the Opening Day roster as Gregorius’ primary competition.

Philadelphia did strike more aggressively in the other areas Dombrowski cited as targets. After buying out both Odúbel Herrera and Andrew McCutchen, they were left with two outfield vacancies alongside Harper. The Phils were linked to Starling Marte in free agency and a potential Kevin Kiermaier trade but ultimately came up empty in their pursuit of a center fielder. Just before the lockout, though, the Phils made a push for Kyle Schwarber to play left field.

A deal didn’t come together before the work stoppage, but the talks set the stage for renewed discussions a few months later. In March, the Phils and Schwarber agreed to terms on a four-year, $79MM deal. The burly left-handed hitter had struggled during the 2020 season with the Cubs, leading to an eventual non-tender. After signing on with the Nationals, Schwarber turned a corner in May and broke out as the hottest hitter on the planet by June. That continued even after an injured list stint for a hamstring strain and intervening trade to the Red Sox, with the 29-year-old looking like the kind of impact bat many have envisioned since he was selected fourth overall in the 2014 draft.

The Phillies clearly believe that’s what they’re getting, and Schwarber should be a marked upgrade over late-career McCutchen. His early tenure in Philadelphia hasn’t been great, but it’s far too soon to suggest his 2021 production was a fluke. Bringing in a bat-first player like Schwarber raised a few eyebrows, given the Phils’ longstanding defensive issues, but it was a rather straightforward pickup of one of the best players available at a position of clear need.

More surprising was how the Phillies followed up on that signing. The day after they agreed to terms with Schwarber, Philadelphia was reported to be making a strong run at Nick Castellanos. A few hours later, the Phils and Castellanos came to terms on a five-year, $100MM contract. One of 13 nine-figure deals handed out over the winter, the Castellanos signing also cost the Phils a draft choice after he’d rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds.

Castellanos is a similar player as Schwarber. A middle-of-the-lineup masher, he generates huge exit velocities and power production and consistently posts excellent numbers at the dish. Castellanos’ track record is a bit more consistent and he makes a higher rate of contact — Schwarber is more dependent on drawing walks to keep his on-base percentage up — but they’re each bat-first players with bottom-tier defensive metrics in the corner outfield.

With Harper already in tow, few would’ve envisioned the Phillies landing two of the top corner outfielders available. The implementation of the universal designated hitter does afford room in the lineup for all three players. The Phils aren’t leaving manager Joe Girardi much flexibility to rotate anyone else through the DH spot — and Harper’s been a full-time DH of late after suffering a small tear in the UCL of his throwing elbow — but the Phils have thrown defense to the wind in efforts to create an elite run-scoring group.

That’s a decision that came with its share of detractors, but it’s not without logic. Adding at least one corner outfielder opposite Harper was a necessity. Also bolstering center field would’ve been more straightforward, but the alternatives there were limited. Starling Marte was the only regular available in free agency. Players like Kevin Kiermaier, Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins and even Joey Gallo were floated as possible trade candidates, but none of that group wound up changing hands. Faced with that dearth of center field options, the Phils pivoted to bringing in position player talent where opportunities presented themselves.

Would they have been better off instead signing Marte, whose deal was a near-match for Schwarber’s, alongside Castellanos? One could make that case. Yet the club was seemingly more content with the longer-term projection for Schwarber, who is four years younger than Marte with a game much less reliant on athleticism. Time will tell whether they should’ve more aggressively tried to keep the latter from the division-rival Mets, but there’s no denying the Phillies markedly improved the lineup.

That’s also true of the bullpen, where the club devoted essentially all of its remaining resources. The Phils avoided any long-term commitments there but promised a decent chunk of the 2022 payroll to typically-reliable veterans in an effort to raise the floor in the middle innings. Philadelphia landed Corey Knebel for one year and $10MM, a solid price point after the righty bounced back with a 2.45 ERA and a 29.7% strikeout rate over 27 outings for the Dodgers last season. Knebel’s 2019-20 campaigns were mostly wiped away by Tommy John surgery, and he lost a couple months to a lat injury in 2021. There are obvious durability concerns, but Knebel’s been a solidly above-average reliever when healthy since his 2017 breakout with the Brewers.

The Phils’ other bullpen pickups were more “buy low” dice rolls on formerly elite late-inning arms. Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia inked matching $6MM guarantees during Spring Training. Each was among the best relievers in the game a few years ago, but they’ve both taken steps back as they’ve entered their 30s. Hand’s velocity and swing-and-miss rate have fluctuated over the past couple seasons; Familia’s arm strength and whiffs have remained strong, but he’s been prone to bouts of wildness and occasional home run issues.

The pickups of Hand and Familia were generally reminiscent of last winter’s shot on Archie Bradley. The team has continuously shied away from longer-term commitments to relievers, seemingly averse to the volatility that plagues many late-inning arms. Attacking the bullpen with bulk lower-leverage types hasn’t worked for the Phils in years past, but it’s also hard to blame the organization for spreading their resources around. They lost Bradley, Héctor Neris and midseason trade acquisition Ian Kennedy to free agency, leaving multiple bullpen spots to plug.

Among returning relievers with 20-plus innings, only Connor Brogdon posted an ERA south of 4.00 last season. Bailey Falter and the currently-injured Sam Coonrod were the only two arms with respectable strikeout and walk numbers. José Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are the other holdovers, joining the free agent trio of Knebel, Hand and Familia as Girardi’s most trusted arms in high-leverage spots. A trio of smaller offseason acquisitions — trade pickups Nick Nelson and James Norwood, and minor league signee Andrew Bellatti — round out the middle innings.

While the Phillies almost completely revamped last season’s bullpen, they left the starting rotation entirely unaffected. Wheeler, Aaron Nola, 2021 breakout Ranger Suárez, midseason trade pickup Kyle Gibson, and Zach Eflin are all back as the starting five. The early results have been just alright, but that’s one of the strongest on-paper groups in the majors. The Phillies probably could’ve done more to add some depth, given how thin the rotation mix is beyond that top five, but they’re clearly confident in the primary group to stay healthy and assume the bulk of the innings throughout the summer.

Castellanos and Schwarber proved the major additions on the position player side, with the rest of the unit largely status quo. J.T. Realmuto is one of the game’s best catchers. The Phils made small moves from a depth perspective, waiving Andrew Knapp and acquiring Garrett Stubbs from the Astros and Donny Sands from the Yankees. Realmuto will play as much as any backstop around the league so long as he’s healthy.

The infield consists of holdovers Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Alec Bohm and the aforementioned Stott/Gregorius tandem at shortstop. The Phils added former Brave Johan Camargo on a cheap one-year pact as utility depth, essentially replacing Ronald Torreyes in that role. Camargo has earned some early playing time with a respectable start. He’s a good defender at third base, offering Girardi a possible late-game alternative there to the bat-first Bohm, and he can cover the middle infield as needed.

Aside from shortstop, the one position the Phillies identified as a target area but didn’t meaningfully address wound up being center field. After missing on Marte and their trade targets, the club circled back to Herrera on a significantly cheaper deal than the $9MM option decision they’d passed up to open the winter.

