Adam Warren Announces Retirement
Right-hander Adam Warren confirmed to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com yesterday that he’s retired as a player after spending parts of eight seasons in the Majors (Twitter link, with video, to Hoch’s interview with Warren). Warren, who was making an appearance at Yankees Fantasy Camp, told Hoch that he’s been enjoying time with his family but also misses being around the game and would be open to “maybe getting into some kind of coaching” role in the future.
“There’s no more attempt to come back or anything like that,” Warren replied upon being asked if he’s formally put an end to his playing career. “I’m happy with it. I had a great career — didn’t really leave anything out there, so no regrets. Totally happy with it.”
Originally signed by the Yankees as a fourth-round pick out of UNC back in 2009, Warren made his big league debut as a 23-year-old in 2012 — a spot start that proved to be his lone MLB appearance that season. He made the Opening Day roster the following year, however, and quickly established himself as a pivotal swingman providing quality, multi-inning relief out of then-manager Joe Girardi’s bullpen. Warren’s official rookie season resulted in 77 innings of 3.39 ERA ball; he made two starts, finished 11 games and picked up his first Major League win, save and hold along the way, foreshadowing the jack-of-all-trades approach to pitching that he’d embody throughout his career.
Warren worked as a setup man for the Yankees in 2014, tallying 23 holds and saving three games while pitching to a sharp 2.97 ERA in 78 2/3 innings. He stepped into the rotation for part of the 2015 season and did so almost seamlessly, starting 17 games (plus another 26 relief appearances) and working to a 3.29 ERA over the life of a career-high 131 2/3 frames. His early Yankees work caught the attention of the Cubs, who acquired him that offseason in a trade that sent Starlin Castro to the Bronx.
Warren’s time with the Cubs in 2016 went poorly and proved to be short-lived, as he was knocked around for a 5.91 ERA. As the trade deadline approached, the Cubs, then hoping to bolster the roster for a World Series push (an endeavor that ultimately proved successful) quickly traded Warren … back to the Yankees, as one of four players in a package that shipped Aroldis Chapman to Chicago. Warren almost immediately righted the ship in his return to the Bronx, and he went on to have strong performances with the Yankees in both 2017 and 2018 before being traded to the Mariners, where he had a nice finish to his 2018 campaign.
Upon reaching free agency, Warren signed with the Padres, but his time in San Diego was marred by injury. After just 25 appearances, the right-hander landed on the injured list with an arm issue that ultimately proved to be a ligament tear in his pitching elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery that year, rehabbed in 2020 and eventually made his way back to the mound for a third stint with the Yankees organization — this time with their Triple-A affiliate in 2021.
Though Warren posted solid results in Scranton that season — 3.59 ERA in 57 2/3 innings — he didn’t receive a call to the big leagues. Warren told Hoch that “the velocity never came back like I wanted it to.” That season proved to be the final chapter in his playing career, as Warren didn’t suit up for the 2022 campaign and now, at 35 years old, doesn’t appear to be contemplating a comeback.
Warren’s career draws to an official close with a 3.53 ERA, a 20.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate, a 30-24 record, 57 holds and six saves over the course of 492 1/3 innings. He pitched for four different big league clubs, but fans will surely remember him as a versatile, quietly excellent member of the Yankees’ pitching staff who found success in just about every role asked of him. Baseball-Reference pegs his career earnings at approximately $11.5MM, and if Warren indeed plans to pursue potential coaching opportunities, there’ll surely be chances for him to add to that tally in the next phase of his career.
Yankee fans will want to check out the entire clip of Hoch’s chat with Warren, as he talks briefly about his favorite moments in pinstripes and notes that with so many great teammates over the years, “it’s just nice to be remembered” by fans with whom he interacts. That humble mentality undersells the right-hander’s importance to the Yankees’ staff during his run with the club, and it seems quite safe to say that their fans in particular will have plenty of fond memories Warren’s time in the Bronx. Best wishes to Warren and his family in whatever’s next, and congratulations on a very fine career.
