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Padres v. Cardinals: Who Will Advance?

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There is only one first-round playoff series remaining, and it will be decided tonight when the Padres and Cardinals complete their matchup in Game 3. The Padres entered with the far better record (37-23 against 30-28), but injuries to top starters Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger – who have been unavailable – have impacted the series.

With Lamet and Clevinger on the shelf, San Diego turned to Chris Paddack and Zach Davies in the first two games, but the pair struggled. The team’s now so short on options that it will tap reliever Craig Stammen as the opener in a bullpen game Friday. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will have Jack Flaherty on the hill. Flaherty went through a very disappointing regular season, though he’s only a year removed from serving as one of the league’s most valuable starters.

On the offensive side, the Fernando Tatis Jr.-led Padres finished the season with one of the game’s most potent attacks, ranking third in runs and fifth in wRC+. The Cardinals weren’t nearly as good (28th in runs, 19th in wRC+), but the Paul Goldschmidt-helmed outfit has outscored the Padres 16-15 in the series.

The game’s about to get underway. Which team do you expect to advance? (Poll link for app users)

Game 3: Padres or Cardinals?
Padres 70.11% (3,141 votes)
Cardinals 29.89% (1,339 votes)
Total Votes: 4,480

MLBTR Poll: Sustainable Hitter Breakout

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The trade deadline is approaching. Heck, the postseason races are already taking shape. But it’s still exceedingly early in this oddest of MLB seasons. With the action unfolding on a tightened timeline, it’s more necessary than ever not to ignore the short-sample alerts.

That said, it’s hard to ignore some of the unexpected names near the top of the WAR leaderboard with a quarter of a (partial-) season in the bag. Each of these six guys ranks among the top twenty fWAR accumulators in baseball. Four of ’em have added more value to this point of the season than living legend Mike Trout.

So … which player is likeliest to sustain something approaching their early 2020 star turn? (In alphabetical order.)

JaCoby Jones, OF, Tigers: .333/.391/.786 through 46 plate appearances. The 28-year-old hadn’t done much with his first thousand or so MLB plate appearances, but he’s suddenly knocking the socks off of the ball. Though his K/BB numbers are about as shrug-worthy as before, Jones is suddenly showing a whole lotta slug. He’s in the top ten percent leaguewide in barrel percentage and hard contact rate.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: .373/.440/.567 through 75 plate appearances. An elite draft prospect, Lewis saw his development stunted by injuries. He’s now coming into his own, though it’s hard to look past that glaring .512 batting average on balls in play. There are a lot of strikeouts, too, though Lewis is also walking at a decent clip (10.7%). While Statcast isn’t impressed with how hard he hits the ball, it does credit him with a strong barrel percentage and good wheels.

Dylan Moore, OF, Mariners: .333/.388/.689 through 49 plate appearances. This looks to be a pretty clear instance of a nice dozen-game hot streak that’ll be hard to keep up. Moore is carrying a 30.6% walk rate and 4.1% K rate while benefiting from a hefty .423 BABIP. Then again, Moore is legitimately hammering the ball, ranking among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and exit velocity. Perhaps he’s on to something here.

Austin Slater, OF, Giants: .333/.450/.667 through 40 plate appearances. Slater is running and gunning thus far, logging three homers and four swiped bags while sporting a solid 12.5% walk rate. That 208 wRC+ really pops for a guy that contributes in other areas of the game. Slater has had his chances before and hadn’t ever put it all together. But he was quite good at Triple-A and held his own in the majors in 2019. Could he be turning into a quality big leaguer?

Donovan Solano, INF, Giants: .458/.476/.661 through 63 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily a whole new thing so much as a surprising continuation of a nice 2019 showing. But holy smokes, look at that batting average! It’s riding on a mind-blowing .520 BABIP … which follows a .409 mark from last year. Solano isn’t exactly mashing, but he sure is translating his contact ability into results — and not just because of good fortune. Statcast credits him with a 97th percentile expected batting average.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants: .306/.442/.629 through 77 plate appearances. Just another San Francisco superstar slugger, no big deal. Like Solano, Yaz 2.0 did turn in very good numbers last year. But we were all prepared to see him step back in 2020, right? Instead, there’s something all the more intriguing going on. Yasztrzemski has already drawn 15 walks to go with his 16 strikeouts on the season, providing yet more evidence that he has really figured things out.

