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Which Teams Are The Best Fits For J.T. Realmuto?

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There’s a clear top pair of free agent position players available this winter: J.T. Realmuto and George Springer. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected five-year, $125MM terms for each, with only starter Trevor Bauer pegged for a higher guarantee. The Blue Jays and Mets are reportedly the strongest possibilities to land Springer, but Realmuto’s market has been less defined to this point. Which teams are in the best position to make a run at the catcher?

A nine-figure deal for Realmuto would be out of character for lower-payroll clubs like the Indians, Marlins, Brewers, Athletics, Pirates and Rays. We can fairly safely rule them out. The rebuilding Orioles aren’t going to make a win-now splash, and the Rangers are selling off pieces this winter.

There are a few more clubs that are generally expected or have already signaled a desire to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds could stand to upgrade at catcher, but discussions about their offseason have been about subtracting expensive talent, not adding it. The same is true of the division-rival Cubs. There haven’t been many offseason rumblings about the Diamondbacks or Rockies. Both could make sense for Realmuto in theory but it would register as a real surprise if either put forth that kind of offer. The Cardinals are engaged in a contract stalemate with franchise icon Yadier Molina, who would come significantly cheaper. They’re not expected to pivot to Realmuto if talks with Molina fall through.

A handful of others have settled catching situations already. The Mets made sense at the start of the offseason but signed James McCann instead. The Royals and Giants aren’t going to sign Realmuto and displace their respective faces of the franchise. Yasmani Grandal is perhaps the only other catcher in the sport close to Realmuto’s level, so the White Sox are all set. Turning to the remaining thirteen teams:

  • Angels: The Angels have very little certainty behind the plate in Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom. There’s obvious room for an upgrade there, although the Angels are already projected by Roster Resource for a 2021 payroll just $15MM shy of last year’s figure. They still need to upgrade the pitching staff, so it’s possible they roll with a lower-cost group at catcher.
  • Astros: The Astros have bigger needs to address in the outfield and bullpen. They were ruled out as potential Realmuto suitors early in the offseason and are instead in advanced discussions with Jason Castro.
  • Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have seemingly been linked to every big ticket free agent and trade possibility (Realmuto included) this winter. They’re clearly looking to add high-end talent to help the team take a leap into permanent contention, but that might take the form of a Springer signing instead. Young catchers Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have promise but might not have enough of a track record for a win-now team. They could be moved if Toronto added Realmuto.
  • Braves: This seems highly unlikely. Travis d’Arnaud was excellent in 2020 and GM Alex Anthopolous has shied away from long-term deals since taking over in Atlanta.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers have the flexibility to get into the mix for any elite player. But Will Smith looks like one of the game’s best young catchers. Theoretically, L.A. could sign Realmuto and trade Smith to upgrade other areas of the roster, but that’d be a real stretch.
  • Mariners: The Mariners could be an interesting dark horse to make a splash this offseason. There’s room on the books, particularly long-term, and the Seattle front office has spoken of a desire to compete in 2021 after a few seasons of rebuilding. Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens are a decent in-house tandem, so a Realmuto signing is a longshot. But the Mariners are in position to pounce on players they consider special talents and Realmuto certainly qualifies.
  • Nationals: The Nationals have been in contact with Realmuto’s camp this winter. He’d be a massive upgrade over the team’s current pairing of Yan Gomes and Tres Barrera. It’s uncertain at best, however, that ownership will give GM Mike Rizzo the financial leash to again dish out a market-setting contract for a top free agent.
  • Padres: San Diego acquired Austin Nola at last year’s deadline and seems more likely to look for starting pitching with Mike Clevinger out for 2021 due to a Tommy John surgery.
  • Phillies: Realmuto’s former team doesn’t have an obvious replacement if he departs. They tagged him with a qualifying offer and have reportedly made a contract proposal.
  • Red Sox: Boston is generally expected to prioritize pitching this winter. Christian Vázquez is one of the sport’s better catchers, so this would be a surprise. The Red Sox have the spending capacity to get into the Realmuto mix, but there’s no indication they have any intention of doing so.
  • Tigers: Detroit has no in-house certainty at catcher and the long-term books are pretty open. The Tigers aren’t immediate contenders, making this a weird fit, but the front office could at least explore adding one of the game’s best catchers to work with the prized young pitchers leading the rebuild.
  • Twins: As with the Dodgers and Red Sox, Minnesota could theoretically sign Realmuto and trade their quality in-house options (Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers, in this case) for help elsewhere on the roster. But again, it doesn’t seem especially likely.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have been focused on re-signing DJ LeMahieu to this point. If LeMahieu winds up signing elsewhere, a Realmuto pursuit would be plausible. The Yankees tendered a contract to Gary Sánchez but it’s anyone’s guess what kind of production they can expect after his dismal 2020 season.

The Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Phillies and Yankees seem like the strongest candidates to sign Realmuto, although there are a few long-shot scenarios that could land him in other cities. We’ll turn things over the readership to predict his ultimate destination.

 

(poll link for app users)

 

Transaction Retrospection: Teoscar Hernandez Trade

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Few players raised their stock more this past season than Teoscar Hernández. A competent but unspectacular hitter from 2018-19, Hernández had what looked like a breakout in 2020. Over 207 plate appearances, the Blue Jay outfielder hit .289/.340/.579 with 16 home runs. Along the way, he ranked in the 94th percentile or better in such Statcast metrics as average exit velocity, hard contact, expected weighted on-base average and barrel rate.

Hernández isn’t a flawless player. He’s a below-average defender. He has long had issues making contact, with a career 31.6% strikeout rate only marginally higher than last year’s 30.4%. Moving forward, the 28-year-old looks more like a solid regular than a star in the making. Regardless, Hernández is a valuable and important part of a Toronto roster coming off a berth in the expanded playoffs and looking on the verge of perennial postseason contention.

With that in mind, it’s worth looking back at the deal that landed Hernández with the Jays in the first place. Originally signed as an international amateur by the Astros, Hernández was flipped (alongside veteran outfielder Nori Aoki) to Toronto in advance of the 2017 trade deadline for left-hander Francisco Liriano. To that point, the veteran southpaw had posted just a 5.88 ERA as a starter for the Blue Jays. He had stifled opposing left-handed hitters, though, holding them to a .230/.254/.361 slash line.

The Houston front office thought a bullpen transition, where Liriano could be heavily leveraged against same-handed batters, could make him an asset. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick all on hand (and Kyle Tucker rapidly climbing the minor-league ladder), the Astros felt they could part with an MLB-ready outfield prospect to acquire a relief weapon. Unfortunately, Liriano continued to scuffle down the stretch, pitching to a 4.40 ERA with an 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 relief innings as an Astro.

Despite mediocre production from Liriano, the Astros went on to win the World Series. However one feels about the legitimacy of that title after subsequent revelations of Houston’s sign-stealing operation, the team probably wouldn’t undo any specific transaction related to the roster in retrospect. But from a pure value perspective, there’s no question Toronto came out ahead in the swap. Aoki barely played for the team, but Hernández looks to have emerged as a capable everyday performer as the Jays’ new contention window opens. He remains under club control through 2023.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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Our new Free Agent Prediction Contest leaderboard is now available!  Over 4,000 MLBTR readers participated in our November prediction contest.  At this point eight of the top 50 free agents from our contest have signed.  Impressively, one person has correctly predicted the signing teams for five of them.  I’ll be updating this leaderboard as additional signings occur throughout the offseason.

The Rangers’ Joey Gallo Decision

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The Rangers are one of the league’s most obvious sellers this offseason. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels has been open about the organization’s intent to cut payroll and rework the roster in hopes of contending in 2022. They’ve put that into action already, trading Lance Lynn and Rafael Montero for longer-term assets.

Lynn was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of next season. Montero is controllable for an additional year, but as a 30-year-old reliever on a team not expecting to immediately contend, he was a sensible player to move. A tougher question for Texas is how to proceed with Joey Gallo.

The 27-year-old Gallo is under control for the next two seasons. He’s projected for a salary in the $5-7MM range this winter and will be eligible for arbitration once more after that. If the Rangers truly believe they can field a contender in 2022, they could elect to proceed year-by-year through arbitration.

There’s a case to be made, though, Texas should approach the Gallo situation more proactively. That could mean him following Lynn and Montero out the door. Texas has made Gallo available to other teams, although it may not be the best time to try to work out a deal. After all, he struggled to a .181/.301/.378 line in 226 plate appearances this past season. An unsustainably low .240 BABIP no doubt played a role in that, but his struggles can’t all be chalked up to bad luck.

Gallo’s already high average launch angle increased by more than four degrees between 2019 and 2020. For many players, that’d be a positive development. Gallo, though, already had an extremely uphill swing path. Hitting the ball higher in the air last season didn’t do him any favors. Gallo’s batting average on airborne contact (fly balls and line drives) dropped from .556 in 2019 to .350 last season. His slugging output had an even more precipitous fall. Making matters worse, Gallo’s average exit velocity fell more than three miles per hour from where it had been in 2018-19.

2020 struggles notwithstanding, the Rangers presumably anticipate Gallo to rebound. In August, Texas manager Chris Woodward called the slugger “by far the best player on the field” in every game he plays. There was a degree of hyperbole in that statement, to be sure, but Woodward’s affinity for Gallo has plenty of merit. Between 2017-19, Gallo hit .217/.336/.533 (120 wRC+) with 103 home runs over 1406 plate appearances. That’s solidly above-average offensive production. And Gallo has consistently rated as a quality outfielder (especially in the corners) and baserunner. Even with one of the league’s highest strikeout rates, Gallo has shown flashes of stardom.