Details On 2022 Team Payrolls
The Mets had the sport’s highest competitive balance tax payroll in 2022, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. For CBT purposes, New York’s final tally checked in at $299.8MM. According to the report, that was around $2MM higher than the 2015 Dodgers’ $297.9MM mark that had stood as the previous spending record.
New York is responsible for a $30.8MM tax bill, the second-largest tally in the majors, after paying the tax for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers will foot the highest tax payment at $32.4MM, Blum writes. While Los Angeles’ $293.3MM CBT payroll trailed that of the Mets, the Dodgers were subject to higher penalties as a payor for a second consecutive season.
The Mets are sure to shatter their own record this coming season, as they’re currently projected for a tax number north of $368MM. The Dodgers have trimmed spending, reportedly in hopes of resetting their tax status this year in preparation for a more active offseason next winter. They’re narrowly above the lowest CBT threshold at the moment. Roster Resource forecasts the Dodgers at approximately $238MM, around $5MM north of this year’s $233MM base threshold.
As the Associated Press first reported last September, six teams went over the CBT mark in 2022. Blum reports today the specifics of the payments owed by the Yankees ($9.7MM), Phillies ($2.9MM), Padres ($1.5MM as a second-time payor) and Red Sox ($1.2MM). The final three figures, in particular, are very modest expenditures relative to club payrolls. Nevertheless, the decision to narrowly surpass the threshold is significant in that it raises penalties for payments in future seasons and alters teams’ compensation for signing or losing qualified free agents. The Padres and Phillies surely don’t have regrets after each posted one of the best years in recent franchise history, but the decision didn’t translate to success in the Red Sox’s case. Blum writes that the tax money will be paid to MLB by the end of this week.
A team’s CBT number is determined by the average annual value of a club’s commitments plus player benefits and their contributions to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The CBT figure isn’t a match for an organization’s actual player payroll in a given season. Blum reports each club’s final raw payroll figure as well, with the Mets again fronting the pack at roughly $274.9MM. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Blue Jays filled out the top ten.
On the other side, the A’s had the lowest payroll at approximately $49MM. The bottom 10 was rounded out by the Orioles, Pirates, Guardians, Marlins, Royals, Rays, D-Backs, Reds and Mariners. Full team data is available at the AP link.
David Phelps Announces Retirement
Right-hander David Phelps is retiring, he announced this evening through his agents at Wasserman (Twitter link). Phelps thanked his former teammates, coaches, medical staff, agency and family as well as all the organizations for which he played in a lengthy statement.
A Notre Dame product, Phelps cracked the professional ranks a 14th-round selection of the Yankees in 2008. A few seasons of strong minor league performance garnered him some prospect attention as a potential back-end starter. He reached the big leagues for the first time in April 2012, kicking off a rookie season in which he’d post a 3.34 ERA through 99 2/3 innings. Phelps also pitched three times for New York that postseason, logging 3 1/3 innings in what would prove his only career playoff action.
Phelps started 11 of 33 outings for New York that year and held a similar swing role for the next couple seasons. For the first three seasons of his career, he’d toss 299 1/3 innings with the Yankees over 87 appearances (40 starts). He posted a cumulative 4.21 ERA while holding opponents to a .251/.330/.399 slash. Over the 2014-15 offseason, New York dealt Phelps and infielder Martín Prado to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and then Low-A pitcher Domingo Germán, who’s still a Yankee more than eight years later.
During his first season with the Fish, Phelps remained primarily a rotation member. He started 19 of 23 outings, working to a 4.50 ERA. By his second season in South Florida, he’d moved almost exclusively to relief. That kicked off a second act as a generally reliable bullpen arm. Phelps posted a 2.28 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout percentage over 86 2/3 innings in 2016. After throwing another 47 frames with a 3.45 ERA in the next season’s first half, he changed organizations for a second time.
The Mariners acquired Phelps in a deadline deal that sent four prospects to Miami. Three of those players never reached the big leagues, but the Marlins’ acquisition of then High-A righty Pablo López turned out exceptionally well. The trade wasn’t especially successful for the Mariners, as Phelps pitched just 10 times before suffering an injury to his throwing elbow. He first underwent surgery to remove bone chips from the joint, then unfortunately required a Tommy John reconstruction that cost him the entire 2018 campaign.
