Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
A new name represents a new era in Cleveland baseball, and the club will look to mark their inaugural season as the Guardians with a return to playoff contention.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Ramirez, 3B: $12MM for 2022 (salary guaranteed after Guardians exercised club option; Guardians also have $13MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Hedges – $3.8MM
- Amed Rosario – $5.0MM
- Franmil Reyes – $4.4MM
- Shane Bieber – $4.8MM
- Bradley Zimmer – $1.5MM
- Cal Quantrill – $2.8MM
- Josh Naylor – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Zimmer
Option Decisions
- Declined $7MM club option on C Roberto Perez, Perez received $450K buyout
Free Agents
- Perez, Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, Nick Wittgren, Cam Hill, Wilson Ramos
After eight consecutive winning seasons, the Guardians finally dropped under the .500 mark with an 80-82 record in 2021. With the lineup still producing runs at an inconsistent rate, Cleveland couldn’t make up the difference thanks to some injury absences in their rotation. Simply getting Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac healthy and productive for all of 2022 will likely do more to boost the team’s chances than almost anything they could do on the transaction front, though the Guardians now face an interesting set of decisions this offseason.
Or, maybe, it just boils down to one over-arching decision — how much are the Guardians willing to spend? Jose Ramirez represents the lone guaranteed contract on the books, and the arbitration class projects to earn $23.5MM and even that total could be reduced by a non-tender or two. Between that group and the pre-arbitration players on the rosters, Roster Resource estimates roughly a $49.2MM payroll for the Guardians next season, which is well below the $124MM spent in 2019. A return to the (comparatively) big expenditures of 2017-18 may not happen until a new minority owner is found, though both team chairman/CEO Paul Dolan and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti have said the Guardians will have a larger payroll to work with in 2022.
Even if spending rises to just around the $100MM mark, that gives Antonetti’s front office some real leverage in building around a strong core. Ramirez is one of the game’s best players, Franmil Reyes boasts tremendous power, Emmanuel Clase emerged as a strong closer, Amed Rosario and Myles Straw look like quality everyday regulars, and the rotation is one of baseball’s best when healthy. If anything, Cleveland’s rotation might even be deeper than usual — Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie each had some quality outings while filling in for the injured starters in 2021, so either or both could build on this experience to take another step forward as the fourth and fifth starters.
Cleveland usually doesn’t spend much on its rotation due to the team’s knack for developing homegrown arms, though in the wake of 2021’s injuries, investing on a low-cost veteran might not be a bad idea. Eli Morgan and Logan Allen are already on hand as more starting depth, but a Wade LeBlanc-esque swingman type could also work, as that pitcher could then also help out a bullpen that will need to cover some innings.
Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, and Nick Wittgren are all headed for free agency, representing 183 1/3 frames of work out of last year’s pen. As with the starters, the Guardians aren’t prone to making any big outlays for relief pitching, so it’s probable to expect some minor league signings competing with the team’s in-house pitchers come Spring Training. It also isn’t out of the question that the Guardians could target a younger and more promising relief candidate as part of trade talks with other clubs, a la how they landed Clase from the Rangers as part of the 2019 Corey Kluber deal.
Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco have all been traded over the last few years, so it can’t be ruled out that the Guardians could look to deal another starter in exchange for a top-tier younger bat. However, the circumstances are a little different now, as while those past starters were all becoming increasingly expensive, Cleveland’s current rotation group is still pretty affordable. Bieber and Quantrill are the only ones who have even reached arbitration eligibility, and Bieber is projected for a $4.8MM salary in his first trip through the arb process. This is significantly below what Bieber would have earned if he’d been able to follow up his 2020 Cy Young Award-winning campaign with a similar season, so his injury-plagued year cost him both on the field and in the pocketbook.
In the wake of such a year, could Bieber perhaps be more open to a contract extension? The ace right-hander turned down the Guardians’ offers last spring, but there would seem to be room for a deal considering how the team has no official money committed for the 2023 season and beyond. If not Bieber, expect the Guardians to look into extensions for any of Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, or McKenzie, given how the organization has long prioritized locking up talent earlier in their careers.
Since Bieber is under control for three more years at arbitration-controlled prices, he isn’t the star whose future has drawn the most speculation. Ramirez is under team control for only two more seasons (2023 via another club option) and is already making a significant salary, even if $12MM is a bargain for the third baseman’s outstanding production. 2024 will be Ramirez’s age-31 season, so even if the Guardians are open to a splurge on what would easily be the biggest contract in franchise history, the question remains if they would take that plunge for Ramirez specifically, even if he isn’t showing any signs of decline.
Extensions talks with Ramirez have yet to yield any progress, and any number of teams are ready and willing to step up with huge trade offers if Cleveland did decide to move their superstar. Like with the starters, however, the timing doesn’t seem quite right for a Ramirez trade, since his contract isn’t prohibitive and the Guardians are planning to contend next year. Barring a ridiculous trade offer that was too good to ignore, the Guardians are more likely to deal Ramirez next winter, if they end up dealing him at all.
With this in mind, expect Ramirez to return as the linchpin of a Cleveland lineup that underwhelmed in 2021, and was no-hit on three (or, unofficially, four) separate occasions. Despite the lack of overall punch, some interesting pieces are already in place — Ramirez is set at third base, Reyes will mostly serve as the DH and play some corner outfield, Straw will be the everyday center fielder, Bobby Bradley is slated for at least a share of first base duties, and Rosario will play somewhere, provisionally at shortstop for now.
We’ll begin with the unsettled middle infield, as Rosario might end up as the regular shortstop, or be used in a super-utility role that would see him also get time in the outfield or as part of the crowded second base mix. Rosario’s future at shortstop may hinge on how quickly prospect Gabriel Arias is able to develop his bat to match his already-excellent defense, and Arias took a nice step forward by hitting .284/.348/.454 with 13 home runs over 483 plate appearances at Triple-A last season. If Arias still needs more seasoning, Andres Gimenez could also get more shortstop time if he hits as he did during his 2020 rookie season with the Mets, as opposed to his disappointing numbers with Cleveland last year.
Gimenez joins Owen Miller, Yu Chang, and Ernie Clement in the second base mix, with some type of platoon likely (Gimenez is a left-handed hitter, and the others are righty bats). Top prospect Tyler Freeman will make his Triple-A debut in 2022, so he is expected to factor into the big league roster sometime closer to the end of the season. There is enough volume at the position that a veteran offseason addition probably isn’t likely, since the Guardians will use Spring Training and the season itself to see what they have with this collection of players, with Freeman tentatively penciled in as their second baseman of the future.
While adding a regular middle infielder may not be feasible, adding a regular to the middle infield group could be more of a fit. Chris Taylor would be a nice addition to just about any team’s roster, but he might fit particularly well onto a Guardians team looking for stability in the middle infield and at both corner outfield slots. If Taylor is too expensive, a veteran utility type like Josh Harrison or Leury Garcia could provide some of the same versatility (if much less of a hitting ceiling) at a far lower price.
Since Cleveland’s biggest-ever free agent signing is still Edwin Encarnacion‘s three-year, $60MM pact from the 2016-17 offseason, it remains to be seen if the Guardians are willing to spend to the level necessary to land a notable free agent even in the second tier of this year’s market. Looking at some potential outfielders who could be on the Guardians’ radar, Taylor (projected for four years and $64MM), Kyle Schwarber (four years/$70MM), and Seiya Suzuki (five years/$55MM) would all likely require contracts that might be out of the team’s comfort zone. Avisail Garcia, Mark Canha, or perhaps even Michael Conforto could be more viable options, though signing Conforto would require Cleveland to surrender a draft pick via the qualifying offer.
Again, the lack of future money on the books could make the Guardians more willing to stretch the budget to include a premium bat. The Encarnacion signing came about due to something of a perfect storm of circumstances — there wasn’t a ton of interest in Encarnacion’s market, and Cleveland felt the time was right for a big strike having just lost a heartbreaker of a World Series in 2016. Coming off a rare losing season, and with some financial flexibility, and with the wholly unique environment of debuting a new team name, Cleveland could again see the winter as a unique opportunity to land a big name.
Conversely, spending on multiple needs is a viable and maybe more realistic strategy than acquiring only one high-priced player. Landing two starting corner outfielders, for instance, would perhaps be the swiftest way of solving an outfield depth problem that has plagued Cleveland for years. Straw does represent one box checked, as the trade deadline acquisition offers on-base ability, speed, and a solid glove that should play well as the Guardians’ center fielder.
As for the other members of the 2021 outfield, it seems like the Guardians are trending towards more or less cleaning house. Daniel Johnson has already been designated for assignment, while Bradley Zimmer is a non-tender candidate and Oscar Mercado is also no guarantee for the Opening Day roster. Assuming at least one more full-time outfielder is acquired to join Straw in the everyday lineup, Cleveland can still potentially fill the rest of the outfield depth from within. Factors to consider include Rosario’s utility value, how much time Reyes might see outside of the DH spot, prospect Nolan Jones‘ development as an outfielder, and Josh Naylor’s readiness in the wake of major ankle surgery.
The Guardians declined their club option on Roberto Perez, so the two sides may now be parting ways after Perez’s eight seasons in Cleveland. Austin Hedges represents a cheaper in-house option as a similar glove-first, light-hitting catcher, and while Perez’s $7MM price tag was too rich for the Guardians’ blood, a reunion at a lower salary could be possible. With Hedges and prospects Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida in the pipeline, Cleveland is likely to consider only shorter-term veterans like Perez for their needs behind the plate, unless the front office feels a more bold long-term answer is required. Catching depth isn’t exactly easy to find, but speculatively, teams like the Blue Jays (who are often linked to Cleveland on the rumor mill) or the Braves lineup as trade partners.