Daniels and newly-minted GM Chris Young have a tough decision with their franchise player coming off a career-worst year. It’s not an ideal time to look for a trade, although there’ll surely be teams that see his off year as an anomaly. Gallo’s young enough that Texas could decide to explore an extension, even with the team taking a step back in 2021. Finding a price point agreeable to both the club and the Boras Corporation client on the heels of a down season might be difficult, though.

So, what course of action should the Texas front office pursue this winter with the 2019 All-Star?

(poll link for app users)

 

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets are off to a fast start under new owner Steve Cohen, but there’s more work to be done this offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

After years under the yoke of the much-maligned Wilpons, Mets fans were understandably thrilled when the duo sold the franchise to Cohen – who became the wealthiest owner in the majors as soon as he took over the club. Cohen continued to excite the fans at his introductory press conference, saying: “I’m not in this to be mediocre. I want something great.”

There was a lot of mediocrity during the Wilpon regime, evidenced in part by the Mets’ four-year playoff drought. The two most recent unsuccessful seasons came under general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, whom the team parted with once Cohen took the reins. Cohen brought back Sandy Alderson, Van Wagenen’s predecessor, as team president. Alderson subsequently hired former Diamondbacks executive Jared Porter as the GM.

Even before Porter entered the fray, the Mets got to work in upgrading their roster. They quickly made a significant free-agent addition in former Twins right-hander Trevor May – one of the most coveted relievers on the market – on a two-year, $15.5MM contract. He’ll join Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman as stone-cold locks for next year’s bullpen. While most of the unit is in place, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club further bolster it with at least one more high-profile pickup. The Mets have interest in the No. 1 free-agent reliever available, former Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, though he’s just one possibility. Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee represent other notable options in free agency. On paper, Hand or McGee would make sense for a Mets bullpen devoid of left-handers.

May and the rest of the Mets’ relievers will be throwing to newly acquired catcher James McCann – the first big-money position player signing of the Cohen era. McCann struggled earlier in his career with the Tigers, but the proverbial light bulb seemed to come on during the previous two years as a member of the White Sox. Thanks to his vast improvement in Chicago, McCann scored a four-year, $40.6MM guarantee. Maybe he wasn’t the catcher Mets fans were hoping for (J.T. Realmuto is the best backstop in the game and the top free agent at the position), but McCann makes for a nice consolation prize.

It’s fair to say the Mets aren’t going to stop upgrading their offense with McCann. In fact, it’s quite possible they’ll make a far bigger splash in an effort to better their group of position players. There has been no shortage of speculation connecting the team to free-agent outfielder and Connecticut native George Springer, who MLBTR predicts will land a five-year, $125MM contract this winter. The Mets already have a crowded outfield picture with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith, so it’s unclear what a Springer signing would mean for any of them. Regardless, Springer would presumably take over as the Mets’ starting center fielder – a role Nimmo held in 2020.

The infield has also been a source of rumors centering on the Mets, particularly in the wake of Robinson Cano’s season-long suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. That wiped Cano’s massive salary off the books, but it also took away a player who slashed an excellent .316/.352/.544 with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances last season. That’s going to be a tough void to fill, though the Mets do have a capable in-house replacement in Jeff McNeil. Of course, that’s assuming the Mets don’t keep McNeil in a super-utility role or even use him in a trade. If he’s not their second baseman, they could steal free agent DJ LeMahieu from the Yankees. Other than LeMahieu, there don’t appear to be any second base upgrades over McNeil in free agency or on the trade front.

There is a bit less certainty on the left side of New York’s infield, but that’s not to say it’s in bad shape. Third baseman J.D. Davis continued to hit in 2020 (albeit not as well as he did the prior year), while Andres Gimenez stepped up as a rookie and outperformed Amed Rosario at short. The Mets could simply stick with Davis and Gimenez, but it’s worth noting both positions feature prominent free agents and trade possibilities. LeMahieu and former Met Justin Turner are available as potential third base choices, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned at short.

Trade speculation has pointed the Mets toward Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’s due a whopping $199MM over the next years. If acquiring him isn’t in the cards, the Mets could make a splash at short by landing the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Both players are under control for just one more season, but considering Cohen is flush with cash, the Mets could conceivably extend either player within the next year. Alderson did indicate earlier in the offseason that he’d prefer to keep his young talent in place, which points more to the free-agent route than a trade. However, he suggested earlier this week that the Mets will be involved in the trade market for high-priced players on long-term contracts (Arenado fits the bill) and players on expiring deals (Lindor and Story check that box).

