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The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt

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There haven’t been many better major leaguers than first baseman Paul Goldschmidt since he made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2011. From Goldschmidt’s first big league at-bat through last season, he slashed .297/.398/.532 with 209 home runs in 4,708 plate appearances and showed off rare athleticism for his position, adding 124 stolen bases. During his first seven-plus years in the bigs, Goldschmidt tied for sixth in wRC+ (144) and ranked ninth in fWAR (36.2). Goldschmidt did a large portion of that damage on a sweetheart contract for Arizona, which signed him to a five-year, $32MM guarantee entering 2013. When the club made that commitment to Goldschmidt, he was about to begin his first of six straight All-Star seasons.

With Goldschmidt on the brink of a contract year in 2019, he understandably wasn’t going to take a discount this time. And the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to splurge on Goldschmidt, even though he’s a franchise icon, prior to his age-31 season. As a result, the Diamondbacks made the difficult decision to trade Goldschmidt to the Cardinals last December for three players – right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and infielder Andy Young – as well as a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. It looked like a solid haul at the time for one year of Goldschmidt, and indeed, Weaver and Kelly have impressed this year in the desert.

The Cardinals, who missed the playoffs in each of the previous three years, thought the Goldschmidt acquisition would inject new life into their lineup. The team was thrilled to reel in Goldschmidt, who finally got his enormous payday with a five-year, $130MM extension on the cusp of the season. So far, though, it hasn’t looked like a great allocation of funds. Goldschmidt has underwhelmed enough that he won’t be an All-Star this year, and the Redbirds have consistently taken one step forward and another back en route to a 41-41 record.

St. Louis’ offense ranks 21st in the majors in both runs and and wRC+. After adding one of the premier hitters of the past decade, the club expected much better. Goldschmidt hasn’t done a lot to help matters with his .246/.336/.405 line and 98 wRC+ through 352 plate appearances. While Goldschmidt has slugged 14 home runs, three came in the Cardinals’ second game of the season, when it looked like the start of an ideal match between him and the team.

On its surface, Goldschmidt’s middling production doesn’t mean this is the beginning of the end of an illustrious career. Just last year, he struggled through May before going on a three-month tear to restore his numbers. That said, it would be reasonable to sound some concern over Goldschmidt’s issues this year.

While Goldschmidt put up an expected weighted on-base average of .367 to .404 from 2015-18 – the first four seasons of the Statcast era – he’s down to .343 in that category this season. Granted, that’s definitely not awful – it ranks in the league’s 62nd percentile – though it’s not befitting of the superstar we’ve grown accustomed to watching. Moreover, a high batting average has always been a calling card for Goldschmidt, who’s a lifetime .294 hitter in part because he has registered a .351 BABIP in the majors. Goldschmidt’s BABIP this season has dropped to .302, which could be a sign of bad luck on its face, yet there’s almost no gap between his .246 average/.248 expected BA in 2019. He’s also walking less than he has since 2011, albeit at a still-solid 11.4 percent clip, while chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever and making less in-zone contact than he has in any season but his rookie introduction.

Less contact on strikes has led to less power for Goldschmidt, who has limped to a .159 ISO thus far. That’s a 75-point drop in comparison to 2011-18 (.234) and a below-average mark relative to the league (.180). Going back to 2018, Goldschmidt showed power all over the strike zone, including on the inner and outer halves of the plate. This year, though, those pitches have largely thrown him for a loop.

When Goldschmidt has gotten on base this season, his long-established ability to steal has been nonexistent. Goldschmidt has swiped at least 15 bags in five seasons, though that number dipped to seven last year and has fallen to zero in 2019. He has only attempted to steal once, in fact, likely because his top speed has waned. Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has gradually come down in recent years and only ranks in the game’s 37th percentile, per Statcast.

Three months into Goldschmidt’s Cardinals career, it’s much too soon to say this type of production is his new normal. Frankly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goldschmidt go on a vintage run in the coming months. Considering the Cardinals’ place in this year’s NL postseason chase, not to mention the $22MM per annum they owe Goldschmidt through 2024, they need a rebound from their franchise player sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season

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The Marlins acquired second baseman Starlin Castro from the Yankees entering 2018 as a way to balance out money in a blockbuster trade. Miami received Castro in its return for then-reigning NL MVP outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, whose onerous contract largely exited the Marlins’ books. When he arrived in South Florida, Castro’s pact included a remaining two years and approximately $22MM in guarantees, far from an unreasonable total considering his track record at that point. Still, the rebuilding Marlins couldn’t find a taker throughout 2018 for Castro, who posted yet another average season in a career full of them.

Even though he came into this year as a four-time All-Star and a 1,445-hit man, Castro hasn’t been a spectacular major leaguer. Also a former Cub, the 29-year-old slashed .281/.321/.411 (97 wRC+) from 2010-18 and was coming off four straight seasons with 2.3 fWAR or fewer.

Three months into 2019, the Marlins would surely love another year of Castro’s typically decent production. They’ve gotten anything but that so far. Castro’s stuck in the worst season of his career with minus-1.2 fWAR – good for last among qualified major league hitters – through 345 plate appearances. With a .230/.258/.313 line, Castro’s 51 wRC+ is also the lowest in the game. It basically suggests the 2019 version of Castro has been half the hitter he was in the prior nine seasons.

