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Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Catchers

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The 2020 season is already winding down, and while more than half the players in baseball are eyeing postseason bids in this year’s expanded format, free agency looms not far beyond. It’s difficult to forecast just how the market will treat free agents in the wake of the sweeping revenue losses throughout the sport. Mookie Betts still got paid like a superstar on his extension, and there’s a general expectation that top-tier talent will still be paid. Many within the sport expect this to be a frigid winter for mid-tier free agents, however, with what is expected to be an aggressive wave of non-tenders only further saturating the market.

Let’s check in on where things stand on a position-by-position basis right now, beginning with this winter’s available catchers. (Players’ age for the 2021 season is listed in parentheses.)

Top of the Class

  • J.T. Realmuto (30): As has long been apparent, Realmuto stands alone atop this year’s crop of catchers. He’s been arguably the best all-around catcher in baseball over the past several seasons, and his stock has been elevated to new heights with a .272/.355/.512 slash and 11 homers in 183 plate appearances. He was hobbled by some hip problems recently but is 4-for-12 since returning this week. Realmuto’s bat has been 32 percent better than that of a league-average hitter, per wRC+. Given that the average catcher is 13 percent worse than a league-average hitter by that same measure, his offense is particularly valuable. Realmuto is also a premier defender and even ranks in the 85th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, per Statcast. It’d be a surprise if he didn’t command a deal worth well north of $100MM.

Other Everyday Options (based on 2020 playing time)

  • James McCann (31): McCann got out to a blistering start in 2019 before his production cratered, but he’s raking again in this year’s shortened slate. Through 107 plate appearances, McCann has batted .274/.336/.495, which brings his White Sox total to .273/.330/.466 with 24 homers in 583 plate appearances. There’s some pretty good fortune on balls in play to consider (.354 BABIP), and he’s still prone to strikeouts, but McCann has emerged as an above-average offensive backstop. His framing numbers are up this year, and he’s maintained a strong caught-stealing rate.
  • Yadier Molina (38): The Cardinals icon opened some eyes earlier this year when he said he planned to continue playing whether in St. Louis or elsewhere — a departure from his previous “Cardinals or bust” mentality — but it’s hard to envision him playing anywhere else. He won’t command another $20MM salary, not with a .272/.310/.375 line through 146 plate appearances, but it sounds as though he plans to continue playing.
  • Austin Romine (32): After years as a backup in the Bronx, Romine got a shot as the primary catching option in Detroit. The Tigers likely hoped that last year’s .281/.310/.439 slash was pointing to better days ahead at the plate, but Romine’s .238/.260/.317 line in 2020 fell back toward his lackluster career levels. A return to a backup role seems likelier than another starting gig.
  • Mike Zunino (30): Zunino has never hit for average and probably strikes out too often to ever do so. However, he also has as much raw power as any catcher in MLB and is considered a premium defender at his position.
  • Jason Castro (34): Castro’s massive strikeout rates are the trade-off for his excellent walk rate and his strong defensive skills. After batting .229/.325/.390 in three seasons with the Twins, he’s hitting .194/.310/.389 in 84 plate appearances between the Halos and Padres. Castro has some pop to go along with the OBP and glove, making his low average more tolerable. He’s been relegated to backup duty since being flipped from Anaheim to San Diego, so you could argue he belongs in the next tier of this breakdown, but he’s been a starter everywhere except his brief run with the Friars.