A year ago at this time, it looked as if the Mets’ rotation would be a major strength in 2020. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were supposed to be among the premier trios in baseball, but that plan went up in smoke before the season even began. Ultimately, deGrom was the only member of the group who threw a single pitch in 2020. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and Stroman opted out because of COVID-19. The Mets aren’t going to get Syndergaard back until sometime next summer, but Stroman will return after accepting their $18.9MM qualifying offer.

DeGrom, Stroman and David Peterson give the Mets three sure bets for their starting staff as they await Syndergaard’s comeback, but the unit still needs work in the meantime. It’s unclear, for instance, whether Seth Lugo will start or go back to the bullpen in 2021. And while the Mets did keep Steven Matz around on a $5.2MM salary, they’d be hard-pressed to count on him in the wake of his awful season.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Lugo and Matz, expectations are that the Mets will acquire at least one proven starter in the coming months. The arrival of Cohen seems to make the team a realistic suitor for reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, the leading free agent available at any position. The rest of the free-agent starting class isn’t nearly as exciting, though longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright and James Paxton are among accomplished arms looking for jobs. The trade market lost an enticing starter when Lance Lynn went from the Rangers to the White Sox earlier this month, but former Cy Young winner Blake Snell (Rays) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) have the potential to move. Either of those two would help the Mets’ rotation.

Whatever the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, the Cohen-led organization isn’t going to make moves that hamper their goal of building a perennial winner.

“You build champions, you don’t buy them,” Cohen stated during his introduction. “We’ve got a great core on this team, and we’re going to get better and I plan to make the investments we need to succeed. We want to win now, but we’re also building for the long term.”

Having already spent on May, McCann and Stroman, Cohen has so far lived up to his promise to invest in the roster. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will do next, but thanks to their new owner, they’re one of the truly intriguing teams to watch during what has been a slow winter in Major League Baseball.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

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After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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For the first time since 1988, the Dodgers are World Series champions. Regardless of what they do this offseason, they’ll enter 2021 as favorites to win it all again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make significant moves in order to bolster its chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

There is very little to dislike about this Dodgers roster, though the team is facing some notable losses in free agency. It starts with third baseman Justin Turner, who has been an unexpected gem for the team since it signed him to a minor league contract before the 2014 campaign. The bearded Turner has since emerged as one of the faces of the Dodgers and one of their most productive players, but considering he’s 36 years old and there may not be a universal designated hitter in 2021, it’s possible the Dodgers will move on in the coming months.

If the Dodgers do let Turner walk, there are a few alternate routes they could take at the hot corner. Los Angeles could stay within and hand the position to Edwin Rios, who saw quite a bit of time at third in 2020, or shift shortstop Corey Seager there. Otherwise, Kris Bryant (Cubs), Nolan Arenado (Rockies) or even free-agent infielder DJ LeMahieu could end up as targets. An Arenado acquisition seems especially unlikely, though, in part because the Rockies and Dodgers are division rivals. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently reported there are “monumental” roadblocks standing in the way of a potential Arenado-Dodgers union.

Of course, one can’t rule out another major trade that would deliver a franchise shortstop to the Dodgers. They’re certainly in good hands at the position with Seager, but if they want to shift him to third, trading for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor would make sense. Lindor seems like a surefire bet to go in a trade this offseason because he’s projected to make anywhere from $17.5MM to $21MM in arbitration next year, and the Indians are a frugal franchise. The Dodgers have more than enough young talent to put together a package for Lindor, and as such a wealthy franchise, the four-time All-Star’s salary would not stand in their way. So, in short, the Dodgers are as logical a Lindor suitor as anyone.

Moving to the outfield, the Dodgers may wave goodbye to Joc Pederson, who has been part of the organization since it selected him in the 11th round in 2010. Pederson debuted in 2014 and has since delivered above-average offensive production, though the left-handed swinger has struggled versus same-handed pitchers. That doesn’t mean the Dodgers won’t bring Pederson back, but it doesn’t seem all that likely when considering the talent the team has in its outfield. Right fielder Mookie Betts obviously isn’t going anywhere. Cody Bellinger played the majority of the year in center, and he’s obviously there to stay. Pederson played 20 of 60 games in left, but that total fell short of AJ Pollock’s 22. The Dodgers also have Chris Taylor in the fold as someone who can play multiple outfield positions.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers are rife with quality arms, though they are dealing with some upheaval in their bullpen. The club made a notable trade last week when it acquired onetime All-Star closer Corey Knebel from the Brewers. Knebel was terrible over a small sample of work last season, but it doesn’t seem fair to write him off over what was his first action since undergoing March 2019 Tommy John surgery. As recently as 2018, Knebel was a terrific reliever; if healthy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least re-emerge as a useful part of the Dodgers’ bullpen (especially considering their track record of getting the most out of veterans).