While Castro continued to look like a potential trade candidate at the outset of the season, that’s probably out the window now. Furthermore, there’s no chance he’ll stay off the free-agent market in the offseason. Castro’s employer will have a chance to pick up a $16MM club option over the winter, but the team’s sure to buy him out for $1MM instead, officially concluding the seven-year, $60MM extension he signed as a potential Cubs cornerstone in August 2012.

A look beyond Castro’s woeful bottom-line production this year shows this isn’t just a case of poor luck. A solid batting average has long driven Castro’s offensive numbers, but his regular BA and expected average (.243) are horrific. Similarly, Castro ranks near the bottom of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (8th percentile), expected slugging percentage (15th percentile), average exit velocity (46th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile), per Statcast.

Never one to draw many walks or amass a lot of strikeouts, Castro’s numbers in those categories look fairly normal. He has collected walks at a 4 percent clip, down 1.1 percent from his lifetime mark, and struck out 17.3 percent of the time – not far from a 16.8 career mean. On the other hand, Castro’s .319 batting average on balls in play is down to a meager .262 this year, in part because of the less impactful contact he has made. Power has never really been a hallmark for Castro, though his .083 ISO is easily his lowest in several years and ranks third from last in baseball.

For the most part, the right-handed Castro has performed respectably against same-handed and lefty pitchers alike, which is a key reason why he has been a regular for so long. However, righties are now stymieing Castro, who has put forth a horrendous 35 wRC+ against them this year. Back in 2017, when Castro logged an overall 109 wRC+ to end his Yankees stint, he showed at least some power against righties over the middle and inner half of the plate. That power has now completely evaporated, however.

Even though Castro has never possessed much pop, what he used to have help make him a credible major league hitter. Now, as Castro’s power has disappeared, so has his usefulness as a player. Perhaps it’ll come back at some point, but the way Castro’s trending, he’s heading toward a cold winter in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jason Heyward’s Quietly Productive Season

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Outfielder Jason Heyward entered the majors as a can’t-miss prospect in 2010, three years after the Braves chose him 14th overall in the 2007 draft. Heyward made good on the hype in his first at-bat on Opening Day, smashing a three-run homer off Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, and never really looked back from there in his first season. During a rookie campaign in which he didn’t turn 21 until August, Heyward posted 4.6 fWAR on the strength of tremendous offensive production and right field defense. Little did anyone know Heyward wouldn’t again approach the .277/.393/.456 slash and 134 wRC+ he recorded as a rookie.

Heyward did remain a quality hitter from 2011-15 with the Braves and Cardinals, albeit not as formidable as he was during his initial campaign. Still, combining the above-average offense, stellar defense and well-regarded base running he displayed over his first several seasons, he landed an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Cubs entering the 2016 campaign. Heyward was part of the Cubs’ drought-breaking World Series team in the initial year of his deal, in which he delivered a behind-the-scenes rain delay speech that may have helped the team overcome the Indians in Game 7.

Title aside, the Cubs mostly haven’t gotten the bang for their buck they wanted from giving Heyward one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. During his first three years in a Cubs uniform, Heyward slashed a paltry .252/.322/.367 (85 wRC+) in 1,562 plate appearances. Heyward continued to flash terrific defense during that period, but the overall package was worth just 4.1 fWAR – less than he registered in four individual seasons before heading to Chicago.

Heyward did manage a league-average 2.0 fWAR in 2018, indicating he was hardly a lost cause, though his offense was middling at best for the third consecutive season. This year has been a different story, however. Across 320 trips to the plate, the 29-year-old has hit .273/.364/.471 (116 wRC+) with 14 home runs – already his highest total as a Cub and his most in a season since 2013. With 1.4 fWAR at the 80-game mark, Heyward’s on pace for his most valuable year as a Cub. The figure’s still not excellent, in part because Heyward has struggled as a center fielder this year, but it’s respectable for a player whose Cubs tenure has been a disappointment overall.

The question is whether the above-average offensive version of Heyward has truly returned. If we’re to believe Statcast, maybe not. Heyward’s expected weighted on-base average, .324, ranks below the league mean and lags well behind his .355 real wOBA. Likewise, Heyward’s expected slugging percentage (30th percentile), hard-hit percentage (37th percentile), average exit velocity (54th percentile) and expected batting average (61st percentile) all range from well below par to a bit above it. The left-handed Heyward’s also continuing a career-long trend of having difficulty against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a horrid .200/.262/.300 line and a 48 wRC+ this season.

On the other hand, Heyward’s showing off an impressive ability to draw walks that has helped buoy his numbers. With a 12.5 percent walk rate (his highest since his rookie year) against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate, Heyward’s K/BB ratio ranks 25th in the majors. Heyward’s also displaying way more power than he has in recent years, evidenced in part by his aforementioned home run spike. His isolated power (.199) is his greatest since 2012 and sits 84 points higher than the ISO he combined for during his first three Cubs seasons. Heyward’s doing much more damage throughout several zones compared to last year, as FanGraphs’ heat maps show (2018, 2019).

One cause: Heyward’s hitting far fewer infield fly balls than he did earlier in his Chicago stint. An infield fly’s essentially an automatic out, and Heyward hit them at a 16.9 percent rate over the prior three seasons. That number has shrunk to 10.4 this year. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Heyward has upped his hard contact by 6.1 percent compared to 2016-18 and decreased his soft-hit rate by almost 8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Heyward has also logged a 12.2-degree launch angle which ranks as his loftiest in the Statcast era.