First base could also be a position of need, depending on how comfortable the Guardians feel about Bradley. In his first season of regular playing time, Bradley hit 16 homers but batted only .208/.294/.445 and struck out in 99 of his 279 plate appearances. To begin the season, Cleveland could let a platoon of Bradley and Chang or Miller handle first base duties, and then perhaps look for first base help during the year if an upgrade is required. If the club wants to move now, however, someone like Anthony Rizzo might fall within the Guardians’ price range in free agency, and the likes of Matt Olson, Luke Voit, or J.D. Davis could be available targets on the trade market.
Even considering the extra payroll space involved this winter, it’s probably safe to assume the Guardians will stick largely to the trade route rather than free agency, considering how Antonetti’s front office has generally found quite a bit of success in swinging trades over the years. Rival clubs will surely ask about Freeman, Arias, Jones, and other top minor leaguers in negotiations, and Cleveland will be hesitant about moving any of the names at the top of their board just because of how much emphasis the team puts on building from within. Since several of the Guardians’ most notable prospects will likely hit the majors within a year or two, it does give the team some flexibility in deciding who to keep or who to dangle as a trade chip, especially since most teams prioritize big league-ready young talent.
No shortage of options are available to the Guardians this winter, which is why any thoughts of dealing Ramirez or Bieber to spark a rebuild seem extremely premature. While the AL Central promises to be more competitive in 2022, the Guardians certainly must feel like winning the division crown is possible, and even having a healthy rotation last year would’ve gone a long way towards reducing the 13-game gap between Cleveland and the first-place White Sox. If you’re looking for a metaphor for the launch of the Guardians name, maybe 2021 was the bridge year necessary to get the team past the pandemic and back to some semblance of business as usual, since the Guardians are likely to be aggressive in getting back to winning baseball.
Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade
Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield. As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of. Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production. He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.
And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder. As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.
So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success. But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework. Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.
Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money. The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023. If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).
“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history. Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching. If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.
It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier. The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.
From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right. The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door. This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.
This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions. With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.
Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers. With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…
Teams Linked To Starling Marte
- Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level. While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
- Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club. His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend. For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
- Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield. With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
- Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield. One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
- Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar. Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
- Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price. However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
- Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks. The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.
Other Teams With Outfield Needs
- Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs. Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
- Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field. If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
- Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut. What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery. Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
- Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest. Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role. Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
- Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia. There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy. Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.
More Creative Options
- Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons. Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
- Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense. Enrique Hernandez‘s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position. As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
- White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired. Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
- Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton. Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.
Free Agent Faceoff: Kris Bryant Vs. Kyle Seager Vs. Eduardo Escobar
If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.
Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.
Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.
Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.
As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.
There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.
If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.
(Poll link for app users)
Who would you rather sign?
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Kris Bryant 57% (6,339)
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Eduardo Escobar 24% (2,720)
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Kyle Seager 19% (2,072)
Total votes: 11,131
Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles lost 110 games in 2021, the third time in the past four seasons with a sub-.400 winning percentage. It’s been five seasons since the Orioles last made the postseason, and the odds are stacked against them in the AL East.
Guaranteed Contracts
- None
- 2022 commitments: $0MM
- Total long-term commitments: $0MM
Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF: $7.9MM
- Anthony Santander, OF: $3.7MM
- John Means, LHP: $3.1MM
- Jorge Lopez, RHP: $1.5MM
- Paul Fry, LHP: $1.1MM
- Tanner Scott, LHP: $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Lopez
Option Decisions
- None
Free Agents
Take a look at the guaranteed contracts section above and that’s about all you need to know about the state of the Baltimore Orioles. The good news is that they no longer have any onerous contracts on the books, but no amount of frugality will turn you into a rich man. At some point, the Orioles are going to need to start putting some long-term building blocks in place if they want to compete in the AL East.
The fact is, before the 2021 season even started, we pretty much knew what the two biggest stories of the year would be for these Orioles. Trey Mancini‘s return was going to galvanize the fanbase and give the Baltimore faithful a real feel-good story to follow, and Adley Rutschman would continue his march towards the Major Leagues. Both narratives played about almost exactly as expected — and that’s not to diminish Mancini’s comeback, which was genuinely heartwarming, or Rutschman’s impressive march towards Camden Yards.
Mancini put on a show in the Home Run Derby and played in 147 games during the regular season. He hit .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs in 616 plate appearances, good for just 0.8 rWAR overall. It was a good, albeit not great return to action for Mancini, who nevertheless gave fans in Baltimore something to cheer about.
Rutschman took another giant steps towards becoming the face of the franchise. He hit .271/.392/.508 in 80 games with Double-A Bowie before earning his promotion to Triple-A, where he slashed .312/.405/.490 across 185 plate appearances. If Rutschman isn’t in the Major Leagues in 2022, it’s because something went seriously wrong with the CBA negotiations and nobody is playing baseball. He’s ready.
Beyond those narratives, there was a third story that somewhat unexpectedly took over headlines in Baltimore this season: the emergence of Cedric Mullins. The 26-year-old broke out in a major way, posting MVP-caliber numbers, making his first All-Star game and earning his first Silver Slugger Award. He posted a 5.7 rWAR season while slashing .291/.360/.518, hitting 30 bombs and stealing 30 bases to be the Majors only 30-30 player. Those of us who remember Mullins from a dismal 22-game stint back in 2019 need to seriously re-calibrate expectations for Baltimore’s newest star.
The rest of the roster remains in serious flux, especially on the pitching side, where John Means continues to be their undisputed top starter. Means had a good year, logging 146 2/3 innings in 26 starts with a 3.62 ERA. At 28 years old, he may not seem like the ideal building block for the rotation, but he is still under team control for three more seasons, which is why the team hasn’t seriously explored trading Means up to this point.
Again, however, we must look to the minor leagues to see the most impactful developments for Baltimore. Grayson Rodriguez looks like an ace in the making, and like Rutschman, he’s nearing Major League readiness. Rodriguez made 18 starts in Double-A, logging 79 2/3 innings with a stellar 2.60 ERA/2.73 FIP. The towering 6’5″ right-hander is a significant talent, and he could be pitching in Baltimore by next summer.
Southpaw D.L. Hall could join him there soon. Hall was just added to the 40-man roster. He made just seven starts in Double-A but nevertheless posted a promising 3.33 ERA in those 31 2/3 innings. He also put up a 3.46 ERA/3.22 FIP over 80 2/3 innings in High-A. Nothing is a sure thing in the prospect world, but in Rodriguez and Hall, the O’s have a pretty strong pair of rotation arms that are pretty close to kicking Baltimore’s rebuild into high gear.
Given how close Baltimore’s highest profile prospects are to the Majors, it’s fair to wonder if this might be the winter when GM Mike Elias finally make a significant play for a free agent. They aren’t ready to compete, but they also might not be quite as far from the types of pre-contender free agency deals that we’ve seen for veterans like Jayson Werth and Manny Machado.
There’s certainly some room on the roster (and obviously on the payroll) to add a veteran or two. They’re fairly well stocked in the outfield where Mullins was flanked by Anthony Santander and Austin Hays. Whichever of Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle aren’t playing first base can also spend time in the grass, though they’re both better suited in a designated hitter role. Hays had a bit of a breakout 3.1 rWAR season, though Santander took a step back after a solid 2020. Santander and Hays are under team control for three and four more years respectively, so they are likely to continue to log a starter’s workload in the grass. That said, Mancini, Mountcastle, Santander, and Hays may be a perfect barbershop quartet, but the O’s could easily split up the timeshare for left, right, first, and DH more than four ways, should Elias find a free agent at the right price.
There’s room for another character in the outfield carousel, but if Elias is to inject some talent into this lineup, he’s most likely to do so in the infield. As of today, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Kelvin Gutierrez rank as the incumbents next to Mountcastle in the infield. Mountcastle, at 24 and a longtime top prospect, probably has the longest leash of the four after slashing a palatable .255/.309/.487 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs in 586 plate appearances. He has now been 16 percent better than average with the stick by measure of wRC+ in 726 career plate appearances in the Majors. That’s a promising chunk of action for Mountcastle, though the bar will be set high since he does not add much value with his glove.
Mateo, Urias, and Gutierrez are more place holders than long-term pieces. Mateo is the youngest, and he will turn 27 in June of next season. Urias as been the most productive of the bunch, as the 27-year-old has hit an impressive .286/.365/.425 in 323 plate appearances over two seasons since being claimed off waivers from the Cardinals.
Urias should feel secure in his roster spot, but his ability to move around the infield makes the right-handed hitter a pretty ideal fit as a fringe starter/utility type. That might be the ceiling for Mateo and Richie Martin, Urias’ theoretical backup at short, who hasn’t shown enough bat to stick it in the Majors (.214/.343/.348 in 134 plate appearance in the minors last year).
They can’t all be tenth men, however, which is where a free agent or two could make sense for Baltimore. Their prospect lists aren’t real deep in terms of infielders nearing the Majors, outside of Jahmai Jones, a former Angels’ prospect acquired last February for Alex Cobb. Jones hit alright in the minors this season (.251/.343/.445), but the numbers aren’t so flashy as to block the acquisition of a potential free agent. They recently added Lucius Fox from the Royals to join this pool of potential infielders.
Of course, this is all speculation, as Elias has yet to show a willingness to spend in free agency since taking over in November 2018. To his credit, there has been little reason to spend on a team destined for the AL East basement. Given that they are a near certainty to finish in the basement again in 2022, it may be a year or two early for Elias to open up the pocketbook.
Elias’ challenge, after all, is unique for a rebuilding given the incline of the uphill climb they face in their division. The Red Sox nearly made the World Series, the Blue Jays are just beginning an era of presumed prosperity, the Rays have a farm system that should keep them in contention for the next half decade, and the Yankees’ haven’t had a losing season since Derek Jeter‘s draft year. In that climate, the Orioles aren’t likely to luck into a playoff spot.