An effective Knebel would help the Dodgers replace Blake Treinen, Jake McGee and Pedro Baez, who are each free agents. Treinen was solid for the Dodgers after signing for $10MM last winter; McGee was even better on a per-inning basis after inking a low-risk deal in July; and Baez once again prevented numbers at a respectable clip. So how do the Dodgers replace those three? Well, they could re-sign any of them, but they’re otherwise looking at a free-agent market with a slew of familiar veteran relievers. And you can’t necessarily rule out another trade with the Brewers, who don’t seem to be closing the door on letting go of lights-out lefty Josh Hader. As with Lindor, the Dodgers have the talent to put together a deal for Hader.

The way the Dodgers assemble their bullpen will affect how they construct their starting staff (and vice versa). Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler have their spots locked down, and the same is probably true for David Price (if he returns next year after opting out in 2020). Beyond that group, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May – who combined for 28 starts last season – remain clear candidates for rotation spots. All three look more than qualified, but if the Dodgers would rather make a sizable splash (whether that means for another starter or a position player), at least one of them could fall out of contention or even be dealt elsewhere. The team has the money to sign the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, and it’s worth noting president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was at the helm of Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays drafted 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell in 2011. Snell could now be a trade candidate for the Rays, so it’s hard not to connect him to the Dodgers partly because of the Friedman connection. Barring the acquisition of a front-line starter, though, the Dodgers don’t look as if they really have to do much in their rotation. It’s a good-looking group as it is.

However this offseason goes, the Dodgers will enter 2021 as a well-oiled machine that should once again push for a World Series championship. But considering their financial prowess, their array of talent and many other teams hesitant to spend because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this winter could give the Dodgers a chance to become even better. That’s a scary thought for the rest of Major League Baseball.

MLB Arbitration And Non-Tender Tracker

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With the MLB non-tender deadline set for 7pm central time tonight, we’ll continue to see players agreeing to early “pre-tender” arbitration contracts.  As the deadline nears, many others will not be tendered contracts by their teams, making them free agents.

This year I’ve decided to track all of this activity in this Google Sheet.  Feel free to use it to follow along and create your own temporary filters on it.  Long-term, I’m planning to revamp all of our trackers.

You can also check out our free agent list and tracker, where I’ll be adding non-tendered players as the news comes in.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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After a ninth consecutive playoff miss, Phillies owner John Middleton opted to move on from general manager Matt Klentak. Now, two years after Middleton’s infamous “stupid money” comments, the Phillies seem to be putting out signals cautioning against a splashy winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $274MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $96.25MM through 2024
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $31MM through 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Jean Segura, INF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $23MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2022)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $19MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; contract also contains club options in 2025-26)
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of 2022 club option; Herrera is no longer on the 40-man roster)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s been nearly two months since Matt Klentak stepped down as Phillies general manager and accepted a reassignment to another position within the organization, yet we still don’t have any clear indication as to who will take over the reins. President Andy MacPhail, a former general manager of the Twins and Orioles himself, held onto his title amid the team’s front office shuffling, and assistant GM Ned Rice stepped into the GM role on an interim basis.

That pair brings decades of baseball operations experience to the table, but it’s rather befuddling that the next steps remain so unclear. The Phils reportedly gauged interest from Theo Epstein but were rebuffed, as the now-former Cubs president instead prefers to take at least a year away from the game. Former D-backs and Padres GM Josh Byrnes has interviewed, but there’s no indication as to whether he’s being strongly considered by Middleton.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggested in early October that the Phils might wait for MacPhail to retire at the end of the 2021 season before bringing in a hire, but that’s a puzzling approach in and of itself. If the end result of Klentak resigning is that he remains with the organization in a new role while his top lieutenant, Rice, continues to work alongside MacPhail — how much have things truly changed?

Klentak increasingly drew the ire of Phillies fans, with many voicing dissatisfaction regarding the team’s stalled extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now a free agent after rejecting a qualifying offer. That seems like misplaced frustration, frankly, as the final say on whether to pay Realmuto on a long-term arrangement lands with ownership, not the general manager. Over the past several months, most reports out of Philadelphia have suggested that the team is not optimistic about its chances to retain Realmuto.

If Realmuto walks, that seems like a Middleton-driven decision that would have happened regardless of who is in the GM’s chair. Yet at the press conference announcing the changing of the guard in the front office, Middleton almost seemed to endeavor to take credit for approving the Realmuto swap without taking blame for the failure to extend him. “…[M]y position was, I’d be willing to trade Sixto as long as you extend J.T.,” Middleton said at the time. “And if you don’t extend J.T., I wouldn’t trade Sixto.”