Phelps hit free agency for the first time that offseason, landing with the Blue Jays on a buy-low $2.5MM pact. Once he returned to health, he proved a single middle-innings option for Toronto. Phelps performed well in 17 appearances before being traded to the Cubs at the deadline for Tom Hatch. He had a fine second half before again hitting free agency when Chicago declined a club option for 2020.
The past three seasons have seen the Missouri native continue to bounce around the league. He signed a one-year guarantee with Milwaukee going into 2020 and was dealt to the Phillies for a trio of minor league pitchers at the deadline. Phelps was hit hard in his limited time with Philadelphia, leading the club to decline an option. He returned to Toronto on a one-year deal over the offseason and got off to a brilliant start through mid-May.
Injuries again intervened, though, as Phelps suffered a rupture of his right lat. That required season-ending surgery, one which Phelps acknowledged he initially believed would end his career. He was fortunately able to rehab and got another shot on a minor league deal with Toronto last offseason. He cracked the MLB roster out of camp for what’d be his third season as a Blue Jay.
Phelps would conclude his career with a flourish. He stayed healthy all year, a significant accomplishment in its own right given the injury he’d suffered the season before. Phelps posted his best numbers since his Miami days, providing the Jays 63 2/3 innings of 2.83 ERA ball through 65 appearances. That’d quite likely have earned him another MLB contract this winter if he wanted to return for an 11th season. Phelps indicated he’d known by the end of last season he was finished playing, however.
He spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks, including the past 10 years at the MLB level. Over 682 2/3 career frames, he posted a 3.80 ERA while striking out 22.9% of opposing hitters. In addition to his 67 starts, he finished out 45 games (including seven saves). Phelps held 78 leads as a middle reliever or setup option, suiting up for seven organizations. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings a hair above $15MM. MLBTR congratulates Phelps on a long and accomplished career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.
Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023
Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.
As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America‘s Ben Badler and MLB.com‘s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:
- Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
- Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
- Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
- Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
- Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
- Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
- Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:
- Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM) [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
- Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM) [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
- Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM) [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
- Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM) [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
- Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM) [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
- Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM) [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
- Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM) [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]
Frankie Montas Expected To Miss First Month Of Season
The Yankees are expected to be without starter Frankie Montas for the first month of the season as he deals with shoulder inflammation, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Montas is about 8-10 weeks behind in his off-season training. Montas and the Yankees avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $7.5MM contract for 2023, a number which Heyman notes would have been higher were it not for the shoulder concerns.
While there’s no indication that any sort of surgery is on the cards for Montas, there’s nonetheless a fair degree of concern here, particularly given Montas struggled down the stretch last summer and ultimately went on the IL with shoulder inflammation to finish the season. The Yankees activated him ahead of the ALCS, and he pitched one inning of relief in that series.
Montas, 30 in March, was one of New York’s big deadline additions last summer, but he struggled mightily after coming over from Oakland. He’d been a highly effective starter on the rebuilding A’s, working to a 3.18 ERA over 104 2/3 innings (19 starts) for Oakland. That came with strong peripherals, as Montas walked just 6.6% of batters while maintaining an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate.
It was a different story in pinstripes though, as Montas was rocked for six earned runs in his debut against the Cardinals and finished with a 6.35 ERA across eight starts with the Yankees. Most notably, Montas saw his strikeout rate plummet to 17.8%, while also experiencing an uptick in walks from earlier in the season.
Prior to joining the Yankees, Montas had been an ever-reliable starter in Oakland. Across 401 innings between 2018-21 he worked to a 3.57 ERA, maintaining strong walk and strikeout rates. That also included a difficult pandemic-shortened season where Montas struggled, like many major league players, to the tune of a 5.60 ERA over 11 starts.
With a number of quality seasons under his belt, and with one-and-a-half seasons of team control remaining, Montas was one of the most sought-after trade targets last summer. The A’s, in the midst of a rebuild, were happy to take offers, and wound up agreeing to a deal with the Yankees, acquiring Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Luis Medina and Cooper Bowman for Montas and reliever Lou Trivino.