So, which player is most likely to carry this forward? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Most Likely To Sustain Early Breakout?
Mike Yastrzemski 50.98% (3,332 votes)
Kyle Lewis 30.31% (1,981 votes)
JaCoby Jones 7.57% (495 votes)
Donovan Solano 5.78% (378 votes)
Austin Slater 2.78% (182 votes)
Dylan Moore 2.57% (168 votes)
Total Votes: 6,536

Poll: Big-Budget Long-Term Payrolls

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Looking at long-range payroll commitments, there’s a fairly sizable gap between the top-five spenders and the number six club (the Padres, at a total of $396MM). Here’s that top-five:

Rank Team Total
1 Angels $651.00
2 Yankees $612.00
3 Dodgers $533.36
4 Nationals $488.68
5 Phillies $488.50

That list isn’t remotely surprising. Some other deep-pocketed teams have pared back or simply not yet agreed to blockbuster extensions with existing stars. The handful of teams listed above have each recently agreed to monster contracts with one or more superstars.

Looking at a team’s future outlook involves quite a bit more than its contractual commitments. We’d want to consider controllable young talent, the prospect pool, and a wide variety of business factors in assessing which organization is best-situated for the long haul.

Here, though, we’ll just focus on the deals that are already locked in. First, I’ll re-list each of those five teams’ eexisting commitments. Then, you will vote for the one that you’d most prefer to have were you operating a large-budget franchise. (Click on the links to expand the image.)

The Angels feature two mid-prime superstars, including the greatest player of this generation.

The Yankees have an ace, a former MVP who could still return to his former glory, and a group of quality players.

The Dodgers had only limited future commitments until they struck a bold deal to keep one of the game’s best players.

The Nationals are all-in on high-grade rotation pieces.

The Phillies spent big to pluck high-end talent from division rivals.

Which is the best slate of contract commitments? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which big-budget contract mix is best?
Dodgers 43.93% (2,067 votes)
Yankees 21.04% (990 votes)
Angels 15.71% (739 votes)
Nationals 11.50% (541 votes)
Phillies 7.82% (368 votes)
Total Votes: 4,705

Rockies V. Padres: Who’s More Likely To Make Playoffs?

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Neither Colorado nor San Diego entered the season as teams expected to contend for playoff berths, but both the Rockies and Padres have been among the National League’s best teams a week-plus into what will go down as a strange 2020 campaign. The NL West rivals met over the weekend, and the Rockies took two of three to vault them into first place in the division – yes, even ahead of the mighty Dodgers – with a 6-2 record. The Padres, who are trying to snap a 13-year playoff drought, are now a game back at 6-4.

When the dust settles at year’s end (if a full season actually happens), there’s little doubt that the Dodgers will be the top team standing in the NL West. Frankly, they’re too loaded to expect otherwise. But it would still be a major accomplishment for the Rockies or Padres to earn wild-card berths. Colorado’s not far removed from back-to-back playoff spots, having played meaningful October ball in 2017-18, though the team fell on hard times during a 71-win effort last season and did little to nothing to improve during the offseason. San Diego was pretty aggressive, meanwhile, though it entered the winter as a 70-win team with a similarly high hill to climb.

The fact that the league added three extra playoff teams in each league for 2020 obviously helps the causes of every club, especially those that have started well this year. The Rockies have charged to first in their division on the strength of some of the usual suspects (Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, German Marquez and Jon Gray), and they’ve done so despite struggles from team MVP Nolan Arenado. Surprisingly, though, veterans Daniel Murphy, Matt Kemp and Daniel Bard – whose best days seemed long gone when the season started – have picked up some of the slack.