The switch-hitting Herrera was fine but not great as the primary center fielder last season, and the options behind him aren’t certain. Mickey Moniak is on the injured list, Matt Vierling has an unspectacular minor league track record, and Simón Muzziotti has barely played above High-A. Roman Quinn was cut loose at the end of last season but brought back after failing to crack the Marlins’ roster out of Spring Training. He has returned to the majors as a defensive specialist and pinch-running option.

The Phillies nevertheless dealt away from their center field group, having soured on former eighth overall pick Adam Haseley. The former University of Virginia star has never hit much in the majors, and he didn’t perform well in Triple-A last season. The Phils dealt him to the White Sox for minor league reliever McKinley Moore, a move that was no doubt easier to swallow since Haseley had been drafted by the previous front office regime.

Time will tell whether the Phillies did enough to finally put forth a better than average on-field product. The early results don’t jump off the page; they’ve started 18-19, albeit with a +18 run differential. They enter play Thursday in second place in the NL East, six games back of the hot-starting Mets.

Anything short of a Wild Card berth would count as a failure. The organization has continued to aggressively add from the outside, and this latest spending spree took them into new territory financially. Signing Castellanos pushed the Phils’ season-opening payroll to around $229MM, shattering last year’s franchise record of approximately $191MM. For the first time in franchise history, owner John Middleton is likely to pay a luxury tax penalty, as the club’s estimated $236MM+ CBT hit is more than $6MM north of the $230MM base threshold. The fee for moderately exceeding the base threshold for the first time is marginal in the context of the team’s overall spending — roughly $1.2MM, pending future acquisitions — but it’s nevertheless a notable symbolic marker for the organization to cross.

That win-now mentality is unlikely to stop, and the Phillies figure to be aggressive around the trade deadline if they’re in contention as expected. Philadelphia’s farm system is generally regarded as one of the league’s worst, but no organization is entirely devoid of minor league talent. The Phils struck to acquire Gibson and Kennedy from the Rangers at last summer’s deadline. Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld and their staff will be equally eager to add this time around — with the bullpen, center field and perhaps back end of the rotation standing out as potential needs.

With more than ten years in the rearview mirror since the last playoff appearance, the Phillies are feeling as much pressure as any team in baseball to show results. Missing the postseason again would raise plenty of questions about the franchise’s outlook — with particular scrutiny likely to mount about Girardi, who’s in the final guaranteed season of a three-year contract. There’s enough talent here to expect to compete, but overarching concerns about the bullpen, defense and roster depth will persist until they start winning consistently.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Kirby, Hall, Stott, Brujan

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This week, we check in on three prospects already in the Majors and two more on their way. 

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (AAA)
26 PA, 1 HR, .200/.385/.350

After quickly trouncing High- and Double-A competition, Rutschman has settled into Triple-A over the last week. While his stats at Norfolk aren’t yet glowing, he is nearing a promotion, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic. First, he has a couple boxes to tick to complete his rehab journey from a triceps injury. The most important step is starting at catcher multiple days in a row. Thus far, he’s caught only three of six games in Triple-A. Encouragingly, he delivered his first home run of the season on Thursday. He’s also demonstrating the quality plate discipline and contact skills associated with his previous rise through the system.

Connolly believes a promotion will come this month and perhaps as soon as next week. While many would undoubtedly like to see him arrive on Monday for the start of a home stand, that might be too soon for Rutschman to complete his rehab goals. Next weekend or the following week make for reasonable expectations.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)
6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 10.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

Last week’s Big Hype Prospects noted the potential for Kirby to fill Matt Brash’s spot in the Seattle rotation. That potential became reality on Sunday. Against the Rays, he faced 21 batters, allowing four hits and recording seven strikeouts. He did a fair amount of nibbling in his debut – only roughly half of his offerings were in the strike zone. Despite this, he was efficient, needing just under four pitches per batter. He also induced 14 whiffs out of 81 pitches thrown. He mostly relied on his fastball and slider while showing the occasional curve and changeup.

As several observers noted, Kirby’s fastball velocity plunged throughout the game. Six innings and 21 batters faced both stand out as season-highs, and it’s fair to wonder if debut jitters had him overamped in the early innings. Kirby’s next test comes Saturday against the Mets. We’ll want to see if he shifts how he uses his four-pitch repertoire, and if he can maintain his velocity from beginning to end.

D.L. Hall, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 12.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9

Hall’s preparation for the season has taken him on a similar path to Rutschman. They probably could have shared transportation from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A. Hall’s stuff is truly electric. The southpaw can sit around 96-mph, and his fastball has natural carry. He complements it with two wipeout breaking balls and an effective changeup. Besides health, command is his primary shortcoming. However, he showed signs of turning a corner last season. Comparisons to Josh Hader abound. Remember, Hader had a chance to stick in the rotation before he proved too valuable as a reliever.

Injuries and poor command have prevented Hall from topping 100 innings in a season. The Orioles front office undoubtedly wants to take it slow while getting him ready for an expanded role in future seasons. He’s faced between 12 and 15 batters in his three starts, a sign he might be used as an opener or bulk reliever this season. That would also be an effective way to get him a full season of outings without a burdensome workload.

Bryson Stott, 24, SS, PHI (MLB)
(AAA) 40 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .333/.375/.611

Stott made the Phillies out of Spring Training then proceeded to flop. He hit just .133/.161/.167 in 31 plate appearances. Upon a demotion to Triple-A, his bat immediately awakened. He delivered multiple hits in five of nine games played. The sole red flag was a 25 percent strikeout rate which, while not egregious by leaguewide standards, is on the high side for him. Still, we’re talking a couple extra strikeouts in a small sample. An injury to Didi Gregorius necessitated Stott’s recall. The Phillies hope Gregorius can return sometime next week. In four games since returning, Stott has one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts in 16 plate appearances.

Vidal Brujan, 24, UT, TB (MLB)
(AAA) 70 PA, 6 SB, .300/.400/.467

Brujan’s offensive template is speed-based. However, despite what many say, he’s not entirely powerless. Think of him as similar to Cardinals utility man Tommy Edman. Both have the capacity to sting the ball even if most of their contact is on the ground. Brujan raised his launch angle in Triple-A Durham last season, launching 12 home runs in 441 plate appearances. He also stole 44 bags. He could age into more power. For now, the focus is on maintaining a low strikeout rate and high BABIP. The Rays have lumped Brujan into their ever-mutating series of platoons. He should receive regular, if unpredictable, playing time.

Five More

Oneil Cruz (23): While his triple-slash of .190/.315/.324 remains an eyesore, Cruz has shown signs of life in his last six games (.304/.467/.565). As Chris Clegg of Fantrax notes, Cruz is capable of Stantonian exit velocities. The Pirates are using Diego Castillo and Rodolfo Castro at shortstop, both of whom are considered second basemen by most scouts.

Riley Greene (21): Greene was on pace to make the Tigers Opening Day roster before breaking his foot. He’s expected to resume baseball activities today. The Tigers could use an upgrade in center field. Greene is a patient slugger who comes with the usual high strikeout rate.