None of this is to say the Cubs should be content with what they’ve gotten from Heyward during his run with the team. In fact, they’re stuck with Heyward, who won’t be opting out of the remaining four years and $86MM on his contract during the upcoming offseason. However, he has been a legitimate bright spot this year on a team that has been something of a letdown overall. The Cubs do hold a National League playoff spot at the moment, but not by much. They’ve been slumping since late May and have won just 45 of their first 85 games. Heyward certainly hasn’t been part of the problem, though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Trade That Is Working Out For The Marlins

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The Marlins have been roundly criticized for trades in recent years, deals that have come thanks in part to a desire to cut payroll. Outfielders Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna, second baseman Dee Gordon and catcher J.T. Realmuto are all prominent players the rebuilding Marlins, stuck in a soon-to-be 16-year playoff drought, have traded away since the end of the 2017 season.

While the Marlins’ decisions since co-owner Derek Jeter took the reins in 2017 haven’t come without protests, at least one of the trades they’ve made under him is paying significant dividends at the MLB level.

In November ’17, a few months after the former Yankees shortstop took the Marlins’ reins, his new team seemingly took advantage of his previous franchise. Miami acquired left-hander Caleb Smith and first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper from New York for right-handed pitching prospect Mike King and $250K in international bonus pool money. The Yankees did so in part in an effort to pad their offer to then-free agent Shohei Ohtani, but he ultimately signed with the Angels.

Now, with the World Series-contending Yankees on the hunt for another credible starter, the current version of Smith would fit into their rotation. But Smith, now 27, didn’t get much of a chance with the Bombers. A 14th-round pick of the Yankees in 2013, Smith reached the majors for the first time in 2017 – the season before the trade – and struggled over 18 2/3 innings. Since then, though, Smith has performed like a legitimate major league rotation piece for the Marlins. Dating back to 2018, he has pitched to a 3.83 ERA/4.09 FIP with 10.67 K/9 against 3.33 BB/9, albeit with an awful 28.7 percent groundball rate, in 143 1/3 innings. Among starters who have thrown at least 140 frames since last year, Smith ranks 15th in strikeout rate.

Although Smith has been on the injured list since June 7 with a hip problem, teams still figure to approach the Marlins with interest in him going into the July 31 trade deadline. However, the Marlins don’t seem willing to trade Smith, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign.

The Marlins may have stumbled on a long-term piece in Smith. The same holds true for Cooper, who comes with the same amount of control as Smith. Cooper, a sixth-rounder of the Brewers in 2013, went to the Yankees in July 2017 in a deal for now-Cardinals reliever Tyler Webb. Cooper didn’t look like much more than the potential right-handed side of a first base platoon at the time, and injuries limited him to fewer than 100 plate appearances between the majors and minors last season. This year, though, Cooper’s taking advantage of his chance on a woeful Miami team.

Although the Marlins rank second to last in the majors in runs, their problems haven’t been Cooper’s fault. The 28-year-old has easily been their best hitter, in fact. He’s off to a .317/.383/.488 start (134 wRC+) with seven home runs across 183 plate appearances in his first extensive major league experience. Whether Cooper can keep it up is the question.

The bad: Cooper’s .388 batting average on balls in play is nowhere near sustainable, nor will 35 percent of his fly balls keep leaving the yard. Likewise, it’s concerning that Cooper’s hitting ground balls upward of 55 percent of the time, especially considering he’s hardly a speed demon. His 16.3 percent fly ball rate ranks last among hitters who have totaled 180-plus PA this year. That isn’t necessarily a death knell to his production, granted, as the great Ohtani ranks just two spots better. Cooper’s also having immense difficulty against left-handed pitchers, oddly enough. While he has smacked righties to the tune of a .400 wOBA, southpaws have held him to a .298 mark.

In more encouraging news, Cooper’s strikeout, walk and contact rates are all hovering around average. Better still, Statcast indicates Cooper’s expected slugging percentage (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (75th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (83rd percentile) and expected batting average (95th percentile) are all good to exemplary. His .371 xwOBA is essentially right in line with a .376 wOBA that ties him with Max Kepler and Yoan Moncada. All of that suggests Cooper will keep making an impact so long as he continues making contact.

At 32-50, this hasn’t been a victory-laden season for the Marlins, but you take the wins where you can. And it looks as if the team prevailed on its end of this trade with the Yankees, a club so loaded that they can get away with letting go of useful contributors without getting a lot back. The Marlins aren’t as fortunate, but it seems they landed a pair of quality pieces in Smith and Cooper.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Decline Of Jake Arrieta

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Right-hander Jake Arrieta entered free agency in winter 2017 after a four-year run as one of the majors’ premier starters. Arrieta was toiling as a back-end starter with the Orioles just a few years before, but he turned his fortunes around with the Cubs. Not only was he part of the Cubs’ World Series drought-breaking team in 2016, but he won the 2015 NL Cy Young Award and posted a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9 in 803 innings and 128 starts in a Chicago uniform.

If Arrieta had his druthers, he likely would have stayed on the North Side of Chicago, where he became a beloved figure. However, the Cubs’ Theo Epstein-led front office wasn’t willing to pony up for the Scott Boras client when he hit free agency. The Cubs weren’t alone in that regard. There were reports Arrieta had designs on a $200MM-plus contract when he reached the open market, but after upward of four months in free agency, he settled for the Phillies’ three-year, $75MM guarantee in March 2018. While the Phillies hoped they were landing a front-line starter at something of a discounted cost, they’ve essentially gotten mediocrity to this point.