Backup/Timeshare Candidates

  • Alex Avila (34): Avila has been a “three true outcomes” backup for several years, but while the walks and whiffs are still there, he’s lost the most important outcome in 2020. Avila has homered just once in 60 plate appearances with the Twins.
  • Drew Butera (37): Butera seems to find his way to the Rockies or Royals every year. The veteran backup has never hit much but has carved out an 11-year MLB career on the strength of his reputation as a receiver.
  • Welington Castillo (34): Castillo was looking to rebuild his stock on a minor league deal with the Nats after a dismal two-year White Sox run, but he opted out of the season at the beginning of Summer Camp.
  • Francisco Cervelli (35): In a concerning trend, Cervelli missed much of the 2020 season with yet another concussion. It’s the seventh career IL trip due to concussion symptoms for Cervelli and his sixth since 2017. When healthy, Cervelli can hit, frame and throw well, but he’s been on the IL in each of the past five seasons.
  • Tyler Flowers (35): Long a premium framer who has mashed lefty pitching, the right-handed-hitting Flowers has seen his production against southpaws evaporate over the past two seasons.
  • Bryan Holaday (33): Holaday boasts a career 30.7 percent caught-stealing rate, but his overall track record at the plate is poor. He’s still found his way onto a big league roster each year since 2012, so clubs clearly respect the veteran as a depth/backup option.
  • Erik Kratz (41): Kratz keeps landing with the Yankees — three minor league deals in four years — which makes sense as an Eastern Pennsylvania native who still resides near the club’s Scranton affiliate. He’ll be 41 next year, but Kratz is as respected as they come in clubhouses and could get another minors pact if he wants to keep playing.
  • Sandy Leon (32): Leon’s huge 2016 season with the Red Sox looks like a clear outlier, as he’s hit .194/.261/.307 in four subsequent campaigns. He’s a quality defender with great caught-stealing and framing marks.
  • Jeff Mathis (38): Speaking of great defenders, Mathis has as strong a reputation with the glove as any catcher in MLB. His bat has wilted to near-historic levels over the past couple seasons, but he wants to play in ’21 and is open to a limited role as a backup/mentor with the Rangers.
  • Josh Phegley (33): Phegley has nabbed nearly a third of runners who have tried to run against him in his big league career. He struggles to get on base but does have good pop against lefties.
  • Rene Rivera (37): Another quality defender with a limited offensive track record, Rivera hasn’t topped 100 plate appearances since the 2017 season. His defensive reputation should land him minor league offers this winter if he wants to keep going.
  • Kurt Suzuki (37): Suzuki can still swing it better than your average catcher, slashing .257/.333/.385 in 116 plate appearances. He’s not regarded as a strong defender, and his longstanding issue controlling the running game has persisted in 2020 (5-for-32).
  • Matt Wieters (35): Wieters has spent two seasons as a seldom-used backup to iron man Yadier Molina in St. Louis. He’s batted .209/.268/.398 with 11 dingers in 221 plate appearances for the Cards.

Players with Contractual Options

  • Robinson Chirinos, $6.5MM club option with $1MM buyout: It’s all but a formality that this will be bought out. Chirinos has received just 30 plate appearances since being traded from the Rangers to the Mets and is sitting on a woeful .169/.241/.251 slash in 2020. He’ll turn 37 next June.
  • Roberto Perez, $5.5MM club option with $450K buyout: Perez will be 32 next season and is having a miserable year with the bat, but he’s an all-world defender who ripped 24 home runs in 2019. Perez leads all catchers in Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons — it’s not close — and his glove alone arguably makes him worth this sum even if his 2019 offense was a fluke. That’s especially true considering his deal also carries a 2022 option.
  • Wilson Ramos, $10MM club option with $1.5MM buyout: Ramos’ second season in Queens has been pedestrian, at best (.241/.301/.376). The Buffalo no longer resembles the force at the plate he once was, and he’s always been more of a bat-first option behind the dish.
  • Stephen Vogt: The 35-year-old is actually close to seeing this vesting option kick in — he’d need to appear in each of the team’s final three games — but that seems unlikely. The D-backs have sat Vogt in all but four games this month, and while there’s probably a direct correlation between the drop in playing time and that vesting clause, the team can point to Vogt’s .147/.234/.265 slash as clear justification for sitting him.

Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates

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We’re bringing back our annual series in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt. Of course, it’s very much up in the air just how many significant deals will go down during a pandemic-shortened campaign that not only features just 60 regular-season games, but more teams dreaming of playoff berths than usual. Major League Baseball decided to add three extra playoff teams per league for 2020, and that’s obviously going to impact how clubs handle the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said as much last Friday, telling Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that playoff expansion has led to “fewer” sellers than usual as Aug. 31 approaches.

Another factor that could lead to fewer trades: Players who may be dealt must consider whether they want to change teams and home cities as the coronavirus runs amok. Any player who may be on the move could decide to opt out of the season if he’s uncomfortable uprooting his life.

As a deadline unlike any we’ve seen before nears, let’s dive into our list (statistics current as of Aug. 24)…

1. Taijuan Walker, SP, Mariners: Walker is an affordable impending free agent on a clear non-contender. He’s a pure rental, but plenty of contenders are looking for rotation reinforcements. Walker has had two tough starts and three very good ones, leading to a combined 4.00 ERA with a 25-to-8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. 

2. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates: Similar to Walker in Seattle, Kela is an impending free agent and an established pitcher on MLB’s worst team. There’s no incentive for the Bucs to hang onto him, and while the return for a one-month rental of a reliever won’t be huge, it’s better than letting him walk for nothing. Kela missed the first several weeks of 2020 on the Covid-19 IL, and he was pulled from his last appearance due to forearm tightness. The Pirates called that decision “overly cautious.” So long as he’s healthy, Kela is a lock to be flipped.

3. Dylan Bundy, SP, Angels: The once-elite prospect has looked like the ace many expected him to become, and while it’s only six starts, it’s hard not to be impressed. The Angels could hang onto him for next year, but they’re buried in the standings right now and as a pitcher controllable through 2021, Bundy will have much more appeal than rentals. GM Billy Eppler could likely flip Bundy for more than the meager price he paid to acquire him this winter. Few players have raised their stock more, and the demand for rotation help far outweighs the supply.

4. Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers: Lynn’s ascension to one of the game’s best arms has come out of the blue, but there’s little denying how great he’s been since signing in Texas. He’s half through a three-year, $30MM deal and has thus far pitched to a 3.30 ERA and 3.15 FIP with 10.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.92 HR/9. Lynn rarely throws anything other than a four-seamer or cutter, but the formula works for him; he’s lasted at least five innings in 39 of his 40 Rangers starts and averaged 6 1/3 frames per outing. Signed through next season on a Rangers club that has dropped eight of nine, Lynn is arguably the most coveted arm on the trade market.

5-6. Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland, RPs, Royals: The Royals picked up both formerly elite closers on minor league deals this winter and have been rewarded handsomely — particularly in the case of Rosenthal, who has allowed two runs with a 15-to-5 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 frames. They’re highly affordable and on a team that is five games below .500, they should be highly available, too. The Royals opted not to move Ian Kennedy last year, and he’s a pending free agent as well, but he’s also on a $16.5MM salary in 2020 (prorated to $5.9MM) and pitching poorly.

7. Kevin Gausman, SP, Giants: The Giants signed Gausman as a one-year rental, knowing full well they’d be in position to flip him prior to the trade deadline. He’s delivered a 42-to-6 K/BB ratio with a career-best 12.2 K/9 and a 3.10 FIP so far through 31 innings. The rental market doesn’t feature many prominent names in 2020, but Gausman is among the best performers and likeliest names to be moved.

8. Tony Watson, RP, Giants: A veteran lefty that’ll become a free agent after the 2020 season, Watson has allowed one run through 9 2/3 frames with the Giants. He has closing experience, handles righties nearly as well as lefties and is playing on an affordable one-year deal. There’s little reason for Giants to hold here, and any club in need of ’pen help would harbor some level of interest.

9. Kevin Pillar, OF, Red Sox: Seeking a steady veteran for their outfield back in February, the Red Sox inked Pillar to a one-year, $4.25MM deal after the club traded Mookie Betts. Needless to say, Pillar’s no Betts, but the former Blue Jay and Giant has been a bright spot on a bad Boston team. Pillar, 31, has batted .278/.340/.454 through 106 plate appearances, though his numbers have tumbled recently. Regardless, Pillar’s a well-regarded defender (albeit not the all-world one he used to be) who can play all three outfield positions and a passable enough hitter that he could garner interest from contenders looking to bolster outfield depth.

10. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels: Simmons would be higher on the list had he been healthy and productive all year, but he’s played in just seven games due to an ankle injury. The 30-year-old has been the best defender in MLB dating back to his debut and could very well change hands in the next few days. But he’s also a qualifying offer candidate, and if the offers for him don’t outweigh the value of a compensatory draft pick, the Halos could just hold.

11-12. Tommy La Stella, INF; Jason Castro, C, Angels: A pair of affordable veterans who are set to be free agents this winter, La Stella and Castro both figure to be available. La Stella’s bat has erupted with a .288/.350/.478 showing since he landed in Anaheim in 2019. Castro isn’t hitting for average, but he’s considered a premium defender with huge walk rates and some pop in his bat. That’s been the case with the Halos and will be the case wherever else he lands.

13. Derek Holland, SP/RP, Pirates: The Bucs have used Holland in the rotation (plus one relief outing), and he’s been a passable option outside a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the Tigers. A rival club might not view him as a rotation piece, but lefties are hitting .143/.143/.214 against Holland this year. The three-batter minimum limits a team’s ability to use anyone as a specialist, but Holland has a long enough track record in the Majors that someone could still drop him into the ’pen and hope to match him up against lefties more than righties.