Josh Lowe (24): Lowe was demoted to Triple-A in early May. The results are mixed. His .207/.303/.552 batting line is above-average mostly thanks to three home runs in 33 plate appearances. He’s also too strikeout prone at the moment. His 18 punch outs equate to 54.5 percent of plate appearances.

Chase Silseth (22): Although lacking in “big hype,” Silseth has flown through the Angels system. He’ll start for the big-league club tonight, skipping Triple-A in the process. Overall, he’s tossed just 31.1 innings in the minors. The right-hander had a 1.73 ERA in 26 Double-A innings complimented by 12.81 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, and an 18.5 percent swinging strike rate.

Royce Lewis (23): Our lead story last week, Lewis has held his own through 21 plate appearances. Overall, he has six hits and four strikeouts, good for a .286/.286/.333 line. He does not appear to be overmatched. Carlos Correa returns soon.

10 Potential Trade Deadline Rental Bats Off To Strong Starts

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As always, this year’s trade deadline will prominently feature many players who will be eligible for free agency after the season.  Here’s a look at 10 rental hitters off to strong starts who could be available in trade.  All of the teams included in this post currently feature playoff odds below 35%.

  • Josh Bell, Nationals: 178 wRC+.  Off to a blistering start, Bell has sliced his strikeout rate to less than 10% in the early going.  There’s a strong chance the Nats send him to a contender this summer.  The Twins would make for a nice fit.
  • Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox: 157 wRC+.  There’s little question Bogaerts will opt out of his contract after the season, but the 10-19 Red Sox at least have a fighting shot at the playoffs this year (FanGraphs gives a 21.8% chance).  If the team fades further, it’ll make sense to put Bogaerts on the market.  However, Bogaerts has full no-trade protection, so he controls his fate.  The Angels and Cardinals could make for good matches.
  • Brandon Drury, Reds: 157 wRC+.  Drury showed some pop last year for the Mets as well, and he has a .274/.324/.524 line with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances since 2021.  And Drury does have the Statcast hard-hit data to back up his success this year.  He joined the Reds on a minor league deal in March, and the 29-year-old figures to be spun into some kind of modest trade deadline return.
  • Willson Contreras, Cubs: 148 wRC+.  Contreras figures to be highly sought after at the trade deadline, especially with the average catcher putting up an 81 wRC+.  Unless the Cubs change their mind about extending their soon-to-be-30-year-old longtime backstop, he’s quite likely to be dealt.  The Guardians or Mets could make sense.
  • J.D. Martinez, Red Sox: 148 wRC+.  Of the three Red Sox regulars who are actually hitting this year, two of them are headed toward free agency after the season.  And Rafael Devers isn’t far behind.  Martinez is earning a hefty $19.375MM this year and can block trades to three teams.
  • Ben Gamel, Pirates: 142 wRC+.  Gamel is one of a handful of bright spots on the Pirates, but he’s also earning only $1.8MM this year and is slated for free agency.
  • Andrew Benintendi, Royals: 133 wRC+.  There’s a chance the Royals extend Benintendi, but as of now he’s on track for free agency.  He hasn’t shown much pop this year, but he’s sixth in the AL with a .330 batting average.
  • Jean Segura, Phillies: 128 wRC+.  Like the Red Sox, the Phillies are another potential trade deadline seller that isn’t out of contention yet.  Segura, who is earning $14.25MM this year and has a $17MM option for ’23, does have full no-trade protection.
  • Jesus Aguilar, Marlins: 122 wRC+.  The Marlins’ first baseman hasn’t hit for much power this year, but with the deadened baseballs, standards have changed.  There’s a good chance he’s traded.
  • Tommy Pham, Reds: 118 wRC+.   The Reds have limited trade bait on the position player side, but Drury and Pham figure to be sent packing.

Though this post is focused on trade targets who have hit well through the season’s first month, the rental market will certainly feature others with track records of success, such as Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, and Adam Frazier.

Offseason in Review: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers were aggressive this winter in making calculated veteran additions to augment their rising core. It may not be enough to compete for a playoff spot this season, but it signaled the organization was putting the rebuild in the rearview mirror.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $48MM
Total spending: $238MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Tigers had only one losing season from 2006 to 2014, capping off that highly-successful era with a four-year run atop the AL Central. But when the wheels fell off, they fell all the way off. As the wins dried up, so did their spending. Luxury tax payrolls that had drifted over the $200MM mark near the end of that competitive era began decreasing year-by-year to a low of ~$103MM last season.

For a while there, they’d stopped spending almost entirely, going five years from 2016 to 2021 without signing a free agent to a multi-year deal. That stretch ended last winter with Robbie Grossman’s two-year contractl. As they entered this past winter, the Tigers had no plans to sit out the proceedings. In fact, they came into the winter with their roster needs clearly in mind, and they set about immediately to fill them.

The Tigers broke the seal on the offseason with a trade to bring in a veteran defensive catcher in Barnhart who could help usher their young cavalcade of starters into the next era of Tigers’ baseball. Barnhart doesn’t do much with the bat (82 RC+ over 2,584 career plate appearances), but he’s a respected gloveman. He’s also only under contract for one season, so while the Tigers have expressed interest in working out a long-term deal, they can move along at year’s end if the price doesn’t meet their expectations.

Tigers’ GM Al Avila made clear from the beginning of the offseason that bringing in a veteran starter was going to be one of their priorities. They checked that box by inking Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM deal that allows him to opt-out after the second season. Rodriguez brings veteran savvy and World Series experience to an otherwise youthful rotation. Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and company ought to learn much from seeing the example E-Rod sets at the top of the rotation.

From a more practical standpoint, Rodriguez should provide the bulk and stability that a rotation needs at the top. As they manage the workloads of their younger arms, Rodriguez will be asked to be a run-stopper and innings-eater. It might be that one day soon, Skubal, Manning, or Mize might take over in that role, but for the first couple years of the deal, Rodriguez will set the tone.

Javier Baez will serve a similar role on the offense. Though Baez’s bat will have its ups-and-downs, he fits Detroit’s model because of his defensive upside. Like Barnhart and Rodriguez, Baez is meant to supplement and aid the development of their young core. That means supporting them with his glove. His bat will absolutely help, but there is offensive help on the way in Detroit. Namely, in the form of Riley Greene, who began this year on the injured list, and Spencer Torkelson, the former first overall pick who started this season in Detroit.

Of course, El Mago signed for six years (although, like Rodriguez, he can opt-out after 2023), so his bat isn’t inconsequential. It’s a risk spending so much money on a volatile talent like Baez for his age-29 through age-35 seasons. But even if his career arc eventually takes his production back to the 96 wRC+ bat he was from 2015 to 2017, that’s still an above-average talent if the defense holds. Shortstop has been a black hole for the Tigers in recent seasons, and it was clear they were prepared to spend to address it. The Tigers reportedly offered Carlos Correa ten years and $275MM (presumably before settling on Baez as their long-term shortstop), but Correa was still seeking to handily top $300MM at the time.