Still, if Mullins’ breakout is real and Rutschman has the type of 2022 that dreams are made of, the Birds will have long-term answers at the two toughest positions to fill. The third position on that list – shortstop – happens to have a robust collection of talent available in free agency this season. I know, it’s not super likely that the Orioles will reel in Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, but they could be players at the tail end of that market, especially if the jobs dry up elsewhere and someone like Javier Baez begins to consider a short-term make-good kind of offer. Speculatively speaking, there’s also a potentially robust secondary market on the trade block, should they want to make a move for someone like Paul DeJong, a spiritual successor for J.J. Hardy whose contract should make him an easy get in terms of the talent return.
Elias could also look to the hot corner, though there aren’t as many appealing options after Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor. The same can be said for second base. At the very least, Baltimore could look to make the type of addition they’ve made in recent seasons, bringing in a veteran on a short-term deal in the mold of Freddy Galvis, keeping one eye on flipping them at the deadline. Jose Iglesias, Cesar Hernandez, Josh Harrison, Leury Garcia, Jonathan Villar, Matt Duffy, or Marwin Gonzalez might merit consideration for that kind of deal. Former Mariner Shed Long is a textbook target as a former top prospect who is still relatively young at 26 years old.
Galvis’ one-year, $1.5MM deal was the only Major League contract Elias handed out last offseason, and until we see otherwise, that’s probably the level of dealing that we can expect from Elias.
There’s even less likely to be a splashy free agent pitcher making his new home in Baltimore, though the O’s ought to at least explore the middle of the market. One of Elias’ trademarks in recent seasons has been acquiring enough low-cost, quad-A-type arms to keep their farmhands fresh. He hasn’t wanted to rush any of their pitching prospects through the system, and that means having enough talent on hand to survive a full 162-game season.
Players like Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, and Keegan Akin give the Orioles options for the rotation, but only Means has a rotation spot on lockdown. The others not only could be bumped from the rotation, but they have options remaining as well. Paul Fry, Dillon Tate, Rule 5 pick Tyler Wells, southpaw Tanner Scott and breakout righty Cole Sulser did enough to earn bullpen seats next year, but there’s definitely room for an addition or two beyond that group.
Frankly, Elias has already been relatively busy this winter. He allowed Hunter Harvey to be claimed off waivers while re-signing Marcos Diplan and Spenser Watkins on minor league deals. Elias and manager Brandon Hyde also brought in a pair of hitting coaches to bring some new voices into the clubhouse.
The Orioles aren’t breaking any doors down yet to get out of the AL East basement, but there is intrigue at the top of Baltimore’s roster for the first time in years. Rutschman is the type of two-way talent that can change the course of a franchise, but when he arrives, the ticking clock starts, too.
Check out the rest of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series here.
40-Man Roster Roundup
This evening marked the deadline for teams to add Rule 5 draft-eligible players to their 40-man rosters. Accordingly, we’ve seen a large swath of transactions within the last couple days. Here, we’ll make note of the players each team protected from the Rule 5 draft, acquired from outside the organization, and removed from the roster before the deadline. We’ll also keep track of how many 40-man roster spots each team has left vacant.
AL East
- Added to roster: Felix Bautista, Kyle Bradish, Logan Gillaspie, DL Hall, Kevin Smith, Terrin Vavra
- Claimed: Lucius Fox (from Royals)
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Jeter Downs, Josh Winckowski
- Number of open roster spots: 3
- Added to roster: Oswaldo Cabrera, Ron Marinaccio, Everson Pereira, Stephen Ridings, JP Sears
- Designated for assignment: Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor, Tyler Wade
- Traded: Nick Nelson, Donny Sands (to Phillies)
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Jonathan Aranda, Calvin Faucher, Ford Proctor, Tommy Romero
- Traded: Brent Honeywell Jr. (to A’s)
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Hagen Danner, Bowden Francis, Leo Jimenez, Zach Logue
- Claimed: Shaun Anderson (from Padres)
- Number of open roster spots: 2
AL Central
- Added to roster: Jason Bilous, Bennett Sousa
- Number of open roster spots: 5
- Added to roster: Tyler Freeman, Steven Kwan, Bryan Lavastida, Cody Morris, Jhonkensy Noel, Richie Palacios, Konnor Pilkington, Bryan Rocchio, Jose Tena, George Valera
- Acquired: Tobias Myers (from Tampa Bay)
- Designated for assignment: Justin Garza, Daniel Johnson, J.C. Mejia, Scott Moss, Kyle Nelson, Harold Ramirez, Alex Young
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Kody Clemens, Angel De Jesus
- Outrighted: Niko Goodrum, Jacob Robson, Nivaldo Rodriguez
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Jonathan Bowlan, Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Collin Snider, Nathan Webb
- Lost on waivers: Lucius Fox (to Orioles)
- Designated for assignment: Kyle Zimmer
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Blayne Enlow, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Cole Sands, Chris Vallimont, Josh Winder
- Designated for assignment: Willians Astudillo, Charlie Barnes
- Outrighted: Kyle Garlick, Devin Smeltzer
- Number of open roster spots: 0
AL West
- Added to roster: Jonathan Bermudez, Shawn Dubin, Jeremy Pena, Joe Perez
- Traded: Garrett Stubbs (to Phillies)
- Lost on waivers: Kent Emanuel (to Phillies)
- Outrighted: Freudis Nova
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Elvis Peguero
- Outrighted: Chad Wallach
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Nick Allen, Jonah Bride, Jordan Diaz, Jorge Juan, Cody Thomas
- Acquired: Brent Honeywell (from Rays)
- Number of open roster spots: 6
- Added to roster: Ray Kerr, Alberto Rodriguez, Julio Rodriguez’
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Ezequiel Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Ricky Vanasco
- Outrighted: Kyle Cody, Edwar Colina
- Number of open roster spots: 3
NL East
- Added to roster: Freddy Tarnok, Drew Waters, Brooks Wilson, William Woods
- Number of open roster spots: 0
Miami Marlins
- Added to roster: None
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Jose Butto, Ronny Mauricio, Adam Oller, Mark Vientos
- Number of open roster spots: 3
- Added to roster: Luis Garcia, James McArthur, Jhailyn Ortiz
- Acquired: Nick Nelson, Donny Sands (from Yankees), Garrett Stubbs (from Astros)
- Claimed: Kent Emanuel (from Astros)
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Donovan Casey, Evan Lee
- Number of open roster spots: 1
NL Central
- Added to roster: Ethan Roberts, Nelson Velazquez
- Number of open roster spots: 3
- Added to roster: Allan Cerda, Alexis Diaz, Daniel Duarte, Hunter Greene, James Marinan
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: None
- Outrighted: Mark Mathias
- Number of open roster spots: 5
- Added to roster: Liover Peguero, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski, Travis Swaggerty
- Designated for assignment: Michael Perez
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Brendan Donovan, Freddy Pacheco, Jake Walsh
- Number of open roster spots: 4
NL West
- Added to roster: Cooper Hummel, Kristian Robinson, Ryan Weiss
- Outrighted: Miguel Aguilar, Kevin Ginkel, Riley Smith
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Noah Davis, Ryan Rolison, Ezequiel Tovar
- Number of open roster spots: 1
- Added to roster: Jacob Amaya, Michael Grove, Eddys Leonard, James Outman, Jorbit Vivas
- Designated for assignment: Billy McKinney, Zach Reks
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Efrain Contreras, MacKenzie Gore, Eguy Rosario, Steven Wilson
- Lost on waivers: Shaun Anderson (to Blue Jays)
- Outrighted: Reggie Lawson, Jorge Ona
- Number of open roster spots: 0
- Added to roster: Sean Hjelle, Heliot Ramos, Randy Rodriguez
- Designated for assignment: Jay Jackson, Dedniel Nunez (returned to Mets as 2020 Rule 5 draftee)
- Number of open roster spots: 0
Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics
After four winning seasons, the window may now be closed for the Athletics, as the team seems intent on cutting payroll and trading several key players.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $14MM through 2022, Rangers paying $7.25MM of salary ($15MM club option for 2023 becomes guaranteed if Andrus has 550 plate appearances in 2022)
- Stephen Piscotty, OF: $8.25MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Sean Manaea – $10.2MM
- Chris Bassitt – $8.8MM
- Chad Pinder – $2.8MM
- Matt Chapman – $9.5MM
- Matt Olson – $12.0MM
- Tony Kemp – $2.2MM
- Frankie Montas – $5.2MM
- Lou Trivino – $2.9MM
- Deolis Guerra – $900K
- Ramon Laureano – $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Pinder, Guerra
Option Decisions
- Jake Diekman, RP: Received $750K buyout after Athletics declined $4MM club option for 2022
- Andrew Chafin, RP: Declined his end of a $5.25MM mutual option for 2022 (received $500K buyout)
Free Agents
- Chafin, Diekman, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Yusmeiro Petit, Jed Lowrie, Sergio Romo, Josh Harrison, Khris Davis, Mitch Moreland, Yan Gomes, Mike Fiers, Trevor Rosenthal, Burch Smith, Pete Kozma, Michael Feliz
With such a large and increasingly expensive arbitration class on the horizon, 2021 seemed like a make-or-break year for this version of the Athletics, who looked increasingly like an all-in team as the season proceeded. The A’s made big trade deadline moves for Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew Chafin, and Yan Gomes to help down the stretch but it wasn’t enough, as Oakland finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
The disappointment is palpable among A’s fans, who already face the uncertainty of whether or not their team will even still be in Oakland in a few years’ time, and now are looking at yet another step-back or reload of the roster. As general manager David Forst plainly put it, “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”
Obligatory note: we aren’t talking enormous payroll numbers here. While the Athletics do have a big arbitration class, those costs are belied by the fact that Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty represent the club’s only guaranteed salary commitments. Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource project Oakland’s current 2022 payroll to sit in the range of roughly $81.2MM to $85.36MM, which would still represent one of the lower payrolls of any team in baseball. Just standing pat in this range would make it tricky for the A’s to make any necessary upgrades, but executive vice president Billy Beane and Forst have done more with less in the past, so a case can certainly be made that Athletics owner John Fisher could or should spend enough to allow one more season with this core group of players.