Arrieta continued his years-long run of durability in 2018, notching 31 starts and 172 2/3 frames, though the results weren’t great. He logged a 3.96 ERA/4.26 ERA with 7.19 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 51.6 percent groundball rate. Respectable numbers? Absolutely. Worth ace-caliber pay? No.

Now 33 years old, Arrieta’s amid his worst season since 2013, when the Cubs pulled him from the Orioles’ scrapheap. He has pitched to a 4.43 ERA/5.14 FIP with 7.03 K/9, 3.47 BB/9 and a 52 percent grounder mark. Despite his continued penchant for inducing grounders, Arrieta has degenerated into a back-end starter. As a result, there’s basically no chance he’ll vacate the remainder of his contract after the season. Arrieta’s pact gives him the right to opt out of his $20MM salary for 2020 in favor of free agency. On the other hand, the Phillies could void his opt-out to pay him $40MM from 2021-22. It appears you can forget that on both counts, though.

Beyond simply looking at Arrieta’s basic numbers, leaks in his foundation are manifest. His average fastball velocity is hovering in the high-92 mph range for the third straight season, down from 94-95 in his best days. As noted before, he’s striking out fewer batters and walking more. Home runs have also become a major problem for Arrieta, who yielded long balls on 10.9 percent of flies from 2013-18 but is up to 21.4 percent in that category this year. Among qualified starters, only the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (whom they chose over Arrieta) and the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson have allowed more HRs per fly ball.

Looking at Arrieta’s bloated HR rate, it’s no surprise he’s fooling fewer hitters than he did during his peak. Arrieta’s 7.4 percent swinging-strike rate is his worst since 2010, when he debuted in the bigs, while his 27 percent chase rate is his lowest ever. When hitters have gone after Arrieta’s pitches, they’ve made much more impactful contact than before, evidenced by a hard-hit rate (37.9 percent) that easily ranks as the highest of his career. And it hasn’t been a matter of bad luck for Arrieta, whose expected weighted on-base average against (.338) is almost identical to his xwOBA (.337), according to Statcast.

While searching for further causes for Arrieta’s decline, it’s obvious a change in pitch usage has played a role. In 2015, when Arrieta won his sole Cy Young, he fired sinkers at a 33 percent rate, complementing those with sliders (29 percent), four-seamers (18), curveballs (15) and changeups (5). Those pitches all yielded good to dominant results – including against left-handed batters, who posted a dreadful .205 wOBA against him. Nowadays, though, Arrieta’s tossing his sinker 54 percent of the time and his change at roughly 17 percent, with his slider (15) and curve (12) next. For all intents and purposes, he has scrapped his four-seamer. Arrieta’s oft-used sinker and slider have been the main the sources of his problems in 2019, according to Statcast, which credits hitters with a .373 wOBA/.372 xwOBA against the former pitch and a .413/.413 line versus the latter. And lefties – whom Arrieta once stifled – have smashed him for a .384 wOBA.

Including his 2019 performance, the Phillies have gotten an OK starter in Arrieta – not the front-line righty they wanted when they signed him. His presence couldn’t help the club to the playoffs last year and doesn’t look as if it’ll be a key reason if the Phillies make it this season. Considering that, it appears the two sides will be tied together through 2020.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Blue Jays’ Potential Outfield Savior

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This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.

Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.

Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.

Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.

The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.

To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.

Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.

Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Aaron Sanchez’s Diminishing Trade Value

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Trade rumors have swirled around both Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman for months, though teams considered the Blue Jays’ asking price for either young right-hander to be “uncomfortably high” during the offseason.  The Jays were thought to still be looking for a premium return in any deal, despite the fact that both Sanchez and Stroman were coming off inconsistent, injury-shortened seasons.  The prevailing wisdom was that the Jays would be counting on both pitchers to be healthy and effective in the first half of 2019, paving the way for the duo to become prime trade chips at the July 31st deadline.

For Stroman, it’s been all systems go in amassing a 3.04 ERA over 100 1/3 innings, including his six shutout frames against the Red Sox today.  For Sanchez, however, his first 16 starts have only led to more frustration.  Sanchez has managed only a 5.49 ERA over 78 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators (5.48 FIP, 5.30 xFIP, 5.43 SIERA) and hard-contact numbers (a .355 xwOBA just slightly below his .359 wOBA) providing evidence that Sanchez’s struggles are far removed from simple bad luck.

Counting his abbreviated 2017 season, Sanchez is now in his third straight year of issuing at least five walks per nine innings.  While he has a 50% grounder rate, 16.4% of the fly balls he has allowed have left the yard, leading to an unimpressive 1.4 HR/9.  Never a big strikeout pitcher even at his peak in 2016, Sanchez has a 7.44 K/9 this season.

Speaking of Sanchez’s 2016 season, that excellent year stands out as the most recent bit of evidence that the right-hander has be a front-of-the-rotation type of starter, as Sanchez has since been consistently hampered by a variety of finger problems.  Between cracked and removed fingernails, surgery to repair a right index finger injured after being caught in a suitcase, and constant blister problems, Sanchez has been fraught with the type of hard-to-diagnose yet persistent injury concerns that would give any team pause.

As Sanchez told The Athletic’s John Lott (subscription required) last winter, the finger problems led to mechanical issues, as Sanchez tried to adjust for a new grip on the baseball.  This led to a steep increase of Sanchez’s use of a changeup in 2018 that has continued into this season, and Sanchez’s curveball usage has also spiked to a career-high 22.7% this season (his previous high was 16.6% in 2017).

