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The Opener: Scherzer, Giolito, Tigers

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As the start of the regular season gets closer, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Scherzer dealing with thumb soreness:

Veteran right-hander Max Scherzer is dealing with a bout of soreness in his right thumb, according to Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. Manager John Schneider called the Blue Jays’ decision to scratch Scherzer from his upcoming start tomorrow is the club “just being extra careful.” Scherzer missed time in 2024 with a litany of injuries, one of which was a nerve issue in his right arm that spanned his thumb to his triceps. If this latest thumb/nerve issue proves to be more serious, Toronto could call upon right-hander Yariel Rodriguez to step into the rotation from the bullpen or carry Jake Bloss, who is currently ticketed for Triple-A, on the big league roster to open the season.

2. Red Sox, Giolito await MRI results:

The Red Sox rotation has been tried by injuries this spring, with Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello both already poised to start the season on the injured list. It’s possible another starting pitching option will join them, as right-hander Lucas Giolito is scheduled for an MRI after leaving yesterday’s game due to hamstring tightness. If the issue is severe enough to keep Giolito off the Opening Day roster, the Red Sox have a number of viable depth options to help cover for the absence. Quinn Priester might already be lined up to take Bello’s spot already, but other options on the 40-man roster incclude Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, and Josh Winckowski.

3. How will the Tigers fill out their outfield?

The Tigers were expected to welcome outfielder Wenceel Perez back into the lineup today after he was sidelined by a back issue last week, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that Perez is absent from today’s Grapefruit League lineup and is not expected to play. With Matt Vierling and potentially Parker Meadows both slated to start the season on the injured list, Perez has stood out as a center field option for the Tigers to open the season. If he’s also ticketed for a late start to the 2025 campaign, however, the Tigers may need to get creative in filling out their outfield mix.

Riley Greene was ticketed for everyday duties in left field but could slide over to center if needed. Kerry Carpenter could spend more time in right field rather than serving as a regular DH. Zach McKinstry and Andy Ibanez both have at least some outfield experience, but it seems likely the club could benefit from another outfielder joining the roster like Justyn-Henry Malloy or perhaps even non-roster invitee Jahmai Jones. If Carpenter plays more in the outfield instead of filling the DH slot in the lineup, that could also create an avenue for Spencer Torkelson to get back into the lineup after losing the first base job to Colt Keith.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sought $500MM Net Present Value In Extension Talks

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Last week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told ESPN that his asking price in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly identify his exact demand, though he noted he was looking for a 14-plus year deal.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic provides more specifics, reporting that Guerrero wanted a net present value of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That could have taken the form of an even $500MM+ without deferrals or a deferred deal with a loftier overall guarantee that would still have pushed the NPV to half a billion dollars. A hypothetical 14-year extension worth $500MM would come with an approximate $35.7MM annual value and would run through Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it began this year).

The deferrals were evidently a sticking point. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that Toronto offered a deal that was in the $500MM range overall but included deferred money. According to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the team’s offer was close to $450MM, suggesting they came in at the higher end of the range initially reported by The New York Post.

That would still have represented the third-largest guarantee in league history. Juan Soto easily holds the record at $765MM without deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued around $461MM and $438MM by the league and Players Association, respectively. Guerrero sought a number that would have placed him behind only Soto in net present value. His reported asking price was nowhere near Soto money, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it may be an outlier for a while. Still, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM higher (in NPV terms) than the Jays were willing to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t interested in continuing negotiations beyond the opening of Spring Training. He has left the door open to reconsidering but said at the start of camp that he anticipates testing free agency.

The Jays have at least expressed a willingness to stretch the budget beyond Guerrero’s asking price for star players. They were seemingly willing to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their precise offer to Soto isn’t clear but is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That shows they’re not entirely averse to this kind of signing, yet it’s also a fact that the largest contract in franchise history remains the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.