And yet, that is not how Fisher (or any Athletics ownership group of the last 25 years) operates. The only question now is just how much payroll will be slashed, and the first herald of the spending cuts came when longtime manager Bob Melvin was allowed to interview with the Padres and ultimately take San Diego’s managerial job. Melvin was still under contract for the 2022 season, but Oakland let Melvin go without any compensation, seemingly just to get Melvin’s reported $4MM salary off the books. There hasn’t yet been much news about who the Athletics might yet hire as Melvin’s replacement, and under the circumstances, it is probably best to expect a first-time manager more willing to take a lesser salary.
Some reports suggest the A’s might be aiming to spend as little as $50MM on player salaries in 2022, and if such a drop is coming, there is no shortage of potential sell-off moves available to the team. Since extensions now seem to be out of the question, impending free agents like Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea are the likeliest to go. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Frankie Montas are only controlled through 2023, and Olson’s projected $12MM arbitration salary would represent the biggest outlay on the Athletics’ books, so the All-Star first baseman may have already played his last game for Oakland.
If there is a silver lining to this situation for Athletics fans, past history has shown that the team isn’t likely to deal all five of these players. Beane has never taken the A’s through a total rebuild over his 24 years running the front office, so it doesn’t seem likely that he would embark on such a course now (with the caveat that the A’s may still be feeling pandemic-related revenue losses). If we’re targeting which A’s players are the likeliest to be traded, it is also worth guessing which may still be on the roster come Opening Day. Montas, for instance, is probably the least likely of the “big five” members of the arbitration class to be moved, if for no other reason than he is less expensive that Manaea and Bassitt, and Oakland isn’t likely to move all three of its top starters.
The other optimistic slant on the Athletics’ winter is that Beane and Forst have walked this road before and have consistently been able to get the A’s back on track within a couple of years, at most. As difficult as it will be to replace some of the names likely to leave Oakland within the next few months, it isn’t totally out of the question that the A’s can still be competitive in 2022, if Beane/Forst can acquire some MLB-ready younger players who break out on their new team.
For two years of a power-hitting, Gold Glove first baseman like Olson, for instance, the A’s can justifiably ask for multiple top prospects and a player off a trade partner’s big league roster that could help the Athletics in 2022. Someone like the Yankees’ Luke Voit makes for a reasonable example — Olson would be taking over first base anyway — and the Yankees have already been linked to Olson. (Of course, the A’s might not be interested in Voit and his salary if they aren’t planning to try to contend next year.) The A’s have often focused on MLB-ready starters in major trades as well, which is how they came to acquire Bassitt and Montas in the first place.
The Yankees, to be clear, are just one example. Any of the Brewers, Guardians, Padres, Red Sox, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies or Braves could make sense for an Olson trade, perhaps in some cases hinging on other roster moves at first base and/or whether National League teams will have a DH in 2022.
Olson is valuable enough that the Athletics shouldn’t dilute their potential trade return by attaching an undesirable contract (i.e. Piscotty or Andrus) to a possible trade package, yet the club might explore this tactic with other trade chips at some point in the winter. For instance, if Olson and Manaea are dealt to get some new young talent in the pipeline, the A’s could go into full salary dump mode and package something like Bassitt and Piscotty together to a team willing to absorb Piscotty’s salary in order to ultimately give up lesser prospects in the deal. As much as it would hurt to give up any of the “big five” for a miminal return, deploying this strategy in one trade would sting less if Oakland has already banked some prospects in earlier trades. Also, moving Piscotty or Andrus might free up enough payroll to spare the A’s from having to make a subsequent trade of a Chapman or a Montas.
Identifying specific target areas for the 2022 A’s is a little difficult at the moment, considering we don’t yet known the breadth of the club’s fire sale. Third base, for example, could either be a set position or a big vacancy depending on whether Chapman stays or goes. To this end, Chad Pinder might be a useful piece to keep in his final year of arbitration eligibility, since Pinder’s versatility at least gives the A’s some flexibility in how they address various positions.
It is safe to call outfield help a must, since Marte and Mark Canha are both free agents. Ramon Laureano is the lone starter remaining and will return in center field, though he’ll miss the first 27 games of 2022 to complete the remainder of his 80-game PED suspension. Piscotty is penciled into the right field job at the moment, but after three seasons of injuries and replacement-level play, it is difficult to know what expect from him next year.
Among internal options, Seth Brown and Tony Kemp are the most probable candidates to see time in the corner outfield slots. However, both could also be needed at other positions (Kemp at second base, Brown at first base or DH), thus opening the door for any of Luis Barrera, Skye Bolt, Cody Thomas, or Buddy Reed to earn some outfield playing time. A low-cost veteran could be added to that group, yet this is another decision that could hinge on how much emphasis the Athletics are putting on 2022. If the A’s are taking a full step back from a run at the playoffs, the team might decide to just let the youngsters play and see who emerges as an MLB-capable player.
Assuming Kemp isn’t traded, shortstop prospect Nick Allen‘s development could factor into Kemp’s primary position in the lineup. Allen is expected to make his Major League debut in 2022 and is already more than ready from a defensive perspective, so his longer-term role is Oakland’s shortstop of the future. With Andrus at shortstop for one more year, the A’s could break Allen in as a second baseman, thus freeing up Kemp to see more time in left field.
Jed Lowrie is one of the Oakland free agents who might be a realistic candidate to be re-signed, and thus he could also be part of the infield picture. After two injury-ruined seasons with the Mets, Lowrie returned to the A’s and played in 139 games last season, providing around league-average offense over 512 plate appearances. Heading into his age-38 season, Lowrie may have a tough time competing with younger utility infield types on the free agent market, and the A’s could welcome back a familiar veteran to provide leadership through what might be a transitional year.
James Kaprielian and Cole Irvin could end up being the top two starters in the Oakland rotation depending on what happens with Manaea, Bassitt, and Montas. Since it seems quite likely at least one of that trio will be dealt, the Athletics will need some starters. Daulton Jefferies probably has the inside track on one spot and A.J. Puk another if he can stay healthy, which is a big if considering all of the injuries Puk has already faced in his short career.
Any of Grant Holmes, Brian Howard or Paul Blackburn will be in competition for another starting role, but this is certainly an area where the A’s will have to land some kind of inexpensive veteran depth, just to cover any possible innings. It also isn’t exactly a surprise to say that the Athletics will look to acquire some MLB-ready starting pitching in any trades since every team is always looking for more arms, yet Oakland’s need is particularly strong considering how many of their current starters could be traded.
Chafin declined his half of a mutual option and Jake Diekman’s club option wasn’t exercised, so those two join Sergio Romo and Yusmeiro Petit as prominent A’s relievers now set for free agency. Beane and Forst have traditionally been pretty aggressive in adding to their bullpens over the years, though that strategy might not be optimal in a winter of budget cutbacks (and with the Trevor Rosenthal signing still lingering as the major misfire of last year’s offseason).
The Athletics could at least offer opportunity to any free agent relievers, as the A’s head into 2022 with Lou Trivino penciled in as closer even if he had trouble sticking in the role last year. In the event of a lockout related to collective bargaining talks, the subsequent roster freeze could lead to a flood of relievers hitting the market when (if?) the freeze is lifted just prior to or during Spring Training. A surplus of available relievers could help Oakland score a bargain signing or two — particularly since the A’s could reasonably offer save chances and a spacious home park to any potential targets looking to reestablish value.
If the front office succeeds in landing some intriguing prospects over the winter, A’s fans may feel a bit better about the team’s overall direction by Opening Day. Unfortunately, getting to whatever promising longer-term future awaits will require some more immediate pain, as the Athletics’ “cycle” of roster construction and destruction never stops spinning. With the Astros reinforcing their pennant-winning squad and the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers all looking to make substantial upgrades this offseason, the Athletics’ first goal may be figuring out just how to avoid a last-place finish.
Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres
The Padres went from a veritable playoff lock to a sub-.500 record on the heels of a catastrophic second-half collapse. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller will go back to the drawing board amid greater expectations and even more pressure.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: $329MM through 2034
- Manny Machado, 3B: $210MM through 2028 (Machado can opt out of contract after 2023 season)
- Eric Hosmer, 1B: $59MM through 2025
- Yu Darvish, RHP: $37MM through 2023
- Blake Snell, LHP: $28.5MM through 2023
- Ha-Seong Kim, INF: $23MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $8MM mutual option for 2025)
- Wil Myers, OF: $21MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)
- Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $16MM through 2023
- Jurickson Profar, INF/OF: $15MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2024; Profar can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Mike Clevinger, RHP: $6.5MM through 2022
- Craig Stammen, RHP: $4MM through 2022
- Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2022
- 2022 commitments: $140.5MM
- Total long-term commitments: $752MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Adam Frazier – $7.2MM
- Matt Strahm – $2.1MM
- Joe Musgrove – $8.9MM
- Dinelson Lamet – $4.6MM
- Emilio Pagan – $2.3MM
- Victor Caratini – $2.1MM
- Jose Castillo – $700K
- Tim Hill – $1.4MM
- Trey Wingenter – $600K
- Austin Adams – $1.0MM
- Chris Paddack – $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Strahm, Castillo, Wingenter
Option Decisions
- Exercised $4MM club option on RHP Craig Stammen
- Exercised $3MM club option on RHP Pierce Johnson
- Declined $4MM club option on OF Jake Marisnick
- Declined $800K club option on RHP Keone Kela (Kela had Tommy John surgery in late May)
- RHP Mark Melancon declined $5MM mutual option (received $1MM buyout)
Free Agents
- Daniel Hudson, Mark Melancon, Jake Marisnick, Keone Kela, Ross Detwiler, Vince Velasquez, Tommy Pham
On the day of the 2021 trade deadline, the Padres were 61-45 — still third place in a dominant NL West division but only five games out of first and also holding a commanding five-and-a-half-game lead on the NL’s second Wild Card spot. A postseason berth seemed overwhelmingly likely. The Friars appeared poised for another aggressive deadline, reportedly making a push to acquire Max Scherzer from the Nationals while also exploring trades to shed Eric Hosmer’s contract and improve an inconsistent offense.