The Padres are playing .600 ball in the early going thanks in no small part to continued marvelous performances from second-year stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, but they’ve also gotten excellent production from other sources. Outfielder and offseason acquisition Trent Grisham has been fantastic; so have currently injured first baseman Eric Hosmer and outfielder Wil Myers, both disappointments in recent years, as well as righty Dinelson Lamet. To the surprise of no one who has paid attention to his career, newcomer and outfielder Tommy Pham has also thrived. The Padres also sport an impressive bullpen on paper, though the unit’s off to a surprisingly poor start. Regardless, in order to upgrade their cast of pitchers, the Padres could pick from a deep well of prospects (MacKenzie Gore? Luis Patino?) if they need to bolster their roster in the next couple months.

It’s going to be interesting to see if either of these rival clubs will emerge as playoff teams in 2020. They’ve certainly begun well, but which one is more likely to keep up its current pace? (Poll link for app users)

Who's more likely to make 2020 playoffs?
Padres 76.23% (3,108 votes)
Rockies 23.77% (969 votes)
Total Votes: 4,077

Predict The NL West Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, so it’s time to wrap things up with the National League West.

The Dodgers have owned this division for some time now and are perhaps more laden with star-level talent than ever with Mookie Betts on board. Then again, they may be more vulnerable than ever in a short-season format. There’s a nice assembly of talent on the Diamondbacks roster, which includes an elite young player in Ketel Marte and a sturdy slate of veterans now highlighted by intra-division transferee Madison Bumgarner. Then again, you could argue that the Padres have the greatest capacity to surprise with their own budding legend in Fernando Tatis Jr., still-youthful star Manny Machado, and a potential-laden rotation. The Rockies have an excellent core unit in their own right and perhaps have more upside than is generally recognized. And while the Giants don’t really appear primed to compete, they managed to do so last year and still have a lot of players with lofty established performance ceilings at the game’s highest level — even if it has been a few years.

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The 2020 NL West Winner
Dodgers 62.36% (5,001 votes)
Padres 22.18% (1,779 votes)
Giants 7.47% (599 votes)
Rockies 5.14% (412 votes)
D-Backs 2.84% (228 votes)
Total Votes: 8,019

Predict The AL West Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL East, AL Central, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the American League West.

The Astros entered this season off three straight division titles, though they’ve undergone some major changes since winning the AL pennant in 2019. A sign-stealing scandal cost them general manager Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch, whom they replaced with James Click and Dusty Baker, respectively. On the field, they said goodbye to co-ace Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley in free agency. Their rotation suffered yet another massive blow this week when they placed reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander on the injured list with a forearm strain. He’s one of many injured Astros pitchers, and to make matters worse, the club has been without slugger and 2019 AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez because of the coronavirus.

Despite all the issues they’re facing, the Astros at least still boast an above-average roster. They don’t look like a juggernaut in their current state, though, and that could give a division rival a chance to pounce.

The Athletics, winners of 97 games in each of the prior two seasons, boast an eminently talented roster that seems as if it’ll present the greatest challenge for Houston. The Rangers and Angels look more like wild-card possibilities than teams capable of upending the Astros, though a 60-game season could make it more likely for either to pull off an upset. Probably not the case for the Mariners, who are retooling and have gotten to a 1-4 start. While five games isn’t enough of a sample size to bury or crown anyone, the M’s have gotten crushed in three of their defeats and entered Wednesday with the majors’ worst run differential at minus-21.

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict the 2020 AL West Winner
Athletics 46.16% (3,399 votes)
Astros 26.56% (1,956 votes)
Angels 14.26% (1,050 votes)
Mariners 7.90% (582 votes)
Rangers 5.12% (377 votes)
Total Votes: 7,364

Predict The AL East Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL Central, NL Central, and NL East landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the American League East.

The Yankees have certainly been tabbed the favorite by most observers, but several key players have questionable injury histories and the short-season format opens the door for challengers. The Rays are perhaps the prime contender for a surprise, with a deep and versatile roster that’s far more talented than the payroll would suggest. Then again, we may all be overlooking the Red Sox, who have certainly shed some talent but still have several rather high-ceiling players. There’s a ton of young talent on the Blue Jays roster; maybe the team could surprise if those precocious performers develop ahead of schedule. It’s quite difficult to make a case for the Orioles, even in a pithy blurb, but … hey, they’re tied for the division lead at 2-1 entering play today!