Toronto’s latest offer represents a significant jump from where they opened talks. Guerrero said over the offseason that the Jays’ offers before the Soto bidding were in the $340MM range. While the Soto price point didn’t make them willing to write a blank check for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above where they had been in terms of present value.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. At his best, he looks like one of the top five hitters in the game. He hasn’t quite maintained that level on an annual basis, though. He finished among the top six in MVP balloting in 2021 (finishing runner-up that year) and ’24. In the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 across nearly 1400 plate appearances. That’s still very good but not the kind of overwhelming numbers that’d force teams to essentially overlook questions about his defensive profile.

Assuming he gets to the market, Guerrero is likely to be the top free agent in the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a better overall player, but the Cubs outfielder will hit free agency at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The two-year age gap gives Guerrero the better chance to land a deal that stretches beyond a decade despite teams’ general reluctance to make extremely long commitments to first basemen.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs added star power in the Kyle Tucker trade, but otherwise made modest additions despite several other big swings.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $33.25MM
Total spending: $56.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Much like the previous winter with Marcus Stroman, this Cubs offseason kicked off with a pivotal player option decision that would affect their financial flexibility.  This time, Cody Bellinger elected to take the $27.5MM owed to him in 2025 in lieu of a $2.5MM buyout, which also preserves a $25MM option on 2026 with a $5MM buyout.  Bellinger's decision was not surprising, as he's now positioned himself to decline the '26 option having collected a total of $32.5MM for '25.

The Athletic's Patrick Mooney suggested a couple of times early in the offseason that the Cubs were seeking a starting pitcher who "could be trusted in a playoff game."  Nonetheless, it wasn't long before Mooney's colleague Sahadev Sharma wrote that "the top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out" for the club.  Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes would go on to sign contracts ranging from $182-218MM (though some included deferred money), and the Cubs were seemingly never a factor on them due to what I assume are philosophical objections to five-plus year commitments to thirty-something-aged free agent starters.

Instead, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made a pre-Winter Meetings strike for 34-year-old southpaw Matthew Boyd.  Boyd was available on a two-year contract because of his age and injury history.  After totaling 355 2/3 innings for the 2018-19 Tigers, Boyd has not reached 80 innings in a season since.

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Lucas Giolito Headed For MRI With Hamstring Tightness

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Lucas Giolito left Tuesday’s start after one inning with left hamstring tightness. Manager Alex Cora told the Boston beat that Giolito will head for an MRI on Wednesday (relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). The team doesn’t seem overly concerned, but it’s a situation worth monitoring.

Cora confirmed this morning that Brayan Bello will begin the season on the injured list after shoulder soreness delayed his ramp-up. He’ll join Kutter Crawford, who has yet to pitch this spring because of right knee soreness that dates back to last April. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic writes that the timeline on Crawford remains uncertain. Cora indicated that while Crawford is making incremental progress, he isn’t close to even throwing a live batting practice session.

The Sox are slated for a season-opening top four of Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler and Giolito. Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Cooper Criswell are in the mix for the final rotation spot. If Giolito’s hamstring proves problematic, that’d likely press two of Fitts, Priester and Criswell into the starting five. The Sox are also building up non-roster invitee Michael Fulmer as a potential starter.

Giolito is still looking to make his Red Sox debut. He sustained a UCL tear in last year’s Spring Training and required internal brace surgery. Hamstring tightness is obviously less concerning than if Giolito had experienced any kind of renewed elbow discomfort. Still, the team won’t know until the imaging comes back whether there’s a risk of a season-opening IL stint.

Willie Calhoun, Carl Edwards Jr. Sign In Mexican League

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The Tigers de Quintana Roo in the Mexican League have recently added a pair of former big leaguers. Designated hitter Willie Calhoun signed with the team tonight, according to an MiLB.com article. The team also announced on social media last night they’re bringing in reliever Carl Edwards Jr.

Calhoun and Edwards each appeared in the majors last season. The lefty-hitting Calhoun played in 68 games for the Angels. He hit .245/.315/.380 with five homers through 254 plate appearances. That brings his career batting line to .241/.303/.399 in more than 1300 trips to the dish. That’s underwhelming for a player whose game is built entirely around his bat. Calhoun can occasionally play at first base or in the corner outfield, but he’s close to a full-time DH.