14. Matt Barnes, RP, Red Sox: Barnes has already watched teammates Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree get shipped out, and he’s not likely to be far behind. It’s true that he’s had a pair of rough outings recently that have ballooned his ERA to 5.73, but it’s also true that he averaged better than 15 K/9 last year. Since 2016, Barnes has a 3.92 ERA and 3.38 FIP with 12.3 K/9. He’s controlled through 2021.

15. Buck Farmer, RP, Tigers: Farmer has emerged as a steady relief presence in a shaky Detroit bullpen. He’s dropped his slider usage in favor of his changeup this year, with the result being far fewer strikeouts but considerably more grounders. Farmer is controlled cheaply through 2022 and induces gobs of weak contact.

16-17. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, RPs, Orioles: The O’s start to the season turned some heads, but they’ve dropped seven of 10 and faded from the division picture, as most would expect. Givens, controlled through 2021, has been a rumored trade piece for years and is out to another strong start. Castro, controlled through 2022, has 21 punchouts and a career-high 54.5 percent grounder rate in 13 2/3 innings. Baltimore could shop them individually, but a package deal could hold appeal to a bullpen-needy club.

18. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox: Long a sterling defensive backstop, Vazquez broke out with 23 big flies last season and hit .276/.320/.477 overall. He’s not hitting as well in 2020, but Vazquez is at least an average hitter at his position with a plus glove. He’s guaranteed $6.25MM in 2021 and has a $7MM club option for 2022.

19-20. Mike Clevinger, Zach Plesac, SPs, Indians:  Clevinger and Plesac have shown they’re capable of performing at high levels, and they’re each under control for multiple years. Both pitchers violated the league’s health-and-safety protocols this month, though, drawing some ire within the organization. The Indians optioned both players after that, even though they provide plenty of on-field value, and finally recalled Clevinger on Tuesday. He’s the likelier of the two to move given his mounting arbitration salary and lesser amount of team control. He’s controlled through 2022, while Plesac is controlled through 2025.

21. Matt Magill, RP, Mariners: Magill’s 2020 numbers are skewed after being rocked for five runs in one outing last week, but prior to that he looked like a terrific waiver gem for the M’s. If you’re willing to allow that all relievers are prone to the occasional implosion, Magill’s first 30 appearances with the Mariners produced a 2.67 ERA and 2.94 FIP with 11.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a hefty 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate. Magill bounced back from that brutal appearance with a perfect inning. He’s controlled through 2023 and has a 3.94 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 32 innings with the Mariners.

22. Hanser Alberto, 2B/3B, Orioles: Alberto just hasn’t stopped hitting with the O’s. He’s batting .305/.329/.429 in 671 plate appearances dating back to 2019. Alberto almost never walks (2.9% in Baltimore), but he’s also extremely difficult to strike out (10 percent). His power output is up in 2020 thanks to a deluge of doubles, and he’s a solid glove at either second or third (and playable at short in a pinch). The O’s control him through 2022, but a contending club with infield needs could benefit immediately.

23. Brian Goodwin, OF, Angels: Claimed off release waivers from the Royals at the end of Spring Training 2019, Goodwin has batted .258/.325/.470 in 555 plate appearances with the Halos over his past 162 games. He’s controllable through 2022 and has experience at all three outfield spots, but the Halos have Jo Adell up with Brandon Marsh not far behind. Moving Goodwin could open more time for the kids while returning some decent talent. (They’re not getting out from under the Justin Upton deal anytime soon.)

24. Rick Porcello, SP, Mets: The Mets play nine games in the next six days — 2020 is weird, folks — which will largely determine their deadline approach. Porcello was absolutely clobbered in his first start (seven runs, two innings) and has pitched well since (11 runs, 23 innings, 20-to-3 K/BB ratio). If things go south for the Mets, he’ll vault up this list.

25. Brandon Kintzler, RP, Marlins: The 36-year-old looks like he usually does: low strikeout rate, excellent control, plus ground-ball rate. He has high-leverage experience, gets gobs of grounders with a bowling-ball sinker and is playing on a one-year deal with a Miami club that has admittedly surprised to this point. Maybe the Fish will feel the return doesn’t justify dealing him when they’re on the fringe of the postseason race, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Kintzler move.