The Tigers do have some infielders coming up through the system – Ryan Kreidler, Izaac Pacheco, Manuel Sequera, Javier Osorio – but with the exception of Kreidler, who just broke his hand, most of those prospects are many years away from the Majors. El Mago will excite the fanbase, provide defensive support for the young pitching staff, and by all accounts, he’s a positive clubhouse presence. Baez’s plate discipline can be worrisome, but he checks a lot of the supplemental boxes.

Just as the Tigers more-or-less opened the offseason with their trade for Barnhart, they also ended it with another trade. The day before Opening Day, the Tigers jumped to nab Austin Meadows from the Rays. Meadows is a player with warts, but he’s also an obvious upgrade for the Tigers, especially so long as Greene remains sidelined. Meadows turns 27 this year, he’s only making $4MM, and with two more seasons of arbitration beyond this one, the Tigers aren’t on the hook for a long-term commitment. Landing Meadows required parting with young infielder Isaac Paredes, a promising young minor league hitter but a player who has yet to find big league success.

Meadows is an upgrade for the offense this year, pairing with Robbie Grossman to form a reliable veteran corner outfielder tandem. Grossman is a free agent after this season, so the Meadows acquisition protects them somewhat from a potential Grossman departure. Akil Baddoo, if he continues to produce, can earn his reps his center, and if he doesn’t, he can transition to a fourth outfield role when Greene proves ready.

On the pitching side, E-Rod filled the greatest void on the roster, and he was, by far, the biggest addition on that side of the ball. But given the youth of their staff, and the inevitability of injuries these days, the Tigers dipped their toes into the bargain end of the veteran free agent market as well. They signed former Mariners, Yankees, and Twins right-hander Michael Pineda on March 19th to a one-year deal. Pineda has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he was pretty solid during the three years he spent in Minnesota.

Just a few days prior to inking Pineda, they also brought back Wily Peralta on a one-year, $2.5MM deal that was contingent upon his making the big-league club – which he did. Peralta was a surprising success as a starter for the Tigers last year, posting a 3.07 ERA/4.94 FIP over 93 2/3 innings while making 18 starts. He’s more likely to serve as a bullpen arm this year, but they have him as an option for starter minutes as well.

The bullpen was kept largely intact, but they did add Andrew Chafin on a two-year deal. “The Sheriff” has been an undervalued arm for many years now. With a 3.31 ERA/3.17 FIP over 414 career appearances, he’s been about as reliable as can be expected of any bullpen arm. He’ll slot in with Gregory Soto and Michael Fulmer to take on high-leverage opportunities.

The Tigers weren’t the most active team this past winter, but they set out to fill a couple of holes, they targeted the players they wanted to fill those spots, and they got their targets. The primary growth of their organization will still have to come from the internal development of their core young players, but Baez, Meadows, Barnhart, Pineda, Chafin, and Rodriguez bring a decent jolt of talent and experience to their young core. Miguel Cabrera may have enough veteran experience and clubhouse presence to feed the whole organization, but he’s not the on-field contributor that he used to be. These additions should help in ways that Cabrera, the legend, no longer can.

Is it enough to turn these Tigers into a surprising upstart? Vegas says no, putting them third in the AL Central with 28-1 odds of winning the division. None of ESPN’s staff picked them for the playoffs. Five Thirty Eight pegged their most likely record to land at 71-91.

The Tigers knew they had weaknesses going into the offseason. They surely know they have weaknesses now. But there’s no doubt they have fewer holes on the roster now than they did at the end of last season. For a team looking to emerge from a rebuild, their approach was a reasonable one. They made additions, but they were relatively judicious at the same time. They didn’t blast their window of contention open, but if it’s open a crack, they nudged it open a little further.

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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It was a relatively quiet offseason by Yankees standards….apart from arguably the winter’s biggest trade.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After very little activity in the pre-lockout period, the Yankees burst into action a few days after the transactions freeze was lifted, swinging a big five-player blockbuster with the Twins that checked a number of items off New York’s winter to-do list.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton almost single-handedly carried a surprisingly lackluster Yankees lineup in 2021, so the club decided to add some more pop at third base by bringing in former AL MVP Josh Donaldson.  Gio Urshela had enjoyed some good success at the plate during his time in the Bronx, but since he was one of the several Yankee hitters coming off a down year, Donaldson provides a big upgrade on paper.

Donaldson isn’t without risk, especially given how New York has more than a few right-handed hitting veterans who also have checkered injury histories.  But, the Yankees felt Donaldson was worth it, considering that the third baseman hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down even into his age-36 season.  To underline their belief in Donaldson, the Yankees agreed to cover all of the $50MM owed to him through the 2023 season.

This expenditure was likely made possible because New York reset its luxury tax status in 2021, keeping payroll under the old $210MM threshold.  As a result, the Yankees regained “first-timer” penalty status for any overage in 2022, and indeed the Bombers are already set to blow past the new thresholds.  With the new collective bargaining agreement bringing changes to the Competitive Balance Tax structure, it seems as though New York’s lack of moves pre-lockout was borne of a desire to wait and see exactly what the new CBT rules would entail, before making any big financial commitments.

Some money also went back Minnesota’s way in the form of the 2022 contracts for Urshela and Gary Sanchez, who were both arbitration-eligible.  Sanchez is in his final year of arb control, and after another subpar season for the catcher, the Yankees decided to drastically overhaul their personnel behind the plate.

Between incumbent Kyle Higashioka, former Twin Ben Rortvedt, and another trade pickup in former Ranger Jose Trevino, this sharp move toward a defense-first catching corps turns the page after years of criticism directed towards Sanchez’s glovework.  These shortcomings behind the plate were usually secondary to the big numbers Sanchez posted with his bat, but as his hitting also declined over the last two years, he found himself on the bench during key late-season games.

There is some hope that the 24-year-old Rortvedt can still reach another level as a hitter, though he has yet to make his debut in the pinstripes after suffering an oblique strain in Spring Training.  Rortvedt’s absence likely led to Trevino’s acquisition, and Trevino might be the odd man out once Rortvedt is healthy.

Defense was also the key part of the Yankees’ acquisition of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was targeted by the New York front office for much of the winter.  It seemed as though the chase was over once the Twins landed IKF from the Rangers, except Kiner-Falefa was then flipped to the Yankees only hours after landing in Minnesota.

With Gleyber Torres moved over to second base near the end of last season, it left a big vacancy at the shortstop position.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman summed up the situation in October, stating bluntly that “shortstop is an area of need. We have to address it.”  It seemingly set the stage for a vintage Yankees splurge, and with so many superstar shortstops available in free agency, it seemed as though it was only a question of which of those big names would eventually land in the Bronx.

And indeed, the Yankees made a choice about their shortstop of the future — Anthony Volpe, or maybe Oswald Peraza.  Since Peraza is slated to make his big league debut sometime this season and Volpe likely in 2023, New York ultimately opted to see what they have in the two highly-regarded prospects rather than sign a proven veteran to a pricey multi-year contract.  This isn’t to say that the Yankees didn’t pay some attention to the shortstop market, but more in a cursory manner, in case a shorter-term possibility materialized.