Edwards, a 33-year-old reliever, pitched in one game for the Padres last year. He issued two walks and allowed a hit without recording an out. That qualified for the lanky righty’s 10th consecutive season getting some big league action. Edwards turned in decent results in middle relief with the Cubs and Nationals earlier in his career. He owns a 3.54 ERA across 280 big league innings. Edwards spent most of last season in the minors, where he combined for a 4.11 ERA in 70 innings between the Cubs’ and Padres’ systems.

Cubs Leave Keegan Thompson Off Tokyo Series Travel Roster

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The Cubs are not carrying reliever Keegan Thompson among the 31 players on their Tokyo Series travel roster, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Thompson is out of options and needs to be on the MLB team or removed from the 40-man roster. While the Cubs don’t need to make any transactions until next Tuesday’s regular season opener, it’s likely they’ll designate Thompson for assignment at that point.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged that Thompson has seemingly been squeezed out of the bullpen. “It is hard to evaluate Spring Training, but ultimately, that was how we made the decision,” he told Lee. “I thought Keegan threw well here, but ultimately, we felt like some guys were better. Realistically, we knew coming into camp that we’d have to make some hard decisions.”

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, the Cubs are operating with limited roster flexibility in their bullpen. Thompson is one of six relievers on the 40-man who can’t be sent to the minors either because of their service time or out-of-options status. Colin Rea would be a seventh such reliever if he doesn’t win the fifth starter job and settles into long relief.

Non-roster invitee Brad Keller has generated positive buzz in camp. He cracked the travel roster, and while that doesn’t inherently mean he’ll make the team, the Cubs appear to be leaning towards selecting his contract. Keller, who would otherwise be able to retest free agency at the end of Spring Training, also has sufficient service time to refuse a minor league assignment once he’s on the 40-man.

The Cubs can’t accommodate all those out-of-options pitchers. They’re certainly not going to send down Porter Hodge. There’s a decent chance they’ll want to carry Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan as well. Chicago probably also needs to open two 40-man roster spots by next week. They’d need to put Keller on the 40-man if he makes the team. Top prospect Matt Shaw isn’t on the 40-man either. The Cubs haven’t officially declared that he’ll be called up, but it’s unlikely they’d have carried him on the travel roster if he weren’t going to play.

That combination of factors is likely to push Thompson off the roster. The former third-round pick hasn’t pitched much this spring. He allowed three runs on a trio of solo homers over 4 2/3 innings. Thompson worked to a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings last season. He fanned 28.3% of opponents but walked an alarming 14.2% of batters faced.

Thompson and the Cubs avoided arbitration on an $850K deal in November. If he is designated for assignment, Chicago would have five days to attempt to line up a trade or place him on waivers. With three years of arbitration control and a salary marginally above the league minimum, there’s a decent chance he’d draw interest from another team.

Poll: The Yankees’ Priorities

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It’s been a tough spring for the Yankees on the injury front. The club has faced a number of noteworthy injuries, with the latest blow being the loss of veteran ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2025 season, while rotation-mate Luis Gil is set to miss a couple of months after suffering a lat strain. The lineup has been impacted as well, with slugger Giancarlo Stanton poised to miss significant time due to elbow issues while likely starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu has been sidelined by a calf strain.

Each of those injuries have prompted varying levels of speculations that the club could look to bring in some help, but the Yankees are seemingly facing fairly strict budget limits. RosterResource projects them for a $285MM payroll. The Yanks have shown little interest in adding payroll, and their projected $305MM competitive balance tax number is already above the $301MM top tax threshold. It would be fairly difficult to make lineup and rotation additions with limited budget space and a limited supply available to them. General manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the Yankees making a notable addition, citing the current tax situation as an obstacle.

Perhaps the most obvious choice for an upgrade would be the starting rotation. The Yankees are already down at least one starter for the entire 2025 season, and while Marcus Stroman can step into the rotation as a #5 starter relatively seamlessly, the depth beyond him gets shakier. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 6.18 ERA over his past two seasons, while prospect Will Warren struggled to a 10.32 ERA in his big league debut last year with an ERA near 6.00 at Triple-A. A steadier depth arm like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson would make plenty of sense for a rotation that has multiple pitchers with notable injury histories.