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Arizona’s Under-The-Radar Trade Chip

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Back in February, if you’d been told that the D-backs had dropped five straight games and were 8.5 games out of first place with a week until the trade deadline, the natural thought would be whether the team would trade left-hander Robbie Ray. The 28-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and demand for starting pitching is always considerable during deadline season.

Jump ahead to August, however, and Ray has unexpectedly struggled through the worst showing of his career. He’s a contributing factor to the D-backs’ season-long struggles and their recent slide. And with nearly as many walks issued (25) as innings pitched (27), he’s not going to drum up much of a competitive market. Granted, his struggles make it extraordinarily difficult for the Diamondbacks to contemplate a qualifying offer this winter — a QO had previously looked likely — so perhaps they’ll still include some cash to help balance out his $9.43MM salary ($3.4MM prorated) and move him for what they can get.

But even without a productive Ray helping to anchor their pitching staff, the Diamondbacks find themselves in possession of one of the game’s more interesting trade assets in the rotation: right-hander Merrill Kelly.

Kelly is a relatively anonymous righty — one with whom many casual fans may not be familiar at all. The 31-year-old was an eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2010 but never earned a call to the big leagues in Tampa Bay. After several solid seasons in their system failed to earn him a promotion, Kelly jumped to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he starred for the SK Wyverns for four years. That showing prompted the D-backs to invest in a small two-year contract that included a pair of club options back in the 2018-19 offseason.

It was viewed as a fairly low-risk deal, but now, as all 30 owners bemoan revenue losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic and as virtually every psuedo-contender’s front office eyes pitching depth, Kelly should be on every team’s radar. Kelly has not only established himself as a solid big leaguer in 37 starts with the D-backs but has done so while playing on a deal that now looks well below-market.

Let’s first look to Kelly’s production. Since his Major League debut early last year, he’s taken the ball every fifth day and given the Diamondbacks 214 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball. He’s been particularly sharp in five starts this year, working 31 1/3 frames with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. Considering his hitter-friendly home park and the league-wide home run surge, Kelly’s career ERA is about six to seven percent better than the league average per both ERA+ and ERA-.

Kelly isn’t an overpowering pitcher by any means, relying on a four-seamer and a sinker that both average about 92 mph. He’s not a huge ground-ball arm, nor does he generate whiffs at a rate that is indicative of the potential for more punchouts with his current arsenal. He’s improved his walk rate, first-pitch strike rate and overall strike percentage in 2020, though, and the improved location could lend some credence to this year’s uptick in production. He’s still unlikely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but fielding-independent metrics generally agree that Kelly is at the very least a league-average starter.

“League-average” admittedly isn’t an especially sexy adjective to attach to a pitcher, but average innings are useful. And Kelly isn’t being paid like an average starter — he’s being paid like a reclamation project. His $3MM salary in 2020 matches that of righty Michael Wacha, who signed with the Mets after a season ruined by shoulder injuries. Most reclamation projects have substantial incentives packages built into their contracts, allowing them to earn more if they return to form. That’s not the case with Kelly.

Kelly is not only earning a $3MM salary in 2020, however; he’s controlled through 2022 via a pair of club options that would pay him a combined $9.5MM. His contract carries a $4.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the 2021 season that is a veritable lock to be exercised, as well as a $5.25MM option (no buyout) for the 2022 campaign. For comparison’s sake, that $9.5MM salary from 2021-22 is all of $500K more than the $9MM base salary the Giants paid to right-hander Kevin Gausman — another reclamation project who is among the likelier pitchers to change hands in the coming week.

None of this is to say that Kelly’s contract is some kind of colossal misstep on his behalf. The track record of starting pitchers with zero MLB experience coming back to North America and thriving after a strong KBO showing is virtually nonexistent. There was a chance that the signing simply wouldn’t work out for the D-backs, and they’d be out the $5.5MM they’d guaranteed to Kelly. Fortunately for them, that’s not how things have turned out. And now, at a time when most front offices know they won’t be provided the same resources they can typically expect from ownership, the affordable terms of that contract could create enough surplus value to make Kelly a sought-after trade piece.

Of course, that surplus value would benefit the D-backs, too. They’re hardly buried in the NL postseason race — a reality that’s true of virtually every team except the Pirates. Looking past the top two teams in each division, there are eight teams within a game and a half of each other for those final two playoff spots. Barring a continuation of their current losing streak, there’s minimal urgency to sell any pieces; GM Mike Hazen said as recently a last week that he plans to try to add pieces in the bullpen and possibly at designated hitter.