For the Yankees part, they saw Montas as an effective starter who could deepen their rotation ahead of a playoff run, and also contribute in 2023. While a May return for Montas still affords him plenty of time to be a major contributor to the Yankees in 2023, it is concerning that he doesn’t seem to have been able to shake the shoulder problems, and there would have to be fears of this lasting deeper into the season.
For now, the Yankees rotation is still in solid shape. They have a formidable front four of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt are the obvious internal candidates to handle Montas’ starts in the meantime. German worked to a 3.61 ERA over 72 1/3 innings last season, while Schmidt was used largely as a reliever in the big leagues, working to a 3.12 ERA over 29 appearances. He made eight starts at Triple-A in 2022, pitching to a 3.27 ERA in that time.
Latest On The Yankees’ Left Field Plans
The Yankees’ left field conundrum has been an ongoing topic of the off-season as the team mulls over whether or not to bring in someone through the trade market or free agency, or stick with their internal options.
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, the team’s preferred outcome would have been to retain Andrew Benintendi, but he wound up signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the White Sox. He reports that the Yankees would have gone to five years to get Benintendi were it not for the fact they’d signed starter Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162MM pact. Sherman also reports that the team was “very involved” in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Daulton Varsho before they ultimately shifted him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno.
The biggest available name the team has been connected to is Bryan Reynolds. He has requested a trade out of Pittsburgh, but it seems the Bucs have set a high asking price on their star outfielder and haven’t budged on that front. Nonetheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently reported that the Yankees were one of the teams “consistently” interested in acquiring Reynolds. As a switch-hitter with three-years of team control remaining he’d certainly fit on their roster, but the Yankees may be reluctant to part with top prospects such as Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to get a deal done.
It’s slim pickings on the free agent market at this point, but Sherman does note that the team has had some interest in Jurickson Profar. The switch-hitter was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Padres in 2022 and would be a solid option to upgrade their outfield stocks. Yet Oswaldo Cabrera was worth 1.5 fWAR in 44 games and Aaron Hicks the same in 130 games, so the team may not see Profar as enough of a needle-mover to commit to the multi-year deal he likely seeks. The same could be said of another left-handed bat in David Peralta, but it doesn’t appear there’s been much interest from the Yankees anyway.
Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reported in a recent mailbag that the team could forego external options and let Hicks and Cabrera battle it out in spring training for the starting job. While it isn’t the most exciting option for Yankees fans, there is some sense in it. The Yankees roster is strong enough to be in a good spot for the first three months of the season without an upgrade in left, so the team could see if Hicks can rebound or Cabrera can sustain his small sample of work over a longer period, before deciding whether or not to seek an external upgrade at the trade deadline.
Hicks had plenty of shortcomings in 2022, but he still walked at a strong 13.7% clip and if he can regain even a little bit of the power he’s showed in the past he could still be reasonably productive player. Cabrera was exceptional in the field last year, earning 9 Defensive Runs Saved in 278 2/3 outfield innings, while posting a 111 wRC+ at the plate. He also struggled mightily in the playoffs, going 2-for-28 with 12 strikeouts. In any event, he may have more value to the Yankees as someone who can play all over the field rather than in a fixed position, allowing the Yankees to spell some of their veterans on a more regular basis.
Estevan Florial is the other internal option that the Yankees will need to make a decision on. A toolsy former top-100 prospect, Florial has found opportunities few and far between over the past three seasons (just 63 plate appearances) but is out of options so can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. He’s hit well at Triple-A and the Yankees could give him an extended run in the majors, but Sherman opines that the Yankees could trade him prior to the season opener. While his trade value won’t be particularly high anymore, plenty of teams – particularly rebuilding ones – would surely like to give him an extended opportunity in the big leagues to see if they can tap into his potential.