Though Sanchez is averaging 94mph on his fastball, he has only been throwing it 58.3% of the time in 2019 due to a lack of effectiveness.  As per Fangraphs’ fastball runs above average metric (wFB), Sanchez has gotten less than his heater (-12.1 wFB) than all but two other qualified pitchers in baseball.  Lott noted back in January that Sanchez’s sinker was a plus pitch for him in 2016, yet it has become an increasingly smaller part of the righty’s arsenal — after throwing it 54.9% of the time in 2016, that total dropped to 37.9% last season and 36.3% this year.

With all this in mind, Sanchez would need a big turn-around over the next four weeks to merit the type of return that the Blue Jays want for a young (Sanchez turns 27 on July 1) pitcher who is controlled through the 2020 season.  Controllable arms have enough value in baseball that the Jays would surely still get some type of decent offers for Sanchez, especially if there’s a team out there that believes it has a fix for Sanchez’s grip problems.

The trouble is, a “decent” offer would still be seen as a big disappointment for a rebuilding Jays team that hasn’t been able to maximize its return on several of its veterans.  Josh Donaldson would’ve been the Blue Jays’ biggest trade chip of 2018 yet shoulder and calf problems kept the third baseman off the field for much of the season, leaving the Jays forced to settle for just one prospect coming off Tommy John surgery (Julian Merryweather) in a trade with Cleveland.  J.A. Happ was dealt at last year’s trade deadline for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney, neither of whom have done much for the Jays this season.  Roberto Osuna was sent to Houston last July for a three-pitcher package that included current closer Ken Giles, though Osuna surely would’ve netted more were it not for his off-the-field legal issues.

A case can be made that Toronto could opt to just hang onto Sanchez to see if he can ever get on track either after July 31st or in the first few months of the 2020 season.  Sanchez is earning only $3.9MM this year and will only get a modest raise on that salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility, plus the Blue Jays will still need some kind of veteran rotation help next year.

There’s nothing stopping the Jays from continuing to explore trades for Sanchez over the winter, though then the team runs the risk that his rebound performance simply never comes around (or simply won’t come in a Toronto uniform if a change of scenery is required).  The Jays face an increasingly tough decision leading up to the trade deadline, as the team will have to weigh whether settling for a modest trade return for Sanchez now might be preferable than getting even less, or nothing at all, for Sanchez down the road if his underwhelming 2018-19 performance represents his new normal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking For A Match In A Clint Frazier Trade

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In July 2016, when the Yankees were on the periphery of the American League playoff race, they made the bold decision to trade superstar reliever Andrew Miller to the Indians for four players. Outfielder Clint Frazier and left-hander Justus Sheffield, two top 100 prospects, headlined an impressive-looking haul for the Yankees. The Yankees’ hope then was that Frazier and Sheffield would eventually turn into indispensable pieces of their 25-man roster, but three years later, we now know it may not happen. Sheffield’s already out of the organization, which flipped him to the Mariners last winter in a package for two years of control over front-line starter James Paxton. Frazier remains, though his place with the franchise could be on shaky ground.

Frazier, who Yankees general manager Brian Cashman once said possesses “legendary bat speed,” has already racked up his most significant major league playing time this season. Returning from a concussion-marred 2018, the 24-year-old has slashed a solid .283/.330/.513 (118 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a .230 ISO in 2019 plate appearances. Although that’s starting-caliber offensive production on your typical team, a healthy Yankees lineup is anything but ordinary.

The acquisition of designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners last weekend helped push Frazier out of New York, which subsequently sent him back to Triple-A Scranton. With Encarnacion and Luke Voit at DH/first and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin in the outfield, the team had little choice but to take advantage of its ability to option Frazier. Even with Maybin now going to the injured list, the Yankees may not recall Frazier because he’d mostly ride the bench.

Frazier was understandably displeased with the Yankees when they demoted him, though it seems they still hold him in high regard. Owner Hal Steinbrenner voiced his support for Frazier this week, saying he’s going to be “a big part of this team going forward.” Nevertheless, Steinbrenner’s words won’t quell the trade rumblings hovering around Frazier as the July 31 deadline nears. The Yankees don’t have to trade Frazier, who’s not on track to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign, but they may not be able to find consistent playing time for him next year either. While Gardner and Maybin could be gone by then, most or all of Encarnacion (if his $20MM club option is exercised), Voit, Judge, Stanton and Hicks will return in prominent roles.

With little space for Frazier in the near term, the Yankees’ best bet may be to flip him for help this year in an effort to boost a World Series-contending roster. Adding up Frazier’s youth, production in the minors and majors, and controllable status, he’d be a valuable commodity on the trade market. New York’s known to be hunting for a middle- or front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher – something it may be able to acquire by dangling Frazier in talks with other clubs. The Yankees don’t boast a high-end farm system, which would make it all the more logical for them to use Frazier as trade currency this summer.

If the Yankees are going to trade Frazier in the next month-plus, it reportedly won’t be for someone who’s due to become a free agent. Should we take that at face value, it would rule out a deal involving Frazier and Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner – this year’s most hyped rental starter. Regardless, Bumgarner would have to waive his partial no-trade clause for the Yankees.