The Yankees do have plenty of high-end talent in the rotation that could help to make up for the lack of depth. Max Fried is a legitimate No. 1 starter in his own right. Carlos Rodon is just two seasons removed from earning Cy Young votes. Clarke Schmidt posted a sterling 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year. With the reigning AL Rookie of the Year set to join the rotation at some point this year, perhaps the Yankees’ needs are more acute in the lineup.

The idea of filling Stanton’s spot in the lineup is made more intriguing by the presence of a comparable veteran lingering in free agenct. J.D. Martinez remains on the market, and the two sluggers have produced nearly identical offensive value over the past five years: Stanton has slashed .231/.313/.473 with a 117 wRC+, while Martinez has hit .263/.330/.477 with a wRC+ of 118. Even with Martinez coming off a relative down season and a particularly tough second half with the Mets last year, it’s easy to see why having Martinez fill in for Stanton could be very appealing. The Yankees have had at least “some contact” with Martinez since Stanton was sidelined.

Then again, it’s fair to argue that Stanton is the easiest of the injured Yankees to replace in-house. Ben Rice has impressed during Spring Training and was already in the conversation for the backup catcher job. He could be tabbed as a potential DH option against right-handed hitters. Another solution would be giving regulars more rest by playing them at DH on occasion. If the club places Trent Grisham in center field for a day rather than Cody Bellinger, Stanton’s injury could let them give Bellinger a partial rest day at DH or have him back up any of Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, or even Paul Goldschmidt so they could get a rest day of their own.

Third base has also been a question throughout camp. LeMahieu seems like he’ll have a shorter absence than Stanton, but even coming off a down season, his injury thins out the infield options. A mix of LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera always looked fairly uninspiring. An MLBTR poll late last month suggested that a plurality of respondents believed the club’s primary third baseman would be someone not yet in the organization.

The third base market — and second base market, if Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays third instead — has largely been picked over, however. The Yankees were connected to infield options like Jose Iglesias and Jorge Polanco at points throughout the offseason and into Spring Training, but both veterans have since landed elsewhere. Nolan Arenado is known to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees, but it’s unlikely New York would be willing to take on his contract. Veteran Whit Merrifield remains available in free agency but isn’t a clear upgrade coming off a downturn in production at the plate. Perhaps upcoming opt-out opportunities for non-roster veterans and players made available on waivers due to roster crunches when Opening Day draws near will present a more viable solution.

How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees should address their injury-created holes? Will the club sign/acquire a starter to deepen its oft-injured rotation mix? Or could the Yankees instead turn to the lineup and either replace Stanton at DH or look for an upgrade to the infield? Have your say in the poll below:

Dodgers Option Hyeseong Kim

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The Dodgers optioned infielder Hyeseong Kim and right-hander Bobby Miller this evening. They also reassigned non-roster invitees Giovanny Gallegos, Eddie Rosario, David Bote, Michael Chavis and top prospect Dalton Rushing to minor league camp.

Additionally, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Dustin May will open the season as the fifth starter as Tony Gonsolin is ticketed for an injured list stint. Manager Dave Roberts told Dodgers Territory yesterday that was likely to be the case, as Gonsolin recently tweaked his back while lifting weights.

Kim entered camp as the favorite for the second base job. The Dodgers signed the lefty-hitting infielder to a three-year deal that guaranteed $12.5MM. While that’s a relatively modest investment, L.A. traded Gavin Lux to Cincinnati a few days later. That seemingly opened the path for Kim to step in at the keystone, but the Dodgers evidently have some concerns about how his bat will translate to open the season.

Offensive impact has been the question dating back to Kim’s time in Korea. Evaluators credit him as a good baserunner and plus defender. He hit .304 over eight KBO seasons but was never much of a power threat. Last season’s 11 home runs represented a career high. The 26-year-old infielder struck out 10 times in 31 plate appearances during his first MLB camp. He hit .222 with one homer in 14 spring games.

Starting Kim in the minors provides Roberts some flexibility at second base. The Dodgers could turn to any of Miguel Rojas, Enrique Hernández or Chris Taylor — all of whom would otherwise play utility roles. Alternatively, they could bring Tommy Edman back in from center field to play second. That’d open center field for Andy Pages or James Outman, but neither of them have had especially impressive Spring Trainings.