Instead, the division-rival Dodgers won the Scherzer bidding, and no deals involving Hosmer materialized. The Padres acquired second baseman/outfielder Adam Frazier despite having various options at both positions, and their other big deadline takeaway was reliever Daniel Hudson. That was hardly a pair of inconsequential acquisitions at the time, but Monday morning quarterbacking was in full effect as the Padres almost immediately performed a swan dive in the Wild Card standings. San Diego astonishingly went 18-38 to close out the season — not only losing a playoff spot but falling below .500 on the year.
Amid that catastrophic fall from grace were reports of tensions in the clubhouse. Second-year manager Jayce Tingler reportedly lost the locker room late in the year, and public-facing spats involving star players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado only fanned the flames on that narrative.
It came as little surprise, then, to see the offseason begin with Tingler’s ousting. (He’s since joined the Twins as their new bench coach.) What was a surprise — to put things mildly — was the sudden hiring of longtime Athletics manager Bob Melvin, who agreed to a three-year deal to take the reins in San Diego. Melvin was under contract with the A’s through the 2022 season, but a cost-cutting A’s club let him interview and sign with the Padres on a reported three-year, $12MM contract — asking for no compensation in return.
It was a legitimate shocker and widely viewed as something of a coup for the Friars. While their 2021 season ended in disaster, the 2021-22 offseason kicked off on an immensely positive note. Those good feelings will only extend so long, however, and Preller & Co. must now look for ways to improve a roster that faceplanted in the season’s second half.
The first question, quite likely, is simply one of where to begin. The Padres have a remarkable 23 players either on guaranteed contracts or eligible for arbitration, presenting them with a nearly full active roster before even making a move. They’ll surely make some subtractions via non-tender and trade in the coming days, and it stands to reason that the team will again revisit some of those deadline-season trade endeavors.
The reported effort to move Hosmer, for instance, was surely fueled by a desire to improve upon his pedestrian offensive performance but was also borne out of a desire to curb a payroll that has increasingly soared to previously unseen levels in San Diego. Both Hosmer and Wil Myers are slightly above-average hitters with salaries north of $20MM on the books in 2022. The urgency to move Hosmer’s deal is only heightened by the fact that he’d gain 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, past five with the same team) at the end of the 2022 season — which would give him full veto power over any trade.
The Padres’ 2022 payroll is already projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez at a staggering $192MM — with nearly $209MM of luxury-tax considerations. That $192MM mark is already nearly $20MM higher than the prior franchise-record. While ownership may be comfortable taking the overall budget to new heights — it’s doubtful they’d have signed Tatis and Machado to those mega-deals were that not the case — the budget surely isn’t limitless. And considering the fact that this Padres club ranked 14th in each of total runs scored, combined wRC+, ERA and FIP, it’s obvious that improvements are needed on both ends of the roster.
Looking for creative ways to shed the contracts of Hosmer or Myers figure to again be revisited this winter, and the Padres have no shortage of square pegs currently being asked to fill round holes. Acquiring Adam Frazier was something of a curious fit in the first place, given the presence of Machado, Tatis and All-Star second baseman Jake Cronenworth, but Frazier’s projected $7.2MM salary now looks even more questionable on the Padres’ roster. He’s obviously a fine player based on his track record in Pittsburgh, but perhaps the lack of a defined role in San Diego didn’t agree with him.
That same logic, to some extent, applies to infielder Ha-Seong Kim. The Padres signed the former KBO superstar to a four-year deal despite lacking obvious infield playing time for him, and Kim struggled to find his footing as he adjusted to big league pitching with inconsistent playing time across multiple positions. Kim was viewed as the equivalent of an MLB-ready, top 100 prospect at the time of his signing but hit just .202/.270/.352 while averaging fewer than three plate appearances over his 117 games.
Between Kim, Frazier and Jurickson Profar, whose questionable three-year deal only looks even more dubious now, the Padres are set to pay upwards of $20MM to a trio of players who don’t even have a defined spot in the everyday lineup. Trading any of the three should be firmly on the table, as should the easier-said-than-done possibility of finally finding a partner in a Hosmer or Myers trade. From a purely speculative standpoint, the money remaining on the Hosmer and Aaron Hicks contracts are quite similar, and Hosmer’s contact-oriented lefty bat could be of some appeal to the Yankees if they don’t re-sign Anthony Rizzo.
If the Padres ultimately are able to shed some of the currently questionable fits for their lineup, they’ll look for ways to quickly reallocate any dollars saved and lineup spots that were vacated. With Tommy Pham reaching free agency and Myers standing as a viable trade candidate, a corner outfielder could be a sensible upgrade. The aforementioned Frazier can certainly handle left field, but alternatives on the market include the likes of Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Avisail Garcia and NPB superstar Seiya Suzuki. At first base, the open market has Rizzo, while the trade market will include Matt Olson, Luke Voit and others.
If the designated hitter is indeed added to the National League, as is widely expected, it’s likely Preller will look to old friend Nelson Cruz. Preller has shown a clear affinity for former Rangers players in past iterations of the Padres’ roster, and he even explored the possibility of acquiring Cruz at the trade deadline and playing him at first base. The addition of a DH would also make it easier for San Diego (or any other NL club) to put forth a long-term offer for either of Castellanos or Schwarber, who boast imposing bats but come with sub-par defensive grades.
On the pitching side of things, the Padres have a pretty strong group on paper. The combination of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack looks sound. The trio of MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon (who had Tommy John surgery in May) and Ryan Weathers makes for an enticing and upside-laden series of depth options.
That said, the starting rotation was expected to be a strength in 2021 but turned into a glaring liability. Darvish melted down the stretch after a strong first several months, while the opposite was true of Snell. Lamet’s ongoing injury woes limited his innings and placed a large slate of red flags on him for the 2022 season. Clevinger, like Morejon, is coming back from Tommy John surgery and as we know, that’s hardly a lock. (Just look at Noah Syndergaard‘s 2021 season.) Paddack, meanwhile, struggled throughout the season and has yet to recapture his brilliant rookie form. Weathers was hit hard after a promising start, and most confounding of all, Gore barely pitched in the minors — instead spending much of the season working through mechanical issues at the Padres’ Arizona facility.
By late in the season, the Padres were giving starts to reclamation projects like Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez as they clung to faint postseason hopes. The end result was a rotation that finished 29th in the Majors in innings pitched (741 1/3) and 18th in ERA (4.54).
Further compounding matters for the Friars is that the rotation is a rather expensive group. Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Clevinger, Paddack and Lamet will earn somewhere in the vicinity of $55MM combined, but only Musgrove showed any real consistency in 2021. San Diego will hope that swapping out former pitching coach Larry Rothschild — who was fired in August — for Ruben Niebla will help to improve the results. That said, if the Padres are again looking for ways to shake up the roster, it’s at least feasible that one of Darvish or Snell could be moved as a means of freeing up payroll and opening a spot for a different acquisition.
The uncertainty surrounding several promising young arms — Weathers, Gore, Morejon, and Lamet — also raises the possibility of moving anyone from that group in a trade of note. Preller is routinely involved in all of the big names on the market, and it’s easy to imagine Oakland’s Olson and perhaps one of their available starters piquing the Padres’ interest. A shot at a high-ceiling wild card like Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, or perhaps an aggressive pursuit of a Cincinnati starter like Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo could seemingly be in the cards, too. It’s easy to write off the Padres as a team that doesn’t definitively “need” another starter, but Preller showed last year in acquiring Darvish, Snell and Musgrove that he’s unafraid to stockpile pieces in areas where the big league roster does not have a dire need. (See also: the signing of Kim and acquisition of Frazier.)
As far as relief pitching is concerned, the Padres generally appear to have a strong group, but that shouldn’t squarely rule them out from making some notable additions. Mark Melancon led baseball in saves this past season and is now a free agent. He came to the Padres on a bargain deal after his market failed to materialize last winter, so it’s unlikely he’d be re-signed at a premium rate. Waiting out the market and pouncing on a veteran arm again this offseason makes sense, though, particularly with standout southpaw Drew Pomeranz on the mend from a torn flexor tendon.
As is the case in the rotation and the lineup, however, the Padres can’t be ruled out if a big-name reliever becomes available via trade. Don’t be surprised to see them linked to Josh Hader or Craig Kimbrel in the weeks and months to come.
More than any team in Major League Baseball, the Padres have proven themselves difficult to predict. Preller’s “Rock Star GM” moniker, given to him by Matt Kemp after a dizzying flurry of transactions in his first offseason on the job, is often used in humorous fashion — but it’s also rooted in some truth. Preller has shown a repeated affinity to grab headlines with fearless trades, free-agent signings and extensions alike, often moving players who seemed unattainable or acquiring players despite a lack of obvious need. He is quite arguably the sport’s most aggressive baseball operations leader, and given the mounting expectations in San Diego and a shocking freefall from 2021 playoff contention, there’s more pressure than ever to find the right pieces.
Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners closed the book on what turned out to be a roughly two-year rebuild with a 90-win season that saw them fight for a Wild Card berth up until the final series of the season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will add aggressively this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Marco Gonzales, LHP: $24MM through 2024 (contract includes $15MM club option for 2025, with no buyout)
- Evan White, 1B: $21.4MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; contract also includes 2027-28 club options)
- Ken Giles, RHP: $5.5MM through 2022 (includes $500K buyout of $9.5MM club option for 2023)
- Chris Flexen, RHP: $2.75MM through 2022 (contract includes $4MM* club option for 2023)
- Total 2022 commitment: $14.65MM
- Total long-term commitments: $53.65MM
*=Flexen’s option price doubles to $8MM with 300 total innings from 2021-22; he pitched 179 2/3 innings in 2021.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Mitch Haniger – $8.5MM
- Drew Steckenrider – $2.1MM
- Tom Murphy – $1.7MM
- J.P. Crawford – $5.0MM
- Diego Castillo – $2.6MM
- Paul Sewald – $1.8MM
- Casey Sadler – $1.3MM
- Dylan Moore – $1.6MM
- Luis Torrens – $1.6MM
- Non-tender candidate: Moore
Option Decisions
- Declined $20MM option on 3B Kyle Seager in favor of $2MM buyout
- Declined four-year, $66MM option on LHP Yusei Kikuchi; Kikuchi declined $13MM player option to become free agent
Free Agents
- Kyle Seager, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, Joe Smith, James Paxton, Sean Doolittle, Hector Santiago, Shed Long Jr.*, Jake Bauers, Ryan Weber*, Marcus Wilson* (*=outrighted and elected free agency after season ended)
Over the past three years, the Mariners have traded James Paxton, Omar Narvaez, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Kendall Graveman with an eye toward the future. This year’s deadline trade sending Graveman to the division-rival Astros in exchange for five years of control over Abraham Toro could go down as the final forward-looking, “big picture” trade of a veteran for young talent.
After all, the Mariners were in playoff contention until the very end of the year. They fell just shy of their first postseason appearance in two decades — the longest drought in Major League Baseball — but the performance of the young core acquired by Dipoto & Co. sets the stage for an active offseason.
One change that appears certain lies at third base. Kyle Seager, the heart and soul of this Mariners club for many years, fought back tears when manager Scott Servais pulled him from the ninth inning of Seattle’s final game. In one of the more emotional moments of the year throughout all of MLB (video link), the home fans chanted Seager’s name as the dugout emptied and he hugged and bid farewell to the only team he’s known. Seager was given the third base bag and took a curtain call clutching it over his head as he thanked a raucous fan base.
It’s almost symbolic, in a bittersweet way for fans, that this turning of the page coincides with the face of the Mariners for the past several seasons likely leaving. Seager’s $20MM option was declined at season’s end, and while a reunion can’t be expressly ruled out, the scene at T-Mobile Park on Oct. 3 certainly had the feel of a goodbye.
There’s no “replacing” a player this revered and beloved in the clubhouse — shortstop J.P. Crawford could scarcely speak when praising Seager after that final game — but Seager’s likely departure leaves an opening in the lineup. The aforementioned Toro could step into an everyday role in that spot but can also play second. Similarly, Ty France has experience at third base but is a better defender at first or second base.
Given how little the Mariners have on the books in 2022, there’s really no free agent who should be off limits. Seattle has only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts, and the arbitration class should only bump that number to around $40MM. This is the same ownership group that averaged an Opening Day payroll of $152.1MM from 2017-19.
Dipoto has already said this winter that he’ll prioritize “adaptable” free agents — those who are comfortable moving around if need be. He name-checked both Marcus Semien and Javier Baez when making those comments, instantly making each a potential fit. Kris Bryant is another such option — a possible everyday third baseman who could fill in as needed across the diamond or at any of the three outfield spots. Old friend Chris Taylor, meanwhile, has built a career on being “adaptable.”
What’s become clear is that there’s little interest in displacing Crawford at shortstop. The 26-year-old (27 in January) won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has cemented himself as a quality defender with an improving bat (.273/.338/.376 in 2021). Dipoto has already informed Crawford that the Mariners see him as the everyday shortstop. Perhaps Crawford would be amenable to sliding elsewhere if the Mariners got serious in a pursuit of Carlos Correa, but it seems far likelier they’ll make a run at players in the Bryant/Semien/Baez/Taylor tiers. Trevor Story is also in that “second” tier of free-agent shortstops and could feasibly improve his market by showing an openness to second base.
While Crawford, France and Toro each have 2022 spots locked down, Evan White’s future is less certain. The 25-year-old was the No. 17 pick in 2017 and inked a six-year, $24MM contract with three club options before making his MLB debut. So far, he’s struggled to a .165/.235/.308 slash in the Majors. It’s only 304 plate appearances, however, and White was surely hampered by a 2021 hip injury that required surgery. There’s still room for him to be a part of the future — he’s earning just $1.4MM in 2022 — but it’s tough to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup in a win-now season, especially with France’s breakout at first.
The Mariners don’t have a set DH and could use that spot as an opportunity to add even more offense — a Nelson Cruz reunion would be well-received by fans, for instance — but there’s no indication that’s a priority. In fact, keeping the DH spot relatively free may be of particular importance as the team hopes for better health from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.
A career .258/.343/.450 hitter (121 wRC+) through his first 464 MLB plate appearances, Lewis was limited to 36 games this year after undergoing surgery to repair a right meniscus tear. It’s not the first time he’s encountered right knee troubles; Lewis suffered a dual meniscus tear and ACL tear in that same knee in 2016. Setting aside some occasional DH reps for him could have obvious benefits.
Beyond Lewis, the M’s have two of the game’s most highly touted young outfielders in Jarred Kelenic and the yet-to-debut Julio Rodriguez. Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors but improved with a .233/.304/.455 line following the trade deadline and a .248/.331/.524 showing over his final month. Rodriguez, meanwhile, posted a ludicrous .347/.441/.560 line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s considered a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and could debut in early 2022.
Even after the trio of Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez, the Mariners are deep. Taylor Trammell had his own struggles during his 2021 debut, but he’s another now-former Top 100 prospect who posted solid numbers in Triple-A (.263/.362/.456) and only recently turned 24. Jake Fraley didn’t hit for average but was an OBP machine who walked in more than 17% of his plate appearances. And, of course, veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger returned from a harrowing sequence of fluke injuries to crush a career-high 39 home runs.
Haniger’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for years now, and there will surely be fans and pundits who speculate on his availability once again now that he’s a year from free agency. Howver, it’d be difficult to move him when he’s projected for a palatable $8.5MM salary and was a key middle-of-the-lineup presence in 2021. Seattle’s aim this winter is to deepen the lineup, and a trade of Haniger would run counter to that thinking. Dipoto is an open-minded baseball ops leader and could at least listen to offers, but a Haniger extension seems more prudent to explore than a possible trade.
Behind the plate, the M’s have a trio of options. Tom Murphy gives them a veteran who has had some big league success, while either Cal Raleigh or Luis Torrens could be a long-term solution. That depth could draw the interest of other clubs in need of catching help, with the Marlins standing out as a team who could entice the Mariners with some starting pitching.
The rotation will be a focus for Seattle this winter. Marco Gonzales shook off a terrible April, returning from a five-week IL stint to log a 3.60 ERA in his final 115 frames. Last winter’s low-cost dice roll on KBO breakout Chris Flexen was an overwhelming success, as Flexen turned in a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings. Top prospect Logan Gilbert had a rough patch in the middle of the season but was dominant down the stretch, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his final six starts. With a 4.68 ERA overall and terrific strikeout and walk rates, he earned a spot in 2022.
After that trio, there’s not as much certainty. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn were notable acquisitions during the rebuild but might be looking at bullpen roles in the future, given their struggles and a slate of impressive prospects yet to come. First-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are still on the rise, and 2019 second-rounder Brandon Williamson has only seen his stock soar since the draft. Matt Brash dominated in the minors and has likely already made the Padres regret parting with him in a trade to acquire Taylor Williams.
Even with all those prospects nearing the big leagues, the Mariners’ win-now mantra will push them to bring in some established veterans. With so much payroll space, there’s no reason to think the Mariners couldn’t ink one of the top pitchers on the market even after signing a free-agent bat. However, the safer bet may be to add some solid mid-rotation arms as opposed to the type of $100MM+ deals that could be commanded by Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.
The market has plenty of options, including Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Steven Matz. If the Mariners are open to some risk, Carlos Rodon was one of the game’s best starters when healthy this season but ended the year with some concerning shoulder troubles. A team in Seattle’s spot could view Rodon’s late injury flags as a means of buying a possible No. 1 starter at a discount. The downside is obvious with a pitcher who managed just 36 innings in the final 10 weeks of the season and saw a rapid drop in his fastball velocity, but with so many prospects providing depth, perhaps the Mariners can take that chance.
This is the first time under Dipoto that the Mariners are likely to be more active in free agency than in trades, but there’s probably a limit to how much they’ll spend on the open market. With the need for a big bat and at least one — if not two — rotation spots open, the Mariners will surely explore that route. By now, it’s well known that names like Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Merrill Kelly and others could be available on the trade market.
That said, fans of other clubs dreaming up scenarios to acquire the likes of Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Kirby, Hancock and other Mariners top prospects may want to pump the brakes. Dipoto said at the GM Meetings last week that there’s “no scenario” where he’ll move the very top prospects in his organization (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). Seattle has Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system though, so there’s plenty of value even in the middle tiers that could be used in trades. It’s also plausible that a controllable player without a clear path to playing time (e.g. Trammell, Fraley) could be part of a package for immediate help — be it in the lineup, the rotation or the bullpen.
Of course, the Mariners’ need for relief pitching is less acute, especially if Sheffield and Dunn join this mix. Breakout righty Paul Sewald went from a struggling Mets depth piece to a powerhouse closing option who fanned nearly 40% of his 2021 opponents. The M’s struck gold on a minor league deal for Drew Steckenrider and picked up a big-time righty from the Rays at the deadline in Diego Castillo. Former All-Star Ken Giles will join that trio in 2022 when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Casey Sadler won’t repeat his ridiculous 0.67 ERA but has locked a spot down. Seattle also received promising showings from Erik Swanson and Yohan Ramirez, and they’ll have a full season of Andres Munoz and his triple-digit heater now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery.