The Giants’ outfield is abysmal, which would seem to make Frazier a fit, though it’s still unclear whether they’d choose him over another team’s offer that could be fronted by a top 100 prospect(s). After all, the vast outfield at Oracle Park in San Francisco is no place for a weak defender. Frazier has been that to this point. Factoring in his nationally televised misadventures in right field against the Red Sox on June 3, Frazier has posted minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 319 innings as an outfielder this season. Those struggles aren’t anything new for Frazier, who’s at minus-12 DRS with minus-8.4 UZR during his 686-inning big league career as an outfielder.

Bumgarner’s the most proven starter among likely trade chips, but he’s not the most valuable. That honor belongs to Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s enjoying a breakout season, makes a paltry 2019 salary ($2.6MM) and isn’t set for free agency until after 2022. For all of those reasons, Frazier won’t be enough to headline a package for Boyd, who should be able to net the Tigers a bounty headed by premium prospects. Besides, considering the Tigers don’t want to continue their relationship with defensively limited, offensively gifted corner outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, it’s fair to wonder how much they’d value a similar player in Frazier.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s AL Central rental rival in Cleveland may have its own coveted trade chip in righty Trevor Bauer. The Indians are very much in the wild-card race, yet there has still been ample speculation about a Bauer trade. He’s on a $13MM salary right now and controllable through 2020. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote Thursday that a potential Yankees acquisition of Bauer “would probably be centered around” Frazier. There’s logic behind that – the Indians are already familiar with Frazier, who’d be able to help their woeful offense on a cheap salary right away. However, Frazier alone wouldn’t be able to pry Bauer and his year and a half of remaining control out of Cleveland.

It seems the Yankees would stand a better chance of using Frazier to net Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, who, like Bauer, is under control through 2020. Stroman doesn’t have Bauer’s upside, but he’s enjoying a fine bounce-back season at an opportune time for rebuilding Toronto. The fact that Stroman’s earning a reasonable $7.4MM will only help the Blue Jays’ cause when they inevitably move him. Stroman would bring back promising prospects in a trade, but if the Jays want a more established player, Frazier’s bat would fit in an outfield whose only productive full-timer has been Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Although New York and Toronto play in the same division, that wouldn’t serve as a deterrent to a trade. These teams are just a year removed from a deadline deal which saw the Yankees acquire starter J.A. Happ for infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury and outfielder Billy McKinney.

Because we’re discussing high-end starters who’ve come up in trade rumors, we would be remiss not to mention Nationals super-ace Max Scherzer and Diamondbacks No. 1 man Zack Greinke. John Harper of SNY.tv reported Friday the Yankees would love to acquire the still-dominant Scherzer (who wouldn’t?), though it seems like much more of a pipe dream than a realistic hope on their part. For what it’s worth, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo shot down the idea of dealing the soon-to-be 35-year-old Scherzer last weekend. Even if Rizzo were to reverse course, Frazier wouldn’t come close to leading a package for Scherzer.

Frazier would have a better chance to help the Yankees land Greinke, but there are obvious roadblocks standing in the way of that. For one, thanks in part to the 35-year-old Greinke’s terrific production, the Diamondbacks are hanging in the NL playoff race. Still, if the team attempts to trade Greinke, his contract and 15-team NTC would complicate matters. Greinke, signed through 2021, is still owed upward of $90MM (including deferrals). He’ll also count $34MM-plus per season against the luxury tax until his contract runs out. If the D-backs were to assume a large portion of Greinke’s remaining deal, maybe they and the Yankees could work something out. Greinke would still have to sign off on a trade to the Bronx after that. All things considered, a swap around Frazier and Greinke looks like a long shot, to say the least.

More starters than the above figure to be available around the deadline, but ideal matches look hard to find from the Yankees’ perspective. For instance, Texas lefty Mike Minor would give the Yankees what they want – an effective starter who’s not a rental – though he probably won’t wind up on the move with the Rangers in playoff contention. The same may apply to one of Greinke’s D-backs rotation mates, Robbie Ray.

On paper, Frazier looks like a strong candidate to join a new organization by the end of July. However, in trading Frazier, the Yankees would likely need to acquire someone who would provide a noticeable boost to their World Series chances. We’ll find out soon whether they’ll be able to pull off that difficult feat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

14 Former Big Leaguers Hitting Well On Minor-League Deals

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This time of year, plenty of teams have a need for gap-filling players — some of whom can end up with more expansive opportunities. Sometimes clubs go with younger options, but there’s often good reason to go with a familiar player who has already spent ample time at the game’s highest level. Of course, you’ll also prefer a player who is active and performing well against the next-best thing to MLB pitching.

I thought it’d be interesting to round up some hitters who could be considered by their own teams or others over the coming weeks and months. Each of these 14 players has at least two years of MLB service but was forced to settle for a minor-league deal over the offseason. They’re also each turning in better-than-league-average production, though you’ll want to bear in mind that the outwardly gaudy numbers were logged in exceedingly hitter-friendly offensive environments.

Abraham Almonte, OF, Diamondbacks: The journeyman is one of several Arizona outfielders to warrant placement on this list. Indeed, his performance is arguably the most surprising and interesting of all. Almonte isn’t just on a hot run with the stick. He’s showing impeccable plate discipline (43 strikeouts vs. 41 walks) and heretofore unseen power (ten home runs, .279 ISO). Almonte has also swiped eight bags. Not a bad stat line for a center-field capable player.

Brandon Barnes, OF, Indians: Though he has seen just 21 MLB plate appearances since the end of the 2016 season, the former Astros and Rockies outfielder is clamoring for attention right now at Triple-A. He’s off to a .297/.352/.581 slash with 15 homers and five steals through 256 plate appearances. He was similarly impressive last year at the highest level of the minors, albeit in a very different offensive environment.