The Yankees have also been aggressive in recent weeks in stocking up on outfield depth in the minors. They’ve signed Willie Calhoun, Billy McKinney and Rafael Ortega to minor league deals, and Sherman notes they checked in on Kole Calhoun as well. Calhoun and McKinney look like depth pieces, but Ortega is an interesting add. He had a 122 wRC+ for the Cubs over 330 plate appearances in 2021, and while it dropped back to 96 in 2022 he does look to be a possible option for the Yankees. As a left-handed pull hitter, he could benefit from playing regularly in Yankee Stadium as well, so a strong spring could see him force his way into the team’s plans at the big league level.
Pitching Notes: Hendricks, Heuer, King
The Cubs are hoping to be able to have veteran starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks ready for opening day, but it seems the team won’t be rushing him back, according to a report from Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hendricks ended the season on the injured list rehabbing a capsular tear in his shoulder that limited him to just 84 innings in 2022.
Per reports at the end of October, Hendricks was a bit behind in his throwing schedule, having hoped to start playing catch by the end of the 2022 season. Instead, that target was shifted to November.
Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy provided an update to Lee, saying Hendricks is on a regimented throwing program and is playing catch off flat ground. Obviously there’s still a fair bit of rehab to go between that and pitching in baseball games, but it seems the Cubs are still hopeful he can be a part of the opening day roster.
“I’m so overly focused on getting Kyle back to being the best version of himself and not rushing it, not pushing it. We all know what Kyle can do when he feels great, when he’s healthy, when he’s locked in,” Hottovy told Lee.
The 16 starts Hendricks made in 2022 was the fewest he’d made in a season since 2014 (excluding the 2020 campaign). While his output has dropped back a bit in recent years, he’s still been a valuable starter over the past few seasons for Chicago, working to a 4.78 ERA over 265 1/3 innings over 2021-22.
The Cubs currently have him penciled into a rotation that also features veterans Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Left-hander Justin Steele took a step forward in 2022 and looks set to be the fifth option in that group. That makes for a solid five-man rotation, yet the Cubs have some good options should Hendricks not be ready for the season as well. Adrian Sampson had some success in 19 starts last season, and could get a look, while Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are all young options who’ve done well in their brief time in the majors.
In the bullpen, the Cubs are counting on the return of Codi Heuer at some stage. Heuer had Tommy John surgery in spring training last year, but Lee’s reports he remains on track for a return to the mound sometime in late-June or early-July. After coming over to the Cubs in a cross-town trade with the White Sox that included Nick Madrigal and Craig Kimbrel, Heuer tossed 28 2/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball in relief. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but induces a lot of soft contact and with a strong Cubs defense behind him could do well. Heuer is projected for a modest raise to $800K through his first year of arbitration (courtesy of Matt Swartz’ projections) and is under team control for another three seasons.
Sticking with injured relievers, the Yankees bullpen was dealt a significant blow when Michael King went down with a fractured elbow. King had tossed 51 innings of 2.29 ERA ball, and had blossomed into a dominant multi-inning reliever for the Yankees. Chris Kirscher of The Athletic reports that King may not be ready for opening day, calling it a “tad optimistic” to think he’ll be up to speed for the first game of the season. In any event, Kirschner adds that King has begun his throwing program and is “progressing well”, so there doesn’t seem to be much concern that King is at risk of any major setback in his recovery.
Rangers Interested In Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds has been the subject of trade rumors for quite some time, given that he’s been a strong performer on a rebuilding Pirates club. Plenty of teams around the league have reportedly expressed an interest in his services, including the Yankees, Blue Jays, Marlins, Red Sox, Braves, Rockies and Mariners. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds the Rangers to the list, reporting that acquiring Reynolds is one avenue they’re considering in their pursuit of outfield upgrades.
The interest of the Rangers, and all the other clubs, is perfectly understandable given how Reynolds has performed thus far in his career. He debuted in 2019, hitting 16 home runs and batting .314/.377/.503 for a wRC+ of 130. He struggled badly in the shortened 2020 season but was back in form over the past two campaigns. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 51 homers and stole 12 bases while walking in 10.4% of his plate appearances and striking out in just 20.6% of them. He produced a slash line of .282/.368/.492 over those campaigns for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That mark put him in the top 25 among all qualified hitters in that stretch, as was his 9.0 wins above replacement from FanGraphs.