As a result, it was Kiner-Falefa who stepped into the shortstop vacancy, not any of the All-Star names on the open market.  (Ironically, the Yankees agreeing to cover Donaldson’s salary allowed the Twins to free up enough payroll to make a big shortstop add themselves, signing Carlos Correa.)  While it has been only a month into the season and there will still be plenty of pressure on Volpe and Peraza considering who the Yankees passed up in their favor, it looks like Cashman may have made a canny decision.  Kiner-Falefa has thus far performed exactly as expected in solidifying the defense at the shortstop position, and as an added bonus, his bat has also been solid.

Since the Yankees expected the rest of the lineup to generally be better in 2022, “solid” is more than fine for a defense-first player, since glovework was a bigger problem than hitting last season.  The Yankees ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Saved (-41) and 25th in Outs Above Average (-23) in 2021, leaving plenty of room for improvement on the run-prevention front.

With the Mets spending tons of money and grabbing the headlines in the Big Apple, the Yankees’ more modest offseason took some criticism for being too conservative, especially considering all of the club’s weaknesses in 2021.  However, Cashman may have taken the glass half-full approach — if fans and media were concerned about the flaws on a 92-win team, Cashman seems to have focused on a core talented enough to win 92 games despite those flaws.

This isn’t to say that some other splashy moves weren’t considered, as the Yankees made a contract offer to Justin Verlander, though only for one year.  The Bombers were also linked to two of the biggest available first basemen, trade candidate Matt Olson and free agent Freddie Freeman.

In regards to first base, the Yankees again eschewed the big prospect cost of an Olson or the big financial cost of a Freeman signing, and instead brought back a familiar face.  Anthony Rizzo was good but unspectacular after being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline, but New York liked the veteran’s contributions enough to bring him back on a two-year, $32MM deal.  Technically, the contract may end up being only a one-year pact, as Rizzo can opt out after the season.

Rizzo was nothing less than one of baseball’s best hitters in April, providing an early answer to any critics still grumbling over missing out on Freeman or Olson.  Some regression is probably inevitable since the 32-year-old is hitting at a career-best level, but Rizzo has shown he has plenty left in the tank after his Chicago tenure ended with a pair of only decent seasons.

Luke Voit was dealt to the Padres the day after Rizzo re-signed, as Voit was suddenly an expendable piece at first base.  The trade wasn’t exactly a salary dump, as Voit’s $5.45MM salary for 2022 wasn’t exactly prohibitive, and pitching prospect Justin Lange has a live arm (if some notable control problems).  Still, since Voit got off to a cold start with the Padres and is currently on the injured list with a biceps tendon injury, it looks like the Yankees made the right call in moving on.

The Bombers’ trade of Joely Rodriguez to the Mets for Miguel Castro is also looking like an early win for the Yankees, as Castro has pitched well while Rodriguez has struggled.  The Castro swap may have been the Yankees’ most notable pitching move of the winter, as the club let Corey Kluber and Andrew Heaney walk in free agency but didn’t really do anything to replace them.

The Verlander pursuit indicates that the Yankees were open to upgrading the rotation, though only on their terms.  Largely standing pat doesn’t seem to have much hampered the team, as the starting pitching and bullpen have both been very strong over the season’s first month.  Circling back to the defensive improvements, tighter fielding has certainly helped the Yankees’ fleet of arms, but the club has gotten good results from just about every pitcher on the staff.

In fairness, it is very easy to examine New York’s offseason through rose-colored glasses, given how well the team has played to date.  It’s safe to say the Yankees won’t keep up a .700 winning percentage for the entire year, but there is already plenty of indication that this team can contend for a World Series.

And, more moves are probably in store for the trade deadline.  Cashman was aggressive in landing Rizzo and Joey Gallo last summer even when the club seemed more like fringe contenders, and when the Yankees were trying to stay under the CBT limit.  Now, the Bombers are projected for a payroll north of $262MM, putting over the second tier of tax penalties but still under the third tier of $270MM.  Cashman has shown that he can find success with either headline-grabbing moves or more modest acquisitions, so anything could be on the table for more transactions throughout the year.

Could that something even be an extension with Judge?  The two sides didn’t reach agreement on a new deal prior to Opening Day, which was Judge’s preferred deadline for finalizing talks (like most players, Judge didn’t want negotiations to become distraction during the season).  In something of a curious move, Cashman openly discussed the Yankees’ offer, saying that the slugger was offered a seven-year, $213.5MM deal covering the 2023-29 season.

While reports were somewhat mixed on Judge’s demands, there was some indication he was looking for a $36MM average annual value.  It would be quite a commitment for a player who is already in his age-30 season, and yet Judge’s continued superstar numbers make a persuasive argument that he is worth that kind of money.

Since extensions are pretty rare in the Hal Steinbrenner era, it remains to be seen if even Judge is an exception to this more-or-less steadfast team policy.  It could be that the two sides don’t re-engage in contract talks until after the season, making Judge’s status a lingering storyline over the coming months.  The Yankees and Judge himself would probably prefer that the focus remains on the team’s performance, and should this end up being Judge’s last  year in the Bronx, a World Series ring would be a fine way to cap off his stint in the pinstripes.

Big Hype Prospects: Lewis, Miranda, Melendez

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Big Hype Prospects returns in time for a big Twins-themed update. Let’s eschew the ado.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Royce Lewis, 22, SS, MIN (AAA)
107 PA, 3 HR, 8 SB, .310/.430/.563

A former first overall prospect who flirted with the “bust” label for a few moments, Lewis chewed through Triple-A and should have a chance to stick for good if he performs. The proximate need is an injury to Carlos Correa which is expected to require a stint on the injured list. There’s still plenty of opportunity elsewhere in the infield if and when Correa returns. Neither Gio Urshela nor Jose Miranda (more on him in a moment) have staked strong claims to a job.

COVID and an ACL injury wiped out Lewis’ 2020 and 2021 seasons. However, this 2022 rebound was widely anticipated – he had shown considerable growth last spring prior to the knee injury. Lewis has an exciting combination of athleticism not seen in Minnesota since the arrival of Byron Buxton. While his three home runs in 107 plate appearances aren’t indicative of an elite power hitter, it’s worth noting he hit 11 doubles and a triple too. Overall, that’s 15 extra-base hits and 12 singles, a ratio which portends productivity if he stays healthy and continues making contact.

Keep an eye on his walk rate and plate discipline in the Majors. He’s long been an aggressive hitter, yet he managed a 15.9 percent walk rate this season. I don’t have any information on this apparent discipline breakout. Swing decisions are the cutting edge of hitter analytics right now so we’ll want to learn if his walks are a small sample fluke, the result of teams pitching around him, or a new aspect of his game.