Even if the D-backs aren’t sold on their status as contenders in 2020, they surely plan to aim for competitiveness in 2021. The club signed Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun to five- and three-year deals, respectively, this winter. They traded multiple prospects to acquire the final two years of control over Starling Marte. This isn’t a club that’s going to embark on a lengthy, arduous rebuild — even with recent trades of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke still fresh in everyone’s memory.

That said, those trades and signings also helped to build a deep reservoir of pitching within the organization. Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Corbin Martin, Alex Young, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier and others give the club quite a bit of depth even in the event that Kelly is subtracted from the equation. A trade involving him could return a young arm (or arms) with greater team control remaining. It could also return a big league ready bat who might help to address some of the team’s lackluster production at the dish in 2020.

There’s no guarantee that the D-backs will look to move Kelly. The D-backs will likely wait until the final days or even hours leading up to the deadline to make a major move, as the wide range of outcomes this week necessitates that they gather more information. But a rental-averse team with budgetary constraints — descriptions that apply to the majority of buyers — would have plenty of reasons to make a push for Kelly and the stability he provides.

MLBTR Poll: Sustainable Hitter Breakout

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The trade deadline is approaching. Heck, the postseason races are already taking shape. But it’s still exceedingly early in this oddest of MLB seasons. With the action unfolding on a tightened timeline, it’s more necessary than ever not to ignore the short-sample alerts.

That said, it’s hard to ignore some of the unexpected names near the top of the WAR leaderboard with a quarter of a (partial-) season in the bag. Each of these six guys ranks among the top twenty fWAR accumulators in baseball. Four of ’em have added more value to this point of the season than living legend Mike Trout.

So … which player is likeliest to sustain something approaching their early 2020 star turn? (In alphabetical order.)

JaCoby Jones, OF, Tigers: .333/.391/.786 through 46 plate appearances. The 28-year-old hadn’t done much with his first thousand or so MLB plate appearances, but he’s suddenly knocking the socks off of the ball. Though his K/BB numbers are about as shrug-worthy as before, Jones is suddenly showing a whole lotta slug. He’s in the top ten percent leaguewide in barrel percentage and hard contact rate.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: .373/.440/.567 through 75 plate appearances. An elite draft prospect, Lewis saw his development stunted by injuries. He’s now coming into his own, though it’s hard to look past that glaring .512 batting average on balls in play. There are a lot of strikeouts, too, though Lewis is also walking at a decent clip (10.7%). While Statcast isn’t impressed with how hard he hits the ball, it does credit him with a strong barrel percentage and good wheels.

Dylan Moore, OF, Mariners: .333/.388/.689 through 49 plate appearances. This looks to be a pretty clear instance of a nice dozen-game hot streak that’ll be hard to keep up. Moore is carrying a 30.6% walk rate and 4.1% K rate while benefiting from a hefty .423 BABIP. Then again, Moore is legitimately hammering the ball, ranking among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and exit velocity. Perhaps he’s on to something here.

Austin Slater, OF, Giants: .333/.450/.667 through 40 plate appearances. Slater is running and gunning thus far, logging three homers and four swiped bags while sporting a solid 12.5% walk rate. That 208 wRC+ really pops for a guy that contributes in other areas of the game. Slater has had his chances before and hadn’t ever put it all together. But he was quite good at Triple-A and held his own in the majors in 2019. Could he be turning into a quality big leaguer?

Donovan Solano, INF, Giants: .458/.476/.661 through 63 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily a whole new thing so much as a surprising continuation of a nice 2019 showing. But holy smokes, look at that batting average! It’s riding on a mind-blowing .520 BABIP … which follows a .409 mark from last year. Solano isn’t exactly mashing, but he sure is translating his contact ability into results — and not just because of good fortune. Statcast credits him with a 97th percentile expected batting average.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants: .306/.442/.629 through 77 plate appearances. Just another San Francisco superstar slugger, no big deal. Like Solano, Yaz 2.0 did turn in very good numbers last year. But we were all prepared to see him step back in 2020, right? Instead, there’s something all the more intriguing going on. Yasztrzemski has already drawn 15 walks to go with his 16 strikeouts on the season, providing yet more evidence that he has really figured things out.