Andres Blanco, INF, Braves: Blanco’s late-career renaissance with the Phillies faded in 2017, but he has been turning in strong offensive numbers at Triple-A ever since. He didn’t earn a call-up despite a nice showing last year with the Brewers’ top affiliate. This year, Blanco owns a .261/.371/.450 slash with tetn long balls through 294 plate appearances. Perhaps his luck will be different this time around, though it’s tough to see a path up in Atlanta.

Drew Butera, C, Rockies: He has already been up and down to the majors this year, accepting an assignment back at Triple-A after clearing waivers. Nobody really thinks the veteran backstop — 36 in August — is a sudden offensive powerhouse. But hey, it’s a nice to see the glove-first performer enjoy a good run at this late stage of his career. He’s drawing walks at a 16.1% clip against a 17.9% strikeout rate and carries an appealing .311/.429/.467 batting line through 112 plate appearances at Albuquerque.

Danny Espinosa, INF, Mets: Espinosa had his moments over the years with the Nats, but there were times when his plate discipline reached untenable levels. It seemed he was all but done for after a brutal run over the past two years. But the switch-hitting middle infielder is showing new life at Syracuse, where he carries a .256/.340/.462 slash along with 11 home runs and eight steals. He’s striking out at a pleasing 21.1% rate while walking 10.5% of the time.

Ryan Flaherty, INF, Indians: Flaherty never turned the corner for the Orioles and couldn’t sustain a hot start last year with the Braves. Now, he’s turning in solid work at Triple-A with the Cleveland org. His .265/.370/.455 batting line is only good for a 108 wRC+, but that’s a notable enough showing for a guy who was valued a fair bit for his versatile glovework.

Ryan Goins, INF, White Sox: Say it with me, Jays fans: “I told you so!!!” Many of the Toronto faithful were sad to see Goins depart, though he was never much of an offensive performer. Now? He’s walking (12.9%) and slugging (.503) at personal-high rates. He’s now through 224 plate appearances of .314/.404/.503 hitting (133 wRC+) for the Sox’ top affiliate.

Logan Morrison, 1B, Yankees: It’s not clear whether there’s any chance the Yankees can shoehorn LoMo into their roster, but if not he might well end up elsewhere. Morrison is showing some signs that his power stroke could be back; through 120 plate appearances, he has recorded nine long balls and sports a .318 ISO/.564 SLG. He isn’t getting on base as much as one might like, but he isn’t striking out much either.

Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF, Dodgers: He didn’t even appear with an affiliated team last year, but the former Twins and O’s big leaguer is back in action at the Double-A level for the Dodgers. He’s striking out at a 27.2% clips but drawing walks at an even more robust rate (16.0%) and driving the ball (eight home runs, .239 ISO).

Jace Peterson, INF, Orioles: Peterson has appeared with four MLB organizations in his five seasons of action. He’s currently busy tamping down on the strikeouts that crept into his game (13.7% strikeout rate vs 11.9% walk rate) and showing a bit of a power boost (six homers, .178 ISO) at Triple-A with the O’s.

Rob Refsnyder, INF/OF, Reds: Though he couldn’t stick with the Yankees and Rays, Refsnyder is making another bid for the majors after an early season trade sent him from the D-Backs’ top affiliate to that of the Cincinnati organization. Refsnyder is a bit BABIP-reliant (.410) but is obviously making good contact, as he’s through 233 plate appearances of .325/.395/.522 hitting.

Travis Snider, OF, Diamondbacks: It seems hard to believe that Snider is still just 31 years of age and hasn’t sniffed the big league since way back in 2015. He’s edging back on the map now with an interesting return to the affiliated ranks after a year away. Through 232 plate appearances, the left-handed hitter has drawn 39 walks against 49 strikeouts while also managing to put the ball over the fence six times.

Matt Szczur, OF, Diamondbacks: Now a month away from his 30th birthday, Szczur is showing newfound power — albeit in a fairly small sample. Through 112 plate appearances with the Snakes’ top affiliate, he has a whopping .303 isolated power mark and seven dingers.

Ruben Tejada, INF, Mets: The 29-year-old is back with the Mets organization after a fairly memorable career opening there. He hasn’t touched the majors since 2017 but is busy raising eyebrows at Triple-A. Through 109 plate appearances, Tejada has as many walks as strikeouts and a cool .359/.450/.576 batting line.

A few other interesting or notable minor-league hitters who are performing well but did not quite meet all the list’s specifications: Dilson Herrera & Arismendy Alcantara (only 1+ years MLB service);  Mikie Mahtook & Yasmany Tomas (not on minor-league deals); Yadiel Hernandez (signed a minor-league deal out of Cuba but has yet to debut in majors)

The Mets Bullpen: Makeover Fail?

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It’s still too soon to make any conclusive statements on the outcome of the Mets’ offseason roster revamping efforts. Relief pitching, in particular, can turn on a dime. But it’s safe to say that the team’s bullpen makeover is not looking pretty at this moment.

GM Brodie Van Wagenen made the relief corps a key part of his offseason strategy. He had already sewn up much of the roster work by mid-December, at which time he declared that the organization had “shored up the bullpen with two premium arms.” The club went on to add a pair of lefties and entered camp thinking it had made huge strides in the pen.