Jose Miranda, 23, CI, MIN (MLB)
17 PA, .118/.118/.176

Prospect watchers had their eye on Miranda this spring. That’s because, last season, he hit 30 home runs with a .344 batting average in 591 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A. Scouts don’t love Miranda from a defensive perspective. Though he’s capable of manning second or third base, he’s better-suited to first base or designated hitter. He’s a free swinger with a knack for making contact and above average pop. Personally, I’m getting vague Maikel Franco flashbacks, albeit with less swing-and-miss. He ends fewer than 20 percent of plate appearances with a walk or strikeout, a rarity in today’s game. The FanGraphs prospect crew offer Ty France as a loose comp, though it’s important to remember the current iteration of France has exceeded the expectations of nearly every scout and evaluator.

Miguel Sano is expected to miss a significant amount of time so Miranda should have ample opportunity to build upon both this slow start, and a tepid .256/.295/.442 batting line he posted in 95 Triple-A plate appearances. His internal competition for starts are Urshela and outfielders like Alex Kirilloff (once healthy).

Josh Winder, 25, SP, MIN (MLB)
16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 6.61 K/9, 2.20 BB/9

Winder earned a spot in the Opening Day bullpen after crafting an epic Spring Training. While the actual recorded stats appeared ordinary, evaluators raved about the quality of his stuff. Winder has a four-pitch repertoire of 50-grade offerings – league average in scouting parlance. They play up due to above-average command. A variety of injuries in the rotation have gifted him with an opportunity to start. His debut start came on May 1 when he worked six innings against the Rays. He allowed just two hits and a walk while striking out seven batters. Winder has undeniable swing-and-miss stuff (12.2% SwStr%), but he’s yet to show consistency with inducing strikeouts.

MJ Melendez, 23, C, KC (MLB)
(AAA) 91 PA, 2 HR, 3 SB, .167/.286/.295

Between stomping upper minors pitching for 41 home runs in 531 plate appearances last season and an equally impressive Spring Training, Melendez would have made most Opening Day rosters. Instead, the positionally deep Royals sent him to Triple-A where he scuffled in part due to a .204 BABIP. A need for a backup catcher opened a brief opportunity for him earlier this week. In seven plate appearances, he’s shown how he terrorized minor league pitching last season via loud contact. Of his six batted ball events, four are “hard” with a 95.6-mph average exit velocity. For now, he’s mostly competing with Hunter Dozier for designated hitter reps.

Max Meyer, 23, SP, MIA (AAA)
26.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 11.28 K/9, 2.05 BB/9

Elieser Hernandez has posted a devilish 6.66 ERA in five starts (24.1 IP). Meyer, meanwhile, is steamrolling Triple-A hitters. He’s rumored to be in consideration to take Hernandez’s next turn in the rotation. Meyer isn’t exactly a traditional scout’s dream – he’s small and mostly leans on a two-pitch repertoire. His fastball and slider are elite offerings that play well off each other. His changeup lags behind but is considered usable. His stuff is sufficiently electric to make up for below-average command. He doesn’t issue many free passes which he achieves by missing in the zone and trusting his stuff to carry the day. He could produce ace-like numbers. However, we should expect a short-burst role similar to early-career Lance McCullers.

Five More

Kyle Bradish (25): Bradish has made two starts since we discussed him last week. I noted we should “monitor his ability to generate called and swinging strikes.” Thus far, his 13.9 percent called and 9.3 percent swinging strike rates are slightly below league average. Incidentally, he’s managed 4.50 K/9 in 10 innings. We’ll keep watching.

Matt Brash (24): In early April, Brash sizzled in his debut start during which I wondered if big league hitters might stop bailing him out by swinging at his unhittable breaking ball. It was never in the zone. They proceeded to do just that. Brash was recently demoted to Triple-A where he’ll serve as a reliever. Many expect this to be a permanent role reassignment. He could be an elite stopper.

George Kirby (24): The Mariners have progressed slowly with Kirby’s development due to a history of injury issues. With Brash exiting the rotation, Kirby has an outside chance to double-jump to the Majors. One of the top pitching prospects in the game, he’s produced a 1.82 ERA with 11.68 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 in 24.2 Double-A innings. A gradual ascent through Triple-A is likelier.

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman is basically on a rehab assignment. He’ll be in the Majors soon. Since our last update, he hit .526/.591/.737 in 22 plate appearances. He also posted three walks and only one strikeout.

Roansy Contreras (22): The Pirates are still carefully managing Contreras’ workload. While many of us hoped he was demoted to Triple-A to build his pitch count, he faced 15 batters on April 24 and only 13 batters on April 30. He’s due for another start. Look for more batters faced.

18 Potential Starting Pitcher Trade Targets This Summer

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Less than three months remain until the August 2nd MLB trade deadline, and starting pitching is always a hot commodity.  Here’s a look at 18 starters who might be available in the coming months.

Top of the rotation-ish

  • Frankie Montas, Athletics: Under team control through 2023, Montas continues to be an obvious trade candidate who can make a major impact on a contending team.  He’s picked up right where he left off last year, with a 3.44 ERA and the skills to match.  Having moved Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt after the lockout ended, the A’s are now primed to spark a bidding war for Montas.
  • Luis Castillo, Reds: Castillo has shown the ability to pitch near the top of a rotation, even though he struggled in his first ten starts of 2021.  Like Montas, Castillo is under team control through ’23.  Castillo opened the season on the IL due to a shoulder injury, but he’s penciled in for his debut Monday.  If he remains healthy, Castillo should be able to make around 15 starts prior to the trade deadline, so suitors will have plenty of information.  The Reds may be able to extract a premium prospect for Castillo.
  • Marcus Stroman, Cubs: Stroman may not be thought of as a true ace, but a 3.02 ERA in 33 starts last year is nothing to sniff at.  Though Stroman’s ERA sits at 5.13 through five starts, his skills seem unchanged.  I generally expect the Cubs to keep Stroman, as trading a player this early into a trumpeted three-year deal is a bad look.  Plus, Stroman is on a three-year, $71MM contract with an opt-out after ’23, which may not hold appeal to certain clubs.
  • Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, Padres: Once Snell returns from a groin strain IL stint this month, the Padres will simply have too many starting pitchers if everyone else remains healthy.  Trading Darvish or Snell would alleviate that situation and give them financial flexibility to improve elsewhere.  The Padres may not wait until the trade deadline to address the logjam.  While Darvish and Snell had disappointing seasons in 2021, both remain capable of pitching near the top of a rotation.  With more than $40MM owed and a 12-team no-trade clause, Darvish could be tricky to move.