So, which player is most likely to carry this forward? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Poll: Big-Budget Long-Term Payrolls

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Looking at long-range payroll commitments, there’s a fairly sizable gap between the top-five spenders and the number six club (the Padres, at a total of $396MM). Here’s that top-five:

Rank Team Total
1 Angels $651.00
2 Yankees $612.00
3 Dodgers $533.36
4 Nationals $488.68
5 Phillies $488.50

That list isn’t remotely surprising. Some other deep-pocketed teams have pared back or simply not yet agreed to blockbuster extensions with existing stars. The handful of teams listed above have each recently agreed to monster contracts with one or more superstars.

Looking at a team’s future outlook involves quite a bit more than its contractual commitments. We’d want to consider controllable young talent, the prospect pool, and a wide variety of business factors in assessing which organization is best-situated for the long haul.

Here, though, we’ll just focus on the deals that are already locked in. First, I’ll re-list each of those five teams’ eexisting commitments. Then, you will vote for the one that you’d most prefer to have were you operating a large-budget franchise. (Click on the links to expand the image.)

The Angels feature two mid-prime superstars, including the greatest player of this generation.

The Yankees have an ace, a former MVP who could still return to his former glory, and a group of quality players.

The Dodgers had only limited future commitments until they struck a bold deal to keep one of the game’s best players.

The Nationals are all-in on high-grade rotation pieces.

The Phillies spent big to pluck high-end talent from division rivals.

Which is the best slate of contract commitments? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Castellanos

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So … it’s early. Then again, we’re also already a sixth of the way through the season (for some teams, anyway). When it comes to assessing next year’s free agent crop, teams won’t have the luxury of watching a full season of repeat testing.

That being said, we’re not going to fall into the trap of hyping up early performances. Even a 60-game test is only so significant. Teams will be weighing past track record along with determinations of present skill.

All of this creates a perfect storm for a player who could end up being the most interesting potential free agent: Nick Castellanos of the Reds. He only donned the uniform for regular season action for the first time a couple of weeks ago, but it’s already time for the still-youthful slugger to ponder the future.

What’s fascinating in this case is the combination of intriguing factors at play. Agent Scott Boras negotiated a pair of opt out opportunities into the Castellanos deal, allowing him to exit after 2020 or 2021. At 28 years of age, the outfielder still has a good bit of prime left to market.

On the other side is the swirling economic uncertainty. We know Mookie Betts still got a huge deal, but he could be a special case and he surely could’ve commanded more in “normal” times. It’s anyone’s guess how the season will play out, how 2021 will shape up, and how MLB owners will spend. Oh, and let’s not forget the other looming threat: labor unrest.

You can be sure that Boras is aware of all of these things. He’s always ready to go to battle. Castellanos is no shrinking violet either.

That’s why it’s so notable that Castellanos is mashing early on, with a league-leading five home runs and ridiculous .912 slugging percentage through ten games. He’s leading baseball (minimum 20 plate appearances) with a 261 wRC+ and has left Statcast agog at the contact quality. Lest we forget, Castellanos also turned in a monster second half in 2019. It doesn’t take a Boras-sized imagination to envision the narrative potential. If Castellanos ends up with huge numbers in a truncated 2020, Boras will be primed to argue that his client has been among the very best hitters in baseball over his past 162 games.

This could yet play out in so many different ways. Castellanos could fizzle, or just step back into his typically very productive levels of output. But you can see the potential for a unique bonanza even in spite of the broader uncertainty. The Reds might feel compelled to do what it takes to keep him around if he helps lead a magical season. The market will not feature Betts since he’s locked in with the Dodgers. George Springer remains, but hasn’t been knocking the socks off the ball early. It is fair to note that Marcell Ozuna has also been hot, right along with Castellanos, but there’s room for multiple corner outfielders to earn.

The biggest remaining wild card? It may be in the collective bargaining. Beyond the potential for a breakdown in negotiations, the next agreement is sure to come with major modifications of incentives that will have to be parsed closely by Boras and other agents.