The Gonsolin injury resolves L.A.’s biggest camp battle: the fifth starter competition between him and May. Both pitchers missed all of last season rehabbing surgeries. Gonsolin underwent a 2023 Tommy John procedure. May required a flexor repair in ’23 and needed to undergo emergency esophageal surgery last summer after suffering a life-threatening throat tear while eating. His season debut will be his first major league appearance in nearly two years.

May rounds out what will be a five-man rotation for the time being. Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell will hold the top four rotation spots. Yamamoto and Sasaki are respectively tabbed for Games 1 and 2 during next week’s Tokyo Series matchup against the Cubs.

Dodgers Sign Dave Roberts To Four-Year Extension

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The Dodgers announced the signing of manager Dave Roberts to a four-year extension that covers the 2026-29 seasons. The team did not confirm salary figures, but Roberts will reportedly be paid $32.4MM — an average annual value of $8.1MM. That surpasses the $8MM AAV on Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal with the Cubs.

The news doesn’t come as a shock. Clubs generally don’t like to have skippers in “lame duck” position, that is, managing on a deal that is about to expire. Reporting throughout the winter has suggested the Dodgers and Roberts were likely to work out a new deal prior to the start of the 2025 season. It was reported on Thursday that the two sides were making progress on a deal that would see Roberts surpass Counsell’s AAV. On Friday, Roberts referred to the talks as being on “the one-yard line”, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

Roberts has been at the helm for the Dodgers since November of 2015. The club was already in good overall position at that time, having just won three straight division titles under manager Don Mattingly, but with three straight deflating postseason losses. They lost the NLCS to the Cardinals in 2013 and then suffered quick NLDS defeats in the next two seasons.

Under Roberts, the regular season success has continued and the postseason record improved. They made it to the NLCS in the first season and the World Series in his second and third campaigns. The club lost the 2017 World Series to the Astros and the 2018 series to the Red Sox, both asterisk-marked campaigns for those winning clubs. The Dodgers suffered a quick NLDS exit in 2019 but hoisted the trophy in the shortened 2020 season. The next three seasons saw the club eliminated before the World Series, but they won it all again in 2024, getting Roberts his second ring in five years.

Roberts currently sports a managerial record of 851-506 in the regular season and 56-44 in the postseason, with the Dodgers getting to the playoffs in each season with him at the helm. Roberts has had some loaded rosters to work with but appears to be well-liked by players and other Dodger personnel.

Counsell left the Brewers after the 2023 season with the reported goal of improving the earning power of managers. Joe Torre had been able to secure an $8MM salary in his days with the Yankees but skipper salaries had seemingly stalled. Reportedly, Terry Francona was the highest-paid manager in 2023 with a $4.5MM salary. Counsell managed to get a five-year, $40MM deal from the Cubs, an AAV of $8MM. That seemingly set a baseline foundation, with Roberts able to negotiate his way just over that line. Earlier in the winter, Roberts said he was hopeful of getting a new deal done but wanted “to feel (his) value.”

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Roberts and the Dodgers had agreed to a new four-year deal worth slightly more than $8MM annually. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal would start in 2026. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the $32.4MM total.

2025 Trade Deadline To Be On July 31

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The 2025 trade deadline will be on Thursday, July 31st at 6pm Eastern/5pm Central. Joel Sherman of The New York Post was among those to relay the decision. That’s a slight change from last year’s deadline, which was July 30.

Traditionally, the trade deadline had always been on July 31. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the commissioner can choose a date between July 28 and August 3 for the deadline. This is mostly so that the league can avoid having the deadline occur when games are going on and players have to be removed in a “hug watch” scenario. If the deadline were to fall on a weekend, when there are many games all throughout the day, the chances of a player being dealt during an ongoing game would be higher.

The league has usually opted for a weekday with a lighter schedule. It was on August 1st in 2023 and July 30 last year, both of those dates being Tuesdays. This year, as mentioned, July 31st is a Thursday. There are only three games on the schedule for that date.

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