If there’s one area the Mariners are lacking, it’s a lefty. A pursuit of Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup seems sensible, and this is another area where a trade might make sense. The M’s could also look at Sheffield here and/or give Anthony Misiewicz a bigger look. Misiewicz’s 4.61 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but he had better marks from metrics like FIP and SIERA.
However the Mariners choose to attack the offseason, it’s unlikely to look like any we’ve previously seen since Dipoto took the reins in Seattle. He’s previously preferred to operate primarily on the trade market, but the Mariners have gotten to that sweet spot where their squeaky clean payroll outlook overlaps with an elite farm that is teeming with MLB-ready talent. The nexus of those two enviable characteristics should open the door for considerable spending this winter and perhaps another big swing on the trade front. The Mariners are veritable locks to add at least one impact bat (likely in the infield) and figure to be active in bolstering the rotation.
With the Athletics going into an obvious rebuild, the Rangers still working to emerge from their own building phase and the Astros perhaps bidding farewell to free agent Carlos Correa, the Mariners’ time is now. They know it, and so does the rest of the industry. It’s going to be a fun offseason for Seattle fans.
Looking For A Match In A Matt Chapman Trade
The tea leaves in Oakland aren’t painting a pretty picture of what is to come. A few weeks ago, they let manager Bob Melvin depart and join the Padres, seemingly just to save themselves a few million in salary. Then they declined a $4MM option on Jake Diekman, a fair enough price for a solid lefty reliever. Then there were the recent comments of general manager David Forst, who said that they are willing to listen to trade offers for any of their players. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Everything seems to be pointing towards a big sell-off in Oakland, with their arbitration-eligible players likely to be exchanged for younger and cheaper alternatives.
As the front office is doing all of that listening, they are likely to hear a lot about Matt Chapman. The third baseman, who turns 29 in April, can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. The arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz point to Chapman’s 2022 salary being in the $9.5MM range, with him then being due another raise for 2023, before being eligible for free agency. That’s not prohibitively expensive for a lot of teams, but for the Athletics, that’s a decent chunk of their budget. They’re currently projected for a 2022 payroll over $85MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number has only been above $90MM once, which was 2019, before the pandemic wiped out almost two thirds of a season and left teams playing in front of empty stadiums for the remainder. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Hypothetically speaking, if they want to get that number down around $65MM, which was their opening day figure in 2018, a contract around $10MM would represent about 15% of the total outlay.
The timing of trading Chapman puts the Oakland brass in a difficult position, as he’s coming off a down year, relative to his own lofty standards. From his debut in June of 2017 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 385 games, hitting 74 home runs and slashing .257/.341/.500. His strikeout rate of 23.9% was a tad higher than league average, but so was his 10.1% walk rate. All that amounted to a wRC+ of 127 that, combined with his elite defense, added up to 15.6 fWAR. However, 2020 saw him fall from those incredible heights. His batting average dropped, his strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased and then his season was ended prematurely by hip surgery. In 2021, the good news was that he was healthy enough after the surgery to play 151 games and provide excellent defense, winning his third Gold Glove award. But the offense didn’t fully come back. His walk rate shot up to 12.9%, but his strikeout rate was a whopping 32.5%. He did hit 27 homers, but his overall line of .210/.314/.403 was well below his previous level, and amounted to a wRC+ of 101, just a hair above league average. It seems absurd to refer to 3.4 fWAR as a “down year”, but it is for Chapman, as that’s barely half of the 6.7 and 6.1 he was worth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
For the Oakland front office, that puts them at a crossroads. One path is to hold onto him and hope for a return to his prior form and increase in his trade value. They could accomplish their salary-shedding goals by trading other players, such as Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, who are all projected to earn between $8.8MM and $12MM. Olson’s is coming off his best season, while Manaea and Bassitt are both free agents after 2022. However, holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.
If they do decide to part with Chapman, or any other player, they seem likely to target MLB-ready pieces. As noted by Steve Adams, from the piece linked in the first paragraph, the club’s various resets usually don’t last very long because this has been their method. The team has only had a losing record eight times in the 24 seasons of the Billy Beane era, and never for more than three in a row. With that in mind, let’s consider some potential trading partners.
Mariners: There’s a third base vacancy in Seattle for the first time a long time, as Kyle Seager is now a free agent. Abraham Toro is pencilled in there for now, but he’s also capable of moving to second base and bumping Dylan Moore into a bench/utility role, making Chapman an easy fit. The club is expected to be aggressive this offseason, as they look to build on a strong 2021 campaign. The Athletics are probably loath to send Chapman to a division rival, but they may also be interested in one of Seattle’s many young and cheap outfielders. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger in one spot, with the other two being open for Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez and Zach DeLoach. The Athletics have just seen Mark Canha and Starling Marte head into free agency and are unlikely to outbid other teams in order to bring them back. Ramon Laureano will still be serving his suspension for the first 27 games of the 2022 season, leaving Oakland with outfield options such as Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera.
Marlins: Miami has a tremendous pitching surplus and is looking to use it to improve their offense, particularly at catcher and in the outfield. However, third base is a bit of a question mark for them as well. Brian Anderson is penciled in there now, but only got into 67 games in 2021 due to various injuries. Even if he is healthy, he’s capable of playing the outfield, meaning that adding Chapman could indirectly be the outfield addition they seek. With the expected addition of the DH in the NL, it would also be easy to have them both in the lineup. The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back.
Blue Jays: Much like the Marlins, the Jays also saw their third baseman miss a lot of time due to injury. Cavan Biggio was an awkward fit at third anyway, as he had primarily been a second baseman prior to this year and moved to accommodate the addition of Marcus Semien. If Chapman were at third, Biggio could slide back to the keystone, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. filling out the rest of the infield. Chapman was recently rumored to be a target of the Jays. The Jays have a catching surplus, but that may not interest Oakland with Sean Murphy already on hand. But perhaps they would be interested in Nate Pearson, who has ace potential but has struggled with injuries recently, or infield prospect Jordan Groshans, who spent all of 2021 at Double-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors next year.
Yankees: The Yankee infield is a bit of musical chairs at the moment, with the team seemingly giving up on Gleyber Torres as a shortstop. The infield right now, on paper, would be Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu at third, Gio Urshela at shortstop and Luke Voit at first. Voit doesn’t seem to have a job locked down, as the club has looked into Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson, but they could also acquire Chapman and move LeMahieu over to first. The Yankees are also looking into top free agent shortstops, which could make prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza into trade chips that would interest the Athletics. Or perhaps Oakland would be interested in young and controllable arms, such as Michael King, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia or Luis Medina.
Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.
Phillies: A year ago, it seemed like the third base job in Philadelphia was locked down for years to come, as Alec Bohm had a breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He hit a tremendous .338/.400/.481 for a wRC+ of 138. However, seemingly everything went wrong in 2021, as he dropped to .247/.305/.342 for a wRC+ of 75 and even got optioned to the minors for over a month. With the Athletics taking a step back, they could give Bohm some playing time and see if he can recapture that prior form. However, the Phillies have bigger priorities in the outfield and bullpen, which may mean that they hang on to him.
Rockies: In the first season of the post-Arenado era, Ryan McMahon got most of the playing time at the hot corner, who paired average-ish offense with excellent defense. But he’s also capable of playing second base, with Brendan Rodgers then moving to shortstop to replace Trevor Story, who is now a free agent. Chapman’s power bat moving to the high-altitude environment of Coors Field is tantalizing to imagine, and could potentially make infield prospects like Colton Welker and Elehuris Montero expendable.
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
The likely departure of Trevor Story will only hurt a team that has already struggled to generate offense, so landing some hitters who can produce both at home and on the road is the first order of business for Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Antonio Senzatela, SP: $50.5MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)
- German Marquez, SP: $28.5MM through 2023 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2024)
- C.J. Cron, 1B: $14.5MM through 2023
- Scott Oberg, RP: $7MM through 2022 ($8MM club option for 2023)
Other Financial Commitments
- $34,570,500 owed to the Cardinals through 2026 as part of the Nolan Arenado trade
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Daniel Bard – $4.8MM
- Elias Diaz – $2.6MM
- Carlos Estevez – $3.2MM
- Kyle Freeland – $7.0MM
- Robert Stephenson – $1.1MM
- Raimel Tapia – $3.9MM
- Ryan McMahon – $5.5MM
- Garrett Hampson – $1.8MM
- Tyler Kinley – $1.0MM
- Peter Lambert – $600K
- Non-tender candidates: Hampson, Kinley
Option Decisions
- Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM player option for 2022 (exercised; Blackmon also has a $10MM player option for 2023, and has already said he will exercise that option as well)
- Ian Desmond, IF/OF: $15MM club option for 2022 (declined, Desmond received $2MM buyout)
Free Agents
- Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Jhoulys Chacin, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Chris Owings, Josh Fuentes, Yency Almonte, Rio Ruiz, Jairo Diaz
When Jeff Bridich stepped down from the general manager job back in April, the Rockies announced they would look for a new head of baseball operations after the season, with an interim GM filling the role for the remainder of the 2021 campaign. As it happened, the Rox made their choice early, deciding to elevate interim GM and longtime front office employee Bill Schmidt into the full-time job during the final weekend of the regular season. As team president/COO Greg Feasel put it, Schmidt impressed upper management to the point that “he didn’t give us a choice…I mean, how many times do you need to be hit over the head with a bat? And he was the right guy for us at the right time.”
Given how the Rockies often promote from within and place such a large premium on continuity within the organization, Schmidt’s official hiring wasn’t a surprise. However, for Colorado fans frustrated by their team’s lack of overall success, Rockies owner Dick Monfort’s track record for loyalty is a double-edged sword that seems to prevent new perspectives and new strategies from filtering into the front office.