But that’s not all. The designated hitter role could be absolutely critical to Castellanos’s outlook in a hypothetical return trip to free agency. That’s now in the game, but only for the unique 2020 season. Odds are it’ll be negotiated into the next CBA as a permanent fixture. If that happens, it’d be quite the boon for market interest in Castellanos. Teams would surely feel much more comfortable investing knowing that they could not only limit his exposure to the outfield grass in the early stages of a deal — while improved, Castellanos is still generally lightly regarded with the glove — but shift him into primary DH duties whenever appropriate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Future Salary Obligations Of All 30 Teams

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Recently, we ran through the full slate of future financial commitments teams have made to MLB players. As I explained throughout that series of posts, there are several different ways to look at salaries. Since the purpose of this exercise is to see where teams stand as we enter a period of massive uncertainty in the player market, we utilized actual cash still due beyond the 2020 campaign. That includes signing bonuses, deferred money, and money owed to since-traded players.

Every individual team’s breakout can be found at this link. Little has changed since, with one notable exception: the sizable Mookie Betts deal now resides on the Dodgers’ balance sheet. It’s reflected in the charts below. Now, we can put it all together to see how every team stacks up around the game. There’s over $7B in total future commitments tallied here. We’ll break it out in several ways (all charts in millions of dollars).

This chart shows total future MLB guaranteed contract commitments, in the aggregate.

Future MLB Contracts
2021 $4,146.86
2022 $3,459.90
2023 $3,069.35
2024 $2,730.37
2025 $2,464.12
2026+ $1,378.47
Total $7,134.08

And here we have each team’s total future commitments. These numbers would look different if we applied a discount rate, of course. Some teams with longer-fuse commitments (the Brewers and Dodgers, for example) would come out looking lighter. But there’s no single correct discount rate to apply, particularly in times as uncertain as these. So we’ll stick with a simple tally.

Rank Team Total
1 Angels $651.00
2 Yankees $612.00
3 Dodgers $533.36
4 Nationals $488.68
5 Phillies $488.50
6 Padres $396.00
7 Red Sox $355.85
8 Rockies $337.50
9 White Sox $317.75
10 Brewers $299.30
11 Reds $290.88
12 Astros $254.79
13 Cardinals $230.75
14 Cubs $228.50
15 Braves $204.53
16 Mets $201.00
17 Diamondbacks $166.43
18 Twins $154.02
19 Giants $129.15
20 Blue Jays $122.07
21 Mariners $115.45
22 Orioles $106.00
23 Tigers $102.00
24 Rangers $101.50
25 Rays $101.17
26 Indians $40.65
27 Royals $38.75
28 Athletics $37.00
29 Pirates $15.25
30 Marlins $14.25

The most interesting way to look at the numbers is to examine all the teams’ commitments in the same chart, by year. But that’s also tough to present in a legible manner. You’ll have to click on these to see all the details.

First, the top 15 teams by total commitments (link to expand):

And now the bottom 15 teams (link to expand):

Predict The NL West Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, so it’s time to wrap things up with the National League West.

The Dodgers have owned this division for some time now and are perhaps more laden with star-level talent than ever with Mookie Betts on board. Then again, they may be more vulnerable than ever in a short-season format. There’s a nice assembly of talent on the Diamondbacks roster, which includes an elite young player in Ketel Marte and a sturdy slate of veterans now highlighted by intra-division transferee Madison Bumgarner. Then again, you could argue that the Padres have the greatest capacity to surprise with their own budding legend in Fernando Tatis Jr., still-youthful star Manny Machado, and a potential-laden rotation. The Rockies have an excellent core unit in their own right and perhaps have more upside than is generally recognized. And while the Giants don’t really appear primed to compete, they managed to do so last year and still have a lot of players with lofty established performance ceilings at the game’s highest level — even if it has been a few years.

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Manny & Hoz Account For Bulk Of Padres’ Long-Term Contract Commitments

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2020 salary terms may finally be sorted out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We have now run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. The final team is the Padres:

*Manny Machado may opt out after 2023

*Eric Hosmer may opt out after 2022

*Includes buyouts on club options over Wil Myers, Craig Stammen, and Pierce Johnson

*Includes estimated distribution of signing bonus in Drew Pomeranz contract

(click to expand/view detail list)

MadBum And The Rest Of The D-Backs’ Future Payroll Promises

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2020 salary terms may finally be sorted out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Diamondbacks:

*Reflects deferred salary in Madison Bumgarner contract

*Includes buyouts on club options over Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, Merrill Kelly, Stephen Vogt, Hector Rondon, and Junior Guerra

*Includes remaining signing bonus to be paid to Nick Ahmed

*Includes remaining salary obligation to Zack Greinke

*Does not include buyout of Mike Leake mutual option, which is owed by Mariners

(click to expand/view detail list)

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