The relief additions absorbed a large chunk of the Mets’ somewhat limited transactional capital. Setup man Jeurys Familia took a $30MM guarantee over three years, while southpaw Justin Wilson went for $10MM in two seasons. Combined, that was just over half the cash promised by the Mets in free agency. Adding high-octane young closer Edwin Diaz meant taking on big money through the Robinson Cano contract and coughing up recent #6 overall draft choice Jarred Kelenic, who is streaking up prospect boards. The deal also sent out veteran righty Anthony Swarzak, who hasn’t been perfect but does carry a 3.12 ERA with a 33:14 K/BB ratio on the season.

Not so much, as it turns out. The Mets are leading the league lead in blown saves, having accrued a huge volume of them in the past thirty days. The relief unit has fared poorly as a whole in terms of bottom-line results, though it has hardly been the worst (that’d be the division-rival Nats) in sapping win-percentage. While the overall picture isn’t catastrophic, the failures have been magnified by situational timing.

Glance at the Mets-specific WPA leaderboard and you’ll find Seth Lugo leading the way. That’s unsurprising, as the holdover hurler has been the team’s most effective relief pitcher. The only other clear positives in WPA? Wilmer Font, Tim Peterson, Hector Santiago, and Ryan O’Rourke — an assemblage of pitchers who have combined for more walks than strikeouts. Only Font, who has turned in passable work as a long man, is even still on the roster. Diaz leads the team in WPA-added (4.11), but has wiped out the positive contributions with several meltdowns (-4.64).

That’s … sort of the opposite of what the Mets were hoping for. An efficiently constructed bullpen can eat innings well enough when a game is out of reach and maximize a team’s chances of winning the games in which it’s positioned to do so. We often excuse sequencing luck and situational failings for other starters and position players, citing a need to look at broad samples. That’s true to an extent in the relief world, but at the end of the day, high-leverage performance and bottom-line results are the entire game for short-work pitchers.

So, it has been a wreck thus far, but can we at least explain away some of the struggles? And can the pen be salvaged?

Let’s start with the new additions — especially, the marquee closer. Diaz is still just 25. He’s averaging over 97 mph with his heater and carrying the same spin rates he did in his unreal 2018 effort. While his swinging-strike rate is down a touch from last year, it’s a healthy 17.7%. He’s pounding the zone like he did in 2018. The difference? He has gone from a .281 BABIP-against and 10.6% HR/FB rate to .406 and 19.2%, respectively. Statcast tells us there’s likely some luck in there — Diaz’s .276 xwOBA falls well under his .331 wOBA — but also some cause for concern. Opposing hitters are compiling a whopping 47.8% hard-contact rate and 15.2 degree launch angle. It seems the physical tools are still in good working order, so this may be a matter of finding some adjustments or simply waiting out a spell of misfortune.

That’s reasonably promising. Diaz was acquired to get results, but there’s no particular reason to think he can’t get back to doing so. The Mets still need to get him the ball with a lead, however, and there are greater questions with regard to the man that was hired to be the top setup option.

Familia was back to being his sturdy and reliable self in 2018 after an injury-riddled ’17 campaign. But he’s now on the shelf for the second time this year with shoulder issues. And he carries a 7.81 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 21 walks in 27 2/3 innings. The worries go well beyond the results. Familia has lost velocity and chases out of the zone, resulting in a swinging-strike drop. There’s some promise in the Statcast numbers, as Familia is only allowing 32.1% hard contact and has an even bigger x/wOBA spread than Diaz (.071). That’s some consolation, but there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty — especially in the near term — for the 29-year-old.

There are health problems as well for Wilson, who has been limited by elbow troubles and is now dealing with another setback. It’s hard to draw many conclusions from the 9 1/3 innings that the southpaw did throw. He sat in his customary 95 mph range but threw first-pitch strikes at a career-worst 50% rate, exhibited a swinging-strike drop, and allowed two long balls. The Mets’ other southpaw addition, Luis Avilan, was hammered before going down with his own elbow problems.

The situation is rather grim at the moment. Of their new additions, only Diaz is presently available. He and Lugo are holding down the high-leverage spots, with the struggling Robert Gsellman third on the totem pole despite a 4.81 ERA. Font has delivered decent results of late, but isn’t getting strikeouts and has bounced around the league in recent seasons. And those are the established members of the staff.

Otherwise, the Mets are carrying a group of unfamiliar arms. Daniel Zamora and Chris Flexen have not been good in short samples. Stephen Nogosek is a total wild card. Brooks Pounders has an awesome pitching name, but has already had a bit of a journeyman existence at 28 years of age. He has good numbers at Triple-A, but there’s a reason the Indians let him go. That group of unestablished hurlers followed an array of others who already failed to grab hold of MLB jobs. The Mets have now cycled through twenty relievers, one of whom (Nogosek) has yet to debut. Unsurprisingly, the cupboard is rather bare. The club hasn’t yet trotted out veteran Ervin Santana or called up youngster Anthony Kay, but the former hasn’t looked good and the latter is being developed as a starter. Arquimedes Caminero is the only other hurler in the organization with substantial MLB experience that hasn’t yet received a shot to this point. You can be sure he would have if he had shown any kind of spark at Syracuse.

Unfortunately, there’s really not much for the front office to do at this point but wait and hope while continuing to take chances on the spare pieces that shake loose from other clubs. That process has resulted thus far in Font and Pounders. The Mets simply aren’t in position — 3 games under .500, 7.5 off of the division pace — to force a significant trade. They’d be looking for multiple pieces regardless. It may take a miracle for Van Wagenen is to pull off this makeover, at least in the present campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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