There’s a disconnect in those comments, plain and simple. Middleton implies that he held considerable influence over the acquisition of Realmuto but left the matter of an extension solely to his baseball operations outfit. That seems unlikely, and if it’s in fact accurate, that type of inconsistency with regard to autonomy is a failing in and of itself. It’s hard not to wonder if an experienced GM would look on from the outside and be turned off by an owner trying to take credit for the good and shirk responsibility for the bad.

None of this is to say that there weren’t plenty of misfires during Klentak’s time as general manager, of course. The Phillies’ catastrophic bullpen implosion over the past two seasons is glaring, and it seemed no matter what moves the front office made to rectify the situation, the outcome was poor. The signing of Carlos Santana that pushed Rhys Hoskins into an ill-suited left field role clearly did not pay dividends. Jake Arrieta’s three-year deal didn’t work out, either. At the end of the day, a five-year span of no playoff appearances in a big market will be enough to doom any baseball operations leader, as we saw not only in Philadelphia but in Anaheim this winter.

Front office composition aside, however, the bottom line for the Phillies this winter is that they’re not sure who will be catching games for them in 2021. They also have holes at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, in center field. On the pitching side of things, from the back of the rotation to the entirety of the relief corps, questions abound. The Phillies’ ability to strengthen these flaws are dependent on Middleton’s willingness to spend in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, and indications put forth thus far by both the owner and MacPhail have not been encouraging.

“At this time almost every club, honestly, it’s more about reduction of players than it is adding,” MacPhail said in late October (link via The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro). “…But the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even mid term is not very high.” There may be no better indication of the Phillies’ reluctance to spend than the fact that a team with a historically bad bullpen in 2020 allowed Brad Hand to pass through waivers unclaimed at $10MM. (Although, to be fair to the Phils, so did every other club in the game.)

To get a better handle on the Phillies’ outlook in the days and months to come, the payroll as a whole needs to be taken in. The Phils have seven players on guaranteed contracts in 2021 — counting Odubel Herrera, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster but is still owed this year’s salary. That group checks in at a weighty $108.5MM, and the remaining slate of arbitration-eligible players could push the Phils up to nearly $127MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Phillies’ payroll could top $135MM before they make a single addition.

Vince Velasquez and Hector Neris stand out as potential non-tender candidates. Cutting bait on that duo would bring the Phils back into the $125MM range but would also create more holes; Neris has served as the team’s closer in recent seasons, while Velasquez has been a fifth starter despite (at best) inconsistent results.

The Phillies were set to open the 2020 season with a payroll upwards of $186MM, so there’s certainly some breathing room between that mark and this year’s current levels. However, the expectation is that Middleton plans to reduce payroll. There’s no set number that’s been floated, but the assumption clearly should not be that the Phillies will return to those heights in 2021.

For that reason, retaining Realmuto could be a long shot. He’s spoken in the past about advancing the market for catchers, and while it’s nearly impossible to see him topping Joe Mauer’s record eight-year, $184MM contract, he could set his sights on besting Mauer’s average annual value of $23MM. If that’s the case, Realmuto would be an exceptionally steep add for the Phils at this time, even if there’s some backloading of the deal to offset the hit in the early years. Of course, backloading the deal would come with its own complications; the Phils are already paying Harper and Zack Wheeler a combined $49.5MM in 2024, and Middleton may not be keen on locking in upwards of $75MM in salary to three players a whole four years down the road.

Should Realmuto land elsewhere — he’s been connected to the Mets, Blue Jays and Nationals, among other clubs — the market does present alternatives. James McCann and Yadier Molina bring two starting-caliber options to the free-agent pool, and the trade market could feature several names, including manager Joe Girardi’s former Yankees backstop, Gary Sanchez. The Phils are already reported to like McCann as a fallback to Realmuto.

The Phillies’ other question marks on the position-player side of the roster lie up the middle as well. Rookie of the Year finalist Alec Bohm has third base locked down now, and Rhys Hoskins will be back at first base once he’s sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. Less clear, however, is the shortstop situation now that Didi Gregorius is back on the open market in search of a multi-year deal. Such a contract could come from the Phils, of course, but that again is dependent on Middleton’s tolerance for spending this winter. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery are on hand as potential options at second base and shortstop, although Segura doesn’t profile as a strong defensive option at the position at this point.

If the Phillies do bring in a shortstop — be it Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons or another option — they could play Segura at second base and pair Kingery in center field with Adam Haseley. The versatile Kingery struggled immensely at the plate in 2020, although he had a strong 2019 campaign and may have been severely impacted by a pre-season bout with Covid-19.