Despite the high amount of interest around the league, the Bucs have yet to put a deal together with many sources highlighting their asking price as being very high. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on the Reynolds matter today and reiterates that framing, with one source characterizing Pittsburgh’s asks as “unrealistic.” Despite the apparently sky high asking prices, Heyman reports that the Yankees are one of the teams that is “consistently” interested in Reynolds.
Of course, the Pirates are under no obligation to find a trade for Reynolds, even though he has reportedly requested one. He’s not slated to reach free agency until after the 2025 campaign and the club could plausibly return to contention in that window. If no one blows them away with a monumental offer, they can simply hang onto Reynolds as their rebuild progresses.
There’s also the possibility of an extension, though there doesn’t seem to be a lot of optimism in that department at the moment. Recent reporting had indicated that the two sides had been about $50MM apart in their negotiations, with Heyman providing some more details on those talks today. He says the club offered $75MM over six years while Reynolds and his representatives were asking for something a bit lower than the eight-year, $168MM extension Matt Olson got from Atlanta.
The Olson comparison is an interesting one, though not a perfect analogue. When Olson signed his extension in March of last year, he was two years away from free agency, one year closer than Reynolds is now. But from an on-field comparison, there’s some logic to it. Both players had a swoon in the 2020 season but had three strong campaigns around it. Olson’s four years from 2018 to 2021 resulted in a batting line of .254/.348/.501 and a wRC+ of 130. Reynolds, from 2019 to the present, had less power but a better batting average, leading to a slash line of .281/.361/.481 and a wRC+ of 126. Olson produced 12.8 fWAR against a 12.5 mark for Reynolds. Olson was about to turn 28 when his deal was signed, same as Reynolds now.
Given the similar level of production, it’s not surprising that Reynolds’ camp would set that Olson figure as a target. The one year difference in their timelines will limit Reynolds somewhat, but Heyman does report that their ask is indeed lower than that. How much lower isn’t known but it seems to be well beyond Pittsburgh’s current comfort zone. Their six-year offer would seem to take Reynolds through his age-33 season, while Reynolds seems to be trying to get another couple years and go through his age-35 season. That doesn’t mean that talks are necessarily doomed, as large gaps can sometimes be quickly overcome. Not too long ago, the Red Sox and Rafael Devers were reportedly about $100MM apart in their negotiations before the club decided to step up and meet his asking price.
For now, it seems Reynolds is destined to have his name pop up in trade rumors until a deal comes together, whether that’s a trade or an extension. The interest from the Rangers is quite sensible, since the top items on their to-do list this winter have been the rotation and the outfield. They addressed the rotation in a huge way by re-signing Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. The outfield, however, has yet to be addressed.
As things stand now, Adolis Garcia seems to have a lock on right field while Leody Taveras can provide a glove-first option in center. Left field, however, is far less certain with Josh Smith, Bubba Thompson, Brad Miller, Ezequiel Duran and Mark Mathias some of the options. Miller, Smith and Duran have each spent more time on the infield in their careers and are coming off subpar seasons at the plate. Mathias just came over from the Brewers in the Matt Bush trade and hit well down the stretch, but he’s also more of an infielder who can play the outfield in a pinch than an everyday option on the grass.
Thompson is arguably the most straightforward solution currently on the roster. He has excellent speed, having stolen 49 bases in the minors last year and another 18 in the majors. However, he strikes out a lot, including in 30.9% of his 181 major league plate appearances so far. That led to a .265/.302/.312 slash line and a 77 wRC+ despite a .389 batting average on balls in play.
It’s possible that one member of that group could take the job and run with it but it behooves the Rangers to look for upgrades if they plan on competing in 2023. The most appealing free agent outfielders have already signed, leaving AJ Pollock and David Peralta as some of the best names still available. Rosenthal adds that those are two of the names being considered by the Rangers alongside Reynolds.