Which team do you think is going to take the division title? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The 2020 A.L. East Division Winner
Yankees 53.19% (3,832 votes)
Rays 22.92% (1,651 votes)
Orioles 10.49% (756 votes)
Blue Jays 9.77% (704 votes)
Red Sox 3.62% (261 votes)
Total Votes: 7,204

Predict The NL East Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL Central and NL Central landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the National League East.

As is the case with the National League more broadly, the NL East looks like it could end up very tightly-packed from start to finish. The Braves have claimed back-to-back division titles and their star young core only figures to get better. Fresh off a World Series win, the Nationals still boast perhaps the game’s top starting rotation. Anthony Rendon’s defection is quite the loss, but the lineup is still chock-full of talent. The Mets, too, have a strong group of bats and an uber-ace in Jacob deGrom. Their defense is questionable and there’s some volatility on the pitching staff, yet there’s no denying the upside. The Phillies have a handful of high-end players but some uncertainty on the mound. It’s a bit more of a long shot in Miami, but the Marlins have built a high-upside young rotation and added a handful of solid veteran position players over the offseason.

Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users).

Predict The 2020 N.L. East Division Winner
Braves 63.36% (6,603 votes)
Mets 12.25% (1,277 votes)
Nationals 12.15% (1,266 votes)
Phillies 7.58% (790 votes)
Marlins 4.65% (485 votes)
Total Votes: 10,421

Predict The NL Central Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’ve started to poll the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — starting with the AL Central. With plenty more teams primed to crack the postseason under the inclusive new playoff qualification system, let’s jump the pond and take a look at the NL Central.

Kyle Hendricks gave the Cubs an early lead in the division yesterday with a 2 1/2 hour complete game shutout of the Brewers. The Reds were right there with them in blowing away the Tigers. Many believe the Reds won the offseason, and their beefed-up lineup looks to bullrush the rest of the division. Matt Davidson took the Reds’ DH at-bats in game one, but newcomers Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos will cycle through as well. The pitching is underrated, and they’re going to be a force. The Brewers roll out two of the most impactful rostered players in the sport in Josh Hader and Christian Yelich, a dangerous pair of superstars in a short season. The Pirates are an organization in transition, and if they manage a string together a competitive 60-game season, it’ll be a surprise. Until a new champ is crowned, however, the Cardinals remain the toast of the NL Central. With Carlos Martinez back in the rotation and Matt Carpenter set to take a healthy slate of DH at-bats, the 2020 Cardinals are a slightly different shape, but no less formidable.

Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The 2020 N.L. Central Division Winner
Cardinals 33.94% (3,928 votes)
Reds 27.71% (3,208 votes)
Cubs 21.69% (2,511 votes)
Brewers 12.67% (1,466 votes)
Pirates 3.99% (462 votes)
Total Votes: 11,575

Predict The AL Central Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’ll poll the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system.

There’s rather an interesting dynamic in the American League Central division this year. The Twins stepped up in 2019 and have added Josh Donaldson to an already potent lineup. They’ll try to hold off the Indians, who had previously enjoyed a stranglehold on the division and have some of the best core talent around. There’s no denying the immense potential that resides on the White Sox roster, which features both elite youngsters and newly inked quality veterans. The Royals feel they’ve got quick bounceback potential after a few down seasons; if a few players hit their ceilings, perhaps they could surprise. It’s harder to see a path for the Tigers, but they’ve also got a load of elite young hurlers pushing into the majors and will enter the season determined to make strides.

Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The 2020 A.L. Central Division Winner
Twins 56.74% (5,134 votes)
Indians 18.94% (1,714 votes)
White Sox 16.00% (1,448 votes)
Tigers 5.02% (454 votes)
Royals 3.30% (299 votes)
Total Votes: 9,049
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