Kingery declined to make excuses for his poor showing on multiple occasions early in the year but eventually acknowledged that his overall energy level was not back to normal (link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber). As of mid-August, Kingery was still dealing with repeated shortness of breath and fatigue. It’s easy to imagine a healthier version of Kingery trending back toward 2019’s .258/.315/.474 output, and depending on the extent to which the Phillies plan to reduce payroll, a rebound from him could be one of the keys to their 2021 fate. Kingery was a league-average bat with plus baserunning and average or better glovework at three positions in 2019, after all. Being able to rely on him in center and/or at shortstop could prove pivotal.

If the Phils prefer Kingery/Segura in the middle infield and want to look outside the organization for some outfield help, there are affordable options to pair with Haseley’s lefty bat. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Cameron Maybin are all free agents. Enrique Hernandez has a strong track record against southpaws and could provide cover both in center field and around the infield, making him a nice fit (particularly if Bohm needs to spend time at first base early in the year while Hoskins finishes mending).

In the rotation, the Phillies’ need isn’t so dire. Aaron Nola and Wheeler are a formidable one-two punch, with Zach Eflin serving as a reliable source of innings in the third or fourth spot. Top prospect Spencer Howard struggled in 2020 but is still highly regarded. He’ll get another look next year.

That quartet has the makings of a competitive group, but the trade of Nick Pivetta, the possible non-tender of Velasquez and some struggles from prospects elsewhere in the organization all suggest that the Phils could benefit from a low-cost veteran to round out the group. The best course of action could simply be to see which veterans are left standing and willing to accept a low-base deal late in the winter. If they’re willing to spend more for some mid-rotation innings, names like Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Quintana are all available.

Looking at the Philadelphia bullpen, there’s little sign of immediate help for a group that in 2020 was one of the least-effective units in recent history. Several names are already gone — Brandon Workman, David Phelps, Jose Alvarez and Tommy Hunter are free agents. Heath Hembree was outrighted.

While the early market for free-agent starters has been strong, the relief market increasingly looks like an area where the “bloodbath” feared by many agents could manifest. Not only did Hand go unclaimed on waivers, but several seemingly reasonable club options on relievers were instead bought out. The expected glut of non-tenders could add another couple dozen relievers to the market.

For a Phillies club that doesn’t want to spend money but badly needs to add multiple arms to the relief corps, that could prove to be an ideal situation. The Phils could opt to spend big on one reliever and add several cost-effective names to round out the group, or more evenly distribute whatever resources they’re allotted to diversify risk and add several steady, competent arms to the bullpen.

The Phillies have underachieved for years now, and with several glaring holes on the roster and signals that they don’t plan to aggressively fill said needs, they could be in for more of the same. That said, this is still a group with a very talented core. The combination of Harper, Nola, Bohm, Hoskins and Wheeler is a strong start to any roster. If the Phils can shed some salary in creative ways or if Middleton changes course with a more aggressive financial approach, it’s possible to see this team contending.

Flawed as they may have been over the past three seasons, the Phillies have only narrowly missed the postseason each year. The NL East is more competitive than ever now that a young Marlins club is on the rise, but there’s enough talent in the Phillies’ core group to fuel a competitive unit next year if MacPhail/Rice or a new general manager push the right buttons.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals never really got on track in 2020, perhaps because the shortened season didn’t allow them time for the type of turn-around that defined their 2019 championship run.  With a number of key members of that title team heading into free agency, the Nats will look to reload for a return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Washington took care of some early business in re-signing Josh Harrison before the free agent market even opened, bringing the veteran utilityman back on a one-year, $1MM deal.  Between retaining Harrison and also adding former Diamondback Yasmany Tomas on a minor league contract for the first base mix, the Nats have taken steps to address an infield that could potentially be quite similar or quite different to 2020’s collection of talent.

We know Trea Turner will be at shortstop, and that Starlin Castro will return from a broken wrist to assume another everyday role, likely at second base.  Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia will both continue to get looks at the MLB level, though Kieboom struggled badly in his first extended taste of Major League action and Garcia didn’t hit much better while filling for Castro at second base.  Harrison provides bench depth at multiple positions, Tomas or rookie Jake Noll could factor into first base, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Nats and longtime first baseman Ryan Zimmerman will explore another one-year pact after Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season.

There’s certainly some room for growth here, which is why the Nationals have reportedly checked in on two major names in DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant.  Both players have been Nats targets in the past, though LeMahieu has a much bigger price tag now than he did in his previous trip through free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, and landing Bryant could require some tricky negotiating with the Cubs.  With Bryant coming off a down year, only one year of club control remaining and an $18.6MM projected arbitration salary in that final year, Chicago’s asking price for Bryant has surely lowered since last offseason.  But, these same concerns could also lead the Nationals to prefer LeMahieu as a longer-term answer.

Of course, the x-factor is whether or not the Nats will spend on higher-priced talent, as recent reports suggest players like LeMahieu or Bryant might not be on the radar.  It isn’t yet known whether GM Mike Rizzo will have the financial resources to make any significant additions, or if the front office will just have to avoid the top shelf in offseason shopping endeavors.