Reynolds is certainly a more attractive option than those guys, especially for a Rangers club that’s starting to get near the luxury tax. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently $220MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That puts them within striking distance of the lowest tax threshold, which is $233MM this year. Reynolds is going to be making $6.75MM this year as part of the two-year deal he signed with the Bucs last year, with two further arbitration trips to come.
Adding that kind of salary to their books would allow the Rangers to make a huge outfield upgrade while staying under the tax for now. Of course, that combination of low salary and high talent is what makes him so appealing as a trade candidate and why the Pirates are asking for the moon in return. The Rangers have shown plenty of willingness to hand out huge free agent deals over the past couple of years but whether they would have appetite for parting with premium prospects in order to upgrade the roster is another question.
Adding someone like Pollock or Peralta likely would also likely allow the Rangers to stay under the tax, as they aren’t expected to fetch huge salaries. However, their expected impact is certainly beneath that of Reynolds. Pollock, 35, hit .245/.292/.389 last year for a wRC+ of 92. Peralta, also 35, had a strong first half with the Diamondbacks but wilted after a trade to the Rays, hitting .255/.317/.335 for a wRC+ of 91.
Blue Jays Claim Junior Fernández From Yankees
The Blue Jays have claimed right-hander Junior Fernández off waivers from the Yankees, according to announcements from both clubs. Fernandez had been designated for assignment last month.
Fernandez, 26 in March, has spent most of his career as a Cardinal thus far, making his major league debut with them in 2019. He struggled to a 6.62 ERA over 34 appearances in the 2019-2021 stretch, striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in that time while walking 13.8% of them. His results in 2022 were a bit better, as he posted a 2.93 ERA with the Cards, but still only punching out 17.1% of batters and giving free passes to 11.4% of them.
2022 was the last option year for Fernandez, meaning he could no longer be easily shuffled between the majors and minors going forward. Coupled with the disappointing results, that seemed to bump him out of the plans in St. Louis, as they designated him for assignment in September. The Pirates claimed him and put him into three games down the stretch before sending him into DFA limbo again.
Despite the tepid results, there are reasons that the Yankees claimed him from the Pirates in November and the Jays have now claimed him from the Yanks. He averaged 98.8 mph on his four-seamer this year and 98.7 mph on his sinker. Per Statcast, that puts his velocity in the 98th percentile among qualified pitchers. He’s been better at getting punchouts in the minors but without improved results overall. Over the past two years, he’s thrown 58 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.22 ERA, despite striking out 27.1% of batters faced. His control issues have also been present in the minors, as he walked 10.4% of Triple-A hitters faced in that two-year span.
The Jays seem to be willing to take a shot on the high-octane stuff and will see if they can find a way to harness it. If they succeed in that regard, they can retain Fernández for the foreseeable future, since he’s yet to crack the two-year mark in terms of major league service time.
Yankees Hire Omar Minaya As Senior Advisor To Baseball Operations
The Yankees announced Thursday that former Mets and Expos general manager Omar Minaya has been hired as a senior advisor to their baseball operations department. It’s the second time this week that the Yanks have added a respected, former GM with scouting roots to their front office in an advisory capacity. Longtime Giants GM Brian Sabean was hired in a similar role on Tuesday.
The 64-year-old Minaya served as the general manager in Montreal from 2002-04 before being hired by the Mets (where he’d previously worked as an assistant GM) as the general manager in Queens. He held that role from 2005-10 before being replaced by Sandy Alderson. Minaya would go on to spend five years as the vice president of baseball operations with the Padres, where he was also part of an interim GM committee in 2014 when the Padres dismissed Josh Byrnes midseason and waited until after the year to tab current president of baseball ops A.J. Preller as his replacement. Minaya served as the Padres’ point person for trade-related matters in the summer of 2014.
Minaya has spent nearly 40 years in baseball operations, holding various scouting and executive roles with the Rangers, Mets, Expos, Padres and in the league’s central office. The YES Network’s Jack Curry, who first reported that the Yankees were set to announce the hiring of Minaya, tweets that the addition of veteran execs like Minaya and Sabean is part of an effort by the Yankees to create more of a balance between traditional scouting wisdom and more modern, data-driven approaches to player evaluation.