Middle and back of the rotation

  • Tyler Mahle, Reds: Mahle pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1 K% from 2020-21, but he owns a 7.01 ERA through his first six starts this year.  Mahle, who seems to have cut his slider usage significantly this year, is not missing bats like he has in the past and is averaging only 4.28 innings per start.  Mahle is under team control through 2023, and given his past success will be targeted whether or not he’s able to right the ship with the Reds.
  • Mike Minor, Reds: Minor is battling a shoulder injury and working his way toward a minor league rehab assignment.  If he’s healthy and pitching acceptably, the Reds may flip him at the deadline to save money.
  • Zack Greinke and Brad Keller, Royals: Greinke’s early success includes a strikeout rate of just 6.5%.  He’s on a one-year, $13MM deal and the Royals figure to defer to his preferences regarding a potential trade.  Keller, who is under team control through ’23, also doesn’t miss bats, but does sport a strong groundball rate and ERA in the early going.
  • Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Wade Miley, Cubs: Hendricks’ unique soft-tossing approach has resulted in a 4.90 ERA since 2021, and he has about $27MM remaining on his contract through ’23.  Trading him at this stage would be a disappointing end to a player who has meant so much to the franchise.  On an affordable one-year deal, Smyly is more likely to go, though his skills have been middling since ’21.  Miley has yet to make his Cubs debut due to elbow inflammation, but he’s set to make a minor league rehab start tonight in St. Paul.  While the Cubs in a sense have a starting rotation full of trade candidates, the returns wouldn’t be impressive and the club might elect not to decimate that group without worthy replacements.
  • Martin Perez, Rangers, Jose Quintana, Pirates, Michael Pineda, Tigers: Though early results are good, there’s nothing skills-wise to recommend these guys.  Their teams could could flip them to someone looking for depth, but there’s little urgency.
  • Jordan Lyles, Orioles: The Orioles signed Lyles to eat some innings, so they might as well let him eat some innings this year.  But they could probably be convinced to trade him.
  • Patrick Corbin, Nationals: With $78MM remaining on his contract, Corbin could only be moved as part of a salary dump.
  • Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: With $169MM remaining through 2026, Strasburg has one of the least tradeable contracts in baseball.  He was set to face live hitters yesterday at the Nats’ spring training facility as he recovers from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery underwent last July.  I suppose there’s a scenario where he pitches for a month in the Majors and looks like 2019 Strasburg, and someone goes about the complicated process of taking on some of his contract, but it’s unlikely.

As always, the market will take shape around the middle of July.  The Phillies still have a reasonable shot at the playoffs at present despite a disappointing start, but if they fall further, impending free agents like Zach Eflin and Kyle Gibson could be traded.  The Red Sox are in a similar place, and could put some interesting names on the market like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, and James Paxton.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers teased an “active” offseason just before the free agent period opened. They followed through on that promise in a big way, surprisingly landing two of the market’s five high-end shortstops. It probably isn’t enough to take them from a last-place team to the playoffs, but they hope they’ve landed a couple foundational pieces for 2023 and beyond.

Major League Signings

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers went into the offseason on the heels of their third last-place finish in four years. Texas was at least amidst a retool, if not a full rebuild, and it had shown at the major league level — particularly in the results of the pitching staff. As they moved some established veterans and auditioned younger players, they stayed quiet during the 2020-21 offseason. Their biggest commitment that winter was the two-year, $7.34MM investment (including posting fee) in Japanese starter Kohei Arihara, who was making the jump from NPB.

This time around, though, Texas teased more to come. As the offseason neared, both president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and general manager Chris Young hinted at a more exciting winter in Arlington. Daniels suggested the club wouldn’t rule itself out on anyone available in free agency; Young stated they’d be “very active” in bringing in upgrades. The Rangers entered the offseason as a team to watch, but few would’ve envisioned just how aggressive they’d ultimately be.

In early November, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that Texas could add as much as $100MM in 2022 spending relative to last year’s payroll. That didn’t wind up happening, but it reinforced that the Rangers would play for stars. Whom would that be? The possibilities were boundless. With very few internal options locked in around the diamond and oodles of financial flexibility, the front office could cast a wide net.

The Rangers looked like a strong landing spot for any of the top five free agent shortstops. Dallas-area native Trevor Story was frequently speculated as a potential target, but Texas grabbing any of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien or Javier Báez seemed viable. One could argue that Semien, as the oldest of the group, made the least amount of sense for a Rangers team in transition, but any could’ve been the team’s marquee pickup.

Texas was linked to each of Story, Semien and Seager in the offseason’s first few weeks, and they made the first strike of the shortstop market. The Rangers signed Semien in late November to a seven-year, $175MM deal that topped MLBTR’s projection by a year and $37MM. It was a big bet on a player headed into his age-31 season, but few players have been as productive as Semien over the past three years. He’s an excellent defensive second baseman, has been remarkably durable and typically offers well above-average offense at the top of the lineup (although he’s off to a slow start in 2022).

A top-three finisher in AL MVP voting in two of the last three yeras, Semien alone could’ve been the Rangers’ big addition. He received what wound up being the third-largest guarantee among free agents, and Texas surrendered a high second-round draft pick to bring him in. Yet even after they landed Semien, reports emerged that Texas was also making a push for Seager.

Indeed, the Rangers wooed Seager from L.A. on a massive ten-year, $325MM contract. It was the sixth-largest guarantee in MLB history and checked in 11th all-time in terms of average annual value. While no one knew it at the time, the Seager deal would also wind up being by far the biggest sum handed out over the offseason, as Correa pivoted to a short-term deal late in Spring Training. One could nitpick Seager’s long-term defensive fit and injury history, but there’s little question about his offensive upside. Headed into his age-28 season, he’s a prime-aged star who should be a middle-of-the-order presence for the better part of the 2020’s.

Seager’s a perfectly sensible long-term building block, and the Rangers (who had already forfeited their second-highest pick to sign Semien) paid a comparatively lower draft penalty than most other suitors would have to land him. Yet it still registered as a shock to see any team sign two of the five star free agents in the middle infield, particularly a last-place club.

While Seager and Semien went down as Texas’ most impactful moves, that wasn’t all they did in the days leading up to the lockout. The front office also found time to hammer out a four-year deal with former Rockies starter Jon Gray in between signing their star infielders. A former #3 overall pick with solid or better velocity, swinging-strike and ground-ball numbers, Gray was one of the more intriguing starting pitching options available. It was easy to dream on his promise outside of the league’s most hitter-friendly environment, even if Gray had been a bit up-and-down from a results perspective in Colorado. This inconsistency may have been one of the reasons the Rockies (somewhat bizarrely) passed on issuing Gray a qualifying offer, so he didn’t come attached with any further draft pick compensation. Gray’s $56MM guarantee exactly matched MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection.

In one final pre-lockout pickup, Texas snagged veteran corner outfielder Kole Calhoun on a one-year deal. The guarantee was a fairly modest $5.2MM, and the deal included a club option for 2023. It was a buy-low flier on a player who has typically been productive throughout his career. Calhoun, though, is now 34 and coming off an injury-hampered campaign.

The Rangers forcefully demonstrated their presence on the market during the pre-lockout spending spree. The work stoppage offered the front office a chance to reset and identify their next steps. Seager, Semien, Gray and Calhoun unquestionably made the team much better, but the roster still had room for a further shakeup. Reports during the lockout painted a broad picture of Texas’ plans whenever transactions could resume.

First, it became apparent Texas still had a pair of primary targets, including Dallas native Clayton Kershaw. From the beginning, it seemed as if Kershaw’s choice came down to a return to Los Angeles or signing with his hometown club, and the Rangers made no secret about their hope he’d take the latter route.

Texas also geared up for a run at A’s first baseman Matt Olson. A star player whom Oakland was obviously preparing to move, Olson was no doubt a priority target for many teams. Texas perhaps faced an uphill battle in convincing the Athletics to deal Olson to a division rival, although the Rangers’ incredibly deep farm system at least seemed to put them in the running.