In fairness to Schmidt, he is a veteran baseball man with his own ideas, so it is maybe too easy to just presume that things will be business as usual at Coors Field. And, having their GM position decided early did allow the Rockies to get a quick jump on some notable offseason business — inking Antonio Senzatela to a five-year contract extension, and then keeping C.J. Cron off the free agent market by signing the first baseman to a new two-year, $14.5MM deal.
Cron was the more pressing concern since he was just weeks away from the open market, but it isn’t all that surprising he’d welcome staying in one place after changing teams in each of the last four offseasons. Playing in Denver certainly seemed to agree with Cron, who hit .281/.375/.530 with 28 home runs over 547 plate appearances, fueled by big home/road splits (1.073 OPS at Coors Field, .734 OPS in away games).
Cron certainly did enough to merit that extension, and keeping him in the fold helps reinforce Colorado’s lineup. That said, Cron’s performance is endemic of the 2021 season as a whole for Rockies hitters, who batted a league-worst .217/.291/.352 (73 wRC+) on the road. Colorado was only 26-54 in away games, and even at home, the Rockies’ cumulative .280/.341/.475 slash line translated to only a 90 wRC+.
It has now been several years since the Rox have had a productive offense both at home and on the road. The team’s inability to find consistent hitting has been underscored by the fact that the rotation has been perhaps as stable recently as at any point in the franchise’s history. On the rare occasions when everything is clicking, it is perhaps understandable why Monfort and Schmidt have seemed so insistent that this team isn’t as far away from contention as it seems. In practice, however, the Rockies have had three straight losing seasons, a flawed roster, a thin minor league system, and many needs to address if they’re going to make any noise in a very competitive NL West.
Let’s begin with the rotation, as German Marquez is the ace of a staff that will return Senzatela, Austin Gomber, and Kyle Freeland. This quartet was collectively decent if unspectacular in 2021. Senzatela’s extension now locks him in with Marquez (controlled through 2024 via his own extension) and Gomber (controlled through 2025 via arbitration) as long-term pieces for Colorado, even if guaranteeing $50.5MM to Senzatela seemed a little surprising since the righty has had some ups-and-downs over his five MLB seasons.
Extending a pitcher who has had some success at Coors Field does seem like a logical move for the Rockies, considering their difficulties in bringing any premium free agent arms to the thin air. Barring a big and unlikely overpay, the Rox will be looking to add starting depth through minor league signings and veterans perhaps looking for a bounce-back year. In-house starting options include Peter Lambert back from Tommy John surgery, rookie Ryan Feltner, and top pitching prospect Ryan Rolison should make his MLB debut in 2022, though none of that group can be counted on to reliably fill a rotation spot just yet.
Trading for a veteran hurler who can eat innings and keep the ball on the ground would be a good idea, and this is one area where Schmidt can easily distinguish himself. Bridich didn’t make many trades over his six-plus years as the GM, and there weren’t a lot of clear wins in that limited number (the Marquez/Jake McGee deal notwithstanding).
Of course, re-signing Jon Gray would also address that rotation need, though it remains to be seen if a reunion is feasible now that Gray has reached free agency. The Rockies resisted dealing Gray at the trade deadline because they were so intent on keeping him, and then made an extension offer in the area of $35-$40MM over three years. This late-season offer was seemingly the only deal officially presented to Gray and his representatives, and when it was rejected, the Rockies then didn’t issue Gray a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. The right-hander now doesn’t have any draft pick compensation attached to his services, making him an even more attractive option for other teams in need of rotation help.
It all adds up to a curious sequence of events, as now Colorado risks losing Gray for nothing. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reported that Gray “likely would have accepted” the QO, so the Rockies would’ve been paying Gray roughly $5MM more in average annual value than they were comfortable with, given the parameters of their extension offer. Yet, would this have really been that unpalatable a situation, considering how seriously the club seemed to want to retain Gray? Then again, perhaps even that intent could be called into question if the Rox did make Gray just that one offer, unless the Rockies simply put way too much faith in Gray accepting that three-year extension.
Paying an extra $5MM than expected for Gray would’ve had an impact on Colorado’s payroll availability, but Feasel has stated that the team plans to slowly increase its spending over the next two years. With roughly $103MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to the 2022 payroll, Feasel said the Rox plan to be back in the $150MM range by 2023, which was what the club was spending in 2018-19 before the pandemic. That $47MM spending bump isn’t small, though it remains to be seen if the majority of that increase may happen next winter instead of over the coming few months, particularly since the collective bargaining agreement talks could significantly alter baseball’s business rules going forward.
It could also be that spending extra money on a starting pitcher didn’t fit the team’s greatest needs, as Schmidt has said that improving the bullpen and adding power to the lineup are the top priorities. On the relief pitching front, don’t expect to see any expensive names added, as the Rockies have many of the same issues in attracting relievers as they do in attracting prominent starters (plus, the McGee/Wade Davis/Bryan Shaw contracts undoubtedly still linger in the front office’s memory).
Carlos Estevez enters the offseason as the closer, with Lucas Gilbreath and Robert Stephenson doing the most in 2021 to lay claims on setup roles or even occasional save opportunities. Daniel Bard’s projected $4.8MM arbitration number is boosted by the saves he did accumulate before losing the closer’s job, but Bard pitched decently well outside the ninth inning and will likely be retained. Tyler Kinley might be a non-tender candidate, but he isn’t expensive and offers some durability. Along those same lines, Jhoulys Chacin ate some innings and posted decent numbers in his return to Colorado as a reliever, so the Rox could look to re-sign the veteran. Since Gilbreath is the only left-hander among any of these bullpen names mentioned, the Rockies will probably target a southpaw or two.
This brings us to the position player mix, and the big gap that exists at shortstop since Trevor Story will be playing elsewhere in 2022. Story is another of the many pending free agents the Rockies chose to keep at their quiet trade deadline, as Schmidt stated that rival teams didn’t present any offers more attractive than the compensatory draft pick Colorado will receive via the qualifying offer when Story signs with a new team.
The infield vacancy does look like it will be at shortstop, as while Brendan Rodgers has played plenty of shortstop in the minors, the expectation is that the Rockies will keep him at second base. Rodgers’ first full MLB season was pretty successful, as he hit .284/.328/.470 with 15 homers over 415 PA after a hamstring strain delayed his season debut until May 21. The former third overall pick now looks like a player to be counted on for regular work going forward, giving Colorado one building block in place.
In fact, the Rockies’ infield mix is pretty settled apart from shortstop. Cron is at first base, Rodgers at second, Ryan McMahon is at third base, and Elias Diaz is lined up for regular catching duties with Dom Nunez as either the backup or as a platoon partner if his hitting improves. It isn’t a bad group on paper, yet they were only truly dangerous at Coors Field — Rodgers was the only regular who really hit well in away games, though he countered those splits with subpar production at home.
Ezequiel Tovar looks on pace to be Colorado’s shortstop of the future, though since he’s only 20 years old and hasn’t even played Double-A ball, he isn’t a realistic option until 2023 at the earliest. If the Rockies have enough confidence in Tovar’s bat to project him as an everyday player, they might only be looking for a short-term shortstop addition to serve as a bridge for the next year or two. This could put the Rox in line for a relatively inexpensive veteran free agent in the Andrelton Simmons/Freddy Galvis tier, or a utilityman like Leury Garcia or Marwin Gonzalez could help at shortstop and at other positions. Keeping with the utility theme, re-signing Chris Owings would also seem like a realistic option, even if Owings hasn’t played much shortstop in the last few years.
If the Rockies are going to add some offensive pop and are willing to spend some money to do it, the outfield is the obvious target area. Longtime Rockie Charlie Blackmon exercised his player option and looks to have one of the corner spots (probably right field) accounted for the next two years, leaving two slots open to a collection of players that includes Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Yonathan Daza, and Ryan Vilade. This group isn’t bereft of talent or potential, but there also isn’t anyone there who would or should preclude the Rox from adding a proven veteran slugger, particularly if the National League adds the DH next year.
Starling Marte is the clear choice as the top center fielder on the market, though a versatile player like Chris Taylor could handle center field, shortstop, and several other spots around the diamond. Taylor, for what it’s worth, has consistently torched the Rockies and hit well at Coors Field as a visiting player.
Signing Taylor would cost the Rox a compensatory draft pick, however, as would other big-hitting QO free agent outfielders like Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto. This could be a sacrifice Colorado is willing to make, figuring that the Story compensatory pick will make up for it, but it probably seems likelier that the Rockies will first look to non-QO outfielders like Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, or Mark Canha.
The list of targets obviously hinges on what exactly the Rockies are willing to spend, and of course, it also takes two to tango in free agent signings. The names at the top of the outfield market have flexibility in choosing their next team, and unless Colorado strongly outbids the other suitors, would their top choice be a Rockies team that doesn’t seem like an obvious contender in 2022 (or even 2023)? Also, the “Coors Field Effect” may turn off hitters as much as pitchers, given how much recent evidence exists that playing in Denver may mess up a hitter’s production from one ballpark to the next.
This same factor also influences the trade market. As mentioned earlier, Bridich didn’t make many trades as Colorado’s general manager, but that could partially stem from the difficulty in properly evaluating players who spend half their time at Coors Field, especially if many of those same players then struggle on the road. If the Rox acquired a new outfielder, for example, players like Tapia, Hilliard, or Garrett Hampson might become expendable trade chips. But, for both Schmidt and rival GMs, how do you properly gauge the value of a player when their home ballpark may have such an outsized impact on their performance?
There’s no question that the Rockies face plenty of difficulties unique to their team alone, yet their situation hasn’t been helped by some self-inflicted wounds, such as the hard feelings that surrounded Nolan Arenado’s departure and how Story seemed openly displeased that he wasn’t moved at the trade deadline. This offseason will be very instructive in illustrating Schmidt’s direction for the team and how it differs from the Bridich era, and in lieu of substantive changes, Rox fans may continue to be wary at the future outlook.