All of Washington’s free agents account for over $40MM in salary coming off the books, and the Nats also save in pure 2021 dollars since so much of the salaries owed to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are deferred.  That said, D.C. has a projected payroll of just under $170MM for 2021 with a luxury tax number roughly $163.9MM, so ownership may not want to stretch that significant budget much further.  One would imagine the Nationals also still want to set aside future payroll space for potential long-term extensions with Turner and Juan Soto, and the Nats will likely have some conversations with Scherzer about his future as he enters his final year under contract.

Until we get more of an idea about what the team is willing to spend, thoughts of acquiring LeMahieu, Bryant, or perhaps J.T. Realmuto may have to go on the backburner.  That said, the unsettled nature of Washington’s position player mix gives Rizzo some flexibility in looking for upgrades.

The Nats have the freedom to acquire a one-position type — hypothetically, let’s say Kolten Wong at second base — to lock down a single position and go from there, or they could give manager Dave Martinez even more options for late-game maneuvering by adding other multi-positional players.  While Harrison is already back in the fold, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Nationals looked to re-sign another of its veteran free agents (i.e. Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brock Holt) to further add depth.

The outfield also represents an area of need, as the Nats declined Adam Eaton’s option and opened up a hole in either left or right field.  Soto will probably remain in his customary left field spot, though the superstar has played some right field and could change positions if the Nats landed a solid left fielder.  Victor Robles remains the incumbent center fielder after a bout of COVID-19 led to a brutal year both offensively and defensively, and the Nationals can only hope that a healthy Robles can rediscover his 2019 form.

It might behoove the Nats to find an outfielder with center field capability just in case Robles struggles again, though Andrew Stevenson might be tabbed for a larger role after posting big numbers in limited at-bats in both 2019 and 2020.  Depending on how big D.C. was willing or able to go with adding outfield help, acquiring Michael Brantley, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Joc Pederson would make some sense (and give Washington another left-handed bat), or the club could opt for a part-timer to share playing time with Stevenson and Harrison.

The presence of a DH spot in National League lineups in 2021 would also help Washington in finding another hitter, allowing for even more time-sharing and position-shifting.  Someone like a Brantley (or a Marcell Ozuna, at the higher end of the market) would be even more of a fit for the District if the universal designated hitter was a sure thing, though a league decision on that front doesn’t appear to be imminent.

Let’s turn to the rotation, where the biggest question is how Strasburg will rebound.  The right-hander tossed only five innings in 2020 due to hand problems that eventually resulted in carpal tunnel syndrome surgery, thus getting his seven-year, $215MM contract off to an ominous start in its first year.  Scherzer and Patrick Corbin were also both more solid in 2020 than their usual excellent selves, and the Nationals surely hope that this dip in form was just temporary and not a sign of decline.

Since Anibal Sanchez’s option wasn’t exercised, Erick Fedde, Austin Voth, Joe Ross (who opted out of the 2020 season) and Wil Crowe are all in the mix for the fourth and fifth starter’s jobs.  Particularly since there might be some doubts about the top three starters, the Nationals will certainly look into adding a veteran pitcher to help deepen the rotation.  Trevor Bauer is probably too pricey a fit, but since Bauer might be the only free agent arm who could command a major multi-year deal, D.C. has its pick of several free agents that might require three years at the most.

Names like Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi represent the upper tier of remaining available pitchers in the non-Bauer class, and this is another area that represents some fluidity for the Nationals.  If they don’t want to spend a ton of resources on pitching, they could try to find essentially the next Anibal Sanchez — a veteran coming off a good season and with perhaps a couple of red flags on the resume that the Nats don’t feel are a big concern (or can be overlooked).

The bullpen continued to be an issue for Washington, and after investing in Daniel Hudson and Will Harris last winter, the Nats might not want to make more big expenditures on relief pitching.  The team could opt to mostly stand pat and hope that Hudson pitches better as the preferred closing option, or perhaps look out for other closer-capable free agents, or perhaps elevate an internal candidate like Tanner Rainey into more high-leverage moments.  D.C. has already re-signed Aaron Barrett to a minors contract and added minor leaguer Sam Clay on an MLB deal, but some more tinkering (left-handed relief is a particular need) is sure to come as the Nationals try to finally fix their relief corps.

With all the early focus on the Braves’ free agent pitching signings, the Marlins’ hiring of Kim Ng as general manager, the Mets’ expected splurge under new owner Steve Cohen, and the Phillies’ front office machinations, the Nationals have largely flown under the radar this winter.  But, with so many needs around the diamond, the Nats could end up being one of the offseason’s busier teams.  Given Rizzo’s track record of success in both major and seemingly minor acquisitions, possibilities abound for the Nationals in the coming months.

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