There was also the question of how the club would proceed with previous shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. He’d obviously been pushed out of the middle infield. Third base was a possibility, but top prospect Josh Jung was on the doorstep of the majors. They could always keep him around as a depth piece, but Kiner-Falefa was probably overqualified for such a role.

Once the lockout lifted, all three questions resolved themselves in fairly short order. Texas came up empty on their Kershaw and Olson pursuits. The future Hall of Fame southpaw went back to Los Angeles; Oakland dealt Olson to the Braves. Jung suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery and will cost him most of 2022, seemingly opening a spot for Kiner-Falefa to bounce back to the hot corner. Ultimately, however, the 27-year-old proved a more valuable trade piece after showing he could handle shortstop last season.

In what would go down as the Rangers’ biggest trade of the offseason, Kiner-Falefa and pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez were dealt to the Twins for catcher Mitch Garver. The righty-hitting backstop is controllable through 2023 and has had some injury concerns in recent years, but he’s typically been excellent when healthy. Garver was one of the sport’s best offensive catchers in both 2019 and 2021, marking a clear upgrade for a Texas team whose catchers were in the bottom five at the plate last year. (The Twins, of course, would go on to flip Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees and kick off the chain of events that led to Minnesota’s shocking Correa pickup).

With Jung injured and Kiner-Falefa dealt, third base was wide open. There was some brief speculation about the Rangers circling back to the still-unsigned Story and landing three of the top free agent infielders, but that didn’t come to be. Instead, Texas went more affordable with their final multi-year deal of the offseason, bringing in bat-first utilityman Brad Miller for two years and $10MM.

Miller’s not a great fit anywhere on the diamond, but he posted above-average hitting numbers every year between 2019-21. He’s capable of rotating between all four corner spots and second base (although the latter won’t be necessary so long as Semien’s healthy). Miller’s left-handed bat pairs with righty-swinging depth infielders Andy Ibáñez and Charlie Culberson, the latter of whom made the team after re-signing on a minor league deal. They also signed former TCU infielder and three-time All-Star Matt Carpenter to a non-roster deal, gauging if a swing overhaul can help the veteran bounce back from a few poor seasons.

The Miller deal more or less closed the book on the position player moves for Texas. The Rangers felt comfortable enough with their infield depth to send Yonny Hernández to the D-Backs for a low-level outfield prospect. With Garver on-hand as the new starting catcher, Texas traded backstop Jose Trevino to the Yankees for reliever Albert Abreu.

Garver and Jonah Heim formed the tandem behind the dish. Nathaniel Lowe is back at first base after a nice 2021 season. The Rangers were willing to supplant him for Olson, but that was always more about a run at a marquee player than a desire to move on from Lowe. Semien and Seager are the middle infield duo for the foreseeable future, with the aforementioned trio of Miller, Ibañez and Culberson plugging the hot corner.

Miller is also working into the corner outfield. He, Calhoun and Zach Reks (whom the Rangers picked up for cash after the Dodgers DFA’ed him in November) are left-handed hitting options on the grass and at designated hitter. That was also true of Willie Calhoun, although his future with the organization could be in question now that he’s gone public about his desire to be traded after being optioned to Triple-A. The righty-hitting Nick Solak is picking up left field/DH work against left-handed pitching, while 2021 breakout performer Adolis García remains as the primary center fielder.

There’s probably no team in MLB that did more over the offseason to improve its offensive group. Texas’ lineup still doesn’t have the depth of the game’s best units, but they’ve arguably added four or five above-average bats in a six-month span. If those players stay healthy, it’s not hard to picture the Rangers finishing in the top half of the league offensively.

The pitching staff, on the other hand, still looks to be among the league’s worst. Gray is an exciting addition, but he’s probably miscast as a staff ace. Dane Dunning is a capable back-of-the-rotation starter, but the other three spots were essentially up for grabs coming out of the lockout. To plug one hole, Texas brought back old friend Martín Pérez on a $4MM deal. The southpaw consistently posts an ERA in the 4.40-5.00 range, so while he should offer some affordable bulk innings, he’s not going to overhaul the staff from a results perspective.

Otherwise, Texas is left relying on many of the same pitchers who struggled last season. Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Kolby Allard and (to lesser extents) A.J. Alexy and Glenn Otto all drew some praise as prospects. None has yet had much MLB success in the rotation, although Hearn fared alright in relief last year. The Rangers will continue to give those pitchers some run as they await the arrival of their next group of highly-regarded prospects like Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and Owen White.

They’re also playing a bit of a waiting game in the bullpen, although in that case, it’s in anticipation of a return of a pair of their top arms from Tommy John surgery. Both José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández underwent the procedure in early 2021, setting them up as hopeful midseason returnees this year. Unsurprisingly, Texas had a below-average relief corps last year after losing arguably their two best late-game options. They’re seemingly content to hope that Leclerc and Hernández can reestablish themselves alongside pitchers like Joe Barlow and Brett Martin, as they didn’t make many major investments in the bullpen this offseason.

The one reliever signed to a big league deal was Garrett Richards, who received $5.5MM. The veteran righty has long tantalized with impressive velocity and spin, but he’s struggled with his control and gotten inconsistent results. Bumped out of the Red Sox’s rotation last August, Richards initially looked as if he might blossom in shorter stints, but he finished the year with a rough September.

Beyond Richards, the newcomers in the bullpen were low-cost pickups. Abreu, acquired from New York for Trevino, is out of minor league options and seemed to be on the fringe of the roster in the Bronx. He’s a power arm who has posted massive strikeout totals in the minors, but he has bottom-of-the-scale control. He’s an intriguing dice roll but far from a certainty. Veterans Greg Holland and Matt Moore both made the MLB roster after signing minor league contracts. Holland was released after four games; Moore has only allowed one run in 12 innings thus far, but he’s also issued nine walks and is coming off a poor season with the Phillies.

In all likelihood, the Rangers didn’t turn themselves into a contender. That was never really the goal of the offseason, though. “I don’t think we expect to just come out and be World Series contenders next season,” Young told reporters at the GM Meetings in early November. “That said, we expect to take major steps from where we were this year and continue to build this so that by 2023, we’re in a very good position and competing for the division and have the opportunity to make the playoffs and potentially win a World Series.”

Texas set out to install some foundational pieces for 2023 and beyond. They did just that, adding what they expect to be an elite middle infield, a mid-rotation or better arm, and a new catcher. Whether the Rangers’ overarching goal for the offseason was right can be debated. Waiting another season to push the chips in would’ve been more conventional for a rebuilding club, at the very least. One could even argue they didn’t do enough — that once they’d landed Semien and Seager, they should’ve attacked the pitching staff even more aggressively to push for the playoffs immediately. Yet Rangers brass clearly views 2022 as a stepping stone, the final year before everything clicks and they can realistically expect to compete at the top of the AL West. Those efforts will be anchored by the players brought in during a foundational winters for the franchise.

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